RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EVERGLADES RESTORATION
UNDER A FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIO
SPONSORED BY UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, FLORIDA SEA GRANT AND THE CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIVERSITY April 28 & 29, 2014 Florida Atlantic University  Boca Raton, Florida FINAL REPORT
2 Contents
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3 General Consensus .................................................................................................................................... 3 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Meeting Structure and Process ..................................................................................................................... 6 Discussions and Products Resulting from Working Groups .......................................................................... 7 Water Management Response to Hydrology and Sea Level Rise ............................................................. 7 Managing water quality and quantity in the Northern Everglades .......................................................... 9 Managing the Everglades by Influencing Biogeochemical processes ..................................................... 10 Shifts and Challenges to Vegetative Communities ................................................................................. 11 Managing Wildlife for Sustainability in a Changing Climate ................................................................... 14 Management framework for landscape systems ................................................................................... 16 Management considerations for coastal systems .................................................................................. 18 Conclusions and Discussion ........................................................................................................................ 19 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Recommended Management Strategies ................................................................................................ 20 Information Gaps .................................................................................................................................... 20 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Notes from Conveners ............................................................................................................................ 22 Discussion................................................................................................................................................ 22 Resources ................................................................................................................................................ 24 3 RecommendationsforEvergladesRestorationUnderaFutureClimateScenario:
TechnicalMeeting28‐29April2014
ExecutiveSummary
Recommendations for Everglades Restoration under a Future Climate Change Scenario convened
eighty‐four participants from academia, local, state and federal agencies, as well as public and
private organizations. During the two‐day technical meeting, seven interdisciplinary groups of
experts addressed the question: How can we effectively enhance restoration efforts throughout the
Evergladeswatershedthroughanadaptivemanagementprocessthatincorporatescurrentscientific
knowledge of climate‐related impacts? The teams recommended actions to address current and
futurepotentialimpactssuchasincreasedtemperature,changesinevapotranspirationandrainfall
parametersforrestorationefforts.Thesteeringcommitteeaskedthegroupstofocuson‘noregrets
strategies,’ defined as strategies which remain cost‐effective under a range of future climate
scenariosandtakeintoconsiderationotherpolicyobjectives.Theteamsalsoidentifiedinformation
gapsandprioritizedfutureresearchneeds.
Theprogramanddiscussionsweredividedamongsevenworkinggroups:
1. WaterManagementResponsetoHydrologyandSeaLevelRise
2. ManagingWaterQualityandQuantityintheNorthernEverglades
3. ManagingtheEvergladesbyInfluencingBiogeochemicalProcesses
4. ShiftsandChallengestoVegetativeCommunities
5. ManagingWildlifeforSustainabilityinaChangingClimate
6. ManagementFrameworkforLandscapeSystems
7. ManagementConsiderationsforCoastalSystems
GeneralConsensus
To successfully manage restoration projects in the Everglades, the impact of current and future
predictedchanges(intemperatureandevaporation,rainfallandrainfallintensity,andsealevelrise
withsaltwaterintrusion)mustbetakenintoaccount.Theoverallconceptualknowledgethathas
been collected on current and future impacts should now be augmented with specific data.
Monitoringthesechangesisapriority.
Thegroupsemphasizedandconcludedthat:
 While Everglades restoration focuses on the natural environment, the growing and changing
human environment, both urban and rural, is closely interlinked, especially in the context of
watersupplyandwatermanagement;
 Water storage will become even more critical in the future and the potential for increased
capacityshouldbeexamined;
4 







While water storage is important, water conservation in agriculture and in urban
environmentsisavitalmedium‐andlong‐termobjective;
Restoring water flow through the system, which is the critical goal of restoration in the
Everglades,isevenmoreimportantinthecontextofclimatechange;
Increasedwaterflowcanreducetheimpactofsaltwaterintrusion,andincreasethedegreeof
peatformation,alsoreducingsaltwaterintrusion;
MaintainingandincreasingpeatformationisavitalcomponentofahealthyEvergladessystem
andshouldbegivenpriorityinallmanagementinitiatives;
Appropriate adaptation efforts and areas most vulnerable to the impacts of changing
conditionsinbothnaturalandurbanareasneedtobeidentified;
Informed decision‐making demands detailed data on potential changes in the amount,
distributionandintensityofprecipitationunderfutureclimatescenarios;
The current cooperation on organizational issues between implementing agencies (as
exemplifiedbythemakeupofthemeeting)isevident,butcommunicationgapswereidentified,
includingbetweencountiesandstateandfederalagencies;and
Theactivepresenceofmanagersfromseveralkeyagencieshighlighted theneedforongoing
communicationwithandeducationforthepublic,watermanagersandotherdecisionmakers.
RECOMMENDEDMANAGEMENTSTRATEGIES
Despite some uncertainties of magnitude and timing, based on the conclusions above, we
recommend a number of management strategies that can safely be implemented as ‘no‐regrets
measures.’
 ConductavulnerabilityanalysisofSouthernFloridaandtheEvergladessimilartotheUSArmy
CorpsofEngineers’studyfortheareasthatwouldbemostimpactedbythenextSuperStorm
Sandy.
 Improve our modeling of rainfall and evapotranspiration under future climate scenarios and
thepotentialimpactonthelocalhydrologicalcycleandthuswatersupplyandmanagement.
 ReviewandrevisewatermanagementschedulesandMFLs(minimumflowsandlevels).
 EncourageFDEPandlocalgovernmentstoengageinlandacquisitiontoconnectcorridorsfor
migrationusingFWC'sexistingstateWildlifeActionPlanandLandConservationCooperatives
(LCC)Work.
 Improvecommunicationgaps,includingbetweencountiesandstateandfederalagencies.
 Continue to involve managers from key agencies to maintain communication with and
educationforthepublic,watermanagersandotherdecisionmakers.
 IncorporateopportunitiestoincreasewaterstorageinexistingandfutureEvergladesprojects.
Background
Nick Aumen of USGS welcomed participants and proposed the aforementioned challenge of: How
can we effectively enhance restoration efforts throughout the Everglades watershed through an
adaptive management process that incorporates current scientific knowledge of climate‐related
5 impacts? He outlined the meeting goal of defining recommendations for the attention of regional
managersanddecisionmakers,basedoncurrentscienceinthesevenbroadtopicareas.
LeonardBerry,ofFloridaAtlanticUniversity’sCenterforEnvironmentalStudies,summarizedthe
preceding technical meetings, summits, workshops and webinars conducted between February
2010andJanuary2014thatformedthefoundationandinspirationforthistechnicalmeeting.He
explainedthatduringthetwomostrecentmeetingsofmanagersandscientists,aplanofactionwas
highlightedfortheAprilmeeting:
1.Definethekeyissues,
2.Understandourpresentdegreeofknowledge,
3.Recommendadaptivestrategies,
4.Designplanstoaddressissues,and
5.Identifymajorknowledgegaps.
Jayantha Obeysekera, of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), presented a
summary of background and current scenarios and predictions noting several recent advances
including:
 Climatescenariosimulationsrunforrecentworkshops,
 FifthAssessmentReport(AR5)oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),
 NationalClimateAssessmentReport(NCA),
 Updatedsealevelriseprojections(NOAA,NCA,IPCC),and,
 A SFWMD initiative to develop robust decision making under deep uncertainty (workshop
heldSeptember2014).
