Agribusiness Monthly
July 2016
Australia
Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory July 2016
Commodity Outlook
Grains & Oilseeds
We expect old crop wheat prices to remain range-bound over the coming month, as heavy global stocks are
further bolstered by a large northern hemisphere crop in 2016/17.
Dairy
Most dairy commodity prices have shown some signs of life. But the current price rally is mainly driven by shortterm opportunistic buying by importers and unlikely to be sustained.
Beef
Limited supplies and extensive rain, stimulating restocking activity, continue to support cattle prices and—
although they tempered slightly in July—they are expected to remain strong.
Sheepmeat
With prices upwards of AUD 7/kg being mentioned, there is the possibility a new ESTLI record is in the making
before winter finishes.
Sugar
The ICE #11 has traded between USc 19/lb to USc 20.8/lb through the last month, while it has jumped around with
fund activity. The strengthened Australian dollar has seen AUD prices fall some 8% MOM.
Cotton
The ICE #2 made a break on 12 July, cutting through its trading range and gaining some USc 8 in just a day’s
trading. Trading, at a high of USc 75/lb, represents a three-year high and 16% jump between 1 July and 19 July.
Wool
As attention turns to the outlook for 2016/17, early supply estimates suggest volumes will be marginally behind
2015/16 levels.
Wine
Fertiliser
FX
Oil
A strong lift in national wine production is foreshadowed in the South Australian wine grape survey.
Global phosphate demand remains subdued, with many importers and buyers preferring to run down existing
stocks and delaying new purchasing.
Global events have given support to the Australian dollar in recent weeks, but gravity should be set to take hold.
Although oil markets appear to have found more of a balance, a smooth ride ahead is far from a certainty, with
large global stocks and precarious global economic conditions clouding the oil price outlook.
QLD Receives Unseasonable Rain, Wet Outlook
Total rainfall month to date, 1-20 July 2016
Parts of Queensland received well above average
rainfall throughout July, as unseasonable rainfall
extended well into central QLD. Areas of southern NSW,
Victoria, SA and WA also received decent falls.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has
kept the La Niña status at ‘WATCH’. The likelihood of
La Niña developing in the second half of 2016 remains
at 50%, despite weather models recently indicating
more normal conditions are forming in the tropical
Pacific Ocean.
Source: BOM, Rabobank 2016
Above-average rainfall is forecast for the JulySeptember period. The majority of Australia can
expect above-average falls, with NSW, SA and southern
QLD the most likely to see well above average rainfall.
What to watch
•
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The negative IOD has strengthened in recent weeks, and climate models are suggesting that
the negative IOD will persist through to the end of spring. Illustrating the strength of the negative IOD, the IOD index hit its most
negative value in the past 15 years in mid-July. Negative IOD events typically bring higher-than-average winter and spring
rainfall to Australia’s southern states.
La Niña Status Remains at ‘WATCH’
Chance of exceeding median rainfall,
July to September 2016
La Niña status at ‘WATCH’
Source: BOM, Rabobank 2016
Source: BOM, Rabobank 2016
Wheat Prices Hover around Ten-Year Lows
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices hit ten-year lows in July, erasing the gains seen
in late May and June. The CBOT wheat price fell 12% from the middle of June through to the
time of writing, to USc 418/bu. Favourable weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have
fuelled speculation of another bumper global crop in 2016/17, leading to the drop in prices.
Illustrating the extent of global wheat production, the USDA is forecasting record production in
2016/17, increasing their estimate of production by a further 7m tonnes in their July WASDE, to
739m tonnes (up 1% YOY).
Domestic wheat prices have reacted to falls on global markets, dropping to levels not seen
since June 2012. The ASX wheat price reached AUD 252/tonne in mid-July, falling 9% in the
space of a month. This being said, domestic prices have been bid down at a slower rate than
global prices, as Australian farmers remain reluctant to sell old crop at current prices.
