State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? A Primer on SIPs for Energy Regulators Authors Kenneth A. Colburn Brenda K. Hausauer Christopher A. James July 2012 The authors thank several people who made important contributions to the preparation of this primer. John Gerhard provided research and comments on several drafts. Rich Sedano and John Shenot provided valuable comments on the final drafts. Camille Kadoch edited the document. Electronic copies of this paper and other RAP publications can be found on our website at www.raponline.org. To be added to our distribution list, please send relevant contact information to [email protected]. State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Table of Contents Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Brief Overview of Clean Air Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 The Role of State, Local, and Tribal Governments under the Clean Air Act. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 National Ambient Air Quality Standards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 State Implementation Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Effectiveness of the Federal Clean Air Act. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Air Quality Management Plans: Moving Beyond SIPs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Appendix A: Required SIP Elements for Certain NAAQS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 List of Tables Table 1. Examples of Health and Welfare Impacts of Various Pollutants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Table 2. Pollutants Regulated by Certain Clean Air Act Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Table 3. Nonattainment Severity Classifications under the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 List of Figures Figure 1. Areas in Nonattainment of the 2008 NAAQS for Ground-Level Ozone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 2. Areas Potentially for Nonattainment of a Future NAAQS for Ground-Level Ozone . . . . . . . 11 Figure 3. Illustration of Periodic NAAQS Revisions and State SIP Processes under the Clean Air Act. . . . 12 Figure 4. Illustration of an Integrated Modeling Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 5. Economic Growth vs. Reduction in Criteria Pollutant Emissions, 1970-2009 . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Executive Summary T he U.S. electricity system faces and describing ways in which each can help During this time multiple urgent challenges the other. The Clean Air Act is described of compounded during the next several years to briefly, including its history, main goals, types challenges, reliable, address mounting transmission of pollutants regulated, impacts of those affordable, clean needs, adapt to smart grid technologies, energy solutions are pollutants, and the roles of the EPA and states expand energy efficiency and renewable in implementing the law. This primer then not likely to occur energy use, and meet increasingly stringent discusses NAAQS, how they are developed, unless energy and environmental requirements. Air quality the components of the standards, and what air regulators work management faces equally daunting happens when states do not attain the closely together, challenges imposed by the need for greater NAAQS. Finally, the SIP process is described, and understand health and environmental protection, what motivates each including how air regulations are developed diminishing state and federal budgetary agency and how each and updated through that process. The SIP support, and aging regulatory approaches. process has been effective at improving air conducts its work. During this time of compounded challenges, quality, but deficiencies and criticisms exist, reliable, affordable, clean energy solutions so the primer takes a quick look at how states are not likely to occur unless energy and are moving toward more effective, multiair regulators work closely together and understand what pollutant-oriented air quality planning in the future. motivates each agency and how each conducts its work. The public demands reliable, affordable, clean energy For energy regulators, such understanding begins with solutions. By understanding the obligations, structure, and an appreciation of the federal Clean Air Act’s provisions processes in which each agency acts, and working closely regarding National Ambient Air Quality Standards and purposefully to simultaneously meet state energy and (NAAQS) and State Implementation Plans (SIPs). The air quality goals, energy and air quality regulators can best Clean Air Act requires that the Environmental Protection satisfy the public’s interest. If energy regulators choose not Agency (EPA) establish health-based NAAQS; states must to engage with their air quality counterparts in this quest, achieve those standards by developing and implementing air regulators will be left with only those solutions under a SIP, a comprehensive, multi-sector suite of measures to their control, which are reasonably likely to favor endreduce pollutant emissions enough to meet the NAAQS. of-pipe options costing far more than solutions that are This primer details that process. available under the energy regulators’ control. Air officials, This report begins by discussing some of the differences of course, have a similar obligation to engage with the between state energy regulatory and air quality agencies energy regulators. 2 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Introduction T he next several years will be an Installing SO2 controls required capital Energy officials important and unsettled time expenditures, however, which required can benefit from for energy production and air utilities to initiate cost recovery proceedings cooperation with pollution control in the United and energy regulators to adjust rates air regulators; by States. As the federal government adopts considering air quality accordingly. By working closely together and implements new regulations to reduce going forward, energy and air regulators issues when choosing harmful pollutant emissions and to address among various energy have the opportunity to identify ways to climate change, many power plants and resources, they and the simultaneously meet state energy goals large energy users will be impacted to a and achieve compliance with air pollution utilities they regulate greater extent than in the past. In addition, regulations. can help reduce new state policies associated with energy Energy officials can benefit from such future environmental production and use will be necessary to cooperation; by considering air quality compliance costs and meet federal air quality regulations. Just as increase policy certainty issues when choosing among various the public seeks least-cost energy options, energy resources, they and the utilities regarding energy it also wants least-cost compliance with they regulate can help reduce future and environmental science-based, health-protective air quality environmental compliance costs and increase requirements in standards. Due to the emissions impacts policy certainty regarding energy and their states. of the energy sector, and the expertise environmental requirements in their states. of public utility commissions (PUCs) in In addition, new air pollution regulations evaluating integrated resource portfolios and least-cost will provide a new impetus, rationale, and set of options alternatives, least-cost air quality compliance is unlikely to for energy efficiency efforts. Air regulators can similarly be realized without the engagement of energy regulators. As benefit from energy regulators’ input as they seek to apply a result, it will behoove energy and air quality regulators to new regulations to the power sector; working together will collaborate to an unprecedented degree in order to ensure facilitate the identification of better, more flexible ways that policies to reduce air pollution and energy use are to comply with air pollution regulations. Because they carefully coordinated to produce maximum synergies at the are accustomed to integrated planning approaches, for least possible cost. example, energy officials may be able to help air regulators It is clear that energy regulators’ decisions affect air develop more effective, multi-pollutant approaches to quality. Delivered electricity consumption is projected addressing pollution. to increase by about 0.9% per year through 20351; if As the work of energy and air officials overlaps more this growth were to come at today’s system average and more, it is crucial for each to better understand the emission rates, overall air pollution would increase by obligations, structure, and processes in which the other about 24%, undoing the last 15 years or so of clean air acts. Although the work of energy and air officials may progress and public health improvement. Similarly, air increasingly overlap, each has distinct missions, statutory regulators’ decisions impact the energy sector; the federal authorities, and responsibilities. acid rain control program, for instance, successfully and cost-effectively reduced sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011 through the first large-scale application of cap-and-trade. 3 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Much of the statutory authority of regarding SIPs, a key cornerstone of air Much of the statutory state air regulators, for example, flows authority of state air regulators pollution control in the United States directly from the Clean Air Act and under the federal Clean Air Act. SIPs, flows directly from the Clean is delegated to states to implement. and the health-based NAAQS that they Air Act and is delegated to State, local, and tribal air officials2 address, are the primary means by states to implement. State, are responsible for meeting the which states develop – and the federal local, and tribal air officials requirements of the Act by undertaking government enforces – programs are responsible for meeting air quality management planning for and policies to reduce ambient air the requirements of the Act their jurisdictions and developing and pollution as required by the Clean Air by undertaking air quality implementing regulatory programs to Act. Although air officials often find management planning control air pollution.3 This contrasts the process for developing SIPs to for their jurisdictions and markedly with the broad, state-specific developing and implementing be onerous, the process provides the statutory authority of most PUCs. The framework, impetus, and funding for regulatory programs to processes employed by air quality and states to monitor and ensure healthy air control air pollution. This utility regulators also differ significantly; quality. contrasts markedly with the whereas utility commissions typically The following sections of this paper broad, state-specific statutory initiate dockets, qualify