Ecosystems DOI: 10.1007/s10021-011-9436-8 Ó 2011 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada Carbon, Water, and Energy Exchanges of a Hybrid Poplar Plantation During the First Five Years Following Planting Tiebo Cai,1 David T. Price,1* Alberto L. Orchansky,2 and Barb R. Thomas3,4 1 Natural Resources Canada, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320-122 Street NW, Edmonton, Alberta T6H 3S5, Canada; 2Micrometeorology Consultant, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; 3Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc, Boyle, Alberta T0A 0M0, Canada; 4Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H1, Canada ABSTRACT Eddy covariance was used to measure above-canopy exchanges of CO2 and water vapor at an operational plantation of hybrid poplar (variety ‘‘Walker’’) established on marginal agricultural land in east central Alberta, Canada. Winter ecosystem respiration (Re) rates were inferred from seasonal changes in the normalized respiration rate at 10°C (R10) for the growing season and observations of soil CO2 concentration measured with solid-state probes. Over five consecutive growing seasons following planting, gross ecosystem production (GEP) increased each year, ranging from 21 g C m-2 y-1 in year 1 to 469 g C m-2 y-1 in Received 24 June 2010; accepted 22 March 2011 Author Contributions: TC performed the data analysis presented in this article and drafted the methodology and results. DTP conceived the study, located the site and contributed significantly to writing the article. ALO turned the concept into reality, set up and maintained the eddy covariance system and other instrumentation, and organized data sets. BRT assisted greatly with site selection, provided expertise on hybrid poplar plantation establishment, coordinated management operations at the study site and contributed to the writing. *Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected] year 5. During this period, the annual carbon balance shifted from a net source of greater than 330 g C m-2 in year 1 to approximately C-neutral in year 5. Total carbon (C) release over 5 years likely exceeded 630 g C m-2. Intra- and interannual variations in temperature and soil water availability greatly affected annual C balance each year. GEP and Re were particularly sensitive to temperature during spring and to soil water availability in summer: year 5 was notable because a cold spring and accumulating drought caused growth and carbon uptake to fall well below their potential. Annual evapotranspiration (ET) increased slightly with leaf area, from 281 mm in year 1 to 323 mm in year 4, but in year 5 it declined, while exceeding total precipitation (P). This trend of increasing annual ET/P suggests that annual GEP could become increasingly water-limited in years with below normal precipitation, as the plantation achieves maximum leaf area. Measured canopy albedos did not change appreciably over three winters, suggesting that estimates of increased radiative forcing resulting from afforestation in high latitudes could be exaggerated in regions where fast-growing deciduous plantations are managed on short (20-year) rotations. Key words: plantation; hybrid poplar; net ecosystem exchange; chronosequence; carbon sequestration; drought; land-use change. T. Cai and others INTRODUCTION Afforestation of marginal or abandoned agricultural land has been a common practice in many parts of the world, usually to create or increase local supplies of wood fiber. In Canada, however, afforestation has occurred on a relatively small scale, limited primarily to private land and the protection of farm soils, notably through the efforts of individual farmers creating shelterbelts of trees made available for the past 100 years through the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (now Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Agroforestry Development Centre of the Agri-Environment Services Branch). Planting of extensive areas of previously unforested agricultural land has been carried out in eastern Canada (notably in Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick) since the 1960s, but is a relatively recent initiative in western Canada. An important objective of this new activity is to compensate for shortfalls in timber supply resulting from productive forest being converted to other land uses. In Alberta, perhaps 5,000 km2 of boreal forestland have been lost to oil and gas exploration, and for coal and oil-sands extraction (for example, Schneider 2002; Schneider and Dyer 2006). Forestry companies affected by such losses are keen to supplement their operational area by planting nearby marginal agricultural land if economically feasible. As remaining forests are assigned to protected areas, or lost to other land uses, the importance of afforestation can only increase. In Canada, much effort is currently focused on plantations of hybrid poplars in Ontario and Québec, as well as the three Prairie Provinces, established either on agricultural land, or on recently harvested forest sites, and managed on rotations of about 20 years (for example, Saurette and others 2006; Arevalo and others 2009). There is also the potential to use tree plantations to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, but comprehensive research is required to determine the true climate change mitigation benefits that accrue. Under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3, it is now possible to claim credits for reductions in anthropogenic GHG emissions resulting from afforestation—defined as the establishment of forest, through human activities such as planting, on land that has not previously supported trees for at least 50 years (Natural Resources Canada 2004). This is seen by Canadian forestry companies as an additional economic incentive for afforestation programs and has led to interest in determining the complete carbon (C) balances of hybrid poplar plantations. It should be clear that large areas of land would need to be afforested to create a significant C offset to Canada’s GHG emissions. Then it must