Bruce Mehlman
Jan. 5, 2017
[email protected]
follow @bpmehlman
How the West Wing Was Won, 2016
Outcomes & Implications
CONTENTS
I. SUMMARY: Results, Turnout, Electorate (Slides 3-5)
II. HOW TRUMP WON: 5 REASONS (Slides 6-11)
III. WHY CLINTON LOST: 5 REASONS (Slides 12-17)
IV. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS (Slides 18-22)
V. ELECTION CONCLUSIONS (Slides 23-30)
VI. THE ROAD AHEAD: POLICY & PROCESS (Slides 31-39)
2
RESULTS: Big Night for the GOP
306
Candidate
Popular Vote
Percent
TRUMP
62,985,106
45.9%
CLINTON
65,853,625
48.0%
JOHNSON
4,489,233
3.3%
STEIN
1,457,222
1.1%
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
HOUSE: D+7
114th
115th
GOP
247
241
DEM
188
194
GOVERNORS: R+2
SENATE: D+2
114th
115th
GOP
54
52
DEM / IND
46
48
2016
2017
GOP
31
33
DEM
18
16
IND
1
1
3
TURNOUT: Above 2012, Below ‘08 & ‘04
U.S. Voter Turnout as % of Eligible Voters
65
63.8
62.8
62.5
61.6
60.2
60.1
60
58.2
58.1
56.2
54.8
55
54.2
55.2
54.2
52.8
51.7
50
45
40
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Source: US Election Project; 2016 (final)
4
ELECTORATE: Younger, Better Educated, Less White
Demographics Were Not Destiny
SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE
2004 2008 2012 2016
White
77%
74%
72%
70%
African Americans
11%
13%
13%
12%
Hispanics
8%
9%
10%
11%
Asian Americans
2%
2%
3%
4%
18-29
17%
18%
19%
19%
65+
24%
23%
16%
15%
Not College Grad
58%
55%
53%
50%
College Grad
42%
45%
47%
50%
Male
46%
47%
47%
48%
Female
54%
53%
53%
52%
5
HOW TRUMP WON
5 Reasons
6
Why Trump Won
#1. Americans Want Change
Change Mattered Most
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
39%
Which Candidate Quality Mattered Most?
21%
20%
15%
Bring Change
Right Experience
Good Judgment
Cares
TRUMP Dominated Change Voters
Can Bring
Needed Change
Right
Experience
Good
Judgment
Cares About
People Like Me
T+69
C+82
C+40
C+23
Source: CNN Exit Polls; Net difference shown on bottom.
207
Why Trump Won
#2. Trump Favored on Key Issues
8
Why Trump Won
#3. More Outside $$ Offset Less Campaign $$
Share of Disclosed Outside Spending (Presidential)
$332,966,556
$409,254,368
Outside For Dem / Against R
Clinton Campaign
Trump Campaign
Outside For R / Against D
$231,546,996
$435,367,811
9
Why Trump Won
#4.
Trump
Breached
“Big Blue Wall”
Will
It BeCoalition
the Same
Old Battlefield?...
After Dems Won 6 Elections in a Row…
WI
IA
+39
White
No College
Voters
(Romney +25)
MI
OH
+23
White
Catholic
voters
(Romney +19)
PA
-8
Union
Households
(Romney -18)
10
Why Trump Won
#5. Ran Against the Media Establishment
Great Deal/Fair Amount of Trust in Mass Media by Party
70
65
64
61
59
60
53
53
52
50
40
59
58
60
58
56
55
54
51
49
49
47
60
53
52
53
46
41
52
66
59
59
55
53
70
66
44
44
41
41
39
39
39
38
36
33
30
31
31
32
27
38
37
38
31
33
33
30
32
26
27
20
14
10
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
11
WHY CLINTON LOST
5 Reasons
12
Why Clinton Lost
#1. “Obama Coalition” Less Committed
Weaker Support for Clinton ‘16 than Obama ‘12
Demographic
Hispanics
Unmarried
Women
Asian
Americans
Millennials
African
Americans
Dem
Share
-8
-7
-11
-5
-7
vs 2012
points
points
points
points
points
Only Minor Drop-Off in Pro-Dem Turnout
Source: Exit Polls; Wikipedia (2008, 2012); 2016 (US Election atlas)
Obama 2008
69.5M
Obama 2012
65.9M
Clinton 2016
65.8M
13
Why Clinton Lost
#2. Too Much Baggage
61%
say Clinton not
“honest &
trustworthy”
(though Trump was 63%)
Source: Exit Polls
14
Why Clinton Lost
#3. Americans Don’t Like “Third Terms”
After 8 Years Americans Usually Seek a Rebalancing
Incumbent
President
Year
Election Eve
Incumbent
Approval
Intended
Successor’s Fate
Truman
1952
32%
Lost
Eisenhower
1960
58%
Lost
Johnson
1968
42%
Lost
Reagan
1988
51%
Won
Clinton
2000
57%
Lost
George W Bush 2008
25%
Lost
56%
Lost
Obama
Source: WSJ
2016
15
Why Clinton Lost
#4. Trump Message Clearer
In the campaign’s closing weeks of ads…
10.2%
100%
of Trump ads
