S P & A 0144 – 5596 V. 37, No. 7, DECEMBER 2003, . 709 – 724 Original Article Blackwell Oxford, Social SPOL © December Blackwell – Policy UK Publishing Publishing & Administration LtdLtd. The “Employment-first” Welfare State: Lessons from the New Deal for Young People Dan Finn Abstract New Labour is constructing an “employment-first” welfare state. It plans through Jobcentre Plus to transform the passive culture of the benefit system by creating more explicit links between individual behaviour and engagement with labour market programmes. The New Deal for Young People (NDYP) has been at the forefront of these changes. This paper reports on the findings from four case studies that explored how the NDYP has changed young people’s experience of the welfare state. It establishes that NDYP offers a mixture of employment assistance and “pressure” and has made progress in developing front-line services and helping young long-term unemployed people into work. NDYP does not, however, work for all. In areas of high unemployment and for some disadvantaged groups intermediate labour markets could enhance the New Deal and make real the offer of “employment opportunities for all”. Keywords Young people; Employment; Welfare state; New Labour policies Introduction Britain’s Labour government is constructing an “employment-first” welfare state (DfEE ). A new agenda of “rights and responsibilities” brings more explicit links between individual behaviour, benefit entitlement and engagement with the labour market. The first phase of New Labour’s welfare reform ( until ) witnessed the introduction of New Deal employment programmes alongside tax and benefit changes aimed at “making work pay”. A second phase, outlined in a Green Paper, linked welfare reform with restoring full employment. The prime minister announced a “historic opportunity” to build on “economic stability and reform of the welfare state” to secure “employment opportunities for all”—New Labour’s “modern” definition of full employment (DfEE : vi). Address for correspondence: Professor Dan Finn, School of Social, Historical and Literary Studies, University of Portsmouth, Milldam, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO AS. E-mail: [email protected] © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. , Garsington Road, Oxford OX DQ , UK and Main Street, Malden, MA , USA Following the election victory the government set targets to increase employment rates, reduce child poverty and tackle social exclusion. Key policy developments have included increases in cash benefits for children; the extension of tax credits that now cover low-paid workers without children; the intensification of New Deal programmes; and the introduction of mandatory “work-focused interviews” for working-age benefit claimants. Welfare reform has been accompanied by institutional change. A Department of Work and Pensions has been created and the Employment Service (ES) and Benefits Agency (BA) merged into “Jobcentre Plus”. By the new agency will integrate the work of nearly , staff, bringing together job-search support and benefit payments for over million people in a network of some , district and local offices. The agency has annual performance targets designed to ensure that it acts as an “enabler” for those without work, especially the most disadvantaged, while simultaneously “policing” the benefit system (Price ). The tensions in delivering this dual role are reinforced by the less explicit role that Jobcentre Plus plays in maintaining work incentives and labour discipline, albeit in a minimally reregulated labour market (King ). This strategy has proved controversial. There has been support for the ambition to sustain full employment, end long-term unemployment and tackle child poverty, but vigorous opposition to aspects of the “employmentfirst” strategy. Much of this opposition has been expressed by groups working within or reliant upon the most affected services (Taylor-Gooby ). Critics have questioned the equity, viability and limitations of the broad strategy, arguing that it places a disproportionate focus on improving employability and on paid employment being the primary route to social inclusion for all working-age people (Lister ; Williams ). This paper is concerned primarily with the impact of the “employmentfirst” strategy on the group that New Labour put at the forefront of its programme: the younger long-term unemployed. The lessons from the NDYP should, however, highlight the challenges facing New Labour’s overall strategy as the “employment-first” approach is extended to all those of working age who rely on the benefit system. The government has claimed much success for the NDYP and it has been the template for many of the other New Deal programmes delivered by Jobcentre Plus. Critics, however, have argued that the main impact of the programme has been to intensify the “stricter benefit regime”, introduced under the Conservatives, to put pressure on the unemployed to compete for low-paid jobs in a deregulated labour market (see, for example, Tonge ; Gray ). Others have argued that, in areas of low labour demand, the NDYP’s focus on improving employability will result in young people being “churned” through employment programmes and short-term jobs (Turok and Webster ). Some have even suggested that the programme may prove responsible for “driving young people out of the system” (Willets et al. : ). This paper assesses the validity of the arguments on both sides. Has New Labour largely consolidated the neo-liberal “workfare regime” that it inherited from the Conservatives (Peck ; Grover and Stewart ), or has it © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. started to deliver the “ethical employment policy” of which White suggested it was capable (White )? The paper draws