Abstract No.: 196 Bicycle Use in Indian Cities: Understanding the Opportunities and Threats Premjeet Das Gupta1 +, Kshama Puntambekar2 Abstract The study explores the opportunities and threats with respect to bicycle use in India, with reference to the recent literature on bicycle use. The study attempts to understand the role of bicycles with respect to livelihoods and the urban poor in India, trip characteristics of bicyclists in India, variation in bicycle use in Indian cities, future of bicycle use in Indian cities in do-nothing scenario, and the potential market for bicycle use in India. Keywords Bicycle, urban poor, livelihoods, trip length distribution, ‘other workers’, modal share 1. Introduction Bicycles have a role to play in supporting the mobility and livelihoods of the urban poor (Anand, Tiwari, & Ravi, 2006), in making public transport accessible to more people at lesser cost and curbing harmful automobile emissions (Replogle, 1992b). Efficient polycentric metropolitan structure can be achieved through integration of bicycles with Public Transport (PT) and it is possible to augment the catchment area for access to transit stops and stations by up to forty times in this way (Replogle, 1992b). Jain and Tiwari (2011) estimated the impact of improved PT and Non Motorized Transport (NMT) facilities on CO2 emissions in Delhi, Pune and Patna. The study indicated that a combined strategy for improving PT and promoting NMT is likely to result in greater reduction in CO2 emissions than isolated strategies for each. From the point of view of sustainable transport, it is necessary to promote bicycle use especially in cities of the developing world where economic growth is accompanied by increasing use of personal motorized transport. Indian cities offer favourable condition for bicycle use in terms of mixed land use and relatively high proportion of short trip lengths (Tiwari, 2011), but there are barriers to bicycling in the form of affordability-related issues, bicycle-hostile street environments, bicycle theft, social attitudes to Non Motorized Vehicles (NMVs), regulatory suppression of NMV traffic, etc. (Replogle, 1992b). In this context it is necessary to review the scenario of bicycle use in urban India. In this paper an attempt has been made to study the opportunities and threats with respect to bicycle use in India, with reference to the recent literature on bicycle use. The objectives of this paper are to understand the following: Role of bicycles with respect to livelihoods and the urban poor in India Trip characteristics of bicyclists in India Variation in bicycle use in Indian cities Future of bicycle use in Indian cities in do-nothing scenario The potential market for bicycle use in India 2. Bicycles, livelihoods and the urban poor in India Bicyclists in Indian cities are mainly ‘captive users’, who use bicycle because of affordability issues (Tiwari & Jain, 2008; Arora, 2011; Jain, 2012; TRIPP, IIT Delhi, 2012). In India, the economically weaker section of society typically locates itself very close to work opportunities, whether by legal or illegal means (Tiwari, 2011). Squatter settlements near the place of work of the urban poor are major trip generators and high-income households are major trip attractors for the bicycle-borne urban working class (Jain & Tiwari, 2009). Certain occupations were found to be dependent on cycles for mobility in a survey of slum dwellers and the low income working class in Delhi by IIT Delhi (Anand, Tiwari, & Ravi, 2006). These may be classified as: home-based service providers (sweeper, stove-cooker repairing, etc.), delivery men (newspaper, courier, etc.), and vendors (cloth, cooked food, etc.). As far as the urban working class was concerned, 79% of the sample was found to be active cyclists. Among the places of work reported by the respondents, cyclists outnumbered non-cyclists in almost all the categories, indicating a clear preference for cycle among those whose livelihoods depend on constant mobility. 