Dr.Obeysekeranotedthatthedynamic‘non‐stationary’natureofthesystemwasnowrecognized
andSFWMDwasseekingactionablesciencebasedonmoredynamicmodels.Henotedtheseveral
different kinds of uncertainty involved ‐ the natural variability of the system, the uncertainty
associated with model spread and uncertainty arising from different scenario assumptions. He
proposedthefollowingcurrentboundaryassumptionstoframediscussionatthismeeting:
Globalprediction
Statistical
Dynamicdownscaling
Downscaling
MeantemperatureC0 10‐1.520
10 ‐ 20
1.8–2.10
Annualprecipitation
‐10%‐+10%
‐5%‐ +5%
‐3”‐+2”
SeaLevelRise
1.5feet
He also suggested the meeting should address adaptive water management techniques, including
scenarioplanning,learning‐basedapproachesandflexibleandlow‐regretsolutions.Thesecanhelp
createresiliencetouncertainhydrologicalchangesandimpactsduetoclimatechangeanddefined:
 No‐regret actions as those that remain cost‐effective under a range of future climate
scenariosandtakeintoconsiderationotherpolicyobjectives;
 Low‐regret actions are relatively low cost and provide relatively large benefits under
predictedfutureclimates;and,
 Win‐win actions contribute to adaptation while also having other social, economic and
environmentalpolicybenefits,includingthoseinrelationtomitigation.
6 SteveTraxleroftheU.S.FishandWildlifeServicepresentedanewscenarioanalysispreparedfor
theFloridaPeninsulaLandscapeConservationCooperative(FPLCC)combiningassumptionsabout
futureclimatechange,patternsofhumanpopulationgrowthanddifferentmechanismstoacquire
landforconservation.(http://peninsularfloridalcc.org/page/climate‐change‐scenarios)
Projectedforwardthrough2060,henotedhumanpopulationwaspredictedtogrowto31million
inhabitants,sealevelcouldriseanywherefrom3”toover40”andprecipitationpatternsaffecting
bothwildlifehabitatandhumanwelfarewereunpredictable.Usingtheseassumptions,FPLLChad
developedscenarioswithiterativestakeholderandtechnicalinputs,baseduponCriticalLandsand
WatersIdentificationProject(CLIP)andMITmodelstogeneratelandusepredictionsforFlorida.
(http://myfwc.com/media/1770248/consideringclimatechange‐wildlifeactionplan.pdf)
Within these different assumption polygons, the outputs varied from a worst case of almost
completelyurbanizedFloridawithisolatedsmallnaturalrefugiatoabestcaseofhumanpopulation
distribution, integrated with connected corridors and viable natural habitat resilient to climate
change. These models can be viewed on‐line www.jem.gov/Modeling at scales ranging from
statewidetolocal.
MeetingStructureandProcess
The participants were divided among the seven previously listed topic areas and charged to
producethreeconcretedeliverablesbytheendofthemeeting:
1. Aclearobjectivepertainingtothetopic.
2. Aseriesof‘no‐regrets’recommendationsformanagerstoconsider
3. Crucialdatagapswithinthattopicnecessarytoadvancetherecommendedactions.
Theprogramwasdividedintothreebroadsegmentsfollowingthefirstplenarysession:
 A breakout session then a second plenary session to develop one objective for each topic
(i.e.WHATshouldbedoneasapriorityforeachtopic)
 A breakout session then a third plenary session on recommended action to achieve the
objective(i.e.HOWshouldtheobjectiveberealized)
 A breakout session then a fourth plenary session to fine tune the objective and
recommendedactions,identifyinformationgapsandcoordinateamongdifferenttopicsand
breakoutgroups.
Ateachstage,groupsdevelopedtheirideasinbreak‐outsessionsandthencamebacktogetherin
plenarytoreporttoeachother,discussandcoordinatetheirideas.Groupswerechargedtoprepare
and present their products in the meeting for discussion at plenary sessions, which were an
opportunitytocoordinateandharmonizetheproductsfromdifferentgroups.Eachgrouphadbeen
assignedaleaderandgraduatestudentrecordersandgroupshadassembledandcirculatedcurrent
papersandbackgroundresourcesinthemonthpriortothemeeting.
www.ces.fau.edu/climate_change/everglades‐recommendations‐2014/resources.php
7 DiscussionsandProductsResultingfromWorkingGroups
WaterManagementResponsetoHydrologyandSeaLevelRise
InthisworkgroupledbyGlennLandersandJayanthaObeysekera,13participantsaddressedwater
managementresponsetotwoprimaryareasofanticipatedfuturechanges:(a)hydrologyand(b)
sealevelrise‐‐thetwomajorconsiderationsindevelopingadaptationstrategiesforboththebuilt
andnaturalenvironmentsinSouthFlorida.
Objective
IntegrateandsynchronizewatermanagementsolutionsintheEvergladesanddevelopedareasin
SouthFloridainthefaceofclimatechangeandsealevelriseinorderto
 Definelongandshort‐termwatermanagementrisktourbanandnaturalsystems
 Informprivateandpublicsectorinvestmentdecisions
 Provide and exchange tools, information and recommendations to other resource
sectors(e.g.Transportation,Energy,andAgriculture)
Recommendations
1. REGIONALASSESSMENT:Developaregionalassessmentthatintegratesnaturalsystemand
builtenvironmentexposuretoabroadrangeofsealevelriseandclimatescenarios.
2. NEARTERM:
a. Hold regional conversations that address rainfall tools needed, saltwater intrusion
modeling,scopeandactiontoinitiateregionalassessment.Inadditiontherewould
needtobeparticipationinpolicymeetings
b. Develop processes and mechanisms to address current vulnerabilities by utilizing
flexibilities w/in current water management operations to maintain or improve
ecologicalfunctions,watersupplyandfloodprotection
c. Performpre‐eventscreeninglevelanalysistoframeposteventresponsediscussions
The group generated a useful analogy of the Everglades
management system as a watch‐like mechanical construct in
whichmanyof the gearsandwheels arenotcurrentlyincontact
andoperateindependently.Theysuggestedthatintegratingthese
components would cause them to alter their relative rates of
motionandoperatemoreharmoniouslytogether.
Datagaps&uncertainties
 Accuracy and availability of the regional climate projections at scales of interest to
EvergladesRestoration(e.g.2‐milex2‐mile;daily).
 Projectionsofmeansealevelandextremes
 Changesinextremesincludingrainfallandtropicalstorms/hurricanes
 Feasibilityofimplementingchangestorestorationplans
8 Background&Discussion
Changestohydrologymaybeduetoavarietyoffactorsincludingmodificationstorainfallpatterns
(bothaveragesandextremes)aswellasincreasesinevapotranspirationalteringthewaterbudget
intheEvergladessystem.Restorationplanningtodatehasusedthehistoricalperiodfrom1965
onwardsasthebasisforthedevelopmentofoptionsforrestoringhydropatternsintheEverglades
andbalancingthosewiththeneedsofthebuiltenvironment.Previousinvestigationshaveuseda
scenario‐basedapproachforclimatechangeandtheseneedtobeimprovedusingthelatest
projectionsfortheregionalclimateinSouthFlorida.
Withreferencetosealevelrise,recordsfromtheKeyWest,MiamiBeachandothertidestation
locationsaroundSouthFloridawithroughly40yearsormoreofcontinuousrecordindicatelocal
historicratesofrelativesealevelrisevaryingfrom2.20to2.90mm/year(8.7to11.4inches/100
years).Becauseofongoingglobalclimatechange,therateofrelativesealevelriseinSouthFlorida
isanticipatedtoacceleratesignificantlyby2100andcontinueathigherrateswellbeyond2100.
Conclusions
Inviewofclimatechange,thevalidityoftheapproachtousehistoricalperiodneedstobe
investigatedconsideringfuturepotentialchangesinrainfall,evapotranspiration,tributaryinflows
andsealevels.Previousinvestigationshaveusedascenario‐basedapproachforclimatechangeand
thesescenariosneedtobeimprovedusingthelatestprojectionsfortheregionalclimateinSouth
Florida.
