EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES BUY Medco Earnings lifted by one-off gain, solid 4Q16 numbers TP: Rp4,000 (+25.4%) Sector Oil and gas Bloomberg Ticker MEDC IJ Share Price Performance Last price (Rp) 3,190 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 21.9/1.6 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) 111.3 126.2 96.3 Relative to JCI (%) 105.1 120.3 79.3 52w High/Low price (Rp) 3,720/1,145 3,500 Surprisingly, AMIV contributes a net loss in FY16 AMIV, PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMNT – previously known as Newmont) parent company, surprisingly provided a net loss of USD31.2 mn to MEDC in the last two months of FY16. However, for the full year of FY16, AMNT still booked USD517 mn (+23.7% YoY) in earnings to all shareholders, including to AMIV. For 2017, AMNT’s targets 300 – 310 mn lbs of copper and 400 – 420 thousand ounce of gold, lower than FY16 actual copper and gold production of 477 mn lbs and 798 thousand ounces of gold. But, we still expect AMNT to book USD337 mn of earnings which will contribute USD137 mn MEDC earnings in FY17. 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 0 MEDC 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS) Outstanding shrs (mn) 2,942 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 9,385/705 Estimated free float (%) 63.4 Major shareholders Encore Energy 50.7% Credit Suisse 20.7% Prudential Life FY16 earnings beat expectations helped by one-off gain Medco Energi International (MEDC) posted USD184.8 mn of net profit in FY16, a massive turnaround from net loss of USD188.1 mn in FY15, and above our and consensus estimates by 314.1% and 275%, respectively. It came on the back of strong growth of other income, particularly gain on bargain purchase as MEDC acquired several assets on good price discount, such as Amman Mineral Investama (AMIV), and South Natuna Sea Block B, reaping gain of USD551.6 mn in FY16. The company’s revenue increased by 4.4% YoY to USD600.4 mn, but as COGS and operating expenses declined by 2.2% YoY and 12.7% YoY, respectively, the company’s gross profit and operating profit jump to USD250.6 mn (+15.3%) and USD152.8 mn (+45.2% YoY). On quarterly basis, MEDC’s earning jumped significantly to USD162.5 mn due to USD532 mn gain from bargain purchase booked in 4Q16. Revenue rose by 35% QoQ, while gross and operating profit also increased by 75.0% QoQ and 134.7% QoQ. 6.7% EPS Consensus Ciptadana Cons. % Diff 2017F 4.7 5.9 -19.7 2018F 6.6 6.1 7.4 2019F 8.5 8.6 -1.4 Better operational condition in FY17 AMNT has been granted a permit to export a maximum of 675,000 wmt of copper after the ESDM Ministry issued such permit on February 17, 2017. Else, the Sarulla project, a geothermal power plant in Tapanuli, South Sumatera, has started its commercial operation in March 2017. In total there will be three units of power plants to be built with total capacity of 330 MW, or 110 MW for each plant, with the second and third units are scheduled to start operation in late 2017 and 1H18. Sarulla has secured a contract to sell its electricity to PLN for 30 years. Furthermore, MEDC has completed a full acquisition of Inpex Natuna Ltd participation interest in South Natuna Sea Block B (SNSB). MEDC participation interest in SNSB rose to 75% after this acquisition, and is expected to increase MEDC’s total production in FY17 to 81 mmboedp vs 75 mmboepd without this acquisition. Reiterate Buy recommendation with higher TP of Rp4,000/share We reiterate our Buy call with higher TP of Rp4,000/share as we increase our operating profit target by 12.0% - 18.9% given higher oil and gas production target after acquiring 35% participation interest in SNSB. We also change our valuation model from DCF to SOTP to better reflect AMIV’s value to MEDC. Our TP offers 25.4% potential upside. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights Year to 31 Dec Revenue (USDmn) Operating profit (USDmn) Net profit (USDmn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 575 600 811 863 900 105 153 190 222 233 -188 185 158 218 283 EPS (US$Cents) -5.6 5.5 4.7 6.6 8.5 EPS growth (%) n/m n/m -14.6 38.4 29.4 Kurniawan Sudjatmiko EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.0 21.9 5.9 5.1 +62 21 2557 4800 ext 739 PER (x) -4.2 4.3 5.2 3.8 2.9 [email protected] PBV (x) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -27.0 20.8 16.5 19.3 20.8 http://www.ciptadana.com ROE (%) Source : MEDC, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 2 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Surprisingly, AMIV contributes a net loss in FY16 Two months loss from AMIV in FY16 Surprisingly, PT Amman Mineral Investama (AMIV), AMNT’s (previously known as Newmont) parent company, provides net loss of USD31.2 mn to MEDC (41.1% portion). However, that loss was only for the last two months in FY16, while for the full year operational AMNT still booked USD517 mn (+23.7% YoY) of earnings to all shareholders, including to AMIV. In FY16, AMNT produced 798,000 ounces of gold, or up by 12.4% YoY and 477 mn lbs of copper (-3.4% YoY) through its Batu Hijau mine site, totaling USD1,668 mn of revenue or up by 1.5% YoY Exhibit 2 : AMIV’s November – December 2016 results and position (in USD mn) Revenue Profit (loss) Profit (loss) to MEDC Total Assets Equities 156.1 -62.5 -31.2 1,178 1,631 AMIV Source : MEDC Exhibit 3 : AMNT’s full year FY16 results (in USD mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 473 1,644 1,668 Cost applicable to sales 585 772 668 Depreciation and amortization 141 137 134 Reclamation and remediation 12 13 14 Sales Cost and expenses Exploration 1 - - Advanced projects, R&D 2 7 2 General and administrative 8 6 10 Other expense (income), net 8 10 -1 757 945 827 Operating profit -284 699 841 Profit before tax -315 671 826 Net income -244 418 517 Total cost and expenses Source : Newont Mining Corporation Exhibit 4: AMNT’s key ratio FY14 FY15 FY16 Revenue - 247.6 1.5 Operating profit - n.a 20.3 Net profit - n.a 23.7% Operating profit margin -60.0 42.5 50.4 Net profit margin -51.6 25.4 31.0 Growth ratio (%, YoY) Margin (%) Source : Newont Mining Corporation Declining production target from AMNT For 2017F, AMNT targets 300 – 310 mn lbs of copper and 400 – 420 thousand ounce of gold, lower than FY16 actual copper and gold production of 477 mn lbs, and 798 thousand ounce of gold, respectively. The lower target is understandable since Batu Hijau mine is approaching towards the end of phase six of mining operational activity, causing a decline of production before entering phase seven in 2020. Given this, we estimate AMNT’s revenue and earnings to drop to USD1,155 mn and 334 mn, before rebounding in 2020 after the phase seven starts. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 3 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES But, even though the production target is softer, we still expect AMNT’s earnings to hit USD334 mn, and will provide USD137 mn earnings contribution to MEDC in FY17. Exhibit 5: AMNT’s revenue and earnings, FY15 – 2020F USD mn 2,257 2500 2000 1644 1668 1500 1,155 1000 500 1,354 517 418 1,587 334 432 543 2017F 2018F 2019F 819 0 FY15 FY16 Revenue 2020F Earnings Source : Newont Mining Corporation, Ciptadana estimates Financial risks softening after AMIV’s acquisition We reckon that financial risks on MEDC are still linger, excluding the effect of AMNT’s acquisition, as several indicators shows a deteriorating condition. Interest bearing debt to equity only slightly down from 2.27x in FY15 to 2.18x in FY16, as debt increased from USD1,180 mn to USD1,933 mn. Debt to EBITDA also slightly improved to 7.09x in FY16 (vs 7.21x in FY15), while interest coverage ratio plunged to 2.56x in FY16 (vs 2.84x in FY15). However, after the acquisition of AMIV, we foresee much better financial condition for MEDC, as the additional debt of around USD422 mn related to the AMIV acquisition will be offset by USD815.4 mn increase of equity. As a result, we expect debt to Equity to decline to 1.38x in FY17. And with EBITDA is expected to climb to USD449 mn in FY17, we estimate debt to EBITDA to strengthen to 5.24x and EBITDA to interest to 2.94x. Exhibit 6: MEDC’s key ratio (x) 8.00 7.21 7.00 7.09 