intervening provide background for energy officials authority of most PUCs. parties, hold quasi-judicial proceedings, on the federal Clean Air Act and the and determine orders based solely on EPA’s implementation of it; the role of the evidentiary record derived, environmental regulators state, local, and tribal governments under the Act; NAAQS; generally issue proposed regulations, seek public comment, and SIPS. Concluding sections reflect on the historical conduct one or more public hearings, revise the proposed effectiveness of the Clean Air Act, and on some jurisdictions’ rule as necessary, and promulgate it. Subsequent challenges efforts to undertake more comprehensive, integrated, and are then litigated in the courts. cost-effective air quality management planning that can Electric system reliability is a primary obligation be far more state-specific and may encompass air quality of energy regulators, whereas healthy air quality – as goals that exceed federal requirements or address issues not measured by adherence to or “attainment” of federal covered in federal law. standards – is a principal duty of air quality regulators. Energy officials monitor reliability through such metrics as system average interruption duration and frequency indices.4 They address reliability deficiencies through specific response proceedings, such as construction preapproval and/or general system demand projections 2 Unless otherwise noted, references to “states” in this paper are intended to apply generally to state, local, and tribal air quality and utility-specific efforts, like integrated resource jurisdictions. planning. Ultimately, elected officials oversee energy regulators’ performance, or the regulators stand for election 3 The five key air quality management tools include ambient standards, control measures, licensing/permitting, enforcedirectly. Air quality officials measure exceedances of air ment, and assessment. quality standards at monitoring stations, and address “nonattainment” deficiencies by adopting emission control 4 The Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) defines several reliability indices in IEEE-P1366, “Guide for measures and incorporating them into SIPs mandated by Electric Distribution Reliability Indices.” Among the most the federal Clean Air Act. As officials of executive branch common are the System Average Interruption Duration agencies, they too ultimately report to elected officials, Index (SAIDI), System Average Interruption Frequency Index although the EPA also judges their performance as to (SAIFI), Customer Average Interruption Duration Index whether the SIPs they submit are approvable. (CAIDI), Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index In support of greater common understanding, this (CAIFI), Customers Interrupted per Interruption Index (CIII), and the Average Service Availability Index (ASAI). guide for energy officials provides background information 4 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? A Brief Overview of the Clean Air Act amendments significantly increased the authority and responsibility of the federal government for air pollution, and included new programs for acid rain, an expanded program for controlling toxic air pollutants, and new provisions for attaining and maintaining the NAAQS. As reflected in the 2004 National Research Council report, Air Quality Management in the United States, the main goals of the Clean Air Act are: • Mitigating harmful human and environmental exposure in the ambient air from the “criteria” pollutants: ground-level ozone, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and lead; • Limiting the sources of and risks from hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), also called air toxics; • Protecting and improving visibility impairment in wilderness areas and national parks; • Reducing the emissions of pollutants that cause acid rain: sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides; and • Curbing the use of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer.7 A key characteristic of the Clean Air Act is that it distinguishes between two distinct kinds of air pollutants, so-called “criteria” pollutants and “toxic” or hazardous pollutants. “Criteria” pollutants are those for which NAAQS have been promulgated. The management of criteria pollutants is largely accomplished through control measures tailored by state, local, and tribal governments in their SIPs, as described below. Toxic compounds, however, are primarily regulated at the federal level (except where states have chosen to go beyond minimum Clean Air Act requirements). Table 1 shows the health and welfare effects of these pollutants, along with some of their sources. The federal Clean Air Act5 is a far-reaching statute that requires the EPA to control air pollutants known to be harmful to human health and environmental welfare. The current law reflects amendments enacted in 1990, but the roots of the Clean Air Act go back as far as the 1950s. In 1955, Congress passed the Air Pollution Control Act; it established air pollution research and technical assistance at the federal level but left states and municipalities in charge of air pollution control. The first Clean Air Act, passed in 1963, launched a federal program for air pollution control within the U.S. Public Health Service and established additional research into monitoring and controlling air pollutants. Federal efforts expanded with the 1967 Air Quality Act, when enforcement proceedings related to interstate air pollution The first strong, transport commenced, comprehensive federal and emission inventories, program to control monitoring studies, and air pollution came control activities were about with the 1970 established. amendments to the The first strong, Clean Air Act. Four comprehensive federal major new elements program to control air – which have since pollution, however, came become cornerstones of about with the 1970 federal air policy – were amendments to the Clean instituted: NAAQS, SIPs, Air Act. This legislation NSPS, and NESHAPs. created federal requirements All four have significant to limit emissions from impacts on electric stationary, mobile, and generating units. other air pollution sources.6 Four major new elements – which have since become cornerstones of federal air policy – were instituted: NAAQS, SIPs, New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), and National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs). All four have significant impacts on electric generating units. Also created in 1970 was the EPA itself. The new agency was immediately tasked with implementing the Clean Air Act, initiating a significant expansion of the federal government’s planning and enforcement authority regarding air pollution. Major amendments to the Clean Air Act were subsequently made in 1977 and 1990. The 1990 5 U.S. Code 42 § 7401 et. seq. 6 “Stationary sources” typically reflect industrial facilities – factories, power plants, refineries, smelters, and the like. “Mobile sources” are vehicles, both on-road (i.e., cars and trucks) and off-road (e.g., construction equipment, agricultural equipment). A third category, called “area sources,” reflects small, typically commercial facilities like dry cleaners, bakeries, paint shops, and so on that individually have small air quality impacts but in aggregate may have impacts warranting regulation. 7 National Research Council, 2004 5 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Table 1 Examples of Health and Welfare Impacts of Various Pollutants8 Pollutant Ozone (O3) Examples of Sources Formed in the atmosphere from volatile organic compounds (e.g., vehicle exhaust) and oxides of nitrogen in the presence of sunlight Health Effects Welfare Effects Eye and throat irritation, coughing, Damage to crops, forests, respiratory tract problems, asthma, other plants and ecosystems lung damage Particulate Matter Diesel engines, power plants, (particles, soot, or PM) industries, windblown dust, wood stoves Eye irritation, asthma, bronchitis, lung damage, cancer, heavy metal poisoning, cardiovascular effects, premature mortality Visibility impairment, atmospheric deposition, aesthetic damage Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Coal-fired electric power plants, petroleum refineries, manufacture of sulfuric acid and smelting of ores containing sulfur Eye irritation, wheezing, chest tightness, shortness of breath, lung damage Contributes to the formation of acid rain, visibility impairment, plant and water damage, aesthetic damage Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) Motor vehicles, electric power plants, and other industrial, commercial, and residential sources that burn fuels Susceptibility to respiratory infections, irritation of the lung and respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, chest pain, difficulty breathing) Contributes to the formation of ozone smog, acid rain, water quality deterioration, global warming, and visibility impairment Carbon Monoxide (CO) Motor vehicle exhaust, indoor sources include kerosene or wood burning stoves Headaches, reduced mental alertness, heart attack, cardiovascular diseases, impaired fetal development, death Contributes to the formation of ozone smog Lead (Pb) Metal refineries, lead smelters, battery manufacturers, iron and steel producers Anemia, high blood pressure, brain Affects animals and plants, affects aquatic ecosystems and kidney damage, neurologic disorders, cancer, lowered IQ Heavy Metals (e.g., Mercury, Arsenic, Chromium, Cadmium) Combustion of coal and oil, industrial processes (many are PBTs: persistent toxins that bioaccumulate in the food chain) Animals may experience Associated with a variety of cancer impacts as well as neurologic devel- similar health problems as opment, renal (kidney) dysfunction, humans and a number of other impacts Toxic Compounds (Hazardous Air Pollutants [HAPs]) Vehicles, industrial processes, factories, refineries, power plants, building materials, solvents, cleaners, and so on. Some toxics are also emitted from natural sources (e.g., volcanic eruptions and forest fires) Cancer and other serious health effects including damage to immune, neurologic, reproductive, and respiratory systems and developmental effects 8 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010a 6 Animals may experience similar health problems as humans State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? The EPA implements, administers, and These and other regulatory programs Since 1970 the EPA has enforces the Clean Air Act at the federal level. revised, strengthened, of the Clean Air Act typically seek to Its role is primarily to: address one or more public health issues and established 1.Establish acceptable (e.g., healthor welfare concerns. As shown in Table 2, new standards protective) concentrations of pollutants however, some pollutants contribute to several times, and in the ambient air; more than one air quality problem, so it is has routinely issued 2.Establish emission limits and other not uncommon for emissions of individual related regulations regulatory requirements for controlling pollutants to be regulated under multiple and guidance them; Clean Air Act programs, often with differing documents. 