1 Do taste and quality perception influence 2 consumer preferences for wood? 3 An econometric model with latent variables 4 Sandrine Costa, Serge Garcia, Liette Ibanez, LEF 5 November 2009 6 Abstract: 7 The aim of our article is to understand consumer preferences for wood and competitive ma- 8 terials. Assuming that a wood product is composed of various attributes, we consider that 9 consumers’ choices are not guided by observed characteristics but, instead, by the quality per- 10 ception consumers have of these attributes. An econometric model integrating this factor by 11 means of latent variables allows us to analyze the influence of individual characteristics and in- 12 formation (external sources and/or experience) on product quality perception. We also include 13 consumers’ attitudes in the model by supposing that the importance consumers place on at- 14 tributes accurately describes their tastes. Data on material choices (wood vs. vinyl) for window 15 frames validate our assumptions. 16 Keywords: quality perception, information, taste, latent variable model, wood. 17 JEL Classification: C25, D12, L15 1 18 1 Introduction 19 Benefits derived from wood is a key factor in the competition between wood and non-wood 20 products. However, these benefits are not necessarily directly observable by consumers when 21 they decide to purchase a product. Indeed consumers might possess different knowledge and 22 possess different information sources. As a consequence their perception of benefits derived from 23 the product varies. The aim of our article is to understand in what extent demand for wood 24 products is determined by perception, experience and information on wood characteristics. To do 25 so, we build an econometric model of purchase decision that captures the impact of information 26 acquisition on consumers preferences. 27 A consumer’s decision to purchase an article depends on his/her product preferences. Gen- 28 erally, a product is considered to be composed of several attributes (Lancaster, 1966). In Lan- 29 caster’s approach, consumers attach importance to attributes rather than the product itself. 30 However, the quality level of each product attribute is supposed to be identical across all con- 31 sumers, as well as known by all consumers. Lancaster argues that the utility derived from a 32 product is equal to the sum of utilities derived from all the product’s attributes. 33 Our analysis is inspired by McFadden (1986) who integrated psychological factors into con- 34 sumer choice decisions. We consider that consumer preferences for a product are determined by 35 two “non usual” factors. First, we assume that consumers can be differentiated by the impor- 36 tance they place on product attributes in their purchase decision. We refer to these observed 37 variables as attribute weights or tastes. Tastes reflect individual needs and values, and explain 38 consumer heterogeneity. Second, the quality level of each attribute is an endogenous and non- 39 observed variable. We assume that each consumer forms a quality perception for each attribute 40 and might judge the quality level of attributes differently for differentiated products. As noted 2 41 by Ben-Akiva et al. (2002, p.448), “Perceptions are the individual’s beliefs or estimates of the 42 levels of attributes of the alternatives”. Along this article, we will speak of quality perception 43 as the estimated quality level by consumers on product attributes. 44 A consumer’s quality perception is highly influenced by the information he or she possesses, 45 and the way information influences the quality perception depends on the type of product 46 attribute considered. For experience attributes (Nelson, 1974), previous purchase and/or con- 47 sumption might be enough to evaluate the real level of quality whereas for credence attributes 48 other types of information could be more successful. In reality, consumers can access various 49 sources of information, such as advertising, information disclosure by consumers groups, direct 50 contact with professionals, or product purchase. 51 An important literature focuses on consumer preferences and competition between wood and 52 non-wood products (or species) with an application to structural framing materials (Eastin et 53 al., 2001; Garth et al., 2004; Shook et al., 2007), furniture markets (Forbes et al., 2001a, 2001b; 54 Wu and Vlosky, 2000; Olah et al., 2003), and floor covering (Jonsson, 2005, 2006). These studies 55 base their approach on the Lancaster’s model of product attributes. Among these studies, Shook 56 et al. (2007) use discrete choice modeling to analyze the substitution between North-American 57 softwood timber species, in the context of trade disputes between the U.S. and Canada. Jonsson 58 (2006) uses Customer Satisfaction Modeling and latent variables to assess customer needs in the 59 context of floor covering. However, both papers do not take into account that consumers have 60 biased knowledge and information on product characteristics. 61 Environmental considerations become more and more important in public policy making. For 62 example, in France the government aims to increase the wood share in the French construction 63 sector by 25 percent (in value terms). Wood use in production has a certain global advantage 3 64 as it reduces environmental damages (renewal resource, carbon dioxide sequestration, etc.) in 65 comparison to other materials such as plastic or steal. So far, various policies to encourage the 66 use of wood have been implemented, such as mandatory increase in the share of wood-material 67 in public procurements, architect training programs to use wood, consumer information via TV 68 commercials and advertisements in newspapers. The aim of our work is to set up a framework to 69 analyze the purchase decision with respect to knowledge, experience and information on product 70 characteristics. From a policy point of view the framework could help to implement targeted 71 information policies or educational programs. 72 Our data concern hypothetical purchase choices for specific materials (vinyl and wood) in 73 the French window market. We assume that consumers do not necessarily place the same 74 values on these window materials. A window is composed of various attributes, such as acoustic 75 and thermal insulation, product life, and environmental characteristics. Since most window 76 attributes are not observable before purchase, consumers possess imperfect information and 77 assess the quality of materials based on their information sources and experience. The assessment 78 of the quality of each attribute depends on the material, and thus influences the global quality 79 perception for each material. These perceived qualities are introduced into the model as latent 80 variables. Our methodology is general and can be applied to any situation with discrete choice 81 behavior where products are characterized by several attributes for which quality is not directly 82 observable and where indicators exist, that is, observable variables related to information and 83 product experience that might determine quality perception. 