PT
O
Jeremy Kinsman
DOSSIER
The democracy movements that swept North Africa and the Middle East are “global
game changers,” observes Jeremy Kinsman, our lead writer on foreign affairs. But, he
adds, “it is too early to tell how well democracy will take in either country [in Tunisia and
Egypt] and whether it will now blossom elsewhere in the Middle East, but a different
trend line has been set for human political aspiration and in Western public opinion.”
The whole region is in question, including Libya, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia.
S
DEMOCRACY RISING: TUNISIA
AND EGYPT, WHEN IDEALISTS
GOT IT RIGHT
IO N
Si le mouvement démocratique qui balaie l’Afrique du Nord et le Moyen-Orient
pourrait effectivement « changer la donne mondiale », observe notre principal
collaborateur en matière d’affaires étrangères, « il est trop tôt pour prédire si la
démocratie l’emportera dans l’un des pays de la région [en Tunisie ou en Égypte] et
si elle s’imposera ailleurs au Moyen-Orient. Mais d’ores et déjà, une nouvelle page
est en train de s’écrire pour ce qui est des aspirations humaines et politiques, et le
mouvement infléchit l’opinion publique occidentale. » La région entière est à
surveiller, y compris la Libye, le Bahreïn et l’Arabie saoudite.
W
hen I argued in the February issue of Policy
Options, in “Truth and Consequence: The
WikiLeaks Saga,” that the leak of the US cables
had beneficial impacts, we hadn’t yet seen the report by
the US Ambassador to Tunisia about his dinner at the
home of President Ben Ali’s brother-in-law, its descriptions
of decadent excess, a tiger in a cage, arrogance, entitlement and waste.
That seaside villa has since been wasted by vengeful citizens, its occupants having flown in the wake of Ben Ali’s
own escape to Saudi Arabia.
It wasn’t the leaked cable that overturned Ben Ali, but
it became part of the combustible material that in December
caught fire. The college graduate fruit seller, Mohammed
Bouzizi, face slapped by a female police officer, his wares
confiscated for a minor infraction, set himself aflame and
died on January 2, having written he sought only his dignity, a message that resonated throughout a country fed up
with a corrupt and authoritarian clan that, for its amusement, kept tigers in cages and, for its enrichment, a whole
population in subordination.
The events that cascaded through Tunisia and then
Egypt are global game-changers. It is too early to tell how
well democracy will take in either country and whether it
will now blossom elsewhere in the Middle East, but a different trend line has been set for human political aspiration
and in Western public opinion.
P
rior to the Tunisian breakout, public interest in established democracies had sunk to a new low.
In the US, when pollsters the Pew Research Center
asked citizens to indicate their chosen priorities in foreign
policy, democracy promotion was noted by only 10 percent,
a drop in 10 years from 44 percent, the biggest drop for any
category recorded since the Second World War.
The explanations are no mystery. Ten years ago, the
Bush administration launched its “freedom agenda,” an
exercise in national hubris that was used to explain the
invasion of Iraq, when the other reasons such as WMD
and support for 9/11 came up dry. Americans pushed back
at the notion it is their business to worry about how other
people were governed. The quagmire of Afghanistan sealed
the point.
When I was going through US Border Protection at
Seattle Airport in 2007 to take up direction of an international democracy support project for the Community of
Democracies I was conducting out of Princeton University,
the tough African-American officer bridled when she heard
the reason for my visit.
“You’re doing WHAT?” she asked. “Haven’t we stuck
our noses enough in other folks’ business? Haven’t we done
enough damage?”
So they had. And with the deepest economic recession
in 60 years on their plates, as well as a vivid debate about
the quality of American governance, American democrats
POLICY OPTIONS
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37
Jeremy Kinsman
weren’t feeling much solidarity with
the aspirations of would-be democrats
across the sea.
The drop in support paralleled
what Freedom House, which keeps
democratic score globally, termed a
“democratic recession” in its 2010
Annual Report. For the fourth year in a
to me that New York Times columnist
Roger Cohen is right, that “an authoritarian decade” — led by China and
Russia — “has run its course.” In the
Middle East, authoritarians are banding together to push back protestors.
