Kansas Newspaper Poll
Final Report
Prepared For
Wichita Eagle, Topeka Capital-Journal, Salina Journal, Hutchinson News, Lawrence JournalWorld, Hays Daily News, Garden City Telegram, Great Bend Tribune, and Ottawa Herald
By
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs
Fort Hays State University
Copyright © July 2016
All Rights Reserved
Fort Hays State University
600 Park Street
Hays, Kansas 67601-4099
Telephone: (785) 628-4197
FAX: (785) 628-4188
www.fhsu.edu/docking
Gary Brinker, PhD
Director
Michael S. Walker, MS
Assistant Director
Jian Sun, PhD
Research Scientist
Lynette Ottley
Administrative Associate
Bradley Pendergast, MPA
Survey Center Manager
Mission:
To Facilitate Effective Public Policy Decision-Making.
The staff of the Docking Institute of Public Affairs and its
University Center for Survey Research are dedicated to
serving the people of Kansas and surrounding states.
Kansas Newspaper Poll
Final Report
Prepared By:
Bradley Pendergast, MPA
Survey Center Manager
Gary Brinker, Ph.D.
Director
Jian Sun, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Chapman Rackaway, Ph.D.
Senior Policy Fellow
Michael Smith, Ph.D
Policy Fellow
Ryan L. Swayne
Student Research Supervisor
Docking Institute of Public Affairs
Prepared For:
Wichita Eagle, Topeka Capital-Journal, Salina Journal, Hutchinson News, Lawrence JournalWorld, Hays Daily News, Garden City Telegram, Great Bend Tribune and Ottawa Herald
In pursuit of
Fort Hays State University’s Public Affairs Mission
Copyright © July 2016
All Rights Reserved
Introduction and Methods
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University surveyed a random sample
of adult residents of Kansas age 18 to measure their intentions to participate in the upcoming
presidential primary election, candidates they intended to support, choice for the general election
given a hypothetical pair of candidates, job satisfaction ratings for Kansas elected officials and
policy preferences for some controversial issues in Kansas.
The survey sample consisted of random Kansas landline telephone numbers and cellphone
numbers. From July 11th to the 21st, a total of 1,975 Kansas residents were contacted through
either landline telephone or cellphone, and 765 of them completed the survey. This results in a
39% cooperation rate. In order to obtain accurate estimates of the District 1 Congressional Race,
that geographical area was over-sampled. The data were then weighted to accommodate equal
representation in the statewide statistics. At a 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the
weighted sample of 487 is 4.4%. A margin of error of 4.4% means that there is a 95%
probability that findings among the sample vary no more than +/- 4.4% from the value that
would be found if the entire population of interest (adult Kansas residents) were surveyed,
assuming no response bias. The percentage of males and females in the sample were similar to
the Kansas population.
For questions about the 1st Congressional Districts Republican Primary, the sample size was 210,
which results in a margin of error of 6.76%. A margin of error of 6.76% means that there is a
95% probability that findings among the sample vary no more than +/- 6.76% from the value that
would be found if the entire population of interest (adult Kansas 1st Congressional District
registered Republicans) were surveyed, assuming no response bias. The percentage of males and
females in the sample were similar to the Kansas 1st Congressional District population.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................1
Section 1: 2016 Election ..................................................................................................................3
Section 2: Satisfaction with Government Officials .....................................................................…5
Section 3: Policy Issues ...................................................................................................................8
Section 4: Demographics ...............................................................................................................11
Appendix A: Survey Instrument ....................................................................................................13
Executive Summary

Donald Trump (44%) holds a 17-point advantage over Hillary Clinton (27%) for
the presidential election in Kansas.

The 1st Congressional Kansas Republican Primary election between Tim
Huelskamp and Roger Marshall is too close to call.

Three-fifths (60%) of respondents are at least “Somewhat Dissatisfied” with
President Barrack Obama.

Over three-quarters (77%) of respondents are at least “Somewhat Dissatisfied”
with Governor Sam Brownback.

About two-fifths (42%) of respondents are at least “Somewhat Satisfied” with
U.S. Senator Jerry Moran.

Three-fifths (60%) of respondents are at least “Somewhat Dissatisfied” with the
Kansas Legislature in general.

About two-thirds (67%) of respondents would not vote for President Obama if he
were hypothetically running for reelection.

