CSIRO PUBLISHING Marine and Freshwater Research, 2010, 61, 842–856 www.publish.csiro.au/journals/mfr Multi-scale environmental factors explain fish losses and refuge quality in drying waterholes of Cooper Creek, an Australian arid-zone river Angela H. ArthingtonA,D, Julian D. OldenB, Stephen R. BalcombeA and Martin C. ThomsC A Australian Rivers Institute and eWater Cooperative Research Centre, Griffith University, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia. B School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. C University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. D Corresponding author. Email: [email protected] Abstract. Many rivers experience intermittent flows naturally or as a consequence of water abstraction. Climate change is likely to exacerbate flow variability such that dry spells may become more common. It is important to understand the ecological consequences of flow intermittency and habitat fragmentation in rivers, and to identify and protect habitat patches that provide refugia for aquatic biota. This paper explores environmental factors influencing dry season fish losses from isolated waterbodies in Cooper Creek, an unregulated arid-zone river in the Lake Eyre Basin, Australia. Multivariate ordination techniques and classification and regression trees (CART) were used to decompose species–environment relationships into a hierarchically structured data set, and to determine factors explaining changes in fish assemblage structure and species losses over a single dry season. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) explained 74% of fish assemblage change in terms of waterhole morphology (wetted perimeter, depth), habitat structure (bench development, off-take channels), waterhole quality (eroded banks, gross primary production), the size of surrounding floodplains and the relative isolation of waterholes. Classification trees for endemic and restricted species reaffirmed the importance of these waterhole and floodplain variables as drivers of fish losses. The CCA and CART models offer valuable tools for identification of refugia in Cooper Creek and, possibly, other dryland rivers. Additional keywords: drought, dryland rivers, floodplains, habitat structure, spatial scale. Introduction Many of the world’s rivers are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pressures that impinge on their hydrologic regimes and disrupt ecological processes dependent on naturally dynamic wetting and drying cycles (Poff et al. 1997; Puckridge et al. 1998; Nilsson et al. 2005). Climate change is likely to further disrupt hydrologic processes in many rivers, such that riverine habitats may become increasingly fragmented and stressful for aquatic life during extended dry periods (Wishart 2006). Current knowledge about the effects of flow intermittency is fragmentary and no clear framework or principles exist to support the management of intermittent streams and arid-zone rivers. It is important to understand ecological responses to intermittent flows, habitat fragmentation and habitat isolation in all rivers, and to be able to identify and protect habitat patches that are of sufficient quality to act as refugia for aquatic biota in fragmented riverine landscapes. Arid-zone rivers such as Cooper Creek in the Lake Eyre Basin, Australia, belong to a class of perched or semi-perched alluvial rivers that experience flow intermittence as a consequence of Ó CSIRO 2010 evaporative and transmission losses, and depletion of bank storage and the floodplain aquifer (Larned et al. 2010). Rivers draining to Lake Eyre, such as Cooper Creek, experience infrequent high-magnitude flow events (linked to ENSO phenomena) that can inundate extensive areas of floodplain, often for several months at a time (Knighton and Nanson 1994a, 2001). After flood recession, Cooper Creek dries down into a complex system of anastomosing channels (the ‘channel country’) and several hundred relatively deep channel segments known locally as ‘waterholes’ (Knighton and Nanson 1994b; Davis et al. 2002). These waterbodies can be likened to the isolated floodplain lakes and lagoons left in tropical floodplain river systems after floods recede (Rodriguez and Lewis 1997). Isolated waterholes patchily distributed along Cooper Creek act as refugia for fish and other obligate aquatic species (cf. Morton et al. 1995; Sheldon et al. 2002; Magoulick and Kobza 2003). These refuge habitats can support up to 12 native fish species of ecological and conservation significance, and species that are valued socially and economically for recreational fishing (Wager and Unmack 2000; Pusey et al. 2004). 