ENVIRONMENT
AARMS
Vol. 6, No. 3 (2007) 461–472
Extreme weather phenomena – the vulnerability of
infrastructure
ZSUZSANNA GYENES, LÁSZLÓ HALÁSZ
Miklós Zrínyi National Defence University, Budapest, Hungary
The weather, the climate and climatic conditions as well as the climate-policy dealing with
their effects is ever increasingly becoming a part of the safety policy. Environmental safety
and one of its mainframe elements, the protection against natural and civilization disasters
have been a part of general safety policy for years. During the past years several harmful
events occurred such as windstorms, rainfalls with sudden precipitation and extreme high or
low temperatures. Nevertheless, it appears to be one of the most important tasks of the
disaster management to analyze these events in order to be able to take preventive measures
to avoid the consequences of these events to both the infrastructure and people.
Introduction
The domestic and international weather related phenomena of the past period have
directed attention to the set of problems in connection with extreme weather conditions
and have brought into public awareness such concepts that have not yet been
thoroughly clarified. More and more scientific disciplines realize today that the changes
of weather, climate and climatic conditions realize an actual risk. It appears that those
extreme weather phenomena are increasing more frequent which often result in human
casualties and cause significant collateral damage.
Climate policy today has two, clearly distinguishable endeavors:
– the reduction of impacts and emissions by taking measures to civil activities;
– the establishment of countermeasures against negative impacts of climate
change, the operation and elaboration of adaptation strategies.
Greater attention has been devoted thus far to address the first problem, which is
proven by the fact that international treaties have been drafted and implemented for its
resolution, whilst the other sphere of problems, that is the protection against harmful
impacts and the possible adaptation measures have been much less researched.
What are those negative impacts – though not proven to be generated by the climatic
change – which have been addressed by the media in their broadcasts as natural
catastrophes? These are the unfavorable physical effects, the so-called primary and
secondary effects.2
Received: June 21, 2007
Address for correspondence:
ZSUZSANNA GYENES
Miklós Zrínyi National Defence University
P. O. Box 15, H-1581 Budapest, Hungary
E-mail: [email protected]
ZS. GYENES, L. HALÁSZ: Extreme weather phenomena
Primary effects
Primary effects are the ones that can be directly generated by the climatic change.
They are for the most part:
– extreme high – extreme low temperatures;
– extreme precipitation (long lasting rainfalls, rainstorms, hailstorms as well as
long duration snowfalls leaving lasting snow layer and/or snowfall accompanied
by a blizzard);
– windstorm (high winds, whirlwinds)2 etc.
Secondary effects
Secondary effects, which – according to our interpretation – may occur generated by the
above (occasionally combined with one another)
– flood and remnant inundation waters;
– mudslides, landslides;
– drought, desertification;
– intensive fires, intensification of explosion hazard;
– incurred damage to critical infrastructure, interruptions of general utilities and
other supply services, occurrence of non-sustenance situations;
– occurrence of consequences related to health, psyche, and negative human comfort;
– social operability problems in the monetary, economic and public administration
fields and so forth.
Primary effects, the consequences of which negatively bear impact on society and
its environment may be examined when categorized into three major groups:
– effects endangering human health,
– effects impacting the infrastructure – and critical infrastructure,
– effects impacting the environment.2
Primary effects that are extreme temperature, precipitation and windstorms may take
place not only individually, but in a combination with one another as their occurrences
have been experienced thus far. If, for example the temperature was extremely high for
a long period of time and this was accompanied by a simultaneous significant lack of
precipitation, the combined consequences of these events might have been bearing
much more disastrous impacts on human health, infrastructure and agriculture than the
individual events would have been by themselves, alone.
Exactly for this reason we must form a more accurate understanding of these
phenomena in order to be able to reduce their effects to the required degrees. The task
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of disaster management nevertheless may not be concluded by simply assessing what
destruction these extreme weather phenomena can cause, but with an exact
understanding of these effects prevention measures must be set forth. The necessity
therefore arises for such indicators the processing of which will facilitate development
of a preparation mechanism against the extreme weather phenomena. These numeric
indicators would be determined based on human tolerance capability, primarily taking
into consideration the specific point whence the hazardous event assumes such extent or
degree which can cause detrimental effects to human health for instance, either directly
or indirectly via impacting damages, destroying infrastructure as well as through
detrimentally afflicting the environment.
