City of Thunder Bay
Proposed Event and Convention Centre Public Opinion Survey
Final Report – September 2014
Table of Contents
Survey Objectives
3
Survey Methodology
4
Reporting Conventions
5
Detailed Survey Results
6
-- Awareness of Proposed Event Centre
8
-- Current Support/Opposition to Proposed Event Centre
9
-- Concerns and Attitudes Towards Proposed Event Centre
12
-- Acceptability of a Property Tax Increase
16
-- Understanding the Issues that Impact Support or Opposition
17
-- Reaction to Additional Facts about the Proposed Event Centre
19
-- Support for Event Centre Assuming a 1% Property Tax Increase
21
Summary of Findings
23
Appendix A: Ward Profile
27
Appendix B: Spectator Events and Demographic Profile
30
Appendix C: Questionnaire
33
Ipsos Contact Information
41
2
Survey Objectives
Ipsos Reid is pleased to present the City of Thunder Bay with the results of the statistically
valid public opinion survey regarding the proposed event and convention centre (event
centre).
The survey is intended to:
 Gauge unaided and aided awareness of the proposed event centre project and
process;
 Measure levels of support and opposition to the proposed event centre based on the
public’s current understanding of the project and when provided with more
information about the project;
 Identify the issues that are important to whether residents support or oppose the
proposal;
 Seek residents’ concerns about the proposed event centre;
 Gauge expectations for potential property tax increase and affordability levels; and
 Understand patterns of participation in spectator events.
3
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted by telephone between May 8 and 22, 2014 among a random
and representative sample of 1,000 City of Thunder Bay residents aged 18 or older.
The sampling method was designed to complete interviews within households randomly
selected across the City (RDD method). A total of 150 interviews were targeted to cell
phone only households.
Sample quotas were set for ward, age, and gender. Further, the data has been statistically
weighted to ensure the sample’s age and gender composition reflects that of the actual
population of the City of Thunder Bay according to the 2011 Statistics Canada Census.
A sample of 1,000 interviews produces results which can be considered accurate within
± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for subgroups of the data.
In this report, results are expressed as percentages unless otherwise noted. Results may
not add to 100% due to rounding or multiple responses.
4
Reporting Conventions
Statistically Significant Differences
Statistically significant differences between sub-groups are identified by letter.
A percentage that has a letter beside it indicates that this percentage is significantly higher
than the percentage in the specific letter column.
In the example below, Thunder Bay residents over the age of 35 are more likely to be aware
of the proposed event centre (96% aware among 35 – 54 year olds and 97% among those
55+) compared to residents between the ages of 18 and 34 (74%). Similarly, residents who
own their home are significantly more likely to be aware of the event centre (94%)
compared to those who are renting (78%).
Age
% Aware
Rent/Own Home
18-34
35-54
55+
Rent
Own
C
D
E
U
V
74%
96%C
97%C
78%
94%U
5
Detailed Results
6
Most Important Issues Facing the City Today (Total Top Mentions)
On an unaided, or unprompted basis, only 13% name the proposed event and convention centre as one of the most
important issues currently facing the City today. Roads (34%), taxes/budget (26%),infrastructure renewal (24%) and
jobs (16%) are the most important issues currently facing the City of Thunder Bay, when asked unaided.
Residents over the age of 55 are significantly more likely to indicate that the proposed event centre is an important
issue compared to those 18-34. Similarly, higher income residents and those who often attend sporting events in
Thunder Bay, are significantly more likely to perceive the event centre as an important issue.
Roads
34%
Taxes/Budget
26%
Infrastructure Renewal
24%
Jobs
Proposed Event & Convention Centre
16%
2013 Citizen Satisfaction Study
13%
Economic Development
9%
Police/Crime/Public Safety
9%
Transportation
23%
Economy
Recreation Services
5%
Waterfront Revitalization
5%
Environment
5%
Healthcare
5%
Poverty and Homelessness
5%
Downtown Revitalization
4%
Crime
Taxation/ Municipal Gov't Spending
Social Issues
Infrastucture Renewal
Community Revitalization
21%
17%
15%
13%
11%
9%
*Responses less than 4% are not shown.
Q1. To begin, in your view what are the most important issues facing the City today? That is, what issues should receive the greatest attention from City
Council? Base: All respondents (n=1000)
7
Awareness of Proposed Event and Convention Centre
Nine-in-ten (91%) residents are aware of the planning for a new event and convention centre (residents over 35
and those who own their home are more likely to be aware of the project). The most common topics residents have
heard about the proposed centre are the location, issues or concerns about costs, parking, that there is
opposition/controversy, notions of acquiring a hockey team and that the project is in the planning stages.