be determined how new tree cover affects the accumulation of carbon in soils and litter, because a commercial forestry operation will presumably plan periodic harvesting in which much of the aboveground woody biomass is removed from the site. (Afforestation for conservation purposes may also occur, but the area of such planting is likely to be small and limited to relatively slow-growing indigenous species.) Assuming the logistical problems can be solved (that is, if a major afforestation program can be maintained for several decades), then there are some important concerns about the potential environmental impacts of such a program. Foremost among these, in regions where water supplies are limited (such as the prairie ecosystems of western Canada, for example, Hogg 1994; Hogg and others 2005), it is possible that extensive plantations will make less water available to neighboring crops or grazing lands and/or reduce stream flows. Second, global scale modeling studies have suggested that a shift from grassland to forest cover in the northern mid-latitudes would result in a significant reduction in surface albedo, particularly in winter, that would contribute to a net surface warming of comparable magnitude to the cooling resulting from the net GHG removal (Bonan and others 1992; Betts 2000; see also Bala and others 2007; Montenegro and others 2009). We would expect changes in albedo resulting from establishment of deciduous poplar plantations to be less dramatic than those suggested by studies focused on evergreen conifers, but their effects on surface energy balance and climate should still be quantified. An ongoing study designed to address some of these questions is in progress at an operational 300 ha plantation of hybrid poplars established on agricultural land in east-central Alberta. Carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the plantation have been monitored since early 2005 using the eddy covariance technique, together with standard meteorological and soil measurements. The present study provides a unique opportunity to assess effects of interannual variations in climate on trends in the carbon and water balances during the five growing seasons from 2005 to 2009. METHODS The study site is located at 54.346°N, 111.522°W, in the aspen parkland/southern boreal forest region of Canada, near Ashmont, Alberta. Elevation is 622 m Carbon, Water, and Energy Exchanges of a Hybrid Poplar Plantation in gently rolling terrain. Soils are predominantly moderately well drained Luvisols with a mesic moisture regime and silty-clay to silty-clay-loam texture in the upper 30 cm. Approximately 300 ha of this land was used for crops (barley, alfalfa, hay) until 2004, after which it was cultivated in September 2004 and treated with pre-emergent herbicide in May 2005. Just prior to planting in early June 2005, a solar-powered eddy covariance (EC) system and climate monitoring station were installed at the approximate center of a 90 ha block (located within the 300 ha area). The entire area was planted on an accurate 3 m grid with 1 m tall rooted cuttings of Populus deltoides 9 P. petrowskyana (var. ‘‘Walker’’). The selected tower site is close to ideal for EC measurements, with uninterrupted uniform fetch of 200–300 m in all directions on very flat ground and genetically identical roughness elements (trees) growing on a regular grid. Furthermore, the 90 ha block is surrounded by 200 ha of fields planted with var. Walker and two other hybrid poplar clones of the same age. Net radiation was measured continuously with half-hourly averaging using a net radiometer (NR Lite2, Kipp & Zonen) mounted at 1.78 m height, and wind speed and direction were monitored using a R.M. Young sensor mounted at 3.51 m. Air temperature (Ta) was measured using an air temperature and relative humidity probe (Model HMP45C, Vaisala Inc., Finland) mounted in a ventilated radiation shield at a height of 1.5 m. Rainfall was measured using a tipping bucket rain gauge (RM Young 52203-L, Campbell Scientific, Logan, UT) at 2.87 m height. The heights of these meteorological instruments were not changed over the 5 years of the experiment. Snowfall was not measured, so daily total snowfall data were averaged from 14 nearby (within 90 km) climate stations operated by Environment Canada (notably Lac La Biche) as a substitute for the snowfall at the site. The climate normals (1971–2000) for growing degree day sum (GDD) and precipitation (P) were also obtained from the same climate stations. Soil heat flux (G0) was measured using REBS soil heat flux plates buried at 3 cm below the soil surface at three locations. Averages of the measurements from the three soil heat flux plates were taken as the representative G0 of the site. Soil volumetric water content was measured using time-domain water content reflectometers (CS615, Campbell Scientific) buried at 2, 10, 25, and 50 cm depth. With the exception of the rain gauge, all meteorological sensors were sampled at 5-s intervals and recorded as half-hourly means by a data logger (CR23X, Campbell Scientific). Soil CO2 concentra- tion was measured hourly using solid-state probes (GMM221, Vaisala Inc.) buried adjacent to soil moisture probes at 2, 10, 25, and 50 cm depth in July 2005. In 2009, the soil CO2 sensors at the 10 and 25 cm depths failed, so a second set of Vaisala CO2 sensors was installed about 5 m from the first set, and the latter removed in June 2010. The eddy covariance technique was used to measure net ecosystem fluxes of CO2 (Fc), latent heat (LE), and sensible heat (H). Instrumentation consisted of a three-dimensional sonic anemometer-thermometer (CSAT3, Campbell Scientific) and an open-path infrared gas (CO2/H2O) analyzer (IRGA) (LI-7500, LI-COR, Lincoln, NE) mounted on an instrument tripod. The EC sensors were mounted initially at a height of 3 m in 2005. To ensure that the sensors remained well above the top of the growing tree canopy, the instrument height was increased before the start of the growing season in 2008, to about 4 m, and again to 5.36 m in May 2009, when the instrument tripod was