President Obama is trying pragmatically to urge the Gulf’s princely
democracy, that the two — Arabs and
democracy — don’t fit together.
S
o we accept false choices, such as
belief that the choice in Egypt
was between a dictator and rule by
hostile Islamists. In Bahrain, the
rhetorical choice is between rule by a
clan of Sunnis who are 20
The events that cascaded through Tunisia and then Egypt are percent of the population,
with 80 percent who,
global game-changers. It is too early to tell how well
being Shia, must be cats’
democracy will take in either country and whether it will now paws of the Iranians. On
blossom elsewhere in the Middle East, but a different trend
the consumer side, Saudi
Arabian youth is given the
line has been set for human political aspiration and in
false compensation of
Western public opinion.
material comfort in return
for a dearth of human rights.
row,
retreats
from
democracy
regimes to accept inevitable reforms
Some European countries disoutscored gains, the longest period
while fearing inward collapse in
graced themselves. The French governthat had happened in 40 years.
strategically key points.
ment of President Nicolas Sarkozy,
Would-be democrats suffered
A conservative-liberal political
who created the “Union of the
under the growing confidence of
argument roils the op-ed pages in
Mediterranean” with Egypt’s Hosni
authoritarian regimes. China’s ecoCanada. On successive March days in
Mubarak as co-chairman, was particunomic gains had created expectations
the Globe and Mail, historian Jack
larly compromised. The French foreign
that legitimacy didn’t need democracy
Granatstein presumed Obama’s forminister resigned because of Tunisian
if one-party rule delivered greater proseign policy is a “disaster” because it
Christmas freebies, and the scapegoatperity. Of course, it’s a false bargain,
doesn’t put unspecified security intered ambassador in Tunisia was fired —
but China’s economic growth rates
ests ahead of Arab democratic aspirahe hadn’t seen the revolt coming, the
seemed a contrast to the struggles of
tions, while Beirut editor Rami Khouri
some new democracies with the chalFrench foreign ministry at the Quai
argued the US is marginalized because
lenges of democratic transition. Some,
d’Orsay explained, because relations
its support for democratic principles in
like Russia, were withdrawing rights
with fraternal Tunisia were too “intithe area is muted by US interests.
only recently gained because of the
mate” for perspective.
Obama probably has it about right.
growing popular notion that democraThat wasn’t an American problem.
cy had undermined order and security.
major question for democracies is
WikiLeaks showed us, as Tom
An “authoritarian internationale”
Malinovski of Human Rights Watch
why it all came as a surprise.
had sprung up, with the Chinese helpput it, US diplomats “might just mean
It always does. There have been
ing Iranians game social network techwhat they say” about human rights,
over 60 democratic uprisings since
nologies,
Moammar
Ghaddafi
that their privately communicated
Portugal in 1974 (323 revolutions
financing Robert Mugabe and Hugo
views were the same as discourse in
since 1900) and we are always surChavez
cheering
on
anybody
public. Authoritarian leaders who had
prised. We over-invest in the status
Americans were opposed to.
in the past counted on CIA winking
quo, which we equate with security
The Tunisian and Egyptian demoand nodding in inconsistency were,
and stability. That the undemocratic
cratic uprisings turned the negative trend
and are, rattled.
Middle East is inherently unstable has
lines on their heads. A new Zeitgeist has
Of course, the first lesson about
been obscured by our deference to oil,
spread across the Arab world from
the breakout of democracy is that it
counter-terrorism, business deals, and
Tunisia, that authoritarian pretensions to
can’t be exported or imported. It has to
a line out of Israel that is scornful of
legitimacy could be challenged. This
emerge from the people in question.
Arabs and their aspirations.
“Arab awakening” is real, whether or not
So, how did it happen?
These focal points override our
regimes fall to protestors elsewhere.
As democracy advocate and theovalues and also our judgment. Too
Information technology connections liftrist Thomas Carothers has explained,
many bought into statements as recent
ed Arab youth from their humiliating isodemocracy breakout and transition
as a month ago from former vice-preslation from the wider world.
have two initial chapters. Chapter one
ident Omar Suleiman of Egypt or
Across that wider world, authoriinvolves throwing off a dictator.