Aware of Event Centre
9%
Heard About Event Centre
Yes
No
91%
Location (NET)
Location
Waterfront/ marina location
Downtown (location)
Financial/ Revenue (NET)
Issues/ concerns regarding cost
Issues/ concerns regarding funding
Parking issues/ lack of parking
Debate/ controversy/ opposition
Acquiring hockey team(s)
In planning/ proposal stages
(Multipurpose) Event centre
Media (NET)
Uneccessary/ bad idea
Project/ plan is in motion/…
(Larger) Size of facility/ seating…
Don't know
52%
34%
10%
9%
29%
19%
7%
10%
9%
7%
7%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
9%
Location
(NET)
Financial
(NET)
Q2. Are you aware that the City is planning for the development of a new event and convention centre which will be a regional facility for sport tourism, conventions
and other major events? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Q3. What specifically, have you heard about the proposal for the event and convention centre? Anything else?
Base: Aware of the proposed centre (n=909)
8
Current Support/Opposition to Proposed Event Centre
A majority of those aware of the project support the proposed event centre (61%) - either strongly (31%) or
somewhat (30%). The 33% who oppose the propose event centre is comprised of 11% who are somewhat
opposed and 22% who are strongly opposed. Residents 18-54 are significantly more likely to agree compared
to those over the age of 55. Similarly, higher income residents are more likely to support the proposed event
centre.
Among the 9% of residents who are unaware of the proposed event centre, 61% support, but fewer oppose
(24%) and more don’t know and are unsure until they hear more details (16%).
Strongly support
Strongly oppose
Support among
those aware
Support among
those unaware
Somewhat support
Depends (on details)
31%
23%
30%
38%
Somewhat oppose
Don't know / refused
11%
7%
22%
17%
Strongly &
Somewhat Support
4%
8% 8%
61%
61%
*Values less than 3% not labeled.
Q4. Based on what you currently know, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the development of the proposed event and
convention centre? Base: Aware of the proposed event centre (n=909) Base: Unaware (n=91).
9
Reason for Support/Opposition to Proposed Event Centre
Residents support the proposal because the City needs a new/bigger/better facility, the growth and development
and because of the sporting events and entertainment the facility will host. Residents oppose the proposal because
they believe the City cannot afford it, it is the wrong location, they believe it is not a priority, it is a waste of money,
because it will increase taxes, and not enough parking.
Why Support
Why Oppose
Needs new/ bigger/ better facility
27%
Growth (Net)
26%
Growth/ development of the city
14%
Economic growth/ progress
6%
Creates/ generates jobs/ employment
5%
Brings/ creates businesses
4%
Brings (sport) events/ entertainment
22%
Good for everyone/ community/city
18%
Promotes tourism/ tourist attraction
17%
Generates (tax) money/ revenue
9%
Good for youth
6%
Don't know
7%
34%
City can't afford it
Under the
theme of
growth.
Wrong/ bad location
25%
Not Necessary/Priority
22%
Waste/ better use of
money
15%
Increase/ tax burden
14%
No/ not enough
parking
10%
Other negative
mentions
6%
Don't know
6%
Mentions less than 6% not displayed.
Q5. Why do you ‘support the proposed event and convention centre’ / ‘oppose the proposed event and convention centre’/‘say your support or opposition
for the proposed event and convention centre depends’? Base sizes vary
10
Do Those Opposed, Oppose The Current Proposal or Any Event Centre
Among the 33% of residents who oppose the proposed event/convention centre, reasons for opposition are
split. Four-in-ten (41%) of those who currently oppose the proposed event centre, oppose the current
proposal, but support the development of a new event centre. On the other hand, half (49%) of residents who
oppose the current proposal, oppose the development of any new event/convention centre.
There are no significant socio-demographic differences between the two positions towards the event centre.
I oppose the current proposal, but
support the development of a new
event and convention centre.
41%
I oppose the development of a new
event and convention centre of any
kind.
Don't know
49%
10%
Q6.Which of the following is closest to your view? Base: Strongly/somewhat oppose the development of the proposed event and convention centre (n=300)
11
Concerns about the Proposed Event Centre (Total Mentions)
Top concerns about the proposed event centre include parking issues (30%), location (29%), and uncertain costs
(28%). Other concerns include property tax increases (23%), traffic congestion (13%), lack of government
funding (10%), proper utilization/attendance (4%) and competition (4%). Residents without children at home,
those aware of the project and those over the age of 34 are significantly more likely to perceive parking as an
issue.
Parking issues
30%
Location of site
29%
Uncertain costs
28%
Property tax increase
23%
Traffic congestion
13%
Lack of Federal/Provincial funding
10%
Proper utilization/ attendance/ attraction concerns of event centre
4%
Competition
4%
None
Don't know / refused
15%
3%
Mentions less than 4% not displayed.
Q11. What concerns, if any, do you have about the proposed event centre? Base: All respondents (n=1,000)
12
Attitudes Towards Event Centre
Most residents (78%) agree that the new event centre will increase the number sporting and entertainment
events held in the city. They also expect property taxes will increase. Most feel the event centre should only
happen with funding from other levels of government and the private sector. Nearly as many feel the new
centre will create new jobs in the city. Fully seven out of ten residents are concerned the new centre will not
have enough parking (48% strongly).
