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The Periphery’s Role in Geopolitics
March 29, 2017 We explain how South America and sub-Saharan Africa fit into the GPF model.
By Allison Fedirka
On most days, the Reality Check addresses a particular event that furthers or shifts the
trajectory of a major global process. However, it is occasionally a forum to address fundamental
concepts that inform Geopolitical Futures’ analysis but don’t get much attention in our writing.
Many readers have written to GPF to inquire about where sub-Saharan Africa and South America
fit in our framework. Today’s Reality Check is a response to those inquiries.
GPF follows a particular methodology that directs the course of analysis and serves as the
cornerstone of our forecasts. The model is the summation of how different countries’
imperatives and constraints confront each other at a global level. It is dynamic, comprehensive
and constantly monitored through our Net Assessments, Forecasts, Deep Dives and other
analyses. The model tells us two things. First, it points to the parts of the world that can
significantly change the global reality. Second, it indicates the likely outcome of these changes.
The degree to which a region or country can significantly change a global reality depends on its
ability to amass and project power. Although South America and sub-Saharan Africa have
abundant natural and human resources, their ability to project power externally is limited due to
their geographic isolation from the areas at the center of the global system – North America and
Eurasia.
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A man walks on a sand dune with his camels in M'hamid el-Ghizlane, in the Moroccan southern Sahara Desert, on March 16,
2014. FADEL SENNA/AFP/Getty Images
In Africa, the Sahara Desert serves as the demarcating feature. Spanning the continent from the
Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, the Sahara is over 5.3 million square miles of inhospitable
terrain, creating a division between countries to its north and south. The countries north of the
Sahara border the Mediterranean and therefore are inherently tied to Southern Europe and parts
of the Middle East. Countries and population centers south of the Sahara remain largely isolated
since significant geographic barriers – the desert and oceans – separate them from the rest of
the world and are difficult to overcome.
Geography is also an important factor in South America’s geopolitical peripheral status. Dense
terrain and seas separate North and South America. The Darién Gap, a practically impenetrable
dense swamp and jungle, overlaps both sides of the Colombia-Panama border, which is
approximately 140 miles long. The Darién Gap is South America’s only physical connection to
the rest of the Americas. It remains undeveloped (not even the famed Pan-American Highway
traverses through it) and runs over volatile, mountainous terrain. Even today, almost all travel
over this area occurs by sea or air. The Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea insulate
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South America from other landmasses.
While overcoming geographic barriers is possible – especially with technological advances –
projecting power over long distances is extremely challenging in terms of logistics and
resources. Both regions have been unable to accomplish this in the past and the present. Precolonial African empires did not manage to construct holdings that spanned across the Sahara.
None of the great Central and South American civilizations – Incas, Mayans and Aztecs –
expanded their kingdoms across the Darién Gap. The United States is the prime example of how
a country can project power over extreme distances through technology and immense resources
– just look at its military operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan. But the U.S. is a global
hegemon, and no other country in the world currently has this power projection capability.
The economic role of sub-Saharan Africa and South America in the global system is also limited.
According to the latest World Bank figures, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for about 2 percent of
global GDP, while South America accounts for roughly 7 percent. These are disproportionately
low given both regions’ population and landmass.
The concentration of economic and population centers in more northern regions – North
America, Europe and Asia – has also affected trade routes and put sub-Saharan Africa and South
America at a disadvantage. The latter two regions are significantly sidelined from major trade
routes. The World Shipping Council reports that only 158 of 490 liner shipping services that
provide regular service are connected to sub-Saharan Africa or South America. The council also
tracks the amount of cargo, measured in 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), shipped along major
east-west and north-south trade routes. East-west routes include ports in North America, Europe
and Asia, while north-south routes also include ports in South America. This particular measure
does not even register sub-Saharan African ports. The east-west routes accounted for 55.3
million TEUs in 2013, while the north-south routes saw about 5.1 million TEUs. The Suez and
Panama canals also affected global shipping routes and enabled ships to more easily bypass
southern waters altogether.
Geography has put South America and sub-Saharan Africa on the periphery, but they can still
play a role in geopolitics through their interactions with major global players. They can increase
their geopolitical significance in two ways.
The first way is through topic-specific insertion. This involves actively identifying ways to
participate in global issues and forums that in turn increase the geopolitical relevance of a
region or country. This can be done in a variety of ways. One is to become the major supplier of
critical commodities to a great geopolitical power (for example, supplying large quantities of soy
or copper to China). Another way is to develop expertise in a particularly influential field, like
nuclear energy or deep-water oil drilling.
A region can also increase its relevance by supporting global powers in their international
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activities. When principal powers deem a country or region in the periphery as strategically
advantageous to the former’s goals, the periphery’s geopolitical relevance increases. For
example, African ports gained strategic value as refueling posts for European traders seeking to
transport goods to and from the Far East. A more recent example is the strategic value of Brazil
to Allied powers, particularly the U.S., during World War II. The Brazilian northeast, especially
Fernando de Noronha, provided a southern front for Atlantic Ocean security operations.
However, auxiliary roles are often temporary. They become more or less important depending
on broader geopolitical processes.
This explains how peripheral regions, like sub-Saharan Africa and South America, can occupy a
more prominent geopolitical role at certain times. This role, however, depends on their
relationship with the dominant geopolitical trends of the day. Thus, GPF’s analytic model
includes both of these regions. But the ability of a country or region to project power determines
its prominence in GPF’s model. The geographic isolation of these two regions significantly
reduces their ability to project power and assume a central role in global affairs.
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