Some tenets of demography
• Much of the world’s population growth has
occurred since 1750.
• Much of world’s population growth is
explained by the fact that the decline in
mortality has preceded, often by a
substantial interval, the decline in fertility
• This growth can be interpreted in terms of
the demographic transition.
Demographic Transition – Basics
1)
Definition
2)
Graphical representation
3)
Stages
4)
Relationship to population growth
The Demographic Transition in France
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
CBR
CDR
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1790
1780
1770
1760
1750
0.0
Implications for population growth
Explanations
• Disappearance of crisis mortality
– Technological improvements re. storing and
transporting food
– Public health interventions
• Fertility decline
– Economic change, modes of production (classical
DTT)
– Cost of children – shifts in intergenerational resource
flows
– Fertility control within the calculus of conscious choice
– Ideational change, diffusion (spread of innovation),
social interaction (exchange of information and ideas,
social influence on behavior)
Historical variation in demographic transition
1) Within MDCs - historical transitions
a.
Role of development, language, culture
2) Within LDCs - modern transitions
a.
Role of external forces, media
3) Comparing experience of MDCs and LDCs
4) Interaction of development and networks
5) Problems with “reading history sideways”
Research on demographic transition
1) The Princeton project
2) Modern studies
a.
KAP surveys, WFS, DHS, etc.
3) Experiments, large scale projects
4) Ethnographic research
Transition “theory” and post-transition experience
1) Stabilization at replacement fertility predicted
2) Actual experience not so consistent with theory
3) A “second” demographic transition?
4) Explanations
5) Implications and projections