56
The Cultural Landscape
FIGURE 2-13 Life expectancy at birth. Life
expectancy at birth is the average number of years a
newborn infant can expect to live. Worldwide, babies
born this year are expected to live until their mid-sixties.
Life expectancy for babies ranges from the 40s in several
African countries to the 80s in some MDCs.
80°
ARCTIC OCEAN
ARCTIC OCEAN
70°
Arctic Circle
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
30°
Tropic of Cancer
30°
50°
PACIFIC
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
30°
40°
OCEAN
30°
Tropic of Cancer
20°
20°
160°
PACIFIC
10°
OCEAN
50°
60°
Equator
Equator
70°
80°
INDIAN
10°
10°
20°
BAY OF
BENGAL
10°
0°
0°
20°
ARABIAN
SEA
10°
140°
90°
10°
120°
LIFE EXPECTANCY
AT BIRTH (IN YEARS)
30°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
50°
50°
150°
160°
170°
CORAL SEA
20°
20°
20°
Tropic of Capricorn
30°
30°
30°
80 and above
40°
70–79
50°
60–69
40°
40°
180°
110° 120° 130° 140° 150° 160°
50°
0
0
Below 60
FIGURE 2-14 Crude death rate (CDR). Crude death
rate is the total number of deaths in a year for every
1,000 people alive in the society. The global pattern of
crude death rates varies from those for the other
demographic variables already mapped in this chapter.
The demographic transition helps to explain the
distinctive distribution of crude death rates.
150°
OCEAN
1,000
3,000 MILES
2,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 KILOMETERS
MODIFIED GOODE'S HOMOLOSINE EQUAL-AREA PROJECTION
80°
ARCTIC OCEAN
ARCTIC OCEAN
70°
Arctic Circle
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
50°
PACIFIC
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
30°
30°
Tropic of Cancer
160°
0°
30°
30°
Tropic of Cancer
20°
20°
10°
40°
OCEAN
BAY OF
BENGAL
10°
10°
OCEAN
50°
60°
Equator
0°
Equator
70°
80°
INDIAN
10°
10°
20°
20°
ARABIAN
SEA
PACIFIC
140°
90°
10°
120°
CRUDE DEATH RATE
(PER 1,000 PERSONS)
30°
20°
150°
OCEAN
20°
20°
150°
160°
170°
CORAL SEA
20°
20°
Tropic of Capricorn
30°
30°
40°
40°
50°
50°
30°
30°
30°
15 and above
40°
50°
10–14
5–9
40°
110° 120° 130° 140° 150° 160°
50°
Why Is Population
Increasing at Different
Rates in Different
Countries?
■
■
■
■
The Demographic Transition
Population Pyramids
Countries in Different Stages of
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition and World
Population Growth
All countries have experienced some changes in natural
increase, fertility, and mortality rates, but at different times
and at different rates. Although rates vary among countries,
0
0
Below 5
KEY ISSUE 3
40°
1,000
2,000
180°
3,000 MILES
1,000 2,000 3,000 KILOMETERS
MODIFIED GOODE'S HOMOLOSINE EQUAL-AREA PROJECTION
a similar process of change in a society’s population,
known as the demographic transition, is operating.
Because of diverse local cultural and economic conditions,
the demographic transition diffuses to individual countries
at different rates and produces local variations in natural
increase, fertility, and mortality. ■
The Demographic Transition
The demographic transition is a process with several stages,
and every country is in one of them. The process has a beginning, middle, and end. Historically, once a country has moved
from one stage of the process to the next, it has not reverted to
an earlier stage. However, a reversal may be occurring in some
African countries because of the AIDS epidemic. The four
stages are shown in Figure 2-15.
Stage 1: Low Growth
Most of humanity’s several-hundred-thousand-year occupancy
of Earth was characterized by stage 1 of the demographic transition. Crude birth and death rates varied considerably from
57
3
10
0
Low growth
High growth
Decreasing growth
Low growth
FIGURE 2-15 Demographic transition. The demographic transition consists
of four stages:
• Stage 1: Very high birth and death rates produce virtually no long-term natural
increase.
• Stage 2: Rapidly declining death rates combined with very high birth rates
produce a very high natural increase.
• Stage 3: Birth rates rapidly decline, death rates continue to decline, and
natural increase rates begin to moderate.
• Stage 4: Very low birth and death rates produce virtually no long-term natural
increase, and possibly a decrease.
Population (billions)
one year to the next and from one region to another, but over
the long term they were roughly comparable, at very high levels. As a result, the NIR was essentially zero, and Earth’s population was unchanged, at perhaps a half-million.
During most of this period, people depended on hunting and
gathering for food (see Chapter 10). When food was easily
obtained, a region’s population increased, but it declined
when people were unable to locate enough animals or vegetation nearby.
About the year 8000, the world’s population began to
grow by several thousand per year. Between 8000 BC and
AD 1750, Earth’s human population increased from
approximately 5 million to 800 million (Figure 2-16).
