Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Aquatic Botany journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/aquabot Changing eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) characteristics in a highly eutrophic temperate coastal lagoon Benjamin Fertig a,∗ , Michael J. Kennish a , Gregg P. Sakowicz b a b Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA Rutgers University Marine Field Station, 800 Great Bay Boulevard, Tuckerton, NJ 08087, USA a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 1 March 2011 Received in revised form 30 August 2012 Accepted 7 September 2012 Available online 21 September 2012 Keywords: Seagrass decline Zostera marina Plant characteristics Biotic indicators Eutrophication Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary a b s t r a c t Previous investigations of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) beds in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary, New Jersey (USA) revealed a significant decline in plant biomass associated with ongoing nitrogen enrichment of the system and declines in light availability. Here, we update trends in eelgrass characteristics (aboveground and belowground biomass, shoot density, percent cover, blade length) for 2008–2010 and compare these to previous datasets (2004–2006). Analysis of quadrat, core, and hand samples collected at 120 transect stations in 4 disjunct eelgrass beds of the estuary showed a distinct, continued reduction in Zostera biomass. In 2010, Z. marina biomass decreased to its lowest level ever recorded in the estuary (mean aboveground biomass = 7.7 g DW m−2 ; mean belowground biomass = 27.0 g DW m−2 ). Reduced biomass and other characteristics indicated that eelgrass beds had not recovered from previous reductions observed 2004–2006. The rate of decline was related to nutrient loading and associated symptoms of eutrophication. Additionally, the rate of degradation changed over time. The decline in plant parameters was evident in all of the eelgrass beds investigated, indicating that an estuary-wide stressor was responsible. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Eelgrass meadows have been declining in many estuaries around the world as human population growth and development increased in coastal watersheds (Orth et al., 2006; Short et al., 2006; Duarte et al., 2009; Waycott et al., 2009). Nutrient and sediment loading from the watersheds, together with habitat loss and alteration in the estuarine water bodies themselves, have significantly impacted eelgrass subsystems (Larkum et al., 2006; Ralph et al., 2006). Implications of degraded eelgrass areal cover include elimination of habitat for bay scallops (Argopecten irradians), hard clams (Mercenaria mercenaria), and other species, and can be linked to changes in ecosystem structure and function driven by bottom-up effects. Nitrogen over-enrichment is thought to cause significant disruption of ecosystem structure and function (Nixon, 1995; Nixon et al., 2001; Kennish et al., 2007a) including promotion of nuisance and toxic algal blooms (phytoplankton and macroalgae), seagrass epiphytes, all of which reduce light availability (McGlathery et al., 2007; Paerl et al., 2003, 2009). Light reductions have been linked with lower shoot densities and biomass, reduced depth penetration, slower growth rates, stunted morphology, and higher ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 301 785 7614; fax: +1 732 932 8578. E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Fertig). 0304-3770/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aquabot.2012.09.004 mortalities (Lee et al., 2007; Ralph et al., 2007; Ochieng et al., 2010; Olesen, 1996; Olesen and Sand Jensen, 1993). Long-term symptoms of eutrophication in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary include low dissolved oxygen (in the central and northern segments), harmful algal blooms, declining eelgrass populations, heavy epiphyte loading, macroalgae blooms, loss of essential habitat (eelgrass and shellfish beds), and depleted harvestable bay scallop (A. irradians) and hard clam (M. mercenaria) fisheries (Kennish et al., 2007b, 2008a, 2011). Indeed, there is a significant positive relationship between water column total nitrogen concentration and total nitrogen loading by subwatershed (Kennish and Fertig, 2012). There is growing concern that escalating eutrophication will result in severe, long-term degradation of eelgrass populations (Duarte et al., 2009; Kennish et al., 2007a, 2010). Bologna et al. (2000) documented significant losses of eelgrass in the estuary from the mid-1970s to 2000, which may have reduced the areal distribution of the beds by 30–60%, most significantly in Little Egg Harbor. If symptoms of eutrophication are indeed affecting eelgrass populations in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary, then changes in eelgrass characteristics should be observed over time, potentially at different rates as ecological or physiological