Ricky Lai 黎柏坚
公司报告：新浪 (SINA US)
+852 2509 2603
[email protected]
7 December 2016
Weibo Drives Revenue and Gross Margin, “Neutral”
微博推动收入和毛利率，“中性”





Sina’s 3Q16 results met expectations with 68% growth in adjusted 3Q16
net profit, driven by Weibo advertising revenue growth and gross profit margin
expansion. Sina Weibo succeeded in boosting platform traffic and grew young
segmented user numbers through the launch of short videos and the
introduction of video apps from Yixia.
Downgrade the investment rating to “Neutral” and maintain the TP at
US$ 72.00. We revise up FY16-FY18 EPS forecasts by 0.4%/ 1.4%/ 1.7%,
respectively, due to the revision of Weibo advertising revenue. The TP
represents 26.6x FY16 PER, 31.9x FY17 PER, 25.5x FY18 PER and 1.92
FY15-18 PEG. We lower the Company’s investment rating to “Neutral” based
on the limited upside potential.
Neutral
Rating:
Downgraded
评级：
中性 (下调)
6-18M TP 目标价:
We revise up FY16-FY18 Weibo advertising revenue forecasts by 3.1%/
4.0%/ 5.3%, respectively, due to stronger SME customer contributions
and mobile Weibo adoption. Weibo MAU reached 297 million in Sep. 2016,
up 34% yoy thanks to the introduction of short videos and live broadcasting
functions on mobile platforms.
Gross profit margin to benefit from higher SME customer contributions
to Weibo. 3Q16 overall gross profit margin grew by 3.8 ppt yoy to 67.1% due
to a 5 ppt improvement in weibo margin, offset by a 1 ppt decline in portal
business. The increasing SME customer contributions is expected to grow
Sina’s overall gross profit margin in FY17-FY18.
GTJA Research 国泰君安研究
Company Report: Sina (SINA US)
US$72.00
Revised from 原目标价:
US$72.00
Share price 股价：
US$70.590
Stock performance
股价表现
80
% change
60
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
Dec-15
Mar-16
2016 年第 3 季度业绩符合预期，经调整后的第 3 季度净利润同比增长 68%，是由于微博
May-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
NASDAQ COMP Index
Dec-16
Sina
广告收入增长和毛利率提高。新浪微博成功地提升了平台流量及增加年轻用户的比例，因

Change in Share Price
股价变动
由于中小企业客户贡献的增加和移动微博平台的使用，我们分别上调 2016-2018 年微博广
告收入预测 3.1%/ 4.0%/ 5.3%。由于在移动平台上推出短视频和直播功能，微博在 2016
Abs. %
绝对变动 %
Rel. % to NASDAQ index
相对纳指变动 %
Avg. Share price(US$)
平均股价（美元）
年 9 月的月度活跃用户数达 297 百万，同比增长 34%。

毛利率将受益于中小企业客户更高的微博贡献。第 3 季度整体毛利率同比升 3.8 个百分点
至 67.1%，是由于微博毛利率增 5 个百分点，但门户网站下降 1 个百分点。随着中小企业
3M
3 个月
1Y
1年
2.3
(10.8)
46.4
(3.4)
(11.9)
42.7
49.8
62.0
52.8
Source: Bloomberg, Guot ai Junan Internat ional
客户更高的贡献，2017-2018 年新浪整体的毛利率将改善。

1M
1 个月
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
通过一下科技推出短视频和直播视频的应用程序。
下调投资评级至“中性”及维持目标价为 72.00 美元。由于调整微博广告收入，我们分别
上调 2016-2018 年的每股盈利预测 0.4%/ 1.4%/ 1.7%。目标价相当于 26.6 倍 2016 年市
盈率、31.9 倍 2017 年市盈率、25.5 倍 2018 年市盈率及 2015-2018 年 PEG 为 1.92。我
Year End
年结
12/31
2014A
Turnover
Net Profit
EPS
EPS
PER
BPS
PBR
DPS
Yield
ROE
收入
股东净利
每股净利
每股净利变动
市盈率
每股净资产
市净率
每股股息
股息率
净资产收益率
(US$ m)
(US$ m)
(US$)
(△%)
(x)
(US$)
(x)
(US$)
(%)
(%)
768
177
2.722
302.5
25.9
33.037
2.1
0.000
0.0
10.6
2015A
881
26
0.426
(84.3)