The burst of population growth around 8000 BC was
caused by the agricultural revolution, which was the
time when human beings first domesticated plants and
animals and no longer relied entirely on hunting and
gathering. By growing plants and raising animals,
human beings created larger and more stable sources of
food, so more people could survive.
Despite the agricultural revolution, the human population remained in stage 1 of the demographic transition
because food supplies were still unpredictable. Farmers
prospered in regions with abundant harvests, and the
population expanded, but when unfavorable climatic
conditions resulted in low food production, the CDR
would soar. War and disease also took their toll in stage 1
societies.
Most of human history was spent in stage 1 of the
demographic transition, but today no such country
remains there. Every nation has moved on to at least stage 2
of the demographic transition, and, with that transition,
has experienced profound changes in population.
8
400,000 BC-8000 BC
8000 BC-1 AD
1 AD-1750
1750-1800
1800-1850
1850-1900
1900-1950
1950-2000
7
6
Doubling
time (years)
NIR
(annual %)
Era
59,007
1,345
1,250
163
136
129
85
40
0.0001
0.05
0.06
0.43
0.51
0.54
0.81
1.75
2000 population–
6,080,000,000
5
4
3
1950 population–2,516,000,000
2
1900 population–1,656,000,000
1850 population–1,266,000,000
1
1800 population–985,000,000
8000 BC population–
500,000
1 AD population–300,000,000
0
BC
AD
2000
1
1000
Dea
th
20
1000
2
30
2000
a
3000
re
se
Birt
h
40
4000
al
in
5000
50
1750, the world’s population suddenly began to grow ten times
faster than in the past. The average annual increase jumped
from about 0.05 percent (one-twentieth of 1 percent) to 0.5
percent (one-half of 1 percent). World population grew by
about 5 million in 1800, compared to only about one-half million in 1750.
The sudden burst of population growth occurred in the late
eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries because several countries moved on to stage 2 of the demographic transition. In stage 2
of the demographic transition, the CDR suddenly plummets,
while the CBR remains roughly the same as in stage 1. Because the
difference between the CBR and CDR is suddenly very high, the
NIR is also very high, and population grows rapidly. Some
demographers divide stage 2 of the demographic transition into
two parts. The first part is the period of accelerating population
growth. During the second part, the growth rate begins to slow,
although the gap between births and deaths remains high.
Countries entered stage 2 of the demographic transition
after 1750 as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which
began in England in the late eighteenth century and spread
to the European continent and North America during the
nineteenth century. The Industrial Revolution was a conjunction of major improvements in industrial technology
(invention of the steam engine, mass production, powered
Stage 4
6000
Na
tur
7000
Stage 3
8000
Stage 2
Natural increase rate (%)
Stage 1
c
Crude birth and death rates (per 1,000)
Chapter 2: Population
Year
Stage 2: High Growth
For nearly 10,000 years after the agricultural revolution,
world population grew at a modest pace. After around
FIGURE 2-16 Population growth through history. Through most of human history
population growth was virtually nil. Population increased rapidly beginning in the
eighteenth century.
58
The Cultural Landscape
transportation) that transformed the process of manufacturing goods and delivering them to market (see Chapter 11).
The result of this transformation was an unprecedented level
of wealth, some of which was used to make communities
healthier places to live.
New machines helped farmers increase agricultural production and feed the rapidly growing population. More efficient
agriculture freed people to work in factories, producing other
goods and generating enough food for the industrial workers.
The wealth produced by the Industrial Revolution was also used
to improve sanitation and personal hygiene. Sewer systems were
installed in cities, and food and water supplies were protected
against contamination. As a result of these public improvements, people were healthier and therefore lived longer.
Countries in Europe and North America entered stage 2 of the
demographic transition about 1800, but stage 2 did not diffuse to
most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until around
1950. With the diffusion of stage 2 of the demographic transition, world population grew by 1.7 percent per year during the
second half of the twentieth century, compared to 0.5 percent per
year during the nineteenth century. The world added about
80 million people in 2000, compared to 8 million in 1900.
Countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America moved on to
stage 2 of the demographic transition during the second half of
the twentieth century for a different reason than was the case
for Europe and North America 200 years earlier. The latetwentieth-century push of countries into stage 2 was caused by
the medical revolution. Medical technology invented in
Europe and North America diffused to LDCs in Africa, Asia,
and Latin America. Improved medical practices suddenly eliminated many of the traditional causes of death in LDCs and
enabled more people to experience longer and healthier lives.
Stage 3: Moderate Growth
A country moves from stage 2 to stage 3 of the demographic
transition when the CBR begins to drop sharply. The CDR
continues to fall in stage 3 but at a much slower rate than in
stage 2. The population continues to grow because the CBR is
still greater than the CDR. But the rate of natural increase is
more modest in countries in stage 3 than in those in stage 2
because the gap between the CBR and the CDR narrows. European and North American countries generally moved from stage 2
to stage 3 of the demographic transition during the first half of
the twentieth century. Most countries in Asia and Latin America have moved to stage 3 in recent years, while most African
countries remain in stage 2.
The sudden drop in the CBR during stage 3 occurs for different reasons than the rapid decline of the CDR during stage 2.
