2
East Ayrshire Council Area - Demographic Factsheet
Population
Last updated:
27/04/2017
Next update due:
Jun-17
The 2016 population for East Ayrshire is 122,200; an increase of 0.1 per cent from 122,060 in 2015. The population of East Ayrshire accounts for 2.3 per cent of the total population of Scotland.
In East Ayrshire, 16.3 per cent of the population are aged 16 to 29 years. This is smaller than Scotland where 18.2 per cent are aged 16 to 29 years. Persons aged 60 and over make up 25.9 per cent of East
Ayrshire. This is larger than Scotland where 24.4 per cent are aged 60 and over.
Since 1989, East Ayrshire's total population has fallen overall. Scotland's population has risen over this period.
Estimated population of East Ayrshire and Scotland, by age group, 2016
Female pop. East
Ayrshire
Total pop. of East
Ayrshire
% of total pop. of
East Ayrshire
Male pop.
Scotland
Age group
Total pop. of
Scotland
% of total pop.
of Scotland
0-15
10,854
10,405
21,259
17.4%
0-15
468,396
447,521
915,917
16.9%
16-29
10,069
9,854
19,923
16.3%
16-29
492,255
489,057
981,312
18.2%
30-44
10,318
11,171
21,489
17.6%
30-44
498,502
518,802
1,017,304
18.8%
45-59
13,434
14,499
27,933
22.9%
45-59
567,588
602,175
1,169,763
21.6%
60-74
10,291
11,089
21,380
17.5%
60-74
421,742
456,353
878,095
16.2%
75+
4,307
5,909
10,216
8.4%
75+
179,020
263,289
442,309
8.2%
All ages
59,273
62,927
122,200
100.0%
2,627,503
2,777,197
5,404,700
100.0%
Estimated population of East Ayrshire by age and sex, 30 June 2016
All ages
Estimated population of East Ayrshire and Scotland, 1989-2016
16,000
Persons (1,000s)
Council area
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
140
6,000
120
5,000
100
4,000
80
3,000
60
2,000
40
1,000
20
2,000
East Ayrshire
Female
1
© Crown Copyright 2017
Scotland
2015
2013
2009
2007
2005
Age group
Male
0
2003
75+
2001
60-74
1999
45-59
1997
30-44
1995
16-29
1993
0-15
1991
0
0
1989
Population
Female pop.
Scotland
Persons (1,000s)
Scotland
Male pop. East
Ayrshire
2011
Age group
Births (calendar year)
Between 2014 and 2015 East Ayrshire experienced a 5.8 per cent increase in the number of births, rising from 1,254 in 2014, to 1,327 in 2015. The number of births in Scotland fell by 2.9 per cent.
The most popular name given to boys born in East Ayrshire in 2016 was James and Logan and the most popular name given to girls was Ellie.
Fertility in East Ayrshire increased from 56.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2014, to 60.3 in 2015. For Scotland as a whole, the general feritlity rate decreased from 54.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to
44 in 2014, to 53.2 in 2015.
Births in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2014 and 2015
Births 2014
East Ayrshire
Scotland
Births 2015
% change in total no. of births
2014-2015
Male
Female
Male
643
611
695
Female
632
5.8%
29,056
27,669
28,354
26,744
-2.9%
Live births by sex, East Ayrshire, 2005-2015
70
800
60
700
600
50
No. of births
General Fertility Rate
General Fertility Rate* (GFR) in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2010-2015
40
30
20
500
400
300
200
10
100
0
0
2010
2011
2012
East Ayrshire
2013
2014
2015
2005
Scotland
2006
2007
2008
2009
Male
* Live births per 1,000 women aged 15 - 44
2
© Crown Copyright 2017
2010
2011
Female
2012
2013
2014
2015
Deaths (calendar year)
The number of deaths in East Ayrshire increased from 1,388 in 2014 to 1,406 in 2015. Over the period 2013 to 2015 the overall death rate was lower for males than for females.
Compared to Scotland over the period 2013 to 2015, East Ayrshire had a higher death rate. The main cause of death in East Ayrshire was cancer, followed by circulatory disease.
