Talknice Saungweme, Mufaro. A. Matandare, Int.J.Eco. Res., 2014, v5i5, 50 - 59
ISSN: 2229-6158
AGRICULTURAL EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN
ZIMBABWE (1980-2005)
Talknice Saungweme
Great Zimbabwe University, Zimbabwe
P. O. Box 1235, Masvingo
E-mail: [email protected]
Mufaro. A. Matandare
BA ISAGO University College, Botswana
Email: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
This paper seeks to test the general notion that agriculture is the backbone of the Zimbabwean economy. In this
respect, the study will look at the effects of central government’s expenditure towards the agricultural sector
and the subsequent effect of this on economic activities. Zimbabwe, like many other world countries, has
supported the agricultural sector given its positive forward and backward linkages with other economic sectors.
When Zimbabwe got its independence in 1980, it inherited a heavily government backed agricultural sector
from the Smith Administration. The results of this study indicate that increased agriculture expenditure before
2000 has boosted production in the sector and strengthened forward and backward economic linkages.
However, the land reform programme of 2000 and subsequent reduction in sound government support to the
sector contributed immensely to the economic crises in Zimbabwe. This paper recommends effective government
support to the agricultural sector through credible productive policies and financial & non-financial resources.
KEY WORDS
Agriculture expenditure, economic performance
1.0 Introduction
Zimbabwe in 1980, when it became
independent from British rule, inherited a
developed and predominantly white
controlled economy. The country was still
under the 1965 economic and political
international sanctions imposed against the
Unilateral Declaration of Independence
(UDI) government, headed by Ian Smith.
The government of Smith had, as such,
instituted policies that promote self
sufficiency and economic independence.
Henceforth, the new black government of
Zimbabwe adopted the previous regime’s
economic policies that supported a
dualistic economy; the agricultural and
industrial sectors. The agricultural sector
was heavily supported by the central
government,
financially,
investment,
production and marketing of sector output.
It is upon this aforementioned background
that this research paper wishes to
investigate the effects of central
government agricultural expenditure on
economic growth for the period 1980 to
2005.
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1.1 Background of this study
In Zimbabwe, and most developing
countries, agriculture is the backbone of
economic growth and development. The
agricultural sector is the main source
livelihood and has got strong forward
linkages with other economic sectors.
More importantly, the agricultural sector
and related activities accounts for over
70% of formal employment in Zimbabwe.
Related agricultural activities include trade
and investment opportunities in processing
of this sector’s output. In addition, the
export of agricultural output constitutes the
major source of export revenue in
Zimbabwe. Major export crops in
Zimbabwe (that is tobacco and cotton) and
horticultural produce (flowers, fruits)
accounted for over 60% of export receipts
annually.
1.2 An overview of the Agricultural
sector performance and economic
contribution in Zimbabwe
The performance of the agricultural sector
in Zimbabwe is closely linked to poverty
alleviation, creation of employment and
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Talknice Saungweme, Mufaro. A. Matandare, Int.J.Eco. Res., 2014, v5i5, 50 - 59
generation of national income. The sector
employs over seventy percent of the
economically active population and over
60% of its output is absorbed by the
manufacturing sector. The 40% output
balance is either consumed or exported in
its natural form. More so, the sector’s
contribution to export proceeds makes it
key to economic performance and general
livelihood of the Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe follows a dualistic agricultural
system, which it inherited from the British
rule. That is, it has predominantly
commercial and communal farming. The
commercial sector is pre-dominated by
large and medium-scale farms and the
major driving force is to make profit. In
this sector, land is privately owned, in the
form of leases, and 100% of the output
goes to the market. With communal
farming, land is collectively owned and
much of the production is for family
consumption with surplus sold to generate
income.
Exports of Zimbabwe are largely
commodities; unmanufactured output.
