ECONOMIC INDICATORS
CENTRAL BANK OF ICELAND
Contents
2 I Inflation and inflation expectations
5 II Output and demand
9 III Foreign trade and external economic conditions
13 IV Labour market and wages
16 V Public finances
18 VI Asset markets
20 VII Financial markets
March 2015
I Inflation and inflation expectations
I-2
I-1
20
Inflation: various measures
Consumer price inflation and core inflation
12-month % change
12-month % change
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
‘01 ‘02
‘03
‘04 ‘05 ‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13 ‘14
‘01 ‘02
‘03 ‘04 ‘05
‘08 ‘09 ‘10
‘11 ‘12 ‘13
‘14
Overall index and measures of underlying inflation. Core index 1 excludes
prices of agricultural products and petrol, and Core index 2 excludes prices of
public services as well. Core index 3 is Core index 2 excluding the effects of
changes in real interest rates on the housing component of the CPI. Monthly
data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Core index 4 is the consumer price index excluding prices of agricultural products,
petrol, public services and owner-equivalent rent. Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
I-3
I-4
Seasonally adjusted inflation
30
‘06 ‘07
CPI excluding housing
Core inflation 3 excluding tax effects
CPI
Core inflation 4 excluding tax effects
Core inflation 1
Core inflation 2
CPI
Inflation target
Core inflation 3
Components of CPI inflation
%
20
25
%
15
20
10
15
10
5
5
0
0
-5
‘01
‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07
-5
‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
2007
Three-month inflation rate
Annualised three-month inflation rate
This inflation measurement is very volatile but indicates how inflation pressures
are developing. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 ‘15
I-6
Imported and domestic inflation
Production and retail prices of domestic goods
12-month change (%)
12-month change (%)
30
8
25
6
20
4
2
15
0
10
-2
5
-4
-6
2009
Contribution of individual items to 12-month inflation. Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
I-5
10
2008
CPI
Domestic goods excluding agricultural products
Imported goods excl. alcohol, tobacco and petrol
Petrol
Private services
Housing
Other components
0
2011
2012
2013
CPI
Imported prices (32%)
Domestic prices excluding housing (45%)
2014
2015
-5
Housing (23%)
Inflation target
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Producer prices of domestic goods
Retail prices of domestic goods in the CPI
Imported inflation is estimated using imported food and beverages and the
price of new motor vehicles and spare parts, petrol, and other imported goods.
Domestic inflation is estimated using the price of domestic goods and the price
of private and public services. The figures in parentheses show the current
weight of these items in the CPI. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
2
2013
2014
‘15
I Inflation and inflation expectations
I-7
I-8
Price developments: housing and services
280
Price developments: housing
12-month % change
50
260
40
240
220
30
200
20
180
10
160
140
0
120
-10
100
80
12-month % change
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
Housing
CPI
‘10 ‘11 ‘12
Private services
-20 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07
‘13 ‘14
Repair and maintenance
Market price of housing
Public services
Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Price developments: wages and services
12-month % change
14
40
12
30
10
20
8
10
6
0
4
-10
2
‘01 ‘02
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
0
‘12 ‘13 ‘14
12-month % change
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
New cars and spare parts
Groceries
Petrol
‘10 ‘11
Private services
Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
‘13 ‘14
Wage index
I-12
Distribution of price increases in the CPI
Price developments: goods, housing and services
March 1997 = 100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
440
400
360
320
280
240
200
160
120
‘97
Public services
Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
I-11
80
Imputed rent
Paid rent
I-10
Price developments: various components
-20
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Paid rent shows developments in residential rent prices. Imputed rent estimates
the cost of living in owner-occupied housing and changes with housing market
values and real mortgage interest rates. Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
I-9
50
‘08
‘99
‘01
‘03
‘05
‘07
‘09
‘11
‘13
Imported goods excl. alcohol and tobacco
CPI
Paid house rent
Private services
Imputed house rent
%
12-month change (%)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
‘15
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Share of categories showing increase (left)
Share of categ. showing increase by more than 2.5% on an annual basis (left)
CPI (right)
Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
The share of goods categories that rise in price is a 3-month centred average.
Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
3
I Inflation and inflation expectations
I-14
I-13
Inflation expectations of businesses, households
and market one year ahead and current inflation
Breakeven inflation expectations
9
Latest: 20 March
%
18
8
16
7
14
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
0
%
2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
1-year breakeven inflation expectations
5-year breakeven inflation exp.
5-year / 5-year forward inflation expectations
Inflation target
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11 ‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
Household inflation expectations
Inflation
Businesses' inflation expectations
Market expectations
Breakeven inflation expectations are calculated from yield spreads between
nominal and index-linked Government and Government-backed bonds (5-day
moving averages). Daily data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Inflation expectations according to surveys carried out by Capacent Gallup and
the Central Bank. Respondents are asked about inflation 12 months ahead and
median figures are used. Businesses' inflation expectations were measured on
an irregular basis before 2006Q3 so until then measurements are interpolated.
Quarterly data.
Sources: Capacent Gallup, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
I-16
I-15
Inflation and exchange rate against euro
Import price levels and exchange rate developments
Change from same
quarter of previous year (%)
Monthly average 1997 = 100
Change from same
quarter of previous year (%)
220
18
-60
200
16
-50
14
-40
12
-30
160
10
-20
140
8
-10
6
0
4
10
2
20
180
120
100
80
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06
‘07 ‘08
0
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
2006
2007
Import-weighted exchange rate index (March 1997 = 100)
Imported goods excluding alcohol and tobacco
I-17
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 ‘15
Exchange rate of the króna against the euro
(reversed right axis)
I-18
Price level and exchange rate developments
Month-on-month change (%)
Month-on-month change (%)
Inflation in Iceland and Europe
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
-1
-5
-2
-10
-3
2009
Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Import-weighted exchange rate index and price of imported goods in the CPI.
The import exchange rate index is published with a one-month time lag, as
price level measurements are carried out at mid-month.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
4
2008
Inflation (left)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 ‘15
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-15
Consumer price index (left)
Exchange rate index (right)
12-month % change
‘01 ‘02
Iceland
The exchange rate index is calculated based on a narrow trade basket. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
44
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06
Euro area
‘07 ‘08
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Maastricht reference value
Harmonised indices of consumer prices. Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
30
II Output and demand
II-2
II-1
Contribution of individual components to output growth
Contribution of individual components to output growth
20
Year-on-year change (%)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Private consumption
GDP
Gross fixed capital formation
2007
2008
2009
2010
Private consumption
GDP
Gross fixed capital formation
Public consumption
Net trade
2011
2012
2013
Public consumption
Change in inventoriesi
2014
Net trade
Seasonally adjusted quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Contribution of individual components to output growth. Change on a year
earlier. Annual data.