replaced with a 6 m triangular tower. Incoming and reflected photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (Qt) was measured using a pair of quantum sensors (PAR Lite, Kipp & Zonen, The Netherlands) initially mounted at 3 m on the instrument tower, and raised in June 2009 to 4.50 m. Midday canopy albedo was estimated from PAR reflectance, that is, as the ratio of outgoing (reflected) PAR to incoming PAR during the half-hours from 11:00 to 14:00 h, recognizing that average PAR reflectance may differ slightly from the full spectrum shortwave albedo measured with paired thermopile pyranometers. Also in 2009, a second net radiometer (CNR1, Kipp & Zonen) was installed at 5.77 m. Half-hourly net fluxes were calculated as F ¼ qa w 0 s0 , where qa is the mean molar density of dry air and w0 s0 is the covariance of instantaneous vertical wind speed (w) and the scalar, s. The scalars for Fc, LE, and H were CO2 mixing ratio (mol CO2 mol-1 dry air), water vapor mixing ratio (mol H2O mol-1 dry air), and ambient Ta, respectively, all measured at 10 Hz. The rate of change in canopy storage of these scalars was approximated as Fs ¼ hm qa Ds=Dt, where hm is the measurement height, Ds is the difference between half-hourly means of s of the current and previous half-hours, and Dt = 1800 s. Half-hourly net ecosystem exchanges of CO2 (NEE, positive value means upward flux), and of LE and H, were calculated as the summation of their corresponding F and Fs. All measurements were coordinate rotated, and Fc and LE were corrected following Webb and others (1980). Because of recognized problems operating the LI-7500 in cold winter conditions (for example, Burba and others T. Cai and others 2006), the EC system was generally operated only from early May to early November each year, bracketing the period when leaves emerged in spring and most leaves had fallen in late autumn. The IRGA was calibrated using reference gases and a dewpoint generator (LI-610, LI-COR), three times each season: before installation in spring, approximately in mid-July, and after take-down in autumn. The EC system was operational usually from mid-May to mid-November, except for 2005/ 2006 when it was allowed to continue operating throughout the winter. In general it was necessary to estimate monthly ET and CO2 fluxes during the winter months, recognizing that the very cold conditions in this region severely limit both fluxes. Monthly ET during the first and last winter months was estimated from the previous month’s (November) or next month’s (May) data, and assumed to be constant throughout the intervening period. During the growing season, half-hourly ecosystem respiration was estimated using an iterative 5-day moving window technique similar to that of Reichstein and others (2005). Because NEE = Re - GEP, where Re and GEP denote ecosystem respiration and gross ecosystem production (photosynthesis), respectively, and because at night, GEP can be assumed to be zero, nighttime NEE represents Re. In this study, nighttime and daytime periods were defined as PAR less than 50 and PAR greater than or equal to 50 lmol m-2 s-1, respectively. The iterative technique for estimating Re has four steps. First, nighttime half-hourly NEE measurements made in turbulent conditions (friction velocity, u* > 0.1 m s-1) were related to their corresponding air temperature using an (R10 Q10) relationship, that is, Re = R10Q(Ta-10)/10 , where 10 R10 is the normalized respiration rate at 10°C, and Q10 is the relative temperature sensitivity describing the change in Re for a 10°C change in Ta. Values of R10 and Q10 were obtained by curve-fitting all valid measurements obtained in consecutive 5-day periods (‘‘windows’’) when the EC system was operating. Second, the Q10 values from step 1 for a given year were weighted using the inverse of their standard errors (SE). The SE-weighted Q10 values for 2005–2009 were 1.86, 2.12, 1.18, 1.66, and 1.36, respectively. The average of these SE-weighted Q10 values, that is, Q10 = 1.63, was chosen as the representative Q10 for all 5 years. Using Q10 = 1.63, the R10 values for the 5-day windows defined in step 1, were recalculated and assigned to the middle (third) day of each 5-day window. Third, every set of five consecutive R10 values from step 2 was averaged and assigned to the middle day. Lastly, both nighttime and daytime half-hourly values of Re were calculated using the (R10 - Q10) relationship with the smoothed R10 values and Q10 of 1.63. GEP was then calculated as the difference between daytime Re and daytime NEE. For winter periods when the EC system was not operating, the smoothed values of R10 were used to estimate Re from weather data, assuming a minimum R10 of 0.5. Weather data were obtained at the tower site, except for the first 5 months of 2005, when they were estimated from observations at the nearby Lac La Biche climate station, as explained previously. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION During the five growing seasons, the planted trees grew from single-stemmed rooted cuttings measuring approximately 1 m into bushy saplings occupying a diameter of 1–1.5 m. By the end of 2009, average tree height in the vicinity of the tower was approximately 3.0 m, with some individuals approaching 5 m. Climatic Conditions during 2005–2009 The 5-day mean Ta frequently dropped below -20°C in winter but never exceeded 25°C in summer, and generally exceeded 5°C only from May to September (Figure 1A). The 30-year normal annual GDD (5°C base) at this site is approximately 1,400. We calculated the annual GDD sums for this site for each year from 2005 to 2009 using the Environment Canada algorithm: GDD = (Tmax + Tmin)/2 - Tbase, where Tmax and Tmin are daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, respectively, and Tbase is the base temperature (5°C). When (Tmax + Tmin)/2 is less than Tbase, the daily GDD value was set to 0 (McMaster and Wilhelm 1997). Annual GDD for 2006 was greater than normal, whereas those for 2007 and 2008 were very close to normal and 2005 and 2009 were markedly lower than normal (Figure 1B). The 