featured Clinton
of Clinton ads
featured Trump
Source: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by Wesleyan Media Project
16
Why Clinton Lost
#5. Third Parties Absorbed Critical Votes
Spoiler Alert!
STATE
CLINTON DEFICIT
/ LEAD
JOHNSON
STEIN
MI (16)
-10,704
172,136
51,463
WI (10)
-22,748
106,674
31,072
PA (20)
-44,292
146,715
49,941
FL (29)
-112,911
207,043
64,399
AZ (11)
-91,234
106,327
34,345
3rd party impact cut both ways
Source: US Election Atlas,
NH (4)
+2,736
30,777
6,496
CO (9)
+136,386
144,121
38,437
NV (6)
+27,202
37,384
N/A
17
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
OUTCOMES & ANALYSIS
18
No States Split WH-Senate Vote (1st time ever)
State
Trump 2016
Senate Outcome
IL
-16
DEM Pick Up
WI
+1
GOP Hold
NV
-2
DEM Hold
PA
+1
GOP Hold
CO
-2
DEM Hold
NH
-1
DEM Pick Up
IA
+10
GOP Hold
OH
+8
GOP Hold
FL
+1
GOP Hold
NC
+4
GOP Hold
IN
+19
GOP Hold
MO
+19
GOP Hold
GA
+5
GOP Hold
AZ
+5
GOP Hold
19
Did Trump Have Coattails?
Contested States Where Senate
Republican Ran Ahead of Trump
Contested States Where Senate
Republican Ran Behind / Tied Trump
Senate Margin
State
Trump Margin
Senate Margin
State
Trump Margin
+24.5
IA
+9.6
+9.7
IN
+19.3
+21.4
OH
+8.6
+3.2
MO
+18.6
+14.2
GA
+5.7
-2.4
NV
-2.4
+12.3
AZ
+4.1
+7.7
FL
+1.3
+5.8
NC
+3.8
+3.4
WI
+1.0
+1.7
PA
+1.2
-0.1
NH
-0.4
-14.2
IL
-16.0
20
GOP Retained Control of House, Lost Net 7
GOP Ran
Uncontested
GOP Incumbent
Won Reelection
GOP Open
Seat Held
GOP Captured
Dem Seat
DEM Captured
GOP Seat
DEM Open
Seat Held
DEM Incumbent
Won Reelection
DEM Ran
Uncontested
29
206
25
3
10
15
136
35
240
195
21
House GOP Helped by Fewer Retirements
Fewest Voluntary House Departures Since 2006
140
120
56
100
80
37
22
3
60
4
11
17
21
9
12
12
10
1
40
20
43
23
3
9
19
54
31
32
33
105th
106th
107th
8
2
14
28
27
3
8
6
17
28
18
14
4
13
18
2
16
13
5
15
45
48
110th
111th
51
41
23
29
0
103rd
104th
Retired, Resigned, Died
Source: CQ/Roll Call Casualty List; MCR&T calculations
108th
109th
Ran for other Office
Lost Primary
112th
113th
114th
Lost General
22
7 ELECTION
CONCLUSIONS
23
#1. Education is the New Cultural Divide
States Where More Voters Have Advanced Degrees Go Dem, Fewer GOP
State
District of Columbia
Massachusetts
Maryland
Connecticut
Virginia
New York
Vermont
New Jersey
Colorado
Illinois
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Hampshire
Washington
California
Oregon
New Mexico
Minnesota
United States average
Kansas
Pennsylvania
Hawaii
Georgia
Maine
Missouri
Michigan
Source: Census Bureau
% Advanced
Rank
degree
28.00%
16.40%
16.00%
15.50%
14.10%
14.00%
13.30%
12.90%
12.70%
11.70%
11.70%
11.40%
11.20%
11.10%
10.70%
10.40%
10.40%
10.30%
10.30%
10.20%
10.20%
9.90%
9.90%
9.60%
9.50%
9.40%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
11
12
14
15
16
16
18
-19
19
21
21
23
24
25
State
Arizona
Utah
Alaska
Florida
Nebraska
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas
Kentucky
Wisconsin
South Carolina
Montana
Indiana
Wyoming
Tennessee
Alabama
Nevada
Idaho
Iowa
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Mississippi
Louisiana
North Dakota
West Virginia
Arkansas
% Advanced
Rank
degree
9.30%
9.10%
9.00%
9.00%
8.80%
8.80%
8.80%
8.50%
8.50%
8.40%
8.40%
8.30%
8.10%
7.90%
7.90%
7.70%
7.60%
7.50%
7.40%
7.40%
7.30%
7.10%
6.90%
6.70%
6.70%
6.10%
26
27
28
28
30
31
32
33
33
35
35
37
38
39
39
40
41
42
43
43
45
46
47
48
48
50
24
#2. Everything We Thought We Knew About Campaigns…
More Paid Staff
More Field Offices
More Voters Contacted
More Money Raised
More TV Ads Run
Better Analytics
More Debate Prep
More Popular Surrogates
25
3. Newspaper Endorsements Don’t Matter
Share of General Election Newspaper Endorsements
Democrat
2016
Third Party
Republican
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
26
#4. This Ain’t Your Father’s GOP
Trump Changing the GOP Agenda
Leftward
Oppose Trade Deals
within GOP mainstream
Broad Tax Cuts
Rightward
Crack Down on Immigration
