EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Challenges in Cost Estimation of Geological
Disposal: Optimisation as a Goal
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Nuclear Power in Finland Today and Tomorrow (?)
Fennovoima Oy
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Hanhikivi 1 –
Pyhäjoki
Fortum Oyj
Eurajoki
Olkiluoto 1 – 880 MW
Olkiluoto 2 – 880 MW
Olkiluoto 3 – (1630 MW)
Olkiluoto 4 –
Loviisa
Loviisa 1 – 496 MW
Loviisa 2 – 496 MW
2
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Arrangement for Nuclear Waste Management
TEOLLISUUDEN VOIMA OYJ
Olkiluoto Power Plant
FORTUM POWER AND HEAT OY
Interim storage of
Spent Nuclear Fuel
Interim Storage of
Spent Nuclear Fuel
Loviisa Power Plant
POSIVA OY
Operating Waste
Repository
Operating Waste
Repository
Geologic Disposal of Spent Fuel at Olkiluoto
3
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Financing of Nuclear Waste Management in Finland
•
Who will pay
– Nuclear Power Companies TVO and Fortum are responsible for
implementation and costs for nuclear waste management including
disposal
•
How much
– Total cost for waste management includes storage, disposal of
LLW/ILW, decommissioning waste and spent fuel
– Depends on the lifetime plan and technical designs
• The cost estimate for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel assumes that the
existing nuclear power plant units and the one under construction will be in
operation for 50-60 years
•
When
– Provisions to cover the cost for nuclear waste management are
collected in advance by the producers of nuclear electricity
• A segregated fund manages the financial provisions for covering the future
liability
4
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Considerations for Cost Estimation
• Challenges
– Lifetime plan extends to 100 years and beyond
– Waste management programme likely to encounter changes
• Credible cost estimate benefits from
– Goal oriented, long-term programme with flexibility
– Stable political framework
• Well-defined licensing system
• Political decisions are made early and respected afterwards
– Established regulatory requirements
• Requirements are based on good science and technology and
possible to implement
– Safe and advanced technical designs
• Known geological environment and defendable safety concept
• Preference on proven technology instead of unexplored solutions
– Description and plans for the operation of disposal facility
5
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Lifetime Plan
6
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Liability, Total Cost Estimate and Cash Flow
based on Lifetime Plan
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Posiva’s Encapsulation Plant and Deep Repository
at Olkiluoto (plan for 9000 tU)
8
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Total Cost Estimate for Spent Fuel Disposal
Spent fuel disposal from Olkiluoto 1-3 and Loviisa 1-2, 5500 tU
(December 2009, no discounting)
Construction
Above ground facilities
Repository (incl. ONKALO)
Operation
Encapsulation plant
Canisters
Repository
Transports
Decommissioning and sealing
Dismantling and waste management
Repository closure and sealing
Total (Million €)
700
150
550
2,420
1,200
580
630
20
200
10
190
3,320
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Reference Scenario for Spent Fuel Disposal
•
Designed for optimal
layout of the safe
repository in concert
with thermal constraint
– Canister-buffer
interface limited to
<100 C
o
•
•
•
Thermal load of each
canister have to be
calculated and limited
Annual capacity of
disposal operation
limited by cooling time
Burn-up of spent fuel
defines the cooling time
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Can Lifetime Cost be Optimised by Credible Manner ?
• Modification of lifetime plan becomes problematic
by introduction of new reactors to a small nuclear
programme
– Extension of the operation time due to the needs for
cooling the spent fuel
• Operating cost as a target for optimisation
– Planning of storage and disposal activities to make
possible the “shortest possible” operation time
• Operating scenario can be made more effective
by periodic operation strategy
– An academic study has been conducted for method
development and exploring possibilities
11
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Alternative
Scenarios
for Spent Fuel
Disposal
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Cost Implications of Different Scenarios
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Reflections and considerations
• Operation scenario has a significant impact on cost estimation
– Cost benefits can be achieved by well-planned timing of disposal
operation
• Implementation of goal oriented, long-term programme with
flexibility
– Increases the certainty of costing and reduces the risk
associated with the cost
– Works as an evidence for fulfilling the responsibilities set to
power companies
– Contributes positively to acceptance of nuclear power and builds
confidence
• Calculation of liability and collection of funds for future is
based on a credible lifetime plan
• Cost optimisation is made possible by right science, advanced
technical design and experiences from construction
14
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
Progress in Finland with Nuclear Waste Management
•
Achievements of implementing long-term programme
– Repositories for LLW/ILW have been in operation since 1990s
– Geologic disposal of spent fuel at Olkiluoto has been accepted in the
decision making process in 1999 - 2001
– ONKALO has been excavated (2004-2012) at the selected site for the
confirmation of site properties
• STUK has supervised the construction of ONKALO
– Disposal concept KBS-3 has been developed to a mature stage for
licensing
– Construction license application has been submitted to Government in
2012
•
Key success factors
– Political decision and commitment early in the process (1983, 2001)
– Open communication, transparency and high quality of the work by
implementer
– Participation of regulator (STUK) in the interaction with public
– Fairness of the decision making process
15
EURADWASTE '13
8th EC Conference on the Management of Radioactive Waste
Co-organised by
14-16 October 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania
16