165.6
42.586
1.7
0.000
0.0
1.1
2016F
1,026
210
2.711
535.9
26.0
35.644
2.0
0.000
0.0
7.9
2017F
1,226
168
2.254
(16.8)
31.3
39.799
1.8
0.000
0.0
5.9
2018F
1,465
206
2.824
25.3
25.0
43.943
1.6
0.000
0.0
6.7
Shares in issue (m)总股数 (m)
Market cap. (US$ m) 市值 (US$ m)
3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000)
52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低
77.5
5,470.7
1,413.1
79.520 / 37.900
Major shareholder 大股东
Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%)
FY17 Net gearing 17 年净负债/股东资金 %)
FY15-18 PEG (x)
Charles Chao 17.9%
82.1
Net Cash
1.9
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 1 of 8
Company Report
们下调投资评级至“中性”，因有限的上升空间。
Sina’s 3Q16 results met expectations. Adjusted 3Q16 net profit grew by 68% yoy, driven by Weibo advertising revenue
growth and gross profit margin improvement. Thanks to stronger contributions from SME customers and the launch of short
videos, Weibo revenue surged by 41.8% yoy in 3Q16. 3Q16 gross profit margin improved by 3.8 ppt yoy to 67.1% due to
stronger contributions from higher margin SME customers. Although Alibaba’s (BABA US) contributions declined recently,
Sina Weibo succeeded in shifting its customers’ focus towards small and medium sized enterprises (SME) and Key Accounts
7 December 2016
3Q16 Results Review
(KA). We expect that Sina’s business can be further propelled by Weibo’s growth with higher adoption of advertising from
SME customers. The guidance for Weibo’s net revenue in 4Q16 is to be between US$ 205 million and US$ 210 million,
representing a yoy growth rate of 37.6% and 40.9%, respectively, which is in line with expectations.
Table-1: Sina’s Income Statement Analysis
3Q16
3Q15
2Q16
YoY
QoQ
Net revenue
274.9
226.3
244.0
21.5%
12.7%
-Advertising
233.6
193.5
205.0
20.7%
14.0%
-Non-advertising
41.2
32.8
38.9
25.6%
5.9%
Gross profit
184.5
143.3
155.0
28.8%
19.0%
Sales & marketing
(64.2)
(53.3)
(56.9)
20.5%
12.8%
S&M / revenue
(55.7)
(54.4)
(53.5)
2.4%
4.1%
(28.4)
(20.8)
(23.8)
36.5%
19.3%
5.5
0.9
(6.2)
511.1%
n.a.
133.5
(1.1)
34.9
n.a.
282.5%
(2.7)
0.0
0.0
N.a.
n.a.
6.7
5.9
6.3
13.6%
6.3%
Net profit
146.5
9.8
43.3
1,394.9%
238.3%
EPS (US$)
2.08
0.17
0.62
1,123.5%
235.5%
GPM
67.1%
63.3%
63.5%
3.8ppt
3.6ppt
Net profit margin
53.3%
4.3%
17.7%
49.0ppt
35.5ppt
General &
administrative
Equity method
investments, net
Gain on sale on
investments, net
Fair value change in
option liability
Interest & other income,
net
Comments
Driven by SME and KA
customers to the Weibo
business
Contributions from investments
disposals
GPM improved thanks to
stronger contributions from
SME customers
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
US$ (Million)
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
FY16-FY18 Weibo revenue is expected to grow by 36.4%/ 29.6%/ 25.5% yoy, respectively. 3Q16 advertising revenue
improved by 20.7% owing to 45.0% growth in Weibo advertising revenue offset by a 16.0% decline in portal advertising.