Crown Prince Al Khalifa of Bahrain
tarians are rattled. It does seem likely
Chapter two is the sometimes more
that Arabs just “aren’t ready” for
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38
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Democracy rising: Tunisia and Egypt, when idealists got it right
daunting job of building the new democratic form of governance and making it deliver what people need in the
way of livelihood and security in addition to rights and justice.
Popular uprisings are created over
time. They emerge when a closed society’s open secrets become “public
truths,” as US scholar Clay Shirky put
it in Foreign Affairs. Examples in
Tunisia of what Shirky terms “shared
awareness” would run the gamut of
narrative about the ruling family’s
intimidation-for-profit, corruption,
police abuse and shaming behaviour.
It is not that Tunisia was in a state of
grinding poverty, but rather that education resulted in lack of professional
fulfilment. Poorer people could
expect no justice.
W
estern commentators poohpoohed the chances of Tunisia’s
uprising migrating to Egypt where it
was said the population was passively
fatalistic. When Obama grabbed the
chair of his first National Security
Council meeting on the topic, he
found the consensus expert analysis
gave only a 20 percent chance of
Egyptians taking up the Tunisian
uprising example.
“We are all Khaled Said,” heralded
the Facebook page about the young
computer businessman beaten to
death by security thugs. Five million
Egyptians are on Facebook. Tahrir
Square filled with a wide array of protestors demanding Mubarak’s ouster.
The government turned off the
Internet and telecommunicaThe Tunisian and Egyptian
tions for cellphones (contrary
democratic uprisings turned the
to assumptions it couldn’t be
uch has been written
negative trend lines on their heads. done
just like that) but it only
about the role of inforA new Zeitgeist has spread across
made more people pour into
mation technologies and espethe street to find out what was
cially social networks in
the Arab world from Tunisia, that
going on. Psychologically, it
chapter one uprisings.
authoritarian pretensions to
to a tipping point
No doubt they provide a
legitimacy could be challenged. This contributed
where people, ordinary people,
powerful instrument for mobi“Arab awakening” is real, whether who were not especially politilizing and convening protest.
cal at all, felt they had to be
In Manila in 2001 text messagor not regimes fall to protestors
ing brought a million people
elsewhere. Information technology there even at the risk to their
The support Mubarak
wearing black into the streets
connections lifted Arab youth from lives.
expected from the usual estaband turned out the corrupt
their humiliating isolation from the lished scaredy-cats once vioPresident Joseph E. Estrada..
lence and disorder broke out —
The death of a young woman
wider world.
if Mubarak’s thugs could only
protestor in Tehran, shot down
In Egypt, because Mubarak’s long
force it to — didn’t materialize in any
in the 2009 Green Movement uprising,
reign was seen as important for the
decisive way.
was uplinked to YouTube and galva“peace process,” Westerners turned
The world watched, mesmerized,
nized the Internet.
their scrutiny away from the pent-up
and largely inspired. Public opinion
In Tunisia, Twitter and Facebook
resentments of Egyptians over corruptrend lines about supporting other
brought demonstrators out.
tion, lousy services and lack of accompeople’s aspirations for democracy
But the significant communications
plishment at the national level — 44
began to shift. Eighty-three percent of
had been going on for years among
percent of Egyptians are illiterate —
Americans thought Mubarak should
Tunisians, creating that “shared awareand for individuals. Egyptian engistep down — “now.”
ness.” They had been connected to the
neers and other professionals roamed
Its spread to Libya has been a less
outside. They knew what norms of govthe Gulf and North Africa as itinerants
fortunate story. Nonviolence couldn’t
ernance are elsewhere, what they were
because there was no work at home.
hold against a dictator with security
being deprived of. Moreover, young
Egypt has grinding poverty but
forces willing to shoot people down.
activists were connected to protest predalso a professional middle class, and
Libya had no civil society to speak of.
ecessors elsewhere, youth movements
pillars of civil society, including, of
Tribal divisions contrast with Egypt’s
like Otpor in Belgrade who turned out
course, the Muslim Brotherhood
sense of being a 7,000-year-old nation. At
Milosevic, and Pora! in Kiev who
Mubarak tried to demonize, but which
this writing in mid-March 2011, the UN
reversed the election coup in Ukraine.