Thefuturetimingandmagnitudeofchangesintherateofsealevelriseisuncertainandthe
NationalResearchCouncilhasrecommendedconsiderationofmultiplescenariosrepresentinga
rangeofpotentialfutureconditions..
Ahigh‐levelreviewofthepreviousprojectionsofregionalclimateandsealevelriseinformation
alongwiththelatestinformationthatwillbecomeavailableinthenearfutureisneeded.
Discussionapproach:
Discussioninthisgroupstartedwiththeneedtodefinethespatialscaleofimpactsandresponses
andthecentralimportanceofCERPasanexistingmechanismforregionalmanagement.However,
CERPdoesnotcurrentlyintegrateclimatechangeeffects.Anactionabletimescaleoflikelyimpacts
andnecessaryresponseswouldallowmanagerstorespondfirsttowhatoccursfirst.Thecostof
anyactionvs.inactionshouldbebalancedwiththerisksinvolved.Numerousagenciesandentities
areworkingondifferentpartsoftheuncertaintiesbutneedtobebetterintegrated.Thepersistent
underinvestmentinwatermanagement(e.g.,comparedtodevelopmentandtransportation
investments)constrainscurrentaction.Regionalvulnerabilityanalysis,consideringcombinedrisks
offlooding,stormsurge,risingsealevelandprecipitationchangestourbancenterswouldhelp
informmanagersandprioritizewatermanagementandEvergladesrestoration.Thegroupfocused
ondefiningbarrierstoeffectivecoordinationandEvergladesmanagementandthebestwayto
adaptexistinginformationandcapacity.Effectivechangetoregulatoryandoperational
frameworkswillrequirecommunicationoftheriskstostakeholders,particularlytheinsurance
sector.Thegroupidentifiedabasicneedforintegrationandcommunicationamongnumerous
agencyandgovernmentplayersandeffectivecommunicationoftheavailablescience.
9 ManagingwaterqualityandquantityintheNorthernEverglades
TheNorthernEvergladesgroupconsistedof12participantsdirectedbyKarlHavens.(Attachment
2)TheEvergladeswatershedproperrequiresanenhancedinputoflow‐nutrientwater.Currently,a
largequantityofwaterenterstheregionalecosysteminthewatershednorthofLakeOkeechobee,
becomespollutedwithphosphorusandnitrogen,andrunsoffquicklyintoLakeOkeechobeewhere
muchofitisdischargedtotheoceanviatheCaloosahatcheeandSt.Lucieestuariesaftermajor
stormevents.Thechallengeistoidentifysolutionsthatcapturewaterafterpeakrainfall,holdas
muchofthewateraspossibleforuseduringtimesofdrought,andcleannutrientsfromthewater
beforeitisdeliveredtotheEverglades.
ThegroupfocusedonwatermanagementintoandfromLakeOkeechobeeandbaseditsdiscussion
onanassumptionofahotter,warmer,drierfutureorhotterwarmerwiththesameamountof
rainfallwhichwouldresultinraredischargetoestuariesfromLakeOkeechobee.Thelakelevels
willlikelybelowanddeliveryofwaterfromthelakesouthwardstotheEvergladeswillbea
challengeduetotopographic,structuralandpolicyconstraints.
Objective
Manage water in the Northern Everglades, providing adequate water in the lake to meet
downstreamneedswhenrequired,withoutcausingirreversibleharmtothelakeecosystem.
Recommendations(lowesttohighestregrets)
1. Hydrologicmodellingwithnewclimatechangeassumptionstoexaminestorageoptions.
EvaluatingASRfeasibility.Nutrient/flowrates.
2. Reduceconsumptivewateruseinallsectors
3. ReviewandrevisewaterregulationschedulesandMFLstoallowadditionalwaterflowsouth
4. BuilddeepstorageinLakeOkeechobeeandsouthofthelake
5. Re‐plumbthelaketoallowwaterreleasesouthwardatverylowstage
Datagaps&uncertainties
 Needbetterinformationregardingtemporaldistributionofrainfallanddrought
 Needcostcomparisonofalternatives
 Need to know benefits per unit cost in terms of both peak flow attenuation and water
storagefordroughts
 NeedtounderstandimpactswithinLakeOkeechobee
 Largestareaofuncertaintyinvolvesthesubmergedvegetationzoneofthelake,whichlikely
willexperiencegreatvariationsindepth,sedimenttypeandwaterquality
 Anotherareaofuncertaintyexistsregardingpotentialforlittoralzonetorecoveraftervery
prolongeddroughtsandpresumablyexpansionofwoodyvegetation,exoticsandlarge‐scale
fires
Background&Discussion
Someofthepossibleoptions:



Dispersedstorage(minimallyrestrictive,leastregrets)
Regionalstormwatertreatmentareas(expensive)
RevisedregulationscheduleforLakeOkeechobee(LO)
(canbedoneassoonasleveeisrepaired,risksLOlittoralzone)
10 


Strengthenedlevee(wouldrequireveryexpensiveproject,presumptionthatLOlittoral
zoneisgone)
RegionalreservoirsandStormwaterTreatmentAreas(STAs)(expensive)
AquiferStorageandRecovery(ASR)(mostexpensiveanduncertain)
Indiscussion,thisgroupgrappledwiththeuncertaintyassociatedwithfutureprecipitation.Many
modelsandresearchersindicatethatlessprecipitationoverall,butpossiblymoreintenseepisodes
areexpectedinSouthFlorida.However,recentrunsofmultiplemodelscouldnotrobustly
differentiatebetweenthosewithlessrainandthosewithmore.Theeffectofevapotranspiration,
whichmayalsovarywithchangesintemperatureandvegetation,furtherconfoundsthese
predictions.Thegroupconductedmuchofitsdiscussionontheassumptionofadrierfuture,but
adjusteditsno‐regretsrecommendationssothattheywouldremainusefulunderanyfuture
scenario.Thegroupconsideredincreasedstoragetobeonesuchoption,althoughtheeffectiveness
andcostofdifferentoptions(surfacevs.belowground/AquiferStorageandRecovery)were
intenselydebated.ThegroupconsideredthatrestorationofsouthwardflowfromLakeOkeechobee
wouldbebeneficialunderallscenarios.Numerouspossibilitieswerediscussedincludingrestoring
theoriginalcustardappleforestsouthofthelake,ASRandtheNetherlandsconceptofallowing
croplandstofloodandpayingforlossesratherthanexpensiveinfrastructurechanges.Thetradeoff
betweenevapotranspirativelosses,flooding,deepandshallowstorageandgeographiclocation
northandsouthofthelakewereconsidered.
ManagingtheEvergladesbyInfluencingBiogeochemicalprocesses
TheBiogeochemical(Soils)groupwasorganizedandmanagedbyDaveRudnickandSueNewman
assistedby16participants(seeAttachment2).TheresponseoftheGreaterEvergladestoclimate
changeandsealevelriseisstronglyinfluencedbybiogeochemicalprocesses,whicharegenerally
mostassociatedwithmicrobialandplantproductionandrespiration,organicmatter
decomposition(withmanyoxidation‐reductionreactions),andnutrientcyclinginwaterandsoils.