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Don’t know
Strongly/
Somewhat agree
A new event centre will increase the number of sporting
and entertainment events that are held in the city.
44%
35%
A new event centre will increase the property taxes for
residents.
44%
35%
9% 5% 8%
78%
A new event centre should only happen with funding
from other levels of government and the private sector.
45%
33%
11%
7% 4%
78%
10%
75%
A new event centre will create a number of new jobs in
the city.
33%
I am concerned the new event centre will not have
enough parking.
10%
42%
48%
22%
10% 3%
13%
11%
12%
7%
78%
70%
A new event centre will increase tourism in the city.
34%
35%
13%
16%
3%
69%
A new event centre will result in economic growth in the
city.
32%
37%
14%
14%
4%
68%
A new event centre might be expensive but it's worth it
in the long run.
34%
32%
5%
66%
10%
20%
Q8. Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following? Whenever I say ‘event centre’ I am
referring to the proposed event and convention centre. Base: All respondents (n=1000)
13
Attitudes Towards Event Centre (Con’t)
A majority of Thunder Bay residents are concerned about the potential for traffic congestion problems (66%) and
that the event centre will be costly to operate (57%). Just over half of residents believe the event centre will help
retain youth in Thunder Bay (55%). Half of residents trust the City to make decisions about the proposed event
centre (55%) and believe the City has done a good job of consulting with the public (50%). Six-in-ten (61%)
disagree that the current facilities are adequate and that a new event centre is not needed. Only three-in-ten
agree that the new event centre will negatively impact the operations of the community auditorium or banquet
halls.
Strongly/
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
The amount of traffic a new event centre will generate
will create congestion problems in the downtown.
Strongly disagree
41%
A new event centre will cost the city too much money to
build and operate.
26%
33%
23%
32%
I trust the City Council to make decisions about the
proposed event centre in the best interests of residents.
23%
32%
The city has done a good job of consulting with the
public on the proposed event centre.
18%
A new event centre will negatively impact the operation
of the community auditorium.
17%
Thunder Bay does not need a new event centre,
because the current facilities are adequate.
16%
A new event centre will negatively impact the operation
of community facilities such as banquet halls.
11%
16%
24%
A new event centre will help keep our young people in
the city by giving them more to do
19%
22%
14%
17%
27%
22%
31%
5%
8%
66%
57%
4%
55%
3%
55%
28%
5%
50%
25%
6%
42%
23%
15%
25%
20%
13%
19%
32%
Somewhat agree
Don’t know
27%
39%
34%
3%
6%
36%
30%
Q8. Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following? Whenever I say ‘event centre’ I am
referring to the proposed event and convention centre. Base: All respondents (n=1000)
14
Anticipated Potential Property Tax Increase as a Result of Event Centre
Half (49%) of respondents did not know what to expect when asked about increases in annual residential
property taxes to build and operate the event/convention centre. Among those who provided an answer,
estimates were varied. However, 36% of residents anticipate a potential property tax increase greater than 1%.
Less than 1%
1%
2%
2%
6%
8%
3%
5%
4%
5%
5%
6% or more
I don’t think property taxes will go up
I don’t know
7%
11%
8%
49%
Respondents were permitted to answer this question as either a percentage or a dollar figure. All responses have been converted to a percentage for
ease of analysis.
Q9. Thinking about the costs required to build and operate the event and convention centre, how much do you expect annual residential property taxes will have to
increase for the average home? Base: All respondents (n=1000)
15
Acceptable Property Tax Increase
The majority of Thunder Bay residents believe that a potential 1% property tax increase (64%) and to a lesser
extent a 1.5% potential property tax increase (58%) is acceptable (very/somewhat) to cover the construction
and operating costs for the proposed event and convention centre.
Residents 18-54 are significantly more likely to support up to a 1% or 1.5% property tax increase compared to
residents over the age of 55. Support for a property tax increase is positively correlated with income. In other
words, as household income increases, so does support for the proposed property tax increase.
Very acceptable
Somewhat acceptable
Up to a 1% property tax increase (the equivalent of up
to $24 per year for the average homeowner)
Up to a 1.5% property tax increase (the equivalent of or
up to $36 per year for the average homeowner)
Not very acceptable
35%
24%
Not at all acceptable
29%
33%
10%
12%
24%
28%
Very/ Somewhat
acceptable
64%
58%
12. The cost to construct the event centre will need to be paid for in in part by the Federal and Provincial governments and potentially the private sector. However,
some of the construction and operating cost will have to be covered by the City and may result in an increase in property taxes. In your view, is _____ very acceptable,
somewhat acceptable, not very acceptable or not at all acceptable for residents to pay for the new event centre? Base: All respondents (n=1000)
16
Understanding The Issues that Impact Support and Opposition
On the next slide is a Derived Importance Gap Analysis
One of the methods used to understand the issues that are most important to whether or not
residents support or oppose the proposed event centre project is Correlation Analysis. In this
project, Correlation Analysis has been conducted between the issues/statements in Question
8 and overall support or opposition to the project assuming a potential 1% property tax
increase (Question 13).