The CDR declined in stage 2 following the introduction of new
technology into the society, but the CBR declines in stage 3
because of changes in social customs. A society enters stage 3
of the demographic transition when people have fewer children. The decision is partly a delayed reaction to a decline in
mortality, especially the IMR. In stage 1 societies, the survival
of any one infant could not be confidently predicted, and families typically had a large number of babies so as to improve the
chances of some surviving to adulthood. Medical practices
introduced in stage 2 societies greatly improved the probability
of infant survival, but many years elapsed before families
reacted by conceiving fewer babies.
Economic changes in stage 3 societies also induce people to
have fewer offspring. People in stage 3 societies are more likely
to live in cities rather than in the countryside and to work in
offices, shops, or factories rather than on farms. Farmers often
consider a large family to be an asset because children can do
some of the chores. In contrast, children living in cities are generally not economic assets to their parents, because they are
prohibited from working in most types of urban jobs. In addition, urban homes are relatively small and may not have space
to accommodate large families.
Stage 4: Low Growth
A country reaches stage 4 of the demographic transition when
the CBR declines to the point where it equals the CDR, and the
NIR approaches zero (Figure 2-17). This condition is called
zero population growth (ZPG), a term often applied to stage 4
countries.
ZPG may occur when the CBR is still slightly higher than the
CDR, because some females die before reaching childbearing
years, and the number of females in their childbearing years can
vary. To account for these discrepancies, demographers more
precisely define ZPG as the TFR that results in a lack of change
in the total population over a long term. A TFR of approximately 2.1 produces ZPG, although a country that receives
many immigrants may need a lower TFR to achieve ZPG.
Countries in stage 4 of the demographic transition can be
identified on the map of total fertility rate (Figure 2-11). Most
European countries have reached stage 4 of the demographic
transition because they have TFRs well below the ZPG replacement level of 2.1. In the United States, the TFR has hovered
around ZPG since 2000.
Social customs again explain the movement from one stage
of the demographic transition to the next. Increasingly, women
in stage 4 societies enter the labor force rather than remain at
home as full-time homemakers. When most families lived on
farms, employment and child rearing were conducted at the
same place, but in urban societies most parents must leave the
home to work in an office, shop, or factory. An employed parent must arrange for someone to take care of their preschoolage children during working hours.
Changes in lifestyle also encourage smaller families. People
who have access to a wider variety of birth-control methods are
more likely to use some of them. With increased income and
leisure time, more people participate in entertainment and
recreation activities that may not be suitable for young children, such as attending cultural events, traveling overseas,
going to bars, and eating at upscale restaurants.
Several Eastern European countries, most notably Russia,
have negative NIRs, meaning that the number of deaths
exceeds the number of births (refer to Figure 2-9). Eastern
Europe’s relatively high death rates and low birth rates are a
legacy of a half-century of Communist rule. Higher death rates
may be a result of inadequate pollution controls and inaccurate
reporting by the Communists. Lower birth rates may stem from
59
Chapter 2: Population
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
50
50
40
40
• Stage 1: Demographers must estimate birth and death rates
prior to 1750 because precise records are not available. Church
parish records of births, baptisms, marriages, and burials help
30
in making estimates.
In 1066, when the Normans invaded England, the country’s
population was approximately 1 million. Seven hundred years
20
later, the population was only 6 million, and the country was still
in stage 1 of the demographic transition. During that 700-year
period, the population rose in some years and fell in others. For
example, England’s population declined from 4 million in the year
10
1250 to 2 million a century later after the Black Death (bubonic
plague) and famines swept the country. As recently as the 1740s,
the CDR skyrocketed following a series of bad harvests.
0
• Stage 2: In 1750, the CBR and CDR in England were both 40
Years
per 1,000. In 1800, the CBR remained very high at 34, but the
CDR had plummeted to 20.
This 50-year period marked the start of the Industrial
Revolution in England. New production techniques increased the nation’s food
supply and generated money that was spent on improvements in public health.
England remained in stage 2 of the demographic transition for about 125 years.
During that period the population rose from 6 million to 30 million, an average
annual NIR of 1.4 percent.
• Stage 3: After 1880 England entered stage 3 of the demographic transition.
The CBR declined sharply over the next century, while the CDR continued to
fall somewhat. The population increased between 1880 and 1970 from 26
million to 49 million, about 0.7 percent per year.
• Stage 4: England has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the
early 1970s. The CBR has varied between 12 and 14 per 1,000; the CDR has
varied between 10 and 12.
very strong family-planning programs and deep-seated pessimism about having children in an uncertain world. As memories of the Communist era fade, Russians and other Eastern
Europeans may display birth and death rates more comparable
to those in Western Europe. Alternatively, demographers in the
future may identify a fifth stage of the demographic transition,
characterized by higher death rates than birth rates and an irreversible population decline.
A country that has passed through all four stages of the
demographic transition has in some ways completed a cycle—
from little or no natural increase in stage 1, to little or no natural increase in stage 4. Two crucial demographic differences
underlie this process, however. First, at the beginning of the
demographic transition, the CBRs and CDRs are high—35 to
40 per 1,000—whereas at the end of the process the rates are
very low, approximately 10 per 1,000. Second, the total population of the country is much higher in stage 4 than in stage 1.