Weibo MAU reached 297 million, up 34% yoy, with over 89% of the users using the mobile platform. Weibo DAU grew at a
similar pace of 32% yoy and reached 132 million. Although revenue contributed from Alibaba declined by 71.4% yoy to
US$ 9.3 million, the management emphasized that Alibaba is still one of the Company’s most important business partners.
We attributed the drop in Alibaba’s revenue to the limited need for brand building due to its well known label in the China
market. Unlike the reduction in advertising spending from Alibaba, advertising revenue to weibo from SME and KA increased
by 101.1% yoy in 3Q16 due to higher mobile Weibo traffic and user growth. We think SME and KA will spend higher
advertising on Weibo pages for targeting their desired market segments in FY17. We also believe that Weibo users are
faster network transmission rates and stable networks. Sina Weibo succeeded in boosting platform traffic and grew young
segmented user numbers through the launch of short videos and the introduction of video apps from Yixia (一下科技). Yixia
owns several short video and live broadcasting apps including Yi Zhibo(一直播), Xiao Kaxiu (小咖秀) and Miaopa (秒拍).
Short videos are highly favored by younger generations thanks to the ease of emotional expression and the lowering of
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 2 of 8
Company Report
spending more time on surfing than ever before on mobile platforms thanks to the lowering of telecom service tariffs with
mobile telecom tariffs. The auto roll-out of short advertising videos can help Weibo to sustain its advertising revenue growth.
and initiate market campaigns to boost user purchases. KA can interact with their target customers more easily through their
own Weibo company page, and issue discounts to their customers if the users “like” their pages. By growing their user
numbers, the KA can notify their customers of the latest products and handle public relations easier than before. Many foreign
mobile applications including Facebook and Instagram have also been able to boost advertising revenue through the launch
of short videos. We expect Weibo’s advertising can further propel higher platform utilization and stronger SME and KA
7 December 2016
Key accounts are also launching more pages and updating their news pages frequently on Weibo to promote their products
customer contributions. We project 4Q16 Weibo advertising revenue and non-advertising revenue to grow by 45.0% and
6.0%, respectively, this also implies FY16 overall revenue to grow by 36.4% yoy. Thanks to higher mobile Weibo adoption
with the launch of short video features and supported by SME customers, FY17-FY18 Weibo revenue will grow by 26.9%/
25.5% yoy, respectively. We revise up FY16-FY18 Weibo advertising revenue by 3.1%/ 4.0%/ 5.3%, respectively.
Table-2: Alibaba and non-Alibaba to Weibo Advertising Contributions
US$ (Million)
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
Alibaba advertising revenue
34.5
28.4
32.5
48.2
11.1
12.8
9.3
73.7%
28.1%
18.2%
26.8%
(67.8%)
(54.8%)
(71.4%)
44.7
59.4
73.3
81.3
88.1
114.3
147.4
39.6%
58.9%
93.8%
62.8%
97.3%
92.3%
101.1%
yoy
SME and KA advertising
revenue
yoy
Source: the Company.
Figure-1: Sina Weibo Quarterly Advertising Revenue
Figure-2: Sina Weibo Annual Advertising Revenue and
and YoY Growth
YoY Growth
Weibo advertising revenue (LHS)
YoY growth (RHS)
USD (Million)
Weibo advertising revenue (LHS)
YoY growth (RHS)
1,200
156.7
60%
150
129.5
120
127.2
105.9
99.2
47.2%
90
48.0%
44.7%
1,000
50%
800
40%
600
30%
60
400
20%
25.4%
52.0%
971
41.9%
50%
33.0%
40%
759
402
30%
571
27.9%
265
200
30
20%
10%
10%
0
0
0%
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Weibo MAU (LHS)
350
FY16F
FY17F
FY18F
Figure-4: Weibo’s DAU and YoY Growth
Million
YoY growth (RHS)
70%
64.1%
297.0
282.0
60%
236.0
200
150
31.8%
33.0%
33.8%
YoY growth (RHS)
132.0
120.0
50%
100
40%
80
30%
60
70%
126.0
120
261.0
33.0%
Weibo DAU (LHS)
140
59.2%
300
222.0
FY15A
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
Figure-3: Weibo’s MAU and YoY Growth
Million
0%
FY14A
3Q16
Source: the Company.