84 This paper is organized as follows. First, we present the assumptions of our model for 85 latent variables (quality perceptions) and discuss the modifications made with respect to the 86 existing literature. Second, the econometric methodology is described. A two-step estimation 4 87 procedure is adopted: we first estimate the latent variable model, and then the predicted latent 88 variables are introduced into a discrete choice model. Third, data on material choices in the 89 French window market are used to show that endogenous quality levels of product attributes 90 provide a meaningful explanation of the choice decision of consumers. Finally, we conclude 91 that consumers have different quality perceptions of materials depending on the information 92 they possess on product attributes and we discuss the importance of information campaigns to 93 modify purchase decisions. 94 2 95 The purpose of this paper is to construct an econometric model that explains consumers’ pur- 96 chase decisions by simultaneously integrating perceived product quality (latent variables) and 97 tastes (observable variables). This methodology allows to better understand consumer prefer- 98 ences for quality supposing that individual beliefs (on quality) are based on private information 99 and experience. Attributes and quality perception in product choice 100 In the economic literature on transportation, latent preferences have been introduced into 101 mode choice models (Ben-Akiva et al., 2002). For instance, Johansson et al. (2006) argue 102 that people have different attitudes towards environmental considerations, safety, comfort, con- 103 venience and flexibility, and that this has an important impact on the consumer’s choice of 104 transportation. The introduction of attitudinal and behavioral indicator variables makes it 105 possible to construct a more precise choice model. Marketing studies attempt to establish the 106 link between perceived value and consumer behavior. Indeed, the perception of product quality 107 depends, in part, on the messages and information transmitted to consumers. Depending on 108 the amount and quality of information, consumers might react differently in terms of consump5 109 tion behavior. Swait and Sweeney (2000) showed that the utility of buying a specific product 110 is conditional on the type of consumer. They proposed segmenting consumer behavior into 111 groups possessing specific behavior characteristics. Ben-Akiva et al. (2002) proposed a general 112 methodology for including latent variables such as attitudes and perceptions in choice models. 113 The methodology integrates a discrete choice model and a latent variable model, each one con- 114 sisting of structural and measurement equations. The basic assumption in their methodology is 115 that observable explanatory variables simultaneously explain utility and latent variables. 116 We adopted a similar model but also integrated substantial modifications. The set up of 117 our model is outlined in Figure 1. Observed variables are represented in rectangles, whereas 118 unobservable (or latent) variables are represented in ellipses. Solid arrows represent structural 119 equations which correspond to cause-and-effect relationships. The relationships between observ- 120 able indicators and latent variables are represented by dashed arrows. 121 122 [Figure 1 here] 123 124 We can see that all observed explanatory variables do not affect the same latent endogenous 125 variables. In particular, variables related to information possessed by consumers, which we 126 call V 1 , only explain quality perception of products Z ∗ and not utility U ∗ directly, contrary to 127 Ben-Akiva et al. (2002). Quality perception is a determinant of consumer utility and based 128 on quality indicators I. As with classical choice models, utility is also explained by individual 129 characteristic variables referred to as V 2 and V 3 in Figure 1 (see Section 4 for a description of 130 variables). Therefore, consumer preferences, which simultaneously depend on tastes for different 131 attributes and product quality perception, determine consumer product choices. 6 132 Moreover, we suppose in our model that consumer heterogeneity is observable, contrary to the 133 framework of Ben-Akiva et al. (2002), and more generally to models that focus only on consumer 134 tastes through latent classes (for a review of the literature, see Greene 2001). The observed 135 variable is the weight consumers give to attributes in their purchase decision, referred to as W 136 in Figure 1. We assume that the weight that consumers give to attributes accurately describes 137 their tastes. The assumption refers to location or differentiation models (Hotelling, 1929; Mussa 138 and Rosen, 1979) where consumers are differentiated by their preferences for product quality 139 generally represented by their revenue, taste or travel distance. 140 In our study, we want to focus on preferences for product characteristics and exclude the 141 product price from their demand decision. Thus, in our survey, respondents were requested 142 to make a product choice considering that products are sold at identical prices. Technically, 143 product choices depend on the difference between perceived utility. In the case where prices 144 are assumed to be identical, product price is no longer an explanatory variable for the product 145 choice.[1] We should notice that, in reality, for a same standard window frame, prices vary 146 considerably as they are sold with different services. However, the price interval for wooden 147 and plastic window frames do largely overlap. The consumer’s choice is then only based on 148 the technical properties of products, and price need not to be considered in our econometric 149 set up. This assumption allows us to concentrate mainly on non-directly observable product 150 attributes for which consumers might have different quality perceptions. The model aims to 151 link the consumer’s knowledge about product attributes with his or her quality perception and 152 tries to see in what way information campaigns could orientate the consumer’s choices. 7 153 3 154 The integrated model described in the previous section is composed of two parts: a standard 155 discrete choice model and a latent variable model that is defined to carry out the treatment and 156 the prediction of latent perception variables. The latent variable model (or structural equation 157 model, SEM) consists of structural latent variable equations and measurement equations. The 158 discrete choice model is composed of a structural equation and a decision rule equation. 