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 4.53 3.30 3.77 2.00 1.00 5.24 4.10 1.25 1.21 FY13 FY14 2.84 2.56 2.94 2.27 2.18 1.38 FY15 FY16 2017F - Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA EBITDA to interest Source : MEDC, Ciptadana estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 4 EQUITY RESEARCH CIPTADANA SECURITIES MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 Better operational condition in FY17 Receives extension of a concentrate export permit PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMNT) has been granted an extension of concentrate export permit from the government. The recommendation was issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on February 17, 2017 and the Ministry of Trade then issued a copper concentrate export permit with maximum volume of 675,000 wmt. Such quota is permitted until February 18, 2018 and will be reviewed twice a year. AMNT’s export permit was received after the company changed its mining status from Contract of Work to Special Mining Licences on February 10,2017. Along with that, AMNT pledges to build smelter on its mining site, Batu Hijau, with total capacity of 1 mn tons copper concentrate and expected to be finished in 2022. First unit of Sarulla commenced operation in 1Q17 Medco Power Indonesia – a joint venture between MEDC and Saratoga Power, owns 19% interest in Sarulla project, a geothermal power plant located in Tapanuli, North Sumatera. The first unit of Sarulla power plant has started its commercial operation in March 2017. In total, there will be three units of geothermal power plant to be built with total capacity of 330 MW, or 110 MW for each plant. The second and third units are scheduled to start commercial operation in late 2017 and 1H18. With its total capacity, Sarulla will become the largest geothermal utility in Indonesia and the fifth largest geothermal power plant in the world. Sarulla has secured a contract to sell its electricity to state utility firm PLN over a period of 30 years. We expect the Sarulla project to contribute around Rp3.6 bn to MEDC’s other income in 2017F. MEDC increases participation interest in South Natuna Sea Block B (SNSB) Medco Energi International (MEDC) has completed a full acquisition of Inpex Natuna Ltd. participation interest in the South Natuna Sea. Japan’s Inpex Corporation announced that it had decided to sell all its shares in Inpex Natuna Ltd., its wholly-owned subsidiary, which holds a 35% participating interest in the South Natuna Sea’s Block B (SNSB), to PT Medco Daya Sentosa, a subsidiary of MEDC. The transaction value was USD167 mn, and expected to increase MEDC’s participation interest at SNSB to 75%. The remaining 25% is controlled by Chevron Corp., through its Chevron South Natuna B Inc. The share acquisition is expected to be completed in May and MEDC will use internal cash reserves and bank loans to finance the takeover. SNSB’s production rate in FY16 was approximately 20,000 bpd of crude oil, 197 mn mmscfd of natural gas, and 6,000 bpd of liquefied petroleum gas. After the acquisition, MEDC’s total production in FY17 is expected to increase to 81 mmboepd vs 75 mmboepd without this acquisition. However, another challenge emerges as the production from SNSB in FY16 continue to decrease (-6.55% YoY for oil, and -33.45% for gas). Our calculation shows that the acquisition costs for this transaction is around USD839/mmboe reserves, relatively cheaper compare to the acquisition cost of 40% participation interest in SNSB, done by MEDC in November 2016, of USD1,050/mmboe reserves. Positive catalysts to uplift MEDC’s FY17 outlook Shrinking supply provides catalyst for copper price We expect global copper supply to shrink in FY17, the first time in more than a decade, as producers face several big problems, i.e. strikes, disputes with local governments, and bad weather. Workers stroked at Escondida, Chile, and at Peru’s Cerro Verde mine has led to estimated losses of 142,000 tons so far, and with a further 1.6 mn tons of mine capacity still facing labor negotiations, the predicted shortfall will be