Tomahawks fired, now think about a new Middle East

4/10/2017
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John Bolton: Tomahawks fired, now think about a new Middle East | News | The Times & The Sunday Times
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TRUMP GOES TO WAR
John Bolton: Tomahawks fired, now
think about a new Middle East
The strikes on Assad and the routing of Isis could lead to Iran’s
isolation and the redrawing of Syria and Iraq
John Bolton
April 9 2017, 12:01am, The Sunday Times
Assad: Syria’s Sunnis will not accept him as their leader again
SANA/REUTERS
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The Obama era in American foreign policy ended in Syria in the
early hours there on April 7. Donald Trump’s prompt, calibrated
and devastating assault on the airbase from which al-Assad’s
dictatorship launched planes loaded with chemical weapons to
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murder innocent civilians was a fire bell in the night for all of
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april 10 2017present
and potential adversaries.
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Whether Syria (and perhaps Russia) thought they would get
away with the renewed use of chemical weapons based on
media perceptions of Trump’s national security proclivities, we
may never know. But his response has demonstrated that
Trump will do what he believes is necessary when America’s
security is threatened.
Vladimir Putin and perhaps even US Democrats will now realise
there is no puppet of Moscow in the White House.
Iran and North Korea should take due note of the eżects of 59
well-aimed Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles (“T-LAMs” in
our jargon: they should become familiar with it).
No Hollywood scriptwriter could have imagined a scenario
where Trump orders the attack and then sits down to dinner
with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and their wives.
Welcome to the American way of war.
There is no doubt that Trump’s limited and precise attack was
fully justified. Syria was a party to the chemical weapons
convention, as is the United States. Whenever any party to a
treaty that forbids the use or proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction breaches its commitments, that constitutes a threat
to American national security.
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John Bolton: Tomahawks fired, now think about a new Middle East | News | The Times & The Sunday Times
Alleged civilian casualties in Iraq and Syria
monday april 10 2017
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casualties
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defined as an incident that has had a reasonable level of
public reporting from two or more generally credible
sources and a confirmed coalition strike in the vicinity
300
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100
Source: Airwars.org
Critics in Washington who argue that the president needs
congressional authorisation should study their constitutional
history.
In the immediate aftermath of the strike, many will ask only
what is next for Syria. In fact, the geostrategic question is far
broader, encompassing nearly the entire Middle East.
Two important politico-military factors have changed
dramatically since Trump took o寰ce.
First, unlike Barack Obama, Trump has no concern that his
actions in Syria, especially those directed against Assad, will
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John Bolton: Tomahawks fired, now think about a new Middle East | News | The Times & The Sunday Times
adversely ażect the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump’s criticisms
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mondayof
april
10 deal
2017
that
are abundantly clear.
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Second, and perhaps even more important now, we are rapidly
approaching the point of eliminating the Isis “caliphate” in what
used to be Syria and Iraq. It behoves Washington and all other
concerned parties to think hard about what will replace the
vacuum created when Isis’s territory is liberated.
It is especially important to structure the Isis defeat to minimise
the upside advantages for the Iran-led coalition, which includes
the pro-Iran Baghdad regime, Assad’s Syria and Lebanon’s
Hezbollah terrorists.
Russia is allied with this coalition, openly so in the case of Syria
where Russia has a naval base at Tartus and a new airbase at
Latakia.
We should not think only in terms of an either/or outcome in
Syria: either Assad goes or Assad stays. There may be other
outcomes, including partitioning Syria (and Iraq), leaving Assad
in control only of what has been called “the Alawite enclave”.
Complex, seemingly intractable issues lie ahead, as the postFirst World War Middle East order collapses, but they cannot be
ignored under the complacent assumption that Syria and Iraq
will simply re-emerge as the states they were before the illnamed Arab Spring and the equally ill-fated US decision to
withdraw its forces from Iraq, both in 2011.
The Kurds are already de facto independent from Iraq and no
one will force them back into Iraq against their will. Sunni
Arabs will never happily submit to a government in Baghdad
dominated by a Shi’ite population outnumbering them three to
one and dominated by Tehran.
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Similarly, Syrian Sunnis will not accept Assad as their ruler
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april 10To
2017
believe
otherwise is to ignore that such outcomes will
simply precipitate further conflict and more extremism.
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The main issue is to keep the aspiring nuclear weapons state
Iran, still the central banker of international terrorism, from
emerging in an even more menacing regional position.
Weakening Assad’s forces — and reminding Tehran implicitly of
what Washington did to Saddam Hussein in 2003 — can only
improve the regional prospects for stability. The lesson is that
American strength is a force for international peace and
security and American weakness an incentive for the world’s
predators.
April 6, the day in US time when Trump ordered the strike
against Syria, marked the 100th anniversary of America’s entry
into the First World War.
We never asked for global responsibilities, but when it mattered
we acted and we acted justly. Let America’s critics around the
world think on that. I am particularly proud to be an American
today.
John Bolton was the American ambassador to the UN, 2005-6
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Philip Woolf 19 hours ago
Three incredibly important comments here in this excellent article.
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