Eastern Chimpanzee's habitat fragmentation in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda Dominique Mvunabandi1 , Iris van Duren2, Tiejun Wang2 1 Department of Land Survey, Faculty of Applied Fundamental Sciences, Institut d'Enséignement Supérieur de Ruhengeri, P.O. Box: 155 Ruhengeri, Rwanda 2 Natural Resource Department, Faculty of Geo-information Sciences and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede 7500 AE, The Netherlands [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract Habitat fragmentation, arising from anthropogenic activities, is one of the main threats to biological diversity. Chimpanzees are rare and endangered, and with a low fecundity they are much affected by it. This study assessed chimpanzee habitat fragmentation around Cyamudongo forest, Rwanda, in the light of potential habitat restoration to reconnect the isolated forest patch with the contiguous forest of Nyungwe. Landsat satellite imagery and aerial photographs were used to quantify land cover changes and analyse fragmentation patterns between 1989, 2005 and 2013. Based on spatial chimpanzee habitat suitability criteria followed by least cost path analysis, different scenarios for reconnecting the forest patches were generated and compared. Keywords Ecological corridor, GIS, habitat fragmentation, Pan troglodytes, Remote Sensing, suitability model. 1. Introduction Chimpanzee populations have declined dramatically in the last decades and disappeared in the wild in some African Countries due to improper forest management, habitat loss and hunting (Kormos et al. 2003). Franklin et al. (2002) define habitat fragmentation as “ reduction and isolation of patches of natural habitat” which affect many wildlife species including chimpanzees (Basabose 2005). As a result, chimps are classified as endangered species by IUCN and considered as species of global concern (Plumptre et al. 2010). In Rwanda, chimpanzees are found in three nature reserves Nyungwe National Park, Cyamudongo forest and Gishwati natural forest and these reserves are mainly composed of mountain rainforest (Barakabuye et al. 2007). Also here forests are facing rapid degradation, loss and change following deforestation for settlement, farming, agricultural activities and soil erosion. The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) in Nyungwe National Park (NNP) showed that the chimpanzee population decreased from 382 individuals in 2004-2005 to 306 individuals in 2009. Forest fires contributed to the decline (Barakabuye et al. 2007; Plumptre et al. 2010). In Gishwati forest reserve only 9-19 chimpanzees are left (Chancellor et al. 2012) while this reserve was once the largest forest in Rwanda. However, it has significantly decreased in size over the last 30 years as the forest reduced from 280km2 to 6 km2 (Guinness et al. 2014). Another small population of 37-41 chimpanzees (pers. comm.) currently reside in the Cyamudongo forest which is a disconnected forest patch at a distance of around 8 km from other populations in the Nyungwe National Park. To judge the risks for the isolated chimpanzee populations and to plan for reconnecting forest areas, reliable and up to date baseline information about the state of the forests is required. Remote sensing techniques have proven to be successful tools in mapping forest cover changes. Pintea (2007) used Landsat imageries to detect and monitor changes of forest structures at the landscape. He also investigated the use of Landsat data to map chimpanzee habitat in Gombe National Park between 1972-1999. Several methods and techniques have been developed and applied to quantify fragmentation. Hickey et al. 2012 developed and applied four landscape metrics edge density, cohesion, contagion and class area, to characterize potential suitable habitat of Bonobos, close relatives of the chimpanzees. Spatially modelling potential chimpanzee habitat involves mapping environmental factors that define chimpanzee habitat suitability. Such habitat suitability models and insight in where destroyed chimpanzee habitat potentially can be restored into suitable chimp habitat are inputs for ecological corridor design. Habitat factors seen as important for chimpanzee habitat restoration are: land cover, protected areas, distance to roads and distance to villages (Saad et al. 2013; Nangendo et al. 2010). Riverbanks protected by country’s wetlands Organic Law N° 04/2005 (REMA 2011) potentially can be used to connect different patches. This law recommend 20 meters from rivers as free zone to human activities. However this will require political will for law enforcement and participation of local farmers. Agro-forestry and tree planting activities may be motivating to local community to