Source: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
II-4
II-3
Private consumption, public consumption and
gross fixed capital formation
Output growth and national expenditure
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Change from previous quarter (%)
Year-on-year change (%)
Year-on-year change (%)
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
-10
-20
-20
-40
-30
-60
-40 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 -80
‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Output growth
Year-on-year change (%)
30
Public consumption (left)
Private consumption (left)
Gross fixed capital formation (right)
National expenditure
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
II-6
II-5
Foreign trade
Gross fixed capital formation
Year-on-year change (%)
Year-on-year change (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01
‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Total gross fixed capital formation
Residential
Businesses
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Public sector
‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Imports of goods and services
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Contribution of individual items to gross capital formation. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
5
Exports of goods and services
II Output and demand
II-7
II-8
Turnover according to VAT returns
Percentage change in real terms from same period of prev. year
Turnover according to VAT returns: several components
1998=100
180
80
15
160
70
10
140
5
120
20
B.kr.
60
0
100
50
-5
80
40
-10
60
-15
40
-20
20
20
-25 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
0
10 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11
‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
Total turnover, index (right)
Domestic sector (left)
‘09 ‘10
‘11 ‘12
‘13 ‘14
30
Total turnover (left)
Construction
II-9
Services
Retail
II-10
Payment card turnover
12-month % change
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
Total household payment card turnover
12-month % change
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
Household domestic payment card turnover year-to-date (right)
Household turnover abroad (left)
Household domestic payment card turnover (right)
Change between quarters (%)
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
Year-on-year change (%)
‘07
‘08
Change between quarters (left)
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
-24
-28
-32
Change on a year earlier (right)
Seasonally adjusted debit and credit card turnover deflated by the CPI less
housing costs. Turnover abroad is deflated by the exchange rate index. Points
show 2-month average of values in January and February. Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Debit and credit card turnover deflated by the CPI less housing costs.
Turnover abroad is deflated by the exchange rate index. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
II-11
II-12
Household payment card turnover
65
‘13 ‘14
Deflated by the CPI. Retail sector is deflated by the CPI excluding housing and petrol,
and construction sector is deflated by the CPI. Seasonally adjusted data for two-month
periods.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Deflated by the CPI. Seasonally adjusted data for two-months periods.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
‘12
Foreign payment card turnover in Iceland
B.kr.
12
12-month % change
B.kr.
45
60
55
8
30
4
15
50
45
40
Jan.
0
Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2013
2014
2015
Jan.
Feb. Mar. Apr. May June
July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Total foreign payment card turnover in 2014 (right)
Total foreign payment card turnover in 2015 (right)
Debit and credit card turnover deflated by the CPI excluding the housing
component. Foreign turnover deflated by the trade-weighted exchange rate
index. Based on average prices and exchange rates in 2014. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
2013 (left)
2014 (left)
2015 (left)
Foreign payment card turnover deflated by the CPI less housing costs.
Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
6
0
II Output and demand
II-13
II-14
Groceries turnover
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Retail indices
‘03
‘04
‘05
Index, January 2008 = 100
12-month % change
Nov. 2001 = 100
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
120
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
2008
12-month change on 3-month moving averages (right)
Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving averages (left)
Average year-to-date (right)
2009
2010
2011
Fast moving consumer goods
Shoes
Furniture
2012
2013
Alcohol
2014
2015
Clothes
Seasonally adjusted. Deflated by price indices of each component.
Monthly data.
Sources: Icelandic Centre for Retail Studies, Central Bank of Iceland.
Deflated by price of groceries in CPI. Monthly data.
Sources: Icelandic Centre for Retail Studies, Central Bank of Iceland.
II-15
II-16
Private consumption, groceries and
payment card turnover
20
Private consumption and Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index
Year-on-year volume change (%)
180
Year-on-year volume change (%)
Index
20
15
160
15
10
140
10
120
5
100
0
80
-5
-15
60
-10
-20
40
-15
-25
20
-20
-30
0
5
0
-5
-10
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
‘01 ‘02 ‘03
‘04 ‘05 ‘06
‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10
‘11 ‘12
‘13 ‘14
Private consumption (right)
Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index (left)
Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index expectations six months ahead (left)
Groceries turnover
Private consumption
Households’ domestic payment card turnover
Households’ payment card turnover
The Capacent Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index is a measure of general
consumers' Sentiment towards the economy and the labour market. Points show
2-month average of values in January and February. Quarterly data.
Sources: Capacent Gallup, Statistics Iceland.
Points show 2-month average of values in January and February. Quarterly data.
Sources: Icelandic Centre for Retail Studies, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of
Iceland.
II-18
II-17
Corporation expectations towards the
economic situation and outlook
Indices of expected big-ticket purchases
Index
Index
Ratio (%)
Index
180
200
80
160
175
75
70
140
150
50
60
120
125
25
50
100
40
80
100
0
30
60
20
40
10
0
90
-25
‘02 ‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
Expected big-ticket purchases (left)
Expected purchases of cars (left)
Expected purchases of travel (right)
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
100
75
-25
50
-50
20
25
-75
0
0
‘03
‘05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‘15
Strongly positive (right)
Positive (right)
Strongly negative (right)
Negative (right)
Sentiments towards situation in six months (left)
Expected purchases of real estate
property (left)
Current situation (left)
The Business sentiment indices are based upon Capacent Gallup's survey of the
largest companies in Iceland conducted 4 times a year. The columns show the
sentiments towards the current situation of the economy.
Source: Capacent Gallup.
Indices of expected big-ticket purchases are based on Capacent Gallup consumer
sentiment survey. The index for expected big-ticket purchases is an average of
the other three indices. Quarterly data.
Source: Capacent Gallup.
7
-100
II Output and demand
II-20
II-19
Consumer sentiment (Gallup)
180
Consumer sentiment (Gallup)
Index
%
80
160
60
140
40
120
20
100
0
80
-20
60
-40
40
-60
20
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
-80
0 ‘01 ‘02
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06
‘07 ‘08
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13
-100
‘14
Negative for current economic situation (right)
Positive for current economic situation (right)
Expectations 6 months ahead (left)
Consumer Sentiment Index (left)
Current economic situation (left)
Index
Jan.
Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2012
2014
2015
The Capacent Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index is a measure of general
consumers' Sentiment towards the economy and the labour market. Monthly
data.
Source: Capacent Gallup.
The Capacent Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index is a measure of general
consumers' Sentiment towards the economy and the labour market.
Monthly data.
Source: Capacent Gallup.