250
60%
70%
61.9%
60%
100.0
50%
106.0
40%
43.5%
34.8%
35.5%
30%
32.0%
100
20%
40
20%
50
10%
20
10%
0
0%
3Q15
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
180
4Q15
Source: the Company.
See the last page for disclaimer
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
0
0%
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
Source: the Company.
Page 3 of 8
Company Report
USD (Million)
Portal advertising contributions were lower than expected. 3Q16 portal advertising revenue declined by 12.3% yoy, which
customers. We expect 4Q16 portal advertising revenue to further decline by 16% yoy because of competition from other social
advertising platforms. Sina’s FY16-FY18 portal advertising revenue is expected to decline by 12.6%/ 10.0%/ 7.0%,
respectively. 3Q16 portal non-advertising revenue grew 51.5% yoy thanks to higher e-commerce traffic, online games and
value-added business contributions. Alipay is also playing an important role for Sina’s platform and transactions with
customers for facilitating purchases. We revise up FY16-FY18 portal non-advertising revenue by 3.7%/ 7.3%/ 8.1%,
7 December 2016
showed a downward trend in revenue contributions to the Company due to the lackluster appeal of advertising platforms to
respectively. FY16-FY18 Sina overall portal revenue is expected to decline by 7.1%/ 3.5%/ 7.7% yoy, respectively.
Table-3: Sina’s and Weibo’s Quarterly Revenue Analysis
US$ (Million)
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16F
Weibo advertising
revenue
79.2
87.9
105.9
129.5
99.2
127.2
156.7
187.8
52.7%
47.5%
61.9%
47.2%
25.4%
44.7%
48.0%
45.0%
Weibo
non-advertising
revenue
17.1
20.0
18.9
19.9
20.0
19.7
20.2
21.1
yoy
9.4%
12.6%
0.6%
15.3%
17.0%
(1.3%)
6.9%
6.0%
Sina portal
advertising revenue
71.2
88.4
87.6
93.6
63.7
78.7
76.8
78.7
(15.1%)
(8.2%)
(13.6%)
(0.4%)
(10.5%)
(11.0%)
(12.3%)
(16.0%)
17.1
17.0
14.0
13.5
15.7
19.2
21.2
20.3
(14.9%)
26.7%
6.9%
13.1%
(8.4%)
12.9%
51.5%
50.0%
yoy
yoy
Sina non-advertising
revenue
yoy
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
Gross profit margin benefits from SME customer contributions. Sina’s 3Q16 overall gross profit margin improved by 3.8
ppt yoy to 67.1% due to a 5 ppt improvement in Weibo margin offset by a 1 ppt decline in portal business. Weibo gross profit
margin in 3Q16 was 75%, up 5 ppt yoy thanks to higher SME customer contributions. SME customers have a much higher
gross profit margin which is expected to improve Weibo’s margin in FY17. Sina’s FY16-FY18 overall gross profit margin is
Figure-5: Gross Profit Margins of Portal and Weibo in
Figure-6: Sina’s Profit Margins Estimations
3Q15, 3Q16 and 2Q16
Portal
80%
Weibo
64%
63%
60%
62.2%
72%
70%
67%
80%
Overall
75%
64.2%
64.7%
60%
Gross profit margin
55%
54%
63.9%
61.9%
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
expected to increase by 2.0 ppt/ 0.3 ppt/ 0.5 ppt to 63.9%/ 64.2%/ 64.7% yoy, respectively.
51%
Operating profit margin
40%
Net profit margin
40%
23.0%
20.5%
13.7%
20%
2.9%
20%
9.1%
0%
FY14A
0%
3Q16
2Q16
FY16F
FY17F
14.1%
FY18F
-5.3%
-20%
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
Company Report
Source: the Company.