30-year normal (1971–2000) annual P for this stand was estimated as 461 mm. Summer (June–August) rainfall normally accounts for about 50% of annual P, but the seasonal distribution varied greatly among years (Figure 1C). Soil volumetric water content (hv) generally reached a maximum (approximately 0.25 m3 m-3) immediately following snowmelt, which usually occurred around mid-April. The timing of hv reaching minima varied among years depending on the rates of soil water depletion and recharge (Figure 1D). Values of hv measured from late fall to early spring (un-hatched area in Figure 1D) were estimated Carbon, Water, and Energy Exchanges of a Hybrid Poplar Plantation Figure 1. Climate trends at the hybrid poplar plantation observed from June 2005 to November 2009. A Five-day mean air temperature; B cumulative growing degree days; C seasonal precipitation totals; D soil water content at 100 mm depth. Thirty year climate normals (1971–2000) were estimated from nearby climate station records. from the values obtained before soil temperature fell below 0°C. Seasonal Variation of Midday PAR Reflectance The 5-day averaged midday PAR reflectance was generally high from early December to the end of March due to snow cover (with significant decrease due to early snow melting in 2006) (Figure 2). It seems that stand growth during the first 5 years following planting did not affect PAR reflectance during summer, and there was also no obvious trend in winter (though data for early 2009 were lost due to a sensor failure). Recent global model simulations have suggested that large-scale afforestation in mid/high latitudes would decrease surface albedo because forested lands are assumed to absorb a greater amount of solar radiation than grasslands or other regions carrying low profile vegetation, particularly during periods of snowcover (Bonan and others 1992; Betts 2000). Hence, the negative forcing on global warming through C sequestration could be offset by the positive forcing induced by the decrease in surface albedo (Betts 2000; Bala and others 2007; Bonan 2008; Montenegro and others 2009). These conclusions seem inconsistent with Figure 2, possibly because the model simulations assume that afforestation would generally be with coniferous species. Incorrect Figure 2. Seasonal trends in canopy albedo, measured above the hybrid poplar canopy from June 2005 to November 2009. Paired upward- and downward-oriented sensors were mounted initially at 3 m and raised to 4.5 m in June 2009. parameterization of winter surface albedo may also lead to significant errors in numerical weather prediction models (for example, Sellers and others 1997; Betts and Ball 1997). Figure 2 also provides a clear contrast with the much lower winter albedos of a southern boreal aspen stand (referred to as SOA) of 0.21, and of conifer stands (0.11–0.15) measured by Betts and Ball (1997). SOA has two distinct canopy layers: a 22-m trembling aspen T. Cai and others overstory and a 2-m hazelnut understory. Clearly, shadow effects in older stands with more complex structure are important, even in deciduous canopies and it would be premature to draw a firm conclusion. However, afforestation with short rotation deciduous species such as hybrid poplar will likely cause a significantly smaller positive forcing on climate warming, for two reasons. First, the relatively small effects on winter albedo seen in the present study, may continue for several more years, though it is important to recognize that as the trees mature and the crowns expand, winter albedo may gradually decrease perhaps to values of 0.25–0.30 (that is, still higher than those reported for SOA because we may reasonably assume a woody understory will not develop). Second, because the planned rotation length for hybrid poplars in Alberta is approximately 20 years, the fraction of land area with significantly reduced winter albedo (that is, if older stands with larger trees and branches, and possible shrub undergrowth, cause significant shading), will be much smaller than in regions where evergreen conifers are grown on rotations of 50 years or longer. Energy Balance Closure during 2005–2009 The half-hourly eddy covariance measurements of LE, H, and G0 from June to September were converted to ratios of measured Rn. Summation of these three ratios for daytime periods for 2005 to 2009 produced totals of 1.12, 1.02, 1.05, 1.02, and 1.04, respectively (Figure 3), indicating extremely good energy balance closure (EBC), generally within 5% of measured Rn. The relatively poor EBC in 2005 possibly resulted from spatial heterogeneity in G0 which formed a larger proportion of the total energy flux, because there was minimal vegetation cover that year. Nighttime EBC was relatively poor in all years (but the average ratio was still 0.89), with the main uncertainty apparently in the LE term (data not shown). Our EBC closure was significantly better than at most eddy covariance sites, where values of 0.8–0.9 are typically reported in the literature (for example, Wilson and others 2002). This probably demonstrates that with near-ideal site conditions, that is, flat and relatively homogeneous terrain, adequate fetch and genetically identical trees arranged on an accurately spaced grid, the EC technique can produce very reliable results. Further this greatly increases our confidence in the estimates of annual carbon and water balances presented in the following sections. Figure 3. Annual averages of measured energy balance components during growing seasons from June 2005 until November 2009. Component fluxes are half-hourly soil heat (G0), sensible heat (H), and latent heat (LE) fluxes summed and expressed as a ratio of the measured net radiation. A value of 1.0 for the sum would imply perfect energy balance closure. The relatively large imbalance in 2005 was attributed to greater spatial variability in the contribution of G0 to total energy balance that year, when vegetation cover was minimal. Diurnal Variation of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) Half-hourly NEE measurements made in turbulent conditions (u* > 0.1 m s-1) from June to September inclusive, in each year were bin-averaged, and their diurnal variation plotted in Figure 4A. Diurnal NEE in 2005 was invariably positive (C source). From 2006 onwards, however, the growing season average daytime NEE became progressively more negative, suggesting an increasing C sink capacity during the day (Figure 4A). Average NEE values at noon were +2.25, +0.18, -1.27, -3.77, and -4.78 lmol C m-2 s-1 for each year from 2005 to 2009, respectively. Falge and others (2002) have reported maximum half-hourly NEE for boreal/cold temperate (for example, aspen), temperate (for example, beech), and warm temperate (for example, oak-hickory) broadleaf deciduous forests of -12, -19, and -26 lmol m-2 s-1, respectively. Coursolle and others (2006) reported maximum NEE for recently disturbed (3–9 years), young (14–26 years), and intermediate-aged (36–60 years) coniferous stands were -1.55, -4.79, and -12.35 lmol m-2 s-1, respectively. The maximum daytime and nighttime NEE for SOA in August 2003 were approximately -10 and +5 lmol m-2 s-1, respectively (Coursolle Carbon, Water, and Energy Exchanges of a Hybrid Poplar Plantation Figure 4. Ensemble half-hourly values of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) from June to September over five years at the hybrid poplar plantation. All nighttime data when u* < 0.1 m s-1 were rejected. A Twenty-four-hour trends showing progressive increase in daytime C uptake (negative NEE) over the five growing seasons; B same data as A binned by measured quantum flux densities (PAR). and others 2006), although this site experienced severe droughts from 2001–2003 (Krishnan and others 2006). Our maximum half-hourly NEE in 2009 was only about 50% of that reported for SOA, suggesting large future potential growth for this stand. Response of daytime NEE to PAR is shown in Figure 4B, which was obtained by bin-averaging half-hourly PAR and its corresponding NEE values using a bin width of 100 lmol m-2 s-1. When Re and GEP are approximately equal, NEE becomes insensitive to the environmental controls on Re and GEP. The response of NEE to PAR in 2005 was almost exponential, largely reflecting the dominance of Re and its exponential response to increasing soil and air temperature (which are generally positively correlated with PAR). NEE was least sensitive to the increase in PAR in 2006 because C uptake through photosynthesis was in approximate balance with respiratory C loss. From 2007 onwards, the average responses of NEE to PAR increasingly resemble a standard hyperbolic photosynthetic light response curve, suggesting that photosynthesis became the dominant component of NEE. However, when PAR exceeded 1200 lmol m-2 s-1, NEE became generally less negative (that is, decreasing C uptake) with the further increase in PAR, presumably because photosynthesis had already became light-saturated but respiration continued to increase exponentially with temperature (Figure 4B). The maximum net C uptake (most negative NEE values) usually occurred at PAR levels around 900 lmol m-2 s-1 (Figure 4B) or around 9:00 am when photosynthesis was near saturation but temperature was still low and Re was not close to its daily maximum (Figure 4A). EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ON GEP AND ECOSYSTEM RESPIRATION (RE) The effect of temperature and precipitation on GEP and Re were assessed by comparing data from June and August, respectively. In June, GEP totals were approximately 0, 26, 51, 106, and 79 g C m-2 for 2005–2009, respectively (Figure 5A). Hence, in Figure 5. Trends in monthly carbon balance over five years during June and August compared to A growing season heat sum, and B August precipitation. T. Cai and others 2007 and 2008, June GEP approximately doubled from the previous year, but in 2009 it actually decreased by 25% relative to 2008. The abnormally low temperature in the early growing season of 2009 clearly delayed leaf emergence and development, and the GDD sum to 1 July was reduced by about 30% compared to normal, all of which reduced GEP (Figure 5A). The corresponding June Re values for these 5 years were 61, 55, 56, 76, and 70 g C m-2, respectively. In contrast to GEP, the rate of increase in June Re was much slower. In 2009, the abnormally cool spring caused June Re to decrease, compared to 2008, by approximately 8%. The impact of cool temperatures on GEP was three times larger than that on Re, which resulted in NEE in June 2009 being only 30% of that in 2008. If the trend of year-over-year increases in annual GEP and Re had continued from 2008 to 2009, we estimate these terms would have been approximately 220 and 103 g C m-2, respectively, so the stand may have sequestered 117 g C m-2 less than its potential in June 2009 alone. Because GEP and Re usually respond to changes in temperature in the same direction (Van Dijk and Dolman 2004; Cai and others 2010), the net C uptake is determined by which of them is more enhanced or decreased by temperature. These results confirm other observations that in the early growing season, GEP generally is more sensitive to temperature than Re, whereas the reverse occurs in summer and autumn (for example, Piao and others 2008). Consistent with our results, Black and others (2000) reported a significant increase in C sequestration by a boreal deciduous forest in years with early springs, and Cai and others (2010) reported that warmer and drier conditions stimulate Re more than GEP in late growing seasons in a boreal peatland ecosystem. Figure 5A demonstrates the important effects that interannual climate variability can exert on vegetation phenology and hence on terrestrial C cycling (for example, Menzel and others 2006; Myneni and others 1997). Figure 5B shows that rainfall in August 2008 was about 50% above normal, whereas August rainfall in the other 4 years varied around 70% below normal. In 2005, August Re was slightly higher than in either of 2006 or 2007, although the latter 2 years were warmer (Figure 1A–B). This result was likely due to microbial decomposition of residual labile material in 