10.1071/MF09096 1323-1650/10/080842 Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia Marine and Freshwater Research 843 Cooper Creek is often described as a ‘boom and bust’ ecological system (Walker et al. 1995, 1997; Bunn et al. 2006a, 2006b) where fish and other biota have evolved resilience traits (e.g. high vagility, use of floodplain resources for feeding, growth and recruitment) that enable them to respond opportunistically to flooding when it occurs. Bursts of primary and secondary production on freshly inundated floodplains translate into high levels of fish recruitment and production that are often correlated with flood height and/or the area of flooded terrain (Christensen 1993; Puckridge et al. 2000; James et al. 2008). All fish species (with the possible exception of the endemic Cooper tandan Neosiluroides cooperensis) utilise the rich food resources of the floodplains, and grow appreciably over periods of floodplain inundation (Balcombe et al. 2007; Balcombe and Arthington 2009). During the ‘bust’ periods that inevitably follow floods (or flow pulses confined within channels), obligate aquatic species die as water levels decline, or retreat to wetted habitats that continue to hold water even when there is little or no baseflow (Walker et al. 1995; Hamilton et al. 2005). For desert fishes left in isolated waterholes after the floods recede, dry periods are times of substantial stress and high mortality resulting from deteriorating habitat conditions and the biotic pressures of competition, predation and disease (Ruello 1976; Wager and Unmack 2000; Arthington et al. 2005). Fish living in arid-zone rivers typically possess well-developed resistance traits, such as tolerance of thermal, salinity, turbidity and oxygen extremes, habitat and trophic generalism and predator avoidance strategies (Matthews and MarshMatthews 2003). The Cooper Creek fauna is no exception (Puckridge et al. 2000; Wager and Unmack 2000; Balcombe et al. 2005). Even so, fish abundances and the assemblage composition in individual waterholes have been found to change markedly over dry periods (Puckridge et al. 2000; Arthington et al. 2005; Balcombe and Arthington 2009). This paper presents another perspective on the fish assemblages of drying waterholes by modelling how changes in environmental factors associated with water loss can influence changes in fish assemblage structure, where change is measured as ‘turnover’ – the number of local colonisations and extinctions related to the total number of species in the community (MacArthur and Wilson 1967). We tested three hypotheses: (1) that changes in waterhole fish assemblages would be driven primarily by species losses because waterhole isolation should prevent colonisation events; (2) that changes in fish assemblage structure would vary among waterholes as a function of environmental factors operating at three interacting spatial scales – the floodplain, the waterhole and habitat patches within waterholes (Arthington et al. 2005; Thorp et al. 2008); and (3) that individual species would respond to different sets of environmental factors depending on their habitat requirements, trophic ecology and tolerance characteristics. (‘Windorah’ and ‘Tanbar’) on Cooper Creek below the confluence of the Thomson and Barcoo Rivers, and one reach on Kyabra Creek (‘Springfield’) (Fig. 1). A large waterhole was selected in each reach as well as several other waterholes situated in an adjacent or more distant channel, or upstream/downstream of the main waterhole; additional waterholes were generally within 5–10 km of the large waterhole. Cooper Creek waterholes range in length from a few hundred metres to over 20 km. Some have well-developed levees and are typically 2–5-fold wider and 2–3-fold deeper than those on the associated distributary channels (Knighton and Nanson 1994a). Floodplain size, waterhole exposure, basin morphometry, riparian development and physical habitat structure varied greatly in our study area and influenced the persistence times of water in these refuge habitats (Davis et al. 2002; Arthington et al. 2005; Hamilton et al. 2005). All of the study reaches were unregulated by water infrastructure and extraction, apart from minor pumping to homesteads. The climate of the Cooper Creek catchment is classed as semiarid to arid, with a mean annual rainfall varying from 400 to 500 mm in the headwaters too100 mm at its entry to Lake Eyre (Puckridge 1999; Bunn et al. 2003). The hydrology of the Cooper catchment has been described in detail by Puckridge et al. (1998), Knighton and Nanson (2001) and McMahon and Finlayson (2003). Most stream flow is generated by seasonal monsoon rainfall in the headwaters and periodic local rainfall, resulting in highly variable patterns of floodplain inundation and within channel-flow pulses that can connect waterholes. At Currareva near Windorah (Fig. 1), the mean annual discharge is 3.05 km3 year1 (97 m3 s1), with wide interannual variation and periods of zero flow lasting up to 21 months (based on 49 years of records). Episodic floods can inundate tens of thousands of square kilometres of floodplain (equivalent to 35% of the catchment) and serve to reconnect channels, anabranches, distributaries and isolated waterholes (Knighton and Nanson 1994a, 1994b; Bunn et al. 2003). Mean daily maximum air temperatures at Windorah range from 38.18C in January to 21.48C in July and mean daily minima range from 248C in January to 78C in July. Mean annual evaporation exceeds 3 m and, together with transpiration and groundwater recharge, results in transmission losses below Windorah accounting for more than two-thirds of the discharge by the time it reaches the South Australian border (Knighton and Nanson 1994b). Prior to this study, there was a large flood in January–February 2000 connecting all waterholes at Noonbah, Windorah and