Location Profile: Projected Warming Trend
This report contains climate warming projections for national capitals according to the new
NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset (NEX-GDDP, 2015),
which is derived from the runs of 21 advanced Global Climate Models under two greenhouse
gas emissions scenarios and used to support the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.
This dataset has been widely used for studies of climate change impacts and increasing public
understanding of a rapidly warming climate. Here we present the average daily max and min
temperature projections (by year) based on eight of those global models that are independently
developed in Australia, North America, Europe and Asia. While there are variabilities from
different models and their associated settings, it is important to observe consistent warming
TRENDS for the same location across all models, and ponder their implications for business
and planning.
Location - National Capital
Capital City: San Jose
Country: COSTA RICA
Representative location (longitude, latitude): -84.077446, 9.930375 (in Google Maps)
Report Developer: BigData Earth Pty Ltd
Report Date: Thursday, November 3, 2016
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 1
CSIRO-MK3.6.0: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
36
35
34
33
32
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +3.2 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +5.8 °C
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
Climate model: CSIRO-MK3.6.0
24
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
CSIRO-MK3.6.0: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
24
23
22
21
20
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +2.8 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +5.5 °C
19
18
17
16
15
14
Climate model: CSIRO-MK3.6.0
13
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
CSIRO-MK3.6.0 climate model is developed by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (Melbourne, Australia)
in collaboration with the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (Brisbane, Australia).
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 2
ACCESS1.0: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
36
35
34
33
32
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +2.2 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +5.3 °C
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
Climate model: ACCESS1.0
24
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
ACCESS1.0: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
24
23
22
21
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +2.5 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +4.6 °C
20
19
18
17
16
15
Climate model: ACCESS1.0
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
ACCESS1.0 climate model is developed by CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, Australia) and BOM (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia).
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 3
GFDL-CM3: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
35
34
33
32
31
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +2.5 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +4.9 °C
30
29
28
27
26
25
Climate model: GFDL-CM3
24
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
GFDL-CM3: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
23
22
21
20
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +2.2 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +4.7 °C
19
18
17
16
15
14
Climate model: GFDL-CM3
13
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
GFDL-CM3 climate model is developed by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, NJ, USA).
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 4
CCSM4: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.3 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.2 °C
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0
Climate model: CCSM4
24.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
CCSM4: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.1 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +2.6 °C
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
Climate model: CCSM4
14.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
CCSM4 climate model is developed by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR (Boulder, CO,
USA).
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 5
CNRM-CM5: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.4 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.1 °C
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
Climate model: CNRM-CM5
25.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
CNRM-CM5: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
21.0
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.5 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.5 °C
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
Climate model: CNRM-CM5
14.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
CNRM-CM5 climate model is developed by CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, MeteoFrance, Toulouse, France) and CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul
Scientifique, Toulouse, France).
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 6
MPI-ESM-MR: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
35
34
33
32
31
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.3 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +4.0 °C
30
29
28
27
26
25
Climate model: MPI-ESM-MR
24
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
MPI-ESM-MR: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
24
23
22
21
20
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.3 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.7 °C
19
18
17
16
15
14
Climate model: MPI-ESM-MR
13
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
MPI-ESM-MR climate model is developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Hamburg,
Germany.
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 7
BNU-ESM: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
33.0
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.2 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.5 °C
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
Climate model: BNU-ESM
25.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
BNU-ESM: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
22
21
20
19
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.4 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.7 °C
18
17
16
15
Climate model: BNU-ESM
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
BNU-ESM (Earth System Model) is developed by the College of Global Change and Earth System Science
(GCESS), Beijing Normal University, China.
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 8
MIROC5: Average Daily Max Surface Temperature
Average Daily Maximum Surface Temperature
33
32
31
30
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Max surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.5 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.3 °C
29
28
27
26
25
Climate model: MIROC5
24
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
MIROC5: Average Daily Min Surface Temperature
Average Daily Minimum Surface Temperature
22
21
20
19
Historical (Modelled, i.e. hindcast)
Scenario RCP4.5 (GHG emissions stabilised, i.e. peak around 2040 then decline) & trend line
Scenario RCP8.5 (GHG emissions kept increasing over time, business-as-usual) & trend line
For location within ~12.5 km of longitude & latitude (-84.125, 9.875), projected increase of
average daily Min surface temperature (by year) from 2006 to 2100:
under Scenario RCP4.5: +1.7 °C
under Scenario RCP8.5: +3.7 °C
18
17
16
15
Climate model: MIROC5
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate) is developed by the Atmosphere and Ocean Research
Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology. For MIROC5, Year 2100 data are missing and Year 2099 data were used as a surrogate
for Year 2100 in graphs.
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 9
Acknowledgements
This report contains analyses, maps and charts based on open data sources from government agencies:
1. Climate Data - Climate scenarios used were from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics
Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for
Climate Simulation (NCCS). Raw data and technical notes can be accessed at https://cds.nccs.nasa.gov/nex-gddp/
This report provides some accessible information on climate warming projections using the 2015 NASA NEX-GDDP
dataset. A warming climate has significant adverse impact on the occurrence, intensity, frequency and duration of
those natural hazards such as heatwaves, bushfires and drought, which are directly driven by high surface
temperatures. For users wishing to learn more on climate change and its impact, please check the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) website - https://www.ipcc.ch/
If you use this warming trend report for your project, please cite the following:
BigData Earth Pty Ltd, 2016. Projected Climate Warming Trend for National Capitals of the World: An Analysis of
the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Dataset (NEX-GDDP, 2015). Available at
http://www.BigDataEarth.com/
Disclaimer
The data and information contained in this report has been analysed and presented with all due care, however,
BigData Earth Pty Ltd (BigData Earth) does not warrant or represent that the data and information contained herein
is free from errors or omissions, or that it is exhaustive. This report is distributed AS IS, with no warranties of any
kind, whether expressed or implied, including without limitation, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for
a particular purpose, and non-infringement. No oral or written information, advices or services given by BigData
Earth shall create a warranty or in any way increase the scope of any warranty provided herein.
You understand and expressly agree that the use of the report is at your sole risk. Under no circumstances,
including without limitation the negligence of any party, shall BigData Earth be liable for any direct, indirect,
incidental, special, consequential or other damages under any theory of law (including but not limited to, damages
for economic loss, loss of profits, goodwill, revenue and anticipated savings, interruption of business activity, or loss
of business information) arising out of the use or inability to use the report, whether or not such loss or damage was
foreseeable and even if BigData Earth shall have been advised of the possibility of such loss or damages. You
agree not to use the report in any state or country that does not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for
indirect, incidental or consequential damages.
There are links to the data sources used. Neither these sites nor the agencies or companies they belong to are
operated or controlled by BigData Earth, and BigData Earth makes no representations about the information,
products, or services provided in these sites. You should research and assess the risks which may be involved.
BigData Earth shall have no liability thereof.
BigData Earth reserves the right to vary, without notice, any information and policy presented.
© 2016 www.BigDataEarth.com
Page: 10