Rain has continued to fall across large swathes of the Australian cropping belt, inciting some
concern that areas are becoming too wet. Despite some concerns around the soggy nature of
the crop, on the whole, the Australian winter crop remains in good condition, and a large crop is
expected come harvest. Rabobank is forecasting a wheat crop of 26.7m tonnes, up 10% YOY.
We expect old crop wheat prices to remain range-bound over the coming month, as heavy
global stocks are further bolstered by a large Northern Hemisphere crop in 2016/17. Any price
rallies are likely to be capped by the sheer extent of global wheat stocks.
Grains &
Oilseeds
What to watch
•
Northern Hemisphere harvest. Large wheat-producing areas—such as the US,
the EU and the Black Sea—are entering the crucial harvest period. Early yields have
been reported as favourable across most cropping regions; however, the coming
month will be important in determining the depth of global wheat stocks as we
move towards the Australian 2016/17 harvest.
Favourable Weather Busts G&O Rally
Global G&O prices, July 2012-July 2016
375
2,000
900
1,800
800
1,600
700
1,400
600
1,200
500
1,000
400
800
300
600
200
400
700
350
325
300
550
275
475
250
225
400
ASX Jan 17 wheat contract (LHS)
CBOT Dec 16 wheat contract (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank, 2016
USc/bu
625
USc/bu
AUD/tonne
1,000
Wheat
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank, 2016
Corn
Soybeans (RHS)
USc/bu
Australian wheat price, July 2015-July 2016
Slowly, Slowly for the Global
Market Rebalance
Most dairy commodity prices have shown some signs of life. But the current
price rally is mainly driven by short-term opportunistic buying by importers and
unlikely to be sustained.
Rabobank still expects a more sustained global market recovery in 1H 2017.
Global milk supply growth continues to slow, though global stocks still need to
be cleared.
Australian milk producers are adjusting to a reset in milk prices. The number
of cows culled in Australia in May and June rose 36% YOY. Attractive livestock
prices supported the decision to reduce stocking rates.
The farmgate milk price league encompasses a big spread. Across the export
regions, the average reported FMP spread was as much AUD 1/kgMS.
What to watch
Dairy
•
The European Commission has announced another support package for their dairy
producers. In total this is a EUR 500m package. This time, EUR 150m of this is earmarked to
help incentivise production cuts.
•
Milk production across the other major export regions continues to slow and should
continue that trend. Production contracted in Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and
Brazil. Milk production is growing again in the US, but in line with domestic market demand.
Milk Production across the Export Engines
Continues to Slow
Global dairy prices, 2012-2016
Production growth, key exporting regions
6,000
Latest month
Last three months
EU
0.4% (May)
2.4%
US
1.1% (May)
1.3%
Australia
-5.5% (May)
-4.1%
NZ
-1.6% (complete 2015/2016 season)
5,000
USD/tonne FOB
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Butter
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2016
SMP
WMP
Cheese
Source: Rabobank 2016
Prices Remain Strong
Limited supplies and extensive rain, stimulating restocking activity, continue to support
cattle prices and—although they tempered slightly in July—they are expected to remain
strong. The EYCI set new weekly records through the month of June and only tempered slightly
in July, to sit at AUD 6.56/kg cwt on 14 July. Such prices are getting close to the all-time record:
the comparable national yearling price, when adjusted for inflation, shows that the high prices in
the 1970s were in the range of AUD 7.00/kg.
Such high cattle prices, however, are not being completely worn by the consumer, and
margins in the supply chain are being put under immense pressure, resulting in processing
plants closing for short periods or dropping shifts. The domestic retail price of beef in the 1970s,
when adjusted for inflation, was around AUD 22/kg. The current average retail price is just under
AUD 20/kg. Furthermore, the US import price for 90CL cow meat remains flat at AUD 6/kg, with
the AUD/USD exchange rate bouncing between AUc 74 and AUc 76.
