Warsaw, 31 March 2017
Balance of Payments in Poland
for Q4 2016
The quarterly bop has been prepared based on monthly and quarterly information reported by
Polish residents involved in transactions with non-residents, public statistics surveys as well as
administrative data sources.
This version of bop is preliminary and may be subject to further revisions.
The current and capital account
The balance on the current and capital account was positive and amounted to PLN 7.3
billion. In Q4 2016, the current and capital account balance equalled 1.4% of the GDP.
Graph 1. Current and capital account, PLN billion
In Q4 2016, the balance of the current account was negative and amounted to PLN 1.6
billion, improved by PLN 2.6 billion when compared with the corresponding quarter of
2015. This balance was influenced by negative balances of primary income (PLN
16.6 billion) and secondary income (PLN 1.5 billion) as well as positive balances of
services (PLN 16.0 billion) and trade in goods (PLN 0.5 billion). The negative current
account balance stood at 0.3% of the GDP.
The decline in the current account deficit compared to the corresponding period of 2015
primarily resulted from the increase in the positive balance of trade in services by PLN
4.6 billion. The balance of primary income also improved by PLN 1.5 billion as well as
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balance of secondary income, by PLN 0.4 billion. At the same time surplus of the trade in
goods decreased by PLN 3.9 billion.
The capital account balance was positive and amounted to PLN 8.9 billion, a significant
improvement when compared with the corresponding period of the previous year,
resulting from inflow of EU structural funds (PLN 10.1 billion).
Trade in goods
In Q4 2016, exports were estimated at PLN 201.8 billion, and imports at PLN 201.3
billion. The growth in exports of goods (up by PLN 11.7 billion, i.e. 6.2%) resulted from
increased sale abroad of cars and automotive products, food, raw materials and fuels as
well as clothing. The increase in imports (up by PLN 15.6 billion, i.e. 8.4%) was largely
due to the increase in imports of automotive products (cars, in particular), food, raw
materials and fuels as well as clothing, accompanied by the lower decrease in the
dynamic of imported oil (increase in oil price by 2.9% and decrease in imported volume
by 7.3%), which influenced the increase in value of imported goods. Positive balance of
trade in goods in Q4 2016 stood at PLN 0.5 billion (compared with PLN 4.4 billion in Q4
2015).
International trade in services
Exports on services provided by Polish entities to foreigners amounted to PLN 53.0
billion, and imports on services purchased from non-residents ‒ to PLN 37.0 billion.
When compared with Q4 2015, export on services were higher by PLN 7.0 billion i.e.
15.3% and imports increased by PLN 2.5 billion i.e. 7.1%.
In Q4 2016, the balance on services was positive and amounted to PLN 16.0 billion. The
figure was determined by positive balances on other services – mostly processingwhich amounted to PLN 6.9 billion (up by PLN 3.1 billion when compared with Q4
2015), transportation in the amount of PLN 5.6 billion (up by PLN 0.7 billion) and
balance on travel, which stood at PLN 3.5 billion (up by PLN 0.8 billion).
Primary income
In Q4 2016, the negative balance on primary income amounted to PLN 16.6 billion and
was influenced by the negative balance on investment income (PLN 18.9 billion) and
compensation of employees (PLN 0.7 billion) and the positive balance on other primary
income (PLN 3.0 billion). The negative balance on investment income was driven by
foreign direct investors’ income amounting to PLN 16.7 billion – same as in the
corresponding period of 2015 – of which reinvested earnings amounted to PLN 0.8
billion, dividends - PLN 5.9 billion, and interest on debt instruments – PLN 2.8 billion.
The negative balance on primary income was also influenced by non-residents’ income
on portfolio investments in Poland (i.e. interest on debt securities issued by Polish
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entities and dividends paid). These amounted to PLN 3.8 billion, down by 7.5% when
compared with Q4 2015.
Non-residents’ income on other investments stood at PLN 1.9 billion and went up by
12.3% when compared with Q4 2015.
Secondary income of other sectors
The secondary income balance of other sectors was positive and amounted to PLN 2.8
billion. Credits on secondary income amounted to PLN 5.5 billion, of which PLN 2.9
billion were workers’ remittances. Debits stood at PLN 2.7 billion.
EU transfers
In Q4 2016, the inflow of funds from the EU, as shown in bop, amounted to PLN 14.8
billion. The inflow shown in primary income amounted to PLN 3.8 billion (mostly
transfers under the Common Agricultural Policy). The inflow of capital transfers stood at
PLN 10.1 billion (transfers under the Cohesion Fund – PLN 5.6 billion and European
Regional Development Fund – PLN 4.5 billion). In the same period, Poland’s
membership premiums paid to the EU budget amounted to PLN 5.9 billion. As a result
of these transactions, the balance of EU transfers in Q4 2016 was positive and amounted
to PLN 8.9 billion.
Financial account (net assets)
The inflow of capital against non-resident investment in Poland (increase in liabilities)
amounted to PLN 25.4 billion. In the same period, Polish investment abroad increased by
PLN 28.8 billion (outflow of capital).
Foreign investment (liabilities)
The increase in foreign investment in Poland, amounting to PLN 25.4 billion, was
primarily influenced by net capital inflow to direct investment and other investment.
The balance of direct investment on the liabilities side was positive and amounted to
PLN 17.1 billion. It was influenced by positive reinvestment of earnings (PLN 8.0
billion), net inflow of equity capital (PLN 4.3 billion), and net inflow of capital against
debt instruments (PLN 4.8 billion).
In Q4 2016, balance on foreign portfolio investment was negative and amounted to PLN
7.9 billion. It resulted from decrease of non-resident investment in Polish equity
securities by PLN 11.1 billion, mostly investment fund shares. Non-resident investment
in debt securities stood at PLN 3.2 billion net (mostly debt securities issued by banks –
PLN 3.6 billion).
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Graph 2. Foreign investment in Poland, PLN billion (liabilities)
The balance of other foreign investment was positive and amounted to PLN 16.2 billion.
This item was influenced by the increase in liabilities of NBP by PLN 14.4 billion (mostly
repo transactions) as well as government sector, up by PLN 3.6 billion (mostly as a result
of drawing of loans received from international organizations). The liabilities of the
banking sector against other investment decreased by PLN 1.5 billion (mostly due to
repayment of loans received from foreign investors). The liabilities of other sectors
decreased by PLN 0.3 billion (mainly due to repayment of loans received from nonresidents).
Resident investment abroad (assets)
In Q4 2016, the balance of investment by residents abroad was positive and amounted to
PLN 28.8 billion, mostly as a result of transactions registered in direct investment, other
investment and official reserve assets.
The balance of direct investment assets was positive and amounted to PLN 23.0 billion
(due to increase in assets against equity amounting to PLN 16.9 billion and increase in
assets against debt instruments standing at PLN 6.1 billion).
When compared with the corresponding period of 2015 balance on transactions under
direct investment (on assets side) went up by PLN 26.5 billion as a result of transactions
carried out in the process of restructuring of capital groups. The change affects same
domestic investment funds. So far, these entities made their investments directly abroad,
which was registered under portfolio investment. Starting from Q4 2016 these
investments have been redirected to other domestic entities, which made their
investments classified in direct investment.
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In the same period, Polish entities (mostly investment funds, as a result of restructuring)
sold PLN 22.4 billion in foreign equity securities. Residents (mainly other financial
institutions) sold PLN 2.3 billion in debt securities. When compared with the
corresponding period of 2015 balance on portfolio investment assets decreased by PLN
36.1 billion.
The balance of other Polish investment abroad was positive and amounted to PLN 3.5
billion. It was strongly influenced by transactions executed by the banking sector, whose
assets against deposits placed with banks abroad increased by PLN 3.4 billion.
In Q4 2016, the increase in official reserve assets (PLN 46.5 billion) was influenced by
NBP’s client transactions (PLN 26.2 billion) – particularly the Ministry of Finance and the
European Commission. Positive exchange rate differences and valuation adjustments
resulted in a further increase in the value of reserve assets by PLN 20.3 billion.
Official reserve assets at the end of December 2016 amounted to PLN 478.1 billion.
Additional information on the balance of payments
Balance of payments data for February 2017 will be released on 13 April 2017.
Balance of payments data for Q1 2017 will be released on 30 June 2017.
Time series of the quarterly balance of payments beginning with Q1 2004 are available at
the NBP website.
http://www.nbp.pl/en/statystyka/Bilans_platniczy/BOP_q.xlsx
Time series of the monthly balance of payments beginning with January 2004 are
available at the NBP website.
http://www.nbp.pl/en/statystyka/Bilans_platniczy/BOP_m.xlsx
Analytical tables of the quarterly balance of payments beginning with Q1 2004 are
available at the NBP website.
http://www.nbp.pl/en/statystyka/Bilans_platniczy/BOP_q_PLN.xlsx
Time series of the monthly stock of official reserve assets beginning with January
1998 are available at the NBP website.
http://www.nbp.pl/en/statystyka/DWN/Rez_m.xlsx
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Balance of Payments */
mn PLN
2015
2016
IV Q
Current Account
IV Q
Change
Dynamics
IV Q 16 - IV Q 15
Change
Dynamics
-4 203
-9 059
-1 572
7 487
4 457
190 099
185 642
-2 830
186 490
189 320
535
201 792
201 257
3 365
15 302
11 937
108,2%
106,3%
-3 922
11 693
15 615
106,2%
108,4%
11 418
45 984
34 566
14 532
50 073
35 541
15 989
53 021
37 032
1 457
2 948
1 491
105,9%
104,2%
4 571
7 037
2 466
115,3%
107,1%
-18 089
7 513
25 602
-19 511
12 070
31 581
-16 557
10 765
27 322
2 954
-1 305
-4 259
89,2%
86,5%
1 532
3 252
1 720
143,3%
106,7%
-1 989
5 332
7 321
-1 250
5 978
7 228
-1 539
6 968
8 507
-289
990
1 279
116,6%
117,7%
450
1 636
1 186
130,7%
116,2%
3 314
4 871
1 557
166
477
311
8 873
10 202
1 329
8 707
9 725
1 018
2138,8%
427,3%
5 559
5 331
-228
209,4%
85,4%
-7 424
-8 558
3 410
11 968
10 834
Direct investment - assets
Equity and investment fund shares
Debt instruments
-3 498
-6 104
2 606
3 952
3 399
553
22 983
16 854
6 129
19 031
13 455
5 576
26 481
22 958
3 523
Direct investment - liabilities
Equity and investment fund shares
Debt instruments
10 968
14 739
-3 771
9 927
12 819
-2 892
17 075
12 250
4 825
7 148
-569
7 717
6 107
-2 489
8 596
Portfolio investment - assets
Equity securities
Debt securities
13 235
13 709
-474
-2 997
-3 586
589
-24 776
-22 432
-2 344
-21 779
-18 846
-2 933
-38 011
-36 141
-1 870
Portfolio investment - liabilities
Equity securities
Debt securities
12 567
8 849
3 718
-1 472
-5 681
4 209
-7 924
-11 086
3 162
-6 452
-5 405
-1 047
-20 491
-19 935
-556
Other investment - assets
Monetary authorities
General government
MFIs (excluding monetary authorities)
Other sectors
6 920
2
9
-1 256
8 165
-3 492
0
108
-3 634
34
3 396
995
25
2 691
-315
6 888
995
-83
6 325
-349
-3 524
993
16
3 947
-8 480
Other investment - liabilities
Monetary authorities
General government
MFIs (excluding monetary authorities)
Other sectors
-20 746
-7 750
4 537
-16 940
-593
4 061
5 981
-602
-3 314
1 996
16 228
14 408
3 613
-1 483
-310
12 167
8 427
4 215
1 831
-2 306
36 974
22 158
-924
15 457
283
51
-290
984
1 274
933
Oficial reserves assets
-21 343
6 785
26 202
19 417
47 545
Net Errors and Omissions
-6 535
335
-3 891
-4 226
2 644
Balance on goods
Goods: exports
Goods: imports
Balance on Services
Services: Credit
Services: Debit
Balance on Primary Income
Primary income: credit
Primary income: debit
Balance on Secondary Income
Secondary income: credit
Secondary income: debit
Capital Account
Capital account: credit
Capital account: debit
Financial account
Financial derivatives
*/
III Q
IV Q 16 - III Q 16
2 631
Preliminary data
6/7
Balance of Payments */
mn EUR
2015
2016
IV Q
Current Account
IV Q
Change
Dynamics
IV Q 16 - IV Q 15
Change
Dynamics
-982
-2 087
-357
1 730
Balance on goods
Goods: exports
Goods: imports
1 046
44 599
43 553
-652
42 962
43 614
122
46 108
45 986
774
3 146
2 372
107,3%
105,4%
-924
1 509
2 433
103,4%
105,6%
Balance on Services
Services: Credit
Services: Debit
2 680
10 789
8 109
3 348
11 536
8 188
3 654
12 115
8 461
306
579
273
105,0%
103,3%
974
1 326
352
112,3%
104,3%
Balance on Primary Income
Primary income: credit
Primary income: debit
-4 242
1 763
6 005
-4 496
2 779
7 275
-3 781
2 461
6 242
715
-318
-1 033
88,6%
85,8%
461
698
237
139,6%
103,9%
-466
1 251
1 717
-287
1 378
1 665
-352
1 592
1 944
-65
214
279
115,5%
116,8%
114
341
227
127,3%
113,2%
778
1 143
365
38
110
72
2 027
2 331
304
1 989
2 221
232
2119,1%
422,2%
1 249
1 188
-61
203,9%
83,3%
-1 745
-1 970
780
2 750
2 525
Direct investment - assets
Equity and investment fund shares
Debt instruments
-821
-1 432
611
910
783
127
5 252
3 852
1 400
4 342
3 069
1 273
6 073
5 284
789
Direct investment - liabilities
Equity and investment fund shares
Debt instruments
2 572
3 456
-884
2 286
2 953
-667
3 901
2 799
1 102
1 615
-154
1 769
1 329
-657
1 986
Portfolio investment - assets
Equity securities
Debt securities
3 104
3 216
-112
-691
-826
135
-5 661
-5 126
-535
-4 970
-4 300
-670
-8 765
-8 342
-423
Portfolio investment - liabilities
Equity securities
Debt securities
2 949
2 076
873
-340
-1 309
969
-1 811
-2 533
722
-1 471
-1 224
-247
-4 760
-4 609
-151
Other investment - assets
Monetary authorities
General government
MFIs (excluding monetary authorities)
Other sectors
1 623
0
2
-295
1 916
-804
0
26
-837
7
774
227
5
614
-72
1 578
227
-21
1 451
-79
-849
227
3
909
-1 988
Other investment - liabilities
Monetary authorities
General government
MFIs (excluding monetary authorities)
Other sectors
-4 867
-1 818
1 065
-3 975
-139
936
1 378
-138
-763
459
3 707
3 292
826
-339
-72
2 771
1 914
964
424
-531
8 574
5 110
-239
3 636
67
11
-66
225
291
214
Oficial reserves assets
-5 008
1 563
5 987
4 424
10 995
Net Errors and Omissions
-1 541
79
-890
-969
651
Balance on Secondary Income
Secondary income: credit
Secondary income: debit
Capital Account
Capital account: credit
Capital account: debit
Financial account
Financial derivatives
*/
III Q
IV Q 16 - III Q 16
625
Preliminary data
7/7