stress changes. The objective of this study was to identify if (and if so, how) seagrass condition in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary responded over time to symptoms of eutrophication. This study updates previously reported trends (Kennish, 2001a,b; Kennish B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 71 Unlike river dominated estuaries and coastal waters that drain large, inter-jurisdictional watersheds (e.g. Billen and Garnier, 2007; Howarth et al., 2011; Kemp et al., 2005; Radach and Patsch, 2007; Rabalais, 2002; Seitzinger et al., 2010), the small watershed (1730 km2 ) of Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor coastal lagoon estuary lies entirely in one state (New Jersey) and mainly receives non-point nutrients (e.g. residential fertilizers) via both overland and groundwater (Kennish, 2001a; Kennish and Townsend, 2007). Point sources (wastewater treatment plants) from the watershed discharge to the Atlantic Ocean (Kennish, 2001b). Eelgrass beds form an essential habitat in the estuary and are an important indicator of water and sediment quality conditions. Seagrass in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary consists of mixed beds of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) and widgeon grass (Ruppia maritima). Eelgrass comprises more than 95% of the seagrass habitat, and it overwhelmingly predominates in the southern and central segments of the estuary from Tuckerton Creek to Toms River (Kennish et al., 2010). Widgeon grass dominates the beds in the northern segment of the estuary (Toms River to Metedeconk River), which is characterized by lower salinities. 2.2. Sampling design Fig. 1. Study area exhibiting 120 seagrass sampling stations along 12 transects in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary. Inset shows the location of the estuary with respect to the State of New Jersey. From Kennish et al. (2010). et al., 2007a, 2008a, 2010, 2011, 2012) by comparing eelgrass characteristics in 2008–2010 vs. 2004–2006 with respect to increasing eutrophication. Specifically, we investigated eelgrass biomass (aboveground and belowground), shoot density, areal cover, and blade length across the estuary as affected by nutrient loading. 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Study area Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor, located along the central New Jersey coastline (USA), is a highly eutrophic coastal lagoon (Kennish, 2007a,b, 2009; Kennish et al., 2007a,b). Barnegat Bay and Little Egg Harbor are back-bay basins that form an irregular contiguous lagoonal system ∼70 km long, 2–6 km wide, and mean 1.5 m deep (Fig. 1). Together they have a net surface area of 280 km2 and a volume of 3.54 × 108 m3 (Kennish, 2001a,b). The adjoining Barnegat Bay watershed covers an area of 1730 km2 . A total of ∼575,000 people now inhabit the surrounding watershed year-round, with highest densities in the northern region. Similar to many coastal lagoons in the mid-Atlantic region, the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary is affected by a burgeoning human population in adjoining coastal watershed areas (Kennish, 2009). The population expands to 1.2 million people during the summer tourist season when nutrient enrichment also peaks. With population growth in the watershed expected to increase from the current number of ∼575,000 year-round residents (>1.2 million people during the summer tourist season) to ∼850,000 people projected at buildout (∼50% increase in year-round residents), anthropogenic pressures will continue to mount, including impervious cover and other land surface alteration in the watershed, which will also partition habitats, leading to a greater input of nutrients and other pollutants to the estuary. A north-to-south gradient of decreasing human population density and development occurs in the watershed, as does a north-to-south gradient of decreasing nutrient loading in the estuary (Hunchak-Kariouk and Nicholson, 2001; Seitzinger et al., 2001; Wieben and Baker, 2009). Quadrat, core, and hand sampling was conducted over the June to November period in 2008–2010 targeting the same eelgrass beds and transects sampled in Barnegat Bay (∼1550 ha) and Little Egg Harbor (∼1700 ha) during the 2004–2006 period (Kennish et al., 2008a,b, 2010). Specifically, sampling during 2004–2010 was conducted along 12 transects in four disjunct eelgrass beds, and each transect consisted of 10 sampling stations (Fig. 1). Each station was permanently located with a Differential Global Positioning System (Trimble® GeoXTTM handheld unit). Note that transects 1–6 were sampled in 2004, transects 7–12 were sampled in 2005, and transects 1–12 were sampled in 2006 and 2008–2010. Sampling efforts were based on the SeagrassNet monitoring and sampling protocols of Short et al. (2002). The main modification of methods was establishing transects perpendicular to shore rather than parallel, to identify differences along a clearly defined depth gradient. Eelgrass samples were collected during each of 3 time periods (June–July, August–September, and October–November) in all years. The following eelgrass characteristics were recorded on all sampling dates at each sampling station: aboveground and belowground biomass, shoot density, blade length, and areal cover. 2.3. Quadrat sampling Based on the field sampling methods of Short et al. (2002), a 0.25-m2 metal quadrat was haphazardly tossed at the sampling stations to obtain measurements of eelgrass and macroalgae areal cover. A diver estimated the percentage of the quadrat covered by eelgrass and macroalgae in increments of 5 along a scale of 0–100. For macroalgae, areal cover of 60–70% was considered ‘Pre-Bloom’, 70–80% was considered ‘Early Bloom’, and >80% was considered ‘Full Bloom’ conditions, according to methods of Kennish et al. (2011). The diver then visually inspected the eelgrass bed within the quadrat for occurrence of grazing, boat scarring, macroalgae, epiphytic loading, wasting disease, bay scallops, and hard clams. Each sampling station was also imaged using a digital camera to validate the diver observations. Subsequently, 5 replicate eelgrass blades were collected from within the quadrat, and blade lengths were measured. 2.4. Core sampling Coring methods also followed those of Short et al. (2002) using a 10-cm diameter PVC coring device to collect the eelgrass 72 B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 samples within the quadrat, with care taken not to cut or damage the aboveground plant tissues. The diver-deployed corer extended deep enough in the sediments to extract all belowground fractions (roots and rhizomes). Each core was placed in a 3-mm × 5-mm mesh bag and rinsed to separate plant material from the sediment. After removing the eelgrass from the mesh bag, the sample was placed in a labeled bag and stored on ice in a closed container prior to transport to the Rutgers University Marine Field Station (RUMFS) in Tuckerton for laboratory analysis. 2.5. Laboratory analysis In the laboratory, the eelgrass samples were carefully sorted and separated into aboveground (shoots) and belowground (roots and rhizomes) components. The density of eelgrass shoots was then determined. The aboveground and belowground fractions were subsequently oven dried at 50–60 ◦ C for a minimum of 48 h. The dry weight biomass (g DW m−2 ) of each fraction was then measured to the third decimal place. 2.6. Physical and chemical measurements Physical and chemical measurements made in Barnegat BayLittle Egg Harbor Estuary during 2004–2010 were compared to eelgrass characteristics to quantify changes in eelgrass characteristics in relation to changes in water quality condition (e.g. eutrophication). Water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and depth were recorded each sampling time (June/July, August/September, and October/November of 2004–2006, 2008–2010) at each station prior to biotic sampling at each station. These data were collected at a uniform depth (∼10 cm) above the sediment–water interface using either a handheld YSI 600 XL datasonde coupled with a handheld YSI 650 MDS display unit, an automated YSI 6600 unit (equipped with a turbidity probe), or a YSI 600 XLM automated datalogger. Secchi depth was subsequently recorded. Water samples (N = 72) were also collected at all 12 transects in 2008 to determine nutrient concentrations. Laboratory analysis of the nutrients followed standard methods, with samples analyzed using a Lachat QuikChem FIA+ ® autoanalyzer. Additional physical and chemical measurements in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary (61 stations throughout the estuary) were extracted from long-term (1989–2011) quarterly water quality monitoring data available from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (http://www.epa.gov/storet/dbtop.html). 2.7. Statistical analysis Temporal and spatial changes were tested across all 120 stations with three-way ANOVA (transects, years, and sampling periods were class variables) for each water quality metric (salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, and pH) and eelgrass characteristic (aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, shoot density, blade length, and areal cover by Zostera). Unless otherwise noted, the cutoff for statistical significance was p < 0.05. Effects of physical and chemical variables on Z. marina characteristics were determined with multivariate analysis (MANOVA, Proc GLM, SAS Inc.) to test (1) overall effects, (2) differences between transects, and (3) differences between Little Egg Harbor (transects 1–6) and Barnegat Bay (transects 7–12). A principal component analysis was conducted on the multivariate regression predicted values through redundancy analysis (Proc Transreg, tstandard=z, method=redundancy, SAS Inc.) with the physical and chemical variables as independent variables and Z. marina characteristics as dependent variables to test for covariance and collinearity