159 3.1 160 The latent variable model has been popularized by the LISREL program – Linear Structural 161 Relationship (Jöreskog 1979; Jöreskog and Sörbom 1982). The latent variables are modeled 162 by specifying a structural model and a measurement model. In general, the structural latent 163 variable equations specify the relationship between endogenous and exogenous latent variables. 164 However, it is also possible, as in our analysis, to include exogenous observed variables as part 165 of these structural equations. The measurement equations specify the relationship between the 166 measured indicators and the latent variables.[2] 167 168 Econometric methodology The latent variable model Assuming a linear specification, the structural latent variable equations written in matrix form are: 169 Z ∗ = V 1 β + ǫZ , 170 where Z ∗ is a vector of latent (or non observed) variables of quality perception and beliefs. V 1 171 is a vector of (observed) explanatory variables related to the information held by the consumer, 172 β is the matrix of unknown parameters to be estimated, and ǫZ is the error vector i.i.d. (0, ΣZ ). 173 As mentioned above, unlike the study of Ben-Akiva et al. (2002), V 1 are specific regressors of 8 (1) 174 175 Z ∗. The set of measurement equations is defined as follows: 176 I = Z ∗ γ + ǫI , 177 where I is a vector of measured indicators of perceived quality, γ is the matrix of unknown 178 parameters to be estimated, and ǫI is the measurement error vector i.i.d. (0, ΣI ). 179 (2) Our latent variable model is detailed in Appendix A.2. 180 3.2 The discrete choice model 181 The decision rule consists of a stated choice depending on the latent utility U ∗ : y= 182 1 if U ∗ = Uwood − Uvinyl ≥ 0 0 otherwise, (3) 183 where y = 1 if the respondent chooses wood as the material for his/her windows, and y = 0 184 if he/she prefers vinyl. U ∗ is the latent utility difference between utility for wood (Uwood ) and 185 utility for vinyl (Uvinyl ). 186 As in many empirical studies, the structural utility function is assumed to be linear: 187 U ∗ = XαX + Z ∗ αZ + W αW + ǫU . 188 Utility depends on observed explanatory variables (X), including socio-demographic variables 189 (V 2 ) and behavioral variables related to housing (V 3 ) in our analysis. However, utility also 190 depends on latent variables of quality perception (Z ∗ ) and taste factors (W ). W is a vector of 9 (4) 191 (observed) weights allocated to the commodity characteristics, and encompasses consumer tastes 192 and attitudes. The introduction of such variables is the other important difference with respect 193 to the model of Ben-Akiva et al. (2002). αX , αZ , αW are the parameter vectors associated 194 with these variables. Assuming that the distribution of the error term ǫU is standard normal, 195 we estimate a Probit model that represents the respondent’s choice of material: P (y = 1) = Φ(XαX + Z ∗ αZ + W αW ), 196 (5) 197 where Φ(.) is the standard normal cumulative distribution function. 198 3.3 199 As in the case of Johansson et al. (2006), we chose to estimate the interest parameters in two 200 steps. First, the latent variable model, equations (1) and (2), and the associated parameters 201 are estimated. This particularity allows us to compute the predicted values of latent variables 202 (perception variables). The framework for modeling and estimation of the variable latent model 203 is based on the LISREL program. This is a hybrid technique that encompasses aspects of 204 confirmatory factor analysis, path analysis and regression. The estimation of our model is 205 described in Appendix A.2. Second, we transfer the predicted perception variables into the 206 choice model, equations (3) and (4), and the resulting model is then estimated, conditional on 207 the perception variables (as well as other explanatory variables V 2 and V 3 , and taste factors 208 W ). Estimation method 209 We decided to adopt a two-step method and to specifically analyze the latent variable model 210 for several reasons. First, SEM and associated programs are powerful tools that make it possible 211 to take into account interactions, correlated independent variables and error terms, measure10 212 ment errors, multiple latent variables each measured by multiple indicators. Second, a two-step 213 method allows a good adjustment of the latent variable model. Finally, it allows us to specifically 214 study the reliability of indicators for latent perception and to better understand how information 215 influences quality perception for materials, which is the focus of our paper. 216 The two-step estimation procedure that consists in transferring the fitted latent variables into 217 the utility function may pose two problems. First, as noted in Ben-Akiva et al. (2002), the fitted 218 latent variables may introduce measurement error in an explanatory variable of the second-step 219 regression. If the measurement error is uncorrelated with the observed (fitted) measure of the 220 latent variable but correlated with the latent variable itself, then the two-step estimation pro- 221 duces consistent estimators of all regression parameters (Wooldridge, 2002). This is the usual 222 assumption of applied econometricians when dealing with generated regressors (Pagan, 1984). 223 In the opposite case (correlation with the fitted latent variable), this results in inconsistent esti- 224 mates of the parameters. However, if the variance of the latent variable’s random error is small, 225 then a sufficiently large sample size may reduce the measurement error and result in acceptable 226 parameter estimates. We might suppose that generated regressors do not pose problems of in- 227 consistency as usually done. However, we will still check in the empirical application that the 228 variance of the error for the latent variable is sufficiently small. 229 Second, the presence of a generated regressor generally produces invalid standard errors and 230 test statistics because these latter ignore the sampling variation in the estimated parameter 231 associated with the generated regressor (Wooldridge, 2002). Two alternative solutions are com- 232 monly used in this case : deriving the asymptotic distribution of the two-step estimator for an 233 equation with a generated regressors or using bootstrap standard errors. We will use this latter 234 solution. 11 235 4 Application: Choice of materials (wood vs. vinyl) in the French window frame market 236 237 4.1 Data 238 All the data used here are from a specific survey on consumer tastes and beliefs about windows. 239 The survey was conducted by a marketing agency[3] in November 2003, and concerned a set of 240 968 consumers representative of the French population drawn from a stratified sample frame. 241 940 participants remained after eliminating individuals with missing data. The survey was done 242 by phone. Respondents were informed that the survey aimed to better understand consumer 243 behavior towards window purchase and was used for scientific (and non commercial) purposes. 244 No other information concerning windows were given. 