The degree to which each statement is correlated to
support/opposition is indicated by a correlation co-efficient (ranging from 0 to 1). The closer
to 1, the stronger the correlation, thus the more important it is to whether or not residents
support or oppose the project.
The correlation coefficients have been plotted along the x-axis and the current level of
agreement with the statement/issue has been plotted along the y-axis, to reveal which issues
the City should focus on addressing in order encourage more residents to support the
proposed project.
17
What Do Residents Need To Know to Support Event Centre?
KEY STRENGTH: The degree to which residents find a 1% or 1.5% property tax increase acceptable is a strong predictor
of support or opposition to the centre. Once told to estimate a 1.5% increase the majority of residents (58%) feel the
increase is acceptable (64% find a 1% increase acceptable). Thus, the City should communicate the 1% figure with
residents as soon as it is confirmed in order to help solidify and grow support.
Strength
Secondary
Strength
Weakness
KEY WEAKNESS: The City needs to do a better job explaining why the centre is needed and that it will be worth the
expense in the long run. Many residents who oppose do not fully understand/accept this. Secondarily, the City needs to
demonstrate that it has an effective plan in place to mitigate traffic and parking concerns. This is a concern for many
who currently oppose the project.
Stronger 0.9
Strength of correlation to
support or opposition at the
1% property tax level
1.5% increase is
acceptable
Weaker
Secondary
weakness
1% increase is
acceptable
0.8
Might be expensive but
worth in in the long run
0.7
0.6
Trust Council to make
Cost too much*
decision in best
interests of residents
We don’t need it*
0.5
0.4
0.3
30%
Low
More events
Will keep young people
City has done good
in the city
job consulting residents
Create new jobs
Once told of the 1-1.5%
increase this concern
goes away for a majority
of residents
More traffic
congestion*
Negatively impact
auditorium*
40%
More tourism
Economic growth
Not enough parking*
Increased property
taxes*
50%
60%
70%
Current Level of Agreement (% Agree)
80%
90%
High
18
Reaction To Facts about the Proposal (Among Those Opposed)
The facts and information below are modestly effective in motivating support among those who are aware of the
proposed centre and are currently opposed. About one-quarter (including one-third of those who oppose the
current proposal, but support a new centre and roughly two-in-ten of those who do not support any development)
say they are more likely to support the proposal centre after learning the estimate of $150 million in incremental
economic benefit to Thunder Bay or that the event centre will contribute to economic diversification and
revitalization of the downtown core/waterfront.
Much more likely
Much less likely
During construction there will
be approximately $150 million
in total incremental economic
benefits for Thunder Bay
including new employment
income
Oppose current proposal, but
support new centre
The event centre will
contribute to economic
diversification of the City and
revitalization of the downtown
core and waterfront district
Oppose current proposal, but
support new centre
Oppose new centre of any
kind
Oppose new centre of any
kind
Somewhat more likely
Has no impact
8%
4% 15%
7%
14%
25%
12%
25%
15%
16%
Somewhat less likely
Don’t know
19%
25%
16%
33%
28%
39%
21%
Much more/
Somewhat more
likely
4%
6%
28%
36%
4%
33%
19%
32%
15%
Results less than 3% are not shown.
Q10. Now, for each of the following statements from the City’s (Phase 2) Feasibility Study, please tell me if it makes you much more, somewhat more,
somewhat less or much less likely to support the proposed event and convention centre or does it have no impact on your view. Base: Those aware who
oppose the current proposal but support a new centre (n=124), Those aware who oppose any new centre (n=146)
19
Reaction To Facts about the Proposal (Among Those Opposed)
Reaction is similar to the other two facts below (about 20% are more likely to support the proposed event
centre). The 20% figure is based on 3 in ten of those opposed to the current proposal and one in ten of those
opposed to a new centre of any kind.
New events and conferences
are expected to generate over
$6 million annually in spending
by out-of-town visitors to the
facility
The event centre is projected
to host an estimated 270
events annually compared to
approximately 55 events
currently at the Fort William
Gardens
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
Has no impact
Don’t know
Oppose current, but
support new centre
Oppose new centre of
any kind
Oppose current, but
support new centre
Oppose new centre of
any kind
6%
13%
3%
24%
15%
24%
12% 10%
14%
23%
27%
15%
28%
26%
38%
20%
29%
41%
Much more/
Somewhat more
likely
8%
30%
7%
13%
8%
28%
6%
15%
Results less than 3% are not shown.
Q10. Now, for each of the following statements from the City’s (Phase 2) Feasibility Study, please tell me if it makes you much more, somewhat more,
somewhat less or much less likely to support the proposed event and convention centre or does it have no impact on your view. . Base: Those aware who
oppose the current proposal but support a new centre (n=124), Those aware who oppose any new centre (n=146)
20
Support for Event Centre – Post Property Tax and Event Fact Information
In order to determine whether support for the event and convention centre shifts after hearing information
about the proposed event centre, overall support was asked once again at the end of the survey. As it turns
out, support for the event and convention centre does not decrease once residents hear there may be a 1%
property tax increase. Overall support holds at six-in-ten (62%).
Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Depends
Don't know
Initial (pre) Support
Final (post) Support
31%
34%
30%
28%
11%
22%
10%
24%
Strongly &
Somewhat Support
4%
61%
62%
*Values less than 3% not labeled.
Q13. If the City’s (Phase 3) feasibility study, currently in progress, determines that a 1% increase in property taxes is required (the equivalent of up to $24 per
year for the average homeowner) to cover the City’s cost to build and operate the proposed event and convention centre - would you say that you strongly
support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the proposed event centre, knowing this? Base: All respondents (n=1000)
21
Profiling Residents on
Support/Opposition
“We need growth in the city and I think it
is helpful to quality of life; my children
and grand children will benefit.
Because I am into sports and the city
needs it.”
(Excludes 4% who are undecided)
“Because it will be great for the city and bring
in revenue, tourism and hockey.
I think it's a well needed facility, but they are
planning it in the wrong area.”
Strongly support
34%
“ I cannot see where the parking will be.
People will be walking 10 minutes; they will
not walk 10 blocks to go to this event centre.”
Somewhat support
“The city cannot afford it. There
is not enough entertainment to
utilize the centre, and there are
other buildings that can be used
for events. The money should be
invested towards improving
hospitals and roads. Myself and
my family will not attend.”
28%
Somewhat oppose
10%
Strongly oppose
Skew younger (Average age 48)
Skew toward McIntyre and Red River Wards
More likely to have children <18
Higher household income
Most likely to believe it will generate
business/tourism
24%
Skew younger (Average age 46)
Believe it will generate tax revenue for city
Believe it will bring more sporting and entertainment events to the City
More likely to believe that it is good for everyone in the community
Some believe it is being planned in the wrong location
Skew older (Average age 54)
Oppose proposed plan, but like the idea of centre – believe it is the wrong location
Would rate see Council focus on other issues e.g. roads ahead of this
Oppose any centre (uncertain costs, City can’t afford it & insufficient parking)
Skew older (Average age 56)
Less likely to attend events
Less likely to have children <18
Most likely to own home
Skew lower household income
Skew priority on roads & taxes
Skew toward Neebing and Westfort
22
Summary of Findings
23
Key Insights
Nearly all residents are aware of the proposed event centre, but it is not a top of mind issue in the city.
Nine-in-ten (91%) residents are aware of the proposed event centre, but only 13% name the project, unaided, as
one of the most important issues facing the city.
Based on residents’ current understanding of the proposal, a majority support it.
Six-in-ten (61%) residents aware of the proposal support it (31% strongly support and 30% somewhat support).
One-in-ten (11%) are somewhat opposed and 22% are strongly opposed with 6% of residents unsure of their
opinion or indicate that their view depends on more information on issues such as costs . Of those who were
hearing about the proposal for the first time during the survey (n=91 residents), 61% indicate support.
Four-in-ten of those opposed to the proposed event centre dislike the current proposal, but support the
development of new centre.
Of the 33% who oppose the proposed centre, four-in-ten (41%) say they oppose the current proposal, but support
the development of a new event centre, and five-in-ten (49%) say they oppose the development of any new
event/convention centre. One-in-ten (10%) are unsure if they oppose the proposal or any development.
Uncertainty about the costs of the construction, location of centre and parking are the greatest concerns among
residents. However, the primary reasons for support or opposed (as stated by residents and derived from
Correlation Analysis) are focused on whether or not residents believe the new centre is needed, that it will be
worth the investment and whether or not the city can afford it.
Top concerns about the proposed event centre include parking issues (30%), location (29%), and uncertain costs
(28%). Other concerns include the amount of property tax increase required (23%), increased traffic congestion
(13%), and concerns about a lack of government funding (10%).
The primary reasons given for support are: that the city needs a bigger/better facility and that it will lead to
economic growth, while the primary reasons for opposition are: the city can’t afford it, it is a bad location, and that
it is not necessary.
24
Key Insights
Six-in-ten residents (64%) indicate a 1% potential increase in property taxes to cover construction and
operating costs is acceptable (58% find a 1.5% increase acceptable).
Prior to being instructed to consider the possibility that property taxes could potentially increase by 1%
or 1.5%, residents were asked to estimate how much they would expect annual residential property taxes
to go up to cover the construction and operating costs associated with the proposed centre. While nearly
half (49%) had no idea, most others (36%) indicated that they expect property taxes to potentially go up
by more than 1%.
Once told to consider the possibility of a 1% and 1.5% increase, a majority of Thunder Bay residents
believe that a 1% property tax increase (64%) and to a lesser extent a 1.5% property tax increase (58%) is
acceptable (very/somewhat).
Support for the proposed centre remains at six in ten assuming a 1% property tax increase.
If Phase 3 determines that a 1% property tax increase is required, support for the project holds at 62%
(34% strongly and 28% somewhat support). One-third (34%) oppose (10% somewhat and 24% strongly)
and 4% say it depends/don’t know.
