1 Gateway: D. Regional Economies and Competitiveness The spatial distribution of economic activities in southern Brazil in the first decade of the XXI century: new dynamics, old geographies in a globalized paradigm ALVES, Lucir Reinaldo PhD student in Geography in the Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning at University of Lisbon. Professor at State University of Western Paraná, Brazil (UNIOESTE/Toledo). Researcher in the Research Group on Regional Development and Agribusiness (GEPEC). Scholarship from CAPES, Brasil, Proc. Nº BEX 1007/12-2. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] MARQUES DA COSTA, Eduarda Pires Valente da Silva PhD in Regional and Local Planning at University of Lisbon. Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning (GSP). Centre of Geographical Studies. Associate Professor in the Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning and coordinator of research group on Modelling and Spatial Planning (www.ceg.ul.pt; www.mopt.org.pt). E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: In the last two decades, Brazil has been changing its relative position in the international world division of labor, supported on a growing internationalization of Brazilian capital and on the diversification of the entrepreneurial profile of its industry and services. Southern regions of Brazil are running the same role of BRIC – the emerging countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China - changes. Although the south includes three metropolises (Curitiba, Florianópólis and Porto Alegre), evidences showed a generalized urbanization and industrialization process is occurring in these southern regions, with a different investment and sectorial profile related to local resources. In this context, the main objective of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the spatial distribution of economic activities in the mesoregions of southern Brazilian, from 2000 to 2010. In order to develop this study, two techniques of regional analysis were used: the location quotients and the shift-share analysis. The variable considered in the study was the number of people employed divided by economic activity sectors, obtained consulting the demographic censuses of IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) for the year of 2000 and 2010, and classified according to OECD/Eurostat. The analysis was performed for the 23 homogeneous mesoregions, which according to IBGE (1970) are a group of municipalities with approximate social and economic characteristics. The results demonstrated that the total number of employed people in southern Brazil from 2000 to 2010 grew by 29.59% and, by comparison of the various activity sectors with the average of the south region, made it possible to rank them according to their importance of weight in terms of total employment and growth dynamics of the sector during the analyzed period. The spatial distribution of these activities showed a wider geographical distribution for both the activities of the primary sector and the labour intensive industry and service sectors. On the contrary, the high and medium technology industries are mainly concentrated in the metropolitan areas of Curitiba and Porto Alegre, and in some neighboring mesoregions, evidencing a low representation in the interior of the Southern Region. In the tertiary sector we found similar results: the more intensive the regions are in knowledge and high-tech, the 2 more the activities are concentrated in the metropolitan areas of the three states and the Norte Central Paranaense. On the other hand, the less intensive the regions are in knowledge, the more mesoregions become relevant. Employment distribution shows that the spatial concentration of industry and services further south, specially associated to less knowledge intensive urban sectors and low technology industries, is composed of sectors where large firms are present. These large companies have mostly national capital, which is a positive aspect of regional competitiveness. Though, in parallel, other sectors (especially those knowledge intensive) reveal to continuo significantly concentrated in metropolises, and employ a small portion of total employed people, depicting a distribution pattern of economic activities that is highly hierarchical and still dependent on the metropolis. Key Words: Southern Brazil; Geographie; Regional Economy; Spatial Distribution. INTRODUCTION The south of Brazil is composed of regions with different integration moments in regional and national economy. In this context, the further Western regions were the first to initiate the economic and demographic occupation process, and are presently the geographical space where the capitals of the three states are located. The main spatial transformations occurred after 1960, year when the western portions of the region was definitely colonized and economically occupied. The National Development Plans (NDP I and II) of this period resulted in a significant number of changes to the regional productive structure. From a typically rural and traditional base of economic activity, the South of Brazil began to mechanize its primary sector and industrialize its production, as well as to increase the share of service sectors in urban areas. During this process, many areas of the three states began to gain economic importance (concentrating economic activities) and population in the regional context. The growth of small and medium urban centers changed the configuration of the urban network in the South of Brazil. The areas that had the most concentrated population and more urban activities (industrial, commercial and service ones), however, revealed to be slightly dispersed. With the mechanization of agriculture in the 1960s and 1970s, the rural exodus gave way for specific points of the urban network to increase their share in terms of population. Furthermore, the stabilization of the economy in the 1990s and the economic liberalization, 3 that began in the end of that decade and was reinforced in the 2000s, instigated the dynamics of other areas with growth of industries, including those related to production chains of grains and meats. Regarding the previous, the present paper has the ambition of determining to what extent the restructuring process was associated to the expansion of industry and services with greater incorporation of technology and knowledge. We also seek to ascertain to what point this pattern of location of activities, that are more technology intensive and knowledge based, reflects the metropolization process observed in some regions of southern Brazil. Finally, and complementarily to the two preceding objectives, we seek to determine the influence of the spatial distribution of economic activities in the regions of southern Brazil from 2000 to 2010 on the trend of urbanization. In order to verify the following objectives, the paper adopts the following structure: the first part corresponds to this introduction; the second part develops a brief literature review; the third part, in addition to the methodology, presents the study region; the fourth and fifth parts develop the analysis, and the last part of the paper sums up a brief set of conclusions. 