Egyptians know is actually pretty
Security Zone and the Arab League have
These democrats (and some interesting
mainstream.
authorized a “no-fly zone” over Libya.
international
NGOs)
mentored
Tunisians — and Egyptians — in techniques of nonviolent civil resistance.
This sort of communications work
over time forms what Shirky calls the
environmental context of social networking, when civil society builds its
capacities and beliefs. He writes we
spend too much effort trying to persuade authoritarians to keep our foreign
“instruments” unfettered, Web sites
and TV feeds like the New York BBC
World, when the really conclusive contributions to shared awareness are what
the people in closed societies are able to
say among themselves.
The general point is that people
still make revolutions, not information technologies.
M
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Jeremy Kinsman
Canada is participating with six CF-18
fighter jets and support staff based in the
Mediterranean. We shall see how effective this is in pushing back Ghaddafi’s
push-back of the popular revolt against
his 42-year despotic regime.
Chapter one conflicts between
democratic protestors and authoritari-
racy. Of course, the Saudis claim it is a
step to counter Iranian influence. It is
really a step to counter the influence
of democrats in the Wahabi kingdom
of the El-Saud clan itself, stuck in a
theocratic time warp where women
aren’t allowed to drive and where
youth isn’t expected to think.
narily difficult and deserves more than
the usual braying about “Obama’s
incompetence.”
Are the Maghreb and Middle
Eastern experiences likely to reverberate much more widely or is it a
question of a delayed “Arab spring”
catching up? Are global trend lines
really changed? The unanimous Security Council
Tahrir Square filled with a wide array of protestors demanding
to kick Ghaddafi’s
Mubarak’s ouster. The government turned off the Internet and vote
Libya out of the UN
telecommunications for cellphones (contrary to assumptions it Human Rights Council,
where Libyans had held
couldn’t be done just like that) but it only made more people
sway for years, and to
pour into the street to find out what was going on.
his lethal suppresPsychologically, it contributed to a tipping point where people, refer
sion of Libyan protest to
ordinary people, who were not especially political at all, felt
the International Criminal Court, do suggest a
they had to be there even at the risk to their lives.
much
wider
political
Neil MacFarquar of the New York
an control are inherently asymmetriimprint.
cal. The regime has all the tools of
Times regretted that the political
force. Many dictators have learned
ill it help aspiring democrats
demise of Mubarak would mean the
they cannot count on the professional
elsewhere to turn out authoriend of anti-Mubarak jokes in Egypt. He
army and must have blindly loyal
tarian rulers and enable them to have
sought replenishment in Saudi Arabia.
forces — like Iran’s Revolutionary
a say in decisions taken over their
It wasn’t easy to find but finally he
Guards — so heavily invested in the
lives, which is really the most basic of
came up with a Saudi political joke.
regime’s survival they will use all the
human political rights?
A Somali, an Egyptian and a Saudi
firepower at their disposal, which is
To answer, we need to study why
are asked their opinion on the eating
what has happened in Libya (where
of meat. The Somali, baffled, replies,
some democratic protest uprisings sucshamefully, the Algerian military has
“What’s ‘eating’?” The Egyptian asks,
ceed and others fail. Here are six combeen adding to the arms available).
“What’s ‘meat’?” The Saudi asks,
mon features of success:
Western democracies have a
Income levels. As a rule, when per
“What’s an opinion?”
dilemma. The Libyan revolution can
capita annual income exceeds $6,000, a
Yemen is another locale of
only claim authenticity if Libyans
protest movement will succeed. When
protest. It’s a hard case. Outside the
bring it off without foreign, especially
it is below $1,500, it won’t. (Egypt’s is
capital, Sana’a, it is basically anarWestern, boots on Libyan soil. But
about $2,800, about the same as
chy. Unemployment is officially 37
some sort of military support to help
Indonesia, where it succeeded.)