3.Revise the ambient and emissions parameters in terms of applicability, reduction standards in accordance with prescribed requirements, and timeframes. This can lead schedules that reflect and incorporate to understandable confusion and frustration scientific developments; and on the part of the regulated community. 4.Enforce the emission standards as necessary. Although this paper focuses on NAAQS and SIPs, there are many additional provisions of the Clean Air Act, the Consistent with these provisions, since 1970 the EPA implementation of which typically involves requirements has revised, strengthened, and established new standards that are incorporated into state SIPs. Described further several times, and has routinely issued related regulations below, these provisions include Prevention of Significant and guidance documents. Among the agency’s many Deterioration, NSPS, New Source Review, the Regional actions, the EPA adopted new NAAQS for ground-level Haze program, and others. ozone and fine particulate emissions in 1997, revising the standards again for particulates in 2006 and for ozone in The Role of State, Local, and Tribal 2008. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2007 decision Governments Under the Clean Air Act in Massachusetts et al v. EPA, greenhouse gas (GHG) Although the Clean Air Act is a federal statute, much emissions from stationary and mobile sources became of its implementation for criteria pollutants is “delegated” subject to regulation under the Clean Air Act, starting with to state, local, and tribal governments. This structure GHG emission reporting requirements for large sources in 9 2011. In addition, two major new regulations affecting the recognizes that because air quality issues vary widely with power sector – the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule10 (CSAPR) respect to different geographic areas, different pollutants, and Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) – were and different emission sources, these jurisdictions may be finalized in 2011.11 better positioned than the EPA to design geographically Table 2 9 Pollutants Regulated by Certain Clean Air Act Programs Volatile Mercury Organic and Other Compounds Toxic (VOCs)13 Compounds GHGs SO2 Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)12 Acid Rain • • Ozone • • Particulate Matter • • Mercury and Toxics • • Regional Haze • • Permitting • • • • Clean Air Act Program U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 10 On December 31, 2011, implementation of CSAPR was stayed by the DC Circuit. The Court heard oral arguments on April 13, 2012, and a decision is expected later in 2012. 11 For more information, see http://www.epa. gov/crossstaterule/ (CSAPR) and http://www. epa.gov/airquality/powerplanttoxics/ (MATS). 12NOX is regulated because ground-level ozone is formed by an atmospheric reaction of NOX and VOCs. • 7 13 Some toxic compounds are emitted in the form of VOCs. State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? optimal pollution control solutions. The their derivation, primary standards are Although the Clean Air Act is EPA establishes health-based ambient often referred to as “health standards,” a federal statute, much of its pollution concentration standards and secondary standards are often called implementation for criteria (i.e., the NAAQS), and designates “welfare standards.” It is important to pollutants is “delegated” areas as being in “attainment” or note that the Act requires the EPA to to state, local, and tribal “nonattainment” of those standards. base its NAAQS decisions solely on governments. This structure State and local governments are medical and scientific information about recognizes that because air required to work with the EPA to health and welfare impacts. Economic quality issues vary widely with develop and implement SIPs14 that will respect to different geographic impacts are considered as regulations are reduce emissions sufficiently to achieve areas, different pollutants, and developed and implemented, but not in attainment within the period specified different emission sources, these determining the NAAQS themselves. by the Clean Air Act. The EPA has set NAAQS for the six jurisdictions may be better State governments are responsible “criteria” pollutants: carbon monoxide, positioned than the EPA to for monitoring ambient air quality, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, lead, design geographically optimal inspecting facilities, and enforcing ozone, and particulate pollution (both pollution control solutions. the regulations that comprise the SIP. coarse and fine particles15). Some of these pollutants are emitted directly They must also demonstrate to the from sources (e.g., SO2, CO, lead). Others are formed in EPA at regular, three-year intervals that progress toward the atmosphere by chemical reactions involving precursor attainment is being made. The EPA must approve state plans to meet the NAAQS, and can impose sanctions if they pollutants; ground-level ozone, for instance, is created in the atmosphere through reactions of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) are inadequate, untimely, or not implemented. State plans and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of also become “federally enforceable,” such that the EPA sunlight. Some pollutants, such as fine particulate matter, can step in and enforce them directly if state governments are both emitted directly and also formed by reactions in the fail to do so. In exchange for carrying out these federally atmosphere. Adding to this already complex picture is the delegated Clean Air Act provisions, states receive funding fact that some criteria pollutants occur naturally to varying and assistance from the EPA for their state and local air degrees (e.g., low levels of ozone, particulate matter from quality programs. The Clean Air Act also requires states wildfires and dust, and certain VOCs from trees and other to collect annual emission fees (assessed as dollars per plants). Further, virtually all of these pollutants can be transton emitted), from major sources. Most states also charge ported by prevailing winds to other jurisdictions, although for pre-construction review and preparation of the draft typical transport distances vary greatly. construction permit. The EPA establishes a standard for each criteria pollutant – designated as a primary or secondary standard (or both) National Ambient Air Quality Standards – that includes an averaging time over which the pollutant is measured, a physical limit (typically expressed as the The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to develop NAAQS to concentration of the pollutant in the outdoor air), and a regulate pollutants present in the ambient (outside) air that are harmful to human health and the environment and that result from numerous and diverse stationary or mobile sourc14 Tribal jurisdictions may develop Tribal Implementation Plans es. Other air pollutants – such as toxic compounds – are (TIPs) instead of SIPs, but are not required to do so. Since regulated as well, but typically through rate-based or abso1998, Tribes have express authority to manage air quality on lute emission limits on specific sources rather than NAAQS. their reservations. 40 CFR 49 specifies tribal authority under The Clean Air Act identifies two types of NAAQS: primary the Clean Air Act. standards, providing public health protection, including pro- 15 Coarse particulate matter denotes airborne particles 10 tection for sensitive populations; and secondary standards, microns in diameter or smaller, and is often referred to as providing protection against damage to animals, crops, PM10. Fine particulate matter denotes particles 2.5 microns in diameter or smaller, and is similarly labeled PM2.5. vegetation, buildings, and decreased visibility. Reflecting 8 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? being in “attainment” or “nonattainment” for each criteria pollutant, depending on whether ambient pollutant concentrations in the area violate the NAAQS. In the case of broad urban areas, the EPA often applies consistent designations across census-based metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) or consolidated MSAs (CMSAs). Such designations may include counties in more than one state. An area may be in attainment for some pollutants, and nonattainment for others. Designated nonattainment areas are also classified with respect to the severity of their unhealthy pollution levels; areas with more severe pollution must adopt more stringent control measures but are given more time to attain the NAAQS. Table 3 shows nonattainment classifications, corresponding pollutant thresholds in the atmosphere (called design values18), and number of years allowed to reach attainment for 8-hour ground-level ozone. During the 1970s and 1980s, many areas had unhealthy pollution levels, especially for ozone and particulate matter. As a result, beginning in 1977 Congress established prescriptive program mandates for nonattainment areas. In 1990 Congress made additional changes, including ranking areas as to the severity of their ozone, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter pollution. Congress also specified new general mandates for all nonattainment areas and a number of more specific requirements for ozone and particulate Table 3 matter pollution (see Appendix A for a sample list). Nonattainment Severity Classifications Currently, areas that do not attain the ozone and under the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS 16 particulate matter NAAQS by their deadlines are immediately reclassified to the next highest level Primary Standard of severity. This gives the area more time to attain 8-hour Attainment Date design value (years after designation for the standard, but also requires it to adopt the more (ppm ozone) Area class 2008 primary NAAQS) stringent and prescriptive control measures specified for that severity classification. Marginal From 0.076 3 years after December 31, 2012 Up to 0.086 Another important change that came with the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments was greater recognition Moderate From 0.086 6 years after December 31, 2012 provision that stipulates whether or how often the limit can be exceeded and still allow an area to meet the NAAQS for that pollutant. For example, under the NAAQS for groundlevel ozone established in 2008, the averaging period is eight hours, the limit is 0.075 parts per million (ppm) (although it is commonly referred to as 75 parts per billion [ppb]), and areas are not considered to be violating the NAAQS until the three-year average of the annual fourthhighest daily maximum 8-hour average concentration at any ozone monitor is greater than 0.075 ppm. In other words, the three highest ozone occurrences (or “exceedances”) per year are discarded, but the fourth one “counts” toward the three-year average. If the three-year average is greater than the ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm, then the area “violates” the standard. Although it sounds complex, this form of the NAAQS increases regulatory stability and provides a better gauge of ozone’s actual health risks. States may set standards that are stronger, but not weaker, than the NAAQS.17 States are required to monitor and analyze ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants throughout their jurisdictions, and the EPA provides funding for these activities. Based on monitored data, the EPA designates counties as Up to 0.100 Serious From 0.100 Up to 0.113 9 years after December 31, 2012 16 Federal Register, 2012 Severe-15 From 0.113 Up to 0.119 15 years after December 31, 2012 17 States may also establish standards for pollutants for which there are no federal equivalents. Severe-17 From 0.119 Up to 0.175 17 years after December 31, 2012 Extreme Equal to or above 0.175 20 years after December 31, 2012 * but not including 9 18 Under the Clean Air Act, states are allowed to have one ozone exceedance per year averaged over a three-year period. A fourth violation in that period leads to that area being classified as nonattainment. Data from the three-year period are reviewed, and the fourth highest concentration is the design value. The level of the design value determines that area’s specific classification, as shown in Table 3. State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? that air pollution is often transported by The Act imposed upon states intervals, but they include many phases prevailing winds from upwind jurisdictions whose emissions contribute and stakeholders and are complicated to downwind ones. Specifically the Act materially to nonattainment and time-consuming; it often takes many imposed upon states whose emissions years to review and revise a single NAAQS. areas in downwind states contribute materially to nonattainment The NAAQS for ground-level ozone, for an obligation to reduce areas in downwind states an obligation example, was revised in 1997, again in their own emissions in to reduce their own emissions in order 2008, and may be changed again soon.19 order to make it possible to make it possible for downwind areas for downwind areas to have Periodic review of the NAAQS is not to have healthy air. This obligation healthy air. This obligation optional at the EPA’s discretion, however; applies even if the upwind state itself is in applies even if the upwind it is an obligation under the Act. The EPA attainment of the NAAQS. Recognizing state itself is in attainment is regularly sued – and regularly loses in court – when it fails to comply with this that air pollution does not respect state of the NAAQS. obligation. borders and that the eastern United States The ramification of periodic NAAQS had suffered for decades from unhealthy revisions is evident in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 shows ozone levels, the 1990 Amendments also designated an area areas in nonattainment of the 2008 NAAQS for groundfrom Maine to northern Virginia as the “Northeast Ozone level ozone (75 ppb) based on 2006-2008 monitoring data. Transport Region.” States in this region are required to Figure 2 illustrates areas that would be in nonattainment implement prescribed control measures, even in counties of the same NAAQS were it revised to a level of 70 that are in attainment for ozone. Atmospheric science has progressed significantly Figure 1 since 1990, reinforcing the Areas in Nonattainment of the 2008 NAAQS for Ground-Level Ozone20 need to reduce interstate transport of air pollution. Counties with Monitors Violating the March 2008 Ground-level Ozone Standards In fact, the core purpose 0.075 parts per million (Based on 2006-2008 air quality data) of the EPA’s recent CSAPR rule is to address this obligation. The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to review all NAAQS periodically to determine whether the standards for each criteria pollutant should be revised based on new medical or scientific evidence. Generally reviews are to take place at five-year 19 The EPA is scheduled to review whether the existing ozone standard is adequate to protect public health and the environment in 2013. 20 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010b 322 of 675 monitored counties violate the standard Notes: 1. Counties with at least one monitor with complete data for 2006-2008. 2. To determine compliance with the March 2008 ozone standards, the 3-year average is truncated to three decimal places. 10 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? ppb, 65 ppb, or 60 ppb and assuming nonattainment designations were made on the basis of the same 20062008 monitoring data. If the NAAQS for ground-level ozone were set to one of these more stringent levels, the number of counties in nonattainment would increase by 60%, 90%, or more than double, respectively. The fact that EPA is required to reassess NAAQS regularly – and to revise them if scientifically warranted – suggests that states should continually seek cost-effective emission reduction opportunities in order to reduce the risk of a future nonattainment classification and its attendant obligations. State Implementation Plans A SIP is a collection of emission reduction regulations, policies, and programs developed by state air quality agen- cies that together are expected to enable the state to attain or maintain the NAAQS by a date certain. SIPs must be submitted to and approved by the EPA. SIPs have been required under the Clean Air Act since 1970, and the EPA approved the first SIPs for states, territories, and the District of Columbia in 1972. Since then, most states have submitted many SIP revisions, either on their own initiative or because they were required to do so by subsequent Clean Air Act amendments or revisions to air pollution standards. Although attainment of NAAQS is the most prevalent role of SIPs, they are also often employed by states to secure delegation of several Clean Air Act programs unrelated to the NAAQS as well.22 States with nonattainment areas for one or more criteria pollutants must identify, adopt, and incorporate into an “attainment demonstration SIP” a comprehensive suite of emission reduction measures (often including prescriptive Figure 2 Areas Potentially in Nonattainment of a Future NAAQS for Ground-Level Ozone21 Counties with Monitors Violating Primary 8-hour Ground-level Ozone Standards 0.060 – 0.070 parts per million (Based on 2006-2008 air quality data) EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on 2008-2010 data which are expected to show improved air quality. 515 counties violate 0.070 ppm 93 additional counties violate 0.065 ppm for a total of 608 42 additional counties violate 0.060 ppm for a total of 650 Notes: 1. No monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate the standards. 2. EPA is proposing to determine compliance with a revised primary ozone standard by rounding the 3-year average to three decimal places. 11 21U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010c 22Certain sections of the Clean Air Act (e.g., New Source Performance Standards, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants) require the EPA to establish emissions standards applicable on a nationwide basis. In order for states to assume the EPA’s enforcement role for these standards, they must adopt measures at least as stringent as the federal rules. States typically do so by adopting these standards into their SIP and submitting it to the EPA for review. After the EPA’s approval, the state is delegated authority/responsibility for enforcement of those provisions. Until such time as these programs are delegated to the State, the EPA is the primary enforcement agency. For more information see http://www.epa.gov/region1/ topics/air/sips/REVISED_ WHATS_NOT_IN_A_SIP.pdf State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? measures required by the Clean Air Act) that will improve air quality in the area from nonattainment to attainment by a date certain. Once it reaches attainment, a state is required to file a “maintenance SIP” to ensure that its air quality remains healthy going forward, and what specific actions the state will take if it does not. States also must submit general “infrastructure” elements within their SIPs to demonstrate that they meet basic program conditions for managing air quality and have the capacity to attain, maintain, and enforce a new or revised NAAQS. States are also subject to occasional “SIP calls” by the EPA that compel them to adopt certain emission controls on certain sources. The agency’s recent CSAPR rule, which requires reductions in SO2 and NOX emissions from electric generating units in 28 eastern states, reflects this approach. The SIP process begins when an NAAQS is established or revised. Depending on their air quality status, states may need to make many or few SIP submittals. A state may submit a SIP to address ground-level ozone, for instance, and another one to address particulate matter pollution. Some SIP submittals are voluminous filings (e.g., to address a first-time nonattainment designation); other SIP revisions are essentially administrative in nature. Accordingly, SIPs are not “plans” in the traditional sense; there is no three-ring binder at the front desk of the Department of Environmental Protection containing “the SIP.” Rather, a nonattainment state’s SIP filings typically span thousands of pages reflecting federal obligations, adopted regulations, modeling, data sets, assumptions, public comments, and so on. Figure 3 illustrates the overall SIP process and also reflects the fact that NAAQS are occasionally revised based on periodic scientific reviews. States are required to operate a network of air quality testing devices that measure the concentrations of 23 James, 2012. Based on an earlier graphic characterizing the iterative nature of air quality management in National Research Council, 2004, 34. OAQPS is the EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards; OECA is the EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance. Figure 3 Illustration of Periodic NAAQS Revisions and State SIP Processes under the Clean Air Act 23 New regulations and requirements may be issued until standards are met. Federal EPA Revises Ambient Air Standards (Every 5 years) EPA takes into account new scientific research States Monitor Ambient Air Pollutants Plan Takes Effect and Is Continuously Revised Air quality is continuously monitored. If levels do not decrease, then data is reevaluated and the planning process resumes. EPA approves all monitoring stations and regulates quality assurance EPA Regional Office, OAQPS and OECA Work to Approve SIP Regional EPA serves as liaisons between state authorities and other EPA offices. State Authorities Develop State Implementation Plan (SIP) to Meet the Standards with Help from EPA Federal EPA Classifies State Regions According to Air Standards Air Quality Management Areas are classified attainment or non-attainment State authorities analyse data, assess sources, determine technologies and policies that will reduce pollution to the level of the standards. Local authorities convene stakeholder processes. 