2. REVISION OF LITERATURE When considering the distribution of economic activities in space, the earliest theories mentioned are those concerning the classical theories of location. The theories of location present a group of sequenced studies ranging from von Thünen (1826) to Isard (1956). While studying these theories, it was possible to identify a visible influence of the concept of "free market" and recall a particular emphasis on great locational decisions of firms when evaluating primarily the role of transport costs. As underscores Cavalcante (2008), it was not the scope of these theories to explore the externalities arising from agglomeration of activities in a particular area, or the trade-offs between economies of scale and transport costs. After the Second World War, the revolution in production levels accentuated regional differences in the distribution of income, becoming a major concern for regional theorists (MARQUES DA COSTA, 1992). In this context, the externalities from industrial agglomeration have gained a prominent role in the theories of regional development. One of the pioneers to devote himself to this analysis and that contributed with important support to 4 the theories of regional development was Marshall (1890). However, the theories most cited and highlighted as main literature references when discussing regional development are the "growth poles" of Perroux (1955), the "circular and cumulative causation" of Myrdal (1957) and "backward and forward effects" of Hirschman (1958). These theories were also influenced by the works of Keynes and Schumpeter. Generally speaking, the process of regional development presented in these theories would be better if more positive effects resulting from this process could be observed. Among these effects, we can highlight those related to the multiplier effect of income and consumption, the industry demand and multiplier chain, both vertically and horizontally and major regional production options. We should therefore identify the positive effects arising from industrial agglomeration itself: notably related to the minimization of transportation costs, exploitation of economic and social infrastructure, exploitation of demand generated by increased employment and income multiplier, among other effects. As referenced by Capello (2007), the spatial concentration of economic activity is a territorial concentration of production that generates a more efficient development than when resulting of dispersed activities. Thus, the spatial concentration is the source of increasing returns in the forms of agglomeration economies, technological externalities, and located learning processes. All these elements increase the competitiveness of local firms and promote local development. At the same time, the economic systems have become more and more internationalized and globalized, knowledge-intensive, restructuring economies and consumption habits of social and economic actors, to the point that the theories of regional development and distribution of economic activities have included these elements in their theoretical acknowledgements. Many regions and firms have took advantage of the opportunities and become more competitive than others. For others, the opening of the economy showed little or no ability to compete in a globalized world (PIKE, RODRÍGUEZ POSE & TOMANEY, 2006). It is in this context that the latest theories on regional development strive to incorporate models and approaches that account for new production patterns based on flexible integrated automation and for the movement of trade liberalization and economic deregulation. As emphasizes by Krugman (1994) regional economies are more open than national economies and the mobility of factors between regions is greater than between nations. So it is more appropriate to analyze the regional competition of the national competition when studying at regional level. As evoked by Pontes and Salvador (2009) this is 5 the scope of the "new economic geography" (with Krugman in head) when analyzing the reasons of economic specialization and competitiveness of cities and regions. The "new economic geography" stressed the relevance of non-economic factors as the explanation for some of the best performances of some regions, and the distribution of economic activities in space. Therefore, in addition to the abundance of labor and supply of inputs as determinants of productive specializations; productive resources, technology and externalities, as well as economic history and other non-economic factors, are also important determinants to consider. Based on the previous perceptions, regional competition has come to gain new explanations in more recent regional economy theories. To Camagni (2002) the specific advantages strategically created by individual companies, the synergies and the ability of territorial cooperation promoted by creative and proactive governmental agencies, the externalities provided by national and local governments and the territorial culture sustained by local historical specificities are considered strategic factors for regional success in a globalized and increasingly competitive context. Recent theories supported in the social capital concept (CAMAGNI & CAPELLO, 2012) or the new economic geography movements help us to understand the spatial distribution of economic activities, capital and employments (DICKEN, 2011, SCOTT & STORPER 2003, MARQUES DA COSTA, 1992, 2000, MENDEZ, 1997, e CICIOTTI, 1998). With the process of globalization, regions have restructured their production structures, emerging from a group of regions with their own forms of organization, to produce for the regional and international markets. In this process are included the regions that have incorporated the process of globalization and transformed their productive structures in order to respond the demands created externally (internationally). Here you can highlight the incentives for installation of multinational companies or international capital inflows in many different ways. In a context of globalization and internationalization of the economy, the regions that most benefit are generally those with large cities, despite some medium-sized cities with a high specialization profile that are able to compete in national and international markets. As emphasizes Marques da Costa (2000), these cities can perform functions or specializations that allow them to assert themselves internationally, to be integrated into a logical network and to transform their space into a geographical space of flows. These facts are also strengthened by Ribeiro, Silva & Rodrigues (2011) who claim that metropolitan areas can be considered urban agglomerations that incorporate the characteristics of new functions 6 of coordination, command and direction of the major cities in the "network economy" emerging with globalization and productive restructuring. Many theories have been presented to explain these differences. From the regional relation between demand and supply as a key element to explain this differentiation (in 50`s), to recent theories supported on the social capital concept (CAMAGNI & CAPELLO, 2012) and the new economic geography movements that help to understand spatial distribution of economic activities, capital and employments. 