 There are some shifts however, 14% of those who currently oppose the project say a potential 1%
property tax increase is acceptable, while 10% of those who currently support the project say they would
oppose it on the basis of the potential 1% property tax increase.
25
Recommendations
Demonstrating that the new event centre justifies a potential 1% property tax increase is a key task for
the City.
The City should communicate the potential 1% property tax figure with residents as soon as it is
confirmed in order to help solidify support and alleviate the uncertainty of costs. The survey indicates
that the degree to which residents find a 1% property tax increase acceptable is a strong predictor of
support or opposition to the centre.
It is equally important for the City to put more focus on communicating the benefits of the event centre
and that it will be worth the expense in the long run. Gaining funding commitments from other levels of
government and private sector will also be important to demonstrating affordability and strengthening
public support for the project.
Finally, the City needs to demonstrate to residents why the proposed location is the best option and that
it has an effective plan in place to mitigate traffic and parking concerns.
26
Appendix A: Ward
Profile
27
Attitudes Towards Event Centre
Westfort residents, who are least supportive of the proposal, are also most likely to be concerned with
insufficient parking (81%), congestion problem downtown (74%) and believe that the city does not need
a new event centre because the current facilities are adequate (46%).
Red River residents are the least concerned about parking or traffic and most likely to agree that the
current facilities are inadequate.
Current
River
McIntyre
McKellar
Neebing
Northwood
Red
River
Westfort
% Agree
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
Overall Support
(Q13)
68%L
68%L
68%L
58%
58%
61%
53%
Concerned about
not enough
parking
70% K
62%
69%
73% K
75% GK
58%
81% FGHK
Will create
congestion
problems in the
downtown
59%
64%
65%
70% FK
73% FK
57%
74% FK
Does not need
event centre –
current facilities
are adequate
33%
33%
37%
35%
37%
29%
46% FGK
* For an explanation on statistical letters, see reporting conventions on slide 5.
28
Support for Event Centre – Post Property Tax and Event Fact Questions
WARD PROFILE
Support for the proposed event and convention centre is highest in McIntyre (68% including 49% strongly
supportive), followed by Current River, and McKellar wards (68% support) and lowest in Westfort (53%).
Overall
Total
Current
McIntyre
River
McKellar
Neebing Northwood
Red
River
Westfort
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
Strongly
support
34%
37%L
49%FHIJL
35%L
31%
28%
39%JL
22%
Somewhat
support
28%
32%G
18%
33%G
26%
30%G
22%
32%G
Somewhat
oppose
10%
7%
10%
10%
12%
8%
11%
16%FJ
Strongly
oppose
24%
20%
22%
17%
27%H
31%FH
22%
27%
Overall
Support
62%
68%L
68%L
68%L
58%
58%
61%
53%
* For an explanation on statistical letters, see reporting conventions on slide 5.
Q13. If the City’s (Phase 3) feasibility study, currently in progress, determines that a potential 1% increase in property taxes is required (the equivalent of up to $24 per
year for the average homeowner) to cover the City’s cost to build and operate the proposed event and convention centre - would you say that you strongly support,
somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the proposed event centre, knowing this? Base: All respondents (n=1000)
29
Appendix B:
Demographics &
Attendance at
Spectator Events
30
Attendance at Spectator Events In and Outside of Thunder Bay
Currently, more Thunder Bay residents pay to see shows, plays or musical events in Thunder Bay than sporting
events. Roughly half (45%-51%) of residents report paying to see shows or sporting events outside Thunder Bay
at least every couple of years. This includes 1 to 2 in 10 who report paying to see shows or sporting events
outside Thunder Bay every couple of months or more often.
Often (Every couple of months- More than once a week)
Once in a while (Once or twice a year/ Every couple of years)
Paid to see shows, plays or musical events in Thunder Bay
48%
Paid to see sporting events in Thunder Bay
39%
Paid to see shows, plays or musical events out of town
16%
Attended conferences/conventions either in/outside Thunder Bay
18%
Paid to see sporting events out of town
34%
14%
17%
25%
35%
28%
31%
Never
36%
48%
53%
54%
Q14. Thinking about the past 12 months, including all four seasons, how often have you…? Would you say you go more than once a week, every couple of weeks, once a
month, every couple of months, once or twice a year, every couple of years, or never. Base: All respondents (n=1000)
31
Demographic Profile
Household Income
Gender
Male
48%
Less than $25,000
6%
Female
52%
$25,000 to less than $50,000
13%
$50,000 to less than $75,000
20%
$75,000 to less than $100,000
16%
Age
18-34
26%
$100,000 to less than $125,000
12%
35-54
35%
$125,000 to less than $150,000
6%
55+
39%
Greater than $150,000
7%
Don't know / refused
21%
Own/ Operate Business
Yes
10%
No
90%
Number of Children under 18 in home
0
73%
1
12%
2
11%
3 or more
4%
Rent or Own Home
Own
83%
Rent
13%
Neither
3%
32
Appendix C:
Questionnaire
33
2014 Questionnaire
INTRODUCTION: Hello, my name is __________________ - I’m calling from Ipsos Reid, a national public opinion research company on
behalf of the Corporation of the City of Thunder Bay. WE ARE NOT SELLING ANYTHING – We are conducting a survey among residents
of Thunder Bay regarding important municipal issues. All of your responses will be kept strictly anonymous and confidential.