Almost four-fifths (79%) of respondents would not vote for Governor Brownback if
they were hypothetically running for reelection today.

Almost four-fifths (79%) of respondents would not vote for Governor Brownback if
he were hypothetically running for reelection today.

Forty-five percent of respondents would vote for Senator Moran if he were
hypothetically running for reelection today.

One-quarter (25%) of respondents would rate the Kansas economy as at least
“Good,” and over one-third (37%) of respondents would rate it as “Poor” or “Very
Poor.”

Over two-thirds (69%) of respondents were at least “Somewhat Dissatisfied” with
the Kansas Legislature’s handling of the school finance issue.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 1

Less than half (46%) of respondents were at least “Somewhat Dissatisfied” with
the Kansas Supreme Court’s handling of the school finance issue.

Almost one-third (32%) of respondents said they at least “Somewhat Support”
the recently passed school finance bill.

Seventy-one percent of respondents at least “Somewhat Support” banning the
sale of firearms to persons on the no-fly list.

Over half (52%) of respondents at least “Somewhat Support” banning the sale of
military style assault rifles to citizens, while 41% at least “Somewhat Oppose”.

Forty-five percent of respondents at least “Somewhat Support” banning the sale
of high capacity (over 10 rounds) magazines to citizens, while 45% at least
“Somewhat Oppose.”

Almost half (49%) of respondents feel that transgender students should be
required to use only the bathroom that matches their biological sex. One-fourth
(25%) would allow transgender students to use the bathroom of the gender with
which they identify.