II-22
II-21
New registration of motor vehicles
Cement sales
12-month % change
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
2013
Thous. tonnes
‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Cement sales (seasonally adjusted) (right)
Cement sales excluding heavy industry (left)
140
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
12-month % change
Number
3,200
110
2,800
80
2,400
50
2,000
20
1,600
-10
1,200
-40
800
-70
400
-100
‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Total cement sales (left)
Car registrations, seasonally adjusted (right)
0
Car registrations (left)
3-month moving average. New motor vehicle registrations include new and
used vehicles in all categories (passenger cars, motor coaches and delivery
and transport vehicles). Monthly data.
Sources: The Icelandic Transport Authority, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of
Iceland.
3-month moving average. Monthly data.
Sources: Aalborg Portland hf., BM Vallá, Sementsverksmiðjan hf., Central
Bank of Iceland.
III Foreign trade and external economic conditions
III-1
III-2
Current account balance
20
% of GDP
Components of current account
% of exports
40
10
20
0
0
-10
-20
-20
-40
-30
-60
-40
-80
-50
‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
% of GDP (left)
‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
-160
-100
Excl. DMBs undergoing winding-up proceedings (left)
B.kr.
‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Goods account balance
Service account balance
% of total exports of goods and services (right)
Current account balance excluding DMBs undergoing winding-up proceedings is
also adjusted for the failed DMBs' financial intermediation services indirectly.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Income account balance
(DMBs in winding-up
proceedings)
Income account
balance (other)
Net current transfers are included in primary income. Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
8
III Foreign trade and external economic conditions
III-4
III-3
Net returns on foreign direct investment
Net foreign interest payments
0
% of GDP
% of GDP
15
10
-5
5
-10
0
-5
-15
-10
-20
-15
-20
-25
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2014
IDMBs in winding-up proceedings
Other
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Energyintensive
industry
DMBs in winding-up proceedings
Pharmaceuticals
Other
Net returns on foreign direct investment
Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
III-6
III-5
Merchandise imports and exports at
constant exchange rates
Merchandise trade balance as percentage
of merchandise exports
%
80
30
20
60
10
40
0
12-month % change
20
-10
-20
0
-30
-20
-40
-50
-40
-60
-60
-70 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
Exports, 12-month moving average
Imports, 12-month moving average
Excluding ships and aircraft
Total
‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
12-month moving averages. Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
III-8
III-7
Components of merchandise imports
Components of merchandise exports
70
B.kr.
80
60
70
50
60
B.kr.
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
0
Exports, 3-month moving average
Imports, 3-month moving average
10
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06 ‘07
‘08
Marine and agricultural products
Ships, aircraft and other products
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13
0
‘14
Manufacturing products
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06 ‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13
‘14
Capital goods
Industrial supplies
Consumer goods
Fuel, lubricants and other products
Transport equipment
Merchandise export values at constant exchange rates based on monthly
average export-weighted exchange rate index (broad trade basket).
Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Merchandise import values at constant exchange rates based on
import-weighted exchange rate index (broad trade basket). Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
9
III Foreign trade and external economic conditions
III-9
III-10
Volume changes on main export products
100
Volume changes on main import products
Percentage change from same quarter of previous year
80
80
60
60
40
20
40
0
20
-20
0
-40
-20
-40
Percentage change from same quarter of previous year
-60
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
Marine products
‘08
‘09
Metals
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
-80
‘14
‘03
Other manufacturing products
‘04
‘05
Consumer goods
Industrial supplies
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
Capital goods (including ships and aircraft)
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
III-11
III-12
Volume changes on imported consumer goods
60
‘06
Merchandise exports
Percentage change from same quarter of previous year
60
40
B.kr.
50
20
40
0
-20
30
-40
20
-60
-80
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
Durable consumer goods
Semi-durable consumer goods
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
10
‘14
30
400
25
300
20
200
15
100
10
‘99
Marine prod.
‘01
‘03
‘05
‘07
Aluminium and ferrosilicon
‘09
‘11
‘03
‘05
‘07
‘09
‘11
‘13
‘15
Seasonally adjusted merchandise imports
January 2000 = 100
‘97
‘01
Excluding ships and aircraft
III-14
Merchandise exports by category
‘95
‘99
Exported merchandise value calculated as a 3-month moving average at
constant exchange rates based on export-weighted exchange rate index
(broad trade basket). Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
III-13
0
‘97
Total
Non-durable consumer goods are disposable items such as tobacco and
pharmaceuticals. Semi-durables are products that are neither disposable nor
durable, such as clothing. Consumer durables are products with a long
life-time, such as household appliances. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
500
‘95
Non-durable consumer goods
‘13
5
‘15
Other industrial prod.
B.kr.
‘95
‘97
Total
‘99
‘01
‘03
‘05
‘07
‘09
‘11
‘13
Excluding ships and aircraft
Imported merchandise value calculated as a 3-month moving average at
constant exchange rates based on export-weighted exchange rate index
(broad trade basket). The index of foreign price levels is calculated by
weighting together the consumer price indices in main trading partner
countries using a currency basket. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Exported merchandise value calculated as a 3-month moving average at
constant exchange rates based on export-weighted exchange rate index
(broad trade basket). Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
10
‘15
III Foreign trade and external economic conditions
III-15
III-16
Merchandise trade
Services balance
January - December
% price change on a year earlier
6
4
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
8
2
4
0
0
-2
-4
-4
-8
-6
-8
% volume change on a year earlier
12
General Imported Marine General
imports consum. exports exports
2012
2013
-12
Year-on-year change (%)
‘96
General Imported Marine General
imports consum. exports exports
2014
2012
2013
‘98
‘00
‘02
2014
‘04
‘06
‘08
III-17
Foreign trade and external economic conditions
January
January-February
Index, 2004=100
400
Thous.tonnes
25
120
350
110
300
Crusta20
ceans
100
250
15
Pelagic
species
200
90
150
80
100
70
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‘15
Other
Meal
& oils
Salted
10
Frozen
5
2013
2014
0
Fresh
2013
2014
2015
III-20
Aluminium production
Export prices
January 1999 = 100
USD/tonne
‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
3.600
3.400
3.200
3.000
2.800
2.600
2.400
2.200
2.000
1.800
1.600
1.400
1.200
90
Total marine products (left)
Thous. tonnes
900
800
70
700
60
600
50
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
Annual production (right)
Demersal species (left)
Thous. tonnes
80
0
Latest: 20 March
Aluminium (right)
2015
Cumulative catch volume from beginning of year. Cumulative value of
marine exports from beginning of year; nominal fob value. Monthly data.
Sources: Directorate of Fisheries, Statistics Iceland.
III-19
90
B.kr.