on the results from the qualitative and quantitative official evaluations that have been published on the NDYP as it evolved during –. It draws most extensively, however, on the findings from four independent case studies carried out in different cities between and . Its objective is to assess the statistical “impacts” of the programme and to explore the ways in which the new welfare regime has reshaped the daily interactions between bureaucrats and citizens. New Labour, Full Employment and the Stricter Benefit Regime In the s, the leadership of the Labour Party changed its approach to unemployment and the welfare state. New Labour abandoned overt Keynesian demand management but rejected the neo-liberal views of the Conservatives. Instead, New Labour turned to the work of economists that challenged the view that the “NAIRU” (the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) had to be as high as it was in the UK. The new approach suggested that “supply-side” measures such as investment in human capital and labour market programmes could lower the NAIRU. The stricter job search regime introduced by the Conservatives was to be retained but was to be supplemented by a minimum wage and a “New Deal” for the long-term unemployed. This “synthesis” would require individuals to compete for and obtain jobs but also would invest in improving the “employability” of those furthest from the labour market. This increase in labour supply would, it was argued, allow the economy to operate at a higher level of overall employment and output without creating inflationary pressures (Layard et al. ). New Labour endorsed the obligations that had been imposed on the unemployed through the Jobseeker’s Allowance ( JSA), but if it was to deliver its own strategy it would have to counteract many other aspects of this “inheritance”. The “stricter benefit regime” of the Conservatives had helped to reduce long-term unemployment through its combination of stricter eligibility rules, six-monthly Restart interviews and compulsory jobsearch courses, but the legacy also included a front-line ES that was poorly regarded by staff and claimants alike. The target regime of the ES allowed little time for personal contact between the unemployed and advisers, and this was exacerbated by high staff turnover and large caseloads. The ES performance regime also encouraged staff to divert the long-term unemployed on to other benefits and to place claimants in any job, no matter how short-term (Price ). By the mid-s qualitative research revealed that many of the long-term unemployed and those working with them were cynical about “schemes” and perceived the ES as more concerned with “policing” the benefit system than with helping people into work (Blackmore ). The New Deals In a world of limited resources, Conservative spending plans, and four electoral defeats, New Labour’s programme was cautious and targeted. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The New Deal, though, was to be financed through the most overt redistribution of wealth in Labour’s first term in office. A £ billion “windfall tax” was levied on the profits of privatized utilities and the tax effectively paid for all the New Deal programmes between and (HM Treasury , table .). Priority was given to the young unemployed, with the incoming government pledged to finding jobs for , - to -year-olds out of work for over six months. This was followed by a range of other “New Deals” and by there were “New Deals” for long-term unemployed adults aged over , lone parents, disabled people, those aged over and the partners of unemployed people. Each New Deal addresses the particular problems of a specific group, but all have been based on the principles implemented first in the programme for young people—“more help, more choices, and the support of a Personal Adviser . . . matched by a greater responsibility on the part of individuals to help themselves” (DfEE , para. .). Despite the common framework, however, there remain significant differences in the level of resources allocated for each programme. Nearly per cent of the proceeds of the windfall tax was spent on mandatory New Deals for the long-term unemployed, whereas just under per cent was spent on the voluntary programmes aimed largely at lone parents and people with disabilities (HM Treasury , table .). These employment programmes have supplemented other, costlier parts of the strategy, especially the developing system of in-work tax credits and childcare provision. Rights and Responsibilities in the New Deal All unemployed young people claiming JSA for six months are now entitled to intensive employment assistance. Young people who face particular barriers, such as the young homeless, can opt to take advantage of this assistance from the onset of unemployment. The social contract offered by New Labour is one of employment-relevant, client-centred assistance but without an option of continuing, simply, to receive JSA. In practice, unemployed people who do not comply with JSA or New Deal requirements face sanctions that terminate all cash assistance. If an unemployed person is unavailable for work, fails to attend a meeting with their Adviser or to “sign on” without good cause, they lose their entitlement to benefit. Alternatively, an individual can lose cash assistance for up to weeks if they leave, are dismissed, or refuse a job without good cause. The penalties for not attending or being dismissed from an employment programme without good cause escalate from a two-week sanction, to four weeks for a second penalty, rising to weeks for the third instance of non-compliance. Specified groups can claim hardship payments and Housing and Council Tax benefit is only withdrawn for the first type of sanction. Participation in the New Deals for the