EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
URBANIZATION REPORT
EUROPEAN
URBANIZATION
TRENDS
BBVA Research
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
The urbanization process
in Europe took place
rapidly since 1950, but in
the 90s it moderated its
pace and it will likely be
slower during the next ten
years
The European
urbanization
phenomenon is associated
with higher economic,
technological and digital
development
European cities have
become in important hubs
for education, innovation
and knowledge-based
economies. Digitalization
has been fundamental to
increase competitiveness
There’s still an important
gap between Western and
the Emerging Europe.
Responsive and
accountable policies are
needed to support
sustainable development
Differences between
Western and Eastern
Europe also hold at
regional levels. Smart
cities oriented policies will
foster technological and
sustainable development
2
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Almost three quarters of the European population
lived in urban areas in 2015
And it could rise to just over 80 % by 2050
SHARE OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION BY CONTINENT (1950-2050)
(% total population)
ASIA
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1960
1970
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
100
80
60
40
20
0
Urban area
Source: BBVA Research and UN
Note: See the annex for further information about the methodology
1950
2050
2040
2030
2020
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
2010
OCEANIA
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950
100
80
60
40
20
0
NORTHERN AMERICA
1960
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950
100
80
60
40
20
0
EUROPE
1950
AFRICA
Rural area
3
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
The rapid pace of urbanization in Eastern Europe until
1990 reduced the gap with Western countries
10
0
0
Urban area
Source: BBVA Research and UN
Note: See the annex for further information about the methodology
2050
10
2040
20
2030
20
2020
30
2010
30
2000
40
1990
40
1970
50
1960
50
1950
60
2050
60
2040
70
2030
70
2020
80
2010
80
2000
90
1990
90
1980
100
1970
100
1960
WESTERN EUROPE
1950
EASTERN EUROPE
1980
SHARE OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN EUROPE (1950-2050)
(% total population)
Rural area
4
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Urbanization has shown a positive relation with
income…
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND GDP PER CAPITA
IN EUROPE IN 2000-2015
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND GDP PER CAPITA
IN EUROPE IN 2015
45000
40000
Norway
35000
35000
United
Kingdom
30000
Poland
25000
Spain
20000
Romania
15000
Estonia
10000
Emerging
Europe
5000
GDP per capita (USD PPP)
40000
GDP per capita (USD PPP)
France
Advanced
Europe
Switzerland
Austria
Italy
Germany
25000
Cyprus
20000
50
60
70
Urban population (% of total)
2000
Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN
80
90
Iceland
Sweden
Belgium
France
Finland
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Malta
Slovenia
Czech Republic
15000
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Poland
Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Bosnia and
Macedonia
Russia
Serbia
Herzegovina
Montenegro
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Romania
Belarus
Ukraine
Georgia
Albania
Moldova
Armenia
Croatia
10000
0
40
Denmark
United Kingdom
5000
0
Netherlands
Ireland
30000
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Urban population (% of total)
2015
5
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
… labor productivity…
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND LABOR
PRODUCTIVITY IN EUROPE IN 2000-2015
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND LABOR
PRODUCTIVITY IN EUROPE IN 2015
140000
France
90000
Advanced
Europe
80000
United
Kingdom
Spain
70000
60000
Poland
50000
40000
Romania
Estonia
30000
Labor productivity (USD PPP)
Labor productivity (USD PPP)
100000
Norway
120000
Ireland
Denmark
100000
Switzerland
France
Austria
10000
Italy
Slovenia
60000
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Cyprus
Montenegro
40000
Azerbaijan
Estonia
Latvia
Russia
Bulgaria
Georgia
Albania
20000
Ukraine
Moldova
0
Finland
Germany
United Kingdom
Greece
Lithuania
Serbia
Emerging
Europe
Sweden
Spain
80000
Romania
20000
Netherlands
Armenia
0
40
50
60
70
Urban population (% of total)
2000
Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN
80
90
20
40
60
80
100
Urban population (% of total)
2015
6
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
… as well as with technological adoption
and competitiveness levels
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL
ADOPTION INDEX IN EUROPE IN 2015
(scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND GLOBAL
COMPETITIVENESS INDEX IN EUROPE IN 2015
(scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
6
6.5
6
Switzerland
Portugal
Lithuania
5.5
Germany
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Sweden
Norway
France
Finland
Austria
Denmark
Estonia
Turkey
Slovak Republic
Cyprus Latvia
5
Slovenia
Romania
Montenegro
Croatia
Poland
Armenia
Georgia
4.5
Moldova
Spain
Greece
Bulgaria
Italy
Serbia
Finland
Netherlands
Germany
5.5
Sweden
Norway
Austria
5
Ireland
Denmark
United Kingdom
Belgium
France
Luxembourg
Estonia
Azerbaijan
4.5
Moldova
Ukraine
Iceland
Spain
Portugal
Poland
Romania
Slovenia
4
Albania
4
Belgium
Iceland
Global Competitiveness Index
Technological adoption
Switzerland
Ireland
Czech Republic
Malta
Bulgaria
Italy
Hungary
Georgia
Ukraine
Croatia
Slovak Republic
Armenia
Serbia
Albania
Greece
3.5
3.5
30
50
70
Urban population (% of total)
Source: BBVA Research, Weforum
90
30
50
70
90
Urban population (% of total)
7
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
There’s a significant technological gap between
the advanced and the developing Europe
BUSINESS SOPHISTICATION
7
6
5
4
3
2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7
6
5
4
3
2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ICT USE
7
7
6
ICT use, 1-7 (best)
Firm-level technology absorption,
1-7 (best)
FIRM-LEVEL TECHNOLOGY ABSORPTION
Business sophistication, 1-7 (best)
Availability of latest technologies,
1-7 (best)
AVAILABILITY OF LATEST TECHNOLOGIES
5
4
3
6
5
4
3
2
2
2007
2008
2009
2010
Romania
Source: BBVA Research, Weforum
2011
2012
2013
2014
United Kingdom
2015
2011
2012
Emerging and Developing Europe
2013
2014
2015
Advanced Europe
8
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Higher levels of urbanization also correlates
positively with ICT developments…
LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND
INTERNET USE IN EUROPE IN 2015
ICT DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE IN 2005-2016*
140
Netherlands
Individuals using the Internet (%)
Norway
Denmark
100
Iceland
Finland
Switzerland
90
France
Austria
Germany
Slovenia
Cyprus
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
70
Lithuania
Croatia
Serbia
60
Hungary
Portugal
40
Greece
Poland
Belarus
Italy
Armenia
60
80
Spain
Ireland
20
Montenegro
0
Bulgaria
Romania
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Albania
50
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
40
30
50
70
100
Belgium
Czech Republic
Latvia
80
United Kingdom
Sweden
120
Luxembourg
90
Urban population (% of total)
* Estimate
Source: BBVA Research, ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
Fixed-telephone subscriptions
Fixed broadband subscriptions
Mobile-cellular telephone
subscriptions
Active mobile-broadband
subscriptions
Households with a computer
Households with Internet
access at home
Individuals using the Internet
9
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
… and with the quality of infrastructures and workforce
GLOBAL QUALITY OF
INFRASTRUCTURES IN 2015
(scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
EDUCATION AND TRAINING IN 2015
(scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN 2015
(scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
6.5
6.5
7
Netherlands
Germany
Finland
5.5
5
Georgia
Italy
Armenia
4.5
Greece
4
3.5
Norway Belgium
Denmark
Ireland AustriaGermany
Sweden
Iceland
Portugal
United
Estonia
FranceKingdom
Slovenia Lithuania
Spain
Latvia
Czech
Poland
Slovak
UkraineRepublic
Malta
Greece
Republic Croatia
Italy
Luxembourg
5.5
5
Romania
Montenegro
Hungary
Albania
4.5
Slovak
Republic
Ukraine
Poland
Albania
Bulgaria
Moldova
Switzerland
Switzerland
Georgia
Montenegro
70
90
Urban population (% of total)
Source: BBVA Research, Weforum
110
4.5
4
Slovak Poland
Bulgaria
Republic
Armenia
Romania Albania
Moldova Serbia
2.5
3.5
50
Sweden
Turkey
Iceland
Italy Norway
Ireland
Luxembour
Cyprus
g
Czech
Slovenia
Croatia
Malta
Republic
Lithuania Greece
Latvia
Estonia
Hungary
Georgia
3
Moldova
4
United
Kingdom
Finland
Belgium
Austria
3.5
Serbia
30
Portugal
5
Bulgaria
Serbia
Armenia
3
5.5
Transport infrastructure
Iceland
France
Spain Luxembourg
Portugal
Sweden
Denmark
Belgium
United
Norway
Estonia
Kingdom
Cyprus
Slovenia Ireland Hungary
Croatia
Malta
Lithuania
6
6
Germany
Higher education and training
Quality of overall infrastructure, 1-7 (best)
FinlandNetherlands
Austria
6
Netherlands
Switzerland
6.5
Spain
France
2
30
50
70
Urban population (% of total)
90
30
50
70
90
Urban population (% of total)
10
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
There’s also room for improvement in policy making to reduce
the gap between the advanced and the emerging Europe
INFRASTRUCTURE AND EDUCATION INDICES ACROSS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, 2010-2015
(scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Advanced
Europe
Emerging
Europe
France
Quality of overall infrastructure
United Kingdom
Spain
Higher education and training
Estonia
Poland
Romania
Transport infrastructure
11
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Regional
The role of
Analysis
cities
xxxx
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Evolution of the urban landscape:
increasing role of cities
THE WORLD’S CITIES BY SIZE CLASS OF URBAN SETTLEMENT
2030
1990
City population:
10 mill or more
Source: BBVA Research, UN
Note: See the annex for further information about the methodology
5 to 10 mill
1 to 5 mill
500000 to 1 mill
13
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Higher urban agglomerations are also positively
associated with income growth and labor productivity
URBAN AGGLOMERATION AND GDP PER CAPITA
IN THE EUROPEAN CITIES IN 2015
URBAN AGGLOMERATION AND LABOR
PRODUCTIVITY IN THE EUROPEAN CITIES IN 2015
80000
180
Luxembourg
Labor productivity (USD PPP)
GDP per capita (USD PPP)
70000
Munich
London
Amsterdam
60000
Paris
Warsaw
Bratislava
Milan
50000
Brussels
Hamburg
Dublin
Cologne
Copenhagen
Prague
Stockholm
40000
30000
Vienna
Helsinki
Budapest
Oxford
Roma Rotterdam
Berlin
Madrid
Bilbao
Barcelona
Riga
Sofia Lisboa
Valletta
20000
0
Luxembourg
160
Stuttgart
Bucharest
140
Brussels
120
100
Prague
Dublin
80 Milan
Stuttgart
Oxford
Vienna
Riga
Cologne
London
Paris
Copenhagen
Roma Madrid
Berlin
Barcelona
Lisboa
Valletta
Sofia
60
40
Zagreb
20
Athens
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Urban agglomeration (Inhabitants per km2)
10000
12000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Urban agglomeration (Inhabitants per km2)
14
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Urban areas became major hubs for education,
innovation and knowledge-based economies
INNOVATION
AND R&D
HIGH-TECHNOLOGY
SECTORS
HIGH QUALITY OF
INFRASTRUCTURE
KNOWLEDGE
INTENSIVE JOBS
DIGITAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
Cities
HIGH SKILLED
WORKFORCE
are at the forefront of
technological and
digital developments
HIGH USE
OF INTERNET
15
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
There are still important heterogeneities in
education attainments across European cities
100
12
90
10
80
70
8
60
50
6
40
4
30
20
2
10
Tertiary education
Less than primary, primary and lower secondary education
Milano
Valleta
Zagreb
Roma
Cologne
Amsterdam
Munich
Riga
Stuttgart
Lisboa
Bucharest
Hamburg
Rotterdam
Berlin
Athens
Budapest
Barcelona
Bratislava
Warsaw
Sofia
Vilnius
Vinna
Prague
Luxembourg
Brussels
Dublin
Paris
Madrid
Bilbao
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Helsinki
Oxford
0
London
0
Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education
Employment in technology and knowledge-intensive sectors (rhs)
16
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
… as well as in innovation and the quality of
infrastructures
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT
IN THE EUROPEAN CITIES IN 2015
PUBLIC TRANSPORT SATISFACTION
IN THE EUROPEAN CITIES IN 2015
Total R&D
expenditure
(%GDP)
Number of
High-tech
patent
applications
Proportion of
people who are
satisfied with
public transport
in their city
17
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Differences in the digitalization variables are also
significant at regional levels
DIGITALIZATION LEVELS IN
THE EUROPEAN CITIES IN 2015
Internet daily use
Social networks use
E-banking use
E-Government use
DIGITALIZATION LEVELS BY
EUROPEAN REGIONS IN 2015
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
89%
65%
Nordics
87%
83%
79%
58%
58%
60%
Advanced Europe
74%
56%
58%
55%
Central Europe
68%
49%
PIIGS
40%
48%
63%
Balkans
56%
28%
39%
Internet daily use
Social Networks use
E-banking use
e-Government use
18
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Successful sustainable urbanization requires
responsive and accountable governments
Fostering smart cities oriented policies will be key to attain urban sustainability
HUMAN FACTORS
TECHNOLOGY FACTORS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
Smart
people
Smart
mobility
Smart
living
Smart
economy
Smart
governance
Smart
environment
Social &
Human Capital
Accessibility and
transport
Quality of life
Competitiveness
Participation &
Decision Making
Infrastructure
(ICT)
SMART CITIES
19
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
ANNEX
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
Urban population projections
The estimation and projection of the urban population by the United Nations is based on observed changes in the proportion of the population living
in urban areas by country for the period 1950-2050 in single-year intervals. It relies on the data produced by national sources.
Calculation of the urban proportion during the estimation period involves interpolation between recorded figures and extrapolation back to 1 July 1950
when the earliest recorded figures referred to a later date. The used estimation method projects the most recently observed urban-rural growth difference
by assuming that the proportion urban follows a logistic path that attains a maximum growth rate when the proportion urban reaches 50% and whose
asymptotic value is 100%. Thus, the hypothetical urban-rural growth difference (ℎ𝑟𝑢𝑟), was obtained by regressing the urban-rural growth difference
during any given time interval on the percentage urban at the mid-point of the corresponding time interval, for the 148 countries with 2 million or more
inhabitants in 2013. The resulting regression equation estimated on 1068 observations is as follows:
𝑛 ℎ𝑟𝑢𝑟𝑡
= 0.030588 − 0.020508 ×PU(𝑡+𝑛)
2
Where PU(𝑡+𝑛) is the proportion urban for the mid-point of the intercensal period between time t and t+n.
2
The obtained urban ratios were applied to the estimates and projections of the total national population of each country derived from World Population
Prospects: The 2012 Revision, so as to obtain the corresponding urban population for 1950 to 2050.
Estimates and projections of the population of cities with an estimated population of 300,000 inhabitants or more in 2014 were also calculated for the
period 1950-2030. The procedure is similar to the one described above for the proportion urban. However, in this case, instead of using the urban-rural
growth difference, the interpolation or extrapolation is based on the difference between the growth rate of a city and the growth rate of the population of
the rest of the country. The method used for projecting city populations is also similar to that used for urban populations. The city growth rate over the
most recent intercensal period is modified over the projection period so that it approaches linearly an expected value that is based on the city population
and on the growth rate of the urban population as a whole. The difference between the rate of population growth for the city and that for the total urban
population (𝑟𝑐𝑢) was estimated using the following regression equation, which was fitted to the data relative to 5305 cities located in the 232 countries or
areas analysed (28931 observations):
𝑛 𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑡
= 0.0547143 − 0.003383 × ln(𝐶𝑡 )− 0.3086313 × 𝑛 𝑢𝑡 − 0.001116 × (ln(𝐶𝑡 ) × 𝑛 𝑢𝑡 )
Where 𝐶𝑡 is the population of the city at time t,
two variables.
𝑛 𝑢𝑡
is the growth rate of total urban population, and (ln(𝐶𝑡 ) × 𝑛 𝑢𝑡 ) is the interaction term between these
21
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
BBVA Research
Group Chief Economist
Jorge Sicilia
Macroeconomic Analysis
Financial Systems & Regulation
Rafael Doménech
[email protected]
Santiago Fernández de Lis
[email protected]
Spain & Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
[email protected]
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
[email protected]
Countries Coordination
Olga Cerqueira
[email protected]
United States of America
Nathaniel Karp
[email protected]
Global Financial Markets
Sonsoles Castillo
[email protected]
Digital Regulation
Álvaro Martín
[email protected]
Mexico
Carlos Serrano
[email protected]
Global Modelling &
Long Term Analysis
Julián Cubero
[email protected]
Regulation
María Abascal
[email protected]
Turkey, China & Geopolitics
Álvaro Ortiz
[email protected]
Innovation & Processes
Oscar de las Peñas
[email protected]
Financial Systems
Ana Rubio
[email protected]
Financial Inclusion
David Tuesta
[email protected]
Contact details:
BBVA Research
Ciudad BBVA
28046 Madrid (Spain)
Tel. + 34 91 374 60 00 and + 34 91 537 70 00
Fax. +34 91 374 30 25
[email protected]
www.bbvaresearch.com
Turkey
Álvaro Ortiz
[email protected]
China
Le Xia
[email protected]
South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
[email protected]
Argentina
Gloria Sorensen
[email protected]
Chile
Jorge Selaive
[email protected]
Colombia
Juana Téllez
[email protected]
Peru
Hugo Perea
[email protected]
Venezuela
Julio Pineda
[email protected]
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43/F Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street Central
Hong Kong
Tel: +852 2582 3111
E-mail: [email protected]
22
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
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23
EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
This report has been produced by
BBVA Research Team
Chief Economist,
Asia, MENA & Geostrategy
Álvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca
[email protected]
Lead Economist,
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
[email protected]
Tomasa Rodrigo
CONTACT DETAILS
BBVA Research
Ciudad BBVA
28046 Madrid (Spain)
Tel. + 34 91 374 60 00 and
+ 34 91 537 70 00
Fax. +34 91 374 30 25
[email protected]
www.bbvaresearch.com
[email protected]
Manuel Cabezas
[email protected]
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EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS
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