Feasibility Study for Promotion of International Infrastructure
Projects in FY2012
STUDY ON METRO LINE NO. 3 PROJECT
IN PANAMA CITY, REPUBLIC OF PANAMA
FINAL REPORT
【SUMMARY】
November 2012
Prepared for:
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Prepared by:
Nippon Koei Co., Ltd.
Mitsubishi Corporation
Hitachi, Ltd.
TOSTEMS, Inc.
(1) Background and Justification of the Project
Panama City as the capital of Republic of Panama is the center of politics and economy having a
population of 1.2 million in the metropolitan area. The Panama’s government established the Secretary
of Metro (Secretaría del Metro de Panama, SMP) under the direct control of the president of Panama
in 2009 to be in charge of the construction and operation for the urban transport system, and the
master plan was prepared by SMP planning four metro lines. The Metro Line 1 is currently under
construction.
The Metro Line 3, the target of this study, was planned for increasing demand of passenger trips from
Arraijan and La Chorrera in the west of the Panama Canal.
The city center of Panama is located in the east of the Canal and connected to districts in the west with
the America Bridge. The traffic volume is exceeding the bridge capacity in the morning and evening
peak hours, and the congestion is serious. Although the traffic demand is expected to keep increasing
due to the increase in population and car ownerships, the limited capacity of the road and bridge
accelerates the congestion level and brakes the development of the west regions. The east side of the
Canal is urbanized widely, so the west side development is necessary for efficient land use of the
metropolitan area.
The Metro Line 3 is expected not only to ease the serious congestion of the city and promote the
regional development, but also it takes an important role to shift passenger trips to public transport.
(2) Basic Approach on Deciding the Contents of the Project
The Metro Line 3 crosses the Panama Canal east and west. If the project is only to cross the Panama
Canal by tunnel or bridge, it would be difficult to verify the project by cost and benefit analysis. Based
on the demand forecast, the system for this project is classified into the medium capacity transit
system in Japan, which implies to avoid a large investment on underground or tunnels and to invest on
a system with an appropriate size for the project.
Based on the consideration above, basic approaches of this project is the followings.
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To save the cost, the Metro Line 3 is constructed with the 4th Bridge as a road and railway
bridge.
-
The system should be applicable to the gradient of the 4th bridge approach and section near the
Bridge.
-
Financially healthy fare level and demand forecast shall be applied on deciding the scale of the
system.
(3) Project Outline
The project is to construct monorail system with a length of approximately 23 km and 7 stations
connecting Panama City and Arraijan District in the west side of the Panama Canal where residential
developments are active in the recent years. The terminal will be located between the starting station
of the Metro Line 1 and the Albrook Bus Terminal considering easy transit among different modes.
There are two roads connecting Arraijan District and Panama City, but passing the one in the north is a
long way to the city center, so the route passing the America is congested at the peak hours. The traffic
congestion of the America Bridge continues for about 3 hours in the morning and evening.
The proposed system is a large scale monorail connecting Nuevo Arraijan and Albrook in about 30
minutes with a 4 car train set. Due to a number of topographical constraints, there was no route
option other than constructing the system along existing roads. Although the Study Team was
requested to study a tunnel plan, the idea was rejected because the construction cost of the tunnel that
is segregated for monorail route would be several times higher than that of the construction cost of the
4th Bridge. The proposed number of trains is 52 at the opening and increases to 124 by 2035
depending on its demand. The total project cost was estimated to be 1.0 billion USD, the EIRR was
10.68%, and the FIRR was -3.87% in the preliminary analysis.
Since the project route is proposed above or near the existing road, resettlements are expected to be
few. However, cutting down some trees will be an unavoidable issue because the route is the area
where many trees exist.
(4) Project Schedule
The proposed implementation schedule is shown in the figure below. If tender documents for the
design-build contract are included in scopes of the full-scale feasibility study, the implementation
period can be shortened with the premise that the construction of the 4th Bridge proceeds by ACP on
time.
Figure 1 Project Schedule (Assumed)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Br idge No . 4 C o n st r u c t io n
B a s i c Des i g n
Tender Sta g e
Cons tructi on
M e t r o Lin e 3 C o n st r u c t io n
F ea s i bi l i ty Study
F i na nci a l a rra ng ement
Tender Sta g e
Cons tructi on
Source: Proposed by the Study Team
(5) Feasibility on Request for ODA Loan and its Implementation
It is inferred from statements by the President of Panama and Executive Secretary of Metro that the
Government of Panama expects for the Japanese ODA loan. However, it is necessary to confirm the
implementation plan of the 4th Bridge because it is a precondition of the project.
There is no information that other international financing agency shows interest in this project, so far.
(6) Technical Advantages of Japanese Company
The capacity of monorail systems produced by the two foreign companies competing with Japan is
smaller and not able to meet the required demand of 20,000 passengers/hour. In addition, Hitachi, Ltd.
has much more experiences in monorail constructions.
A monorail car of the companies in Canada and Malaysia has a capacity of 140 only while a large size
monorail car of the Japanese company has a capacity of 200. Therefore, the foreign monorail system
requires 6-car composition to carry the passengers the Japanese monorail system can carry with 4-car
composition. Since this will affect not only the procurement cost of rolling stock but also the length
of stations and the size of depot, it is possible to show the advantage in the construction,
(7) Schedule for the Project Implementation and Risks against the
Project Implementation
Referring to the case of the Metro Line 1, the construction began quickly after the planning. Hence,
the project can be smoothly implemented with a political decision.
The construction of the 4th Bridge can be a risk to prevent the project implementation. The
construction of bridges crossing the Panama Canal is under control of ACP and not SMP. The
construction of the 4th Bridge is a key for the project. SMP is considering an option to pass the canal
with a tunnel, however, it is not realistic due to its high cost and land acquisition issues.
It is difficult to schedule the yen loan before the implementation schedule of the 4th Bridge is
confirmed.
(8) Location Map for the Study Area
Figure 2 Project Location Map
Source: Prepared by the Study Team (Background: Atlas Geográfico Escolar de la Repúlica de Panamá, 2009)