Measures, Metrics and
Indices of Sustainability
A presentation for the 2009 Whitney and Ann
Harris Conservation Forum
Sustainable Agriculture: From Field to Market
November 12, 2009
Marty Matlock, Ph.D., P.E., C.S.E.
Professor of Ecological Engineering and Director
Center for Agricultural and Rural Sustainability
University of Arkansas
Everything is Connected
Source: Ricklefs
Economy of Nature
Everything is changing
Thresholds Crossed:
• Biodiversity Loss
• Nitrogen Cycle
• Climate Change
Thresholds Approaching:
• Phosphorus Cycle
• Land Use Change
• Ocean Acidification
• Global Freshwater Use
From Rockstrom et al., 2009.
A Safe Place for Humanity,
Nature, 461(24Sep2009): 472-475
We’re all in this together
http://media.photobucket.com/image/poverty/chenpn/thegivinghands/poverty1.jpg
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
Population (Billions)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
12
Population (Billions)
Projected with current fertility rates
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
Population (Billions)
12
10
8
Median Estimate
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
Population (Billions)
12
What we do
will determine
the prosperity
of our species
for hundreds of
years
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Growth in More versus Less
Developed Countries
Billions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Less Developed Regions
2
1
0
1950
More Developed Regions
1970
1990
2010
2030
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2050
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
• By 2050 we will share Earth with approximately 9.25
billion souls
• That means we will need to increase food production by
as much as 50% just to maintain current levels of
prosperity
• The good news is that for the first time in human history,
we will have a population that is stable to declining
globally.
• The challenge is to maintain the resources necessary to
secure human prosperity beyond 2050.
• We may be losing ground…
Ecological Services
Ecological Services are those things we derive from
ecosystems directly or indirectly. The Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment divided ecological services into
four categories:
1. Provisioning Services
2. Regulating Services
3. Cultural Services
4. Supporting Services
60 percent of Earth’s ecological services are in peril
30 percent of Earth’s ecological services are in decline
Ecological Services
Ecological Services In Decline
The critical issues identified by the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment:
The dire state of many of the world’s fish stocks;
The intense vulnerability of the 2 billion people living
in dry regions to the loss of ecosystem services,
including water supply; and
The growing threat to ecosystems from climate
change and nutrient pollution.
Habitat Loss to 1990
Mediterranean Forests
Temperate Grasslands &
Woodlands
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Tropical Dry Forest
Tropical Grasslands
Tropical Coniferous Forest
Tropical Moist Forest
0
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
50
Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
100
Year of Peak Fish Harvest
Pre-peak
Harvest peak
Post-peak
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project
Year of Peak Fish Harvest
Pre-peak
Harvest peak
Post-peak
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project
Worldwide extent
of human land-use
and land-cover
change
J. A. Foley et al.,
Science 309, 570
-574 (2005)
Published by AAAS
Conceptual framework for comparing land
use and trade-offs of ecosystem services
Published by AAAS
J. A. Foley et al., Science 309, 570 -574 (2005)
Human Activities Dominate Earth
Croplands and pastures are the largest terrestrial biome, occupying over
40% of Earth’s land surface
Water Scarcity – Hydrologic and Economic
Defining Sustainability
"Sustainable development is development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.”
Brundtland Commission Report, 1987
"Sustainable agriculture meets the needs of the present while
enhancing the ability of future generations to meet their
needs.”
The Field to Market Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture 2008
Measuring Sustainability
Measuring: The act of quantifying a phenomena
Metrics: Quantifiable phenomena to measure an
endpoint
Index: Aggregation of metrics to a single number,
requires normative criteria for integration of metrics
with different units
Baseline: Benchmark used to measure change over
time
Measuring What Matters
Outcomes are what matter.
Processes do not matter
Methods do not matter
Technologies do not matter
We should measure outcomes.
Metrics for outcomes should be based on
science
Indices should reflect values
The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture
Report on Row Crop Status, January 2009
Source: Keystone Center, Keystone CO
The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture
Report on Row Crop Status, January 2009
Resources, Emissions and Social Issues
Associated with 10,000 bales of cotton
Resource or Issue
Land (acres)
Water (1000 cubic feet)
Percent from irrigation
Energy (million BTU)*
Labor (hours)*
Child labor a risk?
GHG Emissions (ton CO2e)*
Enhanced insect resistance
Biodegradable
Global Average
7,062
653,928
50%
54,955
372,700
Mixed
6,744
Mixed
Yes
U.S. Average
5,768
403,200
26%
42,082
38,700
No
4,320
Yes
Yes
Sustainability Ethic – sort of
A thing is right when it tends to preserve the
integrity, stability and beauty of the biotic
community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise.
- Aldo Leopold
We shall never achieve harmony with land, any
more than we shall achieve absolute justice or
liberty for people. In these higher aspirations, the
important thing is not to achieve but to strive.
- Aldo Leopold