50
3 month average at constant price levels. Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
150
144
138
132
126
120
114
108
102
96
‘14
III-18
Fish catch volume
60
‘12
Quarterly data at constant exchange rates.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
General imports are total imports excluding ships, aircraft, and sundry items
(residual). General exports are total exports excluding ships, aircraft, and sundry
items (residual). Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
130
‘10
Services imports
Services exports
0
Monthly production (left)
Annual alumnium production for 2015 is production in January-February. Monthly
data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Foreign currency prices of marine products are calculated by dividing marine
products prices in Icelandic krónur by the export-weighted trade basket. LME
aluminium prices are in US dollars. Monthly averages plus most recent
aluminium prices.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, London Metal Exchange, Central Bank of Iceland.
11
III Foreign trade and external economic conditions
III-22
III-21
Global crude oil and gasoline prices
Global crude oil and gasoline prices
USD/tonne
USD/barrel
Foreward
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
‘03
‘04
‘05 ‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
Crude oil Europe (DTD Brent) (right)
‘11
‘12
1,300
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
900
110
700
90
500
70
300
50
2008
2009
2012
2013
30
2014
Latest: 20 March
Gasoline (left)
III-24
2005 = 100
Global commodity prices and Icelandic export prices
Latest: 9 March
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
‘03
‘04
‘05
Food (in USD)
Food (in EUR)
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
January 2000 = 100
‘02 ‘03
Commodities, total (in USD)
Commodities, total (in EUR)
‘04 ‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Latest: 20 March
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Total marine products (right)
Monthly data.
Sources: London Metal Exchange, Macrobond, Statistics Iceland.
III-26
III-25
Real exchange rate
Real exchange rate
2000 = 100
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
‘86 ‘88 ‘90
January 2000 = 100
Commodities, total (in USD) (left)
Aluminium (left)
Weekly data.
Source: Macrobond.
50
2011
Weekly data.
Source: Bloomberg.
Commodity prices in international markets
140
2010
Crude oil (Brent) (right)
III-23
‘02
150
130
Monthly averages, most recent daily prices, and forward prices 12 months
ahead in US dollars.
Sources: Bloomberg, Nymex.
60
USD/barrel
1,100
100
‘13 ‘14 ‘15
Latest: 20 March.
Gasoline NW Europe 95 (left)
USD/tonne
‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98
Relative unit labour costs
‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06
‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14
January 2000 = 100
‘95
‘97
‘99
‘01
‘03
‘05
Monthly data relative to consumer prices.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Relative consumer prices
Quarterly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
12
‘07
‘09
‘11
‘13
‘15
IV Labour market and wages
IV-2
IV-1
Unemployment rate
Unemployment
10
% of labour force
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
Unemployment
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
% af labour force
‘91 ‘95
‘00
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Unemployment, labour market survey
Seasonally adjusted unemployment
Unempolyment, labour market survey, excl. those who have been hired
and will begin work whithin 3 months
Registered unemployment is the average number of individuals registered with
employment agencies nationwide as a percentage of the estimated number of
persons in the labour market in each month. Monthly data.
Sources: Directorate of Labour, Central Bank of Iceland.
Unemployment, labour market survey, those who have already got a job
Unemployment, Directorate of Labour
Until 2003, the Statistics Iceland labour market survey included only one week
in April and one week in November; however, since January 2003, it has been
continuous and the results published quarterly. As a result, figures from January
2003 and thereafter are not entirely comparable with earlier figures. Quarterly
data.
Sources: Directorate of Labour, Statistics Iceland.
IV-3
IV-4
Unemployment by duration
18
Number of unemployed and total labour force
Number at end of month (thous.)
Number (thous.)
Number (thous.)
16
200
14
190
12
180
10
170
8
8
160
6
6
150
4
4
140
2
2
130
0
0
16
14
12
10
2008
2009
2010
2001
Longer than 1 year
3 - 6 months
2012
2013
9 months - 1 year
2014
2015
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
1
‘07
Total labour force (right)
6 - 9 months
0 - 3 months
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
120
Number of unemployed (left)
Registered unemployment is the average number of individuals registered with
employment agencies nationwide as a percentage of the estimated number of
persons in the labour market in each month. 1. Directorate of Labour estimate.
Monthly data.
Source: Directorate of Labour.
Monthly data.
Source: Directorate of labour.
IV-6
IV-5
Labour participation rate and employment rate
Unemployment register: Inflows and outflows
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
‘02
Number
86
% of labour force
84
82
80
78
76
74
‘00 ‘01
Inflows
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
72
‘ 11 ‘12 ‘13
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Labour participation rate, seasonally adjusted
Outflows
Employment rate, seasonally adjusted
Monthly data.
Source: Directorate of Labour.
Quarterly data.
Source: Registers Iceland.
13
Labour participation rate
Employment rate
IV Labour market and wages
IV-8
IV-7
Changes in employment and hours worked
Employed persons and number of persons at work
Year-on-year change (%)
Number (thousand)
8
190
6
180
4
170
2
160
0
150
-2
140
-4
130
-6
120
-8
110
-10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year-on-year change (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in number employed (left)
Change in number at work (left)
Number of employed (right)
Number at work (right)
Total hours worked
Average hours worked
Employed persons are those who worked at least one hour during the reference
week or were absent from work that they were hired to carry out. Persons at
work are those who worked one hour or more during the reference week.
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Quarterly data based on monthly data averages.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
IV-10
IV-9
Companies planning to change
staffing levels during the next 6 months
Changes in labour force
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Year-on-year change (%)
50
Share of companies (%)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Regional
Iceland
Specialised
services
Greater
Reykjavík area
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Finance and
insurance
Age 55-74
Construction
Age 25-54
Communications
Age 16-24
Fisheries
Total hours worked
Wholesale
and retail
-30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manufacturing
-20
All businesses
-8
-10
-12
-14
Number of persons at work
Companies planning to recruit, December 2014
Companies planning to recruit, March 2015
Companies planning redundancies, December 2014
Companies planning redundancies, March 2015
Data based on Capacent Gallup's survey of the 400 largest companies in Iceland.
Source: Capacent Gallup.
IV-11
IV-12
Vacancies and foreign labour
1,800
Migration
Number
2.0
1,600
1.5
1,400
1.0
1,200
0.5
1,000
0.0
800
-0.5
600
-1.0
400
-1.5
200
0
% of population
-2.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ´15
Recruitment by temporary
Registered recruitment from E-8
employment agencies
Vacancies
New temporary permits for new jobs, extensions and existing E-8 workers
‘86 ‘89 ‘92 ‘95 ‘98 ‘01 ‘04 ‘07 ‘10 ‘13
‘10
‘11
‘12
'13
Net migration, Icelandic nationals
Net migration, foreign nationals
Total net migration
Annual numbers for the period 1986-2014 and quarterly numbers since
Q1/2010.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
3-month moving average. The E-8 countries are Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, and Hungary. Monthly data.
Source: Directorate of Labour.