Slaughter numbers are still down, with 719,800 head slaughtered in May, 13% lower YOY. Female
slaughter numbers have risen again, to 52% of the total kill, after being 46% in March, a trend
that is contrary to herd rebuilding, but may reflect culling decisions in April/May, before recent
rain commenced.
June exports were down 20% YOY, at 95,454 tonnes swt and just under the five-year average.
South Korea is the standout market for 2016, with exports 4% higher than 2015 and 30%
higher than the five-year average for the first six months of the year.
What to watch
•
Beef
The first shipment of Indian bovine product into Indonesia is expected to land shortly.
With the shipment only 10,000 tonnes (Australia has exported 33,101 tonnes swt June
YTD and 39,134 tonnes swt in total for 2015), the festive period around Ramadan over
and Indonesian exposure to buffalo meat being limited, it is not expected to have a
large impact. However, any influence on Indonesian beef prices and the reaction of the
Indonesian consumer will be interesting to watch.
EYCI Remains Strong
Eastern Young Cattle Indicator
Australian beef exports to South Korea
700
18,000
650
16,000
600
14,000
12,000
tonnes swt
AUc/kg cwt
550
500
450
10,000
8,000
6,000
400
4,000
350
2,000
300
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014
Source: MLA, Rabobank 2016
2015
2016
5 yr ave
2013
2014
2016
5 yr ave
Source: MLA, Rabobank 2016
2015
Within Reach of Record Prices
The ESTLI got within a hair of the all-time record of AUD 6.62/kg, set in March 2011, when it
reached AUD 6.45/kg in late June. Unlike 2011, however, where it was a supply-driven situation
with production at a six-year low, current prices are being driven by strong demand. Given dry
conditions at the start of the year, there may still be some lambs being finished, which may
tempt buyers to offer higher prices in order to secure them. With prices upwards of AUD 7/kg
being mentioned, there is the possibility a new ESTLI record is in the making before winter
finishes.
Lamb production for May (45,759 tonnes ) was up 7% YOY, bringing the year-to-date
production up to 224,522 tonnes, a 3% increase YOY. Queensland production is well down,
with volumes almost 80% lower than the five-year average, reflecting the closure of the
Wallangarra processing plant in May. Sheep slaughter, while slightly higher year-on-year for NSW,
is lower in Victoria, and nationally, it is tracking very close to 2015 and the five-year average.
Lamb exports increased 7% YOY, to 21,049 tonnes swt for June. China made strong gains in
June, increasing 83% YOY to become the second-largest market behind the Middle East and
occupying 21% of total exports. China, however, is one of the lower-value markets, with per unit
export values of AUD 4.19/kg, compared to the average export unit value of AUD 7.19/kg. Mutton
exports dropped 16% YOY, to 7,570 tonnes swt, in what is usually the low point of the year.
Mutton volumes to the Middle East were down 16% YOY.
What to watch
Sheepmeat
•
In 2015, lamb prices remained strong through to September. In 2014, prices
started to drop in June. The five-year average prices start dropping in late July.
With the possibility that there might be some lambs still available—given the drier
conditions earlier in the year—and with continuing strong demand, buyers may
chase these lambs, and prices may remain firm into August.
ESTLI Heading towards a New Record
Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator
Australian lamb exports to China
700
5,000
4,500
650
4,000
3,500
550
tonnes swt
AUc/kg cwt
600
500
3,000
2,500
2,000
450
1,500
400
1,000
350
500
0
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014
Source: MLA, Rabobank 2016
2015
2016
5 year average
2014
2015
Source: DAWR, Rabobank 2016
2016
5 yr ave
Sugar Remains Sweet
The ICE #11 has traded between USc 19/lb and USc 20.8/lb through the last month, while it
has jumped around with fund activity. The strengthened Australian dollar has seen AUD prices
fall some 8% MOM. It remained, however, at an average of AUD 582/tonne over the last month,
some 20% above the average for 2016.