participate in restoring degraded chimpanzee habitat. In Tanzania, Lake Tanganyika Catchment Reforestation and Education (TACARE) Progam initiated in 1994 is a good example. People around lake Tanganyika and Gombe national reserve are encouraged to actively protect chimpanzee habitat through reforestation (JGI 2014). In Rwanda (Saad et al. 2013) elaborated on a reforestation suitability map and an ecological corridor that would be beneficial for national parks managers for future plans to connect Nyungwe forest, Mukura forest and Gishwati to enable free mobility of chimpanzees. A similar study in Uganda, considered chimpanzees habitat specific required to build a corridor model that will enable mammals including chimpanzees to move across many patches of the MurchisonSemliki landscape (Nangendo et al. 2010). This research seeks to assess the forest cover changes over the last 30 years, to examine the fragmentation status of the forest patches between Cyamudongo and Nyungwe forest, to assess habitat suitability in this area and determine the most promising location of an ecological corridor when habitat restoration is considered to take place. 2. Materials and methods Description of the study area Nyungwe National Park is a high-altitude, mountainous tropical rainforest situated in the Southwestern of Rwanda between the latitude of 02°15'-02°55'S and longitude 29°00'-29°30'E. It covers a total area of 970 km and together with neighbouring Kibira National Park in North of Burundi, it forms one of the largest tropical mountain forests in Africa (Plumptre et al. 2002). Temperatures are general cool (average minimum of 10.9 °C and maximum of 19.6°C) with annual precipitation average of 1744 mm (Kaplin et al. 1998). Nyungwe forest is characterized by various unique vegetation types and rich in wildlife among which many rare and endemic species. Cyamudongo forest (02°33.12’S 28°59.49’E) is a small dense forest patch around eight km away from Nyungwe National Park (NNP). Historically, Cyamudongo forest was connected to Nyungwe in its northeastern side. However, the increasing human population, converted forest into farmlands and tea plantation and Cyamudongo forest was disconnected and progressively reduced in size up to 410 ha remaining today. Its altitude ranges between 1,700 to 2,000 m above sea level and it harbours a wide range of flora and fauna species. A group of some 40 chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii), baboons, mona monkeys, important bird species and many plants species find their home here. Land cover change analysis Landsat satellite images (TM 1989, ETM+ 2005 and ETM+ 2013) were classified into four land cover types: forest, tea shrubs, crops, bareland and settlements using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) algorithm in ERDAS imagine10.1 software. Digital aerial photographs (2008 and 2010) were used for field observation. In a sample of 150 field locations, vegetation recordings were collected during field work. These were used to classify (45 observations) and validate (105 observations) the images. A 3x3 majority filter was applied to the classified images to eliminate and replace isolated pixels; providing a more realistic representation of the forested areas. The classification accuracy of the classified images was assessed in an error matrix and the Kappa coefficient was used to compare classification accuracies of classified images. To identify the land cover changes between 1989-2005 and 2005-2013, post classification comparison was applied in ArcGIS 10.2 software. Fragmentation analysis Due to the shortage of publication on fragmentation analysis for primates, other publications on Panda (Tong 2011, Sun 2011) and bonobos in DRC (Hickey et al. 2012) were used to identify relevant landscape metrics that could best describe the habitat fragmentation for chimpanzees. First, the land cover maps were reclassified in “forest” and “non-forest”. Next, FRAGSTATS (raster version) was applied to quantify the forest fragmentation patterns. In the moving window mode, fragmentation metrics were assessed for the forest cover maps of 1989, 2005 and 2013.The metrics are (1) Patch density: PD (2) Mean patch area index: Area MN (3) largest patch index: LPI and (4) Mean proximity index: PROX_MN. A short description of these metrics is provided in table 1: Table 1: Landscape pattern metrics description Index (unit) LPI (%) AREA_MN (ha) PROX_MN (m) PD Description The percentage of the landscape comprised by the largest patch Average size of patches Average proximity index for all patches in a class Number of corresponding patches divided by total landscape area Habitat suitability modelling Chimpanzee habitat requirements are described by Basabobe (2002), Pintea (2007 ) and Koops et al. (2012). They mention as most important spatial landscape variables: land cover type, protected areas, slope, distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to villages and forest patches. These variables were mapped and standardized with scores from 0 = unsuitable to 100 = highly suitable (see table 2). In a weighted summation a final suitability score was calculated based on their relative importance to the chimpanzees (Nangendo et al. 2010). However, since differences in opinion about relative importance of different variables exist between experts (Nangendo et al. 2010; Saad et al. 2013; local park managers (pers. comm.), we created 4 different suitability scenarios applying different relative importance weights and standardization. The scenarios are described as follows: Scenario 1 is based on Nangendo et al. (2010) combining the landscape variables: land cover, protected areas, distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to settlements. Scenario 2 and 3 were basically the same in terms of relative importance of the different factors and was based on the publication by Saad et al. (2013). They gave steeper slopes higher suitability scores because chimpanzees reside in areas with steeper slopes. However, we felt that chimpanzee may be found on steeper slopes not because they prefer to reside there but because human activities are more intense in relative flatter areas pushing the chimps into steeper areas. Therefore, scenario 3 was created to generate a habitat suitability map based on lower suitability scores for steeper slope. Scenario 4 assumed that existence of remnant forest patches nearby in the landscape are utmost important in the light of restoring the possibility for chimps to travel from the Cyamudongo forest patch to the main Nyungwe forest area and vice versa. Therefore a new spatial layer was created showing the presence of nearby forest patches within a distance of 300 m. Table 2: Suitability criteria and standardisation Land cover Protected areas Forest 100 Tea 0 Crops 0 Bare 0 Protected 100 Non protected 0 Slope (degrees) set 1 set 2 Distance to roads (m) 0 – 10 0 – 50 10 51 –100 20 101–500 30 501 – 1000 40 > 1000 100 10 50 11 – 20 20 75 21 – 30 30 100 31 – 40 40 100 41 – 50 50 100 51 – 60 60 100 61 – 70 70 100 71 – 80 80 75 81 – 90 90 50 91–100 100 0 Forest in surroundings (300 x 300 m) 0 – 10 10 11 – 20 20 21 – 30 30 31 – 40 40 41 – 50 50 51 – 60 60 61 – 70 70 71 – 80 80 81 – 90 90 91 – 100 100 Distance to rivers (m) 0–50 100 51–100 90 > 100 80 Distance to Settlements (m) 0 –100 0 101-500 20 501-1000 40 1001 – 5000 60 > 5000 100 In table 3 the relative weights applied in the different scenarios are shown. Table 3: Relative weights for habitat suitability factors Factors Land cover Protected Areas Slope Dist. to roads Dist. to rivers for drinking water Dist. to settlements Forest patches Scenario 1 (Nangendo et al., 2010) 0.51% 0.31% ----0.04% 0.11% Scenario 2 (Saad et al., 2013) set 1 0.40% 0.13% 0.20% 0.04% 0.20% Scenario 3 (Saad et al., 2013) set 2 0.40% 0.13% 0.20% 0.04% 0.20% Scenario 4 Nearby forest patches 0.30% 0.10% 0.10% 0.04% 0.20% 0.03% ----- 0.03% ------- 0.03% ------- 0.03% 0.23% Ecological corridor modelling The suitability maps produced in the previous section served as inputs to model potential ecocorridor paths and analyse the sensitivity of the location of the corridor to the different habitat suitability maps. To undertake this process, a software called ''corridor designer'' (Beier et al. 2007) was downloaded and added to the ArcGIS toolbox. The forest patches Cyamudongo and Nyungwe were defined as start and end of the corridor and we assumed a corridor width of 200 m to be sufficiently wide. 3. Results Land cover and land cover changes The three thematic maps presented in figure 1 show land cover types of the study area in years 1989, 2005 and 2013. Four land cover classes are displayed namely, forest, crops, tea shrubs and bare land and settlements. The relative sizes of the areas within the study area are presented in Table 4 while table 5 tabulates the changes in land cover types between 1989-2005 and 20052013. The built up area expanded over time. A remarkable observation is that the forest coverage reduced between 1989 and 2005 while it increased again in the period from 2005 to 2013. Near the main NNP forest reserve several patches became larger and denser while in the more intensively used agricultural area the forest remnants further disappeared. Between 1989 and 2005 the tea plantations were progressively converted in crops and between 2005 and 2013 many new tea plantations were established. The overall accuracy of classification was 87.3% for the 1989 TM image, 