14
14
'14
IV Labour market and wages
IV-13
IV-14
Nominal and real wages
15
12-month % change
Wage changes by sector
Change between months (%)
%
4.5
10
3.0
5
1.5
0
0.0
-5
-1.5
-10
-3.0
16
14
12
10
8
‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Wage index (left)
Wage index (right)
6
4
2
0
-2
Real wages (wage index deflated by CPI) (left)
Public sector (annual changes)
Private sector (quarterly changes)
Real wages are the wage index deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.
Source: Registers Iceland.
IV-16
Private sector wage index by sector
Private sector wage index by occupational group
Year-on-year change (%)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Wholesale, retail and repair
Financial intermediation
Sectors are defined according to ÍSAT 95 classification system. ÍSAT 95 is a
classification system based on the sector classification system of the
European Union. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Occupational groups are defined according to ÍSTARF 95 classification system.
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
IV-17
Private sector labour cost index by sector
Year-on-year change (%)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Year-on-year change (%)
Professionals
Technicians and semi-professionals
Management
Crafts
Services, retail and marketing
Clerks
General and skilled workers
Construction
Manufacturing
Transport, storage and communication
16
Private sector (annual changes)
Public sector (quarterly changes)
Until 2006, private sector wages, on the one hand, and public sector and
banking sector wages, on the other, are components of the wage index;
however, from 2006 onwards, the banking sector is included in private sector
wages. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
IV-15
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Construction
Manufacturing
Transport, storage and communication
2011
2012
2013
Wholesale, retail and repair
Total labour cost excluding irregular bonuses per hour. Sectors are defined
according to ÍSAT 95 classification system. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
15
15
V Public finances
V-2
V-1
Public sector revenues, expenditures and balance
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Year-on-year change (%)
120.2
% of GDP
-47.4
2005
2006
-55.0
2007 2008
Revenues (left)
2009
2010
Expenditures (left)
-21.7
2011 2012
2013
2014
Treasury revenues, expenditures and balance
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
156.6
2005
Balance (right)
2006
-52.7
2007 2008
Revenues (left)
Real changes in revenues and spending relative to CPI. Balance shown as a
percentage of GDP aggregated over last 4 quarters. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
-55.3
2009
2010
Expenditures (left)
-20.7
2011 2012
% of GDP
8
33.1
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
2013 2014
Balance (right)
Real changes in revenues and spending relative to CPI. Balance shown as a
percentage of GDP averaged over last 4 quarters. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
V-3
V-4
Local government revenues, expenditures and balance
20
Year-on-year change (%)
Year-on-year change (%)
% of GDP
Local government revenues and expenditures
12-month change (%)
12-month change (%)
2.0
20
15
1.5
15
60
10
1.0
5
0.5
10
40
0
0.0
5
20
0
0
80
-5
-0.5
-10
-1.0
-5
-20
-15
-1.5
-10
-40
-20
-2.0
-15
2005
2006
2007 2008
Revenues (left)
2009
2010
Expenditures (left)
2011 2012
2013 2014
2005
2006
2009
Municipal income tax (left)
Investment (right)
Balance (right)
2010
V-5
V-6
% of GDP
% of GDP
2014
% of GDP
0.66
0.62
0.58
6
0.54
5
0.50
4
0.46
3
0.42
2
0.38
1
0.34
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Treasury (left)
2013
Debt of treasury and local
government vs. financial institutions
7
Public sector (left)
2011 2012
Wages and purchases (left)
In real terms, deflated by CPI. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
8
0
2008
Real changes in revenues and spending relative to CPI. Balance shown as a
percentage of GDP averaged over last 4 quarters. Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
Public sector interest expense
9
2007
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
0.30
Municipalities (right)
Quarterly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14
General government gross debt
General government net debt
Central government gross debt
Central government net debt
Local government gross debt
Local government net debt
Excluding civil service pension liabilities and equity holdings. Debt on
transaction accounts netted out of assets. Annual data.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Iceland.
16
16
-60
V Public finances
V-7
V-8
Treasury debt
Treasury balance and net credit balance
% of GDP
100
100
% of revenues
50
80
0
-50
60
-100
40
-150
-200
20
-250
0
-300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Securities
Domestic loans
‘03
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
Credit balance
4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. Revenues from assets sales
included. Credit balance peaked at -276% of revenues in December 2008 and
revenue balance peaked at -138% of revenues in December 2008. Monthly
data.
Sources: State Accounting Office, Central Bank of Iceland.
V-9
V-10
Regular revenues excluding asset sales,
regular expenditure excluding interest
Tax revenues
12-month % change
12-month % change
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
Revenues excluding asset sales
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
-50
‘14 ‘15
‘02
Expenditures excluding interest
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
Payroll and personal income tax
Taxes on imports
4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.
Sources: State Accounting Office, Central Bank of Iceland.
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
Value-added tax
4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.
Sources: State Accounting Office, Central Bank of Iceland.
V-11
V-12
Treasury expenditures by type
Treasury expenditures by function
12-month % change
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
‘04
Revenue balance
Contractual loans and issued securities only, excluding accounts payable and
pension obligations. Latest GDP is forecast. Monthly data.
Sources: State Accounting Office, Statistics Iceland.
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
‘02
Foreign loans
50
12-month % change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
Public consumption
‘06
‘07
‘08
Transfers
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
-40
‘14 ‘15
Investment and maintenance
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
General services and public order
4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. For December 2008, irregular
expenditures totalling 192 b.kr. due to the banks' collapse are not shown.
Monthly data.
Sources: State Accounting Office, Central Bank of Iceland.
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12
Social affairs
4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.
Sources: State Accounting Office, Central Bank of Iceland.
17
‘13
‘14 ‘15
Economic affaris
VI Asset markets
VI-1
VI-2
Housing market prices
and turnover in greater Reykjavík
Housing market prices in greater Reykjavík
12-month % change
Number
1,200
50
450
1,050
40
400
900
30
350
750
20
300
600
10
450
0
300
-10
150
-20
0 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
January 1994 = 100
250
200
150
100
-30
‘02 ‘03
Turnover on housing market- seasonally adjusted (left)
House prices (right)
Real house prices (right)
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
Price in real terms
VI-4
Market price of residential housing
House prices in greater Reykjavík
%-change between months
12-month % change
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0
0
-2
-5
-4
-10
-6
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
Condominium housing - seasonally adjusted (left)
Detached housing- seasonally adjusted (left)
Condominium housing (right)
Detached housing (right)
12-month % change
March 2000 = 100
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
‘13 ‘14 ‘15
Monthly data.
Source: Statistics Iceland.
VI-5
VI-6
Rent price index in greater Reykjavík
2011
Rent, house prices and paid rent in real terms
Change between months (%)
January 2011 = 100
2012
Change between months (right)
2013
2014
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Regional Iceland (left)
Entire country (left)
Entire country in real terms (right)
Regional Iceland in real terms (right)
Monthly data.