Critical infrastructure according to the NATO CPC (Civil Protection Committee)
includes those establishments, services and information systems which are so essential
to nations that the event these became inoperable or eliminated would have a
compromising effect on national security, on social health, and public safety as well as
on the effective administration of the government.
Considered in detail, the elements of critical infrastructure are the following:
– electricity
– departments for managing emergency events:
– telecommunication and information systems,
– financial services,
– logistics, traffic,
– transportation system (fuel supply, railway network, airports),
– water and food supply; food production and distribution,
– national monuments,
– public health.
Several case studies have and do still up until today dealt with the impacts the
global climate change is having upon the infrastructure, as an example the so-called
Qiuck Scan,3 that is the quick analysis of the Netherlands critical infrastructure.
The reason for making the Quick Scan
The reason for making this analysis is:
– to provide a comprehensive understanding of the essential and indispensable
products and services,
– the analysis of the above with respect to their dependency (or independency)
from one another,
– to examine what negative consequences an interruption of these may draw upon.
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As the first step, the definition of the term “critical” must be specified. According to
the Netherlands interpretation, the infrastructure is critical, that is if heavy damages are
incurred upon it or if unexpectedly shut down; damages can be caused on the scale of
national extent. Considering that this type of interpretation is quite comprehensive,
consequentially the application is possible for numerous areas of life, therefore as such
on the economic sector as well as on the fields of environmental protection or disaster
management.
With regards to the effects caused, Table 1 summarizes the negative impacts on the
infrastructure.3
From amongst the secondary effects the possible interruptions occurring to the
physical structure and/or regular sustaining operation of infrastructure incorporate one
of the most important threats and the most complex sphere of problems.
With respect to Hungary out of the components of the infrastructure it is important
to highlight the impacts generated upon open industrial technologies, the interruptions
caused to traffic and problems caused to defense services.
In traffic extreme low temperatures play a role in such a way that the railroad track
switches can freeze up in extreme cold weather, and therefore by extending the process
of switching railroad tracks and causing delays.
In the event roads get frozen over, they remain slippery due to the frost thereby
causing problems in driving, and in a worse case scenario traffic accident to drivers
who possess lesser experience in driving a vehicle in addition to those drivers not
driving as conditions dictate. In cold weather with long duration roads become easier to
damage, most of the road damages take place in wintertime due to the precipitation and
cold, worsening the comfort and safety of traffic.
Regarding defense services, firefighting missions are to a significant degree made
more difficult by the freezing up of fire hydrants and thus causing the lack of water
supply which can cause even mass damages.4
The energy sector is struck by the extreme cold all the same – and this we can
witness in present day Russia as an example. Wires get frozen, possibly break, thus
telecommunication may be damaged, which in urgent cases may also demand civilian
lives (the ambulance service and fire department cannot be contacted).
Water pipeline systems may freeze up, as a consequence of which pipelines can get
leaks, eventually causing a lack of hot water in households and in severe cases lack of
drinking water.
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Table 1. Negative impacts of extreme weather phenomenaon the infrastructure
Extreme weather phenomenon
Extreme low temperatures
Extreme high temperatures
Precipitation – extreme amounts
Precipitation – lacking
Stormy high winds
Product or service negatively impacted
Operation of power plants
Electric power service
Installed land line phone service
TV, radio broadcasts
Water and railroad transport
Potable water service
Public services (firefighting)
Pipeline transport
Potable water service
Water quantity control
Health care services
Food products
Traffic
Water quality control
Operation of power plants
Potable water service
Traffic (damaging and blocking of roads, bridges)
Transportation
Food products supply
Installed land line phone service
TV, radio broadcasts
Health care services
Sewer systems
Potable water service
Food products supply (agriculture)
Water quantity control
Traffic (shipping- low water levels)
Traffic (damaging and blocking of roads, bridges)
Transportation
Installed land line phone service
TV, radio broadcast
Health care services
Food products supply (agriculture)
Electric power service
Natural gas services may become interrupted – lack of gas supply –, electric power
service may become unavailable, due to the reason that in open field technologies, such
as coal power plants, the mining of the energy resource from the highly frozen ground
becomes impossible.
With respect to the issue of safety also with hazardous industrial processes long
lasting cold temperatures become a serious problem as in the case of chemical
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industries the process pipelines and valves in addition to valves installed on vessels
(gate valves, turn valves) can freeze up.