245 The survey included six types of data: 246 • knowledge that individuals possess about attributes and their quality (variables referred 247 to as V 1 ). Knowledge was supposed either to be obtained through experience. Experience 248 was derived from the window material (wood, vinyl, aluminum, etc.) in their place of 249 residence, window age, how they would classify the insulation (e.g., thermal, acoustic) 250 and brightness of their home. Or knowledge is also supposed to be dependent on private 251 external information sources. Respondents were asked whether they felt informed about 252 the windows and about materials or whether they had been informed on windows recently. 253 • Socio-demographic characteristics of individuals (variables referred to as V 2 ): age, gender, 254 255 socio-professional group (SPG), family composition. • Lodging characteristics of individuals (variables referred to as V 3 ): type of housing (e.g., 12 256 house, apartment), building style of their housing (classic, modern, typical), importance 257 (with a five-point Likert scale) attached to the home. 258 • Consumer tastes for product attributes (weight W ): Table 2 describes the importance 259 consumers attribute to window attributes into their product choice. We considered several 260 attributes of a window: thermal insulation, acoustic insulation, maintenance, product life, 261 aesthetics, environmental properties, fire resistance and safety. The choice of the attributes 262 was based on interviews with architects and confirmed by scientific studies (Eastin et al., 263 2004). 264 • Quality perception of product attributes (quality indicators I), which was analyzed for all 265 attributes and for each material (wood and vinyl). Table 1 describes consumers’ perception 266 for window attributes according to the material (wood or vinyl). 267 268 • Stated choice y based on the question: “Suppose that wooden windows and vinyl windows are sold at the same price, which material would you choose?” 269 Table A.6 in Appendix A.1 presents summary statistics and a description of variables V 1 , 270 V 2 , V 3 and y. All answers concerning judgments are rated on a 1 to 5 scale (Likert scale) where 271 1 corresponds to a low appreciation and 5 to a high one, and 3 indicates indifference. 272 273 [Table 1 here] 274 275 Table 1 shows that consumers value differently window characteristics for wood and vinyl. 276 In general, vinyl windows are perceived to have a (very) high thermal and acoustic insulation. 277 Vinyl windows are considered to be easier to maintain than wooden windows. On the opposite, 13 278 wooden windows are perceived to be highly aesthetic and environmental-friendly. Respondents 279 seemed to underestimate the thermal and acoustic value of wood. Thus, beliefs about technical 280 properties of wood are sometimes false, which is less frequently the case for vinyl. One of 281 the explanations for this result could be the experience of respondents with rather old (not 282 necessarily well maintained) wooden windows which, in most cases, are not double glazed. The 283 basic assumption of our model on equal prices (i.e., respondents were supposed to consider the 284 vinyl window price to be equal to the wooden window price) seems to be adequate. Consumers 285 value wooden and vinyl windows similarly. Moreover in both cases, the price is not a good 286 indicator of the quality of a window (only significantly different from zero for the vinyl windows), 287 see Table 3. We will come back to this assumption in the estimation of the choice model. 288 Table 2 also gives precious information. First of all, respondents did not consider price to 289 be the most important criteria in a window purchase. Second, environmental considerations are 290 least important in consumers purchase decisions. Characteristics that are perceived to be very 291 good for vinyl windows, such as thermal and acoustic insulation or maintenance, are the most 292 important factors when buying a window. 293 294 [Table 2 here] 295 4.2 Results 296 4.2.1 297 The latent variable model consists of a structural model and a measurement model. Both models 298 are simultaneously estimated by a LISREL-type structural equation modeling program.[4] The 299 first part of the latent variable model is composed of two latent variables Z1∗ (quality perception The latent variable model 14 300 of wood) and Z2∗ (quality perception of vinyl) explained by variables V 1 (see in the upper part 301 of Table 3 for variables retained in the empirical application). The second part of the latent 302 variable model deals with the measurement equations (see the lower part of Table 3). Ten qual- 303 ity indicators are used to predict latent perceived quality variables. A χ2 statistic built on the 304 discrepancy function gives a good indication of the model fit. For our model, the test statistic 305 is equal to 2081.75 with 319 degrees of freedom. Its p-value is less than 0.0001. The goodness 306 of fit index (GFI) is close to 1 (with a value of 0.8416). Moreover, the root mean square error 307 of approximation (RMSEA) is equal to 0.0767. These measures indicate that the model fits the 308 data well. 309 310 [Table 3 here] 311 Estimation results of latent variable equations One objective of this paper was to bet- 312 ter understand how quality beliefs are formed and, more precisely, if knowledge on windows 313 and materials (obtained either through experience or by external information sources) changes 314 quality beliefs. In the upper part of Table 3, we report the estimation results for the two latent 315 variables, quality perception of wood and quality perception of vinyl.[5] These results allows 316 us to know which factors (proxies of information) positively or negatively influence the quality 317 perception for both materials. 318 First, recent information received by individuals on windows and conveyed by way of adver- 319 tising or by store advisors for instance, has a negative impact on their perception of wood.[6] 320 Second, the degree of information respondents feel to possess both about windows and materials 321 has a significant impact on the perceived quality of window materials. On the one hand, the 322 more that individuals feel to be informed about windows, the greater the quality perception 15 323 of wood. On the other hand, the coefficient associated with the information on materials is 324 significantly positive for the perceived quality of vinyl. 325 Third, another way that consumers acquire information is through experience. In the survey, 326 we collected data on the type of windows (i.e., type of material) in their lodging as well as their 327 perception of brightness and performance of insulation in their house. We created variables by 328 crossing both questions in order to simulate experience and perception on materials. Estimation 329 results show a significant impact of these variables on perceived quality. So a combination of the 330 material of the windows in their home with the observed level of insulation and brightness in 331 their home, influences respondents’ opinions on the quality perception of materials. For instance, 332 good or very good thermal and acoustic insulation associated with wooden windows at home 333 improves the perceived quality of wood and decreased the perception of vinyl. In the same 334 way, poor brightness associated with wooden windows increase the perception of vinyl, whereas 335 this has no impact on the perception of wood. Also, Do-It-Yourselfers (DIY) who might have 336 a higher probability to manipulate materials than non-DIY, have a better opinion of wooden 337 windows, whereas this has no effect on the perception of vinyl. 338 Finally, we have checked the accuracy of the predicted latent perception variables before 339 injecting them in the choice model. Indeed, as indicated in the description of the estimation 340 method, the two-step procedure may result in inconsistency of parameters due to the introduc- 341 tion of measurement errors by using fitted latent variables as regressors. However, the estimated 342 variances of the latent variable random errors are small (0.42 and 0.53, respectively, for perceived 343 wood quality and perceived vinyl quality). Thus, we may expect that an individual’s true value 344 of the latent variable is not too far off from its expected value. 16 345 Estimation results of measurement equations The measurement model allows us to kwow 346 which indicator variables are the best predictors for the (latent) quality perception and con- 347 tribute to the construction of the latent preferences. Hence, results concerning the measurement 348 equations indicate the level of reliability and validity of the indicators of the quality perception 349 (in the lower part of Table 3). 350 The estimated factor loadings in the measurement equations are all positive and significantly 351 different from zero at the 1% level of significance, excepted for the price indicators. The results 352 confirm that the question of the global quality of windows is the best indicator of perceived 353 quality among all indicators, with R2 equal to 0.61 and 0.71, respectively, for perceived wood 354 and vinyl quality. Moreover, thermal insulation seems to be the second best indicator (0.56 355 and 0.73, respectively, for wood and vinyl), followed by acoustic insulation, maintenance and 356 product life. Fire resistance, safety and environmental considerations are weak indicators for 357 the perception of window quality. Finally, the dependence between quality perception and price 358 indicators is low: Correlation coefficients between the price indicator and the latent variable 359 (quality perception) turned out to be very small, 0.0017 and 0.0193, respectively, for wood and 360 vinyl. This confirms that consumers did not integrate price into their judgment of materials. 361 4.2.2 362 In the discrete choice model, we estimated the probability of choosing wood (y = 1) rather than 363 vinyl (y = 0) as material for windows. We must remember that respondents were requested 364 to make a product choice considering that products are sold at identical prices. Several tests 365 already showed that respondents had taken into account this recommendation. To eliminate 366 any ambiguity, we included the price indicators for wooden and vinyl windows into the choice The choice model 17 367 model. None of the variables are significantly different from zero. So we may conclude that 368 respondents have correctly answered the questionnaire and focuse on other explanatory variables 369 to analyze consumer preferences. Our model includes, along with “usual” explanatory variables, 370 the predicted latent variables (i.e., predicted quality perceptions of wood and vinyl) coming 371 from the latent variable model, and taste (or attitudes) on the basis of attribute weight. Table 5 372 presents the results of the choice model estimation. 373 Before analyzing parameter estimates in Table 5, we made several specification tests on our 374 model. We had to make sure that the integrated model described in Figure 1 is an appropriate 375 specification for explaining the role of information in the choice decision. In particular, a latent 376 variable model was combined with the choice model in order to take non-observed perception 377 variables into account that could influence consumer choice. Moreover, our model supposes that 378 the preferences and tastes are different between consumers, and that the weights consumers 379 put on attributes (assumed to represent the tastes of consumers) are observed factors that affect 380 their utility. We report the results of likelihood ratio (LR) tests on these assumptions in Table 4. 381 382 [Table 4 here] 383 384 We first tested a model without attribute weights. There are nine restrictions such that 385 coefficients associated with the weights for the nine defined attributes of a window (including 386 price) are equal to zero. This model is not accepted at the 1% level, revealing the importance of 387 tastes in the choice decision. Second, the hypothesis that the two parameters of the predicted 388 latent variables are jointly equal to zero is also rejected at the 1% level. This result confirms 389 that the integration of the latent variable model is necessary and that the quality perception 18 390 variables provide a meaningful explanation of the choice decision of consumers. We also tested 391 for the null hypothesis that both coefficients associated with weights and coefficients associated 392 with latent variables are equal to zero. The test statistic is also greater than the critical value 393 implying the rejection of this hypothesis. Finally, we carry out the standard LR test for the 394 global goodness-of-fit testing the null hypothesis that all coefficients excepted the contant term 395 are zero. This hypothesis is also highly rejected. The integrated model appears to be the most 396 accurate specification.[7] 397 398 [Table 5 here] 399 400 Several conclusions can be drawn from the estimates in Table 5. First, as seen by the results 401 of previous tests, quality perception is important in consumers’ purchase decision. Indeed, 402 estimated parameters associated with each of two latent variables, quality perception of wood 403 and quality perception of vinyl, are highly significantly different from zero (at the 1% level). 404 As expected, a higher quality perception of wood leads to a greater probability of choosing this 405 material for windows. In the same way, a lower quality perception of vinyl also implies a choice 406 of wood rather than vinyl. 407 Second, tastes have a significant effect on the material choice for three of the nine char- 408 acteristics of a window: thermal insulation, aesthetics and maintenance. For these indicators, 409 quality beliefs differ considerably between wooden windows and vinyl windows (see Table 1). 