3Q15
1.4%
FY15A
10.9%
6.0%
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 4 of 8
We revise up Sina’s FY16-FY18 EPS by 0.4%/ 1.4%/ 1.7%, respectively. We revise up Sina’s FY16-FY18 revenue by
0.7%/ 1.6%/ 1.9%, respectively, due to the revisions to Weibo revenue and value-added services forecasts. Due to stronger
SME customer contributions and better mobile Weibo adoption, we revise up FY16-FY18 Weibo advertising revenue by
3.1%/ 4.0%/ 5.3%, respectively. We cut FY16-FY18 portal revenue by 0.8%/ 2.2%/ 3.0%, respectively, because of its
lackluster business outlook and stronger competition from other advertising platforms on social networks. Sina’s FY16-FY18
7 December 2016
Profit Revision
EPS is revised up by 0.4%/ 1.4%/ 1.7%, respectively.
Table-4: Sina’s Financial Estimation Revisions
OLD
US$ (Million)
2016F
2017F
2018F
2016F
NEW
2017F
2018F
2016F
CHANGE
2017F
2018F
Net revenue
1,019
1,207
1,438
1,026
1,226
1,465
0.7%
1.6%
1.9%
-Advertising
854
1,003
1,188
869
1,027
1,221
1.8%
2.4%
2.8%
-Non-advertising
156
196
240
157
198
244
0.6%
1.1%
1.5%
Net profit
209
166
203
210
168
206
0.4%
1.4%
1.7%
2.700
2.223
2.777
2.711
2.254
2.824
0.4%
1.4%
1.7%
EPS (US$)
Source: Guotai Junan International.
Valuation
Downgrade the Company’s investment rating to “Neutral” and maintain the TP of US$ 72.00. We expect weibo to take
a more important role in Sina’s business outlook due to its lackluster portal business and stronger mobile Weibo adoption. We
maintain the Company’s TP of US$ 72.00 and downgrade the investment rating to “Neutral” due to the limited upside
Company Report
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
potential. The TP represents 26.6x FY16 PER, 31.9x FY17 PER, 25.5x FY18 PER and 1.92 FY15-18 PEG.
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 5 of 8
Company
Market
Cap
PER (x)
Ticker
Currency
Price
16F
CYOU US
USD
23.460
1,224
9.0
EA US
USD
76.870
23,196
20.6
Activision Blizzard Inc
ATVI US
USD
36.700
27,276
17.8
Netease
NTES US
USD
222.650
29,524
17.1
Simple Average
Weighted Average
17F
PBR (x)
ROE(%)
ROA(%)
16F
16F
18F
16F
17F
18F
7.6
6.7
1.0
0.9
0.7
11.9
7.0
20.7
18.4
6.8
5.9
4.6
35.8
17.5
16.8
14.5
3.1
2.8
2.4
15.1
9.1
14.5
12.6
5.4
4.1
3.3
33.9
24.3
16.1
14.9
13.1
4.1
3.4
2.8
24.2
14.5
18.2
17.0
14.8
4.9
4.1
3.3
27.8
17.0
13.4
US Online Game Companies
Changyou
Electronic Arts Inc
7 December 2016
Table-5: Peers Comparison
HK Online Game Companies
Tencent
00700 HK
HKD
189.900
1,799,655
36.2
27.8
21.6
10.2
7.7
5.9
30.4
Boyaa Interactive Int.
00434 HK
HKD
4.270
3,269
10.9
10.2
9.2
1.4
1.3
1.1
12.5
11.7
IGG
00799 HK
HKD
5.900
7,983
15.6
11.8
10.9
4.6
3.9
3.2
29.8
25.6
Netdragon
00777 HK
HKD
22.100
10,990
n.a.
166.2
65.8
2.5
2.4
2.4
(2.2)
(1.7)
Simple Average
20.9
54.0
26.9
4.7
3.8
3.1
17.6
12.3
Weighted Average
36.0
28.5
21.8
10.1
7.7
5.8
30.1
13.4
Advertising Companies
Sohu.Com Inc
Weibo
Bitauto
SOHU US
USD
33.880
1,312
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1.2
1.3
1.3
n.a.
n.a.