Tanbar, but not those along Kyabra Creek (Springfield), where flows remained within the channel (B. Morrish, pers. comm.). A small in-channel flow in December 2000–January 2001 linked all Springfield sites and also connected all of the study waterholes at Noonbah, Windorah and Tanbar. Thereafter, there was no flow through the study reaches and all waterholes decreased in volume between the early (April) and late (September) dry season of 2001. Materials and methods Study area Studies on waterhole fish assemblages were conducted at four locations in the Cooper Creek catchment: one reach of the Thomson River near Stonehenge (‘Noonbah’), two reaches Fish collection All 15 waterhole sites in the study area were sampled twice for fish (April and September 2001) using four standardised sampling methods (fyke nets, beach seine, small purse-shaped drag net and a zooplankton net). Details of the gear and sampling 844 Marine and Freshwater Research 140°E A. H. Arthington et al. 142°E 144°E 148°E Tho ms 22°E on R . N 146°E 24°E Barcoo R. Windorah 26°E Thomson River Kyabra Creek 28°E 1(8) THN 2(8) WLN 0(8) Cooper Creek PHN 6(10) GMW MFW MWW Noonbah Barcoo River 5(12) SHW 0(9) 6(12) Windorah BHN 1(9) Springfield 3(9) 3(10) Kyabra Creek Cooper Creek 3(10) 3(10) 1(9) 3(8) YPT WSF HSF OSF TBT 6(10) YLT 57% turnover (maximum) Tanbar YKT 11% turnover (minimum) Fig. 1. Location of the study area and Cooper Creek catchment and diagrammatic representation of the study reaches (boxes) and waterholes (circles) showing net change in species richness (no parentheses), species richness in April 2001 (in parentheses) and relative fish assemblage turnover value (¼ area of each circle) for each waterhole. Site codes: Noonbah reach: THN, Top; WLN, Waterloo; BHN, Bottom; PHN, Pelican; Springfield reach: WSF, Warrannee; HSF, Homestead; OSF, One-Mile; Windorah reach: MWW, Murken; SHW, Shed; GMW, Glenmurken; MFW, Mayfield; Tanbar reach: YKT, Yorakah; YLT, Yalungah; YPT, Yappi; TBT, Tanbar. techniques are provided in Arthington et al. (2005). Fyke net samples provided catch per unit effort data for each species in each waterhole in April and September 2001. Beach seining was undertaken during daylight hours in the littoral area to collect individuals and species that were too small to be collected by the fyke nets. A small purse-shaped drag net used for the collection of small fish and invertebrates for genetic analysis occasionally captured additional small fish species (especially Hypseleotris spp.) that were missed in the fyke nets and the beach seine. Plankton tows also caught small fish on occasion. Additional species collected by these methods were added to the presence/ absence data for each waterhole. Fish were identified to species Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia level using Allen et al. (2002) and species lists for the Lake Eyre Basin (Puckridge 1999; Wager and Unmack 2000). Apart from alien species (which were destroyed under the conditions of our fishing permit) and small samples retained for genetic and food web analyses, all fish were returned to the water alive. Waterhole physical characteristics and water chemistry Fish assemblages in rivers are influenced by abiotic and biotic factors and ecological processes that operate at multiple spatial scales. In Cooper Creek, we recognised three potentially interacting spatial scales – the floodplain, the waterhole and habitat patches within each waterhole (after Davis et al. 2002). We measured 25 physical and water quantity/quality variables at the three spatial scales using remotely sensed imagery, aerial photographs or ground surveys (see methods described in Davis et al. 2002). Physical floodplain and waterhole information was collected in April 2001 in association with fish sampling, with additional observations made and photographs taken during September 2001 to document changes in physical waterhole characteristics over time. Estimates of water loss in each waterhole between the two fish sampling occasions were provided by Hamilton et al. (2005) based on changes in conservative ions (Naþ and Cl) and from evaporative fractionation of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the water. The temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration were measured at each waterhole on both sampling occasions. Gross primary productivity (GPP) levels in the shallow littoral zone of each waterhole were determined by measuring dissolved oxygen and temperature within open-bottom in situ chambers over 24 h. The GPP was calculated as the sum of the DO produced during daylight hours plus the DO consumed by respiration during that period of time based on the night-time respiration rate. Changes in DO concentrations over time (mg O2 L1 h1) were multiplied by chamber volume and divided by substrate surface area to obtain values in units of mg O2 m2 h1. These rates were converted to units of carbon, assuming that one mole of carbon is equivalent to one mole of O2 for both respiration and photosynthesis (i.e. 1 mg O2 ¼ 0.375 mg C: Bender et al. 1987); the methods are described in Bunn et al. (2003) and Fellows et al. (2009). Statistical analysis The total number of species present in each waterhole on each sampling occasion was calculated from