Punish Wall Street
Unfettered 2nd Amendment
Reject Refugees
Reject Entitlement Reforms
Muscular Military
Resist Criminal Justice Reforms
27
#5. Populism Is the New Normal
Skepticism Towards
“Big Business”
Globalization
“Re-Think”
Push for Systemic
“Reforms”
More aggressive oversight
More aggressive trade enforcement
Alternative media empowered
Tougher Antitrust Oversight
Tougher reviews of in-bound M&A
“Tax-the-rich” / Fair Share
Anti-Crony Capitalism Meets
Too Big To Fail
Existing Relationships at Risk
Restrict Lobbying by exMembers
28
#6. Everything is On the Record
29
#7. Why This Election Will Leave a Mark
Annus Horriblis, By the Numbers
62% have unfavorable view of incoming President, highest in history (Gallup)
8 in 10 voters say campaign left them repulsed rather than excited. (NYT/CBS)
81% of Evangelicals embraced a candidate who committed each of the “seven deadly
sins” (greed, lust, gluttony, hubris, wrath, vainglory & sloth) during the campaign. (Exit poll)
84% of Liberals championed a candidate who intentionally frustrated transparency in
government & made millions from Wall Street, multinationals and foreign entities weak on
human rights. (Exit poll)
A majority of elected officials in both political parties believes the FBI inappropriately
politicized its investigations.
82% of voters believe the Mainstream Media was biased in its coverage (Suffolk)
75 ongoing lawsuits involve President-Elect Trump (Media Matters)
Sources listed.
30
The Road Ahead
31
The Road Ahead:
Key Periods Between Elections
Nov. 8 – Dec. 9
Lame Duck Session
Fund government into 2017; Defense;
rest TBD
695 Days Until the 2018
Midterm Elections
(from 11/30/16)
“First 100 Days”
Roll out Cabinet & SCOTUS nominations; Undo
Obama Executive Orders & Regulations;
Introduce signature legislative initiatives
115th Congress
Major early actions include March 15th Debt
Ceiling & Budget Reconciliation process
32
Lame Duck: What Gets Done?
16 Legislative Days scheduled post-election
(Nov. 14-17; Nov. 29-Dec. 8; Dec. 13-16 tbd)
Must Do
Strong Chance
FY17 funding
(CR into Q1 2017)
Pick Committee chairs &
member assignments
Water Resources
Development Act + Flint
Mine workers’
pension reform
Leadership elections
National Defense
Authorization Act (NDAA)
(+CA wild fire relief)
Energy Bill
Veterans
Administration reform
Fix JASTA
(passed over veto)
“Orphaned” tax
extenders
Mental Health
School Nutrition
Cures / Innovation health
research
Post Office
reauthorization
Privacy: Block Rule 41
change; ECPA & ECTR
Medicare reforms
(HOPD, Pt. B)
Defense supplemental /
Emergency spending
Possible
33
First Two Years Are Critical
Crime Bill; Brady Bill; Assault
Weapons Ban; 100,000 cops
NAFTA; GATT
Reinventing Gov’t Initiative
Deficit Reduction Bill (tax hike)
AmeriCorps
Family & Medical Leave Act
No Child Left Behind
$787B Stimulus package
2001 Tax Cuts (10-year cuts)
Affordable Care Act
Patriot Act; DHS Bill
Dodd-Frank
US-Russia Nuclear Arms deal
2010 Tax Deal
FTAs launched/concluded:
Singapore, Chile, Australia,
Morocco, CAFTA
Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act
34
Unified Control Usually Means More Legislation
Number of Laws Made by Congress
700
Congress/ WH united (avg. 461)
600
500
Congress split (avg. 321)
604
Congress opposed to WH (avg. 397)
504
473
404
400
383
483
460
385
337
300
284
296
243
200
100
0
1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
Source: GovTrack.us in CQ/Roll Call
35
Areas Ripe for Significant Legislation in 2017
 Tax Reform (repatriation) + Infrastructure
 Securing the Borders / Legal Immigration
 Trade Enforcement
 Repeal & Replace ACA
 Domestic Energy Production
 Telecom Act Modernization & Cyber
 Debt Ceiling / Sequestration Relief
 Dodd-Frank Reform
36
Trump Regulatory Agenda = Reversing Obama Regs+
Live by the Phone & Pen, Die by the Phone & Pen
OBAMA ACTIONS AT RISK
 ENERGY & CLIMATE