3 FRAMING OF THE AREA AND METHODOLOGICAL ELEMENTS This article intends to examine the homogeneous mesoregions of three states that compose the Southern Region of Brazil. The mesoregion is a regional subdivision created by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the late 1960s, in which each mesoregion congregates municipalities of a geographical area. These municipalities have economic and social similarities, but do not constitute a political or administrative entity. The southern Brazil is defined by 23 mesoregions: 10 in the State of Paraná, 6 in Santa Catarina and 7 in Rio Grande do Sul, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1 - Identification of mesoregions and urban network in southern Brazil Identification of mesoregions Source: Results of the research. Urban network and functional urban regions designed by daily movement 7 The methodology used to determine the most specialized sectors in different regions is the calculation of location quotient (LQ), which is the most widespread in the literature. This quotient determines the locational behavior of the sectors, as well as the more specialized sectors (potential) in the analyzed regions by comparing the mesoregions with the macroregion reference, the southern Brazil. Moreover, one of the advantages of LQ is cited by Pumain and Saint-Julien (1997) who claim that by using the relative weight of the economic activity branches, the LQ neutralizes the effect "size" of the regions. Therefore, it is argumented that this quotient allows the calculation of reliable indicators. The calculation of LQ requires the selection of a variable. According to Paiva (2006) the selection of this variable must take into consideration that which has the lowest possibility of skewing the results. Thus, the variable most often used in the literature, is the number of employees distributed across sectors. In this case, these data were collected from a microdata of population census of 1970 and 2000, provided by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). It is assumed that the more specialized branches of activity employ imply more labor over time. Moreover, the occupation of labor is reflected on the generation and distribution of regional income, which stimulates consumption and consequently the dynamics of the region. Due to the large sectorial subdivisions tabled by the microdata, collected from the population censuses, the sectors were grouped according to the advanced classification from OECD / Eurostat, presented by Marques da Costa (2008), that highlights the technology and knowledge sectors, and is structured in the following way: primary sector; in the secondary sector: mining industries; construction industry; Public Utilities (including energy and water); high technology industries; medium-high technology industries; medium-low technology industries; and low-tech industries; in the tertiary sector: knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services; knowledge-intensive services; and the total of less intensive knowledge services; this last sector was disaggregated in the following: trade, transportation, accommodation and food, public administration, and other activities. The LQ1 compares the percentage of employed people participation of a mesoregion j with the percentage of the total participation of the South of Brazil. Thus the LQ tells us how 1 Taking into consideration the following definitions: POij = Employed people, in the sector i from the mesoregion j; POtj = Total people employed in the mesoregion j; POit = Employed people, in the sector i from in southern Brazil; POtt = Total employed people, in southern Brazil. The formula for calculating the location quotient (LQ) is: LQ POij / POit POtj / POtt 8 many times sector i is more (or less) important or specialized to the mesoregion j in comparison with the reference macroregion, the South of Brazil. Traditionally, the importance of the mesoregion j in the macroregional context in relation to the studied sector is demonstrated when the LQ takes on values above 1. In such cases, the sector will be considered specialized. The opposite scenario will occur when the LQ is less than 1. The differential-structural method of regional economic growth analysis, traditionally known as shift-share model2, will complement the analysis of LQ. In the same way that the LQ uses the variable of employed population, the differential-structural method is also based on a variable of employed people. The structural-differential method splits the variation of the number of people employed in a particular activity into three components: a macroregional or national component, the sectoral or proportional component, and the regional or differential component, as presented by Haddad (1989), Haddad (1977), Lodder (1974) and Silva (2002). Three basic premises permeate this model, namely: a) Employment growth is defined firstly in "national" terms; in our case we considered the total of South of Brazil, the dynamics of the macroregional economy; b) Employment growth is higher in the dynamic sectors when compared to traditional sectors. The mesoregions whose production structure is based in dynamic sectors tend to have a dynamism above the national average; c) Despite the composition of the productive structure, specific regional factors – such as agglomeration economies, regional business culture, efficient economic policies of local governments – can interfere in the dynamics of the mesoregion; so that, even mesoregions with a "promising" productive structure (supported in dynamic sectors) may present lower performances in comparison with mesoregions that evidence a less dynamic structure, but better exploits its differential/competitive advantages. 2 The macroregional (R) component (or variation) consists on how much the value of the variable in sextor “x” would have varied if it had grown at an average rate of reference macrosector in macroregion reference. The next Equation shows the calculation form: R POT 0 r 1 , in which rtt POttT1 POttT 0 . ij tt i The sectoral or proportional component (P), is the difference between the variation in the specific macroregion reference sector and the aggregate variation of the same macroregion. The summation of these differences will clarify whether the original production structure of the mesoregion in analysis (if its original sectoral specialization) has favored (positive values) or harmed (negative values) the performance of its economy. T1 T0 . P POT 0 r r , in which ij it rit POij tt i j POij j Finally, the differential component (D) informs us the difference between the effective rate of change of each sector in each mesoregion and the average rate of change of each sector in the reference macroregion. It tell us if the mesoregion grew more (or less) than the "national" average in each sector, indicating if the mesoregion has competitive advantages (or differential) in the sector in analysis and in which segments these advantages are presented . D POT 0 r r , in which rij POijT1 POijT 0 . ij i ij it 9 4 THE SECTORAL DYNAMIC OF THE SOUTH OF BRAZIL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY - THE PATTERN OF SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT During the decade from 2000 to 2010, the total number of people employed increased by 29.59%, ie an increase of 3,253,561 people. Overall, the sectors with the largest shares in total were generally those with lower technology (in the case of the industrial sector) or less intensive knowledge (in the case of services and trade). Table 1 - Number of employed people by activity sectors, percentage change and sectoral share in total for the South region of Brazil - 2000/2010 Sector PRIMARY SECTOR 2000 2010 2,190,276 2,158,645 Mining industries 2010 / 2000 (% 2010) (% 2000) % perc. 2000 % perc. 2010 -1.44% 19.92% 15.15% -4.77% 28,812 37,277 29.38% 0.26% 0.26% 0.00% 751,285 1,002,041 33.38% 6.83% 7.03% 0.20% PUS 69,727 136,587 95.89% 0.63% 0.96% 0.32% High technology industries 36,600 36,902 0.83% 0.33% 0.26% -0.07% 208,070 210,834 1.33% 1.89% 1.48% -0.41% Construction industry Medium-high