Birth
30
th
Dea
20
Na
tion
ula
Pop
1150
1350
1550
1750
1800
1850
Total population (millions)
Stage 1
Crude birth and death rates (per 1,000)
provides a good case study of the long-term impact of the
demographic transition. It has reached stage 4, and at least
fragmentary information on its population is available for the past
1,000 years. Further, unlike the United States and many other
countries, England has not changed its boundaries, nor has it been
affected by migration of enough people to affect national trends.
tu
ra
l In
1900
1
cre
a
NIR
FIGURE 2-17 Demographic transition for England. England
se
1950
2010
The CBR increases slightly in some years because the number of women in
their childbearing years is greater, not because of decisions by women to have
more children. The TFR has long been well below the 2.1 needed for
replacement. England’s population has grown by 3 million since 1970,
primarily because of immigration from former colonies.
When England began to progress through the demographic transition around
1750, the country had 6 million people, crude birth and death rates of 40 per
1,000, and a record of little population growth over the previous 700 years. For the
past three decades, England has been in another period of little population growth.
The difference is that the crude birth and death rates are now around 11 rather than
40, and the country has 53 million inhabitants instead of 6 million.
percentage of the population in each age group and the distribution of males and females.
A country’s population can be displayed by age and gender
groups on a bar graph called a population pyramid. A population pyramid normally shows the percentage of the total population in 5-year age groups, with the youngest group (0 to 4
years old) at the base of the pyramid and the oldest group at the
top. The length of the bar represents the percentage of the total
population contained in that group. By convention, males are
usually shown on the left side of the pyramid and females on
the right.
The shape of a pyramid is determined primarily by the CBR
in the community. A country in stage 2 of the demographic
transition, with a high CBR, has a relatively large number of
young children, making the base of the population pyramid
very broad. On the other hand, a country in stage 4, with a relatively large number of older people, has a graph with a wider
top that looks more like a rectangle than a pyramid.
Population Pyramids
Age Distribution
A country’s stage of demographic transition gives it a distinctive population structure. Population in a country is influenced
by the demographic transition in two principal ways—the
The age structure of a population is extremely important in
understanding similarities and differences among countries.
The most important factor is the dependency ratio, which is
60
The Cultural Landscape
higher incomes. People over age 65 comprise 16 percent of the
population in Europe compared to 3 percent in sub-Saharan
Africa.
Older people must receive adequate levels of income and
medical care after they retire from their jobs. The “graying” of
the population places a burden on European and North American governments to meet these needs. More than one-fourth of
all government expenditures in the United States, Canada,
Japan, and many European countries go to Social Security,
health care, and other programs for the older population.
Because of the larger percentage of older people, countries in
stages 3 and 4 of the demographic transition, such as the United
States and Sweden, have higher CDRs than do stage 2 countries.
the number of people who are too young or too old to work,
compared to the number of people in their productive years.
The larger the percentage of dependents, the greater the financial burden on those who are working to support those who
cannot.
To compare the dependency ratios of different countries,
we can divide the population into three age groups—0 to 14,
15 to 64, and 65 and older. People who are 0–14 years of
age and 65-plus are normally classified as dependents.
Nearly one-half of all people living in countries in stage 2 of
the demographic transition are dependents, compared to
only one-third in stage 4 countries. Consequently, the
dependency ratio is nearly 1:1 in stage 2 countries, whereas
in stage 4 countries the ratio is 1:2 (one dependent for every
two workers).
Young dependents outnumber elderly ones by 10:1 in stage 2
countries, but the numbers of young and elderly dependents
are roughly equal in stage 4 countries. More than 40 percent of
the people are under age 15 in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to
20 percent or less in Europe and North America (Figure 2-18).
The large percentage of children in sub-Saharan Africa strains
the ability of these relatively poor countries to provide needed
services such as schools, hospitals, and day-care centers. When
children reach the age of leaving school, jobs must be found for
them, but the government must continue to allocate scarce
resources to meet the needs of the still growing number of
young people.
As countries pass through the stages of the demographic
transition, the percentage of elderly people increases. The
higher percentage partly reflects the lower percentage of
young people produced by declining CBRs. Older people also
benefit in stage 4 countries from improved medical care and
Sex Ratio
The number of males per hundred females in the population is
the sex ratio. It varies among countries, depending on birth
and death rates. In general, slightly more males than females
are born, but males have higher death rates. The ratio of men to
women is about 93:100 (that is, 93 men for each 100 women)
in Europe and 97:100 in North America. In LDCs, the ratio is
103:100.
In the United States, males under age 15 exceed females
105:100. Women start outnumbering men at about age 40, and
they comprise 58 percent of the population over age 65.
In stage 2 countries, the high mortality rate during childbirth partly explains the lower percentage of women. The difference also relates to the age structure, because stage 2
countries have a larger percentage of young people—where
males generally outnumber females—and a lower percentage of
older people, where females are much more numerous.
