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The Electoral College
Nov. 14, 2016 It has attracted criticism, but the system was designed to hold the country
together.
By George Friedman
The final irony in an election filled with irony is the refusal of some voters to accept Presidentelect Donald Trump’s victory. This group doesn’t simply include demonstrators but a movement
of some size to persuade the electoral college to vote for Hillary Clinton instead of Trump. The
irony is that it was Trump who threatened to refuse to accept the results of the election, while
the Clinton camp charged that Trump was violating the sanctity of democracy. Now each has
adopted the other’s position. Although, Clinton herself has not sought to overturn the election.
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Protesters demonstrate against President-elect Donald Trump on Nov. 13, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Republican
candidate lost the popular vote by more than a million votes, but won the electoral college. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty
Images)
Irony aside, it should be borne in mind that asking electors to vote differently than they had
pledged to is completely legitimate. The president of the United States is not elected either by
popular vote or even by the mathematics of electoral votes. Presidents are elected by electors –
these are the people voters actually cast their ballots for on election day. All electors are
selected by the parties to whom it is assumed they will be loyal. But legally, their vote is theirs
and they are empowered by the constitution to use their judgement as they see fit.
The founders chose this method, and I think it is a pretty good one for a number of reasons.
First, it has to be remembered that the United States was not founded as a democracy. Leaving
out all those who originally were unable to vote (slaves, women, men without property in many
states), the founders created a republic. A republic is a system in which voters do not govern
directly, but select representatives to speak for them. The representatives are not bound to
slavishly uphold public opinion, but to exercise their own judgment. They face periodic elections,
every six years in the Senate and every two years in the House of Representatives. Initially
there was another layer — the state legislators selected senators. State legislators were elected
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by the people and answerable come next election day. The people’s voice was intended to be
heard, but moderated by passing through filters.
The founders wanted filters because they feared that passions could arouse the public, and
national policy could become hostage to these passions. Therefore, they wanted men (always
men) mediating between public opinion and national policy. They also expected these men to be
of substance and property, with much to lose from error and also more difficult to corrupt. This
mirrors Trump’s argument that he is less corruptible because of his wealth. In addition, such
men would not see public service as a career, and could act without fear of being voted out of
office. Their livelihood was not to depend on election. They were answerable to the public, but
did not fear or worship public opinion. Therefore, the founders did not believe in direct
democracy at all. They founded a republic, a very different creature.
The electoral college is derived from this original conception of republicanism. The founders
were trying to solve a serious problem with this system. They did not want a parliamentary
system. Parliaments made the executive and the legislature one. They wanted the executive
and Congress to check and balance each other (and do they ever). Therefore, they needed
another institution.
The founders didn’t want political parties as they feared factionalism. They never anticipated the
two party system, which presents voters with basically a binary choice and minor parties on the
margins. What could have occurred, and what might yet occur, is complete gridlock — a
situation with many viable candidates, none with the majority of the popular vote or the majority
of electoral votes. Who could solve this problem? An entity was needed that could negotiate,
compromise and create a coalition to elect a president by majority. These people had to be free
to change their votes in the course of negotiations. If even then no decision could be made, the
election would be decided in the House of Representatives, as it was in 1824. This would mean
that one branch of government would be selecting the other branch, but this is only a last resort,
since it was the last thing the founders wanted. The electoral college was created to solve
political deadlocks without making the president a prisoner of the House of Representatives.
The founders did not opt for direct election of presidents because they opposed direct
democracy and supported representative government. But there was another reason as well.
The United States was a coalition of sovereign states. That’s why it is called the United States.
Each state is required to have a republican government, but the United States is not a direct
compact with the people. “We the people” are the foundation of the Republic, but the states are
the legal foundation. The states wanted to be assured that one state would not override the
interests of the others and no state would be completely excluded from consideration. Assume
for a moment that one state had developed tremendously and contained over half the
population of the United States. Assuming for this argument that they would all vote for the
same candidate for president, the smaller states would be disenfranchised. Larger states could
ride roughshod over smaller ones.
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The states wanted to make certain that they would not be excluded. Therefore, each state was
given two senators, regardless of size, and in one house of Congress all states were equally
powerful. In the other house, representatives would be apportioned by the size of the
population. The House of Representatives, elected every two years, would represent public
opinion. The Senate would represent the interests of the states (regardless of population), limit
the passions of the people by blocking the House, and make it difficult for the president to
propose measures, make treaties and ratify appointments. The Senate was supposed to impose
barriers and limits on the president and House. In the European Union, equality and unanimity
between members is critical, but the United States chose a much more sophisticated system,
combining a deep democratic process, with mediating layers to limit or block public passions.
The electoral college gives each state electors equal to their two senators and the number of
representatives apportioned to them. No state has less than three electors, and therefore any
state potentially can determine an election, and all regions, no matter how lightly settled, must
be considered. Since any state might make the difference in the electoral vote, every candidate
must consider each state’s interests.
The United States is a vast nation with highly differentiated interests. From the beginning, the
founders were forced to face the fact that holding the nation together required concern for the
interests of all states, and not only for those densely settled. A pure democracy would consider
the nation’s interests as a whole. The founders were aware that the nation was not a whole,
although all regions were needed. Assume, for example, one state holds the country’s entire
reserves of a crucial resource, but has a small population. In a direct democracy, its resources
could be distributed to other states and compensation ignored. That would breed hostility and
secessionism, perhaps even civil war. In any event, in a nation of united states, where all states
are needed for geopolitical reasons, their interests have to be recognized.
The system the founders produced compels all candidates to pay serious attention to
underpopulated states. In this election, highly populated states like California, Texas and New
York overwhelmingly supported Clinton or Trump from the beginning. Smaller states like Nevada
or New Hampshire became important. Without the electoral college, the idiosyncratic interests
of small states would receive little notice, while a broad national marketing campaign,
insensitive to significant regional differences, would decide the result. The centers of population
along the two highly populated coasts, where many dismiss “flyover” states, would never have
to face the realities of Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada. In this election, flyover states were able
to stun coastal America. They could not do that without the electoral college.
The United States is a geopolitical invention. The 13 original colonies were very different from
each other. As the nation expanded westward, even more exotic states became part of the
union. Constantly alienating smaller states through indifference could undermine the national
interest. The Senate and the electoral college both stop that from happening, or at least limit it.
Any state can matter in any election.
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You might charge that this is undemocratic. It is. It was intended to be. The founders did not
create a direct democracy for a good reason. It would have prevented the United States from
emerging as a stable union. They created a republican form of government based on
representation and a federal system based on sovereign states. Because of that, a candidate
who ignores or insults the “flyover” states is likely to be writing memoirs instead of governing.
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