+
Bottleneck
situations in the
south-east
Winter 2016-2017
+
What are Bottleneck situations in the southeast?
GRTgaz’s network entry points located in the southeast are as follows: the LNG terminals of
Fos-sur-Mer and the storage facilities of the South-East PITS (Salins group).
The South-East PITS is made up of the Manosque, Tersanne and Etrez storage facilities.
GRTgaz’s network exit points located in the southeast are as follows: the Cruzy exit point to
the TIGF network and the PIR Jura exit point to Switzerland.
A bottleneck situation arises in cases of low output from the LNG terminals of Fos-sur-Mer
and insufficient withdrawals out of the South-East PITS storage facilities. This translates into
a local supply deficit despite of the saturation of transmission on GRTgaz’s network (see
compression stations and pipeline in red on the graph).1
A bottleneck situation in the southeast can arise on two locations:
 Bottleneck scenario 1: gridlock at
the Rhône pipeline. This bottleneck
situation requires minimum supply
levels at the LNG terminals of Fos-surMer and/or at the Manosque storage
facilities, which is the only storage
downnstream of this bottleneck area.
 Bottleneck scenario 2: gridlock at
the Beaujolais pipeline and the
compression station of Etrez. This
bottleneck situation requires minimum
supply levels at the LNG terminals of
Fos-sur-Mer and at the South-East
PITS, as all the South-East PITS
storage
facilities
are
located
downstream of this bottleneck area.
The Jura exit point is located
downstream of this bottleneck area.
Since the onset of winter, GRTgaz has experienced bottleneck scenarios 1 and 2
simultaneously on its network, due to weak output out of the Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminal.
The South-East PITS has been greatly in demand, despite rather mild temperatures. The
residual volumes of natural gas in these storage facilities have reached their lowest levels in
the past five years. As a consequence, depending on the harshness of the temperatures
towards the end of winter and if no further LNG deliveries are made, risks of load shedding
may materialise before the end of February.
1
The flows are in gridlock when a pipeline is at maximum pressure at its entry point and at minimum pressure at
its exit point or when compression levels are at their maximum to allow for maximised flows on the network.
Bottleneck situations in the south-east - Winter 2016-2017
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GRTgaz, Immeuble BORA, 6 rue Raoul Nordling - 92270 Bois Colombes - Telephone number: 01 55 66 40 00 - www.grtgaz.com
A limited company with capital of 538,165,490 euros - registered on the Nanterre Trade and Companies Register under number 440 117 620
2
Occurrences of bottleneck situations in the south-east
In winter, GRTgaz performs a daily calculation of the overall capacity of the North-South link
and the withdrawal capacity of the South-Atlantic PITS thanks to network modelling tools.
This is the maximum capacity, which can be transmitted on GRTgaz’s network on any gas
day, from the North zone and the South-Atlantic PITS exit points in the South Trading zone
(TRS). This calculation takes into account the entry bottleneck situations in the south-east
according to the output plan of the Fos-sur-Mer terminals.
As the entry capacity on the North-South Link, the South-Atlantic PITS and the Fos-sur-Mer
LNG terminal output plan has already been established, shippers can choose to balance out
their supply in the TRS zone with other network entry points, i.e. the South-East PITS, the
Pirineos PIR and the Lussagnet storage facility.
On a given day, even if the TRS zone is balanced, a bottleneck situation appears in the southeast when net nominations for withdrawals from the South-East PITS are insufficient under
the Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminal output plan to cover the natural gas capacity requirements2 of
the consumers located downstream of the bottleneck area, as show on the map.
This bottleneck situation is detailed in the Winter Outlook that is published by GRTgaz every
year. A bottleneck vigilance indicator is published daily on the Smart GRTgaz information
service, together with recommendations and an assessment of the withdrawal requirements
for the South-East PITS.
http://smart.grtgaz.com/en/infovigilance
Daily calculation of the South-East PITS withdrawal requirements.
When a bottleneck situation arises in the south-east, GRTgaz runs a daily calculation of the
South-East PITS withdrawal requirements for the current gas day and the next gas day.
As the Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminal output plan has already been established, the withdrawal
requirement at the PITS is deducted by taking into account the consumption forecasts
downstream of the bottleneck areas, i.e. the Jura PIR (downstream of the bottleneck area 2
only, they are estimated at 15 GWh/d on average), the Cruzy exit point (generally 0 in a
south-east bottleneck situation) and the maximum quantity of natural gas which may be
transmitted on the network bottleneck area.