88.2% for 2005 TM image, and 91.2 % for the 2013 ETM+ image and the Kappa coefficients were 0.78, 0.79 and 0.85 respectively. Table 4: Areas of land cover types in 1989, 2005 and 2013 Land cover classes Forest Tea shrubs Crops Bare land & settlements Total Area in Ha 1989 54100 5235 124317 471 184122 % 29.4 2.8 2005 % 47786 26.0 2191 1.2 2013 49972 6026 % 27.2 3.3 97.5 133882 75.4 126429 0.3 262 0.1 1347 98.8 0.7 184122 184122 A: Land cover map 1989 B: Land cover map 2005 C: Land cover map 2013 Land cover types Figure 1: Land cover types in 1989, 2005 and 2013 Table 5: Magnitude of change in land cover types between 1989-2005 and 2005-2013 To Forest Tea shrubs 1989-2005 2005-2013 Tea shrubs 1989-2005 2005-2013 1989-2005 Crops 2005-2013 Bare land 1989-2005 & settlements 2005-2013 34337 34196 345.6 214.2 13099 15562 5.4 151.2 1006.2 1096.2 1137.6 943.2 3882.6 0.9 19609 12369 3793.5 837 110075 113113 404.1 1.8 6.3 0 1.8 199.8 1188 60.3 0 0 110.7 151.2 Forest From Crops Bare land Fragmentation analysis The fragmentation varies among the forest coverage of the area, as highlighted in table 6. The statistics indices showed that the forest patch density remained almost the same with from 1989 to 2005 but decreased from 2005 to 2013. At the same time, the size of the individual patches decreased from 1989 – 2005 and increased again between 2005 and 2013 with an increase of the largest patches. However, there was a serious decline in the proximity mean which did not reverse in the period afterwards. This means that the expansion of agricultural land, human settlements and other physical infrastructures worsened seriously the degree of isolation and fragmentation of forest patches from 1989 – 2005 and this situation did not improve in the period afterwards. Table 6: Four landscape metrics values calculations Years PD LPI AREA_MN PROX_MN 1989 16.98 10.85 1.73 349.91 2005 16.32 8.61 1.59 123.23 2013 8.369 12.50 3.24 107.68 Where PD = Patch density, LPI = Largest patch index, AREA_MN = Mean patch area and PROX_MN = Proximity mean Habitat suitability modelling Four suitability maps, based on the different descriptions of habitat suitability by different experts are shown in figure 2. The nature reserves are highly suitable whereas tea shrubs and settlements appeared to be unsuitable in all the four maps. Scenario 1 shows a more extreme contrast in suitability between the forest areas and the agricultural land in between compared to scenario 2 and 3, where agricultural land became moderately suitable and rivers traces are clearly shown. Scenario 4 shows contrast of rivers and forest patches in areas adjacent to forest of Nyungwe. Figure 2: Habitat suitability maps based on habitat suitability models by different experts. Scenario 1 was based on Nangendo et al., 2010, Scenario 2 and 3 was based on Saad et al., 2013 with different standardisation for “slope” and scenario 4 was based on the assumption that forest and presence of nearby forest patches are of utmost importance to chimp habitat. Ecological corridor modelling Three proposed corridor paths were created from suitability maps 2, 3 and 4 and are presented in figure 3. The habitat suitability model based on Nangendo et al., 2010 did not allow creating an ecological corridor between the Cyamudongo forest and the Nyungwe National Park because of the too long distances of very unsuitable habitat. The corridors path 2 and 3 pass in the central parts of the landscape through the agricultural land and mainly follow the river traces. It should be noted that in these areas the slopes are somewhat steeper but virtually no forest patches are available. The corridors of scenarios 2 and 3 are 8.44 km and 8.49 km long respectively. Corridor path 4 was the longest with 9.98km, followed by corridor path 3 traverses through agricultural land towards north direction of the landscape, areas with forest patches close to Nyungwe National Park. None of the corridor paths 2, 3, and 4 avoided roads and only corridor 4 crossed human settlements. A: No corridor path possible A: Corridor path 2 based on suitability map 2 B: Corridor path 3 based on suitability map 3 C: Corridor path 4 based on suitability map 4 Figure 3: Corridor paths based on different suitability maps 4. Discussion In this research, chimpanzee habitat suitability maps were the base of creating a potential ecological corridor between Cyamudongo forest and the forest of Nyungwe National Park. Habitat suitability depends on various factors and these factors all need standardisation before they can be combined in a quantitative assessment. Some arguments for standardisation and combination of the factors could be derived from literature (Saad et al. 2013; Nangendo et al. 2010) and other arguments