Complex Systems Seminar-- 10/30/2007
Over a year into this seminar, we are still debating the definition of “complex systems.”
One suggested approach is to begin by defining what is not complex. According to Bill
Smith, control gives power. Thus what is not complex is:
-- That which is controllable
-- That which is whole and gives meaning to all things
Stuart Umpleby
In cybernetics three models have been used:
-- Control: there is a regulator and the system being regulated
-- Self organizing systems: a system that is closed to information but open to
energy
-- Reflexivity: the agent is both an observer and a participant. There are two
functions -- cognition and participation. There is a sequential process of: acting,
interpreting, re-conceptualizing, and acting. During this process one changes
levels of analysis.
Smith we need to move beyond control to holeness.
-- Control: small system; few inputs (e.g. coffee machine, alarm clock)
-- Influence: scientific relativity; open systems; complexity
-- Appreciation: mind and spirit, understanding the nature of the whole, always
relative to some purpose, a focus on the whole, no base from which to sort out
relativity
Beyond complexity our culture says "the end point of everything is control"
"We have to look at things from a center point between control and appreciation.”
Our task is to design processes to build authentic relationships between control
and appreciation
Bill Halal The University of Michigan definition suggests that Complex Systems are
another way of talking about life (living beings). Can an inanimate object be
complex? Is weather a complex system?
Are all complex systems living? Weather is global but we try to forecast it
regionally.
Smith We live in a world of influence where we assume that we have things under
control and it usually works out. But we don’t have an agreed sense of what the
meaning is.
Umpleby Cybernetics has been moving toward looking at perception or cognitive
systems (concern for the observer). Cybernetics is concerned with purpose-- is
the weather system just wind and rain or also the humans affected by such
phenomena.
Smith Knowledge is at the control level, influence is understanding, appreciation level is
wisdom. We try to understand in terms of rules or logic. Our culture has taught us
that the end point of everything is control (that someday we will have control of a
situation). We need to look at what is the best process for balancing what can
really be controlled and appreciation. This can be done by building authentic
relationships.
Notturno
In terms of policy, if you can’t make reliable predictions about complex
systems, then you can’t test theories or make reliable decisions. We must have
an understanding that we cannot do what the control model says we can do. Be
skeptical about claims that we can predict, control, understand. Science seeks
understanding, which can lead to control. We assume we can test our theories. If
we can’t test them, then we need to resort to other forms of
persuasion/manipulation.
You can't make reliable predictions because of too many variables
Smith There are different types of criteria for different worlds.
3 science analogues:
-- Newtonian science:
-- Einsteinian science: relative measures
-- Quantum science: you can't separate from observer
Control is really assumed control, not absolute control. Anything above 75%
probability is assumed control.
Halal It is true that complex systems can’t be controlled in the Newtonian sense.
Complex systems and chaos theory have helped us to accept the limits of our control.
Smith The means we use to get things done has to use equally control, influence, and
appreciation.
For appreciation level this means listening without judgment, trying to gain
understand, sensing. OR Listening, understanding, thinking, and feeling are forms
of judgment so are not appropriate for appreciation.
The whole is that which affects our purpose; what we cannot control or influence.
Justin Eastern philosophies talk about wholons, or systems nested inside other systems.
Halal We are on the verge of a shift in thinking to recognition of the limits of knowledge,
need consciousness.
Lowell Christy
Macy conferences used the term “agency” rather than “control”.
Agency is a broader concept than control. Once you have an agent, then you can have
an actor.
There are five things missing from the complexity literature:
-- Downward causality: higher levels of causation influencing us that we can't
comprehend
-- The unexpected: The Nazis brought Teutonic myths to everyday life to limit the
way folks saw the world ("the image")
-- Field application
-- Theory of logical types
-- The limits of knowledge
Karl Rove limited the way we view the world. The Foreign Policy community is so ripe for
systems-thinking. You only win if you consider the perspective of those whom you are
bombing. The Iraq war is constructed as a problem-based war (take out terrorists/ drug
production) and this aggravates the system (produces worse outcome). The difficulties
are the result of reductionist thinking being applied to messy human affairs.
"How do you test a self-actualizing system?" How do you test a complex system? A
theory of logical types. Another C word… change. Over time a transformation of
structure lets information flow in certain ways.
Lowell
Problem-based thinking is problematic because it isolates a czar. We
need positive re-framing, less-compartmentalization, clarity (e.g. Roosevelt and Churchill,
The Atlantic Charter: just 8 points) The Treaty of Versailles and agents are problem
based. We are not respecting the principles of nature.
Look at how things are done now (positional negotiation). We could use
principled negotiation (like Rawls’ veil of ignorance). Design a principled
system that would be longer lasting.
Stuart
John Warfield’s recommendation for 21st Century Universities. (Do a
google search for “wandwaver solution.”)
Universities can be thought of as containing 3 colleges:
-- Heritage College-- what we have learned in the past
-- Professional College-- law, business, medicine, engineering-- what's
practiced now
-- Horizons college—interdisciplinary; how to act in the future, design
oriented, a center for advanced study where people from various fields
come/ work together (systems science would be the curriculum of the
horizons college)
Corona
In western thinking we have a tendency to break things into parts, which
is why people have a hard time with a systems curriculum.
Notturno
How would we do things otherwise?
Lowell
A futures college gives people "the tool belt to dance no matter which
future may come".
Justin
The idea is not to predict, it is to visualize alternative futures. We need
contingency plans.
Lowell
It’s to enable humans to deal with whatever future happens.
Halal
The problem at the University level is that anything not backed up by
formal knowledge is suspect
There are different views of progress-- is it defining best practices (stay in the present) or
change the framework, be open to a new perspective.
Smith
The issue of definition is itself a problem. A level above systems is the
level of the whole. The whole is context driven. It is everything that affects the
achievement of our purpose that is not control or influence. We're not going to find
answers to complex systems at the level of complex systems. Appreciation values -comes from infinite perspective.
Stuart
The change from 1st order cybernetics to 2nd order cybernetics is one way of
seeing the whole
-- 1st order - regulation of systems
-- 2nd order – include the observer, interpretation
Smith But 2nd order cybernetics never gets there. The whole is practical. It is what
affects achievement of purpose. Conscious and unconscious purpose. We need ways of
thinking about that 3rd level (of appreciation, the whole). Opening up to the 3rd level
would dissolve in advance the usual problems. The purpose of appreciation is to keep
the system open to all the levels above it.
Surowiecki’s "Wisdom of the Crowds" is the power of an appreciative perspective
"Self-reference is the infinite in finite guise" -F Varela
(notion of infinite reflection on reflection)
By self multiplication and replication comes the infinite variety of forms.
Lowell
What would be a tool kit for cybernetics, complexity, chaos theory?
Stuart
A beginning would be the three models mentioned earlier (regulation,
self-organization, reflexivity). Another schema is describing complex (social) systems in
terms of variables (monitoring of the consequences), ideas, groups, events. Also, the
viable systems model, the work of Ackoff and the work of the Institution of Cultural
Affairs.
Lowell
How would you measure healthy/non-healthy systems?
Smith
The influence level deals with what is the nature of the influence between
dynamic parts. The whole is: appreciation of reality, appreciation of what can be.
BOOK recommendation: Getting to Yes