Greatattentionhasbeengiventotheeffectsofnutrientenrichment(particularly,phosphorus)on
theEvergladesandhydrologicchangesassociatedwithclimatechangewillalterfuturenutrient
inputstoandcyclingandtransportofnutrientswithintheEverglades.Anothermajorissueishow
soilelevationdynamicsinbothfreshwaterandsalinewetlandsrespondtochanginghydrologic
patterns,nutrientavailability,andsaltwaterintrusion–allfactorsinfluencedbothbyclimate
change(withsealevelrise)andEvergladesrestoration.Increasesordecreasesinmarshsoil
elevationmaybetheprimedeterminantofthespatialextentofsaltwaterintrusionandsealevel
riseeffectsintheEverglades.Ofparticularconcern,saltwaterintrusionmaycausepeatcollapsein
thebrackish‐freshwaterEcotoneoftheEverglades.
Objective
MaximizesoilcarbonsequestrationtomaintainandrestoreEvergladeshabitatdiversity
Recommendations
1. Utilizeexistingoperationalflexibilitytomakesoilswetternow.
Increasestages,hydroperiod,andconveyancethroughtheEPA
2. Increasemagnitudeof1.
a. Increasewaterstorage
b. ExerciseUSSugarlandoption
c. ChangeMFL–eliminatesoildry‐out
d. Reviseschedulestoincreasewatersupplytotheenvironment
11 Datagaps&uncertainties
 Buildtoolforsoilvulnerabilitymappingandsystem‐wideimpactanalysis
 Analysisshouldinclude:Salinity,hydrologicandnutrienteffectsonsoilstability,accretion,
&resilience.
 Therelationshipbetweennutrientsandsoilaccretionrates,whichmayvaryamongregions
andsoils.
 Regardingcapillarity,whatwaterlevelreallymeansdrypeat,andthusfirerisk?
Background&Discussion
IndiscussionthegrouprecognizedthattheOligohalinezoneisamasterindicatorofthefunctioning
ofthewholesystem.Carbonsequestrationisthesameassoilbuildinganddependsoncomplex
red‐oxchemistryofwetanddrysediments.Majortopicsofdiscussionincluded:





NeedforsoilelevationgainandincreasedsequestrationofC,P,andpossiblyS&Hg.Main
task:keepitwet.
OligohalineEcotoneisbothhighlyvulnerableandhighlyimportantasabufferforeffectsof
sealevelrise,delayingsaltwaterintrusionandlandlosstoprovideamorestabletransition.
LossoftheEcotonewouldhavecatastrophiceffectsbothupstreamanddownstreamin
FloridaBay.
Trade‐offbetweenquantityandquality.Morestorageisano‐brainer,possiblyinEAA,
northWCA3A
Wearereallygoodat“admiringtheproblem.”Tohaveourinputmeansomethingto
decisionmakers,weneedtohavescience‐basedreasons.
Basedontheseconsiderations,thegroupidentifiedasuiteoffactorsthatwereamenableto
influence:FWFlow(Reservoirs),Distributionofwaterandwaterquality(notjustP),CEPP
Sequencing,Adaptive,Plantmanagement,Pulsemanagement,Changelanduse/wateruse,
Shoreenergybuffer,Coastalrecreation.
Fromtheseageneralstrategywasproposed:




Overcomewhateverisdelayingcurrentplans(CEPP,etc.)
AuthorizeandtakeactiononModWaters,Tamiami,CEPP;expedite
Whatcanweturnonnow?
Morestorage
Saltwaterintrusioncancontaminatetheaquifer,whichhasabigimpactonmunicipalaswellas
agriculturalfreshwatersupplies.Directingmorewatersouth,plusbettermanagementpractices
foragriculturaluseofwater,won’tstopsealevelrise,butwouldbetterprotectsoilandwater
suppliesfromsaltwaterintrusion.
ShiftsandChallengestoVegetativeCommunities
ThevegetationgroupwasledandmanagedbyJohnVolinandArnoldvanderValkwith11
participants(seeAttachment2).ThepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeintheEvergladescanbe
examinedatmultiplescales.Asforallwetlands,hydrologyisthemajordriverthatdeterminesthe
distributionandstructureofvariousthevegetationtypesintheEverglades.Thenumberof
12 dominantvegetationtypes(wetprairies,sawgrassflats,ridgesandsloughs,shrubs,andtree
islands)historicallyandcurrentlyfoundintheEvergladesisprimarilyafunctionofthemagnitude
ofinterannualwaterlevelfluctuations.Achangeof25to30cmininterannualwater‐level
fluctuationsisexpectedtochangethenumberofvegetationtypesinawetland,basedonstudiesof
otherwetlandtypes.Becausechangesofthismagnitudearepredictedthissuggeststhatclimate
changecouldhaveasignificantimpactonthenumberofvegetationtypesorzonesfoundinthe
Everglades.
Howwilltreeislands,ridgeandsloughareas,wetprairies,etc.fareifthemagnitudeofinterannual
waterlevelfluctuationsaresignificantlyaltered?Whicharemostvulnerabletoachangein
hydrology?Whatimplicationsdovariationsintherelativeabundanceofvariousvegetationtypes
haveforbirdsandanimalsintheEverglades?Basedoncontemporaryandhistoricaldata,what
kindsofchangeswithintheEvergladesareexpectedtooccurinvariousareas(ENP,WCAs)because
ofachangeinthemagnitudeofinterannualwaterlevelsduetoclimate?Aresomeareasmore
vulnerablethanothers?
Objective
Restorethehistoricmagnitudeofinterannualwaterlevelfluctuationsincorporatingthechallenges
ofclimatechange,urbanizationandwaterquality.
Recommendations
NoRegrets:
1. Reduceurbanandagriculturalwaterconsumption
2. Storewaterinsoils/peats(higherlows)
3. Useset‐asideprogramstocreateprivatewaterstorageareas(wetlands)
4. Identify areas that might be adversely affected by restoring historic water‐level
fluctuations.
5. Maintain agricultural subsidies to prevent the Everglades Agricultural Area from
becomingdeveloped.
LowRegrets
1. Createmorewaterstoragereservoirs.Thiswouldalsobenefitsoutherncities.
2. IncreasenumberofSTAstoimprovewaterqualityandassociatedstoragereservoirs.
3. Reconsider “The River of Grass” to increase water delivery to the Everglades and to
improvewaterquality.
4. IncreasetheamountofwatertotheEvergladesduringwetyears.(higherhighs).
Datagaps&uncertainties
 How reliable is our information about the magnitude of historic (i.e., predrainage) annual
andinterannualwaterlevelfluctuationsintheEverglades?
 Howmuchdoweknowabouttherelativeabundanceanddistributionofvariousvegetation
typespriortodrainage?Howreliableisthisinformation?
13 






Howlongdoesittakeforvegetationtypestobelostorreplacedbyothertypes?Aresome
vegetation types more vulnerable to changes in hydrology than others? Is there a
vegetationtypethatshouldbemonitoredasanindicatorofclimatechange?
Howwillchangesinmagnitudeofinterannualwaterlevelfluctuationsaffectfirefrequency
andintensity?
How will future management of water in the Everglades affect the hydrology of the
Everglades?
Because of the introduction of invasive species, will new vegetation types develop that
mightreplacesomeoftheexistingtypes?
Evenifthemagnitudeoftheinterannualwaterlevelfluctuationsisunaffected,willtherebe
ashiftinthenumberofyearsofhigh,normalandlowwaterduringaninterannualcycle?
Howcouldthisaffectthedistributionandrelativeabundanceofvariousvegetationtypes?
What impacts will increased carbon dioxide have on primary production? Peat
accumulation?
Whatimpactswillchangesintemperaturehaveonthecompositionofplantcommunitiesas
wellasonlitterproductionanddecompositionrates?