2005 from previous years’ agricultural crops. Although this heterotrophic component of Re probably decreased in 2006, and 2007, the autotrophic component (that is, plant respiration) increased each year as the trees became established—hence there was relatively little change in Re over the first 3 years (Figure 5B). August Re for 2005 to 2009 were 60, 50, 54, 90, and 100 g C m-2, whereas GEP totals were 14, 29, 43, 113, and 150 g C m-2, respectively (Figure 5B). Somewhat similar to the results for June, GEP in August increased in each of 2008 and 2009, relative to the previous year, by approximately 163% and 33%, respectively. In comparison, increases in August Re during 2008 and 2009, compared to the previous year, were 67% and 11%, respectively, or approximately one third of GEP. Therefore, it appears that soil water availability had a greater influence on GEP than on Re, possibly because the plant hydraulic pathway (for example, xylem embolism resistance) (Sperry 2003) and leaf stomatal conductance (Krishnan and others 2006) in these hybrid poplar trees are very sensitive to soil moisture content. These results are also consistent with Barr and others (2007) who reported that for the SOA site, mild-tomoderate drought suppressed Re (mainly through the suppression of heterotrophic respiration near the soil surface) but had little effect on GEP, whereas severe droughts suppressed both Re and GEP but with greater impact on GEP. The root systems of these 5-year old trees likely were not fully developed and confined to upper soil layers, so they would be relatively sensitive to limited soil water availability. Reduced metabolic activity would then greatly affect water and nutrient uptake, hence limiting photosynthesis quite significantly. Ecosystem respiration is controlled by multiple environmental (for example, temperature and moisture) and biotic (for example, production and allocation of photosynthate) variables and by the complex interactions among them (Högberg and others 2001; Davidson and Janssens 2006; Johnsen and others 2007). We used the model of Jassal and others (2005) to make preliminary estimates of soil respiration rates from the profiles of soil CO2 concentration measured using the Vaisala CO2 sensors. These estimates could be compared to the above canopy measurements of NEE. During 2005, and for much of 2006, heterotrophic soil respiration was close to 100% of measured NEE because the trees were only recently established and competing weed vegetation treated with herbicide and frequent mechanical weeding, while the soil contained large amounts of labile carbon residues from previous agricultural crops. For 2008 and 2009, the modeling and other studies (for example, Hanson and others 2000; Bond-Lamberty and others 2004) indicated that heterotrophic soil respiration would account for at least 50% of Re, depending on Carbon, Water, and Energy Exchanges of a Hybrid Poplar Plantation aboveground biomass and time of year. Figure 6 shows the seasonal cycle determined from the soil CO2 concentration measurements. There was a surprisingly large, transient peak every year around the time snow melted (mid-April), which is likely to be partially due to a decrease in substrate diffusivity as the surface layers were temporarily saturated with water from melting snow (Jassal and others 2005). It could also be due in part to exponential growth and multiplication of ‘‘snow molds’’ which have an optimal temperature range reported to be -2 to 0°C by Monson and others (2006) and Schmidt and others (2009). Soil CO2 concentration then increased exponentially with soil temperature from late April until late June as indicated by the slope of the increase, reflecting the intensification of microbial and plant root activity. In late July and August, soil CO2 concentration generally decreased back to the levels of early June, with the magnitude of this decrease largely due to the control of soil water availability on soil CO2 production. As senescence and dormancy progressed, soil CO2 concentration ramped down from September to December, but at a given soil temperature, soil CO2 concentration was higher in September than in May. This hysteresis probably was caused by greater availability of labile substrate (litter from leaves and fine root turnover) in September than in May. Figure 6 clearly shows the complexity of the seasonal controls on soil CO2 concentration, with different dominant variables influencing the concentration at different periods. Figure 6. Relationship between intra-annual changes in soil temperature and soil CO2 concentration measured at 100 mm depth at the hybrid poplar site, in the vicinity of the eddy covariance tower for 2005–2008 (data for 2009 were omitted due to sensor failure in winter 2008/2009). Large arrows with words in parentheses indicate the causes of the major changes in CO2 concentration. ANNUAL CARBON AND WATER BALANCES Table 1 shows the calculated annual GEP increased rapidly each year, from approximately 20 g C m-2 in 2005 to about 470 g C m-2 in 2009, whereas annual Re totals also generally increased but much less dramatically, from about 330 to 450 g C m-2. Table 1 (column 4) shows the stand became a small C sink for the first time in 2009, indicated by the annual NEE of -17 g C m-2 (negative NEE denotes downward CO2 flux and hence net uptake by the ecosystem). The calculated net loss of C in 2005 was also remarkably close to the 335 ± 8 g C m-2 reported by Saurette and others (2008) for the first year of another var. Walker plantation also established in central Alberta. In this study, our primary data quality control was the u* criterion for both daytime and nighttime EC measurements. For the period June to September, the u* criterion was used to remove about 14%, 11%, 17%, 12%, and 18% of the data for each of 2005 to 2009, respectively. As shown in Figure 7, ecosystem respiration in winter months was entirely estimated. Hence, Re was estimated for periods when the eddy covariance system was not operating, assuming a linear response of R10 to temperature and seasonality. Figure 7 provides