Deaths and age specific death rates by age group, the combined years 2013-2015
Age group
Deaths in East
Ayrshire
Deaths in Scotland
Age specific death rate per 1,000 people, East Ayrshire
Female
Age specific death rate per 1,000 people, Scotland
Male
Female
0
18
568
3.7
5.0
6.3
3.4
3.0
3.2
1-14
2
33
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
15-29
9
22
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.5
30-44
7
10
2.6
1.3
2.5
1.9
1.0
1.4
45-64
17
4
6.5
4.9
6.2
6.5
4.3
5.4
65+
47
58
51.9
47.3
49.2
166,518
53.6
13.4
51.6
4,232
51.5
11.1
10.4
10.5
10.4
All ages
Male
Cause of death in males, East Ayrshire, 2015*
All Persons
11.9
Cause of death in females, East Ayrshire, 2015*
Cancer
Cancer
16.2%
5.9%
30.7%
21.1%
Circulatory Diseases
Respiratory Diseases
5.2%
All Persons
29.1%
2.6%
Circulatory Diseases
Respiratory Diseases
4.7%
Digestive Diseases
13.1%
29.0%
External Causes
Digestive Diseases
12.9%
29.6%
External Causes
Other
Other
* Due to rounding these figures may differ slightly from those published in Vital Events Reference Tables. See 'Data sources' for link to this data.
3
© Crown Copyright 2017
Migration
Migration, in, out, and net, East Ayrshire, annual average 2013-15*
1,000
On average in 2013-15 there was a net outflow of 48 people from East Ayrshire per year, meaning that
less people entered East Ayrshire (3,236 per year) than left (3,284 per year). The 16 to 29 year olds age
group accounted for the largest group of in-migrants into East Ayrshire. The largest group of outmigrants was also the 16 to 29 year olds.
Persons
500
Average migration in and out of East Ayrshire,
2013-15*
Age Group
In
Out
-500
Net
-1,000
0-15
646
618
28
16-29
898
1,060
-162
30-44
848
784
64
45-64
626
594
32
218
3,236
228
3,284
-10
-48
65+
All ages
0
-1,500
0-15
16-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Age group
IN-Migration
OUT-Migration
NET-Migration
*Migration figures are based on a 3-year average and include migration within Scotland, between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and between Scotland and overseas. They do not include asylum seekers and armed forces movements.
Life Expectancy
Female life expectancy at birth (79.4 years) is greater than male life expectancy (76.1 years), but both were lower than the Scottish average. Male life expectancy at birth in East Ayrshire is improving more rapidly
than female life expectancy.
In East Ayrshire female life expectancy at age 65 (18.4 years) is greater than male life expectancy at age 65 (17.1 years).
Life Expectancy for East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2003-2005 and 2013-2015
Life expectancy at birth in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2013-2015
East Ayrshire
Life expectancy at birth
85
Life expectancy at 65
Male
Female
Male
Female
2013-2015
76.1
79.4
17.1
18.4
2003-2005
% Change
between 20032005 and 20132015
73.7
78.0
-
-
75
3.2%
1.9%
-
-
70
Years
80
65
Scotland
Life expectancy at birth
Life expectancy at 65
60
Male
Female
Male
Female
2013-2015
77.1
81.1
17.3
19.7
2003-2005
% Change
between 20032005 and 20132015
74.2
79.0
-
-
3.9%
2.7%
-
-
55
50
East Ayrshire
Scotland
Male
4
© Crown Copyright 2017
Female
Marriages & Civil Partnerships
There were 500 marriages in East Ayrshire in 2015; an increase of 2.2 per cent from 2014.
In East Ayrshire 54.2 per cent of people marrying in 2015 were aged 25-34. In Scotland as a whole 47.5 per cent of people marrying were in this age group.
Since 2005 the number of marriages in East Ayrshire has risen by 34.8 per cent.
Scotland has seen an increase during the same period of time.
No. of people
marrying in East
Ayrshire
No. of people
marrying in
Scotland
% of people
marrying in East
Ayrshire
% of people
marrying in
Scotland
16-24
74
3,961
7.4%
6.7%
25-34
542
28,196
54.2%
47.5%
35-44
210
13,154
21.0%
22.2%
174
14,071
17.4%
23.7%
1,000
59,382
100.0%
100.0%
45+
All ages
Council Area
Age group
Number of marriages in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2005-2015
600
35,000
500
30,000
25,000
400
20,000
300
15,000
200
10,000
100
5,000
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
East Ayrshire
Civil Partnerships in East Ayrshire and Scotland by sex, 2014 and 2015
2014
Male
East Ayrshire
Scotland
2015
Female
Male
Female
4
4
-
-
193
243
33
31
5
© Crown Copyright 2017
Scotland
Scotland
Number of people marrying in East Ayrshire and Scotland by 10-year age group, 2015
Population Projections
By 2039 the population of East Ayrshire is projected to be 120,573, a decrease of 1.8 per cent compared to the population in 2014. The population of Scotland is projected to increase by 7.5 per cent between 2014
and 2039.
Over the 25 year period, the age group that is projected to increase the most in size in East Ayrshire is the 75+ age group. This is the same as for Scotland as a whole.
The population aged under 16 in East Ayrshire is projected to decline by 9.1 per cent over the 25 year period.