The Australian sugar crush is facing some weather challenges, with widespread rain across
Queensland causing some delays for harvest and impacting CCS levels. With an estimated
35mt of cane to be crushed, these delays have not been welcomed. In 2015, there had been
nine weeks of crushing complete by mid-July, compared with the seven in 2016, for an
additional 1.2mt of cane. With above-average rainfall forecast to continue, progress will be
closely watched.
Global prices continue to find support from large (although reduced) fund positions, as well
as fundamentals. The Brazilian harvest has benefited from some dry weather, and it saw both
sugar content and sugar mix increase in June. Forecasts indicate these dry conditions are set to
continue in the near term, supporting their production.
Indian production remains a big question mark. While improved monsoon conditions look
set to boost volumes in 2017/18, the Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasts continue to fall for
the 2016/17 season, and they currently sit 7.3% below production in 2015/16.
What to watch
•
The Brazilian Real has remained stronger than expected. The economic and political
situation remains uncertain. Rabobank expects the real to settle back at BRL 3.5/USD from its
current level near BRL 3.2/USD.
•
Negotiations are underway in Wilmar districts, with draft proposals for CSAs with
growers and on-supply agreements with QSL having been presented.
Sugar
Sugar Prices Looking to Find Their Range
22
630
600
20
570
USc/lb
510
480
16
450
420
14
AUD/tonne
540
18
390
360
12
330
10
300
ICE #11 (LHS)
ICE #11 AUD (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
While dropping back off the highs seen in early July, prices remain strong in both USD and AUD terms.
Cotton Leaps into a New Range
The ICE #2 made a break on 12 July, cutting through its trading range and gaining
some USc 8 in just a day’s trading. Trading at a high of USc 75/lb represents a threeyear high and 16% jump between 1 July and 19 July.
The sharp jump in prices came after the USDA July WASDE was released. Although
the WASDE raised the US 2016/17 production forecast by over a million bales, on the
back of higher acreage reported at the end of June, consumption was expected to
improve, and, as a result, ending stocks were lower than anticipated.
Chinese consumption was lifted some 1.5m bales in the recent report, assisting a
reduction in estimated world ending stocks by some 3.4m bales, compared with
June’s estimate. Reduced production in India and Pakistan was also reflected by some
500,000 bales and 1m bales, respectively.
Optimism in the market remains. Export demand has helped to provide support for
the market, as the availability of cotton in China has declined (caused by sluggish
logistics and bottlenecks to get fibre out of the stockpile), contributing to a boost in
import demand throughout the month.
What to watch
Cotton
•
While the rally in cotton has been welcomed, competitive fibres have
not fared quite as well, with the price gap between them widening. It
will be telling for underlying demand as to whether there is still activity at
this new price level.
Cotton Prices Rise Sharply
95
500
480
460
85
440
75
400
380
AUD/bale
USc/lb
420
360
65
340
320
55
300
COTLOOKA Index
ICE #2 Futures
AUD/Bale (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
The ICE #12 has gained 16% since the start of July, as the USDA WASDE reported some bullish demand factors.
Second-Highest Close for Wool
Despite falling AUc 9 in the final week of selling before the three-week recess, the Australian
EMI is up 3% since mid-June and some 7% YOY, at AUc 1,311/kg clean. Three weeks of price
gains helped the 2015/16 season to the second-highest close on record, at AUc 1,297/kg. The
gains also showed some positive demand signals, with the EMI in USD terms also appreciating,
as the dollar strengthened through the end of June.
Bale offers for the 2015/16 season were 8% down YOY, reflecting a decrease in supply, which is
forecast to be 7% down YOY. Total wool tested is also down 7% YOY for the 2015/16 season.
While supply of wool tested finer than 17.5 micron continued to hold strong, the largest falls were
in the 21.5 micron to 23.5 micron categories.