These types of process failings can in turn lead to undesired events as for instance
leaks of chlorine gas or ammonia – depending on the particular process concerned.
Obviously, in the case of industrial plants that are adequately prepared, this fault may
with a high likelihood by excluded, nevertheless may it never be completely
disregarded. These effects may generate social dissatisfaction, hindering the effective
administration of the government, and they consequentially are subject to extensive
examination.
Possible major consequences of extreme winter weather
– As a result of the cold, railroad switches may become frozen up, and can be
operated only with highly extensive effort, that can result in blockages or
jamming of traffic;
– If due to the cold the snow cannot compact, from the dusty snow the wind can
carry it and build up giant snow blocks, which may interrupt public road traffic;
– As a result of traffic difficulties, public supply services may face interruptions
and specific products may become temporarily and locally unavailable;
– Health care services may be facing interruptions, patient transportation and the
acquisition of certain medications may become increasingly difficult;
– Gas pipelines may get frozen up and therefore longer or briefer interruptions can
take place in pipeline gas services;
– Due to the expectable increase in electric power consumption, transient
interruptions can possibly take place in electric power services;
– Snow may separate certain settlements, and even certain inhabited land areas
from the rest of the country;
– The roof structures of buildings may become damaged from the weight of the snow;
– When the temperature is not too low and precipitation falls out in the form of
rain, water frozen to the surfaces of solid objects may result in the formation of
an ice layer, which can cause extraordinary traffic blockages and may even
render traffic eventually impossible. The thick ice layer as it gets frozen over
electric power supply lines and telecommunications lines it may easily damage
them, thereby causing severe energy supply difficulties.5
In the prevention of harmful effects upon the infrastructure the various standards
play key roles which are based on numerous years of research effort and physical
measurements. As a result for the aforementioned purpose there is no necessity for
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determining special indicators in those cases where the individual standards lay down
the required and sufficient conditions.
Such an example is the standard MSZ EN 1991-1-3:2005 on the snow load charges
on erected structures that provides an answer to how much snow load impact, or weight
charge a building must withstand thereby preventing the destructive effects of extreme
weather phenomena.
Effects of high and extreme high temperatures by summer
Extremely high temperature values that are characteristic for the summer period may
generate negative impact on the infrastructure as well as when present for an extended
long period of time.
In traffic, for instance, railroad civilian and cargo transportation may be interrupted
if for an extensive duration of time the temperatures soar extremely high, since the rails
may get deformed as a consequence of the blistering heat so traffic and transportation
may be disabled.
Installed land lines are exposed to higher charges as well as in the extremely warm
period, they become much more vulnerable, as a result of high electric energy
consumption (the mass utilization of air conditioning systems for instance) even electric
power outages may occur. The industry is also concerned with the issues of extreme
high temperatures, since it is possible that power plants have to be shut down due to
lack of water used for cooling the turbines. This in turn leads to a halt in production and
through that to social dissatisfaction. Water supply must be regulated as well, the levels
in water reservoirs may be reduced as the water levels of rivers and lakes too, and that
causes problems in traffic and the transportation of products. These effects may be
greatly multiplied when accompanied by an extreme lack of precipitation.
In the correlation between lack of precipitation and the infrastructure the followings
are worthwhile examining:
– lack of potable water, the controlling of water quantity,
– traffic – water transportation,
– defense services,
– water quality control.
Water management has a significant role, it is a crucial component of disaster
management.
In the event namely if there is no adequate water quantity in the reservoirs, and
additionally a long term lack of precipitation is complemented by extreme high
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temperatures also, than water quantities must be managed both as respect to drinking
water and for water devoted for agricultural purposes (irrigation).
The reduction in water quantities may possibly generate a deterioration of water
quality that may cause social upheaval just as well. When examined in an identical
relationship water quantities do not only drop in water reservoirs, but in rivers and lakes
also. This on the other hand may cause interruptions in traffic and transportation via
shipping, and this latter may have severe negative economic consequences too (goods
do not arrive, and may become deteriorated due to lateness, and so forth.)
Considering the issues of defense services our attention is drawn to water reservoirs
as well, as the lack of water may cause serious problems in the course of extinguishing
larger fires. This problem, too, may be topped by the fact if the fire event is due to
natural causes, as for example the fires of produce with high stalks where the water
required for extinguishing the fire must be taken from the water source in the proximity.