80°
ARCTIC OCEAN
ARCTIC OCEAN
70°
Arctic Circle
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
PACIFIC
40°
40°
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
30°
40°
40°
OCEAN
30°
30°
30°
Tropic of Cancer
Tropic of Cancer
20°
20°
10°
0°
PACIFIC
OCEAN
20°
ARABIAN
SEA
160°
BAY OF
BENGAL
10°
10°
Equator
50°
0°
60°
70°
80°
INDIAN
10°
10°
20°
30°
140°
90°
10°
120°
PERSONS UNDER
AGE 15 (%)
40 and above
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
50°
50°
150°
OCEAN
20°
Tropic of Capricorn
30°
150°
160°
170°
CORAL SEA
20°
20°
30°
30°
30–39
40°
20–29
Below 20
50°
40°
40°
110° 120° 130° 140° 150° 160°
50°
0
0
1,000
2,000
180°
3,000 MILES
1,000 2,000 3,000 KILOMETERS
MODIFIED GOODE'S HOMOLOSINE EQUAL-AREA PROJECTION
FIGURE 2-18 Percent of population under age 15. A map of the percentage of people over age 65 would
show a reverse pattern, with the highest percentages in Europe and the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa and the
Middle East.
61
Chapter 2: Population
The shape of a community’s population pyramid tells a lot about its distinctive character, especially compared with
other places. In Figure 2-19, compare
the shapes of the overall U.S. population
pyramid with those for Cedar Rapids,
Detroit, Honolulu, and Laredo. Cedar
Rapids and Honolulu have relatively flat
pyramids; Detroit and Laredo have relatively broad-based ones. The different
shapes result from differences in the
ethnic composition of the four cities.
Detroit and Laredo have relatively
broad-based pyramids because birth
rates are relatively high among African
Americans and Hispanic Americans,
who form the majority in these two
cities. On the other hand, birth rates are
relatively low among the Asian American and European-descended communities, the majorities in Honolulu and
Cedar Rapids, respectively.
The population pyramid for Naples,
where 42 percent of the people are over
age 65, resembles an upside-down pyramid. Unalaska, a small town with a military base, has an exceptionally high
percentage of males, whereas Naples, with
a large percentage of elderly people, has
substantially more females than males
because females have longer life expectancies. Cities with large universities, such as
Lawrence, have an exceptionally high percentage of people in their twenties. See
the Contemporary Geographic Tools box
for information on collecting statistics
about a country’s population.
Countries in
Different Stages
of Demographic
Transition
90
80
70
60
10
90
50
00
80
40
90
70
30
80
60
20
70
50
10
60
0
50
40
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Male
40
0 1
%
2
3
4
5
6
30
7
Female
20
(92% White)
Cedar Rapids, IA
30
10
20
0
7
6
5
4
10
0
3
2
1
0 1
%
Male
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Male
0 1
%
2
3
4
5
6
2
3
4
5
6
7
Female
Detroit, MI
(82% African-American)
7
Female
USA
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Male
0 1
%
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
6
5
4
2
1
0 1
%
2
3
4
5
6
7
Female
Laredo, TX
(94% Hispanic)
Honolulu, HI
(66% Asian-American and/or
Native Hawaiian)
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
90
40
30
80
30
20
70
20
10
60
10
50
0
0
3
Male
Female
7
6
5
4
3
Male
2
1
0 1
%
Unalaska, AK
(71% Male)
2
3
4
5
Female
6
7
40
7
6
5
4
3
Male
2
1
0 1
%
2
3
4
5
6
7
Female
Naples, FL
(42% over age 65)
30
20
10
0
7
6
5
4
3
Male
2
1
0 1
%
2
3
4
5
6
7
Female
Lawrence, KS
(College town)
FIGURE 2-19 Population pyramids for the United States and selected communities. Detroit and Laredo
have broader pyramids than Cedar Rapids and Honolulu, indicating higher percentages of young people and
higher fertility rates. Unalaska has a high percentage of males because it contains an isolated military base.
Lawrence has a high percentage of people in their twenties because it is the home of the University of Kansas.
Naples has a high percentage of elderly people, especially women, so its pyramid is upside down.
Countries display distinctive population characteristics depending on their stage in the demographic transition. No country
today remains in stage 1 of the demographic transition, but it is
instructive to compare countries in each of the other three stages.
Let us look at three case studies of countries in stages 2, 3, and 4.
Cape Verde: Stage 2 (High Growth)
Cape Verde, a collection of ten small islands in the Atlantic Ocean
off the coast of West Africa, moved from stage 1 to stage 2 about
1950. Cape Verde was a colony of Portugal until it became independent in 1975, and the Portuguese administrators left better
records of births and deaths than are typical for a colony in stage 1.
During the first half of the twentieth century, Cape Verde’s
population declined, from 147,000 in 1900 to 137,000 in 1949.