registered unemployed commences with a “Gateway” process where a New Deal Personal Adviser (NDPA) tackles employment barriers and provides assistance with job search and careers guidance. This interview takes up to an hour and is followed by © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. regular contact with an NDPA. This contrasts with the “one-off ” - to minute Restart interview typically available under the stricter benefit regime. If a young unemployed person is unable to get an unsubsidized job during their time in the Gateway they must participate in a full-time employment or training option. This has included an Employment Option with a subsidized, waged job for six months with an employer; an Environmental Task Force (ETF ) or Voluntary Sector Option (VSO) that gives up to six months’ employment, and most participants are paid their benefit plus a small premium; and a Full-time Education and Training Option (FTET ) that may last for up to a year, mainly restricted to those who lack basic skills. All the options involve vocational training. Those who do not get a job after participation are entitled to “follow-through” support where NDPAs try to place them in unsubsidized jobs. Most of the young people engaged in the New Deal at any one time are in the “Gateway”. In March there were nearly , young people on the NDYP of whom just over per cent were in the Gateway; about a quarter were in options; and about per cent in “follow-through” (detailed New Deal statistics are published every quarter at http://www.dwp.gov.uk/ asd/ndyp.html). For long-term unemployed people over , a revamped New Deal was implemented in April guaranteeing them the right to intensive employment assistance after months’ unemployment. This New Deal was based on NDYP with an initial Gateway phase, followed by more intensive options and a follow-through. Long-term unemployed people aged up to must now participate or face the benefit sanction regime that applies to younger people. The “Front-line” Experience of the New Deal The “employment-first” welfare state aims to change the culture of Benefit Offices and Jobcentres. In Jobcentre Plus offices, all working-age claimants have access to personal advisers, with specialist New Deal advisers for the long-term unemployed and for those lone parents and people with disabilities who choose to enter the programme. The template for this “cultural revolution” has been both the NDYP and the programme for lone parents. The remainder of the paper draws on the findings from four research projects that explored the introduction of the NDYP and the extent to which the new approach had reshaped interactions between front-line staff and clients. The case studies were carried out in Manchester, Portsmouth, London and Coventry, between and . Two were independently funded and two were commissioned. Each involved interviews and focus groups with frontline advisers, providers and young unemployed people (Finn and Simmonds ; Finn and Blackmore ; CESI ; Perkins-Cohen ). There are, of course, significant differences between the case study areas. Those individuals interviewed were also not chosen randomly. In London, some young people were interviewed in the Gateway phase, but most of the interviews in each area were carried out with young people in the ETF and VSO. They were some of those facing the greatest employment barriers. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The Gateway, Job Aspirations and Matching The Gateway combination of advice, support and “pressure” has been seen as one of the most effective innovations in the programme (Millar ). It is the New Deal experience for the two-thirds of young people who leave the programme during this phase. The evaluation evidence shows a “carrot and stick” effect, with most young people intensifying job search as a result of increased motivation and new techniques, and others doing so in order either to avoid joining an option or benefit sanctions (Ritchie ). About one in ten young people never attend a first interview and about per cent of those who attend a first interview leave before entering an option. In the case study areas the front-line staff confirmed that the Gateway enabled NDPAs to offer advice and assistance unavailable under the previous regime. The NDPAs said they were able to provide individualized services for the young person such as identifying barriers to work, helping with applications, contacting employers and discussing employment goals. There was, however, evidence that NDPAs focused more on those deemed most “job-ready”. Many of the young people were appreciative of the support they were given—a finding reflected in national surveys (Hasluck ). Some complained, however, that they were being “pushed” into things. Others said there was little difference to “signing on”. For one young man “the only difference is that I go up two extra flights of stairs”. The aim of “joining up” NDYP with other services proved more difficult. In each of the areas NDPAs acknowledged problems in making successful referrals to other services needed by the most disadvantaged. In some cases local services were either unavailable or had long waiting lists. In other cases clients, and sometimes NDPAs, found it difficult to identify or tackle deepseated barriers, especially literacy, numeracy, health and behavioural problems. In all four areas the young people were clear that their aim from the New Deal was a “reasonable job”—generally defined as one that would offer employment security and opportunities for enhancing skills and earning power. They believed that they should be able to choose what work they did and should not be expected to take short-term “agency work” or any “crap” job: “No one at this table wants to work at McDonald’s, nobody here thinks ‘yes, I’d