WB US
USD
46.200
9,828
65.7
37.8
25.3
12.9
9.5
6.6
20.0
13.4
0.3
BITA US
USD
19.940
1,410
28.1
15.2
9.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.5
Cheetah Mobile
CMCM US
USD
9.990
1,423
79.9
36.7
22.2
3.0
2.6
2.2
(0.5)
1.5
58.com
WUBA US
USD
31.810
4,585
n.a.
34.8
16.2
1.7
1.6
1.5
(2.8)
n.a.
Soufun
SFUN US
USD
3.020
1,436
n.a.
44.4
14.2
2.0
1.2
1.1
n.a.
n.a.
Phoenix New Media
FENG US
USD
3.780
270
56.4
25.9
21.5
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.8
1.1
Sina
SINA US
USD
70.590
5,471
52.2
31.8
21.2
1.7
1.7
1.5
5.8
2.2
FB US
USD
117.310
338,931
28.6
22.3
17.9
5.9
4.7
3.8
20.9
20.0
Simple Average
51.8
31.1
18.5
3.4
2.7
2.2
6.5
6.4
Weighted Average
30.1
23.1
18.1
5.9
4.7
3.8
20.2
19.4
Facebook
Alibaba
BABA US
USD
90.400
225,573
n.a.
28.2
22.7
6.6
5.7
4.7
39.3
23.1
VIPSHOP
VIPS US
USD
11.580
6,833
n.a.
14.0
11.6
7.6
5.0
3.4
48.3
10.9
Jumei
JUMEI US
USD
4.650
682
n.a.
7.5
6.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
9.3
6.3
EBay
EBAY US
USD
28.210
31,537
n.a.
13.5
12.4
4.4
4.0
3.4
30.5
11.6
JD.com
JD US
USD
25.830
35,747
15.7
151.1
48.8
8.1
7.7
6.8
n.a.
n.a.
AMAZON
MZN US
USD
764.720
363,369
12.7
54.3
37.5
20.1
13.9
10.6
22.2
5.4
Gome Electrical Appliances
00493 HK
HKD
1.000
21,967
n.a.
21.3
18.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
2.5
1.0
Simple Average
14.2
41.4
22.5
7.0
5.5
4.4
25.4
9.7
Weighted Average
12.9
48.2
31.5
13.9
10.2
7.9
28.9
12.1
13.8
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
E-commerce Companies
Search Engine Companies
Alphabet Inc
GOOG US
USD
776.180
528,672
22.4
18.8
16.0
3.8
3.2
2.7
15.6
BIDU US
USD
165.170
57,248
36.4
28.2
20.0
4.3
3.7
3.0
12.0
6.4
Simple Average
29.4
23.5
18.0
4.1
3.4
2.9
13.8
10.1
Weighted Average
23.8
19.7
16.4
3.9
3.3
2.7
15.3
13.1
Overall Average
26.5
33.0
19.8
4.6
3.8
3.1
17.5
10.6
Overall Weighted Average
24.2
27.3
20.5
7.7
6.0
4.7
24.5
15.0
Baidu Inc - Spon Adr
Company Report
Source: Bloomberg.