Sources: Registers Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
‘06
Nominal price
VI-3
-8
‘05
Price per sq.m. (immediate payment). 3-month average. Monthly data.
Sources: Registers Iceland, Statistics Iceland.
Turnover is based on the number of purchase agreements on the date of
purchase. Monthly data.
Sources: Registers Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
8
‘04
2015
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
160
Index, January 2011 = 100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Rent price index (left)
2008
2009
Paid rent
Monthly data.
Source: Registers Iceland.
2010
Rent
2011
2012
2013
2014
House prices
Rent and house price are for greater Reykjavík, paid rent is for the whole
country. Monthly data.
Sources: Registers Iceland, Statistics Iceland.
18
‘15
VI Asset markets
VI-7
VI-8
Advertised property and average time to sale
6,000
No.
No. of properties for sale/turnover
B.kr.
60
20
5,000
50
15
4,000
40
3,000
30
0
2,000
20
-5
1,000
10
0
‘06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
‘15
New DMB mortgage lending to
households and prepayments of older loans
New lengind
10
5
-10
-15
0
Prepayments
-20
2013
Latest: 20 March
Non-indexed
Multi-family buildings/flats (left)
All properties (left)
Houses/row houses/duplexes (left)
Average time-to-sale (right)
2014
Indexed
2015
Foreign-denominated lending
Net new lending
Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Monthly average of advertisements on Morgunbladid real estate website The
count is carried out by property code so as to avoid a repeat count of the same
property. Monthly turnover is according to the number of officially registered
purchase agreements. The average time to sale is the length of time (in months)
that it takes to sell advertised property divided by the turnover for the month in
question.
Sources: Morgunbladid Real Estate Website (mbl.is), Registers Iceland.
VI-9
Residential housing owned by
financial institutions nationwide
4,000
No. of flats
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1000
500
0
2011
Leased out
In processing
2012
2013
Under construction
2014
Finished but not leased out
Classified by status. The financial institutions are: Arion Bank, Hilda, Hömlur,
Íslandsbanki, Housing Financing Fund, Klettur, Landey, MP Bank, and KM.
Quarterly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VI-11
VI-10
Turnover of commercial properties
Commercial property real prices in greater Reykjavík
350
1995 = 100
Year-on-year change (%)
300
50
320
40
290
30
260
20
200
230
10
150
200
0
170
-10
100
140
-20
50
110
-30
80
‘95
‘97
‘99
‘01
‘03
‘05
‘07
Percentage change between years (right)
Simple average of sale contracts (left)
‘09
‘11
‘13
‘15
Number of registered sales agreements
250
0
-40
‘95
‘97
‘99
‘01
‘03
Retail property and offices
‘05
‘07
‘09
‘11
‘13
Industrial, warehouses and other properties
Before June 2006 turnover is based on purchase day, otherwise on day of
registered sales agreement. Quarterly data.
Sources: Registers Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Weighted average of industrial, retail, and office housing. Data are subject to
uncertainty due to sparsity and divergence of measurements. Latest data is
preliminary. Quarterly data.
Sources: Registers Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
19
VI Asset markets
VI-13
VI-12
Bond indices
Equity market
9,000
31 Dec. 1997 = 1,000
B.kr.
8,000
480
7,000
420
6,000
360
5,000
300
4,000
240
3,000
180
2,000
120
1,000
60
0
‘02
‘03 ‘04
‘05 ‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10 ‘11
‘12 ‘13
‘14
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
540
0
Latest: 20 March
‘03
‘04
‘05
Latest: 20 March
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
Indexed, 10-years
Nominal, 5-years
Indexed, 5-years
Nominal, 3-months
OMXI-MAIN (left)
OMXI15 (left)
Total turnover (right)
OMXI6 (left)
2 January 1998 = 100
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
Nominal, 1-year
Indices are the Nasdaq OMX Iceland’s calculations of yields on fixed-maturity
bonds. Daily data.
Source: Nasdaq OMX Iceland.
Total monthly volume of listed shares and monthly average of main stock
indices.
Source: Nasdaq OMX Iceland.
VII Financial markets
VII-2
VII-1
DMB lending to households
DMB lending to businesses
60
12-month change (%)
120
100
40
80
20
60
0
40
-20
20
0
-40
-20
-60
-80
12-month change (%)
-40
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
Indexed bonds
Non-indexed bonds
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
-60
‘13 ‘14 ‘15
‘02
Foreign currency-linked bonds
Overdrafts
Other
‘05
‘06
Indexed bonds
Non-indexed bonds
Contribution of individual components to lending growth. The category labelled
“other” includes bills of exchange, redeemed guarantees, and asset financing
agreements. Corrected for estimated effects of price level and exchange rate
movements on CPI-indexed and exchange rate-linked loans. Loans are assessed at
book value from September 2008 but at claim value before that time. A portion of
loans remained with the resolution committees of the old banks. Loans that were
transferred to special purpose entities are excluded. The data are therefore not fully
comparable between these periods. Data from October 2008 are preliminary.
Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
‘07
‘08 ‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
Foreign currency-linked bonds
Overdrafts
Other
Contribution of individual components to lending growth. The category labelled
“other” includes bills of exchange, redeemed guarantees, and asset financing
agreements. Changes have been made to loan classification during the period
shown. Corrected for estimated effects of price level and exchange rate movements on CPI-indexed and exchange rate-linked loans. Loans are assessed at book
value from Sep. 2008 but at claim value before that time. A portion of loans remained
with the resolution committees of the old banks. Loans that were transferred to special
purpose entitites are excluded. The data are therefore not fully comparable between
these periods. Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-3
VII-4
New lending to companies, other than
holding companies and prepayments of older loans
200
160
120
80
40
0
-40
-80
-120
-160
-200
‘03 ‘04
New lending to households
and prepayments of older loans
B.kr.
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
New lending
Prepayments
2013
Non-indexed
Leasing contracts
2014
2015
Foreign-denominated
Indexed
Net new lending
B.kr.
New lending
Prepayments
2013
Non-indexed
Leasing contracts
Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
2014
Foreign-denominated
Indexed
Net new lending
Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
20
20
2015
VII Financial markets
VII-6
VII-5
Household deposits
Companies' deposits
12-month change (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
60
12-month change (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2005 2006
2007
2008 2009 2010
Current accounts
Sight deposits
-20
2011 2012 2013 2014 ‘15
2005 2006
2007
2008 2009 2010
Foreign currency accounts (residents)
Current accounts
Foreign currency accounts (residents)
Time deposits
Indexed deposits
2011 2012 2013 2014 ‘15
Sight deposits
Time deposits
Indexed deposits
Contribution of individual components to deposit growth. Term deposits include
money market accounts and other non-sight deposits. Indexed deposits include
pension savings, indexed vacation allowance accounts, and other indexed savings.
Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Contribution of individual components to deposit growth. Term deposits include
money market accounts and other non-sight deposits. Indexed deposits include
pension savings, indexed vacation allowance accounts, and other indexed
savings. Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-7
VII-8
Real M3 and domestic bank credit
M3 and domestic bank credit
100
12-month change (%)
900
80
800
60
700
40
600
20
500
0
400
-20
300
-40
200
-60
-80
January 2002 = 100
100
‘02
‘03
M3
Credit
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
0
‘14 ‘15
‘13
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
Debt stock excl. exchange rate adjustment and price indexation
Credit in real terms
VII-9
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14 ‘15
Credit
VII-10
Households´ loans from financial corporations
‘03
Nominal GDP and M3
Change from same quarter of previous year (%)
% of GDP
‘02
‘07
Lending and M3 at constant price levels are deflated by the CPI. Loans are
assessed at book value from September 2008 but at claim value before that time.
A portion of loans remained with the resolution committees of the old banks.
Loans that were transferred to special purpose entities are excluded. The data are
therefore not fully comparable between these periods. Data from October 2008
are preliminary. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
Corrected for estimated effects of price level and exchange rate movements on
CPI-indexed and exchange rate-linked loans. The series “real loan values” represents
loans deflated by the CPI and the exchange rate index. Corrected for entry of
Kaupthing from January 2002 onwards. Loans are assessed at book value from
September 2008 but at claim value before that time. A portion of loans remained
with the resolution committees of the old banks. Loans that were transferred to
special purpose entitites are excluded. The data are therefore not fully comparable
between these periods. Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
‘06
M3 (seasonally adjusted)
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
-24
‘13 ‘14 -28
Indexed loans (left)
Foreign currency-linked loans (left)
Leasing contracts (left)
Non-indexed loans (left)
60
Year-on-year change (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
‘01
‘02 ‘03
M3
Real change in total debt (right)
Institutions in winding-up proceedings included until Q3/2011. New banks’ loans
at book value from Q3/2008, earlier at claim value. Some loans remained with old
banks. Loans placed with special purpose entitites excluded. Hence, data are not fully
comparable between periods. Most recent figures are preliminary. GDP is seasonally
adjusted by the Central Bank. Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
21
21
‘04
‘05
‘06
Nominal GDP
‘07 ‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13 ‘14
Adjusted M3
Adjusted M3 excludes deposits held by failed banks' winding-up committees and
special purpose entities owned by commercial banks. Quarterly data.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
VII Financial markets
VII-12
VII-11
Components of money holdings
M3 and domestic bank credit
1,800
B.kr.
15
1,600
1,400
10
1,200
5
Year-on-year change (%)
1,000
800
0
600
-5
400
-10
200
0
-15
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M1
2010
M3
M2
2011
2012
2013
2014
Households
Holding companies
Companies
Money holdings (M3)
Non-bank financial institutions
Money holdings (Adjusted M3)
Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Other
Adjusted M3 excludes deposits held by failed banks' winding-up committees and
special purpose entities owned by commercial banks. Quarterly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-14
VII-13
Bond auctions
Base money (M0)
180
B.kr.
45
160
40
140
35
120
30
100
25
80
20
60
15
40
10
20
0
5
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
Notes and coin
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
0
‘14
Deposits
2012
2013
2014
‘15
Treasury and Housing Financing Fund (HFF)
VII-16
Central Bank collateral loan rate
and money market interest rates
Central Bank collateral loans and overnight loans
B.kr
B.kr.
2009
2011
Information on auctions of other issuers' marketable bonds does not necessarily
include all of their issued bonds. Monthly data.
Sources: Icelandic Securities Depository, Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-15
‘08
2010
Municipalities
Other
Categorisation of base money according to Central Bank of Iceland. Monthly
data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
B.kr.
2010
2011
Overnight loans (left)
2012
2013
Collateral loans (right)
‘15
2014
Latest: 25 March
%
Latest: 20 March
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14
600
540
480
420
360
300
240
180
120
60
0
REIBOR O/N
Collateral loan rate
Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
22
22
REIBOR 3-month
VII Financial markets
VII-18
VII-17
Central Bank of Iceland real interest rates
Central Bank of Iceland and
short-term market interest rates
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
%
Latest: 23 March
14
%
Latest: 27 March
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2009
2011
2010
2012
2013
-4 ‘02 ‘03
2014
Collateralised lending rate
Overnight CBI rates
Rates on 7-day term deposits
Max. rate on 28-day CDs
Overnight interbank rates
Rates on 1- month term deposits
CBI current account rates
‘04
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
VII-20
Short-term interest rate differential
Long-term interest rate differential
Latest: 20 March
%
12
%
Latest: 20 March
10
8
6
4
2
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
Iceland/Euro area
Iceland/Switzerland
‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
Iceland/US
Iceland/Japan
‘11 ‘12
0
‘13 ‘14
‘02
Iceland/UK
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
Iceland/Germany
Iceland/Switzerland
‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
Iceland/US
Iceland/Japan
‘11 ‘12
‘13 ‘14
Iceland/UK
Yields on non-indexed 10-year Treasury bonds are used. For Iceland, RIKB 13
0517 is used until end-February 2008, RIKB 19 0226 is used from the
beginning of March 2008 until end-October 2011, RIKB 22 1026 is used from
the beginning of November 2011 until end-December 2013, and RIKB 25
0612 is used thereafter. Weekly data.
Sources: Macrobond, Central Bank of Iceland.
3-month interbank rates. Weekly data.
Source: Macrobond.
VII-22
VII-21
Yields on indexed bonds
Yields on nominal Treasury bonds
Latest: 20 March
%
9
Latest: 20 March
%
8
14
7
12
6
10
5
8
4
6
3
4
2
2
0
‘07
According to 12-month inflation. Real interest rates according to breakeven
inflation rate on Treasury notes are calculated based on Treasury note (RIKB
13 0517) and Treasury bond (RIKS 15 1001) yields until June 2004, and on
the difference between the nominal and indexed yield curves onwards
(monthly average). Until April 2009, the Bank’s effective policy rate was the
seven-day collateralised lending rate, and from April to September 2009 it
was the current account rate. From September 2009 to May 2014, the
effective policy rate was the average of the current account rate and the
maximum rate on 28-day CDs. From May 2014, the effective rate is the
Bank's seven day term deposit rate. Monthly data.
Sources: Capacent Gallup, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-19
16
‘06
Breakeven inflation rate
Inflation
Household inflation expectations
Businesses' inflation expectations
Market inflation expectations
Daily data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
‘05
1
2008
2009
RIKB 12 0824
RIKB 16 1013
RIKB 31 0124
2010
2011
RIKB 13 0517
RIKB 19 0226
2012
2013
RIKB 14 0314
RIKB 22 1026
0
2014
RIKB 15 0408
RIKB 25 0612
‘04
‘05
‘06
HFF150914
RIKS 15 1001
‘07
‘08
HFF150224
RIKS 21 0414
Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
23
‘09
‘10
‘11
HFF150434
‘12
‘13
‘14
HFF150644
VII Financial markets
VII-23
VII-24
Risk premia on the Icelandic Treasury
18
%
Forward market interest rates
Percentage points
5.5
16
5.0
14
4.5
12
4.0
10
3.5
8
3.0
6
2.5
4
2.0
2
1.5
0
1.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 ‘15
Latest: 20 March
5-year EUR credit spread on the Republic of Iceland (left)
Difference between Icelandic and US government bonds issued in USD
maturing in 2016 (right)
Difference between Icelandic and US government bonds issued in USD
maturing in 2022 (right)
Spread between Icelandic and German government bonds issued in EUR,
maturing in 2020 (right)
7.5
%
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
2015
2016
20 March 2015
2017
21 March 2014
2018
20 February 2015
Forward interest rates calculated based on interbank market interest and
yields on Treasury notes, using the Nelson-Siegel method. The valuation is
subject to some uncertainty because of the small number of Treasury notes
underlying the calculations.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Daily data.
Source: Bloomberg.
VII-26
VII-25
Average indexed interest rates
Average nominal interest rates
25
%
12
Latest: 20 March
Latest: 20 March
%
10
20
8
15
6
10
4
2
5
0
0
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
Average interest rate on bank loans
Yield on Treasury notes (RIKB 13 0517)
Yield on Treasury notes (RIKB 19 0226)
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘02
‘14
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08 ‘09
Average interest rate on bank loans
HFF bond real yield (HFF 150224)
Average prime rate on bank loans
Central Bank collateral loans
Average prime rate
on bank loans
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
T-bond real yield (RIKS 15 1001)
T-bond real yield (RIKS 21 0414)
Due to changes in calculation methods, figures from February 2007 onwards
are not fully comparable with data from earlier periods. Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Due to changes in calculation methods, figures from February 2007 onwards
are not fully comparable with data from earlier periods. Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-28
VII-27
Interest rates on indexed housing loans
Interest rates on nominal housing loans
9.5
‘03
%
Latest: 21 March
7.0
%
Latest: 21 March
6.5
8.5
6.0
5.5
7.5
5.0
4.5
6.5
4.0
5.5
4.5
3.5
2010
Arion bank
2011
2012
Íslandsbanki
2013
2014
3.0
2015
‘04 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Íslandsbanki
Arion bank
Housing Financing Fund (HFF)
Landsbankinn hf.
Lowest floating rates for non-indexed housing loans. 10-day data. No data
for Arion bank for the time periods 11 March 2010 - 11 February 2011 and
11 May - 1 December 2013. 10-day data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Landsbankinn hf.
Lowest fixed rates for indexed housing loans. Housing Financing Fund interest
rates are indexed housing loan rates with prepayment penalty for December
2005 onwards, and without prepayment before that time. 10-day data.
Sources: Housing Financing Fund, Central Bank of Iceland.
24
VII Financial markets
VII-30
VII-29
Nominal and real effective exchange rate of the króna
Bank lending and deposit rates
12
Latest: 20 March
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05 ‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12
‘02
‘13 ‘14
3 January 2000 = 100
ISK/EUR, ISK/USD, ISK/GBP
250
200
230
230
200
210
210
180
190
190
160
170
170
140
150
150
120
130
130
100
110
110
90
90
80
70
70
50
50
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13 ‘14
Latest: 20 March
Real exchange rate (left)
‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07
‘08 ‘09 ‘10
‘11
‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
Latest: 23 March
1 Jan. 2004 = 100
60
40
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07 ‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
Latest: 23 March
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
South African rand (ZAR)
Icelandic króna (ISK)
Brazilian real (BRL)
Turkish lira (TRY)
Daily data.
Source: Macrobond.
Daily data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-34
VII-33
Central Bank intervention in foreign exchange market
FX-market turnover
Latest: 23 March
M.kr.
30
27.-30.12.2010: 24.834 m.kr.
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2010
‘07
ISK/EUR, ZAR/EUR, TRY/EUR, NZD/EUR, BRL/EUR
EUR (left)
GBP (left)
USD (left)
Average exchange rate - narrow TWI (right)
0
‘06
Exchange rate of the euro against high-yielding currencies
Exchange rate of foreign currencies against the króna
16,000
‘05
VII-32
VII-31
‘03
‘04
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
Due to changes in calculation methods, figures from February 2007 onwards
are not fully comparable with data from earlier periods. Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
‘02
‘03
Average exchange rate - broad TWI (erverse right)
Average indexed lending rates
Spread between indexed lending and deposit rates
Average indexed deposit rates (at 5 yrs.)
250
January 2000 = 100
3 January 2000 = 100
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
2011
Central Bank of Iceland
2012
2013
2014
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FX purchase, spot market (left)
FX sale, spot market (left)
Net accumulated purchase including forward contracts (right)
Other
Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland
Monthly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
25
300
25
-5
2015
B.kr.
B.kr.
-50
VII Financial markets
VII-35
VII-36
Non-residents' króna assets
700
Non-residents' repatriation of domestic interest payments
B.kr.
6
600
5
500
4
400
3
300
200
2
100
1
0
B.kr.
‘08
2009
HFF
2010
2011
2012
Treasury bonds and bills
2013
2014
0
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
The figures above are based on information provided to the Central Bank by
domestic financial institutions, on non-residents’ foreign exchange transactions
involving payments of interest and indexation on deposits with domestic financial
institutions and ISK-denominated bonds issued by domestic parties. In comparing the
amounts, it should be borne in mind that regulatory provisions on foreign exchange
transactions involving interest payments have changed between periods. The Central
Bank considers data from the years 2009 and 2010 not reliable enough for official
publication. The data imply, however, that foreign exchange transactions resulting
from non-residents’ interest payments have been on the decline between these
periods. Quarterly data.
Deposits
Monthly data.
Sources: Icelandic Securities Depository, Central Bank of Iceland.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
VII-37
VII-38
Turnover on the interbank market for krónur
80
Bond market turnover
Latest: 23 March
B.kr.
160
70
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
B.kr.
2009
Latest: 24 March
2010
2011
Weekly data.
Source: Nasdaq OMX Iceland.
Weekly data.
Source: Central Bank of Iceland.
26
2012
2013
2014
2015