an example of the smoothing approach described previously which was used to estimate annual carbon balances. It should be noted that the smoothing did not account for the very transient peaks in soil CO2 concentration seen in April 2006– 2009, which would imply a significant increase in measureable Re for a few days each year. It is therefore likely that the annual estimates of positive NEE are conservative and that in 2009, the small C sink may actually have been a small source. With these caveats in mind, the total loss of C from the stand over the 5 years was approximately 630 g m-2 (6.3 mg C ha-1). The time for a stand of trees to reach C-neutrality (that is, zero annual total NEE) depends on the history of land use, silvicultural practices, ecophysiological traits and growth rates of the vegetation, and climate and soil characteristics. Carbonneutrality was estimated to be 4 years for a slash pine plantation in Florida (Clark and others 2004), 4–5 years for a white pine plantation in southern Ontario (Peichl and others 2010), 13 years for Scots pine naturally regenerated after logging in Siberia (Schulze and others 1999), 19 years for boreal black spruce regenerated after fires in Manitoba (Litvak and others 2003), and 20 years for a coastal Douglas-fir plantation in British Columbia (Humphreys and others 2006). All of these earlier T. Cai and others Table 1. Summary of Annual Carbon and Water Balances at the Hybrid Poplar Plantation, 2005 to 2009 Year GEP (g C m-2) Re (g C m-2) NEE (g C m-2) P (mm) ET (mm) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 21 110 237 392 469 333 297 351 428 452 312 187 114 36 -17 352 358 395 414 226 281 304 304 323 277 Values for January to March 2005 and for November to December 2009 were estimated due to lack of local measurement data. Winter precipitation data were estimated from Environment Canada climate stations within a 90 km radius of the study site. Symbols are defined in the text. Figure 7. Calculated 5-day mean values of the normalized respiration rate at 10°C (R10), derived from nighttime half-hourly NEE measurements made when u* > 0.1 m s-1 (open circles) compared to the smoothed values (solid squares) used to estimate ecosystem respiration as a function of half-hourly air temperature. A minimum value of 0.5 was assumed for the smoothed value of R10 during winter. studies ‘‘traded space for time’’ by studying chronosequences, that is, by comparing the annual C fluxes for multiple stands of distinctive developmental stages and ages (Amiro 2001; Goulden and others 2006). Although such studies are extremely useful, they suffer from concerns about differences in soil conditions and microclimate which may confound the long-term trends inferred from multiple sites over short periods. In contrast, the present study followed the stand’s C dynamics directly and continuously from the date of planting. This unique feature was possible because we were able to locate a plantation extensive enough to enable excellent eddy covariance measurements to be made over multiple years. Furthermore, the rapid achievement of C-neutrality reflects the intrinsically fast growth of this hybrid poplar variety, which may be comparable to pine plantations reported by Clark and others (2004) and Peichl and others (2010). The planned rotation age for man- Figure 8. Seasonal water balances from June 2005 until November 2009. For illustrative purposes, the annual totals of precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) were split into active (June–September) and dormant (October–May) periods. aged hybrid poplar stands in central Alberta is only 20 years. Annual totals of evapotranspiration (ET) varied from year to year (Table 1, column 5) and were compared to annual precipitation in Figure 8. Total ET and P were partitioned into two periods for each year: ‘‘dormant’’ (October–May) and ‘‘active’’ (June–September). This was necessary because the EC system was not operational during the winter months, and it is important to recognize that the ET data presented for winter periods are estimates that should be treated with caution. Dormant period ET (mainly soil evaporation and snow sublimation) generally accounted for approximately 20% of the annual total except for 2006, when it accounted for almost 45%, likely because the dormant period during 2006 was warmer and wetter than normal (Figure 1), leading to higher evaporation from the largely exposed soil surface. ET during the active period generally exceeded or barely balanced the corresponding P, demonstrating the importance of Carbon, Water, and Energy Exchanges of a Hybrid Poplar Plantation winter precipitation (mainly snowfall) to meet summer evaporative demand. Although leaf area index (LAI) of the trees achieved during 2009 was certainly the highest of the 5 years, annual ET was the lowest in that year and still exceeded annual P. In particular, P during the active period of 2009 was only about 50% of the corresponding ET. Our estimates of winter ET do not account for the possible effects of stand structure on water vapor sublimation from the snow surface. It is possible that the sheltering effect provided by the trees from the end of the 2007 growing season onwards would reduce sublimation compared to a bare field, helping to conserve moisture for the following growing season. The importance of such an effect remains conjectural, but could be investigated if year round EC measurements could be accomplished. Annual ET at the hybrid poplar stand during the first 5 years was lower than that at SOA, where the average was approximately 420 mm during 1994– 2003 (Griffis and others 2003; Barr and others 2007; Krishnan and others 2006). The stand density for SOA is approximately 830 stems ha-1, compared to 1,100 stems ha-1 for the much younger poplar stand with regular 3 m spacing. Given that annual precipitation in 2005–2009 has generally been at or below normal and that the stand has yet to achieve maximum LAI, it is still possible that ET at the hybrid poplar stand could match or exceed that at SOA. At present, the hybrid poplar stand