1 Assistant Professor, School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal Assistant Professor, School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal + Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected] 2 1 Bicycles have been associated with the urban poor in India over the decades. In a study dating back to 1979 the overwhelming majority of cyclists in Delhi, Jaipur and Hyderabad were found to be from the lowest income groups, belonging to the unskilled category (Replogle, 1992a). In 1999 the share of walk and cycle among the low income households in Delhi was more than ten times that among the high-income households (Tiwari, 2002). A recent survey of cyclists in six Indian cities including Delhi shows that the majority of them earn less Rs.10,000 per month. Between 20% in Delhi and around 70% in Lucknow, a significant proportion of cyclists earn between Rs.3,001 and Rs.6,000 per month (TERI, 2014). Motorized personal modes are difficult to afford by low income groups, which leads one to question the affordability of public transport. A person living in any Indian city or town can be called poor if she or he does not have the means to spend more than Rs.1,407 per month (at 2011-12 prices) for basic needs. This is the Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) considered for defining the Urban Poverty Line in India (Planning Commission, 2014). The share of conveyance in the urban Poverty Level Basket is taken to be 7.3%, which means that the monthly expenditure on transport by a ‘poor’ person living in India’s cities or towns would be around Rs.103 only. The minimum one way fare for Intermediate Public Transport (IPT) or PT in Indian cities is around Rs.5, which translates into a monthly expenditure of Rs.250 considering 25 days of work a month. Thus IPT or PT would be out of consideration for the majority of the urban poor, who have no option, but to use non-motorized modes like walk and bicycle for their daily travels. The urban poverty ratio in India in 2011-12 was 26.4%, which puts the number of urban poor in India in 2011-12 at a staggering 102.47 million persons, indicating the sheer magnitude of trips possibly made by captive cyclists in urban India. Share of bicycle in trips by 'other workers' in urban areas in Indian states (%) Plotting the share of bicycle in trips made by ‘other workers’ in urban areas in each state of India (Census of India, 2011) against the urban poverty ratio of the corresponding state (Planning Commission, 2014), one observes a distinct association between the two (Figure 1). In India ‘other workers’ can be taken to be the largest grouping of workers in urban areas. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 Urban poverty ratio in Indian states (%) Figure 1: Variation in modal share of bicycle in trips by urban ‘other workers’ with urban poverty ratio in Indian states (Source: Census of India, 2011; Planning Commission, 2014) 3. How far are bicyclists travelling in urban India? Most Indian cities have traditional cores where a high degree of mixed land use is observed. The trip length distribution of a city, which is a function of land use and general cost of transport, is an indicator of the opportunity for making non-motorized trips (Replogle, 1992a). As per Census of India (2011) the maximum percentage of trips by ‘other workers’ in urban India (more than one third of the trips) are in the 1 – 5 km range (Figure 2), where cycle is regarded as the most efficient mode (Replogle, 1992a). The plot for cumulative frequency shows that almost 60% of all the trips take place within 5 km and, almost 80%, within 10km. These are combined figures for all cities and towns of India, which has a very high number of small towns. 2 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percentage of trips 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0-1 2-5 6-10 11-20 20 21-30 31-50 Percentage of trips (cumulative) 40 51+ Trip length (km) Figure 2:: Trip length distribution of trips by ‘other workers’ in urban India (Source: Census of India, 2011 2011) Using Census 2011 data, trips by urban ‘other workers’ were classified by distance for each mode (Figure 3). As expected for bicycle the largest share is of trips is in the 2 – 5 km range. However, it is worth noting that the share of trips above 6 km is 30%, 0%, indicating the existence of a market for long distance commuting in India. Figure 3: Trips made by ‘other workers’ in urban India classified by distance for different modes (Source: Census of India, 2011) Analysis of the Census 2011 data on modal share of trips by ‘other workers’ in urban India reveals that share of bicycles in the 21 – 30 km distance category is more than that in any other distance category (share in 2 – 5 km category is second highest),, as shown in Figure 4. 