came from discussion with experts like the park managers, research officers in Rwanda and the Executive Director of Jane Goodall Institute in the Netherlands. Suitability map 1 used the same biophysical variables, scores and weights as were used for the Murchison-Semliki landscape in Uganda (Nangendo et al. 2010). However, based on this map, no connection could be made between the Cyamudongo and Nyungwe forest because of too long unsuitable stretches. Although being the longest route, corridor path 4 looks most promising for chimpanzee habitat restoration because it appears to recognise best the importance of forest patches as essential stepping stones included in the corridor route. Chimpanzees cannot cross wide rivers unless there is a bridge as they cannot swim (JGI 2014a). However, rivers are an opportunity to design ecological corridors as river banks are protected by laws (Mclennan 2008). Mclennan (2008) observed that chimpanzees of Hoima in Western Uganda were using forest patches along water courses. A similar approach can be applied for forest patches and rivers found in the Cyamudongo-Nyungwe landscape. However, in the current agricultural landscape in between the Cyamudongo and Nyungwe forest, there are virtually no forest patches left. So, in its current state, this would hamper chimps to actually make use of such a corridor. More ambitious implementation of protection and replanting river banks is required when corridor establishment is really planned for. Corridor paths 2 and 3 (based on Saad et al., 2013) pass through the central part of the landscape characterized by relatively steeper slopes. Since this area is more susceptible to soil erosion when used agriculturally, reforestation of river banks and other slopes is an environmental measure that can contribute to a more sustainable landscape. This would go hand in hand with shortening the ecological corridor for chimps. In case reforestation of riverbanks and other currently used agricultural lands cannot be foreseen, we feel that the territory with steeper slopes in between the two main forests is overvalued in the suitability maps 2 and 3. Forest and forest patches are a boundary condition for chimps and if this boundary condition is not met it is unrealistic to expect chimps travelling 8 km. Also, Chen et al. (2008), looking at possibilities to reconnect isolated habitat patches of another threatened and rare species, the giant panda, stated that to transform unsuitable habitat into suitable and to improve the landscape connectivity, vegetation restoration needs to be applied. On top of that, chimps are probably found more frequently on steeper slopes not only because they prefer it but also because human activities are less intense compared to flat areas. Researchers revealed that steeper slope is favourable habitat for chimpanzee especially for nesting (Koops et al. 2012; Saad et al. 2013, Ukpong et al. 2013). However, the findings Ukpong et al. (2013) indicated that chimpanzees do construct nests on flat lands. None of the corridor paths 2, 3, and 4 avoided roads and some crossed human settlements. So probably in the current set of weights used, the factor “distance to settlements” may be undervalued. In the study by Saad et al. (2013), corridors paths did not avoid roads crossing between the Nyungwe forest and Mukura forest in Rwanda. Therefore roads became a constraint to the dispersal and free movement of chimpanzees between these two forests. As the roads are paved, Saad et al. (2013) proposed an infrastructure solution to the Government of Rwanda to ensure the safe crossing of chimpanzees. In the Netherlands, there is much experience with designing eco-corridors enable animals to cross the roads. Fauna bridges or fauna tunnels let animals cross safely (Jongman 2008) ). However, these expensive solutions are not necessary in the Cyamudongo-Nyungwe landscape as the traffic density is rather low and the roads are not paved. It is difficult to find evidence to judge what width of a chimpanzee habitat corridor would be scientifically sound. In the Murchison-Semliki landscape, Nangendo et al. (2010) used a 200m wide corridor to enable free movement of chimpanzees. After consultation of park managers in Rwanda, the same width of 200 meters was judged to be sufficient for a corridor path of around 8 kilometres from Cyamudongo to Nyungwe National Park. If a corridor path is to be established in the future, there is the necessity of laws, regulations and policies to be implemented. In this sense, well-established forestry and wetlands policies in Rwanda could be followed. The country’s wetlands are protected by Organic Law N°04/2005 highlighting modalities of conservation and protection of the environment. The