the pooled results of all sampling methods. Assemblage-level turnover was estimated from the presence–absence fish data for each waterhole, where turnover is quantified according to the number of local colonisations and extinctions related to the number of species in the community (MacArthur and Wilson 1967). A turnover index (Tn) was calculated by dividing the sum total of species that appeared and disappeared between April and September 2001 by the total number of species found during the two sampling periods (cf. Russell et al. 1995). This turnover index ranges from 0 (no change in species composition) to 1 (complete change in species composition). Hierarchical canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to partition the total variance in species–environment relationships into its independent and confounded components, to facilitate tests of the relative importance of factors at different Marine and Freshwater Research 845 organisational levels in driving changes in fish assemblages. This analysis uses a series of partial canonical ordinations to decompose species–environment relationships into a hierarchically structured data set (Anderson and Gribble 1998; Cushman and McGarigal 2002). Following Cushman and McGarigal (2002), environmental variables from the three spatial scales of measurement and five categories of factors (25 variables; Table 1) were separately subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to derive a reduced set of independent, composite variables that summarise the major patterns of environmental variation in each category. The statistical significance of the principal component axes was evaluated using the broken-stick rule, where the observed eigenvalues are compared with eigenvalues from random data (Peres-Neto et al. 2003). For all five categories of environmental factors, the first two principal components were found to be significant and were subsequently used as predictor variables in the hierarchical CCA. In summary, the hierarchical CCA was based on 10 principal components, four describing within-waterhole variation (two habitat, two morphology), four entire waterhole (two quality/quantity, two morphology) and two catchment/floodplain variables. Using the results from the PCA, we selected eight waterhole variables that explained the dominant gradients of variation for inclusion in a CCA. Univariate normality of the variables was explored and present in all instances, thus meeting the assumptions required for the PCA and CCA. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was then used to model community-level turnover and species change as a function of the 25 variables describing waterhole physical characteristics and water chemistry (Table 1). Three Lake Eyre Basin endemics were selected for the species level analysis: desert rainbowfish (Melanotaenia splendida tatei), the Lake Eyre yellowbelly (Macquaria sp. B) and the Cooper Creek tandan (Neosiluroides cooperensis). We also included northwest ambassis (Ambassis sp.) and the Barcoo grunter (Scortum barcoo) because we were interested in why these particular species were lost so often from drying waterholes. The CART analysis is a machine-learning technique that can operate on mixed variable types; these analyses are invariant to monotonic transformations of data and are well suited for modelling the non-linear and non-additive associations typical of species–environment relationships (De’ath and Fabricus 2000; Olden et al. 2008). CART uses a recursive partitioning algorithm to split data into a nested series of mutually exclusive groups with the goal of maximising homogeneity of the response variable. We used the Gini impurity criterion to determine the optimal variable splits (minimum parent node size: n ¼ 5; minimal terminal node size: n ¼ 2), and determined the optimal size of the decision tree by constructing a series of cross-validated trees and selecting the smallest tree based on the one-standard-error rule (De’ath and Fabricus 2000). Model performance for community turnover (regression tree) was assessed using the Pearson’s productmoment correlation coefficient and for species change (classification tree) using correct classification rate; both were calculated using n-fold cross-validation. Variable importance was determined by calculating for each variable at each node the change in Gini impurity attributed to the best surrogate split on that variable. The values of these deltas are summed over each node and totalled, and scaled relative to the best-performing variable, that is, they are expressed as relative importance on a scale of 0–100 846 Marine and Freshwater Research A. H. Arthington et al. Table 1. List of the 25 physical and water quantity/quality variables measured or estimated at the three spatial scales (floodplain, entire waterhole and within waterhole) on one or both fish sampling occasions (April and September 2001) The eight waterhole variables from the principal components analysis that explained the dominant gradients of variation for inclusion in the canonical correspondence analysis are presented in bold face Variable category Description Units Floodplain Effective floodplain width (EFW) Floodplain setting (FS) Bifurcation ratio (BR) Channel