The maximum flows on saturated pipelines vary according to consumption and network
pressure levels (linepack).
For bottleneck 1, maximum flows on the Rhône pipeline vary between 160 and 180 GWh/d
in winter. For bottleneck 2, maximum flows on the Beaujolais pipeline and the Etrez
compression station vary between 320 and 345 GWh/d in winter.
Overall, the withdrawal requirement for each bottleneck area is as follows:
South-East PITS withdrawal requirements =
+ Consumption downstream of bottleneck area + Jura PIR exit point (area 2 only)
– Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminal output plan
– Maximum flows on the pipelines in the bottleneck area.
2
In this instance, they are located in the south.
Bottleneck situations in the south-east - Winter 2016-2017
Restriction levels: This document is restricted to: [ ] Internal only: [ ] Restricted: [x] Confidential: [ ]
GRTgaz, Immeuble BORA, 6 rue Raoul Nordling - 92270 Bois Colombes - Telephone number: 01 55 66 40 00 - www.grtgaz.com
A limited company with capital of 538,165,490 euros - registered on the Nanterre Trade and Companies Register under number 440 117 620
3
The Manosque storage facility withdrawal requirement as a result of a bottleneck scenario 1
is thus translated into a withdrawal requirement at the South-East PITS (shippers have no
visibility on this storage facility as it is an integral part of the overall South-East PITS). This is
fixed jointly with Storengy according to GRTgaz’s requirements and shippers’ nominations.
Supply requirement evaluation for the South-East PITS
For the rest of the winter season, minimum flows from the entry points located downstream
of the bottleneck (ie. the Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminals and the South-East PITS, hereinafter
the FOS+Salins requirement) will be required to secure supplies for the south-east.
At end January 2017, GRTgaz expects that the South-East PITS should have reached a 35%
fill rate.
For February and March 2017, GRTgaz anticipates that the delivery requirements will be as
follows, depending on the harshness of winter temperatures:
February (28 calendar days)
Min Req.
March (31 calendar days)
FOS+Salins
GWh
of which FOS
GWh/d
FOS+Salins
GWh
of which min. FOS
GWh/d
Average winter
temperatures
3 900
60
1 900
40
Harsh winter
temperatures
5 500
110
2 900
80
Estimates as of 26 January 2017
The calculation assumptions are detailed in Appendix 1.
For each consumption scenario, the supply requirements ensure guaranteed supply for the
south-east over the rest of the winter period assuming the gridlock of the pipelines around
the bottleneck areas.
This assumption does not take into account the additional requirement on the LNG terminals
and the withdrawal capacity requirements out of the South-East PITS in order to cover the
forward estimate for France in the event of harsh cold intervals.
This estimate is published on the Smart GRTgaz information service and is updated once
every fortnight.
A risk of south-east bottleneck will remain daily in the event of insufficient nominations for
capacity at the South-East PITS and on the basis of the Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminals output
plan. The current provisions of the GRTgaz vigilance mechanism as detailed in the GRTgaz’s
Winter Outlook document are still in force as follows: a bottleneck vigilance indicator is
published daily on Smart GRTgaz as well an assessment of the withdrawal requirements for
the South-East PITS for the current gas day and the next gas day.
Bottleneck situations in the south-east - Winter 2016-2017
Restriction levels: This document is restricted to: [ ] Internal only: [ ] Restricted: [x] Confidential: [ ]
GRTgaz, Immeuble BORA, 6 rue Raoul Nordling - 92270 Bois Colombes - Telephone number: 01 55 66 40 00 - www.grtgaz.com
A limited company with capital of 538,165,490 euros - registered on the Nanterre Trade and Companies Register under number 440 117 620
4
Appendix 1: Calculation assumptions
Consumption scenarios
Consumption scenarios were estimated as at 22 January 2017 out of the following data:
GRTgaz’s consumption forecasts to the end of January and consumption trends for two
winter temperature forecasts, i.e. average winter temperatures and harsh winter
temperatures.
The average winter temperatures correspond to the average Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
(CCGT) consumption over the past 7 winter periods.
The harsh winter scenario reflects the CCGT consumption forecasts based on harsh winter
temperatures for the first 8 days in February, on GRTgaz’s several day forecasts as well as
the consumption rates in February 2012 excluding CCGTs and for March, the consumption
rates in March 2013, also excluding CCGTs.
