Krzys’ Ostaszewski: http://www.math.ilstu.edu/krzysio/ Author of the “Been There Done That!” manual for Course P/1 http://smartURL.it/krzysioP (paper) or http://smartURL.it/krzysioPe (electronic) Instructor for Course P/1 online seminar: http://smartURL.it/onlineactuary If you find these exercises valuable, please consider buying the manual or attending our seminar, and if you can’t, please consider making a donation to the Actuarial Program at Illinois State University: https://www.math.ilstu.edu/actuary/giving/ Donations will be used for scholarships for actuarial students. Donations are taxdeductible to the extent allowed by law. Questions about these exercises? E-mail: [email protected] Exercise for April 21, 2007 May 1985 Course 110 Examination, Problem No. 5 Let X and Y be random variables with variances 2 and 3, respectively, and covariance !1. Which of the following random variables has the smallest variance? A. 2X + Y B. 2X ! Y C. 3X ! Y D. 4X E. 3Y Solution. We have Var ( 2X + Y ) = 4Var ( X ) + Var (Y ) + 4Cov ( X,Y ) = 8 + 3 ! 4 = 7, Var ( 2X ! Y ) = 4Var ( X ) + Var (Y ) ! 4Cov ( X,Y ) = 8 + 3 + 4 = 15, Var ( 3X ! Y ) = 9Var ( X ) + Var (Y ) ! 6Cov ( X,Y ) = 18 + 3 + 6 = 27, Var ( 4 X ) = 16Var ( X ) = 32, Var ( 3Y ) = 9Var (Y ) = 27. Note that when you add two random variables with negative covariance, you reduce the variance of the sum in relation to the sum of variances, while subtracting them increases variance. This eliminates answers B and C. Similar consideration eliminates D, as variance of Y does not overcome reduction from negative covariance. E is eliminated if we observe that Y, Y, and Y (summands of 3Y) are perfectly correlated, while X, X, and Y (summands of 2X + Y) are not, and the variance of X is smaller than the variance of Y. Answer A. © Copyright 2007 by Krzysztof Ostaszewski. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without express written permission from the author is strictly prohibited. Exercises from the past actuarial examinations are copyrighted by the Society of Actuaries and/or Casualty Actuarial Society and are used here with permission.
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