These include unprocessed agriculture
output, raw minerals and low value-added
manufactured goods. The relationship
between the agricultural sector and other
economic sectors, such as, manufacturing,
mining and service sectors is strictly
interwoven. As a result, policies and
factors that affect the agricultural sector
will have a direct bearing on the forward
chain. For instance, the adverse weather
conditions (resulting in droughts) over the
periods 1982, 1992 and 2002 were
reflected in low economic output (measure
by gross domestic product).
Having realized the critical contribution of
the agricultural sector to general economic
growth and human development, the
government of Zimbabwe prioritized the
funding and investment in this sector.
These activities include the formation and
capitalization of agricultural colleges, such
Gwebi Agricultural College; and high
budget allocation to the sector for the
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ISSN: 2229-6158
purchase of inputs and equipment. The
irrigation schemes were partially boosted,
a few dams were constructed and
communal
farmers
were
allocated
Extension Agricultural workers. These
measures by the government boosted
agricultural output and the general welfare
of communities until 1999.
By end of 1999, the government of
Zimbabwe embarked on an agrarian
reform program that adversely affected the
sector’s performance. The positive result
of such a move by the government was the
redistribution
of
land
to
black
Zimbabweans. Previously peasant farmers
were awarded an opportunity to venture
into profitable commercial and A2 farming
activities. However, the short run effect
was a drastic fall in both agricultural and
industrial output and soaring of
unemployment figures. The success of the
agrarian reform, therefore, is an area that
needs further research. This positive
movement in agricultural performance and
national output in Zimbabwe thus requires
an economic and empirical analysis.
Table 1: Performance of the economy
Year GDP
growth
rate
Agriculture
growth
rate
ManInfla
ufact-tion
uring
growth
rate
1980 10.6
19.5
14.7
5.4
1982 2.6
14.9
7.7
10.6
1984 -1.9
9.2
4.5
20.2
1986 2.1
-8.2
3.1
14.3
1988 7.6
3.2
5.3
7.4
1990 7.0
12.1
5.9
17.4
1992 -9.0
-23.2
8.5
42.1
1994 6.8
7.3
10.0
22.3
1996 7.3
21.4
4.0
21.4
1998 -0.9
2.3
3.4
34.5
2000 -6.4
3.2
2.5
55.9
2002 -4.8
-22.7
1.2
133.2
2004 -2.5
7.0
-9.5
382.0
Source: CSO Statistical (Various)
Yearbooks, MCF (2005).
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Talknice Saungweme, Mufaro. A. Matandare, Int.J.Eco. Res., 2014, v5i5, 50 - 59
The table above shows a decline in
economic performance in Zimbabwe
especially after the turn of the new
millennium. Interesting to note in table 1
above, is the abrupt decline in GDP
growth rate in 2000. From this year, 2000,
unemployment rate increased, production
capacities decreased and inflation soared.
The contribution of agriculture and
forestry to gross domestic product (GDP)
fluctuated between eight and twenty three
percent during the period 1980 and 2005
as can be seen in figure 1 above. These
fluctuations, firstly, are a reflection of
changes in government policies and
activities, coupled with rainfall variations.
Secondly, adverse movements in world
commodity prices, especially agricultural
and mining produce, have negatively
impacted on the sector’s contribution to
the national output.
1.3 A snapshot of Agricultural crops
and regions in Zimbabwe
Table 2 below gives a summary of major
crops grown in Zimbabwe by purpose,
which is food security and export revenue.
Table 2: Summary of crops grown in
Zimbabwe by purpose
Food security
Maize
Wheat
Potatoes
Soya
Fruits and vegetables
Bananas
Groundnuts
Sorghum / Millet
Barley
Sugar cane
Citrus
Tea / Coffee
Foreign
exchange
Tobacco
Cotton
Fruits
and
vegetables
Bananas
Ground nuts
Paprika
Sugar cane
Citrus
Tea /Coffee
Beef / Chicken
Flowers
Potatoes
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Zimbabwe is divided into five natural
regions on the basis of soil type, rainfall
received and other climatic factors. The
first three regions are suitable for intensive
crop and livestock production, whereas the
remaining two offer limited scope for
farming activities. Thus natural regions 4
and 5 are usually associated with cattle
ranching and game1.