Background&Discussion
The objective of this group was to restore the magnitude of the historic interannual water‐level
fluctuations.Therangeissloughsurfaceupto1.5to1.6meters.Therefore,waterlevelswouldbe
maintainedsothatsoilsalwaysremainwet.Ouroneandonlyrecommendationisincreasedwater
storage,bothsurfaceandgroundwater.WhatweareproposingmovesbeyondCERPandincludes
even more storage in areas north of Lake Okeechobee, within Lake Okeechobee and within the
EvergladesAgriculturalArea(EAA),theareathatisthebestchoiceforthemoststorage.Thereare
two major data gaps for achieving this recommendation. The first is planning for distributive
storage (hydrological, social, economic, political, etc.). One method to accomplish this is through
newpublic‐privatepartnerships(privateSTAs).Thesecondisdevelopinganimpactassessmentfor
urbanenvironment(rechargingaquifer,integrateflooding,etc.).Keepingthesoilswetduringwet
yearsisimportantbutalsoachallengeforlandmanagerswhoarechargedwithfloodprevention.
The major topics of discussion turned repeatedly to how to manage water levels with a higher
degree of interannual variability. The group discussed the effects of such action, and current
constraints,consideredfrombothhard(infrastructureandplumbing)andsoft(communicationand
politics)perspectives.Thetradeoffbetweenavailablewaterquantityanddistributionofflowand
water quality (nutrient loads) was debated with some preference toward allowing decreased
quality,ifthiswouldensureincreasedquantity.However,seriouslegalconstraintsandecosystem
response uncertainties were recognized. There is a potential to have novel ecosystems replacing
the current system with similar hydrology and nutrient cycling but with important differences.
Decreasingtheinterannualdriesthesystemandproducesmoresawgrassandinvasionofexotics.
Impacts of increased nutrients (specifically P) on vegetation and periphyton is uncertain and a
concern. Current management strategies focus on engineering, flood control and water supply
issues on an annual basis and are unresponsive to ecosystem or long term changes. A paradigm
shiftisnecessaryforplantcommunitiestosurvivethroughachangingclimate.
Thegroupconsideredasuiteofpotentialactionsagainsttheno‐regretscriterion.
1. Storage
A. Restoring Lake Okeechobee water quality levels – discussion of property that would
havebeenalargeareabetweenLakeOandEAAwherewatercouldbestored.Howis
14 this storage different from what we have asked for before? What does this storage do
forinterannuallevels?
Answer:morewaterthanwhatwasprojectedinthe90’sandindryyearsyoukeepit
moist.
B. How
about
storage
POST‐STA
or
between
the
STA’s.
Weneedmorestoragebecauseitmaybedrierinthefuture(duetoclimatechange).
C. Storageisgoodwhetherwetordry.
2. Change the way water is managed. Currently, it is done seasonally. Chris thinks that water
managersareconsideringthisinterannualfluctuationbutareconstrainedbyvariousfactors.
ThegrouphadanextendeddiscussionofthecurrentandpotentialfunctionoftheEverglades
AgriculturalAreaandprivatelandsaspotentialwaterstorageareas.Incentivizationforprivate
storage,maintainingagriculturalsubsidiestoensurethelandisnotconvertedtourbanuseand
changingcurrentwatermanagementassumptionsandparadigmswererecommended.
ManagingWildlifeforSustainabilityinaChangingClimate
ThewildlifegroupwasorganizedandleadbyJoelTrexlerandKristenHart,assistedduring
discussionsbyLauraBrandtandthreegroupmembers(Attachment2).Theirworkfocusedon
sustainabilityofecosystemfunction,primarilyrelatedtofood‐webecology,aswellasthreatened
andendangeredspeciesandimpactsofinvasivespeciesunderarangeofpossibleEverglades
futuresona30‐50yeartimeframe.Ourprimaryrecommendationtodatehasbeenthatcurrent
restorationplansarerenderedmorecriticalforwildlifeunderthemostlikelyscenariosofclimate
changeandourworkwillcontinuetoclarifyandjustifythisrecommendation.Todothis,wewill
exploretheimpactsoffuturemanagementofwaterwithvaryingdegreesofcompliancewithwater
qualitystandards;issuesofnutrientsupplyandxenobioticswillbeconsidered.Wewelcome
additionalclimatescenarios,ifanyareavailable,inordertobroadenthescopeofinferenceofour
recommendations.Finally,wewillcontinuetoworkondocumentationofmodeluncertainties.The
greatestuncertaintylieswithclimatescenariosandweproposetoworkcloselywiththe
EvergladesLandscapegrouptoexplorehowtheseuncertaintiesaremagnifiedastheyare
incorporatedintoecologicalmodelsofwildliferesponse.
Objective
Plan for and adapt to shifts in location of habitats and function of the ecosystem necessary to
maintainsustainablepopulationsofanimalspeciessocietyvaluesunderfutureconditions.
Recommendations
A. SupportfullimplementationofCEPP
&implementationofrestorationstrategiesandotherassumptionsofCEPP
B. Usingexistinginformation,countiesshouldacquirecriticalcoastal,refugia,andcorridor
habitatsincoordinationwithDEP
C. USFWSincoordinationwithFWCidentifypriorityspeciesfordevelopmentofMasterPlan
(ESAExemption)andcorridoranalysis‐‐starttheconversationandprocessnow
15 Datagaps&uncertainties
 Needclear,explicitprioritiesforwhatspecieswewanttofocuson
(tryingtosaveeverythingsavesnothing,useofumbrella/surrogate/indicatedRSPs)
 Needtodefinetimehorizon
 Needtoconsiderlocationofpeople
 Waterquantity/quality/xenobiotics
 Whoarethedecisionmakers?Atwhatlevelaredecisionsmade?
Background&Discussion
Operatingassumptions
 Discussiontofocusstrictlyonwildlife,asothergroupisdoingplants
 Wildlifeareapartofecosystemfunction
 Wemustbuildoffpastwork‐‐forexample,definingwhatsocietyvalues
 Continueexistinghabitatmanagement
 UPDATE: Most of the group did not have appreciation for the narrow scope of the God
Squad,whichistoapproveexemptionstotheESA,whichisessentiallydeclaringjeopardy.
This may be an outcome but we're not recommending that we seek jeopardy.
The discussion centered around having flexibility to act even when endangered species
protectedunderESAareimpacted.
 Wewanttodevelopahabitatmanagementplanthatallowsustobeproactiveinthefaceof
ESAconstraints.
WildlifeRecommendations
 FDEPandLocalgovernmentsengageinlandacquisition
 UseFWC'sexistingstateWildlifeActionPlan,LCCWork
 Acquirerefugiaandcorridorhabitats(coastal&inland)
tomaximizebenefitstopriorityspecies*
*Priorityspeciesincludeimperiled,umbrella,surrogate,etc.Theserepresentotherspeciesand
functionofthelandscapearoundwhichwefocusmanagementactions.Assumptionisotherspecies
benefit.
TopActionItems
Additionalrecommendedactionsprioritized(1‐5year)
1. Publiceducation
2. Identifycorridors
Scenarioevaluation
3. Pickpriorityspecies.
4. Purchaseallundercoastalproperty
5. ConstructionofmoreSTAs
FWS&FWCDevelopMasterPlan
1. Identifypriorityspeciesformanagementdecisions
2. Forothervulnerablespecies(Threatened&Endangered),identifycaptivebreeding,habitat
enhancement,orrelocationoptions
3. Seek approval of plan to endorse actions and consequences to selected Endangered and
16 Threatened Species. The discussion centered on having flexibility to act even when
endangered species protected under ESA are impacted. We want to develop a habitat
managementplanthatallowsustobeproactiveinthefaceofESAconstraints.
Managementframeworkforlandscapesystems
TheLandscapegroupwithelevenparticipants(seeAttachment2)wasorganizedandledbyMartha
Nungesser(SFMWD)andLeonardPearlstine(NPS).