percent. Everyone has at least a gun
balance the unfair fight seemed to
There are qualifiers. Authoritarian
or two. Al-Qaeda is there. Across the
many to be within the purview of the
oil-wealthy states may not turn out so
narrow Bab el Mandeb Strait of the
“responsibility to protect” — at one
happily for democrats, even when the
Red Sea sits Somalia, where altime not so long ago a policy initiative
revenues are distributed inadequately,
Qaeda, gangs and pirates inhabit a
that redounded to Canadian honour.
as was the case in Libya. Occasionally,
state deemed to be failed almost 20
Ghaddafi and his odious sons,
a very poor country, such as Mali, does
years ago. Oil from the Gulf goes
courted once by Canadian businesses,
come up with its form of democracy.
through that narrow passage to
scholars and even Prime Minister Paul
The point is not really about
Europe and America.
Martin, all eager for deals, are going to
income, of course, but about infraWhat is Obama to do? The US
be pariahs internationally. Democracy
structure and social capital. A wealthiFifth Fleet is in Bahrain, and part of
will come to Libya, if not in the near
er country will have civil society pillars
the US oil addiction is supplied along
term, then before long.
able to conduct on social networks the
the Yemen Coast where al-Qaeda has
Other authoritarians are clamping
sort of national conversation that conprobably its ultimate redoubt. The US
down. The Saudis, under the banner of
tributes to the social awareness “someis trying, pragmatically, country by
the Gulf Cooperation Council, have
thing must be done.”
country to manage without glaring
moved troops into Bahrain to help
Civil society. The existence of civil
inconsistency the collision between
defend the Khalifa family from democsociety is fundamental, not just for
principles and interests. It is extraordi-
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40
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Democracy rising: Tunisia and Egypt, when idealists got it right
CP Photo
An Egyptian girl waves her national flag as antigovernment protesters demonstrate around her in Tahrir, or Liberation Square.
The tumultuous events of the Arab Spring then rolled on into Libya.
democratic transition but for development on all levels.
Political effect emerges from
apolitical activity on a private, nongovernmental level. ANC militants
against apartheid in South Africa cut
their organizational teeth in football
clubs white rulers seemed to leave
alone. In Prague, in the 1990s, the
music scene helped the Velvet
Revolution prepare. In Cuba recently, I saw daycare centres for single
working mothers set up by the
Catholic Church where women were
taking decisions about something
they were running for the first time
in their lives.
Empowerment happens in many
ways. What is clear is that without a
functioning civil society, people who
have banded together in unions, professional organizations, environmental movements and day-to-day
activities like running libraries or coops, a chapter one uprising will have
much greater difficulty transiting
through chapter two, building the new
democracy.
The army. The role of the army is
often decisive. In Prague, Belgrade,
Kiev and Jakarta, the army refused to
fire on the people. Their own people.
In Cairo’s Tahrir Square, the army
stayed neutral until Mubarak’s thugs
began to attack peaceful protestors. On
February 2, the army intervened
against them and Mubarak fell.
Why did the army refuse orders to
shoot and then intervene decisively?
Did they see that Mubarak was by that
time a loser and just change sides? After
all, the Egyptian military is a big economic stakeholder in the country,
accounting for up to 30 percent of GDP.
There is something professionally
more noble to be factored in. The army
is a very respected national institution.
The principle of being the defender “of
all the people” is real to its officers.
This is especially so because of
training they have had at staff colleges
POLICY OPTIONS
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41
Jeremy Kinsman
in democracies. Many commentators
Discipline. It is essential that proThey shouldn’t be in competition. We
have presumed the $1.3 billion in US
testors therefore maintain discipline.
can do more than one thing at a time.
annual military aid is mostly what
As noted, there has been an internaIt is a lesson that distinguishes the
influenced Egyptian military leaders.
tional mentoring chain of instruction
Obama administration from US policy
More likely, it is the “mil-mil” mentorin nonviolent civil resistance training,
during much of the Cold War or the
ing countless officers have had at the
more or less in the wake of the writings
“War on Terror.”