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Theoretical literature review
The Schultz high-payoff input theory
After observing years of poor results from
attempts to transfer the highly productive
agricultural technology of advanced
nations to poor nations based on the
diffusion model, T. W. Schultz (1964)
pointed out that:
There are very few reproducible
agricultural
factors
in
technically
advanced countries that are ready made
for most poor communities. In general,
what is available is a body of useful
knowledge that has made it possible for
the advanced countries to produce, for
their own use, factors that are
technologically superior to those employed
elsewhere. This body of knowledge can be
used to develop similar, and as a rule
superior, new factors appropriate to the
biological and other conditions that are
specific to the agriculture of poor
communities. This can only be possible
through increased agriculture expenditure
that facilitates research and development
especially technological, (p147).
Schultz focused on two central themes,
that is investments in agricultural
technology development and investments
in human capacity. In the former, Schultz
focused on how to create and provide
farmers
with
new
higher-payoff
technology embodied in capital equipment
1
CSO. (2000). Compendium of Statistics,
Zimbabwe.
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and other inputs, whilst in the latter he was
concerned with labour productivity.
some point the supply curve ceases to be
completely elastic as it begins to rise.
Kuznets’ theory
Kuznets S (1961) summarised the
importance of agriculture expenditure to a
developing nation. According to Kuznets,
agriculture expenditure makes a direct
contribution to growth of national product
by increasing the total product. Kuznets
proposes three interrelated aspects of
economic growth as propelled by
agriculture expenditure. An increase in
total and per capita product, an increase in
domestic and international flow of goods
and services and rapid shifts in the
structure of an economy with prolonged
and sustained economic growth.
2.2 Empirical literature review
The Lewis model
The Lewis model is a structural change
model that explains how labour transfers in
a dual economy from areas with surplus to
where it is needed and describes the
process of industrialisation. For Lewis
growth of the industrial sector drives
economic growth. The Lewis model argues
economic growth requires structural
change in the economy whereby surplus
labour in traditional agriculture sector with
low or zero marginal product, migrate to
the modern industrial sector where there is
high rising marginal product. Transferring
surplus labour from rural to urban areas
has no effect on agricultural productivity
of rural workers is zero.
Fei-Ranis (1961)
The Fei-Ranis model demonstrates that
development of the economy is through
both the industrial sector as well as the
agricultural sector. Initially there is
transfer of surplus labour from the
agricultural to the modern sector, which
would facilitate an economy, to be fully
commercialised. Fei and Ranis assumed
that the level of wages is fixed by
institutional factors. Growth takes place
through reinvestment of profits in both the
industrial and agricultural sector. Beyond
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Kawagoe et al (1985) compares estimated
Cobb-Douglas coefficients from studies
that estimated separate equations for
developed countries and developing
countries. Kawagoe, Hayami and Ruttan
investigated effects of investments in
agriculture to agricultural productivity and
economic growth. They split their sample
of forty-three countries into twenty one
developed countries and twenty two less
developed countries. They found all the
convectional variables as well as technical
education to be important in explaining
output levels for the developed countries.
For the less developed countries, land and
fertiliser were not found to be significant
explanatory variables, but livestock was
more important when compared to the
developed countries.
Fan S et al (2000) using state level data for
1970 – 1993, developed a simultaneous
equation model to estimate the direct and
indirect effects of different types of
government expenditure on rural poverty
and growth in India. Agriculture growth
and food price changes were identified as
important contributing factors to the
decline in rural poverty in the areas around
Saith, Ahluwalia, Srinivasan, Ghose,
Gaiha, Bell and Rich. The primary purpose
of the study was to investigate the causes
of the decline rural poverty in India and
particularly to determine the role that
government investment have played, using
a pooled time-series, cross state data set.