Should the source be depleted however – as there have been many such cases -, then
firefighting may become increasingly difficult and the efforts duration extended, which
can also cause substantial economic damages.
Consequences of rainfall precipitated suddenly and in large quantities
Another consequence of the global climate change is the problem of suddenly
precipitated rainfalls. This event causes problems solely in those cases in which its
quantity substantially exceeds the average measures, or when the quantity highly
exceeds the average measures, or of the quantity that can otherwise be regarded as a
normal annual value precipitates in a considerably shorter period of time – as has
already taken place in several domestic settlements, in Mátrakeresztes to pinpoint an
example –, thus there is no possibility for the rainwater to be strained into the ground
nor for it to evaporate, or for a rainwater conduit system to direct it to be absorbed.6
The increasing precipitation quantities are a possible complement of the warming
process appearing on the global level because as the amounts of water vapor increase as
a consequence of the heat, the water cycle and as a result the process of generating
precipitation becomes expedited too. Naturally, this is not fully a necessary result, as
there are influencing factors which may interrupt this process.
By these factors we mean mainly the relative humidity of the air. The phenomenon
though may not be prevented and we are unable to bear any influence on its formation,
the detrimental effects may nevertheless be reduced.
As regards to prevention the following are the most essential factors:
– knowledge of the location of the settlement,
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– assessing the environment of the settlement,
– constructing a sufficient rainwater drainage system to the required extent.
From amongst the problems caused by extreme amounts of rainfall flooding is of
primary concern.
In our country the floods normally take place twice per year, one of these is the
spring flood, that results in elevated water quantities on the already elevated river levels
due to the melting of the winter precipitation, the summer flood on the other hand is
common as caused by the large spring rainfalls, storms and rainstorms. Last year a large
proportion of Hungarian rivers have struck record levels due to high water stands.
Flooding in our country has affected several hazardous industrial plants built on the
banks of the Danube.
These installations were not prepared for high water stands, did not possess
preventive measures nor plans in order to address and resolve these or similar
situations. The sewer system was incapable to handle the sudden flooding thereby
rendering the traffic of the capital and the Northern settlements disabled. In multiple
locations for longer periods motorways were closed down, these for instance were the
number 10 in Szentendre and number 6 linking between Ercsi-Adony-Dunaújváros.
Nonetheless, not only large rivers, but smaller brooks have significantly become
elevated in levels demanding numerous civilian lives as well.
To address for instance the mitigation of the consequences of great rainfalls the
“renewal” of rainwater drainage systems has been continued, and where these have
been out of service (buried) new ones are to be constructed. The lack of fully
constructed sewer systems is a very crucial problem, despite the fact that a Hungarian
standard exists on the work safety requirements of the construction of the rainwater
drainage system, namely MSZ 10-280:1983, and standard MSZ 10-278:1982 on the
protection against remnant inundation waters.
As a consequence of great rainfalls the small water reservoirs get filled up quickly
in such sudden large rainfalls and owing to the collective effects of the melting snow
and rainfall. Hail causes extensive damages as well, insurance companies these days
take a much more careful approach when drafting contracts for hail damages as ten
years ago for example since the frequency of the phenomenon has significantly
increased. Damages incurred upon material assets may be substantial (last summer in
Miskolc hail was falling that took the size of an egg or a tennis ball).6
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Damages caused by windstorms
A windstorm is a current of air that is usually steady, with high momentum, and speed.
Winds that reach speeds of eighty to ninety kilometers per hour can cause damages
already; winds traveling at a hundred kilometers per hour that is called high wind at this
point is capable of doing severe disaster.
Winds that blow with an even greater speed are called depending on their
originating location and the conditions of their development tornado, typhoon or
hurricane etc. In our country luckily these devastatingly powerful wind disasters only
rarely occur.
During the last century tornadoes devastated on two occasions (on 13 June, 1924. in
Biatorbágy, and on 08 June, 1955. on the Hortobágy).
In both of these cases there were civilian fatalities along with great material
damages incurred. In the year of 1997 in the villages of Torvaj and Told high winds
caused substantial material damages, here no personal injuries happened however. The
occurrence of similar cases cannot be excluded; therefore it is expedient to be prepared
to mitigate their consequences.