law recommends a creation of 20 meters free buffer zone from river banks to ensure the protection of wetlands and its biodiversity (REMA, 2011). Although one could argue if 20 m width is sufficient for the corridor, this law will be helpful in delineating areas suitable for such a corridor. In Indonesia, the law (Keputusan Presiden No 32/1990) requires a 50 meters buffer zones on both side along small rivers. This law was applied to design an eco-corridor for the Borneo Orangutan (Persey, 2011) and the orangutans do profit of this forest corridor. It would be, therefore, a good suggestion to expand the buffer required by the law from 20 meters to 50 meters. It will provide safer mobility of chimpanzees. In 2004, the Government of Rwanda has put in place a forestry policy with the aim of increasing forest cover up to 30% of national total area (MINIRENA, 2010). This policy supports forest restoration alongside rivers and corridor path 4. According to Plumptre et al. (2010), restoration of degraded habitat and encourage agroforestry are among the top priorities to protect chimpanzees in Rwanda and were included in the National Action Plan for great apes. In this sense, the forest restoration should include fast growing trees which are identified as chimpanzees food and nesting tress. Therefore, three levels of intervention can be applied in Rwanda: (1) Involving local community to undertake agro-forestry practices by planting trees such as Grevillea trees which provide fuel wood and timber to local community (2) Planting fast growing trees of their preferences such fruit trees: avocado, papaya, orange and citrus providing fruits (3) to plant nesting and food tress for chimpanzees such as Tabernaemontana stapfiana, Prunus africana, Schefflera goetzenii, Salacia erecta, Coccinea mildbraedii, Cleistanthus polystachyus, Croton megalocarpus, Casearia runssorica, Ekebergia capensis, Macaranga kilimandschalica Cymphonia groblefela, Syzygium guineensis, Dombea gotseenii, Ficus sp., Carapa grandiflora, etc. (Gross-camp et al. 2009). Similar initiatives have been applied successfully in different countries to protect chimpanzee and their natural habitat. In Tanzania the Lake Tanganyika Catchment Reforestation and Education (TACARE) project was initiated to address poverty and support livelihoods in villages around Lake Tanganyika and Gombe National Park. TACARE focuses on community socioeconomic development and provides training and education program to local communities to increase their knowledge in forest conservation and natural resources in general (JGI, 2014b). The same experience and success story from TACARE in forest restoration have an added value in Rwanda during implementation of reforestation program in Cyamudongo-Nyungwe landscape. 5. Conclusion: In this research, land cover change analysis of the landscape between Cyamudongo and Nyungwe forest was performed in relation to protection and potential restoration of chimpanzee habitat. Fragmentation patterns of a period of 25 years were calculated and analysed. Different chimpanzee habitat suitability models were compared we discussed to what extent these models seem to provide a realistic base for design of an ecological corridor. The paths were modelled based on the following set of biophyisical variables: land cover, protected areas, slope, distance to rivers, distance to settlements, forest patches. After evaluation of how these factors were standardised and what relative weights were assigned to the individual factors we concluded that the most realistic suitability map resulting from this study is suitability map 4. This also provides the most realistic routing for a potential chimpanzee corridor to connect the isolated Cyamudongo forest with the forest of the Nyungwe National Park 6. Acknowledgments We are sincerely grateful the staff of Wildlife Conservation Society and Rwanda Development Board-Tourism as well as to the Conservation Department for their permission, logistics assistance and support to conduct research in Nyungwe National Park. We would like to thank Mr. Diederik Visser from Jane Goodall Institute -Netherlands for his invaluable expert knowledge on chimpanzee that helped us to successfully conduct this research. We are also grateful to Netherlands Fellowship Programme for providing the funding for the research. 7. Bibliography Basabose, A. K. (2005). Ranging Patterns of Chimpanzees in a Montane Forest of Kahuzi , Democratic Republic of Congo. International Journal of Primatology, 26(1). doi:10.1007/s10764-005-0722-1 Beier, P, Majka, D, Jenness, J. (2007). Conceptual steps for designing wildlife corridors. Chancellor, R. L., & Rundus, A. S. (2012). 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