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 6 of 8
Financial Statements and Ratios
2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Year end Dec, USD m
Advertising revenue
640
743
869 1,027 1,221 Cash & cash equivalences
Non-advertising revenue
128
137
157
768
881 1,026 1,226 1,465 A/R
Total revenue
198
244 Short-term investments
Prepaid expenses & others
Cost of revenue
(290)
Gross profit
478
(335) (370) (439) (517) Total current assets
545
656
787
(229)
(230) (257) (295) (343) PPE, net
Product development expenses
(192)
(210) (234) (257) (302) Investment in equity interest
(83)
Others
2015A
2016F
2017F
1,224
904
500
464
2018F
658
943
1,446
2,997
3,331
3,508
260
229
194
165
140
109
140
182
192
200
2,536
2,720
3,873
4,152
4,507
122
948
Sales & Marketing expenses
G&A expenses
2014A
(93) (104) (123) (144) Other assets
47
129
118
0
0
0
0
244
1,595
585
791
1,000
1,168
1,642
714
909
1,122
3,703
4,362
4,587
5,061
5,628
166
12
235
105
Interest & other income, net
29
22
28
45
Income before income taxes
169
46
325
262
324 Accounts payable
4
4
3
3
3
(7)
(10)
(32)
(29)
(37) Accrued liabilities
320
484
547
711
924
Net income
177
26
210
168
206 Income taxes payable
18
16
31
37
44
EPS (USD)
2.722
Income tax expenses
115 Total non-current assets
64
860
49 Total assets
0.426 2.711 2.254 2.824 Others
51
880
878
892
910
393
1,383
1,459
1,643
1,881
Deferred revenue
85
76
68
62
55
Convertible debt
800
0
0
0
0
Total current liabilities
CASH FLOW
Year end Dec, USD m
Net Income
2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Other long-term liabilities
162
36
292
234
287 Total long-term liabilities
Adjustments
Total liabilities
Investment impairment (gain)
20
Stock-based compensation
32
60
68
77
Provision for losses on receivables
22
244
9
0
Changes in WP
Others
Net cash flow from operating activities
(11) (235) (105)
Others
88 Ordinary shares
0 Additional paid-in capital
(5)
47
68
203
(130)
(107)
39
51
101
268
242
460
583 Total shareholders' equity
(103)
(46)
(30)
(21)
(15) Total liabilities & equity
Net cash flow from investing activities
(89)
(192)
26
49
78
90
102
117
140
145
1,282
1,485
1,576
1,783
2,026
(115)
257 Retained earnings
66 Others
MI
Purchases of PPE
4
889
(501) (425) (422) (422) BPS (USD)
9
8
10
10
10
759
759
781
805
829
1,270
1,634
1,841
2,009
2,215
109
164
129
141
153
2,146
2,565
2,762
2,964
3,207
275
311
249
314
395
3,703
4,362
4,587
5,061
5,628
33.037
42.586
35.644
39.799
43.943
(547) (455) (443) (436)
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
Year end Dec, USD m
BALANCE SHEET
7 December 2016
INCOME STATEMENT
FINANCIAL RATIOS
Proceeds from issuance of shares
Repurchase of shares
10
(249)
9
8
8
Others
643
456
306
244
Net cash flow from financing activities
405
(35) (186)
(48)
Effect of exchange rate change
(7)
7 Year end Dec
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
2018F
62.2
61.9
63.9
64.2
64.7
(500) (500) (300) (150) Profitability
(6)
(5)
(5)
196 Gross margin (%)
52 Operating margin (%)
(5.3)
1.4
6.0
9.1
10.9
Net margin (%)
23.0
2.9
20.5
13.7
14.1
ROE (%)
10.6
1.1
7.9
5.9
6.7
(4) ROA (%)
5.4
Net
cash
0.6
Net
cash
4.7
Net
cash
3.5
Net
cash
3.9
Net
cash
Net change in cash & cash equivalents
307
(319) (405)
(36)
194 Net gearing (%)
Cash at the beginning of year
916
1,224
904
500
464 Current ratio
6.5
2.0
2.7
2.5
2.4
904
500
464
658 Debt/equity ratio
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Company Report
Cash at the end of year
1,224
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 7 of 8
Company Rating Definition
The Benchmark: NASDAQ Composite Index
Rating
Definition
Buy
Relative Performance >15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce
Relative Performance is -5% to -15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell
Relative Performance <-15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
7 December 2016
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: NASDAQ Composite Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Definition
Outperform
Relative Performance >5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform
Relative Performance <-5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment
Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or
more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report
within the preceding 12 months.
Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research
Report.
Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research
Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.
DISCLAIMER
This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities
(Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in
research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter
or invest proprietarily).
Sina 新浪 (SINA US)
DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales
persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or
be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.
Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does
not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking
estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and
mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks,
and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.
This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located
in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would
subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
See the last page for disclaimer
Company Report
© 2016 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved.
27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.
Tel.: (852) 2509-9118
Fax: (852) 2509-7793
Website: www.gtja.com.hk
Page 8 of 8