CBRs were generally in the forties and CDRs in the twenties
(Figure 2-21). The large gap between births and deaths most
years produced a high NIR typical of stage 2 of the demographic
transition, yet Cape Verde remained in stage 1 until 1950 because
several severe famines dramatically disrupted the typical patterns
of birth, death, and natural increase. For example, famine made
Cape Verde’s CDR rocket to 74 per 1,000 in 1941 and 101 in
1942. Because fewer babies were conceived at the height of the
famine in 1942, the CBR fell in 1943 to only 22. Population also
declined during periods of famine because survivors migrated to
other countries. Wide fluctuations in the crude birth and death
CONTEMPORARY GEOGRAPHIC TOOLS
Spatial Analysis and the Census
Geography relies on statistical data to
conduct spatial analysis. The single most
important data source for human geographers is the census (Figure 2-20). Many
of the maps of the United States or portions of the country found in this book
rely on census data.
In the United States, a census of population and a census of housing take
place once a decade, in years ending in
zero, including 2010. Censuses of various types of businesses are undertaken
once every 5 years. Canada, the United
Kingdom, and a number of other countries once ruled by the British take the
census every 10 years, in years ending
in 1, including 2011. A census of all
humanity has never been held. In 1995,
the United Nations called for all member
states to hold a census within a decade,
but many countries did not comply.
Despite its importance, the census is
controversial in many countries, for two
reasons. First, many people fear that participating in the census will harm them.
Two examples:
• In China, an estimated 100 million
were missed in 2000 because people
allegedly didn’t want to report that
they had more than one child, in violation of the country’s one-child policy (see Case Study Revisited later in
this chapter).
FIGURE 2-20 Taking the census. Homeless people sleeping in New York City’s Penn Station are counted by a census
taker.
rates from one year to the next, depending on economic and environmental conditions, are typical of stage 1 countries.
This long-term pattern of demographic uncertainty suddenly
ended in 1950, and Cape Verde quickly moved to stage 2 of the
demographic transition. Since entering stage 2 a half-century ago,
the population of Cape Verde has surged to 427,000, and natural
62
• In the United States, homeless people, ethnic minorities, and citizens of
other countries without proper immigration documents may be less likely
to complete the census form. These
individuals may fear that the Bureau
of the Census could turn over the
forms to another government agency,
such as the FBI or the Department of
Homeland Security.
The second controversy is how to
account for the people who are missed by
the census. Geographers, census bureau
officials, and others interested in spatial
analysis are able to apply statistical sampling techniques to get a more accurate
count, as well as to identify detailed characteristics of people, housing, and businesses.
Sampling is routinely applied to the British
census to improve its accuracy, but it has
proved controversial in the United States.
The method of counting matters in
the United States, because the district
boundaries of the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as of the 50 state legislatures, must be redrawn every decade in
accordance with the census. Also, the
U.S. and state governments allocate
many types of funds to communities on
the basis of population. Politicians sympathetic to the needs of the homeless
and immigrants have been especially
vocal in support of sampling, whereas
those from other constituencies are
more inclined to oppose it. The U.S.
Supreme Court has ruled that Article 1,
Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution prevents using statistical techniques to
apportion seats. Otherwise, spatial patterns and trends are analyzed using statistically valid samples. ■
increase has averaged more than 2.0 percent per year. Cape Verde
moved into stage 2 when an antimalarial campaign was launched.
The CDR dropped by around 60 percent in just one year, between
1949 and 1950, and another 70 percent in the half-century since
then. Meanwhile, as is typical of stage 2 countries, Cape Verde’s
CBR has remained relatively high and still fluctuates wildly.
63
Chapter 2: Population
90
50
40
30
20
10
0
500
40
Natural
cre
In a
30
u
Pop
20
ion
lat
2
D e ath
10
1930
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
%
Male
Female
400
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
N I R
60
50
rt h e
Bi
s
Birth and death rates (per 1,000)
70
Stage 2
Population
(thousand)
Stage 1
80
1
1990
2000
FIGURE 2-21 Demographic transition and population pyramid for Cape Verde. Cape Verde entered stage 2
of the demographic transition in approximately 1950, as indicated by the large gap between birth and death
rates since then. As is typical of countries in stage 2 of the demographic transition, Cape Verde has a
population pyramid with a very wide base.
The wild fluctuations in Cape Verde’s CBR are a legacy of the
severe famine during the 1940s. Birth rates were lower during
the 1960s because Cape Verde had relatively few women in
their twenties, the prime childbearing years. Women in their
twenties during the 1960s would have been born during the
1940s, when the famine kept birth rates very low. Similarly,
declining birth rates during the 1990s reflected the small
number of women in prime childbearing years, who would
have been born during the 1960s and 1970s. Conversely, the
higher birth rates in the 1950s and 1980s resulted from a larger
number of women in their childbearing years.
The population pyramid shows that Cape Verde has a large
number of females age 5–14 who will soon start moving into their
prime childbearing years. For Cape Verde to enter stage 3 of the
90
demographic transition during the next decade, these females
must bear considerably fewer children than did their mothers.
Chile: Stage 3 (Moderate Growth)
Chile provides an example of a country outside Europe and
North America that has reached stage 3 of the demographic
transition but is likely to take some time before continuing to
stage 4 (Figure 2-22). Chile has changed from a predominantly rural society based on agriculture to an urban society in
which most people now work in factories, offices, and shops.