May wool exports saw a sizeable decline in volume, down almost 20% on the heavily inflated
volumes shipped in May 2015. Year-to-date, the 10% reduction in volumes exported reflects the
above-estimated reduction in supply.
As attention turns to the outlook for 2016/17, early supply estimates suggest volumes will be
marginally behind 2015/16 levels. Reduced supply and continued forecast for further
depreciation of the Australian dollar holds potential for the strong prices experienced through
2015/16 to continue.
.
What to watch
Wool
•
The performance of particular wool types in the upcoming season has a number of variables
set to influence markets. Two critical factors would be whether the strength of demand
for shorter types continues and how the likely improved seasons in a number of key
wool-growing areas will impact both fleece weights and supply of finer micron wool.
Both factors have been key drivers of price levels and price differentials in 2015/16.
Wool Closes at Second-Highest Level on Record
1,400
1,350
1,300
1,250
AUc/kg
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
2015
2016
At AUc 1,311/kg clean, the Australian EMI is up 3% since mid-June and some 7% YOY.
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
Strong Rise in Wine Production
Australian wine exports increased by 0.5% in volume and 11% in value, to 728ML and
AUD 2.11bn FOB, respectively, in the 12 months to June 2016. While the Chinese and
Hong Kong markets continue to contribute the lion’s share of the growth in export
demand, there have been other notable pockets of growth for Australian premium
wines over the past year—for example, in the US and Canada.
The first official indications of the size of the 2016 Australian vintage are coming to light,
with wine grape production in South Australia—Australia’s largest wine-producing
state—estimated to have grown by 14% on the prior year, to 818kt. This is the largest
crop in ten years and a significant departure from the crops we have seen in recent years,
which have all moved in a narrow range of 680kt to 720kt.
The lift in wine production is even more remarkable due to the fact that production in
the warm inland region of the Riverland (typically ~60% of South Australian production)
only increased by 1% YOY. The majority of increased production came from the cool and
temperate climate regions, many of which experienced rises in the order of 20% to 40%
YOY. Average wine grape prices across the state also increased, from AUD 577/tonne to
AUD 631/tonne in 2016, reflecting both the larger weighting to more premium regions,
as well as annual price gains in many individual regions.
What to watch
Wine
•
The size of the national wine grape crop in 2016 will be announced later this
month, with expectations now set for a significantly larger crop than that seen
over recent years.
Strong Rise in South Australian Wine Production
1,000
900
volume ('000 tonnes)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Vinehealth Australia, Rabobank 2016
Favourable growing conditions have seen wine production in Australia’s largest wine-producing state
reach a ten-year high in 2016 and break out of its narrow range of recent years.
Well-Balanced Global Markets
With energy costs accounting for a large portion of nitrogen production costs, low
global energy prices are keeping pressure on global nitrogen fertiliser prices.
Global phosphate demand remains subdued, with many importers and buyers
preferring to run down existing stocks and delaying new purchasing.
Global potash demand remains weak. The absence of agreement in supply contracts
in China and limited demand from India are key trends.
What to watch
Fertiliser
•
The USD/AUD exchange rate remains volatile and is always a significant factor in
the price of local fertiliser.
•
Global freight rates are showing some signs of life. This may put some pressure
on landed prices locally.
Fertiliser Prices Steady at Low Levels
550
500
450
USD/tonne
400
350
300
250
200
150
Urea
DAP
Source: Bloomberg , Rabobank 2016
Urea and DAP prices remain close to their lowest levels in years in USD terms. The outlook suggest little upside is on the
horizon in the short term.
Global Events Lift Australian Dollar
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) elected to leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.75%
following its meeting on 6 July. A period of stability was widely anticipated following the
surprise move to cut rates in May, which has been further supported (at least on face value) by a
strong GDP print. Annual growth in Australian GDP accelerated to 3.1% in Q1 2016, assisted
by the strongest rate of annual growth in household consumption in over four years. There
was some reason to question the strength of the data, however, as statistical price adjustments
flattered the strong bounce in net exports.