technology industries Medium-low technology industries 347,980 506,215 45.47% 3.16% 3.55% 0.39% Low-tech industries 1,308,188 1,581,892 20.92% 11.90% 11.10% -0.80% SECONDARY SECTOR 2,750,662 3,511,748 27.67% 25.01% 24.64% -0.37% 113,216 189,731 67.58% 1.03% 1.33% 0.30% 1,746,101 2,466,140 41.24% 15.88% 17.31% 1.43% 4,195,966 5,923,518 41.17% 38.16% 41.57% 3.41% 1,780,628 2,398,259 34.69% 16.19% 16.83% 0.64% LIKS – Transportation 441,659 555,466 25.77% 4.02% 3.90% -0.12% LIKS – Accommodation and food 403,902 440,381 9.03% 3.67% 3.09% -0.58% Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services Knowledge-intensive services Less intensive knowledge services (LIKS) - TOTAL LIKS – Trade LIKS – public administration 512,340 643,986 25.70% 4.66% 4.52% -0.14% 1,057,437 1,885,426 78.30% 9.62% 13.23% 3.61% 6,055,283 8,579,389 41.68% 55.07% 60.21% 5.14% (A) Total of south of Brazil 10,996,221 14,249,782 29.59% 100.00% 100.00% (B) Total of Brazil 65,629,892 86,353,839 31.58% - - - 16.75% 16.50% -0.25%* - - - LIKS – Other activities TERTIARY SECTOR A/B 0.00% (C) South total population 25.107.616 27.386.891 9.08% - - - (D) Brazil total population 169.799.170 190.755.799 12.34% - - - C/D 14.79% 14.36% -0.43%* - - - A/C 43.80% 52.03% 8.24%* - - - Source: Results of the research. Notes: * 2010 - 2000 In 2000, the sectors with the highest share of the total were services; which represented 55.07% of the overall total in that year. A decade later, this share increased to 60.21%. This sectors share increased opposed to the decline of the primary sector, which 10 accounted for 19.92% in 2000 changing to 15.15% in 2010, followed by the slight decline of the secondary sector (with 25.01% and 24.64% respectively). An internal analysis of the secondary sector shows that the activities that most participated in the creation of more occupations in absolute values were those of low-tech industries and construction industry. However, the sectors with the greatest variation in the period were the PUS and medium-low technology industries. In the tertiary sector, we have found that the sectors with the largest shares in total are those related to less knowledge intensive services (LIKS). In this sector, the trade and other activities are those with the highest absolute number of employed people. In relative terms, the knowledge-intensive and high-technology services had the second biggest change for the period. First of all, it is interesting to note that when we conjugate the rate of change of employed people between 2000 and 2010 with the relative importance of each sector in 2010, we identified six groups of sectors with differentiated dynamics, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 - Relation between the change rate of the number of employed people in 2000 and 2010 and the weight of each sector in the overall number of employed people in 2010. C E B F D A Source: Results of the research. Notas: 1º PRIMARY SECTOR; 2.1 Mining industries; 2.2 Construction industry; 2.3 PUS; 2.4 High technology industries; 2.5 Mediumhigh technology industries; 2.6 Medium-low technology industries; 2.7 Low-tech industries; 2º SECONDARY SECTOR; 3.1 Knowledgeintensive and high-technology services; 3.2 Knowledge-intensive services; 3.3 Less intensive knowledge services – TOTAL; 3.3.1 Less intensive knowledge services – TRADE; 3.3.2 Less intensive knowledge services – TRANSPORTATION; 3.3.3 Less intensive knowledge services - ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD; 3.3.4 Less intensive knowledge services - PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION; 3.3.5 Less intensive knowledge services - OTHER ACTIVITIES; 3º TERTIARY SECTOR. 11 a) BRANCHES WITH GROWTH DYNAMIC HIGHER THAN THE REGIONAL AVERAGE: A. Branches with medium-low importance in terms of weight in the total employment (0.96% for PUS, 1.33% for the knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services and 13.23% for Less intensive knowledge services - OTHER ACTIVITIES) and whose dynamic of growth in the period 2000 to 2010 was much higher than the national average (more than twice as higher), Figure 3 - Location quotient for the sectors with medium-low importance in terms of weight in the total employment and whose dynamic of growth during the period from 2000 to 2010 was much higher than the regional average (more than twice as high) PUS Knowledge-intensive and high-technology services Less intensive knowledge services - OTHER ACTIVITIES Source: Results of the research. The PUS (Public Utilities Sectors) that include a variety of services related to capturing and generation of electricity and gas, and capturing, treatment and distribution of water, was the branch with the highest variation for the analyzed period. The less knowledge intensive services - OTHER ACTIVITIES, were second with respect to variation, and of this group (A) is the one with the largest relative share in total employed persons. The activities related to these branches are primarily those associated with: activities of membership organizations, repair and maintenance of personal and household 12 goods, other activities of personal services, domestic services, international organizations and other extraterritorial institutions, and undefined activities. Also interesting to notice was the variation in knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services that despite having a small share in total, presented the third largest sector evolution. The activities considered in this branch are: mail and other delivery activities, telecommunications, activities of information technology services, activities of provision of information services, scientific research and development, and repair and maintenance of computer equipment and communication. These three sectors are located in metropolitan areas of the three States as well as in the South part of Rio Grande do Sul State and in the West and North regions of Paraná State. It is noticed that the center of Paraná State to the center of Rio Grande do Sul State the activities with greater variation are relatively not so important. B) Sectors with medium-low importance weight in terms of the total employment (mining industries with 0.26%, the construction industry with 7.3%, medium-low technology industries with 3.55%, knowledge-intensive services with 17.31%, less knowledge intensive services - TRADE with 16.83%) and whose dynamic of growth during the period from 2000 to 2010 was higher than the national average; This second group of activities presented by Figure 4 also showed good performance when observing the variation in the period, even though activities with medium-low participation in terms of relative share the total of employed people. Once more the mesoregions with greater emphasis in these branches are located in metropolitan areas and in a few places in the interior of the South region The medium-low technology industries include: manufacturing of coke, oil products and biofuels, manufacture of rubber and plastic material, manufacturing of non-metallic minerals, and manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment. On the other hand, knowledge-intensive services include: water transport; air transport; cinematographic activities, video production and television programs, sound recording and music; activities of radio and television; financial activities, insurance and related services; real estate activities; juridical activities, accounting and audit activities; business management consulting; architectural and engineering services, testing and technical analysis; publicity and market research; other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities; and , administrative activities and complementary services. 