Gunning (1997)’s empirical results of
econometric investigation of five SubSaharan African countries showed that
there is statistical evidence of a long-term
relationship
between
agriculture
expenditure and economic growth.
Gunning concluded that agriculture
expenditure has a positive impact on
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Talknice Saungweme, Mufaro. A. Matandare, Int.J.Eco. Res., 2014, v5i5, 50 - 59
economic growth and emphasised that for
developing countries to develop and foster
economic growth, there is need for
increasing agriculture expenditure which
facilitates investments on agriculture
technology
which
would
increase
agricultural productivity thus output and
help boost economic growth and
development.
Ajao O. A (2000) of the Agriculture
Economics and Extension Department in
Nigeria carried out a study examining
effects of agricultural productivity, due to
increased agriculture expenditure, on
economic growth for Sub-Saharan African
countries in the context of diverse
institutional arrangements using data
envelopment analysis method. Time series
data for a thirty year period (1970-1999)
which consisted of information on
agriculture production and means of
production such as records of agriculture
production, rural population and number of
tractors in use, fertiliser use, agricultural
areas as well as gross domestic product
was used. A decomposition of total factor
productivity measure revealed that
agriculture
expenditure
facilitates
technological change and have got a
positive impact on economic growth and
development which leads to reduction of
poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries.
3.0 Methodological framework
Most empirical studies have found
agricultural performance as a key to
economic growth. Other factors that play a
crucial role in economic growth of a
country include exports, money supply,
gross investment, government policies and
external factors, such as global financial
crises. The model to be used in this study
is an extension of the work based on both
the theoretical and empirical literature and
specifically to meet the conditions in
Zimbabwe.
3.1 Model specification:This research will
estimate the following model:
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GDP* =  0* + 1 AGRICEXP* +  2
EXPO*
+  3 MSS*
+  4 GVTEXP*
+  5 SUBS* +  6 DD*+ 
Where; GDP is the Gross Domestic
Product
AGRICEXP is agricultural expenditure
EXPO is agriculture exports
MSS is money supply
GVTEXP represents total government
expenditure (less agriculture expenditure)
µ is the stochastic error term
SUBS is subsidies to the agriculture sector
from the central bank
DD is the dummy for drought
The variables with asterisks are the
transformed logged variables, that is, each
of the above variables are in logarithms (as
captured by *). Logarithms help to solve
the problem of heteroscedasticity and
coefficients obtained in the estimated
results can be readily read as
elasticities.  0 , 1 ,  2 ,  3 ,  4 ,  5
and  6
are the coefficients to be estimated.
3.2 Expected signs
 0 >0, 1 >0,  2 >0,  3 < 0,  4 >0,  5 > 0
and  6 <0
3.3 Justification of variables in the
model
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is being
used as a proxy variable for economic
activity between 1980 and 2005. This
variable captures also domestic productive
capacity.
Agriculture Expenditure
Agriculture expenditure is the major of
interest in this study and is included to
ascertain between it and GDP. Schultz
(1978) found a positive relationship
between economic performance and
agriculture expenditure, suggesting that
higher agriculture expenditure implies a
brighter prospect in the host economy.
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Talknice Saungweme, Mufaro. A. Matandare, Int.J.Eco. Res., 2014, v5i5, 50 - 59
Agricultural Exports
Agricultural exports seek to measure
external factors to the Zimbabwean
economy. Agricultural exports constitutes
over 60% of Zimbabwean exports, hence,
chances in trade policies, practises and
movements in exchange rates will have a
direct implication on the agricultural sector
and the economy at large.
Money supply
Effects of money supply are transmitted to
economic activity through interest rates
and inflation.
Subsidies
Subsidies are included in the model to
capture government intervention activities
in the agricultural sector.