The biggest influence on global currency markets over the past month has come courtesy of a
desperate pursuit of safe haven and yield by global investors. With interest rates in Australia still
significantly higher than elsewhere in the developed world, demand for AAA-rated Australian
government bonds has pushed ten-year bond prices to their highest level on record. This,
combined with a rally in the iron ore price, has helped the AUD to post gains over recent weeks.
Elsewhere, the future trajectory of US interest rates remains in question, with the prospect of a US
rate rise later this year still in the balance. A more positive June US non-farm payrolls report helped
to restore some confidence that momentum in the labour market remains intact. Despite some
evidence of price pressures emerging in the economy, the US Federal Reserve has signalled its
intent to adopt a more dovish stance and postpone any further interest rate increases, at least
until recent global uncertainties dissipate.
What to watch
FX
•
We forecast AUD/USD falling towards 0.68 on a 12-month view. Recent Australian
dollar strength has begun to peter out. Another interest rate cut remains squarely on
the agenda for this year, which, when combined with soft commodity prices, should
cause the Australian dollar to give up further ground over the coming year.
0.85
66
0.83
65
0.80
64
0.78
63
0.75
62
0.73
61
0.70
60
0.68
59
0.65
58
AUD/USD
TWI (rhs)
Source: RBA, Rabobank 2016
The Australian dollar appreciated throughout July, as investors valued Australia’s comparatively high interest
rates, and commodity prices improved.
Trade Weighted Index
Global Events Lift Australian Dollar
Volatility Eases in Oil Markets
Crude oil has traded sideways over the past month, trading in a range from USD
47/barrel to USD 51/barrel. Q2 2016 marked a significant reduction in volatility in oil
prices, after what can only be described as a tumultuous preceding 12 months. Oil
markets have shown an astounding transformation—from large surpluses in early
2016 to near balance come the middle of the year. Although oil markets appear to
have found more of a balance, a smooth ride ahead is far from a certainty, with large
global stocks and precarious global economic conditions clouding the oil price
outlook.
Diesel prices have eased over the past month, tracking crude oil prices lower. The
Sydney average terminal gate diesel price sits at AUD 1.04 at the time of writing,
down from AUD 1.08 at the end of June. The terminal gate fuel price is the price at
which fuel is sold to wholesale customers from seaboard import terminals.
Freight rates increased through July, as strong demand for bulk commodities
drove a rebound in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI currently sits at 746, nudging
above its 2015 average of 718 and well above the low of 290 reached in February 2016.
Oil &
Freight
What to watch
•
European demand for oil. Robust European demand for oil supported global demand
growth in Q2 2016, helping to bring some balance to previously oversupplied global oil
markets. Fallout from the Brexit vote and its impact on European economic conditions
(and hence oil demand) will be important in determining global oil demand growth.
•
The strength of the Australian dollar. The outlook for interest rates continues to
impact the Australian dollar—and consequently diesel prices.