12 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? pollutants in the ambient air, activities that are funded by the EPA. Based on the monitored data, state governors propose attainment or nonattainment classifications for each county. The EPA adjusts these as necessary and determines the final designations. Nonattainment counties are then obligated to develop a SIP within three years that lays out an enforceable set of measures that it will implement to reach attainment. In order to develop a SIP, state air agencies enter monitored ambient air quality data and inventoried emissions data for each source category into air quality models to create a baseline of existing conditions. These air quality models assess the effects of pollution sources and whatever control measures are implemented to reduce pollution.24 States and the EPA input actual air quality monitoring data, using data from the monitor with the highest recorded concentrations of the pollutant(s) to be controlled in the state (or metropolitan area), and emissions inventory data for stationary, area, and mobile source categories.25 The reason the highest pollutant concentration in a state is used is that when new control measures are developed and modeled, if they show air quality improving sufficiently at the sites where ambient pollutant readings are highest, then all other locations in the modeled domain will assuredly attain the air quality standard as well. Then, the projected emission reductions associated with different pollution control strategies are modeled to determine their impacts on air quality. By iteratively conducting this process in consultation with the EPA, states ultimately arrive at a combination of measures that are expected to lower emissions enough to meet the NAAQS. Air quality modeling is immensely complex due to highly variable emissions, wind, and weather affecting the inherently dynamic atmospheric chemistry involved. As a result, most air quality modeling has been limited to the interplay of policy goals (e.g., regulatory targets), emissions, meteorology, time, and ambient pollutant concentrations. Scientific understanding of the underlying processes has improved, however, as has understanding of health impacts, climate change impacts, and energy system and economic considerations. As a result, it is increasingly possible to integrate multidisciplinary modeling (e.g., air quality, health, energy, and economic) in order to provide decision makers with a far more comprehensive and dynamic appreciation of available options and the ramifications of their choices. Figure 4 (page 14) illustrates the conceptual elements of an integrated model framework. Air pollution regulations typically specify the sources affected, emissions limits, how compliance is measured and assured, recordkeeping and reporting requirements, and penalties in the event of violations.26 Collectively the pollution measures described in the SIP, together with emissions reductions from federal programs implemented by the EPA (e.g., motor vehicle emission standards), must remove sufficient pollution from the air to attain the NAAQS, as indicated by the air quality modeling. And where transported pollution is an issue, they must reduce emissions sufficiently to enable counties in neighboring states downwind to attain the NAAQS as well. Although the pollution measures chosen by states may vary substantially, their emission reductions generally must adhere to five key Clean Air Act requirements: that they be real, surplus, permanent, quantifiable, and enforceable: • Real: There must be a reduction in actual emissions, resulting from a specific and identifiable action or undertaking. • Surplus: The pollution control measure must reduce emissions above and beyond reductions required by other mandatory air pollution programs. • Permanent: The emissions reductions produced by the pollution control measure must be permanent. 24 All models used must be EPA-approved. The EPA has developed most of the air quality models used by states. For more information see http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidanceindex.htm. 25 Actual emissions from stationary sources are input to the air quality model. Data from area sources are obtained from demographic factors relevant to the individual state. Mobile source emissions data are usually obtained from the EPA and adjusted as appropriate to the state’s fleet characteristics. 26 States are required to inspect all major pollution sources each year. Any violations of permit conditions or regulatory standards must be addressed and corrected. Sources that enjoyed economic benefit due to noncompliance must be penalized an amount equal to the value of the economic benefit plus an amount sufficient to prevent a recurrence. The Clean Air Act authorizes the EPA to assess penalties of up to $37,500 per day per violation. Each state also has its own penalty policy, which is reviewed and approved by the EPA. See also, for example, the EPA’s annual compliance and enforcement reports; the 2011 report can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ compliance/resources/reports/endofyear/eoy2011/index.html 13 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Figure 4 Illustration of an Integrated Modeling Framework 27 Global Climate Model Regional-Scale Climate Model Climate Impacts Models Goals and Policies Energy and Market Data Energy Model (NE-MARKAL) Emissions and Meteorology Emissions Health Data Air Quality Model (CMAQ) Health Benefits Model (BenMAP) Expenditures Costs, Benefits, and Adaptations Due to Climate Change Economic Model (REMI) Ozone Damage, Acid Deposition Ambient Concentrations and Temperature Health Effects Incidence and Cost-Benefit Key Economic Indicators (e.g., Jobs) • Quantifiable: Calculation the regulations to the EPA. A complete, A complete, methodologies must be acceptable, approvable SIP is extensive; it includes approvable SIP transparent, and replicable, and the raw includes information information about emission inventories, data required to verify the calculations monitoring networks, air quality analyses, about emission must be available. modeling assumptions and results, attainment inventories, • Enforceable: State and/or federal demonstrations, enforcement mechanisms, monitoring authorities must be able to enforce the networks, air quality and the adopted regulations. The finished SIP pollution control measure through legal is submitted to the EPA for approval, revision, analyses, modeling processes. or rejection. The EPA’s review and approval assumptions and Once the modeling of control strategies is process also can be quite lengthy. results, attainment completed, formal (i.e., notice and comment) Although the states and localities are demonstrations, or informal stakeholder processes are often normally responsible for enforcing the enforcement convened to gather feedback from industry mechanisms, and the requirements of the SIP, the EPA can also representatives, the public, non-governmental adopted regulations. enforce them. This is because the underlying organizations, experts, and others on the statutory authority for these rules is the package of regulations that are proposed in federal Clean Air Act. Although it is delegated the SIP. Similar processes for nonattainment areas that to states initially, the EPA bears ultimate responsibility cross state boundaries are often convened by councils of for achieving its purposes and, if necessary, enforcing its governments or as part of other multi-state, multi-agency requirements. Although infrequent, the EPA can initiate planning processes. The EPA itself often participates in enforcement actions against entities that violate regulations these processes, either directly to comment, or to assist and or requirements in state SIPs and has done so on occasion. offer advice. If a state or locality refuses to develop and implement an Several months to a year may be required to develop approvable SIP to address nonattainment, the EPA has the the SIP regulations to address nonattainment. Many states also require legislative approval before the state can submit 27 Colburn, 2004 14 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? authority and responsibility to develop and The degree to which then issue a new, later attainment date. implement its own Federal Implementation SIPs are not static documents; they are a single source may Plan (FIP) instead, or to impose sanctions continually being re-evaluated and revised. degrade the air including withholding of federal highway Pollution levels in local areas periodically depends upon the funds. influence the source change, regulations as implemented may turn Other remedies exist for cases in which out to be more or less effective than expected, will have on the a downwind state is affected by pollution population growth and economic activity surrounding areas emitted in and then transported from another, levels change and create corresponding and the NAAQS upwind state by prevailing winds. The changes in air pollution, so SIPs are often classifications of Clean Air Act provides that states affected adjusted to maintain their course toward those areas. by transported pollution may petition the achieving attainment. Additionally, improved EPA to compel the upwind state (or states) scientific understanding may lead the EPA to reduce its emissions. Once submitted, the EPA has 60 to issue a SIP call requiring one or more states to adopt days to take action on the petition. If the EPA agrees with additional control measures to reduce local air pollution or the state’s petition, the EPA will impose federal conditions emissions transported to downwind jurisdictions. on the upwind state. These federal conditions will remain In addition to NAAQS, there are many other in effect unless and until the upwind state revises its SIP requirements and provisions of the Clean Air Act. Many or develops a new SIP incorporating state regulations of these other provisions, described below, also are that reduce pollutant emissions enough to minimize their incorporated into state SIPs. impact on air quality in the downwind state. Because the • Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD). attainment status of a state is based on actual measured This permitting program applies to the construction pollutant concentrations in that