between physical/chemical variables and Z. marina characteristics. Coefficients for predicting independent variables from the Table 1 Mean (standard deviation) water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and Secchi depth at survey stations in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary during sampling periods in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Parameter Sampling period June–July August–September October–November Temperature ( C) 2008 23.4 (3.6) 2009 21.8 (1.0) 2010 23.4 (2.3) 24.0 (1.1) 25.8 (1.2) 25.6 (1.6) 19.08 (2.2) 14.55 (2.7) 16.48 (1.8) Salinity (ppt) 2008 2009 2010 26.4 (3.4) 27.5 (0.6) 26.9 (4.2) 28.2 (2.7) 26.0 (4.1) 29.3 (2.5) 26.17 (5.6) 26.72 (3.9) 27.95 (3.0) Dissolved oxygen (mg L−1 ) 2008 7.3 (1.1) 2009 8.3 (1.3) 2010 8.4 (1.1) 6.6 (1.0) 7.9 (7.3) 7.1 (1.0) 7.27 (1.1) 9.74 (8.5) 9.36 (0.7) pH 2008 2009 2010 8.1 (0.2) 8.0 (0.2) 8.2 (0.2) 8.0 (0.3) 7.9 (0.2) 8.0 (0.1) 8.00 (0.2) 8.00 (0.2) 8.08 (0.1) Secchi depth (m) 2008 1.2 (0.3) 2009 1.3 (0.3) 2010 1.2 (0.3) 1.1 (0.2) 1.1 (0.3) 1.0 (0.2) 1.28 (0.4) 1.35 (0.2) 1.19 (0.3) ◦ redundancy variables are plotted on top of the scores for the redundancy axes. Differences in the frequency of macroalgal blooms between 2004–2006 and 2008–2010 were tested with chi square analysis (Proc Freq, SAS Inc.) by bloom condition (‘Early Bloom’: percent cover 70–80%, ‘Full Bloom’: percent cover > 80%). We hypothesize that as symptoms of eutrophication (i.e. concentrations of total nitrogen, chlorophyll a, and dissolved oxygen) increase, eelgrass characteristics (i.e. biomass) will become degraded (i.e. have decreased values). 3. Results 3.1. Physical and chemical conditions Strong seasonality was observed, as is generally the case for temperate Zostera beds, and a significant sampling period effect was generally obvious for physical and chemical conditions (Table 1). The contribution of seasonality to variance in seagrass was separated out (Table 2) so that the remaining effect of other factors (year, transect) could be examined. Sampling period explained 68% of the variance associated with temperature, but spatial location (transect) explained 68% of the variance associated with salinity (due to proximity to Toms River and the inlets which provide freshwater input and oceanic exchange, respectively). Most variance of dissolved oxygen (82%) and pH (73%) was not explained by either spatial or temporal effects (Table 2). Dissolved oxygen concentrations were generally above 5.0 mg L−1 . 3.2. Eelgrass characteristics 3.2.1. Eelgrass biomass Eelgrass biomass declined consistently during both 2004–2006 and 2008–2010 periods and overall from 2004 to 2010, and biomass in 2010 was the lowest recorded for Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (Fig. 2). Aboveground and belowground biomass declined significantly (p < 0.01, Table 2) from 2008 to 2009 to 2010 (Fig. 2). Within years, only belowground biomass declined over June to November in 2008 (main effect, p < 0.01, Table 2), but both aboveground and belowground eelgrass biomass decreased over time in 2009 (main B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 Table 2 Three-way ANOVA testing effect of Year, Sampling Period, and Transect and their interactions on temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and Z. marina aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, shoot density, blade height, and areal cover. Degrees of freedom (df), percent sum of squares (% SS), and p value (p < 0.05 in bold) are reported. Variable Water quality Temperature Salinity Effect Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error Dissolved oxygen Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error pH Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error Z. marina Aboveground biomass Belowground biomass Shoot density Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error df % SS 2 2 11 4 22 22 44 2 68 1 6 4 10 7 963 2 2 2 11 4 22 22 38 4 3 68 2 3 3 2 916 19 2 2 11 4 22 22 38 2 2 3 0 3 3 6 914 82 2 2 11 4 22 22 38 1 1 5 0 5 5 8 913 73 2 2 11 4 22 22 44 6 1 8 0 6 3 3 854 75 2 2 11 4 22 22 44 4 2 11 0 4 3 4 854 72 2 2 11 4 22 22 44 3 0 6 3 12 7 8 639 64 Table 2 (Continued) Variable Effect Blade height Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error Areal cover Year Sampling Period Transect Year × Sampling Period Transect × Year Transect × Sampling Period Transect × Year × Sampling Period Error p <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0002 <0.0001 0.0019 0.9072 0.0251 0.1557 0.0113 0.0027 0.0007 <0.0001 0.1923 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0024 <0.0001 0.2673 <0.0001 0.0766 0.9112 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.3377 0.0013 0.0112 0.3993 <0.0001 0.3468 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0038 73 df % SS 2 2 11 4 22 22 41 9 1 34 3 6 2 3 455 36 2 2 11 4 22 22 44 1 2 11 2 6 3 3 971 73 p <0.0001 0.0352 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.1299 0.5694 0.0041 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0044 0.7285 effect, p < 0.01, Table 2). Belowground biomass was higher than aboveground biomass (ANOVA, p < 0.01, Fig. 2). Eelgrass biomass was generally low along transects 1, 2 (southern segment) and 12 (central segment) and consistently high along transects 5, 9, and 11 (Fig. 1). The spatial factor (transect) explained 8% of variance for aboveground biomass and 11% of variance for belowground biomass, both of which were higher than for any other factor (Table 2). The rate of decline in aboveground and belowground eelgrass biomass was significantly sharper during 2004–2006 than in 2008–2010. Regression analysis indicated a slope of −23.8 g m−2 yr−1 (intercept = 47,765, R2 = 0.14, p < 0.01) during 2004–2006 and −8.7 g m−2 yr−1 (intercept = 17,496, R2 = 0.04, p < 0.01) during 2008–2010. A t-test comparing these slopes showed a significant difference (t = −6.13, p < 0.01), indicating that the decline slowed significantly in the latter three years, as can be seen in Fig. 3d–i. In contrast, the slopes for belowground biomass did not differ (t = 0.25, p = 0.80) though the decline continued (slope = −17.0 during 2004–2006 and −18.4 during 2008–2010). 3.2.2. Eelgrass shoot density Though biomass declined from 2004 to 2010, the number of shoots (a proxy for individuals in the population) generally increased from 2004 (189 shoots) to 2010 (596 shoots). Timing of peak mean eelgrass shoot density (August–September in 2008, June–July in 2009) coincided with peak biomass (aboveground in 2008, both aboveground and belowground in 2009). Shoot density was much lower during the summer-fall period in 2009 than in 2008 (Table 3). The highest amount of variation (12%) was explained by the significant interaction (three-way ANOVA, p < 0.01) transect × year (Table 2). 3.2.3. Eelgrass blade length Transect explained 34% of the variation (Table 2) in eelgrass blade length. Though only explaining 9% of the variation, mean lengths of eelgrass blades generally decreased from 2008 (30.8 ± 13.1 cm) to 2009 (22.7 ± 12.1 cm) to 2010 (21.6 ± 12.2 cm) (Tables 2 and 3). By comparison, in 2004 the mean blade lengths of eelgrass were 34.0 ± 10.9 cm in June–July, 32.2 ± 7.2 cm in August–September, and 31.8 ± 8.4 cm in October–November, and during 2005 the mean blade lengths of eelgrass amounted to 32.7 ± 17.6 cm in June–July, 25.9 ± 14.9 cm in August–September, and 28.5 ± 14.7 cm in October–November. Somewhat lower mean blade length measurements were recorded in the heavily impacted year of 2006 during June–July (19.4 cm), August–September (18.7 cm), and October–November (18.6 cm). B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 Biomass (g dry weight m-2) 74 350 250 150 50 No Data J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Belowground biomass Aboveground biomass Fig. 2. Aboveground and belowground seagrass biomass values in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary during the spring–fall sampling periods from 2004 to 2010 (except 2007). eelgrass in 2009 decreased from 31 ± 36% in June–July to 27 ± 35% in August–September, and then decreased greatly to 15 ± 19% in October–November. Macroalgae ‘Early Blooms’ (70–80%) occurred twice during 2004–2006 and 17 times during 2008–2010 (chi square p < 0.01). Macroalgae ‘Full Blooms’ (>80%) occurred 12 times during 2004–2006 and 24 times during 2008–2010 (chi square p < 0.05, Fig. 4). 10 a) 6 4 2 0 0 200 400 Dissolved Oxygen (mg L-1) 8 Dissolved Oxygen (mg L-1) Chlorophyll a (µg L-1) 3.2.4. Eelgrass and macroalgae areal cover Transect explained 6% of the variation in eelgrass areal cover (Table 2). The percent cover of eelgrass in 2008 was similar to that observed in previous years of sampling (2004–2006). In 2008, the percent cover of eelgrass was lowest in June–July (22 ± 30%) and October–November (22 ± 31%), and highest in August–September (30 ± 36%). By comparison, the percent cover of 10 b) 8 6 4 2 0 600 0 200 Total Nitrogen (µg L-1) 400 40 20 40 20 400 600 0 2 60 40 4 6 0 60 40 400 Shoot Density (shoots m-2) 2 600 4 6 8 10 i) 80 60 40 20 0 0 200 20 100 h) 80 0 0 40 Dissolved Oxygen (mg L-1) 20 20 f) 60 8 Biomass (g m-2) Biomass (g m-2) Biomass (g m-2) 100 80 8 80 -1 Total Nitrogen (µg L ) g) 4 6 2 Chlorophyll a (µg L-1) Chlorophyll a (µg L ) -1 100 0 0 0 200 0 100 e) 60 0 0 2 600 Biomass (g m-2) 60 4 2008-2010 80 Biomass (g m-2) Biomass (g m-2) 100 d) 80 6 Total Nitrogen (µg L-1) 2004-2006 100 c) 8 0 10 20 30 40 Areal Cover (%) 0 10 20 30 40 Light Availability (%) 2004-2006 2008-2010 Aboveground biomass Belowground biomass Fig. 3. Variation of water quality and biological metrics for 2004–2006 (circles) and 2008–2010 (triangles). Eelgrass biomass is divided into aboveground (black) and belowground (white) components. Plots include chlorophyll a vs. total nitrogen (a), dissolved oxygen vs. total nitrogen (b), dissolved oxygen vs. chlorophyll a (c), eelgrass biomass vs. total nitrogen (d), eelgrass biomass vs. chlorophyll a (e), eelgrass biomass vs. dissolved