Projected population, by age group, in East Ayrshire, 2014-2039
Base
Projected years
Base year
Age group
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
0-15
21,169
21,028
20,774
20,165
19,807
19,235
16-29
20,376
19,119
17,929
17,545
17,449
17,161
30-49
32,076
29,420
28,360
28,555
27,535
26,494
50-64
25,302
26,944
26,804
24,262
21,723
20,748
65-74
13,221
14,080
14,268
15,518
16,781
16,080
75+
10,693
12,196
14,338
16,123
18,450
20,855
All ages
122,837
122,787
122,473
122,168
121,745
120,573
Percentage change in population in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2014-2039 (2014based projections)
Components of projected population change for East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2014-2039
(2014-based projections)
120%
10%
8%
Percentage change
Percentage change
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-40%
0-15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
-4%
75+
East Ayrshire
Scotland
Age group
East Ayrshire
Natural Change*
Scotland
* Natural change equals births minus deaths
6
© Crown Copyright 2017
Net Migration
Total Change
Households & Dwellings
The 2015 estimate of the number of households in East Ayrshire is 54,570. This is a 0.3 per cent increase in the 2014 figure of 54,401, compared to a 0.6 per cent increase in Scotland as a whole. The proportion of
these households receiving a single adult Council Tax discount is 38.7 per cent. For Scotland, this figure is 37.4 per cent.
With regards to the dwellings in East Ayrshire, 97 per cent are occupied, 3 per cent are vacant and 0 per cent are second homes. The proportions of dwellings in Scotland which are vacant and second homes are
3.1 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively.
The 2015 estimate of the number of dwellings in East Ayrshire is 57,654. This is an increase of 0.6 per cent from 2014 and compares to a 0.7 per cent increase across Scotland as a whole.
Household estimates for East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2007-2015
2015
% change
2014-2015
% change
2010-2015
Year
2007
East Ayrshire
Scotland
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
52,425
53,079
53,519
53,793
53,927
54,143
54,453
54,401
54,570
0.3%
1.4%
2,318,966
2,337,967
2,351,780
2,364,850
2,376,424
2,387,211
2,401,788
2,418,335
2,433,956
0.6%
2.9%
2012
2013
2014
2015
% change
2014-2015
% change
2010-2015
Number of dwellings in East Ayrshire and Scotland, June 2007-2015
Year
2007
Scotland
2009
2010
54,848
55,717
56,121
56,398
56,614
56,919
57,172
57,324
57,654
0.6%
2.2%
2,440,596
2,460,883
2,476,157
2,488,496
2,500,849
2,515,042
2,526,870
2,540,561
2,557,582
0.7%
2.8%
Number of households in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2007-2015
Number of dwellings in East Ayrshire and Scotland, 2007-2015
3,000
2,500
40
2,000
30
1,500
20
1,000
10
500
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of dwellings (1,000s)
Council area
50
Number of households (1,000s)
Scotland
60
Number of households (1,000s)
Council area
2011
70
3,000
60
2,500
50
2,000
40
1,500
30
1,000
20
500
10
0
0
2007
2015
2008
2009
2010
East Ayrshire
2015
Scotland
7%
Flat
A-C
Terraced
22%
Semi-detached
26%
2014
Proportions of dwellings by Council Tax band in East Ayrshire, 2015
0%
29%
2013
East Ayrshire
Scotland
Types of dwelling in East Ayrshire, 2014
25%
2012
Year
Year
20%
2011
71%
Detached
Unknown
7
© Crown Copyright 2017
F-H
D-E
Number of dwellings (1,000s)
Scotland
East Ayrshire
2008
Household Projections
The total number of households in East Ayrshire is projected to change from 54,401 in 2014 to 56,296 in 2039, which is an increase of 3 per cent. In Scotland as a whole, the projected number of households is set to
increase by 14 per cent over the same 25 year period.
In Scotland, the number of lone adult households is projected to increase by 31 per cent over the 25 year period. In East Ayrshire, the number of lone adult households is projected to increase by 24 per cent, and
the number of larger households in East Ayrshire is projected to fall, with the number of households of 2 or more adults with children decreasing by 29 per cent over the 25 year period. The average household size is
projected to decrease from 2.22 in 2014 to 2.05 in 2039.
In East Ayrshire, households headed by 60-74 year olds are projected to increase in number by 2 per cent, and those headed by the 75+ age group are projected to increase in number by 70 per cent between the
years 2014 and 2039.