4 Bicycle competes well with ith other modes in the 1.5 – 5.5 km category as expected, losing out to motorized two-wheelers two in the 5.5 – 10.5 km and 11.5 – 20.5 km categories. However, in the 21 – 30 km distance category bicycle dominates with a share of 29.4%. Figure 4: Share of different modes in trips made by urban ‘other workers’ across distance ranges (Source: Source: Census of India, 2011) 3 4. Variation in bicycle use in Indian cities Modal share data made available by the Ministry of the Urban Development (MoUD, 2008) is use used to analyze the variation in bicycle use in thirty Indian cities. It is seen that in smaller cities share of cycle trips is generally high. In these cities bicycle competes favourably with car-based trips, but loses out to M2W. The share of bicycle is relatively less in the six most populous cities even as the share share of PT trips increases greatly in these cities. This is shown in Figure 5. Figure 5:: Comparison of modal share of trips across thirty cities (Source: MoUD, 2008) Cities where population is less than 2 million have very high share of cycle trips trips. Share of cycle trips is relatively less in cities where the population is more than 5 million. Hill cities (along with Panaji) have low share of cycle trips besides having low populations. population This is shown in Figure 6. Figure 6: Comparison of share of cycle trips and population across thirty cities (Source: MoUD, 2008) Share hare of cycle trips is relatively low in cities where population is more than 10 million, but absolute number of trips in these cities far outnumbers tnumbers that in smaller cities. This is shown in Figure 7. Bicycle promotion strategy should be framed for these cities with a view towards increasing the share of cycle trips since a small increase in share would translate into nto a large number of additional cycle trips. Figure 7: Comparison of share of cycle trips and absolute number of cycle trips across thirty cities (Source: Source: MoUD, 2008) 4 Average verage trip length increases with increasing population in the thirty cities as shown in Figure 8. More populous cities are larger in terms of area, hence it can be said that increase in trip length goes hand in hand with increase in city area. Figure 8: Comparison of average trip length (all modes) and population across thirty cities (Source: MoUD, 2008) Share of cycle trips (across thirty cities) (%) An inverse relation is observed between the share of cycle trips and the average trip length as well as the Per Capita Trip Rate (PCTR) for the thirty cities as shown in Figures 9 and 10. However when the share of cycle trips is plotted against the share of work trips accessible within 15 minutes in the thirty cities (MoUD, 2008), no clear relation is observed (Figure 11). 11 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 Avg. trip length (across thirty cities) (km) Share of cycle trips (across thirty trips) (%) Figure 9: Variation in share of bicycle trips with average trip length in thirty cities (Source: MoUD, 2008) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Per Capita Trip Rate (across thirty trips) Figure 10: Variation in share of bicycle trips with PCTR in thirty cities (Source: MoUD, 2008) 5 Share of bicycle trips (across thirty trips) (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Share of work trips accessible within 15 mins. (across thirty trips) (%) Figure 11: Variation in share of bicycle trips with share of work trips accessible within 15 mins. in thirty cities (Source: MoUD, 2008) 5. The future of bicycle use in Indian cities in do-nothing scenario A study by Interface for Cycling Expertise (I-ce, 2008) documents the change in the modal share of bicycle in eight cities of India from the 1980s to the 2000s (Figure 12). Another study by IIT Delhi (2013) documents the share of cycle trips in seven cities in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and post 2005 (Figure 13). It is seen that with the exception of Patna, modal share of bicycle has declined over time in all cities. The decline is sharpest in Delhi, Pune, Bangalore and Jaipur. Marginal improvement is observed in the modal share of bicycle in Delhi and Bangalore post-2005. Figure 12: Change in share of bicycle trips in eight cities (Source: I-ce, 2008) Figure 13: Change in share of bicycle trips in eight cities (Source: IIT Delhi, 2013) Replogle (1992) was concerned that most mid and small sized cities in India could lose their NMT dependent modal orientation if the interests of NMT users were overlooked by government. Under this scenario, trip lengths were likely to increase and the share