Hispanic Voter Profile
FEBRUARY 2010
As the second largest population group in the state, Hispanic Texans are
an increasingly important segment of the state’s population, emerging as a
driving force to the state’s diversity and growth, but more importantly in
shaping the state’s political landscape and outlook.
For some time the state of Texas has held the distinction of being the second largest most
populous state in the union. Population estimates produced by the U.S. Census over the past
decade show the state is at no risk of losing that distinction. Despite the population losses or
stagnation experienced by a number of large states, Texas population growth in the last decade
will likely secure the state four additional seats in the House of Representatives, after reapportionment.
Central to the continued demographic prominence of Texas are Hispanic Texans. As the
second largest population group in the state, Hispanic Texans are an increasingly impor-
tant segment of the state’s population, emerging as a driving force in the state’s diversity and
growth, but more importantly in shaping the state’s political landscape and outlook. Hispanics
have been an integral part of Texas history for centuries. However, from a demographic and
political perspective the impact of population growth and political participation beg a critical
analysis of the numbers. Understanding Hispanics in Texas from this perspective is important
in 2010; a year when both the decennial census and statewide gubernatorial and congressional
elections will intersect and seriously impact the state.
Hispanics in Texas: 2008 Statewide Overview
Total Population
Citizen Adults
Registered Voters
Total
23,845,989
14,931,764
12,869,043
Latino
8,566,395
3,568,782
2,725,306
36%
24%
21%
% Latino
Hispanics are currently the second largest population
group in the state, comprising nearly four of every ten
Texans (36%). The Hispanic population in the state
accounted for nearly nine million of the state’s 23.8
million inhabitants, according to US Census Bureau
data from 2008. Non-Hispanic Whites remain the
largest population group in Texas with a population
of 11.3 million.
Texas Hispanics have also been a driving force in the
state’s population gains over the past decade. Since the
2000 Census, the Texas population has grown by nearly
three million. Hispanics have accounted for nearly
two-thirds (63%) of this growth. As the 2010
Census gets underway these population gains may
play a key role in increasing the state’s political
representation in Congress and access to federal
funding.
Adult Share by Population
Texas by Race
A closer look at the Hispanic population from a political perspective reveals that like
the national Hispanic population, youth and non-citizenship noticeably reduce the
number of Hispanics eligible to participate in the state’s political process. While the
group accounts for 36% of the total population, they comprise 24% and 21% of
citizen adults and registered voters respectively.
Texas Latinos by Age
In comparison to the state’s other population
groups, a greater share of the Hispanic population is under 18 years of age (35% under 18).
Of the nearly nine million Hispanics a little
more than three million are under 18 years;
however, nearly a half million of these youth
(433,660) will turn eighteen over the next year.
Despite this lag, Hispanic citizen adults total
more than 3.5 million and registered voters
nearly three million, still comprising the
second largest electoral potential in Texas.
The Hispanic electorate in Texas has grown
significantly over the past decade. Between
2000 and 2004 the number of Hispanic registered voters who vote in even-year November
elections increased by nearly 20%. More than
a quarter of a million more voters turned out
to the polls in 2004, compared to 2000.
We witnessed a similar increase between
2004 and 2008 when the largest number
of Hispanics ever, turned out to vote.
The turnout represented an additional 271,000
Hispanic votes. More importantly, this figure
accounted for 61% of the increase in
total turnout for the state, in that period.
Like the total Hispanic population in Texas,
the Hispanic electorate is characterized by its
youth. Among registered Hispanics, nearly
half (47%) are under the age of 40. As this
electorate matures, it is very likely that its
presence at the polls will increase as well.
That is not to suggest however, that registered
Hispanics in Texas will stay home until then.
Currently, 58% of the Hispanic electorate is
characterized by voters with strong voting
histories and a strong likely hood voting.
Top 10 Latino Registration Counties
County
Total
Latino
%Latino
Bexar
869,720
380,142
44%
Harris
1,846,121
352,043
19%
El Paso
366,663
251,125
68%
Hidalgo
279,723
214,311
77%
1,101,123
160,263
15%
Cameron
165,207
127,155
77%
Tarrant
902,257
100,610
11%
Webb
101,141
90,197
89%
Nueces
183,982
89,488
49%
Travis
566,184
89,383
16%
Dallas
The concentration of the Hispanic electorate across the most populous Texas county’s
underscores the electorate’s increasing impact and role in the state’s electoral map.
In Harris County, which boasts the largest number of registered voters in the state;
Hispanics account for nearly 20% of registered voters. In Bexar County encompassing San Antonio, Latinos account for nearly half of all registered voters (44%).
In some smaller Counties (Webb, Cameron, Hidalgo) Latinos account for more
than three-quarters of the registered voter population.
The 2008 Presidential Election was historic for many reasons; in Texas the Hispanic vote
established its own milestone and place in Texas electoral politics. According to official voter
rolls, in November of 2008 nearly 1.4 million Hispanic registered voters cast ballots in the
election. Hispanic votes comprised 17% of the total state vote. Despite the record setting
turnout, however Hispanic turnout was noticeably less than the overall state turnout—50%
and 60% respectively.
An analysis of turnout at the County level, however, underscores the strategic importance of
a geographically concentrated Hispanic vote. Amongst the top ten Counties with the largest
number of total votes in November 2008, the Hispanic vote wielded varying levels of influence. In Harris County, with more than one million votes cast and comprising 15% of the
total state vote, one out of every ten voters was Hispanic. More than 137,000 Hispanics cast
ballots in Harris County. It is important to note less than twenty thousand votes separated
President Obama and Senator McCain in the County. Bexar County had the largest number
of Hispanic voters (207,349). Like Harris, Bexar the vote advantage for President Obama was
relative slim (29,252).
A closer look at competitive Counties in 2008 reveals a tremendous potential for the Hispanic
vote to impact electoral outcomes, whether through a swing in vote choice or a surge in turn-
out. In all but one of the competitive Counties, the total Hispanic vote is larger than the margin of victory. Moreover, four of the most competitive Counties in 2008 also boast the largest
numbers of Hispanic registered voters in the state.
Conclusion
The role of Hispanics and the Hispanic vote in Texas has become increasingly clear over the
past decade. The growth of the Hispanic electorate in particular signals the growing need for
political parties, candidates, and political pundits to consider the impact of this electorate on
the shape of politics to come. While many variables can impact the outcome of an election
the hard numbers in this analysis make it abundantly clear that in election cycles to come the
Hispanic vote will play an increasingly decisive role in the electoral outcomes of gubernatorial
and presidential candidates. Once an electorate with a regional influence, today’s nearly three
million Hispanic registered voters are a statewide factor. While the argument can still be made
that a statewide candidate can still win Texas without the strong support of the Hispanic vote
(e.g. McCain), there’s no debating that it is certainly more expensive. The geographic concen-
tration of the Hispanic vote, coupled with its growing size certainly makes for a more compact
community of voters that can yield great impact. Should the trends in Hispanic political participation continue over the next decade, the political map of Texas will certainly have adjusting to do.
About the Data
Latino Research & Communications produced this analysis by compiling an array of data from
various sources. Population statistics and demographics were compiled using 3-year aggregate
data from the 2008 American Community Survey released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Voter registration and 2008 Turnout statistics were compiled using a collection of sources.
Longitudinal analysis tracking the growth of the Hispanic electorate over time was compiled
using data from the U.S. Census Bureau Reports on Voting and Registration in the November Elections of 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008. Additional voter registration and voter his-
tory data sources include voter file data obtained from Catalist LLC and final official election
results from the Texas Secretary of State.