However, many Chileans still have large families.
Like most countries outside Europe and North America, Chile
entered the twentieth century still in stage 1 of the demographic
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
%
Male
Female
15
50
40
12
Birth
Death
Population
(millions)
70
30
20
2
n
Populatio
10
al Incr
tur
Na
1860
1880
1900
1
se
ea
1920
1940
FIGURE 2-22 Demographic transition and population pyramid for Chile. Chile entered stage 2 of the
demographic transition in the 1930s, when death rates declined sharply, and stage 3 in the 1960s, when birth
rates declined sharply.
1960
1980
2000
N I R
Birth and death rates (per 1,000)
80
64
The Cultural Landscape
90
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
%
Male
Female
Stage 3
Stage 4
50
5
n
tio
ula
p
Po
Bi
rt h
40
30
4
20
Population
(millions)
Birth and death rates (per 1,000)
70
Stage 2
2
Death
10
1
Natural Increase
1830
1860
1890
1920
1950
1980
N I R
Stage 1
80
2010
FIGURE 2-23 Demographic transition and population pyramid for Denmark. Denmark has been in stage
4 of the demographic transition and has experienced virtually no change in total population since the 1970s.
The population pyramid is much straighter than that of Cape Verde and that of Chile, a reflection of the
relatively large percentage of elderly people and small percentage of children
transition. Population had grown modestly during the nineteenth
century at a NIR of less than 1 percent per year. However,
much of Chile’s population growth—as in other countries in the
Western Hemisphere—resulted from European immigration.
Chile’s CDR declined sharply in the 1930s, moving the
country into stage 2 of the demographic transition. As elsewhere in Latin America, Chile’s CDR was lowered by the infusion of medical technology from MDCs such as the United
States, bringing under control such diseases as smallpox,
malaria, and dysentery.
Chile has been in stage 3 of the demographic transition since
the 1960s. The CDR continued to decline more modestly than in
the past, while the CBR dropped sharply. Chile moved on to stage
3 of the demographic transition primarily because of a vigorous
government family-planning policy, initiated in 1966. Reduced
income and high unemployment at that time also induced couples to postpone marriage and delay childbearing.
Although Chile’s NIR is lower today than in the 1950s, the
country is unlikely to move into stage 4 of the demographic
transition in the near future. Chile’s government reversed its
policy and renounced support for family planning during the
1970s. The government policy was that population growth
could help promote national security and economic development. Further reduction in the CBR is also hindered by the fact
that most Chileans belong to the Roman Catholic Church,
which opposes the use of what it calls artificial birth-control
techniques.
Denmark: Stage 4 (Low Growth)
Denmark, like most European countries, has reached stage 4
of the demographic transition. The country entered stage 2
in the nineteenth century, when the CDR began its permanent decline. The CBR then dropped in the late nineteenth
century, and the country moved on to stage 3 (Figure 2-23).
Since the 1970s the CBR and the CDR have been roughly
equal, at around 10–12 per year. The country has reached
ZPG, and the population is increasing almost entirely
because of immigration.
Denmark’s population pyramid shows the impact of the
demographic transition. Instead of a classic pyramid shape,
Denmark has a column, demonstrating that the percentages of
young and elderly people are nearly the same. With further
medical advances, the number of elderly people may actually
exceed the number of young people in a few years.
Denmark’s CDR has actually increased somewhat in recent
years because of the increasing number of elderly people. The
CDR is unlikely to decline unless another medical revolution,
such as a cure for cancer, keeps older elderly people alive much
longer (see the Global Forces, Local Impacts box).
Demographic Transition and
World Population Growth
Worldwide population increased rapidly during the second half
of the twentieth century because few countries were in the two
stages of the demographic transition that have low population
growth—no country remains in stage 1, and few have reached
stage 4. The overwhelming majority of countries are in either
stage 2 or stage 3 of the demographic transition—stages with
rapid population growth—and only a few are likely to reach
stage 4 in the near future.
The four-stage demographic transition is characterized by
two big breaks with the past. The first break—the sudden
drop in the death rate that comes from technological innovation—has been accomplished everywhere. The second
break—the sudden drop in the birth rate that comes from
changing social customs—has yet to be achieved in many
countries.
GLOBAL FORCES, LOCAL IMPACTS
Japan’s Population Decline
Japan is the most populous country
outside Europe and North America to
reach stage 4 of the demographic
transition. Japan has a NIR of approximately zero because crude birth and
death rates are nearly equal. Its TFR of
1.4 is well below the replacement rate of
approximately 2.1.
Japan’s population is expected to
decline from an all-time peak of 128 million in 2006 to 119 million in 2025 and
95 million in 2050 (Figure 2-24). With
the population decline will come an
increasing percentage of elderly people.
Japan’s current percentage of persons
over age 65—22 percent—is higher than
in any other country, and nearly double
the percentage under age 15.