Dummy for drought
Since Zimbabwe experienced several years
of drought for the period under review, a
dummy will be included to take into
consideration such natural adverse
conditions.
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The error term
The error term shows the impact of other
variables not included in the model that
affect GDP.
3.4 Sources of data
This research will make use of annual time
series data from the Central Statistical
Office (CSO), Ministry of Finance,
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), World
Bank country database, and African
Development Bank country statistics.
3.5 Estimations and interpretation of
Results
The data used in this research was first
tested for stationarity using the Augmented
Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron
(PP) tests. All econometric tests in this
study were done using E-views 3.1
statistical package. Table 3 below gives
the result output of the estimated model
specified above (in 3.1).
Table 3: Ordinary Least Square Results
Dependent Variable: LGDP
Method: Least Squares
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
C
LAGRICEXP
LEXPO
LMSS
LGVT EXP
LSUBS
DD
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.172585 2.382088**
0.036680 6.486057*
0.110511 0.608969
0.134243 -4.059427*
0.163414 2.081265**
0.016342 1.891948
0.073123 -1.916367**
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.411113
0.237932
0.067008
-0.544951
0.340108
0.030919
-0.067008
0.797293
0.726616
0.144805
0.419370
16.75988
1.892995
t-Statistic
Prob.
0.0029
0.0091
0.1194
0.0006
0.0505
0.0731
0.1370
11.14480
2.489159
-0.827683
0.537353
173.4341
0.000000
* Significant at 5% and ** 10% significance level respectively.
In table 3 above, the coefficients of
agriculture
expenditure,
agriculture
exports, government expenditure and
agriculture subsidies carry positive signs
as predicted by economic theory.
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Agriculture expenditure variable is
statistically significant at 1% level of
significance and is positive. Note that, a
1% increase in agriculture expenditure will
boost, ceteris paribus, national output
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(gross domestic product) by 0.24%. These
results substantiate the existence of a
positive connection between agriculture
expenditure and economic growth in
Zimbabwe. Although agriculture exports
variable has a positive relationship with
economic growth it is not significant. This
outcome calls for further analysis but
quickly suggestions are that of probably
restrictions placed on local agricultural
commodities by other countries and also
the fact that Zimbabwe exports
unmanufactured agricultural output which
fetch lower prices on international
markets.
agriculture expenditure on Zimbabwe’s
economic growth provides a basis for
sound
policy
formulation
and
implementation by responsible authorities.
The support of the government, financial
and otherwise, on the agricultural sector
has a strong economic bearing on the
overall performance of the economy
through forward and backward linkages,
volume and value of exports. Thus, an
increase in agricultural expenditure that is
put into production activities will be
directly transmitted into increased
industrial activities and hence national
output, revenue and employment.
A money supply variable is negatively
signed and significant at 5% level of
significance implying that money supply,
which in not in tandem with economic
growth, will adversely affect economic
growth.
The subsidies coefficient,
although it carries the expected positive
sign, it is marginally insignificant. The
coefficient of dummy for drought variable
is significant at 10% level of significance
and negatively signed indicating the
adverse effects of natural catastrophes on
economic performance. The dummy is also
exposing the depressing impact on output
caused by the government’s fast tract land
reform programme.
The research also highlighted the influence
of political actions on economic activities,
first to the agricultural sector and second
to other economic sectors. Investment in
the agricultural sector is pertinent to curb
challenges of unforeseen adverse natural
conditions, like droughts.
Estimation results show that there is no
autocorrelation (Durbin Watson statistic =
1.892995) and that the model is correctly
specified (adjusted R-squared = 0.726616);
that is about 73% of variations in GDP are
captured by the exogenous variables in the
model.
4.0 Conclusion and Recommendations
The main objective of this paper was to
assess the effects of agriculture
expenditure on economic growth in
Zimbabwe. The study supported the
hypothesis that the agriculture sector is
vital in stimulating and promoting
sustainable
economic
growth
in
Zimbabwe. The positive impact of
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