does not have a significant understory, unlike the dense hazelnut cover at SOA, due mainly to aggressive weed control practices. However, as the trees are now tall enough to shade out competing vegetation, weed control will no longer be needed, and it is to be expected that understory evapotranspiration may become more significant, particularly as the fastigiate growth habit of the var. Walker poplar clone will prevent complete canopy closure from occurring during the 20-year rotation. In comparison with coniferous stands, annual ET was similar to that for a southern boreal old black spruce stand (300 mm) and higher than that of a southern boreal old jack pine stand (237 mm), both reported by Kljun and others (2006). It was also markedly lower than that of a mature coastal Douglas-fir stand (400 mm) (Jassal and others 2010). The low P in 2009 evidently limited NEE, demonstrating that annual precipitation at this site can already limit growth as well as ET. It remains to be seen whether a return to ‘‘normal’’ annual precipitation will occur in coming years to stimulate more rapid growth and annual ET comparable to or exceeding other boreal region forest stands, or whether the recent series of below-normal years is more typical of the future, imposing limitations on growth rates. Increased summer continental drying and associated drought at mid-latitudes have been cited as a likely consequence of global climate change (IPCC 2007). The continuation of our study will help address how deciduous plantations at mid-latitudes will respond to severe and persistent droughts (Hogg and others 2005; Krishnan and others 2006), and their effect on regional climate and hydrology (Hogg and others 2000; Jackson and others 2005). LARGE-SCALE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS STUDY Several studies have indicated that changes in land surface cover, particularly those affecting leaf area index (LAI), can affect precipitation patterns, and may already have had significant impacts on global climate (for example, Chase and others 1996; Pielke Sr 2001). In Canada’s Prairie Provinces, where much of the 9 million ha considered suitable for afforestation exists (Natural Resources Canada 2006), droughts are frequent and likely to increase according to many global climate model scenarios (IPCC 2007). Given the potential for increased ET as hybrid poplar stands reach maturity, large-scale afforestation might cause local water tables to be lowered (compared to grassland or dryland crops such as wheat). If these plantations do use more water, however, this does not necessarily make less water available elsewhere. Hogg and others (2000) found that a significant fraction of rainfall in the western boreal forests is likely recycled, having been evaporated from the grassland and agricultural regions further south. CONCLUSIONS The carbon (C) budget of a fast-growing hybrid poplar plantation established in a water-limited region of central Alberta, Canada, was measured using eddy covariance for the five growing seasons following planting in June 2005. Gross ecosystem production (GEP) increased every year, causing the annual C balance to shift from being a source of at least 3.3 mg C ha-1 in the first year to approximately C neutral in 2009. There was significant interannual variation in growing season duration, heat sum, and water balance over the 5 years, which greatly affected annual C balance. The analysis showed that GEP and ecosystem respiration were particularly sensitive to temperature during spring and to soil water availability in summer. In particular, 2009 was noteworthy for T. Cai and others being exceptionally cold in spring and for receiving only 50% of normal precipitation. The low spring temperatures delayed leaf emergence and development significantly, whereas the very dry conditions reduced growth rates throughout July and August—both contributing to annual growth and carbon uptake well below their potential that year. In fact annual rainfall was lower than the 30-year normal in 4 out of the 5 years, which raised questions about regional climate trends, the potential responses of the plantation in wetter than normal years, and the general viability of afforestation in this region with a warming climate. It is probable that as the plantation increases in size and leaf area index (LAI), growth will become even more water-limited in some years. Even if precipitation increases in the future (as expected from climate scenario projections), it is unlikely this increase would generally be sufficient to offset the increased evaporative demand. Albedo measured at the eddy covariance tower did not change appreciably over three winters, even as the trees and LAI grew rapidly, (except in February 2006 when early snowmelt was almost certainly not limited to the plantation). These results suggest that large scale modeling estimates of increased radiative forcing due to lower albedo resulting from afforestation in high latitudes could be significantly exaggerated in regions where fastgrowing deciduous plantations can be established over large areas. However, as with the trends observed to date in the annual energy balances, it is important to remember that the plantation has not yet reached maturity, so assertions for future changes in albedo remain conjectural. Because there are multiple feedbacks resulting from changes in land use, affecting both water and energy balances as well as C dynamics, the climatic consequences of replacing present-day agricultural land with extensive forest plantations in a region that is already water-limited cannot easily be determined. Resolving such questions will require process models, adequately calibrated using data from comprehensive multi-year studies such as the one reported here, to realistically couple vegetation physiological responses to regional climate. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank management and staff of Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc. for their continued interest and financial support. 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