Over two-thirds (67%) of respondents feel the Federal Government overstepped
their authority when issuing a mandate to allow individuals to use the bathroom
of the gender with which they self-identify with and should, instead, allow the
states to make their own regulations.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 2
Section 1: 2016 Election
If the Presidential election were held today, who would you be
most likely to vote for? (Likely Voters Only) (n=542)
Donald Trump
44%
Hillary Clinton
27%
Gary Johnson 7%
Some Other
Candidate 6%
Don’t Know 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Among likely voters, Donald Trump holds a 17 point advantage over Hillary Clinton in
the race for President. This is well outside the margin of error, suggesting that if the
election were held today, Trump would be highly likely to win the Kansas electoral
votes. However, 16% were still undecided, enough to push Clinton ahead if the majority
of undecided lean Democratic.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 3
1st District Republican Congressional Primary (n=176)
Tim
Huelskamp
40.3%
Don’t Know
15.3%
Roger
Marshall
40.9%
Other
3.4%
One hundred and seventy-six likely voters polled from the First Congressional District
were equally divided in their support for the two contenders for the Republican nominee.
With 15% still undecided, this race is much too close to call.
Candidate Prefrences among Likely and Somewhat Likely Voters for
the 1st District Kansas Congressional Republican Primary (n=176)
Very Likely
40%
Somewhat
Likely
44%
31%
42%
0%
Tim Huelskamp
20%
4%
40%
Roger Marshall
12%
28%
60%
Other
80%
100%
Don’t Know
A follow-up question asking about the respondent’s self-reported likelihood to vote in the
Kansas Primary Election offers insight into the Marshall/Huelskamp tie. Respondents
who indicated that they were Very Likely to vote in the 1st District Kansas Congressional
Republican Primary were slightly more likely to support Marshall over Huelskamp.
Respondents who indicated they were Somewhat Likely to vote were much more likely
to support Huelskamp.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 4
Section 2: Satisfaction with Government Officials
Satisfaction with President Barack Obama's Performance
July 2016
15%
17%
February
2016
13%
21%
October
2015
11%
20%
Very Satisfied
12%
48%
17%
7%
8%
17%
0%
9%
15%
48%
40%
Somewhat Satisfied
43%
60%
Neutral
80%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
100%
Very Dissatisfied
Satisfaction with President Obama has hovered around 30% since October 2015, with
about 60% expressing dissatisfaction through this period.
Satisfaction with Governor Brownback's Performance
July 2016 4%
February 2016
11%
6%
13%
10%
October 2012
17%
15%
October 2015 5%
October 2013
9%
10%
13%
0%
16%
53%
21%
25%
48%
24%
20%
28%
12%
Very Satisfied
60%
20%
Somewhat Satisfied
40%
Neutral
60%
14%
28%
13%
28%
80%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
100%
Very Dissatisfied
Governor Brownback enjoyed between 35% and 40% approval until fall of 2014. Over
the subsequent year, satisfaction with the Governor dropped to below 20%. The latest
poll suggests that only 15% of Kansans are at least “somewhat satisfied” with Governor
Brownback, while over three-fourth express some level of dissatisfaction. The percent
who are “very dissatisfied” has hit a new high of 60%, while no more than 6% of
respondents in the Docking Institute’s last two statewide polls have indicated that they
were “very satisfied” with the Governor’s job performance.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 5
Satisfaction with Senator Jerry Moran's Performance
July 2016
10%
February
2016
11%
October
2015
11%
23%
32%
27%
24%
20%
Very Satisfied
40%
Somewhat Satisfied
Neutral
16%
22%
29%
31%
0%
20%
11%
20%
60%
15%
80%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
100%
Very Dissatisfied
Satisfaction with Jerry Moran, like with President Obama, has been fairly stable since
fall of 2015, though the Senator’s satisfaction levels are about 10 percentage point
higher. Senator Moran also has more “neutral” evaluations than the President.
Satisfaction with the Kansas Legislature in General
2%
July 2016
February 2016
3%
October 2015
4%
October 2014 4%
23%
15%
22%
15%
25%
25%
31%
21%
23%
32%
October 2012 3%
27%
27%
Very Satisfied
30%
27%
33%
21%
October 2013 4%
0%
35%
20%
Somewhat Satisfied
40%
Neutral
24%
22%
21%
20%
21%
20%
60%
22%
80%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
100%
Very Dissatisfied
The growth in dissatisfaction with the Kansas Legislature since 2012 mirrors that of the
Governor, temporally, but the decline is not as extreme as for Governor Brownback.
This suggests that Kansans are attributing more of their dissatisfaction with the State’s
current fiscal problems to the Governor, while still holding the Legislature somewhat
culpable. Unlike the Governor, satisfaction with the legislature has remained fairly
stable, dropping only a few points. Most of the change with the legislature has been
people moving from neutral to dissatisfied.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 6
Satisfaction with President Obama and
Governor Brownback's Performance
Governor
4%
Brownback
President
Barack
Obama
11%
9%
Very Satisfied
60%
9%
17%
15%
0%
17%
20%
12%
48%
40%
Somewhat Satisfied
Neutral
60%
80%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
100%
Very Dissatisfied
This graph shows comparative distributions for the latest satisfaction measures for the
President and Governor. It shows that 17% more Kansans are very satisfied with