oxygen (f), eelgrass biomass vs. eelgrass shoot density (g), eelgrass biomass vs. eelgrass areal percent cover (h), and eelgrass biomass vs. light availability (i). B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 Table 3 Mean (standard deviation) shoot density, blade length, and percent areal cover of Z. marina in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary, 2008–2010. Sampling period (months) Shoot density (shoots m−2 ) Blade length (cm) Areal cover (%) 2008 June–July August–September October–November 242 (435) 414 (570) 264 (465) 29 (12) 22 (14) 31 (18) 22 (30) 30 (36) 22 (31) 2009 June–July August–September October–November 347 (536) 265 (407) 155 (325) 22 (13) 25 (12) 22 (11) 31 (36) 27 (35) 15 (19) 2010 June–July August–September October–November 665 (460) 377 (380) 440 (708) 22 (13) 20 (11) 23 (13) 28 (36) 21 (35) 9 (21) 3.3. Multivariate analyses of covariance and collinearity Multivariate (MANOVA) tests of overall effects of physical and chemical variables on Z. marina characteristics using the Wilks’ Lambda criteria were statistically significant for temperature (F5,255 = 7.54, p < 0.01), salinity (F5,255 = 8.17, p < 0.01), dissolved oxygen concentration (F5,255 = 3.96, p < 0.01), pH (F5,255 = 2.41, p < 0.05), and Secchi depth (F5,255 = 6.21, p < 0.01). Follow up multivariate comparisons using Wilks’ Lambda statistic indicated that there were significant differences between transects (F55,1183.9 = 2.83, p < 0.01). Specifically, the average for Little Egg Harbor was significantly different from the average for Barnegat Bay (F5,255 = 5.03, p < 0.01). RDA indicated little separation between transects (Fig. 5a), though transects 10, 11, and 12 tended to group at the lower salinity, lower dissolved oxygen end of the spectrum. Transects 7, 1, and 4 tended to be on the higher salinity end of the spectrum (Fig. 5b), which corresponds to their proximity to the inlets (Fig. 1). There is clearer temporal separation by both year (Fig. 5b) and time period (Fig. 5c). Temperatures were lower and salinity was higher in 2004 and 2010, while 2008 was warmer and less saline. During October–November, dissolved oxygen and pH are highest, while temperatures are cooler compared to other time periods. 75 4. Discussion Here, we present evidence that eelgrass condition in Barnegat Bay has declined substantially (Fig. 2), that the rate of decline is related to nutrient loading, algal shading, and associated symptoms of eutrophication (Figs. 3–6), and finally that this degradation rate has changed over time (Table 2). Trends in eelgrass characteristics presented here update previous studies in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary, New Jersey, USA (Kennish et al., 2008a,b). The current study focuses on a small set of plant characteristics and thus is narrower than those that use suites of seagrass morphometrics (Duarte et al., 1994), Leslie table matrices (Uzeta et al., 2008), or mortality estimates (Ebert et al., 2002) to derive demographic histories and dynamics. Eelgrass biomass and areal cover generally decreased through 2010, but the decline in plant biomass, a key water quality indicator (Fig. 2, Burkholder et al., 2007; Moore, 2004, 2009; Duarte et al., 2006; Lamote and Dunton, 2006; Moore and Short, 2006; Kennish et al., 2008a,b, 2009, 2010), was most marked (Fig. 2). A general decline in plant parameters (except blade length) was evident from 2008 to 2010 (Table 3) corresponding with temporal separation (yearly and seasonally, Fig. 5) of environmental parameters suggests their importance to seagrass condition. Trends of eelgrass characteristics indicated that eelgrass biomass (Figs. 2 and 3) had yet to recover by 2010 from the decline of plant abundance and biomass observed in 2006 (Kennish et al., 2009, 2010). However, the rate of decline of eelgrass biomass during 2008–2010 was slower than that of 2004–2006 (Fig. 2), perhaps because less was left to be lost. Thus, biomass may be reaching a new, lower, steady state (Beisner et al., 2003) though prediction of future condition is speculative at best, as it could either improve, as has been observed subsequent to improvements in water quality or wasting disease (Plus et al., 2003; Frederiksen et al., 2004), or it may be difficult to attain previously observed levels (e.g. Duarte et al., 2009; Martin et al., 2010; Krause-Jensen et al., 2012). Though long-term monitoring was not started early enough to observe the beginning of the initial decline prior to 2004, the pattern of biomass decline with increasing nutrient concentrations (Fig. 3d) is similar to load-decline relationships described in the literature (Cloern, 2001; Nixon, 1995; Burkholder et al., 2007; Deegan, 2002; Tomasko et al., 1996) and nitrogen concentrations in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor are proportional with nitrogen loading from subwatersheds (Fig. 6; Kennish and Fertig, 2012). Dissolved inorganic nitrogen 16 Early Bloom (70-79% cover) 14 Full Bloom (80-100% cover) Frequency 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 No Data J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N J-J A-S O-N 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fig. 4. Frequency of macroalgae cover at ‘Early Bloom’ = 70–79%, and ‘Full Bloom’ = > 80% conditions. Frequencies observed during June–July (J-J), August–September (A-S), and October–November (O-N) during 2004–2006 and 2008–2010. No data are available during 2007. 