LandscapescaleanalysisoftheEvergladesrequiressynthesisofthemajorphysicalandbiological
processesthatgovernthesewetlands.Aschangesinclimateandsealevelaltertheseprocesses,we
anticipatepeatlossintheridgeandsloughlandscapes,alterationsintreeislandandmarlprairie
communitystructure,saltwaterincursioninlandincoastalareas,lossofspeciessynchronization,
andadaptivechangesinplantandanimalcommunities,includingnovelcommunitiesincorporating
non‐indigenousandopportunisticspecies.Scientistscananticipateandmonitortheseshiftsas
theyoccurthroughfocuseddatacollection,integratedmodels,remoteimagery,andintimate
knowledgeoftheEvergladeswetlands.Scientificcollaborationwithdecision‐makersmayhelp
promoteecosystemresilience,transitionstrategies,andchangesinecosystemsservicesandwater
supplyprovidedbytheEverglades.
Objective
Toidentifypossibleecosystemtrajectoriesunderdifferentclimatechangescenariostofacilitatea
healthy,shiftingsystemthatincludesspatialconnectivitytoenhancebufferingcapacity.
Recommendations
The group’s final recommendation considered 25 varied activities focusing on landscape level
analyses, the need for predictive modelling and the role of landscape modelling in recording and
predicting future system responses. They proposed three general areas for ‘no regrets’ action
under the heading of ‘Preparing for Change’ and falling generally into the area of mapping,
modellingandinformingmanagersoftheseresults.
1. Map Landscapes to protect peat performance and evolution (identify areas that are
changing)
a. Mapovermultipletimeperiods
b. Identifyhydrologicallyrelatedchangesandcauses
c. Conductabaselineinventoryoflandscapes
2. Akeydatagapisthelackofspatiallyexplicitwaterbudgetsandprojectionsofstageinall
environments.Fillknowledgegapstoenablebetterhydrologicalforecasting.
a. Determineecosystemtrajectories
b. Identifylandscapeevolution
c. Determinevolume‐depthrelationshipstocalculatestage‐storagevolumes
d. Conductriskvulnerabilityassessments
e. Determineresiliencebycommunitytypes
3. Developdecisionmakingtools
17 a. Decisiontrees
b. Models
c. Visualizations‐EDENlike
Datagaps&uncertainties
Seeabove
Background&Discussion
Discussiontopicsincluded:
 Thespatialcontinuityofthewholesystem.
 Thedynamicnatureofongoingandfuturechanges.
 The need to manage water to buffer climate changes and consider extreme as well as
averagelevels.
 Availableandneededdatatopredictablymodelthesystemandassesssystemvulnerability
andrisks.
Aninitiallistingofpossibleactionsincluded:
1. Prioritizefreshwaterecosystemsbysustainability
2. Increasestorage
a. No development of EAA, acquire to conserve for water storage and quality
management
b. Defineinputsforurbanstorage
i. Recycletoaquifer
ii. Mitigateflooding
c. Holdwaterathighlevel(hurricane)toreleaselater
3. Strategiestomitigateeffectsonurbanagriculturalandenvironmentalcomponents
4. Communicatetoallstakeholderswhytheseareneeded
In its second discussion session the group proposed that key actions would protect and preserve
peat and soil function. They proposed a peat performance evaluation, understanding that peat is
thecoreelementofcarboncyclinginthesystem.EDENprovidesavisualmethodforhydrological
forecasting.Thereisaneed,inspatiallyexplicittermsofarea,toinventoryandmaplandscapesof
different community/ecosystem types and their condition, health and connectivity to prioritize
areasforaction.USGSisgettingimagesandprocessingLandsatarchivesfromthe1980s.Sofar,
they’veprocessed300imagesofdifferentspatial‐fillingdatagapstoobtaincompleteinformation.
Scaleisimportantinthedetectionofshorttermchange‐‐e.g.vegetationencroachmentintosloughs
requiresmuchfinerscales.
RelationshipbetweenthevolumeofwateranddepthchangesisbeingdonebyUSGSusingpastdata
fromEDEN.Thegroupproposedashorttermtechnicalmeetingintegratingagroupofmappersand
landscaperstodiscussoverallstrategythatcouldinclude:
 Increasingflexibilityinoperationalchanges
 Adaptive management set of priorities: flood control/water supply; integration of water
controlplans;expandingoperationalflexibility;regulatoryflexibility
 Integrate estuarine models into existing freshwater models to accommodate the freshwater‐
saltwaterinterface
 Longtermgoals—integratethesaltwatersystemsandwatermanagementsystem
 Morestorageinthesystemwithinthepeatintegratinglake,riversandpeat
18 Managementconsiderationsforcoastalsystems
TheCoastalgroupwasledbyMargueriteKochandChrisKelblewith9participants(seeattachment
2).CoastalsystemsoftheGreaterEverglades,whichincludeextensiveestuariesandsaline
wetlands,areinfluencedbywatershedandcoastalmanagement,aswellasbysealevelriseand
climatechange.Previousworkshopsidentifiedknownsensitivitiesandhypothesizedresponsesof
estuarinebenthiccommunitiesandcoastalwetlands’soilsandplantcommunitiestothe
combinationoffreshwaterflowrestorationandsealevelriseandclimatechange.Sealevelrisemay
bethestrongestdriveroffuturechangesinthesecommunities.TheFloridaKeyscoralreefsystem
issensitivetolocalfisheriesmanagement,watershedmanagement,andclimatechange,butthe
strongestdrivercurrentlyimpactingthereefisincreasingtemperature.Thermalstressnotonly
directlyimpactscorals,butalsoinfluencesdiseasevulnerabilityandinteractswithwaterquality
conditionstoindirectlyinfluencecoralmortality.Formostofthecoastalsystem,managementof
fresh‐waterinputs(quantity,timing,distribution,andnutrientcontent)andfisheriesareprimary
toolsthatcanbeusedtomoderateandmitigatesealevelriseeffects.Thissessionseekstoprovide
specificrecommendationstoincreasetheeffectivenessofthismitigationandtheresilienceofthis
entirecoastalecosysteminthefaceofsealevelriseandclimatechange.
Objective
Spatially & temporally integrate water, land, infrastructure, and coastal marine management to
make natural & built systems more sustainable (natural trajectory) in the face of climate change
andsealevelrise
Recommendations
1. Manageupstreamwatertodeliversufficientfreshwaterattherightquality,quantity,timing
anddistributiontocoastalecosystems(getthewaterrightforcoastalecosystems)
2. Develop comprehensive regional/local governance and planning framework to implement
integratedecosystembasedmanagement
Utilize existing legislative authority, organizations and plans (e.g., National Ocean Policy;
CoastalandMarineSpatialPlanning;NationalFish,WildlifeandPlantsClimateAdaptation
Strategy)
3. AmendFLconstitutiontoexplicitlyconsiderclimatechangeinallpublicdecisionsincluding
feasibilityofstrategiccoastaladaptation
Datagaps&uncertainties
1. Need to restore water quality and hydrographic monitoring on SW shelf (ended in 2011)
andreinvigoratemonitoringinFLBay,FLKeysandBiscayneBay
a. Highresolutiondynamicmodelstoevaluateimpactsoflocalsealevelrise,climate
change, and upstream water management actions on critical coastal habitats,
particularlythemangrovecoastline.
b. Sediment accretion rates, subsidence, uplift and underlying geologic processes to
accuratelyprojectlocalsealevelrise
c. Robust approaches to integrate economics and other societal issues into coastal
planningunderclimatechange
2. Directeffectofclimateimpacts(temperature,rainfall,ET)oncoastalecosystems
3. Robustdecisionmakingtoolsthataddressuncertainty&vulnerabilityof bothhumanand
naturalcoastalsystems
19 4. Effective communication with local community and other stakeholders on restoration
effortsandimpactsofclimatechangeandsealevelrise(interactions)
Background&Discussion
Climatechangeandsea‐levelrise,habitatloss,pollution,andoverfishingarethemainthings
affectingcoastalsystemsworldwide.ItisimportanttonotethatEvergladesNationalPark(ENP)is
2/3marine.Themajorobjectiveofthisgroupisasfollows:Spatiallyandtemporallyintegrate
water,land,infrastructure,andcoastalmarinemanagementtomakenaturalandbuiltsystems
moresustainable(naturaltrajectory)inthefaceofclimatechangeandsea‐levelrise.Thegroup
agreesthattherearethreemajoractionsthatshouldbeimplementedtobetterprepareour
vulnerablecoastalsystems.First,thereisaneedmanageupstreamwaterinordertodeliver
sufficientfreshwaterattherightquality,quantity,timinganddistributiontocoastalecosystems.