of NMT was likely to decrease sharply. Not only the mid and small sized cities, larger cities like Kolkata and Chennai, which could be classified as PT-dependent Mixed Traffic System cities, were likely to transform into Motor Vehicle (MV) dependent cities. Trip share of PT, NMT Private Vehicles (PV) and IPT was projected for thirty cities by MoUD (2008). In ‘do nothing’ scenario share of NMT was projected to decline across all categories of cities (Table 1). Sub-million cities were projected to be biggest losers in terms of percentage. Cities falling in the 1 – 2 milion range were the next most vulnerable in terms of percentage loss in NMT share. In percentage terms the projected loss in share of bicycle in bigger cities was relatively small, but given the large number of trips in these cities, the absolute loss could be much bigger than that in the smaller cities. 6 Table 1: Projected trip share of PT, NMT and combination of PV and IPT for different size classes of Indian cities (for thirty cities) (Source: MoUD, 2008) 2007 (base year) PT PV + NMT IPT PT 2011 PV + IPT NMT PT 2021 PV + IPT NMT PT 2031 PV + IPT NMT City Category <0.5 mn with plain terrain 5 57 38 4 59 36 3 66 31 2 72 26 <0.5 mn with hilly terrain 8 34 58 7 37 56 5 47 48 3 57 40 0.5 – 1 mn 9 39 53 8 42 50 6 51 43 5 58 36 1 – 2 mn 13 43 44 12 46 43 10 52 38 9 57 34 2 – 4 mn 10 47 43 9 49 42 8 51 41 8 52 40 4 – 8 mn 22 42 36 21 45 35 15 51 34 12 54 34 >8 mn 46 24 30 42 28 30 31 40 29 26 46 28 Average 16 41 43 15 44 42 11 51 38 9 57 34 6. Identifying potential cyclists It has been discussed that cyclists in India almost entirely fall under the ‘captive user’ category. While it is important to ensure that the modal preference of captive cyclists is not affected, strategies should be drawn up to encourage potential cyclists to take up cycling actively. Any person who is able to use a bicycle and has access to one can turn out to be a potential cyclist, though there can be many hidden factors that discourage people from cycling. Some of the trips where bicycle use can be induced are: access and egress components of PT trips; educational trips; and, shopping/social/recreational trips. In a study of bus commuters in Delhi 7% of the sampled commuters reported their total trip length (combined length of access, main haul, and egress trip) to be less than 5 km (Tiwari & Jain, 2008). Also, Delhi Metro users were reported to have longer and costlier access trips. This gives an indication of the potential for bicycle-based access and egress trips. In yet another study of bus commuters in Delhi it was found that 80% of the bus commuters owned cycles (Advani & Tiwari, 2006). Among the cycle owners only 1% were found to be actually using cycle for access trips. 97% of the cycle owners were walking to the bus stop. Out of these walk trips, 56% were more than 0.5 km in length. Of these people, 91% were earming less than Rs.10,000 per month. This group was identified as a prime source of potential cyclists. Of the 20% bus commuters who did not own cycles, 98% walked to the bus stop. Out of these trips, 48% were more than 0.5 km in length. This group was also identified as a source for potential cyclists. Bhamidipati (2008) observed that education trips constitute the second largest category of trips made in most urban areas in India. To further explore the scenario in respect of non-work trips in general and education trips in particular, data on modal share of trips was obtained for eleven cities from official Comprehensive Mobility Plans (CMPs), Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Plans (CTTPs), Integrated Mobility Plans (IMPs), and Low Carbon Mobility Plans (LCMPs). When compared, it was seen that except for two of the cities, education trips indeed form the second largest group of trips (Table 2). With the exception of Nagpur and Pune, education trips range between 16% (Kolkata Metropolitan Area) and 44% (Amritsar). If Nagpur and Pune are not considered, it can be seen that average share of education trips in the non-metro cities are more than that in the large metropolitan cities (Kolkata and Bengaluru). As a whole non-work trips, which includes all trips other than work trips and business trips, make up around 50% of the total trips in almost all cities. 