4
Student Packet
Joe Soccer’s Decision
Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in
this lesson plan.
Packet Contents
ENSO Decision-Making Lab
Climate Forecasts - worksheet
ENSO Decision-Marking Lab
Joe Soccer realizes to make an informed decision, he needs to collect data on precipitation,
ENSO phase, and number of soccer games played. The following tables give the data Joe
collected. Your job is to use this data and help Joe make an informed decision. The data
contains the year, the ENSO phase, El Niño (E), La Niña (L), or Neutral (O), and precipitation
levels as below normal (B), near normal (N), or above normal (A).
Historical
Observations
on
ENSO phase in December
Associated
with
December
Through February Precipitation
in Bryan / College Station, TX
Precipitation
ENSO
Year
Level
Phase
1971
B
L
1972
A
E
1973
N
L
1974
N
L
1975
B
L
1976
N
E
1977
N
E
1978
A
O
1979
N
O
1980
B
O
1981
B
O
1982
A
E
1983
B
L
1984
N
L
1985
B
O
1986
A
E
1987
B
E
1988
A
L
1989
N
O
1990
A
O
1991
A
E
1992
A
O
1993
N
O
1994
A
E
1995
B
L
1996
N
O
1997
A
E
1998
B
L
1999
B
L
2000
N
L
Summary of number of average
number of games played by league
and precipitation level.
League
Precipitation
Indoor
Outdoor
Level
Below Normal
7
10
Normal
7
8
Above Normal
7
5
Directions – using the data in the tables
answer the following questions. Once
completed, you will have helped Joe
Soccer make a more informed decision
concerning which soccer league to enter.
1. Summarizing the Historical Data - Joe needs to put his data into a form useful for decisionmaking. One useful form to summarize data is bar graphs. Completion of the following
table will help you create the necessary graphs. The number of years with below normal
precipitation for all years and the number of years with above normal precipitation for neutral
years are completed to help you complete the table. After you have completed the following
table, check your numbers with your teacher before answering the questions.
ENSO Phase
All Years
La Niña (L)
El Niño (E)
Neutral (O)
Number of Years with each
Precipitation Level
Below Near Normal
Above
(B)
(N)
(A)
10
3
Activity One – All Years Forecasts
2. Using the data for all years (data in the all years row of the table), create a bar graph with the
horizontal (x-axis) being the three precipitation levels, below, near, and above normal. The
vertical (y-axis) is the number of years that fall into each precipitation category. This graph
will give you a precipitation forecast based on historical precipitation data and not using
ENSO information. Hint: below normal precipitation is completed to get you started.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - All Years
Number of Years
10
8
6
4
2
0
Below Normal
Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal
3. Using the graph created in problem 2, which soccer league should Joe sign-up for?
4. Recognition of Information Needs. Is there enough information in the graph created in
problem 2 to help Joe make a more informed decision than just guessing?
Activity Two – ENSO – Based Climate Forecasts
Activity Setup. Joe knows that the ENSO phase listed for each year in the table is the phase
associated with conditions in the ocean at the beginning of December. He does not have to sign
up for a league until the end of the first week of December. With this information, Joe decides to
use the information on precipitation and ENSO to create a set of climate forecasts. With the
information Joe gained from completing the Learning Module on ENSO, Joe decides to create
three conditional bar graphs. By conditional, Joe will create a bar chart for each of the ENSO
events. Because these charts are based on ENSO information at the beginning of December and
precipitation that occurs after December 1, by developing these charts Joe is creating climate
forecasts for each ESNO phase. Joe’s goal is to play in the largest expected number of soccer
games.
5. La Niña Climate Phase Forecasts - using data for La Niña phase years only, create a bar
chart that gives the number of years that have above below, normal, and above normal
precipitation similar to the graph completed for problem 2. Hint, there are only 11 La Niña
phase years. Use only these 11 years to create your bar graph. The reason the chart is
conditional, is to be included, the year had to be a La Niña year (conditional on the phase
being La Niña). Hint: below normal precipitation is completed to get you started.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - La Nina Years
Number of Years
10
8
6
4
2
0
Below Normal
Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal
6. El Niño Climate Phase Forecast - Using data for El Niño phase years only, create a bar
chart that gives the number of years that have above below, normal, and above normal
precipitation similar to the graph completed for problems 2 and 5.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - El Nino Years
Number of Years
10
8
6
4
2
0
Below Normal
Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal
7. Neutral Climate Phase Forecasts. Create a conditional bar chart using only other event
years similar to problems 2, 5, and 6.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - Neutral Years
Number of Years
10
8
6
4
2
0
Below Normal
Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal
Activity Three - Helping Joe Soccer Make an Informed Decision
Recall, Joe’s goal is to play in the largest expected number of soccer games.
8. Use your climate forecasts graph you created for problem 5 in answering the following
question. If it is a La Niña year, what league do you think Joe should sign-up for? Why?
9. Use your climate forecasts graph you created for problem 6 in answering the following
question. If it is an El Niño year, what league do you think Joe should sign-up for? Why?
10. Use your climate forecasts graph you created for problem 7 in answering the following
question. If it is a neutral year, what league do you think Joe should sign-up for? Why?
11. Your answers to questions 8, 9, and 10 should be different. Why?
Activity Four – Converting Graphical Forecasts to Probabilistic Forecasts
11. Calculating Probabilities. Complete the following table by using the information in problem
1. Calculate the historical probabilities of below normal, normal, and above normal
precipitation levels for the different ENSO phases.
Probability hint: probability is calculated as the number years with a particular precipitation
level divided by the total number of years with that phase. For the below normal
precipitation category and all years, the probability would be calculated as follows
10 / 30 = .333 ≈ .33 because 10 years out of the 30 had below normal precipitation. For
above normal precipitation in neutral years, the probability is 3 / 10 = .30 because 3 years had
above average precipitation out of 10 neutral years. These two hints, along with all
precipitation and La Niña years, are completed on the table to help you. Be sure to put the
formula and answer in each box.
ENSO Phase
All Years
Below Normal
Precipitation Level
Near Normal
Above Normal
All Precipitation
Levels
10/30=.333
33.3%
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
11/30=.367
36.7%
3/10=.30
30%
12. The probabilities in the table represent precipitation probabilistic forecasts for precipitation
conditional on the ENSO phase. Use the values in the probability table to answer the
following questions. Round your answer to the nearest ones.
a) What is the probability of below normal precipitation occurring, if the ENSO phase is
La Niña? Hint: use the column below normal and row La Niña.
b) What is the probability of below normal precipitation occurring, if the ENSO event is
El Niño?
c) What is the probability of near normal precipitation occurring, if the ENSO event is
neutral?
d) Why do the probabilities differ in questions 12 a, b, and c? Hint: recall the material
form Learning Module 3 on the scientific aspects of ENSO.
Activity Five - Inferencing Beyond the Data
An important aspect in science and learning is the ability to make inferences beyond the data.
The problems in this activity are designed to allow the student to make such inferences. In
making inferences, it is important that scientists provide reasons, which support their inference.
Materials Necessary Graphs from Activity Two for problems 5, 6, and 7
1. Cloud Cover. Examine the graphs from Activity Two, which ENSO phase years (La Niña,
El Niño, or neutral) would you expect Bryan / College Station to experience the most cloudy
days during the period December through February? Provide a reason for your answer.
2. Solar Radiation. Using the graphs from Activity Two, which ENSO phase years (La Niña, El
Niño, or neutral) would you expect Bryan / College Station to experience the most solar
radiation during the period December through February? Provide a reason for your answer.
Hint: solar radiation is energy transported from the sun to the earth through electromagnetic
waves.
3. Daytime Temperatures. Using the graphs from Activity Two, which ENSO phase years (La
Niña, El Niño, or neutral) would you expect Bryan / College Station to experience higher
daytime temperatures during the period December through February? Provide a reason for
your answer.
.
Climate Forecasts
Materials Necessary
Internet access
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues three month long climate
forecasts for the U.S.
These forecasts can be found at the following internet web site:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off_index.html. Be sure
to read how to interpret the forecasts. One important aspect of forecasts is lead-time. Lead-time
is defined as the time between when NOAA issues a forecast and the period the forecast covers.
For example, a 4.5 month lead time forecast issued October 15, would be for climate conditions
occurring in the three months March, April, and May, beginning 4.5 months into the future. This
forecast would be given by the link 4.5mn on the web site.
1.
Seasonal Climate Forecasts. Go to the above web site and find the 0.5 month and 2.5 month
lead-time forecasts. Use these forecasts to answer the following questions. Be sure to print
out and hand-in the forecasts.
2. 0.5 Month Lead-time forecast. Is the area you live in forecasted to have above, normal, or
below normal precipitation for the three months beginning approximately two weeks from
the time the forecast was issued?
3. 2.5 Month Lead-time forecast. Is the area you live in forecasted to have above, normal, or
below normal precipitation for the three months starting approximately 2.5 months from the
day the forecast was issued?
4. Inference Concerning Accuracy of the Forecasts. Which forecast would you expect to be the
most accurate, lead-times of 0.5 months or 2.5 months? Support your answer.