wider. Elsewhere, Freeport Indonesia, a subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Inc, is facing a dispute over its contract with Indonesia’s Government, which caps its production rate at just 40% of its capacity. Floods and heavy rains also dented production from Indonesian miners. On March 28, 2017 copper price was traded at USD5,575/ton on LME, up 5% this year after 13.8% rally in the final quarter of 2016. We expect copper price to trade at USD6,200/ton at the end of 2017, as demand from China (the largest copper consumer in the world) continue to build, propelled by higher fixed assets investment (8.9% in 2M17 vs 7.9% in 4Q16) and housing sales improvement (+23.7% YoY) in 2M17 as sales in smaller cities remained strong. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 5 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Exhibit 7: Global copper production lost through strikes Thousand Mt 300 250 200 144 150 100 50 0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 2017F Source : Wood Mackenzie Exhibit 8: Copper price at LME USD/ton 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 Source : Bloomberg Oil price continue to face challenges After months of relative price stability, with WTI oil prices pinned between USD50 – 55 per barrel, the pressure on price suddenly build as crude oil inventories in the United States hit a new record level, as U.S. oil production rebound to nearly 9.1 mn barrels per day. It indicates that U.S. shale oil producers were pumping their production to take advantage on the high level of price. As a result, OPEC is expected not to continue the current production limiting accord after June 30, as the impact is only benefiting shale oil producers the most. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Exhibit 9: WTI crude oil price USD/barrel 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Source : Bloomberg Gold market outlook: bullish views on U.S. uncertainties Political volatility and expected higher inflation are producing a strong outlook for global gold prices. Trump’s administration brings uncertainties as several of its policies face fierce resistant from the Americans. Inflation may be stoked by a sharply rising money supply and new stimulative measures, and the U.S. is becoming more protectionists and less globally focused. In such a changing world order, gold stands as the constant that could benefit. Exhibit 10: Gold price USD/once 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 Reiterate Buy recommendation with higher TP of Rp4,000./share We reiterate our Buy call with higher TP of Rp4,000/share given higher oil and gas production target after acquiring 35% participating interest in South Natuna Sea Block B from Inpex Natuna Ltd. We increase our 2017F – 18F revenue and operating profit target by 5.0% - 8.3% and 12.0% - 18.9%, respectively, but toned down earnings target by 19.1% 22.7% as we foresee lower earnings contribution from AMIV due to lower production from Batu Hijau mine site as it approaches the end of stage 6 exploration activity. Earnings in 2017F were also estimated lower on the asbsence one-off gain on bargain transaction like what happened in FY16. We also change our valuation model to SOTP from DCF to better calculate AMIV’s value to MEDC. We have already included AMNT’s additional debt of USD1,271 mn that the company has to bear after the acquisition and around USD3 bn capex to develop Elang mine site. Our TP offers 25.4% potential upside and implied 2017F PER of 6.4x. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 7 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Exhibit 11: MEDC’s SOTP Valuation Companies Valuation method Ownerships MEDC only DCF 100% AMNT DCF 41.1% TOTAL Plus: Cash Enterprise value (USD mn) 1,648.0 1,123.5 2,771.5 164.6 Minus: Debt (MEDC’s debt only) -1,933.3 Total EV 1,002.7 Number of shares (mn shares) 3,332 EV per shares (USD) 0.30 Exchange rate (USD/IDR) 13,300 EV per shares (Rp) 4,000 Source : Ciptadana Estimates *: already includes AMNT’s additional debt of USD1,271 mn related to the acquisition and USD3 bn of capex for Elang’s development. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 8 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC – Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Exhibit 12: MEDC’s FY16 results (in USD mn) FY16 Revenue 600 FY15 YoY 4Q16 3Q16 QoQ FY16 FY16/2016F 575 4.4% 184 136 35.0% 587 102.2% 221 113.3% 130 117.9% 260 100.0% 59 314.1% Gross profit 251 217 15.3% 91 52 75.0% Gross margin (%) 41.7 37.8 4.0 49.6 38.3 11.3 Operating profit 153 105 45.2% 66 28 134.7% Operating margin (%) 25.5 18.3 7.2 36.1 20.8 15.3 Profit before tax 260 -123 n.a 235 3 7,862.2% PBT margin (%) 43.4 -21.4 64.7 127.9 2.2 125.8 Net income 185 -188 n.a 163 11 1,382.5% Net margin (%) 30.8 -32.7 63.5 88.6 8.1 80.5 FY16 FY15 YoY 21.9 23.0 -4.8% 198.4 140.5 41.2% 55.8 47.0 18.7% Copper, mn lbs 477 494 -3.4% Gold, thousand oz 798 710 12.4% Exhibit 13: Production highlights Oil, mbopd Gas, mmscfd Total oil mboepd and gas, Exhibit 14: Forecast changes 2017F 2018F New Previous % change New Previous % change Revenue 811 772 5.0% 863 797 8.3% Gross profit 298 291 2.5% 337 312 8.1% Gross profit margin (%) 36.8 37.7 -0.9 39.0 39.1 -0.1 Operating profit 190 170 12.0% 222 187 18.9% Operating margin (%) 23.5 22.1 1.5 25.7 23.5 2.3 Net profit 158 195 -19.1% 218 282 -22.7% Net profit margin (%) 19.5 25.3 -5.8 25.3 35.4 -10.1 Source : MEDC, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 9 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Exhibit 15 - Income Statement Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) Revenue 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 575 600 811 863 900 -358 -350 -513 -526 -548 217 251 298 337 352 -112 -98 -108 -115 -120 Oper. profit 105 153 190 222 233 EBITDA 318 416 109 346 358 4 6 8 8 13 COGS Gross profit Oper. expenses Interest income Interest expense -77 -106 -119 -103 -78 Other income (exp.) -155 208 183 238 303 Pre-tax profit -123 260 263 364 471 Income tax -31 -63 -105 -146 -188 Net profit -188 185 158 218 283 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 689 231 216 325 265 99 183 190 203 211 Exhibit 16 - Balance Sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) Cash & cash equivalent Acct, receivables Inventory Other curr, asset Total current asset Fixed assets - net 40 70 81 83 86 217 649 336 357 373 1,045 1,134 823 969 936 69 5 96 93 90 Other non-curr.asset 1,769 2,433 2,548 2,483 2,411 Total asset 2,910 3,597 3,489 3,567 3,460 258 411 769 516 266 77 105 134 137 143 9 4 9 10 10 ST debt + curr. maturity Acct, payable Advances received Other curr. liab 182 340 160 164 171 Long term debt 1,322 1,522 1,016 1,016 1,016 360 324 445 588 490 2,208 2,707 2,532 2,431 2,095 696 888 954 1,133 1,361 Minority interest 5 3 3 3 3 Total liab + SHE 2,910 3,597 3,489 3,567 3,460 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Other non-curr, liab, Total liabilities Shareholder equity Exhibit 17 - Per Share Data (US$Cents) EPS -5.6 5.5 4.7 6.6 8.5 BVPS 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 DPS -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 FCF per share Source : MEDC, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 10 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES Exhibit 18 - Cash Flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Net income -188 185 158 218 283 Depreciation 213 263 -81 124 126 Chg in working cap. -12 -87 11 -11 -6 Other -81 -277 140 -17 -8 CF-Oper activities -68 84 228 314 394 Capital expenditure -57 37 -10 -34 -34 Others -30 -741 -113 -21 -16 CF-Investing activities -87 -704 -123 -54 -50 Net change in debt 474 353 -149 -253 -250 Net change in equity 77 -2 0 0 0 Dividend payment -1 45 -46 -39 -55 Other financing -139 -316 77 143 -98 CF-Financing activities 411 81 -119 -149 -403 Net cash flow 257 -539 -14 111 -59 Cash - begin of the year 207 463 165 150 261 Cash - end of the year 463 -76 150 261 202 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue (%) -23.4 4.4 35.1 6.5 4.3 Operating profit (%) -34.5 45.2 24.6 16.8 4.6 n/m n/m -14.6 38.4 29.4 Gross margin (%) 37.8 41.7 36.8 39.0 39.1 Operating margin (%) 18.3 25.5 23.5 25.7 25.8 EBITDA margin (%) 55.4 69.3 