1 The Classical Model versus the Keynesian Model of Income and Interest Rate Determination Classical Keynesian goods market I(r) = S(r) or I(r) = Y - C(r) I(r) = S(Y) or I(r) = Y - C(Y) money market M = kPY M = kPY + L(r) production function Y = Y(N, K ) Y = Y(N, K) labour market D( W W ) S( ) P P W W D S N (P)N (P) Three major differences: (1) no induced consumption induced consumption (consumption as a (positive “feedback” residual decision after between C and Y) saving) reflecting behaviour of different income groups? feedback CYBERNETICS (2) no multiplier effect multiplier effect important implications for autonomous expenditure including G (3) “classical dichotomy ” between the goods and the money markets interaction between the goods and the money markets *Read Brian Morgan, chapter 2. 1 2 2 3 National Income Determination and the Wealth Effect: the IS-LM Model The IS-LM model is a behavioural model with an identity and separate functions for key variables, some of which are endogenous (determined within the model) while others are exogenous (not determined by the model and therefore assumed to be independent). IS (1) IS curve: the equilibrium locus of the goods market, tracing out the relationship between income Y and interest rate r. YC+I+G (identity) C = c0 + c(Y – T) T = t0 + tY (endogenous) (endogenous) G= G (exogenous) I = i0 – fr (endogenous) By substitution Y = c0 + c[Y – (t0 + tY)] + i0 – fr + G G Y[1 c(1 t)] r = c 0 ct 0 i 0 f Y= (IS curve without wealth effect) f 1 (c 0 ct 0 i 0 G) r 1 c(1 t) 1 - c(1 - t) (IS curve without wealth effect) Multiplier: 1 1 1 c(1 t) 1 - c ct When tax is imposed lump-sum, i.e. T = to: Y=C+I+G = c0 + c(Y – t0) + i0 – fr + G 3 4 G Y(1 c) r = c 0 ct 0 i 0 f Y= f 1 (c 0 ct 0 i 0 G) r 1 c 1- c Multiplier: 1 1 , which is greater than . So lump-sum tax 1 c 1 - c ct produces a larger multiplier. (2) Wealth augmented consumption function: C = co + c (Y – T) + jW working out: r = Y= 1 1 c(1 t) (c0 ct0 i0 G jW) Y f f 1 f (c0 ct0 i0 G jW)r 1 c(1 t) 1 c(1 t) (IS curve with wealth effect) LM (2) LM curve: the equilibrium locus of the money market, tracing out the relationship between income Y and interest rate r. Neglecting the price and the Pigou (price) Effect Ms Md (identity—equilibrium condition) Md = hY – lr + gW (endogenous) Ms = M (exogenous) 1 l h l r= M Y (LM curve without wealth effect) 4 5 Y= 1 l M r h h (LM curve without wealth effect) Adding the wealth effect to the money demand Function: Md = hY – lr + gW r= 1 g h W M Y l l l (LM curve with wealth effect) Y= 1 g l M W r h h h (LM curve with wealth effect) LM Pigou Effect Wealth Effect IS LM’ Wealth Effect IS’ Saving the inadequacy of Keynesian effect in face of wage rigidity IS-LM equilibrium with wealth effect 1 1 c(1 t) 1 g h (c 0 ct 0 i 0 G jW) Y= W M Y f f l l l h 1 c(1 t) 1 1 g Y = ( G W) M W j c ct 0 i 0 l f f 0 l l hf l[1 c(1 t)] 1 1 g Y = (c 0 ct 0 i 0 G jW) M - W lf f l l 5 6 Y= 1 lf (c ct 0 i 0 G jW) + hf l[1 c(1 t)] f 0 lf 1 lf g MW hf l[1 c(1 t)] l hf l[1 c(1 t)] l Y* = l (c ct 0 i 0 G jW) hf l[1 c(1 t)] 0 f f gW + M hf l[1 c(1 t)] hf l[1 c(1 t)] LM’’ LM’ LM IS’ IS Y*’’ Y* Y*’ The relative effectiveness of fiscal versus monetary policy (i.e. the relative size of the fiscal multiplier versus the monetary multiplier) depends on the size of l f ? Repeat: the multiplier is a kind of damped positive feedback. 6
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