Weneedtogetthewaterright,especiallyforcoastalecosystems.Second,thereisaneedtodevelop
comprehensiveregional/localgovernanceandplanningframeworktoimplementanintegrated
ecosystembasedmanagement.Wemustutilizeexistinglegislativeauthority,organizationsand
plans(e.g.,NationalOceanPolicy,CoastalandMarineSpatialPlanning,NationalFish,Wildlifeand
PlantsClimateAdaptationStrategy).Fourth,weshouldamendtheFLconstitutiontoexplicitly
considerclimatechangeinallpublicdecisionsincludingfeasibilityofstrategiccoastaladaptation.
However,toachieveourobjective,thefollowinginformationgapsneedtobeaddressed.Thereisa
highneedtorestorewaterqualityandhydrographicmonitoringonSWshelf(endedin2011)and
reinvigoratemonitoringinFLBay,FLKeysandBiscayneBay.
Highresolutiondynamicmodelsarealsoneededtoevaluatethepotentialimpactsoflocalsealevel
rise,climatechange,andupstreamwatermanagementactionsoncriticalcoastalhabitats,
particularlythemangrovecoastline.Additionally,sedimentaccretionrates,subsidence,upliftand
underlyinggeologicprocessesneedtobeunderstoodtoaccuratelyprojectlocalsealevelrise.
Anotherinformationgapisrobustapproachestointegrateeconomicsandothersocietalissuesinto
coastalplanningunderclimatechange.Wealsodonotunderstandthedirecteffectofclimate
impacts(temperature,rainfall,ET)oncoastalecosystems.Robustdecisionmakingtoolsthat
addressuncertainty&vulnerabilityofbothhumanandnaturalcoastalsystemswillalsohelpfillin
thegaps.Finally,effectivecommunicationwithlocalcommunityandotherstakeholderson
restorationeffortsandimpactsofclimatechangeandsealevelrise(interactions)isnecessary.
ConclusionsandDiscussion
Conclusions
To successfully manage restoration projects in the Everglades, the impact of current and future
predictedchanges(intemperatureandevaporation,rainfallandrainfallintensity,andsealevelrise
withsaltwaterintrusion)mustbetakenintoaccount.Theoverallconceptualknowledgethathas
been collected on current and future impacts should now be augmented with specific data.
Monitoringthesechangesisapriority.
Thegroupsemphasizedandconcludedthat:
 While Everglades restoration focuses on the natural environment, the growing and changing
human environment, both urban and rural, is closely interlinked, especially in the context of
watersupplyandwatermanagement;
20 
Water storage will become even more critical in the future and the potential for increased
capacityshouldbeexamined;
 While water storage is important, water conservation in agriculture and in urban
environmentsisavitalmedium‐andlong‐termobjective;
 Restoring water flow through the system, which is the critical goal of restoration in the
Everglades,isevenmoreimportantinthecontextofclimatechange;
 Increasedwaterflowcanreducetheimpactofsaltwaterintrusion,andincreasethedegreeof
peatformation,alsoreducingsaltwaterintrusion;
 MaintainingandincreasingpeatformationisavitalcomponentofahealthyEvergladessystem
andshouldbegivenpriorityinallmanagementinitiatives;
 Appropriate adaptation efforts and areas most vulnerable to the impacts of changing
conditionsinbothnaturalandurbanareasneedtobeidentified;
 Informed decision‐making demands detailed data on potential changes in the amount,
distributionandintensityofprecipitationunderfutureclimatescenarios;
 The current cooperation on organizational issues between implementing agencies (as
exemplifiedbythemakeupofthemeeting)isevident,butcommunicationgapswereidentified,
includingbetweencountiesandstateandfederalagencies;and
The active presence of managers from several key agencies highlighted the need for ongoing
communicationwithandeducationforthepublic,watermanagersandotherdecisionmakers.
RecommendedManagementStrategies
Despite some uncertainties of magnitude and timing, based on the conclusions above, we
recommend a number of management strategies that can safely be implemented as ‘no‐regrets
measures.’
•
Conduct a vulnerability analysis of Southern Florida and the Everglades similar to the US
ArmyCorpsofEngineers’studyfortheareasthatwouldbemostimpactedbythenextSuperStorm
Sandy.
•
Improve our modeling of rainfall and evapotranspiration under future climate scenarios
andthepotentialimpactonthelocalhydrologicalcycleandthuswatersupplyandmanagement.
•
ReviewandrevisewatermanagementschedulesandMFLs(minimumflowsandlevels).
•
EncourageFDEPandlocalgovernmentstoengageinlandacquisitiontoconnectcorridors
formigrationusingFWC'sexistingstateWildlifeActionPlanandLandConservationCooperatives
(LCC)Work.
•
Improvecommunicationgaps,includingbetweencountiesandstateandfederalagencies.
•
Continue to involve managers from key agencies to maintain communication with and
educationforthepublic,watermanagersandotherdecisionmakers.
•
Incorporate opportunities to increase water storage in existing and future Everglades
projects.
InformationGaps
Most groups incorporated their implied information gaps into their primary recommendations,
askingforfurtheranalysis,modellinganddatacollection.
Group
Informationgap
Hydrology
Vulnerabilityandriskparameters(implied)
N.Everglades
Regionalprecipitationscenarios(Implied)
21 
Biogeochemical



Vegetation
Wildlife





Landscape



Coastal



Soilvulnerabilitymapwithsystemwideimpactanalysisthatincludes
salinity,hydrologicandnutrienteffectsonsoilstability,accretionand
resilience
The relationship between nutrients and soil accretion rates:
theanswermaydifferamongregionsandsoils
Regarding capillarity, what water level really means dry peat, and
thusfirerisk?
Planning for distributive storage (hydrological, social, economic,
political,etc.).
Developinganimpactassessmentforurbanenvironment(recharging
aquifer,integrateflooding,etc.)
Evaluationscenariosofclimatechangeimpactsonwildlife
Analysis of corridors, vulnerable coastal lands and acquisition
potential
Priorityprocesstoidentifykeyspecies
Lackofspatiallyexplicitwaterbudgetsandprojectionsofstageinall
environments
Trajectoriesoflandscapesunderdifferenthydrologicconditions
Risk,vulnerabilityandresilienceanalysis
WaterqualityandhydrographicmonitoringonSWshelf(FloridaBay,
FloridaKeysandBiscayneBay)
Directeffectofclimatechangeoncoastalecosystems
Decisionmakingtoolsthataddressuncertaintyandvulnerability
Effective communication with local community and other
stakeholders
Methodology
The seven groups produced a total of 38 recommendations with considerable duplication and
overlap. Individual recommendations from the groups were compiled, grouped by similarity and
scoredbytheemphasisassignedtothatactionbyeachgroup(Highestpriorityrecommendations
=3,secondaryrecommendations=2,mentions=1).Majortopicswererankedbytotalnumericscore,
resultingin13broadthemes(Seeattachment3‐Excelsheet).