13 Figure 4 - location quotient for the sectors with medium-low importance in terms of weight in the total employment and whose dynamic of growth during the period from 2000 to 2010 was higher than the regional average Mining industries Construction industry Medium-low technology industries Knowledge-intensive services Less intensive knowledge services – TRADE Source: Results of the research. C) Sectors with high importance in terms of weight in the total employment (Less intensive knowledge services - TOTAL with 41.57% and TERTIARY SECTOR as a whole with 60.21%) and whose dynamic of growth in the period 2000 to 2010 was higher than the national average; In the Less intensive knowledge services are included all activities related to trade, transportation, accommodation and food, public administration, and other tertiary activities that do not fall in the previous ones. 14 We noticed in Figure 5 that the location of the most prominently mesoregions in this sector has presented little changes during the analyzed period. The majority of the mesoregions were consolidated. Two rows were evidenced: in the Paraná State from Curitiba Metropolitan mesoregion through Norte Central until the Oeste of Paraná State. In this row the Centro Ocidental mesoregion lost relative share in 2010. The second row is located in the southern of Rio Grande do Sul between Porto Alegre Metropolitan mesoregions and the Sudoeste one. Besides these two rows the Grande Florianópolis mesorregion also stood out in both years and in 2010 the Serrana mesoregion too. Figure 5 - Location quotient for sectors with high importance in terms of weight in the total employment and whose dynamic of growth in the period 2000 to 2010 was higher than the regional average Less intensive knowledge services – TOTAL Source: Results of the research. b) SECTORS WITH A LOWER DYNAMIC OF GROWTH THAN THE REGIONAL AVERAGE: D) Sectors with low importance in terms of weight in the total employment (Less intensive knowledge services - TRANSPORTATION with 3.90%; Less intensive knowledge services - ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD with 3.09%; and Less intensive knowledge services - PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION with 4, 52%) and whose dynamic of growth during the period 2000 to 2010 was below the national average; With regard to this group of activities belonging to the less knowledge intensive services we perceive distinct spatial distributions. The transport sector was consolidated in the regions that stood out in 2000, and in the year of 2010 the mesoregions of North Central 15 Paranaense and Oeste Catarinense were included in this group. Unlike the mesoregion of Norte Catarinense that lost relative share. The sector that showed more spatial changes and that was more concentrated was the accommodation and food. A row was formed between the Florianópolis and the Norte Central Paranaense mesoregions. Besides the mesoregions belonging to this row the Oeste Paranaense and Porto Alegre Metropolitan also stood out. Figure 6 - Location quotient for the sectors with low importance in terms of weight in the total employment and whose dynamic of growth in the period 2000 to 2010 was lower than the regional average Less intensive knowledge services - TRANSPORTATION Less intensive knowledge services - ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD Less intensive knowledge services - PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Source: Results of the research. In the case of public administration this sector showed little changes regarding their spatial distribution. Most of the mesoregions of Rio Grande do Sul State had presented high coefficients in this sector, together with Grande Florianópolis and the Serrana mesoregions. In the Paraná State the three mesoregions that stood out in this sector were the Noroeste, Norte Pioneiro and Centro-Sul. It was interesting to note that the vast majority of mesoregions with LQ> 1 were not metropolitan in 2010, with the exception of Grande Florianópolis. E) Sectors with medium-high importance in terms of weight in the total employment (Low-tech industries with 11.10% and SECONDARY SECTOR as a whole with 16 24.64%) and whose dynamic of growth during the period of 2000 to 2010 was below the national average; The low-tech industries include a diverse set of activities such as the manufacture of food products, beverages, textiles, manufacturing of wooden products and furniture manufacturing, manufacturing of pulp, paper and paper products, and printing and reproduction of recorded media. These industrial activities have high-average share in the total employed people in southern Brazil, but when analyzing the participation of these industrial activities in the total manufacturing sector the participation is high, representing 45.05% of the total. The spatial distribution of this activity has suffered little change in the period. Figure 7 - Location quotient for the sectors with medium-high importance in terms of weight in the total employment and whose dynamic of growth in the period 2000 to 2010 was below the regional average Low-tech industries Source: Results of the research. F) Sectors with medium-low importance in terms of weight in the total employment (Primary sector with 15.15%, High technology industries with 0.26%, and mediumhigh technology industries with 1.48%) and whose growth dynamics during the period of 2000 to 2010 was almost zero or negative; The activities presented in Figure 8 are those that showed less variation from 2000 and 2010. From all of which the primary sector is the one who presented the greatest share of the total employed people of the South, but it is the sector that evidenced the worst performance with respect to variation as well as the highest spatial dispersion. Generally speaking only the metropolitan mesoregions did not stand out in this sector. The opposite occurred in the sectors of the high technology industries. The activities that are in this sector are the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical 17 chemicals, manufacture of computer equipment, electronic and optical products, and aircraft manufacturing. It also indicated a concentration in the regions of the three metropolitan states, and the Oeste of Paraná State. The medium-high technology industries include the manufacture of chemicals, manufacture of machinery, electrical equipment and materials, manufacture of machinery and equipment, manufacture of motor vehicles, and manufacture of other transport equipment, except motor vehicles. In this sector was also observed a concentration in the metropolitan mesoregions of the three states and the Noroeste and the Nordeste of Rio Grande do Sul State. Figure 8 - Location quotient for the sectors with medium-low importance in terms of weight in the total employment and whose dynamic of growth during the period of 2000 to 2010 was almost zero or negative Primary sector High technology industries Medium-high technology industries Source: Results of the research. 