Unlike Japan, the United States is
expecting an increase in population during the twenty-first century. A low NIR in
the United States will probably be offset by
large-scale immigration from countries in
Latin America and Asia still in stage 2 or 3
(see Chapter 3). Japan, on the other hand,
has discouraged immigration from nearby
countries in Asia. Japanese society, having
placed a high value on social conformity
for thousands of years, does not welcome
outsiders from other cultural traditions.
With few immigrants compared to
other stage 4 societies, Japan faces a severe
shortage of workers. Rather than increasing immigration, Japan is addressing the
labor force shortage primarily by encouraging more Japanese people to work, espe-
cially older people and women. Programs
make it more attractive for older people to
continue working, to receive more healthcare services at home instead of in hospitals, and to borrow against the value of
their homes to pay for health care.
In the long run, more women in the
labor force may translate into an even
lower birth rate and therefore an even
lower NIR in the future. Rather than
combine work with child rearing, Japanese women are expected to make a stark
choice: either marry and raise children or
remain single and work. According to
the 2005 census, the majority has chosen
the work option: More than half of
women in the prime childbearing years
of 20 to 34 are not married. ■
90
90
90
80
80
80
70
70
70
60
60
60
50
50
50
40
40
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
10
10
10
0
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
%
Male
Female
1950
0
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
%
Male
Female
0
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
%
Male
Female
2009
2050
FIGURE 2-24 Japan’s changing population pyramid. Japan’s population pyramid has shifting from a broad base in
1950 to a rectangular shape. In the future, the bottom of the pyramid is expected to contract and the top to expand.
If most countries in Europe and North America have
reached—or at least are approaching—stage 4 of the demographic transition, why aren’t countries elsewhere in the world?
The answer is that fundamental problems prevent other countries
from replicating the experience in Europe and North America.
The first demographic change—the sudden decline in CDR—
occurred for different reasons in the past. The nineteenth-century
decline in the CDR in Europe and North America took place in
conjunction with the Industrial Revolution. The unprecedented
level of wealth generated by the Industrial Revolution was used in
part to stimulate research by European and North American scientists into the causes and cures for diseases. These studies ultimately led to medical advances, such as pasteurization, X-rays,
penicillin, and insecticides.
65
66
The Cultural Landscape
In contrast, the sudden drop in the CDR in Africa, Asia,
and Latin America in the twentieth century was accomplished by different means and with less internal effort by
local citizens. For example, the CDR on the island of Sri
Lanka (then known as Ceylon) plummeted 43 percent
between 1946 and 1947. The most important reason for the
sharp drop was the use of the insecticide DDT to control the
mosquitoes that spread malaria. European and North American countries invented and manufactured the DDT and
trained the experts to supervise its use. The spraying of Sri
Lankans’ houses and other medical services, which cost only
$2 per person per year, were paid for primarily by international organizations.
Thus Sri Lanka’s CDR was reduced by nearly one-half in a
single year with no change in the country’s economy or culture.
Medical technology was injected from Europe and North
America instead of arising within the country as part of an economic revolution. This pattern has been repeated throughout
Latin America, Asia, and Africa.
Having caused the first break with the past through diffusion of medical technology, European and North American
countries now urge other countries to complete the second
break with the past—the reduction in the birth rate. However,
reducing the CBR is more difficult. A decline in the CDR can be
induced through introduction of new technology by outsiders,
but the CBR will drop only when people decide for themselves
to have fewer children. Many LDCs, especially in Asia and
Latin America, have moved in recent years to stage 3 of the
demographic transition thanks to rapidly declining birth rates.
Other countries, especially in Africa, have not yet made this
second break with the past and in some cases may be slipping
back into stage 1.
In the past, stage 2 of the demographic transition lasted
for approximately 100 years in Europe and North America,
but today’s stage 2 countries are being asked to move through
to stage 3 in much less time in order to curtail population
growth. When European and North American countries
were in stage 2, the global population was increasing by
only about 6 million per year, compared to 80 million per
year now.
KEY ISSUE 4
Why Might the World
Face an Overpopulation
Problem?
■
■
■
Malthus On Overpopulation
Declining Birth Rates
World Health Threats
Why does global population growth matter? In view of
the current size of Earth’s population and the NIR, will
there soon be too many of us? Will continued population
growth lead to global starvation, war, and a lower quality
of life?
Geographers are particularly well suited to address
these questions because answers require understanding
both human behavior and the physical environment.
Further, geographers observe that diverse local cultural and
environmental conditions may produce different answers in
different places. ■
16
14
Population (billions)
Malthus on
Overpopulation
Population
Resources
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
Year
FIGURE 2-25 Malthus’s theory. Malthus expected population to grow more rapidly than food production.
English economist Thomas Malthus
(1766–1834) was one of the first to
argue that the world’s rate of population
increase was far outrunning the development of food supplies. In An Essay on the
Principle of Population, published in
1798, Malthus claimed that the population was growing much more rapidly
than Earth’s food supply because population increased geometrically, whereas
food supply increased arithmetically
(Figure 2-25).
According to Malthus, these growth rates
would produce the following relationships
between people and food in the future: