30/7/2015
India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought, U.N. Says ­ The New York Times
http://nyti.ms/1LRtAzR
ASIA PACIFIC
India Will Be Most Populous Country
Sooner Than Thought, U.N. Says
By RICK GLADSTONE
JULY 29, 2015
Demographers have known for some time that the number of people in India
would surpass the number in China, the two most populous countries in the
world. But they did not anticipate that the change would happen so quickly.
The United Nations reported on Wednesday that India’s population will
probably surpass China’s by 2022, not 2028, as the organization had forecast
just two years ago.
In its 2015 revision report, the population division of the United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs said China’s population was now
1.38 billion, compared with 1.31 billion in India. But in seven years, the
populations of both are expected to reach 1.4 billion.
Thereafter, the report said, India’s population will grow for decades, to 1.5
billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050, while China’s is expected to remain
fairly constant until the 2030s, when it is expected to slightly decrease.
Over all, the report said, the world’s current population of 7.3 billion is
expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, slightly more than the 9.6 billion
forecast two years ago. The number could reach 11.2 billion by the end of the
century.
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30/7/2015
India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought, U.N. Says ­ The New York Times
Much of the overall increase between now and 2050 is expected in high­
fertility countries, mainly in Africa, or in countries with large populations, the
report said.
Half the growth is expected to be concentrated in just nine countries:
India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia,
Tanzania, the United States, Indonesia and Uganda.
By contrast, the populations of 48 countries are expected to decline in that
period, mainly in Europe, because of a slowdown in fertility rates that started
decades ago. The report said several countries faced a population decline of
more than 15 percent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and
Ukraine.
Among the 10 largest countries by population, one is in Africa (Nigeria),
five are in Asia (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan), two are in
Latin America (Brazil and Mexico) one is in North America (the United States),
and one is in Europe (Russia). Among these, Nigeria’s population, currently
ranked seventh largest, is growing the fastest, and it is expected to surpass the
population of the United States by 2050, which would make it the world’s third
most populous country.
The population revision report also included some notable findings on
aging. The number of people 80 or older is projected to more than triple by
2050 and increase more than sevenfold by 2100, the report said. In 2015, 28
percent of all people 80 and older lived in Europe, but that share is expected to
decline to 16 percent in 2050 and to 9 percent by 2100, as the populations of
other areas increase in size and grow older.
The revision report confirmed that substantial improvements in life
expectancy have been made in recent years.
Globally, life expectancy has risen to 68 years for men and 73 years for
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India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought, U.N. Says ­ The New York Times
women in 2010­15, from 65 years for men and 69 years for women in 2000­5.
The highest levels of life expectancy in 2010­15 are in China, followed by
Japan, Italy, Switzerland, Singapore, Iceland, Spain, Australia and Israel, in
that order.
Globally, the report said, life expectancy is projected to rise to 77 years in
2045­50 and 83 years in 2095­2100, from 70 years in 2010­15.
The population estimates and projections from the United Nations are an
important benchmark for global trends, as well as for helping provide
demographic data to calculate many other important indicators, including
health data, around the world.
A version of this article appears in print on July 30, 2015, on page A4 of the New York edition with
the headline: India’s Population Is Seen Surpassing China’s Faster .
© 2015 The New York Times Company
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