The development of winds is based on the difference in the specific weight of air
masses with differing temperatures. The warmer, and therefore lighter air strata drift
upwards, and yet the cooler and thus heavier strata drift downwards. The greater the
difference in the temperatures (specific weight) of the various air strata, the air current
(wind) developed as a result will be all the more intense. In our country winds with
stormy intensity may occur in any time of the year.
The purpose of critical infrastructure protection is to prepare for interruptions or the
destruction of the infrastructure, to utilize safeguard measures, in addition to
proportional and necessary reaction and recovery.
In the formation of wind conditions in our county’s territory two factors play a part,
one of them is general air circulation and the other being the normal current. The most
commonly utilized formula for wind intensity is the so-called Beaufort wind intensity
scale, based on which amongst others we can determine when from a meteorological
perspective a wind starts to get stormy.
In Hungary the general air circulation possesses a northwest direction, which can be
felt mostly west of the Danube and in the land strip between the Danube and the Tisza
rivers. East of the river Tisza however the air movement becomes northeastern. Wind
directions cannot solely be determined by the dominant wind direction, but can be
demonstrated by so-called compass rose presented in percentage distributions. Winds
have another characteristic apart from their directions, that is speed about which we can
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state that in our country the representative value on average is between 2–4 m/s. We can
of course experience much higher values as well, these are wind blows, the average
values for which have been between 20–40 m/s with respect to the past decades.
In reconverting this means a quite significant wind movement, since if we assume
that on stormy days the speed of 15 m/s is equivalent to 50 km/h, then it can be
calculated that approximately the intensity of the wind blows has been 72–150 km/h
possibly according to the measurements on the recorded event dates.
In this event case instead of the term windstorm they used tornado, typhoon and
hurricane to describe it as its properties and intensities prompted them reasonable.
The destructive power of the stormy winds is based on the fact that it exercises
pressure upon the stationery objects in its path, or objects with a movement
significantly lower than the speed of the wind. The magnitude of the pressure is
proportional to the wind speed. In a densely populated, urbanized environment this
effect is moderate taking into account that the wind speed is significantly reduced in
urban areas.
The reason for this is that the constructions density reduces the speed of the wind, as
it prevents it from being able to move on without obstacles. Speaking in numbers the
wind speeds in inhabited areas is by 15–20% lower than in outlying territories.
Standard MSZ ENV 1991-1-4:2005 sets forth measures on wind effects. In
accordance the preparation is possible against the destructive force of the wind, on the
planning level already. It is probable that for the wind blows typical of the past years
bearing extreme properties the issuance of such standard will become necessary that
handles these events.
Amongst the effects impacted upon the infrastructure one can find the traffic chaos
caused by sandstorms as well as snowstorms. In such events the transportation of
specific products may also become jeopardized, leading to the temporary interruption of
food products safety.
Summary
As we can see one of the tasks of the disaster management is to face with these kinds of
natural events and to protect the vulnerable infrastructure against them. We have to
know what type of measurements the operator of the dangerous establishment need to
avoid the serious damage and injuries in the plant. They need some help from the
authority - for example guidance’s and guidelines - to face these events. They also have
to prepare their workers how to prevent the damages of the natural events to the
establishments and the workers too. The weather, the climate and climatic conditions in
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connection with the climate-policy dealing with the effects of these is ever increasingly
becoming a part of the safety-policy. It appears to be one of the most important tasks of
the disaster management to analyze these events in order to be able to take the
preventive measures to avoid the consequences of these events to both the infrastructure
and people.
References
1. I. BUKOVICS: The risk-theoretical questions of climate policy decisions. Magyar Tudomány, 2005/7 p.
842. (in Hungarian)
2. I. BUKOVICS: Possible effects of the climate change and disaster management study concerning civilian
inhabitants. AGRO-21 Booklets, 2004. no. 36. (in Hungarian)
3. LUIIJF, Eric, A. M. BURGER, Helen H. KLAVER, MARIEKE H. A. (2003): Critical infrastructure
protection in the Netherlands: A Quick-scan, The Netherlands; TNO Physics and Electronics Laboratory
(TNO FEL)
4. GY. VASS: Effects of climatic change to the industrial accidents, AGRO-21 Booklets, 2004. no. 36. (in
Hungarian)
5. BM OKF: What is the task in case of chemical industrial accident? Guidance Budapest, 2003
6. www.rsoe.hu
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