US Army Staff College on the sorts of
of nonviolent guru Gene Sharp, whose
Strategic engagement is essential,
issues that weren’t taught when such
key book, From Dictatorship to
with China, Iran, Cuba and others. But
as a young Idi Amin went abroad to
those partnerships on issues of comDemocracy, is essentially the basic text.
train: human rights, civilian authority,
mon functional concern have to be
The counterpart to discipline in
transparency.
deployed as well on behalf of our prinnonviolence is discipline to minimize
The Ukrainian army didn’t fire on
ciples, which argue for supporting the
in-fighting among protestors who
protestors in the Orange Revolution.
rights of assembly and free speech
have one purpose in common, to
For 15 years the officers had been
denied citizens of the countries conthrow off the yoke, but who come
going through NATO partnership procerned. It is not on our account we
from often very different places in
grams. Conscripts saw themselves
speak with clarity and candour to the
terms of their political conceptions of
reflected in the youthful demonstraregimes concerned, but to make sure
what sort of democratic governance
tors on the Maidan.
they understand that any strategic
should follow.
Contrary examples, sadly, abound.
partnership needs efforts on their part
Popular protest movements are usuIn Tiananmen Square (1989), Rangoon
to accommodate the human rights
ally
bottom-up
phenomena.
(2007) and Tehran (2009), orders to
they have in almost every case agreed
Charismatic leaders such as Aung San
shoot protestors were obeyed.
to in a whole host of UN and other
Suu Kyi can serve effectively as emblemIn Burma, the army is the hermit
covenants and that they proclaim
atic inspirers, but most movements are
every day in propaganda. Consistency
genuinely popular not relying on topregime, and the country’s wealth is the
is critical for credibility.
down command and control, making
army’s spoils.
discipline all the more vital.
In China, an ideological cohesion kicks in. In Iran, it is more theoOutside support. Democracy can
osni Mubarak, in office for 30
cratic, spearheaded through the
neither be exported nor imported. It
years, fell after only 18 days of
Revolutionary Guards whom Iraniancertainly can’t be imposed through
democratic protests, the same length
of time it took demonstrators on the
Canadian expert Ramin Jehanbegloo
Iraq-style “regime change.” It needs to
Maidan in Kiev to bring about the
concludes actually control the counemerge from within, to be authentic
Orange Revolution. Often, the seemand enduring.
try as well as its oil, gas and nuclear
industries.
Nonviolence. It is essen- What is Obama to do? The US Fifth Fleet is in Bahrain, and
tial for success that popular part of the US oil addiction is supplied along the Yemen Coast
protests be nonviolent. where al-Qaeda has probably its ultimate redoubt. The US is
Gandhi and Martin Luther
trying, pragmatically, country-by-country to manage without
King are often described as
being “peaceful” protestors. glaring inconsistency the collision between principles and
Nothing could be more interests.
wrong. They disturbed the
ingly invulnerable drop the quickest:
peace to effect change, through civil
But outside support can be
Ceausescu was dispatched in Romania
resistance, which is a form of conflict,
extremely useful. Democratic governin just 10 days.
but nonviolent by definition.
ments can help buttress civil society’s
But the post-uprising phase has
Such conflicts being asymmetridevelopment everywhere, in a myriad
immediate perils. Post-Shah of Iran,
cal, the use of force invites counterof ways, but it isn’t as much a state
post-fall of Saddam, post-death of Tito,
force, which is bound to be superior.
interest as it is one in the interest of
post-French revolution for that matter,
Moreover, the use of violence
our own civil societies. International
all veered toward extremists or into
alienates the bulk of people. In the
NGOs do it better. Governments supchaos, when there is always a wouldhierarchy of needs, safety and security
port it as a function of solidarity with
be Napoleon ready to fill the void. It is
come at the top.
democrats in our own societies, not as
Authoritarian regimes want viowhy chapter two — governance —
a function of state interest.
lence to break out so that they can
needs to be prepared and, to the extent
This introduces a vital issue of
reassure troubled citizenry they are
it is purposeful, mentored, long in
management for democracies. We
restoring order and safety.
advance.
have principles and we have interests.