410 Thermal insulation has a negative effect on the choice for wooden windows. Respondents per- 411 ceived wood to be less performing for thermal insulation than vinyl (see Table 1). Furthermore, 412 we can see in the lower part of Table 3 that the thermal insulation property highly influences 19 413 the quality perception of either wooden or vinyl windows. Moreover, if aesthetics is important 414 or very important factor in the window choice, wooden windows will be preferred over vinyl 415 ones. Indeed, people generally believe that wooden windows are more attractive than vinyl 416 windows (see Table 1). Vinyl windows are generally considered to be easier to maintain than 417 wooden windows. As a result, when people attach importance to maintenance, they will choose 418 vinyl windows rather than wooden windows. It should be observed that both the parameters of 419 aesthetics and maintenance indicators are significantly different from zero at the 1% level, while 420 the one of thermal insulation is significantly different at the 5% level. Individuals do not attach 421 same importance to window characteristics. Tastes for window characteristics however could be 422 altered by educational programs. For instance, civic education on environmental responsibilities 423 could raise tastes for environmental considerations and could modify consumer purchase choice 424 in favor of wood. 425 Third, other variables such as lodging characteristics or socio-economic factors also influences 426 the choice of window material. For example, consumers living in standard or modern houses 427 will opt less easily for wooden windows than consumers of traditional (typical) livings. Vinyl 428 is more frequently chosen by owners rather than tenants. Older people seem to have a higher 429 probability to purchase wooden windows than younger people. An explication of this result 430 might be the fact that they have more spare-time to maintain. The region a person lives in is 431 also an explaining factor but not the socio-professional group (SPG). However, a high income 432 level for the consumer explains the choice of wood rather than vinyl. A family with children 433 will have a slight preference for wood, whereas this preference is definitely evident for singles. 434 Surprisingly, ecologically-minded consumers tend to prefer vinyl windows rather than wooden 435 windows, maybe because they think that harvesting and thus wood as a material is harmful for 20 436 forests. 437 Our results show that quality beliefs that consumers possess about windows and materials 438 highly influence their consumption choice. In the case of windows, quality perception is deter- 439 mined by the consumer’s level of knowledge, based on either (external) information or experience. 440 The choice model shows that the consumption decision is highly dependent on consumer quality 441 perception. This means that information campaigns might be an efficient tool for increasing the 442 market share of wood: Either by informing people on real performances of wood (for example, 443 wood possesses the same thermal and acoustic performance as vinyl), or by trying to change 444 tastes, i.e. purchase criteria (for example, by educating the citizen on the importance of the 445 sustainability of materials used in house construction). 446 5 447 We set up an econometric model where the quality level of product attributes is an endoge- 448 nous variable and depends on the information level of consumers, in the case of window choice. 449 We showed that the introduction of quality perceptions and tastes for different attributes sig- 450 nificantly improves the results of a “classical” discrete choice model. This result is not very 451 surprising since several attributes of windows are not observable before purchase. The situation 452 of imperfect information in purchase decisions means that consumers do not assess the objective 453 quality level of attributes in the same way. Therefore, depending on the information they possess 454 on attributes, they form different quality perceptions. Conclusion and perspectives 455 The quality perception of attributes is a determining factor in the purchase decision, espe- 456 cially for the attributes for which consumers have high preferences. This means that if produc- 457 ers can favorably influence the consumer’s perception, demand might increase. For example, 21 458 a better perception of thermal insulation (which is not observable before purchase) positively 459 influences global quality perception and could thus highly influence purchase decisions. Thus, 460 if wood producers could persuade people that wooden windows insulate as effectively as vinyl 461 ones –or even better– (by doing better marketing of their products), consumers might switch 462 their consumption towards wooden windows. With the model we aimed to show that consumer 463 preferences are heterogeneous and based on imperfect information. Indeed, consumers do not 464 necessarily possess correct information on properties of products. The perception consumers 465 have on these properties is a very important factor in their purchase decision. Consequently, we 466 might think that information campaigns can easily modify consumer purchase choices. A logic 467 extension should be to test whether information provision positively (or negatively) influences 468 consumer preferences. 469 In our application to windows, we use stated choice data because data on observed choices 470 were much more difficult to collect on the window market. It could be useful to apply this 471 approach to observed choices and stated preferences (taste indicators and quality perception 472 of products). Studying consumer beliefs about product quality could also be possible with 473 experimental data. More sophisticated analyses of the impact of different kinds of information 474 available (e.g., general information before going into the store, information available in the store 475 on the product) could also enrich the analysis and provide interesting insights for policy-making. 22 476 References 477 Ben-Akiva, M., J. Walker, A.T. Bernardino, D.A. Gopinath, T. Morikawa, and A. 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Browne. 2006. “Bootstrap Fit Testing, Confidence Intervals, and Standard 527 Error Estimation in the Factor Analysis of Polychoric Correlation Matrices.” Behaviormetrika 528 33(1):61–74. 25 529 A Appendix 530 A.1 531 [Table A.6 here] 532 A.2 533 The latent variable model is a structural equation model composed of two structural equations 534 (A.1) and (A.2), corresponding to the two materials and two sets of measurement equations 535 (A.3) and (A.4), expressing relationships among latent variables Z ∗ and manifest variables or 536 indicators I. The complete system can be written as follows: Descriptive Statistics Estimation of the latent variable model 537 Z1∗ = β1 V 1 + ǫZ1 (A.1) 538 Z2∗ = β2 V 1 + ǫZ2 (A.2) 539 I1 = γ1 Z1∗ + ǫI1 (A.3) I2 = γ2 Z2∗ + ǫI2 , (A.4) 540 541 542 where V 1 is a (8 × 1) vector of explanatory variables, β1 and β2 are the associated (1 × 8) vectors 543 of parameters to be estimated, and ǫZ1 and ǫZ2 are i.i.d (0, ΣZ1 ) and (0, ΣZ2 ), respectively. I1 544 and I2 are (10 × 1) vectors of indicators (see Table 1 for definitions), γ1 and γ2 are the (10 × 1) 545 vectors of unknown parameters to be estimated,[8] and ǫI1 and ǫI2 are the measurement errors 546 respectively i.i.d (0, ΣI1 ) and (0, ΣI2 ). The covariance of the error terms in the structural latent 547 equations and in the measurement equations are equal to zero. 548 Structural equation modeling is a multivariate technique using covariance structure analysis. 549 We call θ the parameter vector to be estimated, which includes β1 , β2 , γ1 , γ2 and the variances 26 550 of matrix ΣZ1 , ΣZ2 , ΣI1 and ΣI2 . The parameter vector θ is estimated iteratively by an algo- 551 rithm that minimizes the difference between the sample covariance matrix S and the estimated 552 b θ̂). covariance matrix of estimated parameters Σ( 553 Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the most common method used to estimate struc- 554 tural parameters of this model. Multivariate normal distribution and continuous variables are 555 some of the key assumptions of MLE. However, the manifest variables are often not continu- 556 ous (dichotomous or polytomous variables). This is the case in our model. In particular, the 557 measured indicators and some observed variables are based on a five-point Likert scale (ordinal 558 variables). In this case, the assumption of multivariate normality of data does not hold. The 559 parameter estimates of the latent variable model are still convergent, but the estimated standard 560 errors are underestimated and the fit measures based on χ2 values are not good. 561 In practice, when the number of Likert categories is 4 or higher and skew and kurtosis 562 are within normal limits, use of MLE may be justified. However, as reported by Zhang and 563 Browne (2006), another approach can be to estimate tetrachoric and polychoric correlations,[9] 564 respectively, from the dichotomous and ordinal variables, and to use generalized least squares 565 (GLS) where the weight matrix is the inverse of the matrix of tetrachoric/polychoric correlations 566 (instead of Pearson correlations, Muthén, 1984). When the model is correctly specified, GLS 567 gives asymptotically valid test statistics and standard error estimates (Browne, 1984). The 568 discrepancy function to minimize is written as F = F (S, Σ(θ)). For GLS, this function is: 569 570 FGLS = 1 tr(W −1 (S − Σ)2 ), 2 where W is the weight matrix and tr indicates the trace of a matrix. 27 571 Notes 572 573 [1] In the empirical application, different tests were carried out to make sure that the as- 574 sumption was verified, i.e. that consumers did not integrate price into their judgements. In the 575 questionnaire, respondents were asked to give a price appreciation, for wooden as well as plastic 576 window frames. First, we showed that the price estimation was a bad indicator for product 577 quality. Second, respondents did not judge differently the price levels of wooden and plastic 578 frames. Finally, price indicators were not significant explanatory variables in the global choice 579 model. 580 581 [2] In structural equation modeling, non-observed variables are called latent variables and observed variables are called manifest variables. 582 [3] ED Institut, marketing studies institute, www.edinstitut.com. 583 [4] We used the CALIS procedure (Covariance Analysis of Linear Structural Equations) from 584 the SAS system for Windows (version 9.1) to estimate parameters and test the appropriateness 585 of the linear structural equation model using covariance structure analysis. Since we had a set of 586 linear structural equations to describe our model, we used the LINEQS statement. In particular, 587 it is possible to specify variances and covariances in the model, to choose between different 588 estimation methods and to enter correlation matrices instead of raw data. We constructed 589 tetrachoric/polychoric correlation matrices using the FREQ procedure of SAS. 590 591 592 593 [5] In order to have the best predictions of the latent variables (i.e., minimizing the variance of their random error), we only retained statistically significant factors. [6] Respondents were asked if they had received recently information (either through ads or in stores) on windows. 28 594 [7] Significant gains with respect to simpler models can also be measured in terms of cor- 595 rectly predicted observations and pseudo R2 . For the integrated model, 67% of observations 596 are correctly predicted by the model, and R2 is equal to 0.18. Without latent variables, 63% of 597 observations are correctly predicted by the model, and R2 falls to 0.13. If weights and latent 598 variables are not included in the model, the percentage of correctly predicted observations is 599 60%, and the pseudo R2 is 0.08. 600 601 [8] For each material and thus for each vector of indicators I1 and I2 , the parameter associated with the indicator called “global quality” is set to 1. 602 [9] Tetrachoric and polychoric correlations extrapolate what the categorical variable distri- 603 butions would be if continuous, adding tails to the distribution. As such, it is an estimate based 604 on the assumption of an underlying continuous bivariate normal distribution. 29 Figure 1: Integrated choice and latent variable model Information V 1 Individual characteristics V 2 and V 3 Taste, weight of attributes W beliefs, quality perception Z∗ Utility U ∗ Quality indicators I Stated preferences y 30 Table 1: Quality perception of product attributes for wood and vinyl (indicators I) Appreciation (Lickert scale) Very low (=1) Low (=2) Indifferent (=3) High (=4) Very high (=5) Mean Std. Question: What do you think about this attribute for the wooden (vinyl) window? Wood I11 I12 I13 I14 I15 I16 I17 I18 I19 I1p Global quality Thermal insulation Acoustic insulation Maintenance Product life Aesthetics Environment Fire resistance Safety Price 4.04% 3.72% 4.04% 17.7% 3.62% 1.06% 5.74% 35.5% 15.1% 5.43% 15.5% 17.8% 18.7% 53.8% 25.4% 3.09% 17.0% 39.7% 36.1% 16.3% 2.55% 9.57% 14.0% 2.45% 8.62% 1.28% 14.9% 7.66% 12.3% 42.0% 50.2% 39.3% 38.1% 18.8% 35.9% 21.2% 32.6% 13.4% 26.9% 28.5% 27.7% 29.7% 25.1% 7.23% 26.4% 73.4% 29.8% 3.72% 9.57% 7.77% 3.82 3.73 3.61 2.44 3.56 4.63 3.64 2.10 2.80 3.17 1.12 1.17 1.17 1.19 1.23 0.76 1.23 1.14 1.26 0.97 2.66% 1.70% 1.49% 1.06% 1.17% 5.85% 7.02% 21.2% 11.4% 3.30% 7.02% 5.21% 5.00% 2.87% 6.60% 18.4% 27.9% 35.6% 25.0% 16.4% 7.77% 12.1% 18.0% 6.17% 18.2% 5.11% 24.0% 16.9% 17.2% 41.3% 40.4% 38.1% 38.3% 28.9% 34.6% 44.9% 29.9% 21.7% 35.4% 30.5% 42.1% 42.9% 37.2% 61.0% 39.5% 25.7% 11.2% 4.57% 11.0% 8.52% 4.12 4.15 4.05 4.46 4.05 3.66 3.10 2.53 3.10 3.25 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.82 0.97 1.20 1.14 1.18 1.22 0.94 Vinyl I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I26 I27 I28 I29 I2p Global quality Thermal insulation Acoustic insulation Maintenance Product life Aesthetics Environment Fire resistance Safety Price Notes: N = 940. 