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Hope is NOT a Strategy
Understanding Our Decision Making Process’
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Why Examine the Human Brain and It’s Function???
All pilots are human
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All humans make mistakes (error)
Thus…we must stop treating “pilot error” as a dirty word
We all make errors…as aviation professionals we must closely examine
the root cause of the error to develop measures to inhibit replication
We need to understand that the human brain is designed to identify short
cuts and/or find an easier path to success.
11 March 2015
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SHORT-CUTS
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Perhaps a good example is that we can all read the following:
"Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in
waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist
and lsat ltteers be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you
can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not
raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe."
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SHORT-CUTS
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Mary’s Mother
Mary’s mother has 4 children: April, May, June, and ???
What is the 4th child's name?
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SHORT-CUTS
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Stroop Effect
Green Red Blue
Purple Blue Purple
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Blue Purple Red
Green Purple Green
The Stroop effect is the finding that naming the color of the first set of words is easier and quicker
than the second.
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Presentation Title runs here (go to Header & Footer to edit this text)
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Not Aviation Terms…But Rather Anatomy & Physiology
• Limbic System
• Neocortex
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• Gain Frame
• Loss Frame
• Hippocampus
• Amygdala
03 December 2014
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Often the Outcome of a Decision is Used to Determine the
“Goodness” of that Decision
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A Good Decision May Turn Out Good
Good
A Good Decision May Turn Out Bad
Good or Bad?
You turn down a flight due to forecasted weather below minimums…and
inexplicably the weather turns out much better.
A Bad Decision May Turn Out Good
Good or Bad?
You accept a flight with weather below minimums…but you manage to
“scud run” successfully to your destination.
A Bad Decision May Turn Out Bad
Same as previous example…but not lucky this time.
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Bad
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Difference Between “Hero” and “Fool”
Imagine a situation where the flight should not be initiated for weather
• If you turn a flight down without trying…you may be viewed as too timid
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• If you take the flight and do not make your destination…but the aircraft is not
damaged and no one is hurt…you will likely be viewed as a good pilot
because you tried.
• If you take the flight and have an incident or accident you will likely be vilifed
as a fool.
• If you take the flight and make it…you will likely be viewed as a great pilot, or
perhaps a hero.
• We must understand that outcome has no bearing upon the “goodness” of a
decision.
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Frontal Cortex
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Frontal Cortex
• Rational Brain
• Reasoning, Problem Solving, Judgment, Impulse Control
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• Needs time to process information
• Given proper time, information, and environment, will: (Not Cockpit)
• Define the situation
• Identify options
• Compare & contrast alternatives
• Make a decision
• Implement an action plan
• Evaluate the results
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Amygdala
Amygdala
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Amygdala
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• Help classifying and storing emotional events…emotional memory
• Play a role in the consolidation of long term memories…the more
emotional the memory the more vivid the imprint and greater the long
term retention
• Especially important in decision-making by producing autonomic
response to emotional stimuli
• “Neural tripwire”
• Quick Decision(s) with little information (Cockpit)
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Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making
FRAMING in GENERAL
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• 80% Lean v 20% Fat
• Surgical Risk…80% probability of success v 20% chance of failure
• VFR Flight Not Recommended v IMC Possible (3,000 & 5 v 1,000 & 3)
• People are more likely to make a risky choice when presented with a
loss frame verses a gain frame.
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be disclosed to any third party or reproduced, in whole or in part, without AHI’s prior written consent.
Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making
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GAIN FRAME
• When given the option of certainly receiving $5.00, or a 50% chance of
winning $10.00…People most often select the sure bet. They will take
the $5.00
• When preparing a flight pilots will often make conservative, less risky
choices as they have nothing invested…they are in the gain frame
mindset.
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be disclosed to any third party or reproduced, in whole or in part, without AHI’s prior written consent.
Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making
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LOSS FRAME
• When given to option of certainly losing $5.00, or a 50% chance of
losing $10.00…People most often select the riskier option. The will risk
losing all $10.00.
• Pilots will take a more risky option in flight when they are faced with a
loss. Returning to the departure point when adverse conditions are
encountered is a difficult decision as they are in a loss frame.
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be disclosed to any third party or reproduced, in whole or in part, without AHI’s prior written consent.
Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making
CONFIRMATION BIAS
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•
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Choose the information we like and disregard that which we don’t.
• METAR says the weather is good…but TAF says will be bad soon.
• 1 PIREP reports weather better than forecast…2 PIREP’s report
weather as forecast.
• Closely aligned with “Wishful Thinking”
• Cognitive Inertia will often take hold in conjunction with Confirmation
Bias. We often rely on familiar assumptions when making a decision
and exhibit a reluctance to revise those assumptions, even when the
evidence supporting them no longer exists.
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Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making
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SOURCE CREDABILITY
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We closely research an item…say a cell phone. We can have reams of
information which suggest that phone A is superior to phone B.
•
However, if a person, whose opinion we highly value, says that phone B
is superior…we will likely choose B.
•
Nurse in Thunderstorm
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A Cockpit is a Poor Environment to make Good Decisions
Typically:
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• Cramped
• Too Hot or Too Cold
• Relatively Noisy
• Attention to Other Functions Necessary
• Too Little Information or Too Much Information
11 March 2015
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be disclosed to any third party or reproduced, in whole or in part, without AHI’s prior written consent.
We Must Endeavour to Make More Decisions Prior to Flight
Prior to Departure:
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• We need to have a flight plan (may be formal or informal)
• Depending upon the mission and specific conditions we may need a
secondary or perhaps a tertiary plan.
• Resist the temptation to allow technology to give a false sense of
security and to “wing it” in flight
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Practical Application
Dispatching:
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• Instead of asking the pilot if he/she can make a flight to a specified
destination…perhaps we should simply ask what portions of the Service
Area are suitable for flight???
Flight:
• Instead if continuing flight with a problem (poor weather, illuminated
caution light, questionable fuel state)…safely land the helicopter and
make a rational decision…not an emotional one!!! “Land and Live”
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The Take-Away
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• Human Beings have performance limitations just like an aircraft…and
we MUST:
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Understand how the mind works
•
Work within the constraints of our physical limitations…and the human
brain does represent a physical limitation
•
Use our analytical minds (frontal cortex) to formulate a plan(s) prior to
flight so as to avoid being forced into using our emotional minds
(amygdala) during flight
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He that lives upon hope
will die fasting
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~Benjamin Franklin
Please contact me with any questions or comments…thank you!
Manny Figlia
Aviation Safety Officer
Airbus Helicopters, Inc.
[email protected]
11 March 2015
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