state, however (regardless or modification of major sources in areas that attain of origin of the pollution), the downwind state may be the NAAQS. The degree to which a single source required to adopt additional control measures as well may degrade the air depends upon the influence the to assure that its air quality does not degrade. In such source will have on the surrounding areas and the circumstances, the downwind state may impose additional NAAQS classifications of those areas. The incremental control requirements on power plants, and, depending on degradation allowed by a single source is much less that state’s regulatory procedures, the utilities that own or if it impacts a national park or wilderness area than operate the affected power plants may request cost-recovery for other areas that meet the NAAQS. Sources in of their pollution control expenses. nonattainment areas for ozone must still do PSD for SIPs and their supporting documents must also all other pollutants, including NOX, which is both a demonstrate continuous improvement in reducing precursor to ozone and a criteria pollutant. States are pollution and progressing toward attainment. In required to prepare SIPs under this program, and can conjunction with the EPA, states must assess the efficacy also operate a federally delegated PSD program. of their control measures through regular “Rate of Progress” (ROP) and/or “Reasonable Further Progress” • New Source Performance Standards. These (RFP) determinations. These processes essentially compare standards require that new or modified major emissions reductions and air quality improvement to the industrial sources of emissions must be equipped with amount of time remaining until the required attainment the “best system” of emissions control available. Such date. Nonattainment areas that are running “behind standards have been developed for many types of schedule” may be required to adopt additional control 28 facilities, including electric generating units, primary measures. Nonattainment areas that do not attain the NAAQS by the required date must submit a new SIP revision for EPA approval, including additional measures 28 Typically states are required to demonstrate that emissions of as the EPA may require. Their nonattainment severity the subject pollutant decline at a rate equal to or greater than three percent per year. classification may also be “bumped up,” and the EPA may 15 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? metal production facilities, oil refineries, cement manufacturing plants, and large industrial boilers. A current question is whether energy efficiency measures might qualify as the “best system” for NSPS purposes. Also, as counterintuitive as it may sound, the EPA has the authority to promulgate NSPS standards for existing sources as well (i.e., not only new sources) when a pollutant is not regulated as a HAP or subject to an NAAQS.29 of the best performing 12% of facilities in the same industrial category. This is the program under which the EPA promulgated the MATS rule requiring reductions in mercury emissions from power plants. • The Acid Rain Control program. This program capped the total amount of emissions of SO2 from all large electric generating units, new and existing, and allocated emissions “allowances” – for free – to sources based on their historical emissions. Each allowance is equivalent to the emission of one ton of SO2. Sources covered by the program could then buy or sell allowances. This enabled greater reductions to be achieved at the more cost-effective facilities, which could then sell their extra allowances – in an open market – to facilities where emission controls would be more expensive to install. This program provided the first large-scale, successful, commercial test of the market-based concept known as “cap-and-trade.” NOX emissions can also contribute to acid rain; the Acid Rain Program did not set a cap on NOX emissions, but instead set emission rate limitations for coal-fired units and allowed utilities to develop more flexible system-wide compliance strategies.30 • New Source Review (NSR). This program establishes additional permitting requirements for new “major sources” of air pollution in nonattainment areas under the NAAQS. NSR requirements also apply to major modifications to existing facilities. New sources (or major modifications) can be allowed in nonattainment areas if (1) “offsetting” emissions reductions are obtained from existing sources in the same area (at a ratio based on nonattainment severity but typically greater than 1:1), and (2) the source is equipped with stringent technology-based controls that represent the “lowest achievable emission rate” (LAER). The rationale for this program lies in the relative ease of controlling emissions from new facilities, and the “grandfathering” of older facilities with high emission rates under the Clean Air Act. To dissuade sources from simply upgrading older, “grandfathered” facilities in order to avoid LAER requirements, the Act purposefully applied NSR and PSD requirements to major modifications of existing facilities. This has led to contentious debates about whether the Act effectively discourages plant upgrades that would result in cleaner, more efficient operations, but which fall short of LAER. It has also led to numerous enforcement actions and resulting legal challenges about exactly what comprises a major modification. • National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants. Covered industrial facilities emitting toxic air pollutants must be equipped with “Maximum Available Control Technology” (MACT) to reduce these emissions. For new sources, MACT reflects the best performing single similar facility in existence in the United States or elsewhere. For existing facilities, MACT requires emissions control technology reflecting the average emission reduction performance • Emissions limitations associated with other Clean Air Act programs may also affect power sector sources. Specifically, the Regional Haze program, which seeks to preserve and improve visibility in the nation’s “airsheds,” may require “best available retrofit technology” (BART) for SO2 and/ or NOX emissions from existing sources. Although excessive ozone and particulate matter are the predominant causes of nonattainment, in some circumstances ambient levels of SO2, NOX, CO, or other criteria pollutants may also lead to an area being designated as nonattainment. 29 Notably for total reduced sulfur emissions from pulp and paper mills, municipal waste combustor emissions, and most recently, for GHG emissions from power plants. 30 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, year unknown A 16 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? The SIP process is one of the principal air quality management tools in the United States, and it reflects an effective balancing of national, state, and local interests in improving and maintaining air quality protective of the public’s health and welfare. The SIP process creates an effective partnership between state and federal governments and allows tailor-made emission reduction programs to be developed for individual jurisdictions. The SIP process has also created a uniform methodology of measuring emissions across the United States, along with sophisticated models for linking emissions with air quality. Perhaps most important, the SIP process has worked: criteria pollutant emissions have decreased,31 air quality has improved, and many areas of the United States have attained the NAAQS. However, the SIP process is also enormously resourceintensive for state and local agencies as well as for the EPA. Appropriate concerns about the need to improve the SIP process – both technically and in terms of its resource requirements – have been raised. The National Research Council’s comprehensive 2004 report offers an accurate overview: The SIP process is an important and essential component of the nation’s air quality management system. It allows state and local agencies to take into account emission controls adopted at the federal and multistate levels and then choose a suitable suite of additional local emission-control measures to reach attainment. On balance, this process should provide an appropriate division of responsibility. It can also provide the basis for a constructive partnership between the federal and state governments that steadily improves air quality on the local, multistate, and national levels. Air quality monitoring data confirm that such improvements have occurred in the past two decades. Nevertheless, important adjustments to the SIP process are needed if the difficult challenges ahead are to be effectively addressed.32 Specific criticisms of the SIP process as it is currently implemented include that it: • Is overly bureaucratic, time consuming, and complicated, and focuses primarily on compliance with process steps; • Overemphasizes attainment demonstrations as opposed to tracking and measuring actual progress and performance more frequently; The SIP process has worked: criteria pollutant emissions have decreased, air quality has improved, and many areas of the United States have attained the NAAQS. However, the SIP process is also enormously resource-intensive for state and local agencies as well as for the EPA. Appropriate concerns about the need to improve the SIP process — both technically and in terms of its resource requirements — have been raised. • Takes a single-pollutant focus instead of a more costeffective and synergistic multi-pollutant focus; • Lacks adequate mechanisms for addressing multi-state air pollution problems; and • Fails to achieve attainment of ozone and particulate matter NAAQS in many areas.33 In addition, as one might expect in methods developed nearly a quarter century ago, the SIP process has not been ideally amenable to changing technologies and innovative practices. For the purposes of this paper, examples include difficulties in readily incorporating and crediting output-based regulatory approaches to electric generation, renewable energy, distributed generation, and energy efficiency. Some of these difficulties relate to uncertainties in quantification, permanence, enforceability, and precisely where the resulting reductions in generation (and associated emissions) occur. These are not trivial concerns, but the SIP process must be made amenable to the economic, public health, energy, and environmental benefits that these measures can provide. Although the SIP process is resource-intensive, it has provided a major impetus for the development of state air pollution monitoring and control efforts. States have found the process arduous, but the relative flexibility that SIPs provide enables states to tailor – to some degree – which categories of sources and what level of emission reductions will be targeted in the control measures that 31NOX emissions from power plants have decreased by 33% since 1990 and SO2 emissions have decreased by 41% since 1980. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Markets Program, year unknown C 32 National Research Council, 2004, 128 33 National Research Council, 2004 17 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? the state adopts to meet air quality requirements. This is difficult and challenging, but provides more options than the alternative: “command and control” dictates from the federal government. In addition, the funding and other resources that the EPA provides to support air quality monitoring, planning, and enforcement are important benefits for states. A few states routinely convene meetings between their air quality agencies and PUCs to discuss air quality planning as it relates to energy issues. These informal meetings allow PUC staff to provide input to the air regulator and also help inform the Commission about areas in which it may need to get involved or provide advance notice about future regulatory proceedings. Such informal meetings are not mandated by the Clean Air Act, but states that use them have found them very helpful for both energy and air quality planning purposes. Sharing issues, developments, and strategies also provides both agencies greater opportunity to prepare for and most effectively address the energy or economic aspects of air quality requirements – or the air quality impacts of upcoming utility or Commission decisions. Further, it helps to assure that both air quality and energy regulators are receiving the same information from affected utilities. programs to individual state circumstances. And although the costs of the SIP program and other Clean Air Act provisions are high, the benefits of the Act over the past 40 years far outweigh its costs. The Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 prevented more than 160,000 premature deaths in 2010, and this number is expected to increase to 230,000 by 2020.34 The costs of meeting all the 1990 Clean Air Act provisions in 2020 are estimated to be $65 billion, whereas the benefits from reduced death and illness, improved economic welfare, and better environmental conditions are estimated to be almost $2 trillion by 2020.35 Analyses of the costs and benefits of federal regulations by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) – under both Republican36 and Democratic37 Administrations alike – consistently suggest that of the total benefits of major federal regulations adopted by all federal agencies, about 80% are attributable to the Clean Air Act compared to only about 50% of the costs. Further, economic indicators appear to contradict assertions that the Clean Air Act has impaired the economy. As Figure 5 illustrates, emissions of the six criteria pollutants together have fallen by 63% since 1970, while private sector jobs increased by 86%, GDP 34 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, year unknown B Effectiveness of the Federal Clean Air Act 35 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2011 Developing and implementing SIPs can be challenging and onerous for states, and somewhat risky due to their federal enforceability. Few states, however, would forego the opportunity SIPs provide to tailor Clean Air Act regulatory 36 U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 2008. This analysis by President Bush’s OMB of major federal regulations adopted 1997-2007, listed the EPA Office of Air benefits at $79-573 billion against total benefits of $122-656 billion and costs of $26-29 billion against total costs of $46-54 billion. 37 U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 2011. This analysis by President Obama’s OMB Economic Growth vs. Reduction in Criteria Pollutant Emissions, 1970-200938 of major federal regulations adopted 204%: Gross Domestic Product 200 2000-2010, listed 170 168%: Vehicle Miles Traveled the EPA Office of Air 140 benefits at $77-535 billion against total 110 benefits of $132-655 86%: Private Sector Jobs 80 billion and costs 50%: Population 50 of $19-24 billion 41%: Energy Consumption against total costs of 20 $44-62 billion. Percent Change from 1970 Levels Figure 5 -10 -40 - 63%: Aggregate Emissions (Six Common Pollutants) -70 1970 1973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009 18 38 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2011 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? grew by 204%, and population, energy consumption, and vehicle miles traveled all increased markedly. use, transportation, energy, and ecosystem health.41 Ideally air quality management planning should seek to integrate all or most pollutants and air quality measures and activities into a single, internally consistent, cost-effective Air Quality Management Plans: approach to improving air quality, public health, and welfare. Moving Beyond SIPs This approach offers economies of scale, because most air pollutants come from similar sources and precursors, and The accomplishments of the Clean Air Act are truly strategies for controlling them are often similar. In addition, noteworthy. Nevertheless, as noted above, it has significant comprehensive air quality management planning can address room for improvement in light of current knowledge, problems caused by multiple air pollutants at the same time a fact that is unsurprising given that Congress last and interrelationships among pollutants, offering a pollution reauthorized the Act over two decades ago. In the case control framework that operates with internal consistency, of SIPs specifically, the process is time-consuming and rather than sometimes at cross-purposes. Comprehensive air complicated; it may not be optimally effective at reducing multiple pollutants; and it requires states to focus narrowly quality management planning would encompass measures to mitigate criteria pollutants, hazardous air pollutants, on one criteria pollutant at a time. The comprehensive and GHGs as required by federal law, as well as any more 2004 NRC report recommended numerous improvements, stringent standards or goals that may be but few have yet been adopted by Comprehensive air quality set by the individual state. As suggested Congress or the EPA. Accordingly, planning that integrates multiple throughout this paper, however, some jurisdictions are moving forward pollutants is only half the answer; comprehensive air quality planning on their own and have – through comprehensive integration of that integrates multiple pollutants is their actions – begun to consider energy planning and air quality only half the answer; comprehensive how the SIP process might be planning is ultimately essential integration of energy planning and air transformed into a more performancefor the development of reliable, quality planning is ultimately essential oriented, multi-pollutant air quality affordable, clean energy solutions. for the development of reliable, management planning process. The affordable, clean energy solutions. 2010 Clean Air Plan of the Bay Area Although a comprehensive Air Quality Management District in discussion about the process, benefits, costs, and San Francisco, California is a good example of movement 39 issues associated with developing and implementing in this direction. The first comprehensive multi-pollutant comprehensive air quality management planning in clean air plan of its kind in the United States, this plan concert with state energy planning is beyond the scope of applies to all pollutants, including criteria, toxic, and GHG emissions. It includes 55 control measures across stationary this paper, this approach promises to provide increased opportunity for cooperation and collaboration, because sources, mobile sources, transportation, land-use, and state energy agencies have substantial experience with leastenergy/climate sectors, many of which are designed to cost integrated resource planning to share. address the root causes of emissions, not just end-of-pipe emission controls.40 New York State also has a concerted multi-pollutant planning effort underway. Working with the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA), the Department of Environmental Conservation is developing an Air Quality Management Plan that addresses air quality concerns, including 39 The full plan and executive summary are available at http:// nonattainment and maintenance of criteria pollutant www.baaqmd.gov/Divisions/Planning-and-Research/Plans/ NAAQS, sector-based emission control strategies, emission Clean-Air-Plans.aspx and risk reductions of HAPs, climate change, and regional 40 James & Schultz, 2011 haze and visibility. To the extent practicable, it will also 41 Bielawa, 2011 include such considerations as environmental justice, land 19 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Conclusion O ur nation’s electricity system faces state air officials with nonattainment areas enjoy Half of all U.S. multiple urgent challenges to some flexibility but face absolute accountability citizens still address mounting transmission breathe unhealthy for identifying, developing, and implementing a needs, to install and adapt to comprehensive, multi-sector suite of measures air by virtue smart grid technologies, to expand the use of to reduce pollutant emissions enough to reach of living in a renewable energy, to capture unprecedented attainment: the SIP. Following their exhaustive nonattainment energy efficiency opportunity, and to development, SIPs must also be approved by area for at least meet increasingly stringent environmental the EPA, and once the Agency does so, it is one pollutant. requirements. Air quality management in the empowered to enforce the state programs and United States faces equally daunting challenges provisions within the SIP. imposed by science-based mandates for greater health and Further, just as state energy regulators face a continuing environmental protection, diminishing state and federal challenge to determine precisely what is “just and budgetary support, and clear signs of aging in traditional reasonable,” “used and useful,” or “prudent” in today’s “stovepiped” regulatory approaches. At the same time, half technologically, economically, and politically disruptive era, of all U.S. citizens still breathe unhealthy air by virtue of state air quality officials also face a moving target as the EPA living in a nonattainment area for at least one pollutant,42 – again adhering to Clean Air Act directives – periodically and America’s near century-long global economic reviews and modifies NAAQS to incorporate new scientific leadership is today in jeopardy. and medical evidence. For state air officials, such NAAQS In this context, conflict between appropriate health revisions create the risk of new nonattainment areas, a and environmental protections on one hand and a reliable worsening of existing nonattainment area classifications, or electricity supply on the other is simply untenable; both. they cannot continue to be each other’s worst obstacle. The Clean Air Act