Theme
AssessmentandVulnerabilityanalysisincludingmapping
Morewaterstorage
Priority
score/group
emphasis
24
20
TOPTIER
22 IncreasedFlowthroughEvergladesandtocoast
Modellinghydrologyandprecipitation
Acquiring/conservinglandandcorridors
InteragencyandRegionalcoordination
ReviewandrevisewatermanagementschedulesandMFLs
17
13
12
11
SecondTier
11
Use existing capacity and infrastructure to increase flow and
storage
10
FullyimplementCEPP
Reducewaterconsumption(allsectors)
Communication, education and messaging to public, managers
anddecisionmakers
PrioritizingESAspecies
Constitutional amendment to include climate change in water
managementdecisions
7
6
5
3
ThirdTier
3
NotesfromConveners
As scientists, the groups focused on the technical issues in their fields of expertise. However, the
surrounding discussions and presence of managers from several key agencies made evident the
commitmenttofosteringcommunicationbetweenimplementingagencies,thepublicanddecision
makers.
Equallyevidentfromthediscussions,dividingthegroupsbytopicwasaconvenientwaytomanage
thecontentbutobscuredtheessentialconnectivityamongthedifferentcomponentsofthesystem.
Numerousdiscussionpointsandrecommendationscrossedoverandwerecommonorlinkedtothe
interests and discussions of other groups. Effective action and management response to climate
changewillneedtointegratedifferentsectorsandspheresofinfluenceandsometimesconflicting
needsanddrivers.
Discussion
PlenaryDiscussions
In the plenary discussions, several broad topics of concern across groups were identified and
discussed.Contradictoryoropposingtrendsonsomeissuesneedtoberesolved.
Water Quality vs. Water Quantity: The degree to which the demand for more water flowing
through the Everglades system could be met by allowing discharge of water of lower quality (i.e.
with slightly higher levels of dissolved nutrients). Significant issues were the current legal
constraints on water quality, and the cost, practicability and infrastructure needs of improving
waterqualitypriortorelease.
23 Flood control: High water impacts on the built environment, both agricultural and urban, are a
major preoccupation of regional managers and a driver of current policy and process. However,
several‘lowregret’actionscallforhigherwaterlevelsorallowinghigherhighs,whichchallenges
the capacity to absorb storm inputs during wet periods. The possibility of more intense
precipitationeventsinachangedclimatefutureexacerbatesthisconcern.
Scale:Discussionsinseveralgroupsrevolvedaroundwhatspatialandtemporalscalewasthemost
appropriate in which to consider likely climate change effects and responses. In the
spatial/geographicarena,the‘system’maybetheCERPareaascurrentlydefined,awider(northto
south)‘Evergladessystem’comprisingmostofthecurrentlyunalteredlandandLakeOkeechobee
orthebroadestconceptofacompleteKissimmee‐Okeechobee‐Everglades‐FloridaBaywatershed.
Atthetemporallevelthewholescalerangedfromannual,inter‐annual,andmultiyearat5,10,50
and100‐yearintervals.
Balancing social values with ecological needs: An apparent contradiction emerged between
ecologically driven recommendations to increase water flow and the social pressure to protect
present built environmental structure (e.g. by armoring, diking, etc.). However, ‘social values’
coversabroadgamutofconcernsfrompropertyrightsandeconomicintereststotheconservation
concernsofbothnearanddistantpeople.Therewasconsensusthatwatermanagementcannotand
shouldnotbedrivenentirelybysocialorpoliticalconsiderationsintheabsenceofscientificdata
andprediction.However,integratingthesocialandpoliticalconsiderationsintocurrentandfuture
managementpolicyisrequired.Akeytosuccessfullyachievingthisistheeffectivecommunication
ofscienceinformationtoallinterestedsectors.
Inthefinaldiscussion,anemphasisonimprovedintegrationamongcurrentmanagementagencies
was strongly promoted. The need to accelerate interagency coordination and specifically to
produceimprovedpredictionsoffutureprecipitationpatternswasamajorneed.Managersnoted
that they do not need to completely remove uncertainty in order to make effective management
decisions‐‐in fact, decisions are routinely based in “bounded uncertainty.” However, managers
needtoolsandprocessestoevaluatetherangeandseverityofconsequencesthatwouldflowfrom
decisions made in uncertain settings. Methods of risk analysis, viability analysis and sensitivity
analysis of proposed management actions are needed. Managers also emphasized their need for
information in understandable and easily communicated formats. The published literature, and
even technical reports, are the factual basis for information exchange, but are not an effective
mechanismfortranslatingthatinformationintomanagementfriendlycommunications.Thereisa
needforvisualizationand‘translation’ofactionablesciencetoaformthatthepublic,policymakers
andmanagerscanquicklyunderstand.Thiswasparticularlygermanetotherecognitionthatmuch
on‐the‐ground climate change response and adaptation is and will be applied at the local
governmentlevel.Whileabroadrangeoffederalandstateagencieshavejurisdiction,regulatory
control,infrastructureandcapacitytomanageclimatechangeresponse,day‐to‐dayandlocalaction
willstronglyinfluencemanyimportantfactorssuchasreducedwaterconsumption,development
andbuildingpatternsandstandards.
Proposalstoaddressthisimprovedcoordinationincluded:
 Integrationofinformationfromthismeetingtoexistinginteragencyforums
 Productionofa2‐3pageExecutiveSummaryoftheconclusionsofthismeeting
 Conveninganinteragency,regionaldiscussiongrouptotransferinformation
Theactualwatermanagementactionsproposedbythegroupswereconsideredinthelightoftwo
currentrealities:therateofclimatechangeandconsequenteffectsmayberelativelyslow(decades‐
24 centuries) compared to planning and management action horizons and there is an extensive
existing structure of regulatory schedules, MFLs and infrastructure. Consequently, an immediate
andlowregretsresponsewouldbetouseandadaptexistingcapacitytomoveinthedirectionof
proposedactionsuchasincreasedflow,higherstagesandinter‐annualvariations.Waterstorage
capacityisalreadybuiltintocurrentstructureandpolicysuchasCERPandRestorationStrategies
and can be increased incrementally over time toward long term goals, rather than needing
immediate,expensiveaction.
Integratingthisapproachintocurrentmanagementactivitywouldbeenhancediftherewerebetter
recognition by the public at large of the substantial ecosystem services and benefits that will be
derivedfrombetterEvergladesmanagement.Benefitsincludefloodcontrol,protectionfromstorm
surgeandprotectionofwatersupplyfromsaltintrusion.
Themeetingclosedwithacknowledgementsandthankstothefundingsupporters,organizers,the
organizing committee and staff, participating agencies and individuals, the student recorders and
allparticipants.(Seelistingseparate)
Resources
Pleasefindthemeetingagendaonourwebsite:
http://www.ces.fau.edu/climate_change/everglades‐recommendations‐2014/pdfs/agenda.pdf
Pleasefindbackgroundpresentations,data,reportsandareferencelistonourwebsite:
http://www.ces.fau.edu/climate_change/everglades‐recommendations‐2014/resources.php
Pleasefindalistofparticipantsandorganizersattached.
For more information please contact Mary Beth Hartman, Conference & Outreach Coordinator Center for Environmental Studies at Florida Atlantic University [email protected] or 954‐236‐1203 or visit our website: www.ces.fau.edu