H
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Democracy rising: Tunisia and Egypt, when idealists got it right
cy, fairness, justice and adequately
shared economic progress.
that chronologically major anti-democratic abuses persisted in our own
democracies until recently, and that
today the fault lines of anti-democratic
he key is for a democratic governbehaviour are major objects of our own
ment in transition to establish its
citizens’ complaints.
legitimacy. It comes from much more
The rule of law doesn’t come from
than free and fair elections.
copying our statutes or mimicking our
Reconciliation after conflict is
courts. The rule of law — as Thomas
important. The circle of retribution
Carothers has written — resides within
needs to be narrow if the society is
the heads of citizens. By now we are
to move forward. Countries learn
hard-wired. It will take
time. We must stay the
The Saudis, under the banner of the Gulf Cooperation
course alongside as long as
Council, have moved troops into Bahrain to help defend the
we are welcome. Too often
Khalifa family from democracy. Of course, the Saudis claim it we have sent observers to
is a step to counter Iranian influence. It is really a step to
oversee a free and fair first
counter the influence of democrats in the Wahabi kingdom of election and then walked
away in self-satisfaction.
the El-Saud clan itself, stuck in a theocratic time warp where
We have to care about
women aren’t allowed to drive and where youth isn’t
the quality of other people’s
expected to think.
lives and opportunities.
Vaclav Havel has written in The Diplomat’s Handbook that
from one another. Chileans men1. It’s up to them. As Freedom House
tored South Africans in setting up a
has put it, “The men and women
“more and more people are aware of
truth and reconciliation commission
of each country are really the
the indivisibility of human fate on
and South Africans mentored
authors of their own democratic
this planet, that the problems of
Rwandans. The best mentors are
development.”
anyone of us, or of whatever country
often those who have gone through
2. There is no single template for
we are from — be it the smallest and
similar transitions.
democracy. Each trajectory is difmost forgotten — are the problems
But developed countries have the
ferent, pending on traditions and
of us all; that our freedom is indivismaterial and moral means to support
states of readiness.
ible as well, and that we all believe
democracy movements. We made
3. The building blocks of change are
in the same basic values, while sharmajor errors at the outset of the last
in civil society.
ing common fears about the threats
wave of democratic transition. We
4. Organic and durable change is
that are hanging over humanity
thought we could send expensive
usually bottom-up, rarely elitetoday.”
advisers from the World Bank and
driven.
That is what the brave citizens of
finance departments to tutor Russians
5. Successful transition relies on
Tunisia and Egypt have done. They
on how we do things in Frankfurt or
behaviour. It is not a process or an
have shaken the world. So have the
New York. We didn’t have a clue about
“app” to be downloaded or transequally brave citizens of Libya,
the uniqueness of their challenges,
ferred.
Bahrain and, yes, in their own way,
emerging from a totalitarian past and
6. Democracy thus has to be learned
Saudi Arabia. Stay tuned. More, after
turning everything upside-down at
and over time. Education is essenthe break.
once. I was there at the time, as
tial.
Canada’s ambassador to Moscow, and I
Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman
7. Free and fair elections are only
was both enthralled and appalled at
served as Canada’s ambassador or high
one of many starting points. Postwhat was going on, in terms of our
commissioner to 15 countries and organielection management of diversity
inputs and their outputs.
zations, including Russia, Britain and
and pluralism is critical.
It is not our democracy or econothe European Union. He currently heads
8. Violence is rarely effective as a
my we are trying to convey. The
a Community of Democracies program
force for change.
“Washington Consensus” is long-since
for democracy development and is
9. Democracy needs security — and
discredited. It is the development of
needs to ensure it.
Regents’ Lecturer at the University of
10. To sustain popular acceptance,
other new democracies that we are fraCalifornia, Berkeley. He is distinguished
democracy must deliver other
ternally supporting as we can, with
visiting diplomat at Ryerson University in
essential outcomes — transparenhumility and patience, bearing in mind
Toronto.
It is much easier for democracies
to support the phase of actual democratic transition, working openly
with a partner government and supporting civil society and institutional and other forms of governance
development.
Again, there are a number of basic
rules to success (adapted from The
Diplomat’s Handbook for Democracy
Development Support, 2nd ed.
T
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