Oil Steadies, Freight Rates Lift
USD/BBL
Brent Crude Oil price, July 2015-July 2016
Baltic Dry Index, July 2015-July 2016
70
1,500
60
1,250
50
1,000
40
750
30
500
20
250
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
Agri Price Dashboard
As of 20 July 2016
Unit
MOM
Current
Last month
Last year
Grains & Oilseeds
CBOT Wheat
USc/bu
▼
418
459
525
CBOT Soybeans
USc/bu
▼
1,044
1,133
1,019
CBOT Corn
USc/bu
▼
342
396
407
Australian ASX EC Wheat
AUD/tonne
▼
247
276
317
Australian Canola
AUD/tonne
▼
489
528
544
Eastern Young Cattle Indicator
AUc/kg cwt
▲
660
634
545
Feeder Steer
AUc/kg lwt
▲
359
347
301
North Island Bull 300kg
NZc/kg cwt
•
540
540
562
South Island Bull 300kg
NZc/kg cwt
•
500
500
540
Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator
AUc/kg cwt
▲
639
610
586
North Island Lamb 17.5kg YX
NZc/kg cwt
▲
545
540
525
South Island Lamb 17.5kg YX
NZc/kg cwt
▲
525
510
520
North Island Stag
NZc/kg cwt
▲
785
770
675
South Island Stag
NZc/kg cwt
▲
795
770
660
Butter
USD/tonne FOB
▲
2,963
2,725
2,913
Skim Milk Powder
USD/tonne FOB
▲
1,925
1,850
1,938
Whole Milk Powder
USD/tonne FOB
▲
2,200
2,138
2,138
Cheddar
USD/tonne FOB
▲
2,850
2,800
3,225
Beef markets
Sheepmeat markets
Venison markets
Dairy Markets
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
Agri Price Dashboard
As of 20 July 2016
Unit
MOM
Current
Last month
Last year
Cotton markets
Cotlook A Index
USc/lb
▲
85
75
72
ICE #2 NY Futures (nearby contract)
USc/lb
▲
72.96
62.85
65.4
ICE Sugar #11
USc/lb
▲
19.4
19.2
11.4
ICE Sugar #11 (AUD)
AUD/tonne
▼
569
569
339
Australian Eastern Market Indicator
AUc/kg
▼
0
1,279
1,221
NZ Coarse Crossbred Indicator
NZc/kg
▼
504
550
561
NZ Fine Crossbred indicator
NZc/kg
▼
531
566
635
Urea
USD/tonne FOB
▼
185
210
285
DAP
USD/tonne FOB
▼
340
347
470
Potash
USD/tonne FOB
▲
241
238
315
Baltic Dry Index
1000=1985
▲
746
580
1,113
Brent Crude Oil
USD/bbl
▼
47
50
56
AUD
vs. USD
▲
0.750
0.745
0.742
NZD
vs. USD
▼
0.705
0.712
0.663
RBA Official Cash Rate
%
•
1.75
1.75
2.00
NZRB Official Cash Rate
%
•
2.25
2.25
3.25
Sugar markets
Wool markets
Fertiliser
Other
Economics/currency
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2016
Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory
Tim Hunt
Head of Food & Agribusiness Research and
Advisory, Australia and New Zealand
+61 3 9940 8406
[email protected]
Marc Soccio
Senior Analyst – Wine, Horticulture & Rural
Economics
+61 3 9940 8437
[email protected]
Michael Harvey
Senior Analyst – Dairy and Farm
Inputs
+61 3 9940 8407
[email protected]
Graydon Chong
Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds
+61 2 8115 4091
[email protected]
Angus Gidley-Baird
Senior Analyst – Animal Proteins
+ 61 2 8115 4058
[email protected]
Matthew Costello
Analyst – Animal Proteins
+61 2 8115 2233
[email protected]
Georgia Twomey
Commodity Analyst
+61 2 8115 2446
[email protected]
Emma Higgins
Dairy Analyst
+64 3 961 2908
[email protected]
Ben Larkin
Agricultural Analyst
+61 2 8115 2741
[email protected]
Maddie Armstrong
Business Coordinator
+61 2 8115 4157
[email protected]
Rabobank Australia
Nearest branch call 1300 30 30 33
www.rabobank.com.au
This document is issued by a Rabobank Group member. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. This document is for
information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or a commitment by any Rabobank Group member to enter into a transaction.
This information is not professional advice and has not been prepared to be used as the basis for, and should not be used as the basis for, any financial or strategic
decisions. This information is general in nature only and does not take into account an individual’s personal circumstances. All opinions expressed in this
document are subject to change without notice. No Rabobank Group member accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss
or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This document may not be reproduced,
distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, except with the prior written consent of a Rabobank Group member. By accepting this document
you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions. All copyright is reserved ©