13.5 40.1 39.8 -32.7 30.8 19.5 25.3 31.4 Exhibit 19 - Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec Growth Net profit (%) Profitability Ratios Net margin (%) ROA (%) -6.5 5.1 4.5 6.1 8.2 ROE (%) -27.0 20.8 16.5 19.3 20.8 Current ratio (x) 2.0 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 Quick ratio (x) 1.9 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 50.6 103.6 88.0 83.4 84.7 Inventory turnover (days) 40.9 73.4 57.6 57.6 57.6 Receivable turnover (days) 63.5 85.6 84.1 83.0 83.9 Payable turnover (days) 53.7 55.4 53.7 57.2 56.8 Interest cover (x) 4.1 3.9 0.9 3.4 4.6 Debt to equity ratio (x) 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.9 Net debt to equity (x) 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.7 Liquidity Ratios Cash conversion cycle (days) Activity Ratio Solvency Ratio Source : MEDC, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 11 EQUITY RESEARCH MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 CIPTADANA SECURITIES EQUITY RESEARCH HEAD OF RESEARCH Arief Budiman Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Construction Shipping Construction, T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 819 E [email protected] ANALYST Syaiful Adrian Banking, Consumer, Cigarette T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 919 E [email protected] ANALYST Zabrina Raissa, CSA Poultry, Cement, Toll Road, Aviation T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 735 E [email protected] ANALYST Kurniawan Sudjatmiko Coal, Metal Mining, Oil & Gas and Services T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 739 E [email protected] ANALYST Nichelle Ongko Media, Retail, Others T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 740 E [email protected] ANALYST Edward Lowis Consumer, Plantations T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 760 E [email protected] ANALYST Niko Margaronis Telecommunication, Tower T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 734 E [email protected] JUNIOR ECONOMIST Imanuel Reinaldo T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 820 E [email protected] TECHNICAL ANALYST Trevor Gasman T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 934 E [email protected] RESEARCH ASSISTANT Sumarni T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 920 E [email protected] EQUITY SALES Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES Dadang Mulyana Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta - 12190 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 838 F +62 21 2557 4900 E [email protected] Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES The Fei Ming Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta - 12190 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 807 F +62 21 2557 4900 E [email protected] JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA Gavin Ishak Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Rukan Blok C No.10 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Jakarta - 10730 T +62 21 600 2850 F +62 21 612 1049 E [email protected] JAKARTA - PURI KENCANA Chandra Herotionjaya Perkantoran Puri Niaga III Jl. Puri Kencana Blok M8 No.2E Kembangan Jakarta - 11610 T +62 21 5830 3450 F +62 21 5830 3449 E [email protected] SEMARANG Lusiana Permatasari Gedung Menara Suara Merdeka 6th Floor Unit-02 Jl. Pandanaran No.30 Semarang - 50134 T +62 24 7692 8777 F +62 24 7692 8778 E [email protected] MEDAN Juliawaty Mall Grand Palladium GE 1 Floor No.6 & 7 Jl. Kapten Maulana Lubis No.8 Medan - 20112 T +62 61 455 5600 F +62 61 451 9141 E [email protected] Imelda Soetikno SURABAYA Intiland Tower Surabaya Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6 Jl. Panglima Sudirman 101-103 Surabaya - 60271 T +62 31 534 3938 F +62 31 534 3886 E [email protected] Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 12 EQUITY RESEARCH CIPTADANA SECURITIES MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 13 EQUITY RESEARCH CIPTADANA SECURITIES MEDC - Results Update - 06 April 2017 Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 14
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