Narrow the Gap Between Refinery Planning
& Scheduling
An Industry White Paper
Zafar Ali, Product Management Senior Director, Aspen Technology, Inc.
Allison McNulty, Product Marketing Manager, Aspen Technology, Inc.
© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All other
trademarks are property of their respective owners.
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About AspenTech
AspenTech is a leading supplier of software that optimizes process manufacturing—for energy, chemicals,
pharmaceuticals, engineering and construction, power & utilities, mining, pulp and paper, and other mill
products industries that manufacture and produce products from a chemical process. With integrated
aspenONE® solutions, process manufacturers can implement best practices for optimizing their
engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain operations. As a result, AspenTech customers are better
able to increase capacity, improve margins, reduce costs, and become more energy efficient. To see how
the world’s leading process manufacturers rely on AspenTech to achieve their operational excellence
goals, visit www.aspentech.com.
Narrow the Gap Between Refinery Planning & Scheduling
Introduction
Refiners today face increased risks that affect refinery operations and profitability. Risk factors include the increased volatility of crude
oil prices and regional demand shifts for petroleum products, increasingly larger presence of Middle Eastern and Asian refiners in the
global market, the added complexity of meeting new product specifications demands in developed countries, combined with economic
uncertainties on a global scale. The availability of new crude feedstock sources has driven the evaluation of refinery assets to lessen
these risks and leverage supply chain optionality to maximize profit.
Facing pressures on multiple fronts, refineries continue to examine business processes and supporting systems to find new ways to
streamline operations and improve the bottom line. This examination includes the key refinery processes of production planning and
scheduling. Planners are charged with creating the optimal (profitable) plan considering constantly changing market conditions, while
schedulers are tasked with executing against these plans. This article explores the gap between planning and operations and what it
means to modern refining companies – and how improved decision support can narrow that gap, achieving greater profitability.
Defining the Gap
Gaps between the optimal refinery plan and the actual operating schedule exist because the plan does not often consider all the refinery
asset constraints. Gaps can be easily identifiable such as degradation of the FCCU catalyst or delays in the delivery of a shipment of
crude. Other gaps less easily detected include deviation of model predicted yields versus actuals or the ongoing margin leak during
“normal” operations due to disconnects between planning and operations. While there are many technologies available to support
refinery planning, automation tools for scheduling and operations are relatively new. Bringing operations closer to the optimal plan while
respecting refinery constraints and safety requirements can yield refining companies anywhere from 5% to 10% of gross margin or up
to 10 cents per barrel.
Production Capacity
Optimal Plan
The GAP
Op
por
tun
ity
Actual Operation
Time Horizon
Figure 1: Existing opportunity to drive actual operation closer to optimal plan.
© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All other
trademarks are property of their respective owners.
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Narrow the Gap Between Refinery Planning & Scheduling
Synergies in Planning & Scheduling
A good plan combined with poor scheduling does not yield desired results. Scheduling automation provides planners with the ability to
validate their plans and make adjustments considering refinery physical constraints, if necessary. Planners and schedulers must
collaborate to be effective. Scheduling automation enables this to occur more easily. New integration between planning and scheduling
enables the sharing of assay data and production targets to guide operations more closely to the optimal plan. Working with more
accurate and consistent refinery models, planners and schedulers can identify gaps and determine what needs to change in the plan to
make the schedule feasible, drawing actual closer to optimal. As this becomes an iterative process, improvements can be seen in plan
vs. actual, narrowing the gap.
Powerful Analytics and Modeling Capabilities
Cost of feedstock is the single largest operational cost for a refinery, and in the new flexible market it is imperative that refineries select
the right crude slate. Traders often have limited time to make purchase decisions. These decisions carry significant value to a refinery
and are made frequently. Having accurate information readily available to guide these decisions can help save millions of dollars
annually. Planners require tools to better analyze different scenarios effectively.
Recent advancements have improved the accuracy of refinery planning and scheduling models and include the use of powerful analytics
such as scenario evaluation tools, feedstock ranging and crude basket reduction capabilities. These techniques are now considered best
practices and are available with the best planning systems supported by multi-core processing for faster results, allowing for several
cases to run in parallel, reducing run-time from hours to minutes. For example, AspenTech customers use Aspen PIMS to optimize
crude selection and Aspen Petroleum Scheduler to create feasible, economical refinery plans. The end result is minimized supply chain
upsets, improved yield of more valuable products, increased manufacturing efficiency, and reduced margin leakage.
Another approach is the use of goal programming to examine secondary and tertiary goals in addition to the primary objective of the
plan. Secondary and tertiary goals, for example, may include maximization of the throughput for a process unit or minimization of
product quality giveaway. Reducing the amount of product quality giveaway prevents margin loss.
All of these advancements are empowered with sophisticated analytics for visual analysis and reporting of the data. Results can be
visualized in familiar graphs and charts, making the optimal solution easier to identify and share with other stakeholders. Operating with
one version of the truth, planners and schedulers can make better decisions and operate more closely to the optimal, most profitable
plan.
New modeling enhancements allow for the integration of engineering process unit models with the planning and scheduling models,
ensuring consistency and accuracy. This key integration allows for easier and faster LP model updates for better decision support.
Process unit performances (product yields and qualities) change over time. Modifying the planning and scheduling tools to reflect those
changes ensures better aligned planning and scheduling.
© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All other
trademarks are property of their respective owners.
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Narrow the Gap Between Refinery Planning & Scheduling
Conclusion
Refinery margins will continue to be squeezed in today’s competitive market, making the need to narrow the gap between the operating
plan and the executable schedule increasingly important. The use of integrated planning and scheduling automation with enhanced
decision support create the efficiencies required to positively impact the bottom line. Leading companies are using Aspen PIMS and
Aspen Petroleum Scheduler to fill this need.
Enhanced decision support through advancements such as feedstock ranging, basket reduction, and goal programming coupled with
visualization and sharing of the data and integration of engineering models will enable refineries to operate closer to optimal and
improve margins by as much as $0.10 per barrel. Narrowing the gap between the plan and actual results will help refineries remain
profitable in a volatile environment and allow these refineries to more effectively compete globally.
© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All other
trademarks are property of their respective owners.
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Worldwide Headquarters
Aspen Technology, Inc.
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Burlington, MA 01803
United States
phone: +1–781–221–6400
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phone: +65–6395–3900
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phone: +973–17–50–3000
© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen
Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners.
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