5 THE STRUCTURAL-DIFFERENTIAL DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTH OF BRAZIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CENTURY The results of the differential and proportional variation are shown in Figure 9. We visualized that the total positive structural variation occurred in a few mesoregions. The metropolitan mesoregions, mainly of Porto Alegre and Curitiba, Grande Florianópolis and followed by the Norte Central Paranaense were the mesoregions with the largest absolute 18 positive structural component. In addition to these, only the Oeste Paranaense, Centro Oriental Paranaense, Norte Catarinense, Sul Catarinense, Sudoeste Rio-grandense and Central Ocidental Rio-Grandense showed positive values, but with lower absolute values. The fact that they presented positive total values shows that in the initial base year these regions had sectors that occupied many people and evidenced a significant variation in sectors across the South Region that were dynamic (PUS, LIKS - Other activities, Knowledge -intensive and high-technology services, Medium-low technology industries, Knowledge-intensive services, LIKS - TOTAL, LIKS - TRADE, and Construction industry), ie, in 2000 these mesoregions already had a productive structure that contributed favorably to the mesorregional performance. This characteristic was not present in other mesoregions, and especially not in the Noroeste Rio-Grandense which was the mesoregion that obtained the highest negative absolute value. Figure 9 - Structural and differential variation by mesoregions of the South of Brazil 2000/2010 TOTAL Structural Variation (SV) TOTAL Differential Variation (DV) Source: Results of the research. The mesoregions of Centro Oriental Paranaense, Metropolitana de Curitiba, Metropolitana de Florianópolis, Norte Catarinense and Sul Catarinense presented a positive structural variation as well as positive values for the sum of differential variations, ie, what explains the variation in the number of employed people in these mesoregions for the 19 analyzed period was not only the fact that they already presented a favorable production structure, but also the fact that they had local characteristics that positively influenced this dynamism. These characteristics may be the most diverse possible and deserve to be investigated in the other research. In addition to the five mesorregions mentioned above, the mesorregions of the Sudoeste, Centro-Sul and Sudeste of Paraná State, as well as the Vale do Itajai and Oeste of Santa Catarina State, and Nordeste Rio-Grandense, also presented positive values for the differential component. Once again, the Noroeste Rio-Grandense was among the last mesorregions to evidence negative values of greater magnitude. In Table 1 (Appendix 1) is provided detailed information on the differential variation. We realized that most mesorregions that compose the group 1 are those that have regions or metropolitan centers. In this group are included the mesoregions with positive structural and differential variation. The only exceptions are the mesoregions Vale do Itajai and Nordeste Riograndense that presented positive values in the differential variation and a small negative structural variation, but that did not compromise the positive values of Structural Differential Variation. This group of seven mesoregions presented positive contribution mainly from Less intensive knowledge services, butall the knowledge-intensive services have also contributed, and most of the medium-high technology industries were also significant. In Group 2 was presented a negative differential variation but positive differential structural variation (the sum of the total of differential variation and the total of structural variation), ie, the Norte Central Paranaense and the Oeste Paranaense showed a positive structure composed of dynamic sectors which offset the negative differential variation. The low-tech industries, but also the knowledge-intensive services and the medium-high technology industries, and the high technology industries were the main sectors that contributed more. In Group 3 we observed a positive differential variation, but the sum of the differential structural variation was negative, or in other words, the performance of these mesoregions were not better because they had no productive structure based on dynamic sectors. The local sectors were diverse but we recognized the presence of medium-high technology industries and knowledge-intensive services in several mesoregions. Group 4 and 5 showed the worst performance. In both groups the sum of the differential sectoral variation was negative, and in the majority so was the sum of structural variation. What distinguishes group 4 is that in these three mesoregions the structural 20 variation was positive but with low absolute value, which was not enough to offset the large magnitudes of negative values of differential variation. In group 5 the structural variation was negative in all mesoregions. It is noticed that in these two groups the sectors that contributed positively to the differential variation were related to industrial and primary sectors. Few tertiary sectors contributed positively, ie the sectoral performance of the tertiary sector in general was below of macroregional average in most of these mesoregions. Based on the results above (QLs and Shift-Share) we can classify the group of mesoregions according to the sectoral performance presented for the period from 2000 to 2010, highlighting which have a productive structure grounded on traditional sectors (old geographies) or on differentiated production structures, the new geographies. This grouping is shown in Figure 10. We found 6 groups of mesoregions in which four of them are associated with the old geographies and the others to new geographies. However, there is a group of metropolitan mesoregions which are associated to the two types of regions. The metropolitan mesoregions all present knowledge-intensive services and high technology industries, together with the trade and transportation sector. The location of these mesoregions and the profile of their economic and demographic agglomerations have helped explain the location of these sectors. In the group of Old Geographies are still the mesoregions which have a productive structure that is slightly intensive in knowledge and low-tech, and in general are mesoregions where the primary sector/mining industries and public services (PUS and Public Administration) have greater participation in the generation of employment. On what respects the set of New Geographies of mesoregions there are two interesting features to highlight: The first is the mesoregion of Centro Ocidental Rio-Grandense, which has a production structure where knowledge-intensive services and less knowledge-intensive services are directly related to the primary sector. We would expect that the primary sector were more related to specialized tertiary activities, such as transportation or trade. The last group of mesoregions presents a productive structure that includes high technology industries sectors associated to transportation and/or trade, and public sectors or low-tech industries. There were three mesoregions that had these characteristics: Nordeste Rio-Grandense, Oeste Paranaense and Noroeste Rio-Grandense. 21 Figure 10 - Mesorregional Profile - Old Geographies and New Geographies - 2010 Source: Results of the research. Notes: HTI = High technology industries, LTI = Low-tech industries, KIS = Knowledge-intensive services, LIKS = Less intensive knowledge services. Are high technology industries present in the previous mesoregions? The response to this question is detailed in Table 2 that follows below. 