30-Year Conventional
Mortgage Rate
Rate %
10
8
6
4
2
0
00:1 01:3 03:1 04:3 06:1 07:3 09:1 10:3 12:1 13:3 15:1 16:3
U.S. Personal Income
Yr/Yr % Change
10
4.4
5
0
3.4
-3.3
-5
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
U.S. Payroll Employment
In Millions
150
141.8
140
130
120
117.4
110
100
'95
'99
'03
'07
'11
'15
U.S. Payroll Employment
Yr/Yr %Change
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
'15
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Percent
11
10
9
9.9
8
7
5.0
6 4.6
5
4
06:3 07:3 08:3 09:3 10:3 11:3 12:3 13:3 14:3 15:3 16:3
U.S. Single-Family Home Prices
In Thousands of $
240
221.4
200
160
120 96.8
80
'91
'95
'99
'03
'07
'11
'15
Real GDP
Yr/Yr % Change
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
07:3 08:3 09:3 10:3 11:3 12:3 13:3 14:3 15:3 16:3
Consumer Price Index
Yr/Yr % Change
3
CPI
CPI core
2
1
0
-1
14:3
15:1
15:3
CPI = all items; CPI core = all items less food and energy
16:1
16:3
S&P 500
Index
2,500
2,168
2,000
1,527
07:3
1,499
1,500
1,000 687
815
798
500
96:3 98:3 00:3 02:3 04:3 06:3 08:3 10:3 12:3 14:3 16:3
S&P 500
Yr/Yr % Change
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
96:3 98:3 00:3 02:3 04:3 06:3 08:3 10:3 12:3 14:3 16:3
California Personal Income
In Millions
2800
2104
2200
1600
1000 665
400
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
California Personal Income
Yr/Yr % Change
12
6.4
8
4
0 3.3
-4
-3.5
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
California Payroll Employment
In Millions
18
16.0
15.5
16
14 12.5
12
10
'95
'99
'03
'07
'11
'15
California Payroll Employment
Yr/Yr %Change
6
4
2
3.0
0 2.0
-2
-4
-6
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
5.6
5
'07
'09
'11
'13
'15
Civilian Labor Force
California
In Millions
20
19
18
17
16
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Note: Data are Seasonally Adjusted.
Labor Force and Employment
California
In Millions
19
18
Labor Force
Employment
17
16
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Note: Data are Seasonally Adjusted.
Unemployment Rates
California U-3 and U-6
Percent
25
20
15
10
22.1%
U-3
U-3
U-6U-6
12.1%
12.7%
6.3%
5
0
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
California Single-Family
Home Prices
In Thousands of $
600
560.6
448.7
500
400
300 200.7
200
100
'91
'95
'99
'03
'07
'11
'15
California Single-Family
Home Prices
Yr/Yr % Change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
Real GDP
California
Billions of $
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Share of Merchandise Exports
California
Billions of $
Mexico
Canada
China
Japan
Hong Kong
Korea
Taiwan
Netherlands
Germany
U.K.
$26.8
16.2%
10.4%
$17.3
8.7%
$14.4
7.1%
$11.7
5.3%
$8.8
5.3%
$8.7
4.7%
$7.7
3.4% $5.6
3.2% $5.3
3.1% $5.1
0
Source: Wiser, 2015 annual data
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Consumer Sentiment
California
Composite Index
125
100
89.5 87.5
75
84.6 85.1
62.9
91.8
102.5 98.9
97.3
68.6
50
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
California
Manufacturing Job Growth
Annual % Change
3
2
0.5
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-3.1
-4
'10
'11
1.4
0.4
1.4
0.1
CALIFORNIA
'12
'13
'14
'15
Permits – Single & Multi-unit
California
In Thousands
300
Multi
Single
200
100
0
'82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15
Home Price Relative to Rent
Ratio
450
400
428
05:3
ORANGE COUNTY
350
300 231
Historical Mean = 307
250
316
200
98:3 00:3 02:3 04:3 06:3 08:3 10:3 12:3 14:3 16:3
Source: Real Estate Research Council of Southern California
New Auto and Light Truck Sales
Orange County
Thousands of Units
250
200
Autos
Light Trucks
166K
150
130K
100
150K
96K 106K
165K 177K
192K
121K
50
0
'07
'08
'09
'10
Source: Orange County Automotive Dealers Association
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Orange County
Personal Income
Annual % Change
6
3
1.9
3.2
3.9
4.6
1.1
0
-3
-4.3
-6
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11f
'12f
Permits – Single & Multi-unit
Orange County
In Thousands
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
'88 '91
Multi
'94
'97
'00
Single
'03
'06
'09
'12
'15
California Net Migration
and Destination
In Thousands
State
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Net Outflow
Texas
-38.7
-32.5
-41.9
-31.9
-26.2
-32.4
-21.9
-19.7
-34.0
-24.6
-303.8
Arizona
-66.1
-53.6
-32.1
-13.1
-12.9
-13.3
-14.0
-6.0
-11.4
-22.2
-244.7
Nevada
-27.8
-31.0
-23.8
-11.5
-7.4
-7.7
-4.0
-22.0
-18.0
-19.0
-172.2
Oregon
-39.2
-25.9
-18.9
-12.6
-10.8
-13.3
-16.1
-9.1
-11.3
-14.3
-171.5
Washington
-18.0
-19.0
-19.0
-11.4
-9.3
-8.9
-1.9
-11.0
+0.1
-7.2
-105.6
Colorado
-11.0
-18.9
-5.6
-9.9
-4.4
-10.4
-2.0
-7.0
-7.6
-7.0
-83.9
Utah
-6.5
-15.3
-9.8
-8.6
-2.2
-1.5
-9.3
-3.1
-3.2
-0.2
-59.7
Other states
-61.0
-27.2
-24.5
-18.0
-14.0
-41.6
-24.8
+4.6
-10.9
15.3
-202.2
Total Outflow -268.4 -223.4 -175.5 -117.0
-87.2
-129.2
-93.9
-73.3
-96.2
-79.3
-1,343.5