7 Source Year 46 44 - 12 100 CMP 2009 26 32 27 - 16 4 - CMP 2012 57 1 21 9 - - 11 100 1 100 LCMP 2014 - 38 22 7 15 - 12 - 2 100 CMP 2011 7 11 49 24 9 7 - 7 20 100 - 6 100 9 100 Kolkata (Metropolitan Area) Bangalore (Metropolitan Area) 35 7 30 20 4 7 100 Ahmedabad (AMC) Pune 28 19 19 - 100 LCMP 2014 Jaipur Nagpur 39 - 38 - 53 Agra Rajkot Amritsar 50 - Vishakhapatnam Trip Purpose Work Business Educational Social and Recreation Social Shopping Shopping/Social/Recreation Religious Cultural Tourism/Pilgrimage Tourism Health Others Total Chandigarh (Urban Complex) Table 2: Modal share by purpose in eleven cities (Source: Chandigarh Administration, 2009; Punjab Municipal Infrastructure Development Company, 2012; Rajkot Municipal Corporation, 2014; Greater Visakhapatnam Municipal Corporation, 2014; Government of Uttar Pradesh, 2011; Nagpur Improvement Trust, 2012; Jaipur Development Authority, 2010; Pune Municipal Corporation, 2008; Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, Gandhinagar Urban Development Authority, Government of Gujarat, 2011; Karnataka Urban Infrastructure Development and Finance Corporation, 2011; Kolkata Metropolitan Development Authority, 2008) 57 - 61 - 23 - 16 13 4 2 - 20 100 1 3 100 CMP Greater CMP Ahmedabad CMP Integrated MobilityCMP Plan Interim CMP Report 2012 2010 2008 2011 2011 2008 There appears to be a dearth of published work on cyclists’ trip purpose in India. Comparing data from the LCMPs of Rajkot, Vishakhapatnam and Udaipur it is seen that bicycle use is mainly confined to work and education trips (Greater Visakhapatnam Municipal Corporation, 2014; Rajkot Municipal Corporation, 2014; Urban Improvement Trust, Udaipur, 2015). Proportion of bicycle in work trips was observed to be higher than that of education trips in all the three cities. However, compared to trips by other modes, cycle trips are very less in proportion, whereas walk trips have a significant presence in the overall trips. This is shown in Figures 14, 15 and 16. Figure 14: Modal share by trip purpose, Rajkot (Source: Rajkot Municipal Corporation, 2014) 100% 80% Car 60% Bus 40% Auto 20% 2W 0% Bicycle Walk Figure 15: Modal share by trip purpose, Vishakhapatnam (Source: Greater Visakhapatnam Municipal Corporation, 2014) 8 100% Car 80% Bus 60% IPT + Mini Bus 40% 2W 20% Bicycle Walk 0% Work Education Other Figure 16: Modal share by trip purpose, Udaipur (Source: Urban Improvement Trust, Udaipur, 2015) Share in trip purpose of cyclists (%) When data for Nagpur and Pune on cyclicts’ trip purpose was compared, no similarity was observed. While in Nagpur work/business accounts for most of the cycle trips, in Pune it was mostly school/college trips (Alando, Brussel, Zuidgeest, & Durgi, 2013; Nagpur Improvement Trust, 2012). This is hown in Figures 17 and 18. Bicycle use for non-work trips should be promoted in Indian cities but more research is required on the potential scope for inducing bicycle use in non-work trips. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Trip purpose Share of bicycle trip end destinations (%) Figure 17: Cyclists’ trip purpose, Nagpur (Source: Nagpur Improvement Trust, 2012) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Bicyle trip end destination categories Figure 18: Cyclists’ trip purpose, Pune (Source: Alando, Brussel, Zuidgeest, & Durgi, 2013) 7. Conclusion Bicycle is chosen by the urban poor in India because of affordability issues. Bicyclists in India are mostly ‘captive users’. There is a need to induce potential cyclists into active cycling. It is generally observed that higher the level of poverty in a state, higher is the modal share of bicycle in trips made by urban ‘other workers’ in that state. Even though almost 60% of bicycle trips by urban ‘other workers’ occurs within 5 km, there is a market for long distance commuting by bicycles as well in urban India. In large cities, especially the mega cities, share of cycles is low but absolute number of users is high. Even a small decline in the share of cycle trips in future in these large cities will lead to a large decline in absolute numbers. In view of the availability of public transport in many of the large cities, there is a need to explore the possibility of integrating bicycle trips with public transport. Modal share of bicycles is projected to decline most sharply in sub-million cities in a donothing scenario. The medium sized cities are also transforming into MV oriented cities. In such a scenario, there is a need to understand the public attitude and perception towards bicycle in small and medium cities. 9 Bicycle use is mostly confined to work and education trips in urban India. 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