Projected percentage change in household, by household type, in East Ayrshire and
Scotland, 2014-2039
3,000
50
2,500
40
2,000
30
1,500
20
1,000
10
500
0
0
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
40%
30%
Percentage change
60
Number of households (1,000s)
Scotland
Number of households (1,000s)
Council area
Projected number of households in East Ayrshire and Scotland,
2014-2039
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
1 adult
2039
1 adult with 1 or
more children
3 or more adults
East Ayrshire
Scotland
Year
East Ayrshire
Household type
Scotland
Base-year
Projected number of households
2 or more adults
with 1 or more
children
% change in East Ayrshire
2014-2039
% change in
Scotland
2014-2039
31%
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
17,908
19,036
20,046
20,860
21,529
22,120
24%
1 adult with 1 or more children
3,775
3,946
4,108
4,272
4,413
4,533
20%
22%
3 or more adults
4,954
4,791
4,505
4,139
3,815
3,638
-27%
-18%
-12%
1 adult
2 or more adults with 1 or more children
10,615
9,755
9,059
8,501
8,017
7,535
-29%
Total households - East Ayrshire
54,401
55,361
56,047
56,398
56,473
56,296
3%
2,418,336
2,503,212
2,580,490
2,650,280
2,711,938
2,763,773
Total households - Scotland
Household by age of head of household
Base-year
2014
Projected number of households
% change in East Ayrshire
2014-2039
% change in
Scotland
2014-2039
2024
2029
2034
2039
16-29 years
5,278
5,170
4,774
4,496
4,636
4,613
-13%
0%
30-44 years
12,595
12,151
12,837
13,042
12,575
12,074
-4%
6%
45-59 years
16,266
16,471
15,142
13,728
13,316
14,016
-14%
1%
60-74 years
12,957
13,596
13,987
14,867
14,687
13,169
2%
11%
79%
75+ years
Total households - East Ayrshire
Total households - Scotland
2019
14%
7,304
7,974
9,308
10,265
11,259
12,423
70%
54,401
55,361
56,047
56,398
56,473
56,296
3%
2,418,336
2,503,212
2,580,490
2,650,280
2,711,938
2,763,773
8
© Crown Copyright 2017
14%
Data Sources - 27/04/2017
Population
Data
Current population estimates
Time series population estimates
Births
Data
Fertility rates
Popular names
Births
Deaths
Data
Deaths
Death rates
Cause of death
Migration
Data
Total migration
Life Expectancy
Data
Life exp. at birth
Life exp. at age 65
Update the 'Total population' and 'latest MYE' worksheets
Source
Mid-year Population Estimates Scotland: Table 1
Population Estimates Time Series Data (first table in the list)
Next update due
Apr-18
Apr-18
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-p
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-p
Update the 'Fertility', 'Popular names', and 'Births' worksheets
Source
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 3.8
Vital Events Popular Forenames: Table 3
Births Time Series Data: Table 'Births by Council Area, by sex, 1997 to…..'
Next update due
Aug-17
Mar-17
Aug-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/births/popular-names
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/births/births-time-series-data
Update the 'VE deaths latest', 'combined deaths', 'comb.MYE', 'cause of
death' and 'VE ref table - 6.3 (cause)' worksheets
Source
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 5.2
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 5.2
Mid-year Population Estimates Scotland: Table 2
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 6.3
Next update due
Aug-17
Aug-17
Aug-17
Aug-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-p
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
Update the 'Migration2', 'Migration 3', and 'total migration' worksheets
Source
Total Net Migration by Council Area by Single Year of Age and Sex
Next update due
Jul-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/total-migratio
update the 'LE' worksheet
Source
Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland: Tables 6 and 7
Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland: Table 10
Next update due
Nov-17
Nov-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottishhttp://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-
Source
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 1.3
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 1.3
Request from Vital Events branch
Next update due
Aug-17
Aug-17
Aug-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
email: [email protected]
Update the 'Population Projections', 'Pop Proj Table2' and 'components of
change' worksheet
Source
Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Table 2
Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Table A
Next update due
Oct-18
Oct-18
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-natio
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-natio
Update 'Household Estimates', 'No. of Dwellings', 'Occupied and Vacant
Dwellings' and 'Characteristics of Dwellings' worksheets
Source
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 4a
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 6
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 1
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 2
Next update due
Jun-17
Jun-17
Jun-17
Jun-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
Update the 'Total Household Projections', 'household Projections by
type', 'Household Proj by age of head' and 'Projected Average household
Source
Household Projections for Scotland: Tables 9, 11, 12, 13
Household Projections for Scotland: Tables 15, 16, 17, 18, 19
Household Projections for Scotland: Table 7
Household Projections for Scotland: Table 7
Next update due
Jan-19
Jan-19
Jan-19
Jan-19
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
Marriages & Civil Partnerships
Data
Civil Partnerships
Total Marriages
Marriages by 10yr age groups
Pop Projections
Data
Population projections
Components of change
Household & Dwellings
Data
Occupied and Vacant Dwellings
Characteristics of Dwellings
Household Estimates
Number of Dwellings
Household Projections
Data
Projected number of households
Head of household data
Projected household size
% change in household size
9
© Crown copyright 2017