76 B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 Fig. 5. Redundancy analysis (RDA) with physical and chemical variables as independent variables and Z. marina characteristics as dependent variables. Redundancy scores are plotted by (a) transect (1–12 indicated by color), (b) year (2004–2010 excepting 2007 by color), and (c) time period (June–July, August–September, and October–November by color). Coefficients for predicting independent variables from the redundancy variables are plotted (gray lines). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.) concentration ranges measured in this study were consistent with of those of Seitzinger et al. (2001), who recorded highest nitrogen concentrations in the northern estuary. The trend of eelgrass decline has been estuary-wide, signaling a response to a broad scale stressor that adversely affects plant condition across the system. Vulnerability of eelgrass beds to nutrient loading may vary across systems. Previous and current reductions in areal extent of Z. marina beds (30–60%, Bologna et al., 2000; Table 3) were a third of areal reductions observed in Waquoit Bay (80–100% bed area, Hauxwell et al., 2003), but loading to Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary (2.5 kg N ha−1 yr−1 ; Wieben and Baker, 2009) was 4–8% that of Waquoit Bay (30–60 kg N ha−1 yr−1 ; Hauxwell et al., 2003). The pattern of decline in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor contrasts from that of Waquoit Bay in that shoot density and bed area declined exponentially in Waquoit Bay, while in Barnegat BayLittle Egg Harbor it was biomass that declined exponentially while shoot density did not change (or even increased), leading to an overall decline in biomass per shoot (Fig. 3). Long-term monitoring is important in documenting broad changes, including recolonization after complete die-offs (e.g. Plus et al., 2003). While we previously reported that a ‘Nutrient Pollution Indicator’, defined by Lee et al. (2004) as the ratio of Z. marina leaf nitrogen content (%N) to area normalized leaf mass (mg dry wt cm−2 ), did not reliably indicate estuarine eutrophic status or relate to nutrient loading from the watershed (Kennish and Fertig, 2012), the more direct measurements of Z. marina characteristics reported here (e.g. biomass, shoot density, etc.) responded spatially to changes in nutrient loading and Table 4 Light availability (%) ± standard deviation in transects 1–6 (Little Egg Harbor) and transects 7–12 (Barnegat Bay), 2004–2010. Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Light availability (%) Transects 1–6 Transects 7–12 9.6 ± 6.2 4.1 ± 3.9 7.0 ± 14.7 nd 5.6 ± 11.2 32.4 ± 7.7 31.9 ± 6.4 16.7 ± 17.1 21.8 ± 19.9 16.2 ± 18.7 nd 21.2 ± 7.8 24.1 ± 7.1 23.8 ± 7.4 symptoms associated with eutrophication (Figs. 3–5; Table 2). A GIS spatial comparison analysis by Lathrop et al. (2001) suggested a contraction of the eelgrass beds to shallow subtidal areas (<2 m) during this 25-year time period due to diminished light availability in response to phytoplankton and macroalgal blooms, epiphytic overgrowth, and other factors. However, Lathrop and Haag (Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis, Rutgers University, personal communication, 2010), conducting more recent aerial surveys (2003 and 2009) of eelgrass distribution in the estuary, found an expansion of the bed boundaries by 69 ha during a time span when biomass and other plant characteristics were dramatically declining. Short (2007) recently observed a similar pattern of eelgrass distribution and plant characteristics in Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire. Eelgrass beds appear to be thinning out, as biomass shoot−1 declined from 2004 to 2010 (Fig. 3), and we speculate that this may decrease opportunities for future fertilization and/or seed dispersal. Since 2004, the condition of eelgrass beds in the estuary has declined with increasing nitrogen loading from the Barnegat Bay watershed (Figs. 2–3, Wieben and Baker, 2009) and associated eutrophication (Fig. 6; Nixon, 1995; Seitzinger et al., 2001; Bricker et al., 2007; Kennish et al., 2007a, 2010). Eelgrass degradation in relation to eutrophication and algal shading in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (Fig. 3) also affects Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire (biomass, shoot density, canopy height, leaf area; Beem and Short, 2009), and Chincoteague Bay (seagrass coverage 2001–2004 by Wazniak et al., 2007, seagrass coverage 2001–2007 by Orth et al., 2010). System