President Obama, and 17% more are dissatisfied with the Governor than the President.
Would you vote for the following politicans if they were
hypothetically running for re-election? (Likely Voters Only) (n=397)
President
Barack
Obama
31%
Gov. Sam
Brownback
17%
Senator Jerry
Moran
67%
3%
5%
79%
19%
45%
0%
20%
Yes
40%
37%
60%
Don't Know
80%
100%
No
Respondents were asked of three elected officials whether they would vote for that
candidate if an election were held today. Results suggest that Kansans would be
somewhat likely re-elect Jerry Moran, but two-thirds indicated they would not vote to reelect President Obama, and only one-fifth, at best, said they would vote to re-elect
Governor Brownback.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 7
Section 3: Policy Issues
Rating of the Kansas Economy
July 2016
3%
October
2015
5%
October
2014
October
2013
October
2012
22%
38%
32%
23%
14%
38%
17%
9%
2%
36%
12%
35%
12%
3%
1%
11%
33%
42%
13% 1%
1%
37%
9%
0%
Excellent
34%
20%
40%
Very good
Good
15%
60%
80%
Fair
4%
100%
Poor
Very Poor
This graphs shows changes in respondent’s ratings of the Kansas economy. It shows a
continuous decline since fall of 2013, with the percent saying the economy is poor or
very poor increasing by 23% and the percent saying the economy is very good or
excellent declining from 12% to 3%. Virtually no respondents have rated the Kansas
economy as excellent since 2014.
Level of Satisfaction with the Kansas Legislature's and
Supreme Court's Handling of the School Funding Issue
Kansas
Supreme
Court
13%
20%
22%
21%
24%
1%
Kansas
Legislature
10%
0%
Very Satisfied
19%
20%
Somewhat Satisfied
25%
40%
Neutral
44%
60%
80%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
100%
Very Dissatisfied
When asked separately about the Kansas Supreme Court and Kansas Legislature’s
handling of the recent school funding controversy, respondents were considerably more
likely to place the blame on the legislature. Sixty-nine percent expressed dissatisfaction
with the legislature, while only 46% expressed dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court.
There was a 20 point difference in the percent “very dissatisfied.” To prevent recency
bias, these two questions were randomized, with half of respondents getting the
Supreme Court question first and half getting the legislature question first.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 8
Level of Support or Opposition for the Recently Passed School Finance
Bill to Meet the Equity Standards Set by the Kansas Supreme Court
5%
0%
27%
10%
20%
Strongly Support
34%
30%
40%
Somewhat Support
21%
50%
60%
Neutral
70%
14%
80%
Somewhat Oppose
90%
100%
Strongly Oppose
Respondents were highly varied in their support or opposition to the most recent school
finance bill passed by the legislature and signed into law by the Governor. With onethird having a neutral position, it suggests that many Kansans are confused or
uninformed on how it might affect their local schools.
Level of Support or Opposition for Gun Control Issues
Ban Firearms to
Persons on No-Fly
List
Ban Military
Assault Rifles
39%
Ban High Capacity
Magazines
34%
0%
Strongly Support
15%
56%
20%
Somewhat Support
13%
11%
40%
Neutral
8%
8%
11%
7% 8%
11%
60%
Somewhat Oppose
14%
33%
34%
80%
100%
Strongly Oppose
Of the three gun policy questions, respondents were most likely to support banning the
sale of firearms to individuals on the FBI’s “no-fly” list, with over half strongly supporting
this policy. Banning the sale of military assault rifles received some degree of support
from a majority of respondents. Banning high capacity magazines, defined as holding
10 rounds or more, did not receive majority support, with equal numbers strongly
supporting and strongly opposing such a ban. To prevent recency bias, these three
questions were presented to respondents in a randomized order.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 9
Opinion on Transgender Student Use of Public School Bathrooms
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
26%
40%
50%
60%
25%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Require Use of Bathroom Matching Biological Sex
No Opinion
Allow Students to Use Bathroom Opposite of Biological Sex
Respondents were asked if students who identify with a gender that differs from their
biological sex should be allowed to use the bathroom matching their gender identity.
Half of respondents disagreed with this policy and felt that they should be compelled to
use the bathroom that matches their biological sex. Only one-fourth would allow
transgender students to use the bathroom of their gender identity, while one-fourth had
no opinion.
Recently the federal government issued a mandate that all states allow individuals
to use the bathroom of the gender with which they self-identify instead of their
biological sex. Which of the following best describes your opinion?
19%
0%
10%
15%
20%
30%
67%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Federal Government Correct to Impose Mandate
No Opinion
Federal Government Overstepped Authority/States Should Decide
A follow-up question asked specifically about the federal government’s right to impose
mandates allowing transgender to use the bathroom of their choice in order for states to
receive federal funding. A strong majority of respondents indicated they felt that this
was beyond the federal government’s authority, while only one-fifth believe the federal
government was correct in imposing this mandate.
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 10
Section 4: Demographics