distance to nearest waterhole (CD) Straight-line distance to nearest waterhole (SLD) m Entire Waterhole Morphology/Size Water Quality/Quantity Within Waterhole Morphology/Complexity Habitat Cross-sectional area (CSA) Bankfull depth (D) Hydraulic radius (HR) Wetted perimeter (WP) Circularity index (CI) Gross primary production (GPP) Water loss (WL) Water temperature (WT) pH (PH) Dissolved O2 (O2) Bench 0 ] 1/3 (B1) Bench 1/3 – 2/3 (B2) Bench 2/3 – 3/3 (B3) Sum of bars (BAR) Off-take channels (OC) Bed and bank complexity (BBC) Eroding banks (EB) Snags (SN) Boulders (BOU) Sum of vegetation (VEG) km km m2 m m % % % % % Range 748–7076 0.0126–1.9369 0.0004–0.0023 1.18–18.98 1.11–7.95 77.3–474.1 2.48–6.72 1.51–4.41 8.9–149.5 0.019–0.765 3.8–800 4.3–73.9 28.3–32.8 6–10.1 71.3–144.4 0.3–1.5 0.03–1.20 0–0.94 0.6–2.7 0.077–1.324 0.005–0.076 0–0.778 0–1.864 0–0.18 0.2–1.9 EFW, distance from obstructions such as sand hills to the edge of the floodplain; FS, ratio of the distance from a waterhole to the right and left floodplain edge; BR, degree of floodplain dissection (number of channels present on a floodplain divided by floodplain width). Bankfull cross-sectional area, width : depth ratio, wetted perimeter, bankfull depth, volume, hydraulic radius (ratio of cross-sectional area to the wetted perimeter, effectively giving a measure of mean depth) and circularity index (CI ¼ 4pA/P2, where A is the surface area and P is the perimeter of the waterhole; waterholes are more circular in shape when values approach one compared with more elongate waterhole shapes with CI values close to zero) were calculated from cross-sections (5–20) surveyed at 500-m intervals along each waterhole. Waterhole variables (morphology/complexity, habitat) were recorded as presence/absence at 100-m intervals along each waterhole and standardised for waterhole size by dividing the number of positive readings by the number of observation intervals. (Breiman et al. 1984). All analyses were performed in R (R Development Core Team 2008). Results Fish assemblages of Cooper Creek waterholes The fish fauna of Cooper Creek waterholes comprised 12 indigenous fish species in eight families and two alien species: the goldfish Carassius auratus and the mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki (Table 2). Indigenous species richness per waterhole based on all sampling methods was 7–11 species in April and 4–8 species in September 2001. Patterns of species occurrence across the 15 waterholes, and species abundances in each waterhole on the two sampling occasions, were highly variable based on catch per unit effort data derived from standardised fyke net sampling (Table 2). Five widespread indigenous species contributed 96% of the total catch based on standardised fyke net sampling of waterhole assemblages. These species were the silver tandan Porochilus argenteus (45.5%), north-west Ambassis (19.9%), spangled perch Leiopotherapon unicolor (12.5%), bony herring Nematalosa erebi (9.7%) and Hyrtl’s tandan Neosilurus hyrtlii (8.4%). The Barcoo grunter Scortum barcoo comprised 2.6% of the total catch and was collected from all 15 waterholes in April 2001 (Table 2). The three Lake Eyre Basin endemics (the desert rainbowfish Melanotaenia splendida tatei, the Lake Eyre yellowbelly Macquaria sp. B and Welch’s grunter Bidyanus welchi) were found in variable numbers of waterholes in April 2001, and were relatively abundant at some sites, whereas the endemic Cooper Creek tandan (Neosiluroides cooperensis) was rare in comparison (Table 2). Assemblage level changes over time Waterhole fish assemblages showed substantial changes in species composition over time. For the entire fish fauna, the predominant pattern was the persistence of widespread and 14 15 2 12 14 4 15 15 2 4 15 15 10 3 Bony herring Carp gudgeons Desert rainbowfish Lake Eyre golden perch Cooper Creek tandan Hyrtl’s tandan Silver tandan Australian smelt Welch’s grunter Spangled perch Barcoo grunter Goldfish Mosquitofish No. waterholes where present in April 2001 North-west ambassis Common name 2 8 2 13 14 2 0 13 4 6 1 15.3 11.4 (0–171) 14.9 3.6 (0–41) 1.0 0.5 (0–6) 418 215 (1–2872) 2201 1411 (21–20 229) 0.13 0.13 (0–2) 0.87 0.47 (0–6) 664 406 (0–2) 146 120 (0–1825) 3.7 1.2 (0–13) 0.13 0.13 (0–2) 9 13 396 323 (11–4920) 0A 9 No. of waterholes where present in September 2001 1071 1009 (0–15 179) Mean s.e. (range) of CPUE in April 2001 Hypseleotris spp. was not collected in fyke net samples in April 2001, but was collected by other methods so is included in the species list. A Indigenous species Chandidae Ambassis sp. Clupeidae Nematalosa erebi (Günther, 1868) Gobiidae Hypseleotris spp. Melanotaeniidae Melanotaenia splendida tatei (Zietz, 1896) Percichthyidae Macquaria sp. B (after Musyl and Keenan, 1992) Plotosidae Neosiluroides cooperensis Allen and Feinberg, 1998 Neosilurus hyrtlii Steindachner, 1867 Porochilus argenteus (Zietz, 1896) Retropinnidae Retropinna semoni (Weber, 1895) Terapontidae Bidyanus welchi (McCulloch and Waite, 1917) Leiopotherapon unicolor (Günther, 1859) Scortum barcoo (McCulloch and Waite, 1917) Alien species Cyprinidae Carassius auratus Linnaeus, 1758 Poeciliidae Gambusia holbrooki (Girard, 1859) Family/species 0 1.2 0.6 (0–13) 0 25.8 7.1 (0–93) 1.20 0.84 (0–12) 0.07 0.07 (0–1) 0.50 0.41 (0–6) 19.8 6.2 (0–63) 162 49 (0–689) 4.7 2.0 (0–23) 0.13 0.13 (0–1) 0.13 0.09 (0–2) 70.9 23.7 (0–279) 32.6 27.1 (0–410) Mean s.e. (range) of CPUE in September 2001 Table 2. Fish species found in waterholes of the Thomson River, Cooper Creek and Kyabra Creek based on all four sampling methods, and the mean 6 standard error and (range) of catch per unit effort (CPUE) for fyke net samples collected in April and September 2001 Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia Marine and Freshwater Research 847 848 Marine and Freshwater Research A. H. Arthington et al. relatively abundant species, contrasting with losses of less abundant species (Table 2). In total, there were 55 species losses across the 15 waterholes. Gains of one or occasionally two species were recorded in 11 of the 15 individual waterholes. Seven of these ‘gains’ involved small gudgeons of the genus Hypseleotris, which are usually too small to capture in fyke nets (see zero to extremely low catches recorded in Table 2), but are more readily caught by seine and plankton nets. Three other uncommon species were recorded as ‘gains’ – the Cooper tandan (N. cooperensis), the goldfish (C. auratus) and the mosquitofish (G. holbrooki). The desert rainbowfish (M. s. tatei), a common, but generally not abundant species, was recorded as ‘gained’ in one waterhole and lost from 11. Community turnover rates varied from 0.11 (one species gained, one lost) at Glenmurken waterhole in the Windorah reach, to 0.57 (seven species lost, one gained) at Yorakah waterhole in the Tanbar reach (Fig. 2). Among the common species, the silver tandan P. argenteus (45.5% of total catch) was lost from only one waterhole (Yorakah in the Tanbar reach), the spangled perch L. unicolor (12.5% of total catch) and the bony herring N. erebi (9.7% of total catch) were each lost from two waterholes, while the species most often lost (from 11 waterholes) were desert rainbowfish and Barcoo grunter (Scortum barcoo). Environmental variables explaining assemblage level change over time Results from the CCA based on the eight most important environmental variables identified by the PCA show the similarities and differences in assemblage change among the 15 waterholes in relation to the dominant environmental gradients (Fig. 2). The first and second CCA axes explained 20.5% and 15.0% of the total variation in turnover, respectively. In general, CCA 1 represents a gradient of increasing change in fish assemblages from right to left of this axis, with high eroding banks and depth corresponding to high assemblage change. Waterholes OSF (One-Mile, Springfield) and TBT (Tanbar) showed similar patterns of assemblage change and were characterised by high GPP and locations towards the centre of their respective floodplains, whereas YLT (Yalungah, Tanbar) and YPT (Yappi, Tanbar) had similar patterns of assemblage change associated with high floodplain width. We used hierarchical CCA based on 10 principal components from the PCA to determine the relative amount of variation in assemblage change explained by different levels of the environmental hierarchy. For all five categories, the first two components of the PCA were significant, and together explained the following percentages of variation: catchment/floodplain scale (72%), waterhole morphology (79%), waterhole water quality/ quantity (67%), within-waterhole morphology (76%) and withinwaterhole habitat (70%). Results of the hierarchical CCA are shown in a Venn diagram (Fig. 3). This analysis found that 74% of variation in fish assemblage change could be explained by all 10 descriptors of floodplain and waterhole characteristics taking effect independently and through interactions. Waterhole variables (depth, wetted perimeter, temperature and GPP) explained most variation in assemblage change (33.7%), followed by waterhole habitat variables (morphological complexity and eroded banks), which explained 21.4%. Variables describing floodplain size and waterhole position on the floodplain explained 12.1% of the variation in fish assemblage change, and interactions across the three spatial scales and their variable sets explained 6.8%. The CART analysis revealed the specific interactions of the environmental variables and their effects on assemblage change and species’ losses. Regression tree analysis formulated five relatively homogenous groups of sites and five 3 CCA 2 (15.0% variation explained) OSF 2 GPP 1 YKT TBT FloodplainSet Eroding banks 0 MFW Depth MWW BHN HSF Perimeter THN Bench1 TemperatureWSF SHW WLN PHN GMW 1 FloodplainWidth YLT 2 2 1 0 1 YPT 2 CCA 1 (20.5% variation explained) Fig. 2. Ordination plot resulting from the canonical correspondence analysis examining the association between species loss and the physical and water quantity/quality variables of the waterholes. The three letter codes refer to the waterholes (codes defined in Fig. 1) and the vectors represent the strength and direction of the association between the predictor variables and the ordination axes. Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia Marine and Freshwater Research 849 Habitat only Catchment Morphology only Within Waterhole Habitat Waterhole Morphology Quality/Quantity only Quality/Quantity Morphology only Morphology Fig. 3. Results of first-tier and second-tier decompositions of the influence of catchment-level, waterhole-level and within-waterhole-level factors on fish species turnover. The area of each rectangular cell is proportional to the variance accounted for by that component. The numbers in the components list the percentage of the explained variance accounted for by each component. The solid arrows are from first-tier circles to second-tier marginal decompositions, and the dotted arrows are from first-tier independent effects to second-tier conditional decompositions. Turnover 0.28 s Ye Eroding banks 0.64 Turnover 0.50 Turnover 0.25 Wetted perimeter 66.4 m Turnover 0.20 pH 0.6% Turnover 0.28 Turnover 0.15 No Turnover 0.30 Floodplain width 1194 m Turnover Turnover 0.31 0.23 Bench 0 (B1) 0.52 Turnover 0.33 Turnover 0.29 Fig. 4. Regression tree predicting community-level species change as a function of key waterhole characteristics. Note that the specific splitdefining values in the tree should not be interpreted as distinct thresholds, but rather as a relative threshold compared with the entire data set. Variable codes are defined in Table 1. environmental variables were identified as predictors of fish assemblage change (Fig. 4), with eroded banks (EB) selected as the first variable splitting the data set and explaining the largest amount of variation in assemblage change (0.50). Although fish assemblage change was lower (0.25) in waterholes with less bank erosion, large waterholes (indicated by a high bankfull wetted perimeter, WP 466.4 m) showed greater change (0.30), especially those located on a wide floodplain (indicated by effective floodplain width, EFW 41194 m) with only shallow in-channel benches (B1 0.52). In this group of waterholes, assemblage change was 0.33. In smaller waterholes (W 66.4 m), changes in fish assemblages were higher (0.28) where pH increased by o0.6%. Environmental variables explaining species level change over time Three Lake Eyre Basin endemics, the north-west Ambassis and the Barcoo grunter (S. barcoo) were selected for modelling environmental factors driving species losses. Classification trees revealed the individual and interacting environmental variables that most affected losses of these species. The north-west Ambassis (80% correct classification) persisted in 10 waterholes, but was lost from five (Fig. 5a). Losses in four waterholes were associated with high levels of bank erosion (EB44.2) and low channel and bank irregularities (hydraulic radius (HR) 3.0). In shallower waterholes (bankful depth 6.3 m) with low levels of bank erosion, there were no losses of this species over time. The desert rainbowfish M. s. tatei 850 Marine and Freshwater Research A. H. Arthington et al. (a) Ambassis sp. 10 5 No (b) Melanotaenia splendida tatei 9 1 Depth 6.3 m 1 4 1 3 Hydraulic radius 3.0 9 1 4 1 No change Loss Loss No change 11 11 Bench 1 1.4 Ye s Ye s Eroding banks 4.2 11 2 Temp. 33% 1 11 1 No change 6 Ye s 9 Off-take channels 0.68 No 8 1 1 No change Loss 1 Gain 11 Loss 2 5 (d ) Neosiluroides cooperensis Floodplain setting 0.56 2 1 Ye Loss No change 2 9 s Ye No 4 9 2 1 No 3 Loss 9 Depth 5.3 m 9 1 No change Loss 2 Floodplain width 9.534 m Loss 1 11 Gain Loss 11 Loss 4 GPP 2.5% (e) Scortum barcoo BBC 0.04 9 Depth 5.4 m s 5 4 No change Water loss 6.2% (c) Macquaria sp. B No 4 No change KEY: Gain No change Loss Fig. 5. Classification trees discriminating among Cooper Creek waterholes that lost a species (black bar), gained a species (grey bar) or showed no change (white bar) between April and September 2001 as a function of waterhole characteristics. Species modelled included (a) Ambassis sp., (b) Melanataenia s. tatei, (c) Macquaria sp. B, (d) Neosiluroides cooperensis and (e) Scortum barcoo. Bar width reflects the number of waterholes (values also presented as text). (87% correct classification) showed three instances of no change over time, one gain and 11 losses; these were associated with low levels of bench development, especially in waterholes with marked decreases in water temperature and46.2% loss of water by volume over the dry season (Fig. 5b). The Lake Eyre yellowbelly Macquaria sp. B (87% correct classification) persisted in eight waterholes and was lost from six others (Fig. 5c). Most of these losses were from waterholes with higher numbers of off-take channels, except in waterholes located close to the middle of the left and right floodplain boundaries (indicated by floodplain setting 40.56). Waterholes located closer to the edges of the floodplain (i.e. more isolated from other waterholes and from the influence of floods) showed greater losses. At this bifurcation of the classification tree, water temperature was a surrogate variable, where decreases in temperature over the dry season were associated with more losses of Lake Eyre yellowbelly. The Cooper Creek tandan (93% correct classification) showed nine instances of no change over time, two gains and four losses (Fig. 5d). Deeper waterholes (45.4 m) experienced most of the losses of this species, whereas shallow waterholes with increased GPP over the dry season were able to retain this species. For the Barcoo grunter (93% correct classification), the most important