For each of these 2 scenarios (see Appendix 2), the CCGT consumption rates were adjusted
for this year’s winter consumption so far (see below).
Natural gas consumption of Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT)
The CCGTs located downstream from the south-east bottleneck area are as follows:
Combigolfe, Cycofos, Martigues (2 stations).
The natural gas consumption of these 4 CCGT stations since November 2017 has been on
average 70GWh/d on business days and 45 GWh/d on bank holidays and weekend days.
The maximum consumption over this period has been 81.2 GWh/d.
The average consumption was used as an assumption of the CCGT’s consumption for
February and March 2017.
Exit point assumptions
The Jura PIR Jura exit point is exploited at the rate of 15 GWh/d on average. The Jura PIR
Jura exit point is located downstream of the bottleneck area 2 only.
The Cruzy exit point is not used, it equals to 0.
Maximum flows
For bottleneck 1, maximum flows on the Rhône pipeline are 170 GWh/d. Consumption
downstream of the bottleneck has been forecast at 30% of the consumption of the TRS zone
as withdrawn from GRTgaz’s network, excluding CCGTs (see Appendix 2).
For bottleneck 2, maximum flows on the Beaujolais pipeline and the Etrez compression
station are 320 GWh/d. Consumption downstream of the bottleneck has been forecast at
65% of that of the TRS zone as withdrawn from GRTgaz’s network, excluding CCGTs (see
Appendix 2).
Performance of storage facilities
The assumption also takes into account the progressive decrease in the performance of the
South-East PITS storage facilities depending on their residual stock levels.
Residual stocks of around 500 GWh/d at the South-East PITS are being maintained until the
end of March to create sufficient withdrawal capacity to meet a harsh cold interval during
several days.
Bottleneck situations in the south-east - Winter 2016-2017
Restriction levels: This document is restricted to: [ ] Internal only: [ ] Restricted: [x] Confidential: [ ]
GRTgaz, Immeuble BORA, 6 rue Raoul Nordling - 92270 Bois Colombes - Telephone number: 01 55 66 40 00 - www.grtgaz.com
A limited company with capital of 538,165,490 euros - registered on the Nanterre Trade and Companies Register under number 440 117 620
5
Appendix 2: Consumption scenarios
GRTgaz’s South
Trading Zone
zone excluding
CCGTs
01/02/17
02/02/17
03/02/17
04/02/17
05/02/17
06/02/17
07/02/17
08/02/17
09/02/17
10/02/17
11/02/17
12/02/17
13/02/17
14/02/17
15/02/17
16/02/17
17/02/17
18/02/17
19/02/17
20/02/17
21/02/17
22/02/17
23/02/17
24/02/17
25/02/17
26/02/17
27/02/17
28/02/17
01/03/17
02/03/17
03/03/17
04/03/17
05/03/17
06/03/17
07/03/17
08/03/17
09/03/17
10/03/17
11/03/17
12/03/17
13/03/17
14/03/17
15/03/17
16/03/17
17/03/17
18/03/17
19/03/17
20/03/17
21/03/17
22/03/17
23/03/17
24/03/17
25/03/17
26/03/17
27/03/17
28/03/17
29/03/17
30/03/17
31/03/17
Average winter
temperatures
567
575
585
541
508
596
602
619
658
684
685
658
629
607
607
601
598
583
573
561
563
573
564
553
544
545
554
544
549
530
532
535
524
527
530
527
533
524
505
498
492
485
482
452
457
440
424
421
422
428
413
416
423
419
397
393
374
373
372
Harsh winter
temperature
forecast
590
600
623
572
574
637
670
682
937
934
923
901
886
791
726
672
643
577
599
704
703
670
627
547
483
502
573
543
650
603
577
546
517
509
450
443
412
409
452
518
640
685
657
539
525
576
529
523
495
429
401
436
495
525
499
525
493
426
466
Bottleneck situations in the south-east - Winter 2016-2017
Restriction levels: This document is restricted to: [ ] Internal only: [ ] Restricted: [x] Confidential: [ ]
GRTgaz, Immeuble BORA, 6 rue Raoul Nordling - 92270 Bois Colombes - Telephone number: 01 55 66 40 00 - www.grtgaz.com
A limited company with capital of 538,165,490 euros - registered on the Nanterre Trade and Companies Register under number 440 117 620
6