Paris Climate Accords
EPA Clean Power Initiative
Keystone pipeline
 TAX & FINANCIAL SERVICES



Treasury §385 regulations
Fiduciary Rule
Volker Rule
 LABOR




NLRB /DOL – Overtime Rule
Joint Employer Liability Standard
Persuader Rule
Contractor disclosure
 HEALTH CARE

ACA implementation delays
TRUMP ACTIONS EXPECTED
 TRADE



Import tariffs
New thresholds for countervailing &
anti-dumping duties via
Declare currency manipulation
 IMMIGRATION




Accelerate deportations ~2x (to 500k)
Cut-off fed’l grants to sanctuary cities
Slow pace of legal visas
Increase prevailing wage via new
formula
 HEALTH CARE


Move towards premium support
model, possibly thru CMMI authority
Expedite state Medicaid wavers
 TELECOM & TECH
 ENERGY & CLIMATE
 OTHER
 TAX & FINANCIAL SERVICES





Net Neutrality
Business Data Services re-regulation
DHS enforcement & deportations
Gun control
LGBT rights




Expedite leasing on fed’l lands
Reform RFS
Overturn Estate Tax regulations
Replace CFPB director; change in
enforcement
37
New Players Guarantee Energetic Action
4,115 New Policy Makers
Key Changes in the
House of Representatives
464
1054
•
•
•
1392
~60 Freshman Members
New GOP Chairs: Appropriations, Ed
& Workforce, Energy & Commerce,
Veterans Affairs Committees
New DEM Ranking Members:
Budget & Veterans Affairs
525
Key Changes in U.S. Senate
680
President-Appointed, Senate-Confirmed
President-Appointed, No Confirmation
Non-career Executive Service
•
•
6 Freshman Senators
New GOP Chairs: Banking, EPW,
(more as Senators join Administration)
•
New DEM Ranking Sens:
Appropriations, Budget, EPW, HELP,
Homeland Security
Confidential or policy-determining role
Non-competitive positions by law
Source: Partnership for Public Service in CQ/Roll Call
38
Key Congressional Dynamics in 2017
Confirmation Crisis Coming?
GOP Civil War Resolved (for now)
Avg. # "nays" cast per Cabinet confirmation vote
29.3
30
25
20
15.6
15
13
10
4.7
7.5
3
2018 Battlefield Favors GOP
114th
113th
112th
110th
109th
108th
0
107th
106th
103rd
105th
0
1.8 1
0
104th
0
102nd
4.5
101st
2.3
100th
98th
99th
4.6
3.1
97th
0.8
96th
0
3.5
95th
5
7.3
111th
10
Dem Civil War Commencing
25 Ds, 8 Rs up
39
To be added to our distribution: [email protected]
is one of the nation’s most innovative
government relations firms, offering strategic
solutions to companies, trade associations,
non-profits, and entrepreneurs that help them
succeed in Washington.
http://www.mehlmancastagnetti.com/