like a career at McDonald’s’ . . . If they were given the opportunity to do something in the areas that they want, then they’d take it . . . Give people the opportunity to do something they are really good at rather than a crap job—then there’d be a rush to get off the dole.” There was little evidence, however, that the young unemployed were being forced to take jobs. Most of the young people interviewed said that their advisers had taken their interests and career aims into account. While some had experienced “pressure” to consider jobs they did not want, most criticism centred on how they were forced to join an option as the Gateway progressed. Advisers seemed keen to place young people in their preferred jobs but were clear that not all clients could be so matched. A key part of their © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. task was to tackle expectations. The NDPAs aimed to persuade clients to expand the type of vacancies they would consider and to guide them on the importance of acquiring work experience to improve their employability. While advisers acknowledged putting “pressure” on some young people to take jobs that they did not want, they appreciated the limits to what they could achieve. Inappropriate matching or pressure could result in someone not turning up or leaving a job or option early. “Agency jobs”, which were abundant, were thought appropriate only in very limited circumstances. During the fieldwork period there was evidence that, as the programme moved from its innovative phase to more routinized implementation, it was losing some of its distinctive features. Advisers pointed to several trends: • they did not have enough time to do follow-up with clients placed in jobs or options; • too much time was absorbed by frequent changes in complex procedures and processes and by excessive paperwork; and • their caseloads were difficult to manage as they contained a greater proportion of clients with complex employment barriers. There was concern that the individual focus of the New Deal was giving way to an increased emphasis on placements, especially into unsubsidized jobs, driven by performance targets: “The message has changed now. We were trying to get at their issues, trying to understand their problems, build up the relationship, but that’s gone now. They just want them off the register.” (NDPA, London) The “Hardest to Place” and “Hard Core” Most young people entering NDYP leave quickly, mainly into jobs. According to NDPAs, there were two groups however, that did not make a rapid transition. One group, the “hardest to place”, often had employment barriers that could not be tackled during the Gateway phase and/or required other significant interventions. These included those clients without accommodation or those with debt or child support issues. There were those too with learning or behavioural problems: “We are not trained counsellors and we need to be for a lot of the people we see. We try but these people need specialist help and it isn’t always available locally.” (NDPA, Manchester) Another group were characterized as “hard-core”. A small but significant minority of clients were thought to be “working the system”. It was thought that these clients supplemented their income through hidden employment, “benefit-surfing”, and activities as diverse as “booze-running”, petty theft or “dealing”. Other “hard-core” clients came from “tough” estates or particular families where there was deep antipathy to “schemes”: © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. “Most of our time is taken up dealing with the per cent hard core who are deliberately finding ways to beat the system and avoid being put through the programme.” ( NDPA, Portsmouth) “Some of these clients are very wary; there is a lot of mistrust. The bulk of the problems now are because we are dealing with stock . . . Some of these people are second and third generation unemployed and there are entrenched attitudes. In some places there is a benefit mentality.” ( NDPA, Manchester) Notwithstanding the controversial sanctions regime associated with the NDYP, the advisers remained sceptical about its power to change the behaviour of the “hard core”. The Options: Employability or Work First The role of the options is to improve the employability of those young people who cannot obtain unsubsidized jobs. The evidence on New Deal employment subsidies supports their value as an “effective way” of getting (both young and old) New Deal clients into “sustainable employment” (Hasluck : ). The non-employer-based options have, however, been criticized for not securing the level of job entries expected, with fewer than one in five leavers going directly into a job. Providers attribute this to their clientele, who are significantly more disadvantaged than those who entered earlier programmes, and who had not been adequately prepared for work through the Gateway. Providers reported particular problems with young people who were unmotivated, lacked social skills, had turbulent personal lives, and found it difficult to work with others. Despite these problems, the providers interviewed were generally positive about the impact they could have through the New Deal: “A lot of these New Dealers come here with a history of failure—and we can turn them round . . . we can’t turn them all around, but we turn a good number around.” (ETF provider, Manchester) The young people endorsed the perceptions of the providers. Many of those on an option agreed that participation gave them routine, increased selfesteem and confidence, and hoped it would improve their job prospects. Levels of satisfaction were highest among those who were able to do something of interest to them. Those who were mandated to participate expressed most dissatisfaction. In Manchester, those required to participate were highly dissatisfied with carrying out unpleasant tasks (for example, washing floors in blocks of flats and picking up needles and nappies from the surrounding gardens). This group were highly negative: “New Deal is a training scandal—it’s a way of cutting down the numbers and getting you out of the way for six months . . . by that time other people are going to be slammed on it. It’s just a way of making the government look good . . . ‘Oh look what the government are doing. Look at our New Deal badges.’ ” © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Many providers expressed concern that their capacity to change such attitudes was undermined by pressures to boost their employment outcomes. Some were anxious that linking more of their funding to job entry would lead to encouraging young people to take less satisfactory jobs when they might gain more (in terms of longer-term employability) from longer on their option. Others believed that the job entry focus was devaluing their success in improving life skills and motivation: “What are the priorities of New Deal? It seems to be about targets for jobs and less about employability and a client-centred approach. The government needs to make up its mind. I’m getting mixed messages.” (VSO provider, Portsmouth) Advisers and option providers acknowledged that job entry was important, but emphasized that it should not be the only criterion on which their work is judged. They emphasized that some of the least employable young people made significant progress in the New Deal, without necessarily getting a job, and this had a social return as much as an economic one: “Sometimes it’s not the job that is the priority, because they’ve got so many other additional problems. For some it’s an achievement to get them to stay for the whole course . . . If you look at how poor their record was before they started, the fact that they’ve lasted six months or a year is a real achievement.” (FTET provider) “Jobs can’t be the only test. We have helped change people’s lives . . . It’s very, very difficult to show it. They might not move on into work but they’ve moved on. They’ve gained such a lot. They’ve got more confident. They are able to talk to other people. It’s that kind of thing, and I don’t think New Deal gets enough credit for that.” (ETF provider) The New Deal and Sanctions There has been concern about the impact of the New Deal sanctions regime. Initially NDYP operated within general JSA regulations but in March the regime intensified and after a “third offence” an individual may now have their benefit suspended for up to six months. The Social Security Advisory Committee (SSAC) expressed concern that although the severity of the sanction could be warranted for deliberately flouting the rules, it “might unintentionally penalize a higher than expected number of other groups who, for a mixture of social, educational or health reasons, were unable to comply with the requirements of New Deal Options” (quoted by Britton : ). It is difficult to measure the extent to which young people have been sanctioned through the New Deal, but one estimate suggests that some per cent of those called to attend may experience a benefit reduction during the Gateway phase (Gray : ). During the option phase the evidence on sanctions is clearer and the rate at which sanctions have been imposed has increased, with over , reported in the first quarter of (Bivand , table ). These sanctions, imposed for either failing to attend or leaving options without good cause, are experienced mainly by poorly © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. educated and less motivated young men with regard to participation in the ETF (Bonjour et al. : –). The number who experience a third sanction is small. Some of those affected quickly obtain a job but a followup survey found a minority of vulnerable young people, as predicted by SSAC, lost their benefits for six months (Saunders et al. ). Front-line experience from the case study areas portrays a more complex scene than that suggested by characterizations of an authoritarian regime. Among the young people themselves there was a range of responses to sanctions. Some resented their new responsibilities. Most, however, accepted that sanctions were justified either to put pressure on those not seeking work and /or to maintain discipline while participating in the programme. These comments were made by ETF participants, most of whom had been required to join the New Deal: “If you’re constantly unemployed they have got a right to push you.” “People should make the effort to work, not just sit around.” “Sanctions are a fair way of stopping people from messing around. You have to have something otherwise people would just stop whenever they felt like it.” Most of the NDPAs agreed that sanctions were necessary to test willingness to work and to convince young people that they should attend an option. They were, however, critical about the processes involved. In their view the regime was administratively complex, hard to implement, and generated a disproportionate amount of paperwork. The eventual outcome was often uncertain and, if a sanction was overturned, it damaged their credibility with the client. Even when a sanction was imposed many clients could fall back on family or friends or claim “hardship”, so, in their view, the penalty was minimal: “Frankly, sanctions don’t affect the hard core much because of hardship payments. Sanctions are more of an inconvenience than a deterrent—a slap on the wrist, and one that they seem to be able to accommodate quite comfortably.” ( NDPA, Portsmouth) This frustration with the sanctions regime was balanced by “front-line” concern with the negative impact a tougher regime could have: “I’m against imposing benefit sanctions because four months’ trust can go out the window . . . I would prefer to use more intensive help.” (NDPA, Manchester) Advisers also wanted discretion. They wanted to be able to extend the Gateway rather than require a client reluctantly to join an option. Others complained of an absence of suitable placements for the hardest to help. In their view sanctions were too blunt an instrument to deal with individuals with disruptive or chaotic lifestyles. There was a danger that the use of mandatory referrals merely shifted “problem cases” to option providers. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Other front-line providers warned that a harsher approach could impact most on those with disadvantages rather than on those who understood how to work the system. Some were concerned about stigmatizing young people who, given additional time and resources, could be “turned around”: “I’m not always sure that those branded as ‘hard core’ or ‘stroppy’ etc., haven’t got deep-rooted problems that could be sorted out given more time and support.” (Portsmouth voluntary sector provider) Unknown Destinations There has been considerable debate about the number of young people who leave NDYP to enter an “unknown destination”. A variety of administrative and other reasons account for the lack of information on the destination of at least one in four of those leaving the New Deal. This effect was not evaluated under the previous “stricter benefit regime” but concern about this group prompted a large-scale NDYP follow-up survey (O’Donnell ). The response rate was just below per cent and the researchers suggested there was no discernible evidence that the most disadvantaged were disproportionately represented among those who could not be contacted. Of those contacted, per cent initially had left the New Deal to enter employment and just over per cent reported that they had not been entitled to claim due to sanctions. Some continued to “sign on”, others were ill, and some entered education or otherwise left the labour market. At the time of the survey the status of the young people had changed, with per cent reporting they were in work and per cent claimant unemployed. The researchers found that far fewer of those experiencing at least one of the conditions associated with disadvantage (been in custody; slept rough; lived in a hostel/foyer; been in care)—less than per cent—had left NDYP to enter employment. The front-line agencies reported no “surge” in cases, comparable to that in when benefit entitlement was withdrawn from - and -year-olds. They stressed, however, that many of their clients were only tentatively engaged with the labour market. They were likely to move in and out of jobs quickly and to engage sporadically with the New Deal. The challenge for NDPAs and Jobcentre Plus was to integrate their employment assistance with a network of services provided by other agencies and the voluntary sector. The chief concern among these agencies was that sanctions might exacerbate rather than ameliorate the social exclusion of their clients. The Employment Impact of the New Deal At the end of the Labour government announced it had achieved its first target and assisted , young people into jobs (DfEE ). Longterm youth unemployment, as measured by the receipt of JSA, had fallen dramatically, and macro economic evaluations had demonstrated that the programme was cost-effective, that youth unemployment was about , lower than it would have been without NDYP, and that , participants © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. were in work six months after joining the programme who would not otherwise have been so (White and Riley : ). Evaluations of the New Deal programmes for the older long-term unemployed and for lone parents have also demonstrated “net” additional employment effects (Blundell ; Lessof et al. ). These data mask some critical issues. Firstly, large numbers of young people do not get jobs after they participate in the programme. Of the , people who had started on NDYP by March only per cent were known to have entered unsubsidized employment, and nearly one in five of these jobs ended within weeks (the measure of job retention). If half of the per cent of leavers who entered unknown destinations left to take a job this suggests that less than half those going through NDYP leave to take up a job. A consequence is increased numbers of unemployed young people enter the NDYP for a second or third time. Another trend seems clear. By the start of there was evidence that the job entry rate for NDYP was falling as advisers struggled to place clients with complex employment barriers into sustained employment in a labour market showing the first signs of an economic downturn. Whereas in just over per cent of NDYP leavers got unsubsidized jobs, by March the unsubsidized job entry rate had slipped to . per cent (TUC ). The impacts of NDYP also vary geographically. The programme was most successful in rural areas, especially in the South of England, where over half of participants typically entered jobs. Performance was worst in highunemployment industrial cities and in the inner city of London. Job entry rates there could be as low as per cent and retention rates were lower because of the relatively poor quality of jobs available. This performance in high-unemployment areas stemmed from an interplay between local labour market conditions, the characteristics of participants and the capacity of local delivery systems (Sunley and Martin ). Whatever the economic circumstances of a particular area, the job entry rate for minority ethnic group NDYP participants has been lower than that of their white counterparts (Strategy Unit : ). The government has responded to these challenges in two ways. Treasury and Departmental