We’re interested in hearing from a broad cross-section of residents over the age of 18. Is there anyone in your household who is 18 to
34 years old?
(IF YES) Can I speak to that person?
(ARRANGE CALL-BACK IF 18-34 YEAR OLD HOUSEHOLD MEMBER IS UNAVAILABLE)
(IF NO MEMBERS OF THE HOUSEHOLD ARE 18-34 YEARS OF AGE) May I speak to the person in the household who last had a birthday?
(IF RESPONDANT IS DIFFERENT FROM FIRST CONTACT, RE-READ INTRODUCTION)
(IF RESPONSE ASKS ABOUT HOW LONG THE SURVEY WILL TAKE READ: The survey will take approximately 10 minutes.)
SCREENER QUESTIONS
A) Before we get started, does anyone in your household work for (READ LIST)?
An advertising agency
The media – that is a radio or TV station, newspaper, magazine or online news agency
A market research firm
OR
[ASK LAST] Is an elected official or senior management of the City of Thunder Bay
(DO NOT READ) None
[IF ‘NONE’, CONTINUE. OTHERWISE (INCLUDING DK/REF), THANK AND TERMINATE]
B) Do you live in The City of Thunder Bay? That is within the city limits and not neighbouring municipalities.
Yes
No
34
2014 Questionnaire
C) Record gender.
D) What year were you born in?
Important Issues Facing the City of Thunder Bay
To begin, in your view what are the most important issues facing the City today? That is, what issues should receive the greatest
attention from City Council? [Open-ended question. Used pre-coded list]
Awareness of Proposed Event Centre
2. Are you aware that the City is planning for the development of a new event and convention centre which will be a regional facility for
sport tourism, conventions and other major events?
Yes
No
Don’t know
3. What specifically, have you heard about the proposal for the event and convention centre? …Anything else? (RECORD ALL
MENTIONS)
Current Support/Opposition to the Proposed Event Centre
4. Based on what you currently know, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the
development of the proposed event and convention centre?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Depends (on details such as how much it will cost etc.)
35
2014 Questionnaire
5. Why do you [IF STRONGLY OR SOMEWHAT SUPPORT IN Q4 INSERT
‘support the proposed event and convention centre’ IF STRONGLY OR
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE IN Q4 INSERT ‘oppose the proposed event and
convention centre’ IF DEPENDS AT Q4 INSERT ‘say your support or
opposition for the proposed event and convention centre depends’] ?
(OPEN-END, RECORD ALL MENTIONS)
8. Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree,
somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following?
Whenever I say ‘event centre’ I am referring to the
proposed event and convention centre.
A new event centre will increase tourism in the city.
A new event centre will create a number of new jobs in the
city.
6. Which of the following is closest to your view?
I oppose the current proposal, but support the development of a new event A new event centre will result in economic growth in the
city.
and convention centre.
I oppose the development of a new event and convention centre of any kind. A new event centre will increase the number of sporting
and entertainment events that are held in the city.
A new event centre will help keep our young people in the
7. Recognizing that you are not aware of the details of the proposal, do you
city by giving them more to do
generally support or oppose building a new event and convention centre to
A new event centre will increase the property taxes for
replace Fort William Gardens? Is that strongly or somewhat?
residents.

A new event centre will cost the city too much money to
Strongly support
build and operate.
Somewhat support
A new event centre should only happen with funding from
Somewhat oppose
other levels of government and the private sector.
Strongly oppose
The city has done a good job of consulting with the public
Don’t know
on the proposed event centre.
Depends (on details such as how much it will cost etc.)
Thunder Bay does not need a new event centre, because
the current facilities are adequate.
A new event centre might be expensive but it’s worth it in
the long run.
I trust the City Council to make decisions about the
proposed event centre in the best interests of residents.
36
2014 Questionnaire
A new event centre will negatively impact the operation of the community
auditorium.
A new event centre will negatively impact the operation of community
facilities such as banquet halls.
The amount of traffic a new event centre will generate will create congestion
problems in the downtown.
I am concerned the new event centre will not have enough parking.
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Don’t know
Gauge Anticipated Property Tax Increase
9. Thinking about the costs required to build and operate the event and
convention centre, how much do you expect annual residential property
taxes will have to increase for the average home?
[Open-end, record amount in $ or %]
I don’t think property taxes will go up [Single punch]
I don’t know [Single punch]
Impact of Proposed Event Centre Facts on
Support/Opposition
10. Now, for each of the following statements from the
City’s (Phase 2) Feasibility Study, please tell me if it makes
you much more, somewhat more, somewhat less or much
less likely to support the proposed event and convention
centre or does it have no impact on your view.