Are you registered to vote in the state of Kansas?
96%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4%
50%
60%
70%
Yes
80%
90%
100%
No
The vast majority of respondents report being registered to vote. Although this is higher
than in the general population, we hypothesize that likely voters are more likely to
consent to participate in a political poll. This suggests that the sample is overrepresented by registered voters, and would thus provide more accurate estimates of
voting results.
Voter Registration Status
58%
0%
10%
20%
20%
30%
40%
Republican
50%
60%
70%
Independent (Not Affiliated)
22%
80%
90%
100%
Democrat
Self-reported voter registration status and party registration status show a fairly
representative sample of Kansas voters.
Political Party Affiliation
Strong Republican
Not Very Strong Republican
Independent Leaning Republican
24%
8%
22%
18%
10% 5%
15%
Independent
Independent Leaning Democrat
Not Very Strong Democrat
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
100%
Strong Democrat
Page 11
Respondent's Level of Education
Less than high school
High school diploma or equivalency
2%
2%
15%
24%
13%
29%
Some college
Associates or Technical degree
15%
Bachelors degree
Masters or law degree
Doctoral degree
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondent's Income Level
Less than $10,000
$10,000-$24,999
3%
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
8%
9%
11%
25%
19%
15%
9%
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$150,000 or More
Gender
49%
0%
10%
20%
51%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Male
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female
Page 12
Appendix A: Survey Instrument
Qual
Are you currently residing in the state of Kansas?
1 Yes
2 No
NotQual
Thank you but the survey is intended for Kansas residents. Have a great _____.
1 Select to End Survey
Q1 In general, how would you rate the Kansas economy? Would you say it is:
1 Excellent
2 Very good
3 Good
4 Fair
5 Poor or
6 Very poor?
8 DON’T KNOW/REFUSE
Q2a Please indicate if you are "Very satisfied", "Somewhat satisfied", "Neutral",
"Somewhat dissatisfied" or "Very dissatisfied" with the following elected officials.
1 The Kansas Legislature in general?
2 U.S. Senator Jerry Moran?
3 Governor Sam Brownback?
4 President Barack Obama?
1 Very satisfied
2 Somewhat satisfied
3 Neutral
4 Somewhat dissatisfied
5 Very dissatisfied
8 DON'T KNOW/REFUSE
Q2bPlease tell me if you would vote for any of the following politicians if there was a
hypothetical election held today.
1 Senator Jerry Moran?
2 Governor Sam Brownback?
3 President Barack Obama?
1 Yes
2 No
8 DON’T KNOW
9 REFUSE
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 13
Q3 If the Presidential election were held today, who would you be most likely to vote
for?
1 Donald Trump
2 Hillary Clinton
3 Gary Johnson
4 Some Other Candidate ->T
Q4a What is your opinion about how public schools in Kansas should treat transgender
students in regards to which bathrooms they should use?
1 Students should be required to use the bathroom that matches their biological sex
2 Students who identify with an alternative gender should be permitted to use the
bathroom opposite of their biological sex
3 No Opinion/Don’t Know
Q4b Recently the federal government issued a mandate that all states allow individuals
to use the bathroom of the gender with which they identify instead of their legallyidentified gender. Which of the following best describes your opinion of the situation?
1 The federal government was correct to impose the mandate
2 The federal government overstepped its authority and should allow the states to
determine they own policies for bathroom choice
3 Other ->TM
4 No Opinion
9 REFUSE
Q5 School Funding question: will be crafted after June 30th.
Q6 Do you “Stongly Support”, “Somehwat Support”, “Neutral”, “Somehwat Oppose” or
“Strongly Oppose” the following…
1 Banning the sale of military assault rifles to citizens?
2 Banning the sale of high capacity (more than 10 rounds) magazines to citizens?
3 Banning the sale of firearms to all persons on the no-fly list?
1 Strongly Support
2 Somewhat Support
3 Neutral
4 Somewhat Oppose
5 Strongly Oppose
Q7 Are you currently registered to vote in the state of Kansas?
1 Yes
2 No
8 DON’T KNOW
9 REFUSE
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 14
Q8 Did you vote in the last Presidential election held in 2012?
1 Yes
2 No
Q9 Do you consider yourself a:
1 Strong Republican
2 Not Very Strong Republican
3 Independent..... Leaning Republican
4 Independent
5 Independent..... Leaning Democrat
6 Not Very Strong Democrat
7 Strong Democrat
8 DON'T KNOW/REFUSE
Q10 What is the highest level of education you have received?
1 Less than high school
2 High school diploma or equivalency
3 Some college
4 Associates or Technical degree
5 Bachelors degree
6 Masters or law degree
7 Doctoral degree
9 Refuse
Q11 And finally, was your total household income for last year above or below $50,000
a year?
1 Less than 10,000
2 At least 10,000 but under 25,000
3 At least 25,000 but under 35,000
4 At least 35,000 but under 50,000
5 At least 50,000 but under 75,000
6 At least 75,000 but under 100,000
7 At least 100,000 but under 150,000
8 150,000 or more
88 DON'T KNOW/REFUSE
Q12
What year were you born? ____________
Q13
That’s our last question. Thank you for participating in this important research. The
results will be released to the media in later this month. Was the respondent a...
1 Male
2 Female
8 Unsure
The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll © July 2016
Page 15