eutrophy (Figs. 3a–c and 4) and degradation of eelgrass characteristics in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (Figs. 2 and 3, Table 3; Kennish et al., 2007b, 2008a, 2010) have progressed in concert with nutrient loading from surface water of the watershed from 390,000 kg N yr−1 in 1998 (Hunchak-Kariouk and Nicholson, 2001) to 431,000 kg N yr−1 in 2008 (Wieben and Baker, 2009) and watershed development (18% in 1972 to ∼33% in 2010, Lathrop and Bognar, 2001; Richard G. Lathrop, Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis, Rutgers University, 2010). Currently, 66% of the total nitrogen load to the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary derives from surface runoff of the watershed, up from 54% of the total nitrogen load in 1998 (Wieben and Baker, 2009). The total nitrogen load is expected to increase with increasing development B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 77 Fig. 6. Long-term total nitrogen concentrations for Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary: 1989–2000 on top, 2001–2010 on bottom; June–July on the left, August–September in center, and October–November on the right. Decadal means (symbols) are overlaid atop krig interpolation. Concentrations increase from green to red. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.) of the watershed, unless aggressive management actions are implemented. Yet projections indicate that impervious surface cover of the Barnegat Bay watershed will increase to 12% of the land area at buildout (Lathrop and Conway, 2001). Nutrient loading and symptoms of eutrophication (e.g. increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations) classically impact seagrass through reductions in light availability (Burkholder et al., 2007; Ralph et al., 2007; Lee et al., 2007). Decreases in overall light availability (Table 4) in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary were contributed to increases in chlorophyll a (Fig. 3). As chlorophyll a increases, Z. marina biomass (both aboveground and belowground) increases until ∼5 g L−1 chlorophyll a, beyond which Z. marina biomass decreases (Fig. 3e). Yet chlorophyll a concentrations were much less than reported impacts on seagrass elsewhere in the literature (Wazniak et al., 2007). Further, eelgrass may be able to survive increases in turbidity by growing either up or horizontally (Vermaat et al., 1997), but there is limited capacity for this in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor due to shallow depths and benthic substrate heterogeneity (Fig. 1; Psuty and Silveira, 2009). Observations of physical–chemical and nutrient parameters (Table 1, Figs. 3 and 6) input into empirical-based relationships and models (Kemp et al., 2004) indicate that estimated light availability (Table 4) in 2004–2006 (12.6 ± 13.4% of surface irradiance) and 2008–2010 (23.2 ± 7.9% of surface irradiance) were greater than the minimum light requirements (5–20% of surface irradiance, Dennison et al., 1993), but generally less than optimal light requirements for Z. marina (approaching 25% of incident radiation; Orth et al., 2006). 78 B. Fertig et al. / Aquatic Botany 104 (2013) 70–79 Increased nitrogen in shallow water systems with adequate water clarity can lead to the replacement of eelgrass plants by opportunistic macroalgae (e.g. Ulva and Enteromorpha), filamentous epiphytic macroalgae, and benthic microalgae which require lower light intensities for survival, thus outcompeting and shading over the eelgrass, resulting in negative feedback (Hily et al., 2004; McGlathery et al., 2007). Macroalgae blooms (mainly Ulva lactuca) were commonly observed in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (Kennish et al., 2011), increasing in frequency from 2004–2006 to 2008–2010 (Fig. 4) and thus diminishing light available to seagrass leaves. Blooms of sheet-like macroalgae can contribute to transfer of nutrients to sediments (Boyer and Fong, 2005). Resulting shifts in the composition of bottom-up controls also often resonates through upper trophic levels of an estuarine ecosystem. Additionally, light attenuation associated with epiphytes (10% of eelgrass biomass, Kennish et al., 2012), and detritus may be impacting Z. marina in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary. The loss of eelgrass habitat due to light attenuation affects trophic structure by reducing the abundance of herbivorous grazers that can control algal overgrowth (Burkholder et al., 2007). The resulting increase in algal epiphytes, therefore, may exacerbate eelgrass decline via reduced top-down control (Heck and Valentine, 2007). We conclude that nutrient loading, algal shading, and eutrophication are the primary drivers of change in eelgrass habitat of Barnegat BayLittle Egg Harbor Estuary. Acknowledgments This is Contribution No. 12-007 of the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University. Research grants to Michael J. 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