The event centre is projected to host an estimated 270
events annually compared to approximately 55 events
currently being held at the Fort William Gardens.
During construction of the event centre there will be
approximately $150 million in total incremental economic
benefits for Thunder Bay including new employment
income.
New events and conferences are expected to generate over
$6 million annually in spending by out-of-town visitors to
the facility
The event centre will contribute to economic diversification
of the City and revitalization of the downtown core and
waterfront district.
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
OR has not impact
Don’t know
37
2014 Questionnaire
11. What concerns, if any, do you have about the proposed event centre?
(OPEN-END, RECORD ALL MENTIONS)
(DO NOT READ LIST)
Property tax increase
Uncertain costs
Lack of Federal/Provincial funding
Parking issues
Traffic congestion
Location of site
Competition
Feasibility of AHL team
Impact on LU/Lakehead/University Thunderwolves (hockey team)
Other (Specify)
None
[Split Sample: n=500 get asked 1% and then 1.5% and the other n=500 get
asked 1.5% and then 1%.]
(Interviewer Note: this split sample is to ensure that there is no biasing of
results depending on the order with which the percentages are read out to
respondents.)
12. The cost to construct the event centre will need to be paid for in in part
by the Federal and Provincial governments and potentially the private
sector. However, some of the construction and operating cost will have to
be covered by the City and may result in an increase in property taxes. In
your view, is a [Insert amount] very acceptable, somewhat acceptable, not
very acceptable or not at all acceptable for residents to pay for the new
event centre?
Very acceptable
Somewhat acceptable
Not very acceptable
Not at all acceptable
(If Necessary Interviewer Note for Fly Sheet: If asked how
the increase was calculated, it’s based on using Thunder
Bay’s average residential property value of $148,000. If
they want to calculate for the value of their specific
property, the increase at 1% would be $16 per year per
each $100,000 assessed value of their property. At 1.5% it
would be $24 per year per $100,000 assessed value of their
property. Indicate that this survey has a residential focus
and to understand the impact on business, they should
contact Rob Colquhoun at the City at 807.625.3154. A tax
levy increase of 1% will generate an additional $1.6 million
in municipal tax revenue whereas a 1.5% increase will
generate an additional $2.4 million in municipal taxation
revenue.)
Up to a 1% property tax increase (the equivalent of up to $24 per year for
the average homeowner)
Up to a 1.5% property tax increase (the equivalent of or up to $36 per year
for the average homeowner)
38
2014 Questionnaire
Support/Opposition to Potential Property Taxes/Cost
13. If the City’s (Phase 3) feasibility study, currently in progress,
determines that a 1% increase in property taxes is required (the
equivalent of up to $24 per year for the average homeowner) to cover
the City’s cost to build and operate the proposed event and convention
centre - would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support,
somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the proposed event centre,
knowing this?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Depends (on details such as how much it will cost etc.)
Participation in spectator events
NOTE TO READER: This question will help determine incidence of
current event attendance and variations by demographic and
socio-economic variables].
Switching gears…I’d like to ask you some questions about your
leisure time.
14. Thinking about the past 12 months, including all four
seasons, how often have you [INSERT]? Would you say you go
more than once a week, every couple of weeks, once a month,
every couple of months, once or twice a year, every couple of
years, or never…
Paid to see sporting events in Thunder Bay
Paid to see sporting events out of town
Paid to see shows, plays or musical events in Thunder Bay
Paid to see shows, plays or musical events out of town
Attended conferences and/or conventions either in or outside of
Thunder Bay
More than once a week
Once a week
Every couple of weeks
Once a month
Every couple of months
Once or twice a year
Every couple of years
Never
39
2014 Questionnaire
Demographics
I just have some final questions for statistical purposes. All of your
responses will be kept strictly confidential and will only be looked at in
aggregate.
(IF NECESSARY: WE ASK THESE QUESTIONS TO ENSURE THAT ALL
SEGMENTS OF THE POPULATION HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO GIVE
THEIR OPINION.)
D1. Do you own or operate a business in Thunder Bay?
Yes
No
Don’t know
D5. And finally, what is your postal code?
[XXX-XXX]
On behalf of the City of Thunder Bay, I would like to thank you
very much for your participation. Thank you and have a great
day/evening!
D2. Do you rent or own your home?
Rent
Own
Neither (Do not read)
D3. And, how many children under the age of 18 are living in your
home?
[0-99]
D4. Would you say that your total annual household income before
taxes is . . . ? (Read list. Select only one. Stop when category is reached)
Less than $25,000
$25,000 to less than $50,000
$50,000 to less than $75,000
$75,000 to less than $100,000
$100,000 to less than $125,000
$125,000 to less than $150,000
Greater than $150,000
40
Ipsos Contact Information
Lauren Hilderley
Research Manager
300 -160 Bloor Street East
Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4W 1B9
Phone: 416-324-2301
Email: [email protected]