22 Table 2 - Activities with more employed people in selected sectors, by selected mesoregions 2010 Mesoregions Nordeste Rio-Grandense Oeste Paranaense Noroeste Rio-Grandense HTI LTI KIS Manufacture of cabins, truck bodies, trailers and parts to automotive vehicles. Manufacture of pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceutical products Manufacture of machinery and equipment Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment Preschool and elementary school (education) Slaughter and manufacturing of meat and fish products Preschool and elementary school (education) Slaughter and manufacturing of meat and fish products Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment Manufacture of footwear and parts for footwear, of any material Manufacture of footwear and parts for footwear, of any material Preschool and elementary school (education) Centro Ocidental Rio-Grandense Manufacture of machinery and equipment Metropolitana de Curitiba Manufacture and assembly of automotive vehicles Metropolitana de Porto Alegre Manufacture of machinery and equipment Grande Florianópolis Construction of boats Undergraduate Education Juridical activities, accounting and auditing Juridical activities, accounting and auditing Juridical activities, accounting and auditing Source: Results of the research. Notes: HTI = high technology industries, LTI = Low-tech industries, KIS = Knowledge-intensive services, LIKS = Less intensive knowledge services. Based on Table 2, we can argument that the activities that occupy most people in each regarded mesoregions as the New Geographies are different, especially when we evaluate the high-tech sectors. While there is a predominance of construction and assembly of vehicles/vessels in the metropolitan regions, the high-tech sector of the remaining mesoregions is related to manufacturing machinery and equipment, or pharmaceutical chemistry, or the manufacture of cabins. This may be related to the low-tech industries existing in these mesoregions that, in general, also relate to the existing agricultural practices. CONCLUSION The results of the shift-share method showed interesting results: the metropolitan mesoregions, including Norte Central Paranaense, Centro Oriental Paranaense and the Oeste Paranaense, e o Norte Catarinense e Sul Catarinense and the Sudoeste Rio-Grandense and the Centro Ocidental Rio-Grandense evidenced a positive structural variation, demonstrating that these mesoregions were already specialized in activities with good performance between 2000 and 2010. Moreover, the differential variation was positive in the mesoregions Nordeste RioGrandense forming a line passing through the Centro Oriental Paranaense to Oeste Catarinense. In these mesoregions local factors were responsible for the good performance. 23 Considering the main objectives of this paper, we conclude that the restructuring process in Southern Brazil is related to the growth of technological and knowledge sectors, mainly concentrated in the metropolitan areas and their surrounding urban poles, configuring a metropolization process. Despite this metropolitan concentration of new sectors, medium-sized cities emerge in relation to high and medium technological industries specialization or the presence of high knowledge intensive services. The second are the regions which concentrate mainly national/regional capital. Here, there is the transformation of the productive regions where some specialize in knowledge-intensive services and high technology industries (with a higher volume of capital concentrated in these regions, usually in the metropolitan areas), and others specialize in sectors less knowledge-intensive and low tech (lower concentration of capital, usually in the more peripheral regions). These patterns represent new geographies of economic activities that are strongly related to the metropolization process and to the reinforcement of functional urban regions. Nevertheless, behind these new tendencies that reflect globalization and high integration of these regions in global networks, some regions maintain their dependency on lower technological sectors, such as primary production, labour intensive industry sectors in fordist logic, non-specialized tertiary activities like trade, transportation and services and also public services, depicting "Old Geographies", as they represent traditional sectorial and organizational structures. New and old geographies are living together largely commanded by urbanization process of Brazil. REFERENCES CAMAGNI, Roberto (2002). On the concept of territorial competitiveness: sound or misleading? Paper presented at the ERSA Conference, Dortmund, august 2002. CAMAGNI, Roberto; CAPELLO, Roberta. (2012): Regional competitiveness and territorial capital: a conceptual approach and empirical evidence from the European Union, Regional Studies. V. 46, DOI:10.1080/00343404.2012.681640 CAPELLO, Roberta (2007). 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Coimbra, Portugal: APDR. 27 Appendix 1 (Table 1) Main sectors which contributed positively and negatively on structural differential variation by mesoregions of the South of Brazil 2000/2010 Groups Mesos Centro Oriental Paranaense Metropolitana de Curitiba Norte Catarinense DSV_ Total 6.588 131.735 82.180 DV_ Total 3.694 49.971 81.622 Pop. Total 2010 689.279 3.493.742 127.740 128.733 Sul Catarinense Nordeste Rio-grandense GROUP 2 Norte Central Paranaense 86.094 31.052 18.003 61.863 30.249 28.912 Região Metropolitana Sudoeste Paranaense Primary sector LIKS- trade Knowledge-intensive services LIKS- accommodation and food LIKS- transportation 6. Construction industry 7. Medium-low technology industries 8. PUS 9. Medium-high technology industries 10.High technology industries 7. LIKS- accommodation and food 8. LIKS- other activities 9. PUS 10. LIKS- total 11. Construction industry 12. Medium-low technology industries 13. LIKS- trade 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIKS- total LIKS- other activities Primary sector LIKS- accommodation and food LIKS- transportation 6. Knowledge-intensive services 7. Mining industries 8. PUS 9. Medium-high technology industries 10.High technology industries 4. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 5. High technology industries 6. LIKS- accommodation and food 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. LIKS- total Knowledge-intensive services LIKS- trade Primary sector LIKS- other activities Medium-low technology industries Construction industry LIKS- total LIKS- other activities LIKS- trade Knowledge-intensive services Low-tech industries Construction industry LIKS- transportation 8. LIKS- public administration 9. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 10.Medium-high technology industries 11.LIKS- accommodation and food 12.PUS 13.Mining industries 8. LIKS- public administration 9. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 10.LIKS- accommodation and food 11.Medium-low technology industries 12.PUS 13.Medium-high technology industries 14.primary sector 7. Construction industry 8. LIKS- transportation 9. Primary sector 10.Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 11.Mining industries 12.Medium-high technology industries 7. Knowledge-intensive services 8. Medium-high technology industries 9. LIKS- public administration 10.Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 11.LIKS- accommodation and food 12.High technology industries 6. LIKS- accommodation and food 7. LIKS- public administration 8. Knowledge-intensive services 9. PUS 10.LIKS- transportation 6. 7. 8. 9. Primary sector LIKS- total LIKS- trade LIKS- outras actividades 1.508.980 Núcleo metropolitano 4. LIKS- accommodation and food 5. LIKS- trade 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 994.095 Núcleo metropolitano 1. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 2. LIKS- accommodation and food 3. LIKS- public administration 4. PUS 5. Knowledge-intensive services 6. 7. 8. 9. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. LIKS- total Knowledge-intensive services LIKS- trade LIKS- accommodation and food Low-tech industries LIKS- public administration Núcleo metropolitano 1. 2. 3. 4. Mining industries Medium-low technology industries Low-tech industries Construction industry 5. PUS 6. LIKS- trade 7. LIKS- transportation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. LIKS- total LIKS- other activities Low-tech industries LIKS- trade Construction industry Primary sector 1. Medium-low technology industries 2. Medium-high technology industries 3. Low-tech industries 4. Indústrias extractivas 5. LIKS- transportation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIKS- total LIKS- other activities Medium-low technology industries Primary sector LIKS- trade 6. 7. 8. 9. LIKS- total LIKS- transportation LIKS- accommodation and food Construction industry 1. 2. 3. 4. Low-tech industries LIKS- transportation Knowledge-intensive services Medium-low technology industries 5. 6. 7. 8. 5. 6. 7. LIKS- total primary sector LIKS- other activities Construction industry LIKS- transportation PUS LIKS- trade 925.065 1.054.203 - 12.730 -2.919 2.037.183 Região Metropolitana 1.283 -4.482 1.219.558 - -13.158 5.066 497.127 - GROUP 3 DSV - e DV + Positive Contribution in Differential Variation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. Low-tech industries 2. Medium-low technology industries 3. Construction industry DSV + e DV Oeste Paranaense Mining industries LIKS- transportation Construction industry LIKS- accommodation and food PUS High technology industries Mining industries Medium-high technology industries Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 5. LIKS- transportation 6. Knowledge-intensive services Núcleo metropolitano 1.212.843 DSV + e DV + Grande Florianópolis - QLs>1 in 2010 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. Medium-high technology industries 2. Medium-low technology industries 3. Low-tech industries GROUP 1 Vale do Itajaí Metropolis 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. Low-tech industries High technology industries LIKS- trade LIKS- other activities Knowledge-intensive services High technology industries PUS LIKS- trade LIKS- accommodation and food LIKS- public administration LIKS- other activities LIKS- total High technology industries Construction industry LIKS- trade LIKS- total 5. PUS 6. Medium-high technology industries 7. High technology industries 1. Low-tech industries 2. Knowledge-intensive services 3. Primary sector 4. Construction industry 5. Medium-high technology industries 6. High technology industries 1. Low-tech industries 2. Construction industry 3. Knowledge-intensive services 7. PUS 8. LIKS- public administration 9. High technology industries 28 4. Primary sector Centro-Sul Paranaense Sudeste Paranaense -11.929 -6.586 2.521 10.265 544.190 404.779 - - Oeste Catarinense -27.554 15.892 1.200.712 - Centro Ocidental Riograndense -22.689 -22.759 536.938 - GROUP 4 DSV - e DV – (com SV +) GROUP 5 1. Primary sector 1. Primary sector 2. Low-tech industries 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. LIKS- public administration Primary sector LIKS- other activities High technology industries Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services Knowledge-intensive services Medium-low technology industries LIKS- accommodation and food Low-tech industries 1. 2. 3. 4. Primary sector Construction industry LIKS- public administration LIKS- trade 5. Knowledge-intensive services 6. PUS 7. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 8. LIKS- total 2. Indústrias extractivas 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Primary sector LIKS- total LIKS- trade LIKS- transportation Medium-high technology industries Construction industry 7. LIKS- other activities 8. PUS 9. Mining industries 10.LIKS- public administration 11.High technology industries 3. LIKS- transportation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. LIKS- total Low-tech industries LIKS- trade LIKS- other activities Construction industry Knowledge-intensive services 7. LIKS- public administration 8. LIKS- accommodation and food 9. Medium-high technology industries 10.PUS 11.Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 12.LIKS- transportation 4. LIKS- Total 5. Knowledge-intensive services 1. Primary sector 2. PUS 3. Mining industries 7. PUS 8. LIKS- public administration 9. LIKS- transportation 10. LIKS- trade 11. LIKS- total 12. Construction industry 1. Primary sector 2. Mining industries -60.777 151.245 4.742.302 Sudoeste Rio-grandense -49.591 -57.520 723.005 - 1. Primary sector 2. Construction industry Noroeste Paranaense -17.069 -6.447 678.319 - 1. Low-tech industries 2. Primary sector 3. PUS 4. LIKS- public administration Centro Ocidental Paranaense -14.674 -9.729 334.125 - 1. Primary sector 2. LIKS- trade 3. LIKS- outras actividades Norte Pioneiro Paranaense -36.861 -25.190 546.224 - 1. Primary sector 2. PUS 3. LIKS- public administration -9.435 -6.523 406.741 - 1. Primary sector 2. LIKS- public administration 3. LIKS- transportation 4. LIKS- total -154.523 -89.644 1.946.510 - 1. Primary sector 2. Mining industries 3. LIKS- Public administration 4. Medium-high technology industries 1. Medium-high technology industries 2. Low-tech industries 3. Construction industry 2. Low-tech industries 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. DSV - e DV – (com SV -) Noroeste Rio-grandense Centro Oriental Riograndense -33.907 Sudeste Rio-grandense -38.651 -5.179 -37.152 778.841 912.130 - - 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. Primary sector 1. Primary sector 2. Mining industries 3. LIKS- public administration 10.Medium-high technology industries 11.LIKS- accommodation and food 3. Construction industry 4. LIKS- public administration Metropolitana de Porto Alegre Serrana Região Metropolitana 1. Primary sector 2. PUS 4. LIKS- Trade 5. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 6. Medium-low technology industries 4. LIKS- outras actividades 5. LIKS- transportation 6. LIKS- total Source: Results of the research. Notes: DV = differential variation; DSV = differential structural variation; SV = structural variation. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. Primary sector LIKS- other activities Low-tech industries Construction industry Medium-low technology industries Medium-high technology industries Low-tech industries Construction industry Medium-low technology industries Low-tech industries Medium-high technology industries LIKS- trade Primary sector LIKS- trade LIKS- accommodation and food LIKS- trade Primary sector Construction industry Knowledge-intensive services PUS 1. Primary sector 3. Mining industries 5. PUS 6. Mining industries 7. Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services 4. Mining industries 5. High technology industries 4. PUS 5. High technology industries 4. 5. 6. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. Construction industry Medium-high technology industries Mining industries LIKS- TRANSPORTATION Medium-low technology industries Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services LIKS- public administration Knowledge-intensive and hightechnology services LIKS- transportation High technology industries
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