economists argue that labour market turnover and economic change generate a wide range of vacancies in most parts of the country and that buoyant labour markets exist close to areas of high unemployment (ESC ). The issue, they suggest, is employability and physical access to jobs (such as transport links) rather than job creation. The economists emphasize that NDYP participation has also reduced the “scarring” effect of long-term unemployment with those re-entering the programme exiting at the same rate as the newly unemployed rather than becoming “detached” and experiencing longer spells of unemployment (Wells ). The other response has been to redesign elements of the NDYP to make it more flexible and relevant to employer demands. The National Employment Panel in particular has initiated a range of employer-led innovations aimed at improving retention and the quality of the jobs available to New Deal participants (see, for example, the description of its work and the “Ambition” initiatives at www.cesi.org.uk/events/events_/ndic/presentations/ © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Cay_Stratton.ppt). The government has also made significant changes in its performance target regime and in allocating funding. Job entry targets are now geared to improve performance in the lowest-performing areas, especially those with high concentrations of minority ethnic groups. The targets also encourage Jobcentre Plus to work in partnership, rather than in competition, with other organizations. Extra emphasis is placed on counting job entries that are actually sustained (albeit the four-week criterion adopted still seems somewhat limited). There have been successive initiatives aimed at giving NDPAs more flexibility and tools to work with those “hardest to help”. Perhaps the most significant of these pilots is a programme called “Step Up”, which is a oneyear temporary job creation programme targeted at high-unemployment areas and aimed at those unemployed New Deal participants who would otherwise be requalifying for a second or third stint in the programme. Conclusion As New Labour developed its “employment-first” strategy, Michael White suggested that if initiatives like the NDYP were to become more than just another “modestly effective” employment programme then the strategy would need to establish a “fresh ethical code” for British employment policy (: ). He identified three criteria to help distinguish NDYP as an ethical as against an instrumental policy: that it is rights-based; that it prioritizes increased well-being for disadvantaged individuals or groups; and that some cost “trade-off ” is acceptable between economic efficiency and equity. This paper has shown that the NDYP contains these three, sometimes contending, objectives. The programme has generated modest improvements in employment outcomes and the front-line, client-centred experience of NDYP seems to be far more positive than the monolithic instrument of social control suggested by some critics. The programme has also been changed rapidly to make it more flexible and responsive to the needs of employers and particular localities. NDYP has, however, struggled to assist those “hardest to help” into jobs and this has been exacerbated by the hierarchy of options, the increased emphasis on unsubsidized job entries, and the often blunt application of benefit sanctions. Jobcentre Plus faces a major challenge to integrate and sequence job search and placement alongside the other services necessary to tackle social exclusion. The radical potential of the NDYP will be undermined without that other key to delivering an “employment-first” strategy—jobs. In many localities the NDYP struggles to deliver the job entry rates essential if the programme is to undermine the popular perception that such “schemes” are designed to massage the unemployment figures. If the UK is to create something like the ethical employment policy of countries such as Sweden and Denmark, then it will need to create a viable intermediate employment sector for the hardest to help. This does not necessitate a return to the “make-work” schemes associated with old-style job creation programmes but a harnessing of the potential of Intermediate Labour Market projects that have developed in © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. high-unemployment areas to deliver transitional waged jobs for the longterm jobless (Marshall and MacFarlane ). “Modernization” itself may also create new barriers and reinforce existing ones. The integration of Jobcentre Plus involves the planned closure of at least local offices and an increased use of call centres and computerized access points. This significantly reduces front-line contact for those with limited English or keyboard skills. This challenges Jobcentre Plus both to provide effective outreach services and to work in partnership with local networks. This assessment of the NDYP has implications for the broader “employmentfirst” strategy now being extended to cover working-age benefit recipients. Paid work may offer a route out of poverty for many unemployed people, especially when combined with an effective “make work pay” strategy. New Deal programmes, however, struggle already to place those with multiple employment barriers and there is much resistance to the extension of work obligations to groups like lone parents (Dwyer ). When combined with the modest improvements in employment rates generated by the New Deals this suggests that many British citizens with caring responsibilities or with disabilities or health problems will continue to rely on the benefit system. Improving their living standards and life chances will require more than the offer of employment assistance every year or so. 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