31 Table 2: Taste for product attributes (weight W ) (Lickert scale) Not important (=1) Few important (=2) Indifferent (=3) Rather important (=4) Very important (=5) Mean Std. 4.82 4.62 4.62 4.49 4.14 4.53 4.11 4.45 4.50 0.56 0.86 0.75 0.86 1.24 0.87 1.15 1.00 0.86 Question: When you choose a window, how important is this attribute? Thermal insulation Acoustic insulation Product life Aesthetics Fire resistance Maintenance Environment Safety Price 0.64% 1.28% 0.53% 0.32% 5.00% 1.17% 3.72% 2.77% 1.17% 1.38% 5.43% 3.94% 7.23% 12.8% 5.96% 11.4% 6.38% 4.57% 0.32% 0.85% 1.49% 0.43% 2.45% 0.64% 4.04% 1.91% 3.40% Notes: N = 940. 32 11.0% 15.1% 21.0% 27.1% 23.3% 23.0% 31.5% 20.6% 24.7% 86.7% 77.3% 73.1% 64.9% 56.5% 69.3% 49.4% 68.3% 66.2% Table 3: Estimation results of the latent variable model Z1∗ (Wood) Latent variable equations (two equations, one per column) Coef. t-stat Z2∗ (Vinyl) Coef. t-stat 0.0798 4.05 −0.7467 −0.7488 0.3621 0.7054 −10.79 −9.81 3.05 4.61 (Explanatory) Variables V 1 Received information (recently) Informed about windows (feeling) Informed about materials (feeling) Do-it-yourselfers Very good thermal insulation × Home wooden windows Good acoustic insulation × Home wooden windows Poor Brightness × Home wooden windows Purchase of windows × Home wooden windows −0.1190 0.0927 −1.83 4.37 0.0569 0.9322 0.4728 3.51 13.50 6.76 0.9154 5.92 2 R 0.38 Measurement equations (two times ten equations, one per row) Coef. t-stat 1.0000 0.9293 0.8434 0.7378 0.9699 0.5278 0.5291 0.4198 0.5409 0.0390 – 19.75 18.92 15.82 20.15 18.31 10.50 9.30 12.84 1.02 0.20 Coef. t-stat R2 (Explained) Indicators I I11 I12 I13 I14 I15 I16 I17 I18 I19 I1p Global quality Thermal insulation Acoustic insulation Maintenance Product life Aesthetics Environment Fire Safety Price I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I26 I27 I28 I29 I2p Global quality Thermal insulation Acoustic insulation Maintenance Product life Aesthetics Environment Fire Safety Price Fit function=2.2170 Goodness-of-fit statistics 0.60 0.56 0.47 0.32 0.55 0.43 0.15 0.18 0.35 0.00 1.0000 0.9187 0.8401 0.6566 0.6532 0.8150 0.4788 0.3174 0.4868 0.1427 χ2 (319) 2081.75 (¡0.0001) GFI 0.8416 Notes: N = 940. GFI=Goodness of fit index, RMSEA=Root mean square error approximation. 33 – 27.29 22.87 21.26 17.75 18.62 10.69 7.12 12.39 3.79 RMSEA 0.0767 0.71 0.72 0.61 0.48 0.34 0.37 0.17 0.09 0.27 0.02 Table 4: Specification tests Null hypothesis 34 ln Lr LR statistics Model without weights of attributes W H0 : coef. related to W null -554.71 52.20 χ20.01 (9) = 21.67 Reject H0 Model without quality perception Z ∗ H0 : coef. related to Ẑ1∗ and Ẑ2∗ null -562.04 66.85 χ20.01 (2) = 9.21 Reject H0 Model without Z ∗ and W H0 : coef. related to W , Ẑ1∗ and Ẑ2∗ null -592.21 127.20 χ20.01 (11) = 24.72 Reject H0 Model with only the constant term H0 : all coef. excepted the constant term null -643.08 169.97 χ20.01 (34) = 56.06 Reject H0 Notes: N = 940. For the unrestricted (complete) model, ln Lu = −528.61. Critical value Decision Table 5: Estimation results of the choice model Estimated Coef. Variable Bootstrap Std. err. Constant I1p I2p Age Not ecologically sensitivea Not very ecologically sensitivea Rather ecologically sensitivea High income levela Gives little importance to homea Gives big importance to homea SPG1 SPG3 SPG4 Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Single Family Woman Owner Modern Classic Rooms 1.7702∗∗∗ −0.0651 −0.0413 0.1700∗∗∗ −0.3326 −0.2458 −0.2832∗∗∗ 0.7434∗∗∗ −1.0187∗ −0.2676∗∗∗ 0.2668 0.0859 −0.1166 −0.2225 −0.3333∗∗ −0.2294∗ −0.1837 0.3844∗∗ 0.1728 0.0741 −0.4208∗∗∗ −0.3059∗∗ −0.2935∗∗ 0.0347∗ 0.6738 0.0494 0.0535 0.0478 0.2718 0.1760 0.1091 0.2599 0.6119 0.1029 0.2021 0.1435 0.1560 0.1613 0.1417 0.1394 0.1766 0.1450 0.1098 0.0970 0.1182 0.1369 0.1170 0.0206 Quality perception of wood Quality perception of vinyl 0.5268∗∗∗ −0.7616∗∗∗ 0.1728 0.1271 Acoustic insulation Thermal insulation Product life Aesthetics Fire resistance Maintenance Environment Safety Price 0.0136 −0.2091∗∗ −0.0300 0.1985∗∗∗ −0.0208 −0.3165∗∗∗ 0.0294 −0.0243 −0.0249 0.0639 0.1020 0.0688 0.0652 0.0466 0.0683 0.0506 0.0574 0.0628 Log-likelihood ln l McFadden’s Pseudo R2 Correctly predicted -528.61 0.1780 67% Notes: Number of observations N = 940. Number of bootstrap replications = 941. ***: significant at 1%, **: at 5%, *: at 10%. a Variables Ecological sensitivity, Finances and Home (defined in Table A.6) initially built on a 1-5 scale have been tranformed into dummies. 35 Table A.6: Descriptive statistics Variable Stated Choice y Variables V Description Mean Std. Min Max =1 if wood is chosen 0.4330 0.4958 0.00 1.00 Assessment of insulation Assessment of insulation Assessment of brightness =1 if windows in wood =1 if windows in vinyl =1 if recent change =1 if recent information Assessment of information Assessment of information Do-it-yourself rate =1 if recent purchase 3.8553 3.8298 4.4319 0.5372 0.3128 0.0649 0.2543 3.0787 2.8819 3.3202 0.0840 1.3393 1.3514 0.9337 0.4989 0.4639 0.2465 0.4357 1.3152 1.3288 1.5007 0.2776 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 Importance to home =1 if apartment Number of rooms =1 if owner (0 if tenant) =1 if modern building =1 if classic building =1 if typical building 4.5489 0.3160 5.2883 0.6660 0.2287 0.5298 0.2298 0.7170 0.4651 3.1098 0.4719 0.4202 0.4994 0.4209 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 1.00 73.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Class of ages =1 if woman =1 if single =1 if single-parent family =1 if couple =1 if couple with kids Ecologically-sensitive Assessment of own finances Farmer, craftsman, merchant Executive, liberal profession Intermediate profession Employee Manual laborer, service personnel Unemployed, retired City size Paris region Western region North-Eastern region South-Western region South-Eastern region 3.2755 0.5840 0.1564 0.0372 0.2915 0.4957 3.9734 3.0021 0.0596 0.1074 0.1447 0.1106 0.1787 0.3989 2.8777 0.1660 0.2245 0.2426 0.1213 0.2457 1.2068 0.4931 0.3634 0.1894 0.4547 0.5002 1.0495 1.1611 0.2368 0.3098 0.3520 0.3139 0.3833 0.4899 1.4221 0.3722 0.4175 0.4289 0.3266 0.4308 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 Home thermal insulation Home acoustic insulation Home brightness Home wooden windows Home vinyl windows Change of windows Received information Informed about windows Informed about materials Do-it-yourselfer Purchase of windows Variables V 2 Home Apartment Rooms Owner Modern Classic Typical Variables V 3 Age Woman Single Single parent Couple Family Ecological sensitivity Finances SPG1 SPG2 SPG3 SPG4 SPG5 SPG6 City size Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Notes: Number of observations N = 940. 36
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