has certainly been successful; Rather than remain caught in a vicious cycle of increasing aggregate air pollutant emissions are down dramatically emissions, environmental regulations, costs, and reliability since its passage, despite significant increases in GDP, impacts, energy and air regulators have the opportunity population, energy consumption, and jobs. The Act is to create a “virtuous cycle” if they choose to engage jointly credited with a disproportionate share of the benefits of in creating reliable, affordable, clean energy solutions. all federal regulations from all agencies, benefits that far This essential outcome will not happen until energy and outnumber its costs. air quality regulators affirmatively decide to work closely The latest reauthorization of the Clean Air Act is now together, and understand what motivates each agency and over 20 years old, however, and is showing signs of age. how they each conduct their work. It doesn’t encourage innovation or enable cost-effective For energy regulators and staff – the intended audience multi-pollutant emission reduction approaches, for for this paper – such understanding begins with an instance, nor does it satisfactorily address multi-state appreciation of the federal Clean Air Act’s provisions regarding NAAQS and SIPs. Arguably the most complex 42 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012a. The EPA’s piece of environmental legislation ever passed, the Clean report indicates 154,454,000 people live in an area that is Air Act requires that the EPA establish health-based NAAQS in nonattainment for at least one of the NAAQS; the U.S. without regard to costs. States must achieve those standards Census Bureau indicates that the United States population as by a date certain or face serious sanctions. To meet this bar, of July 2011 was 311,591,917. 20 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? air pollution issues. Its requirements are working closely and purposefully to Rather than remain often overly bureaucratic and prescriptive. caught in a vicious cycle simultaneously meet state energy and The last amendments to the Act occurred of increasing emissions, air quality goals, energy and air quality prior to electricity restructuring, and its regulators can best satisfy the public’s environmental framers did not contemplate distributed interest. If energy regulators choose not to regulations, costs, and generation, demand response, renewable engage with their air quality counterparts reliability impacts, portfolio standards, the electrification energy and air regulators in this quest, air regulators will be left with of transportation, or the disruptive have the opportunity to only those solutions under their control, technologies now in development. Some create a “virtuous cycle” which are reasonably likely to favor endstates are moving ahead on their own to if they choose to engage of-pipe options costing far more than adopt air quality planning approaches that solutions that are available under the PUCs’ jointly in creating include multiple pollutants, multiple states, reliable, affordable, clean control. Air officials, of course, have a and even multiple agencies – specifically similar obligation to engage with the PUCs. energy solutions. energy and air quality authorities. By jointly answering the call to action for The public demands reliable, affordable, least-cost air quality compliance, air quality clean energy solutions. By understanding the obligations, and energy regulators may well create a template for future structure, and processes in which each agency acts, and improvements to the Clean Air Act. 21 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? Appendix A Required SIP Elements for Certain NAAQS 43 Acronyms used to describe the required SIP elements below include: • CTG – control technique guidelines • I/M – inspection and maintenance (motor vehicle tailpipe testing) • NOX – oxides of nitrogen • NSR – new source review • PSD – prevention of significant deterioration • RACM – reasonably available control measures • RACT – reasonably available control technique • RFP – reasonable further progress • TCMs – transportation control measures • VMT – vehicle miles traveled • VOC – volatile organic compounds • • • • • • • • • • • Ozone Requirements for the 1997 8-hour Ozone Standard Nonattainment Areas and the Northeast Ozone Transport Region • • The required SIP elements tracked for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard are: • • Ozone Attainment Demonstration (including emissions limits and other control measures adopted by the state) • RFP (VOC and NOX) for current classification • Emissions Inventory • Clean Fuels for Fleets • Contingency Measures (VOC and NOX) • Contingency Provisions for RFP Milestones • Emissions Statement • Enhanced Monitoring - Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) • I/M Basic • I/M Enhanced • Nonattainment NSR program for current classification • Stage II vehicle refueling vapor recovery or equivalent • • • • • • TCMs to Offset Growth VMT Demonstrations and TCMs Severe/Extreme Area Fee Program RACT Non-CTG VOC for Major Sources RACT NOX for Major Sources RACT VOC CTG Aerospace RACT VOC CTG Bulk Gasoline Plants RACT VOC CTG Equipment Leaks from Natural Gas/ Gasoline Processing Plants RACT VOC CTG Factory Surface Coating of Flat Wood Paneling RACT VOC CTG Fugitive Emissions from Synthetic Organic Chemical Polymer and Resin Manufacturing Equipment RACT VOC CTG Graphic Arts - Rotogravure and Flexography RACT VOC CTG Large Petroleum Dry Cleaners RACT VOC CTG Leaks from Gasoline Tank Trucks and Vapor Collection Systems RACT VOC CTG Leaks from Petroleum Refinery Equipment RACT VOC CTG Manufacture of High-Density Polyethylene, Polypropylene, and Polystyrene Resins RACT VOC CTG Manufacture of Pneumatic Rubber Tires RACT VOC CTG Manufacture of Synthesized Pharmaceutical Products RACT VOC CTG Petroleum Liquid Storage in External Floating Roof Tanks RACT VOC CTG Refinery Vacuum Producing Systems, Wastewater Separators, and Process Unit Turnarounds RACT VOC CTG Shipbuilding/repair 43 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012b 22 State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? • RACT VOC CTG SOCMI Air Oxidation Processes • RACT VOC CTG SOCMI Distillation and Reactor Processes • RACT VOC CTG Solvent Metal Cleaning • RACT VOC CTG Stage I Vapor Control Systems Gasoline Service Stations • RACT VOC CTG Storage of Petroleum Liquids in Fixed Roof Tanks • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating for Insulation of Magnet Wire • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Automobiles and Light-Duty Trucks • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Cans • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Coils • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Fabrics • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Large Appliances • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Metal Furniture • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Miscellaneous Metal Parts and Products • RACT VOC CTG Surface Coating of Paper • RACT VOC CTG Tank Truck Gasoline Loading Terminals • RACT VOC CTG Use of Cutback Asphalt • RACT VOC CTG Wood Furniture • RACT VOC CTG Flat Wood Paneling Coatings (2006) • RACT VOC CTG Flexible Packaging Printing Materials (2006) • RACT VOC CTG Industrial Cleaning Solvents (2006) • RACT VOC CTG Lithographic Printing Materials and Letterpress Printing Materials (2006) • RACT VOC CTG Large Appliance Coatings (2007) • RACT VOC CTG Metal Furniture Coatings (2007) • RACT VOC CTG Paper, Film, and Foil Coatings (2007) • RACT VOC CTG Miscellaneous Metal Products Coatings (2008) • RACT VOC CTG Plastic Parts Coatings (2008) • RACT VOC CTG Auto and Light-Duty Truck Assembly Coatings (2008) • RACT VOC CTG Fiberglass Boat Manufacturing Materials, and Miscellaneous (2008) • RACT VOC CTG Industrial Adhesives (2008) Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Nonattainment Area Requirements The required SIP elements tracked for PM2.5 nonattainment areas are: • • • • • • 23 PM2.5 Attainment Demonstration PM2.5 Contingency Measures PM2.5 Nonattainment Area NSR Program PM2.5 RACM/RACT PM2.5 RFP Emissions Inventory State Implementation Plans: What Are They and Why Do They Matter? 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Retrieved from http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/ omb/inforeg/2011_cb/2011_cba_report.pdf 24 Acronyms ASAI Average Service Availability Index NSR BART Best Available Retrofit Technology CAIDI Customer Average Interruption Duration Index NYSERDA New York State Energy Research & Development Authority CAIFI Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index CIII Customers Interrupted per Interruption Index CMSA Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area CO Carbon Monoxide OMB CSAPR Cross-State Air Pollution Rule O3Ozone EPA Environmental Protection Agency Pb Lead FIP Federal Implementation Plan PBT Persistent bioaccumulative toxin GHG Greenhouse Gas ppb Parts per billion HAPs Hazardous Air Pollutants ppm Parts per million IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineer PSD Prevention of Significant Deterioration LAER Lowest Achievable Emission Rate PUC Public Utility Commission MACT Maximum Available Control Technology RFP Reasonable Further Progress MATS Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ROP Rate of Progress MSA Metropolitan Statistical Area SAIDI System Average Interruption Duration Index NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards SAIFI System Average Interruption Frequency Index NESHAP National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants SIP State Implementation Plan SO2 Sulfur Dioxide NOX Nitrogen Oxides TIPs Tribal Implementation Plans NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide VOC Volatile Organic Compound NSPS New Source Performance Standards OAQPS New Source Review Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards OECA Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance Office of Management and Budget (White House) The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts focused on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. We provide technical and policy assistance on regulatory and market policies that promote economic efficiency, environmental protection, system reliability, and the fair allocation of system benefits among consumers. We work extensively in the US, China, the European Union, and India. Visit our website at www.raponline.org to learn more about our work. This report was printed by Ecolor Printing, Inc., utilizing a four-color, digital waterless press. No plate development or fountain chemistry is involved, greatly reducing the impact of the printing process on our environment. Home Office 50 State Street, Suite 3 Montpelier, Vermont 05602 802-223-8199 www.raponline.org
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