variables Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia explaining 11 losses were low levels of bed and bank complexity (BBC) and low floodplain width (Fig. 5e). There were no gains recorded for this species and four waterholes remained unchanged. Discussion Fish assemblages of Cooper Creek waterholes The fauna of the study area included four species confined to central Australia – the endemic Cooper Creek tandan (N. cooperensis), the Lake Eyre yellowbelly (Macquaria sp. B), the desert rainbowfish (M. s. tatei) and Welch’s grunter (B. welchi). Five species collected have a tropical and central Australian distribution – P. argenteus, N. hyrtlii, L. unicolor, north-west Ambassis and S. barcoo. The Australian smelt, R. semoni, has a subtropical and temperate distribution and N. erebi is widespread in central, eastern and northern Australia (Allen et al. 2002; Pusey et al. 2004). Assemblage level changes over time Patterns of species assemblage change in Cooper Creek waterholes during the 2001 seasonal dry period were dominated by the persistence of common and abundant species and by losses of species of lower abundance, including four Lake Eyre Basin endemics. There were 55 instances of species loss across 15 waterholes. However, five species not captured or sighted in particular waterholes in April 2001 were caught in those waterholes in September, after 6 months of waterhole drying and presumed disconnection. These species ‘gains’ were recorded in 11 of the 15 individual waterholes; however, seven ‘gains’ involved small gudgeons of the genus Hypseleotris. This species is usually too small to capture in fyke nets, but can be more readily caught by seine and plankton nets. The occurrence of gudgeons in September, but not in April probably reflects the greater probability of capture of this species, by all methods, in drying waterholes where fish are more concentrated in low volumes of water. Across 15 waterholes and 14 native and alien fish species, the proportion of ‘gains’ relative to losses was low (20%), and for M. s. tatei it was o10%. These figures may serve as rough estimates of the number of instances where a species recorded as ‘lost’ in September was actually missed during sampling. We suggest that there was an even lower likelihood of misses in September when drying waterholes had decreased in volume, fish were more concentrated, and all sampling methods were potentially more efficient (Arthington et al. 2005). Certainly there was no evidence of significant fish movements into waterholes. We therefore affirm that changes in waterhole fish assemblages were driven primarily by species losses because a lack of hydrological connectivity and waterhole isolation prevented colonisation events (Hypothesis 1). The prevalence of species losses means that none of the 15 waterholes was able to sustain all 12 indigenous fish species over the drying phase of 2001, with up to six species lost from individual waterholes (maximum turnover 0.57 at Yorakah waterhole in the Tanbar reach). The species most often lost (from 11 waterholes) were the desert rainbowfish (M. s. tatei) and the Barcoo grunter (S. barcoo). Marked assemblage change and the loss of aquatic species from remnant aquatic habitats is a common event in drought-stressed Marine and Freshwater Research 851 streams and rivers (Matthews and Marsh-Matthews 2003; Bond et al. 2008). Such losses are often associated with the loss of suitable stream habitat (Labbe and Fausch 2000; Matthews and Marsh-Matthews 2003; Boys and Thoms 2006). In this study, we have demonstrated that a complex spatial hierarchy of independent and interacting environmental factors affected the habitat characteristics, availability and quality of isolated waterholes, and drove the 55 instances of species loss over the dry season of 2001. The importance of spatial scale was revealed first by CCA, where 74% of variation in fish assemblage change could be explained by descriptors of waterhole morphology, habitat structure and floodplain setting. Most variation in assemblage change (33.7%) was uniquely explained by waterhole morphology (wetted perimeter, depth) and waterhole ‘quality’ (temperature and GPP), with an additional 21.4% of variation explained by within waterhole variables (morphological complexity, habitat structure and bank stability). These findings are consistent with previous studies that explain differences in fish assemblage structure in isolated floodplain waterbodies in terms of habitat structure and quality (Rodriguez and Lewis 1997; Tejerina-Garro et al. 1998; Welcomme et al. 2006). Our study adds another dimension to models of fish assemblage change over dry periods in floodplain rivers – the importance of floodplain size (i.e. width as a surrogate for floodable area) and waterbody position in the surrounding floodplain. In combination, these factors explained an additional 12.1% of variation in change at the assemblage level in Cooper Creek waterholes. Previous studies in floodplain rivers have given prominence to the influence of floodplain size on fish assemblages, with little attention to the floodplain setting of waterbodies. Many studies have found relationships between fish catches in dry season habitats in one year and the size of the flood pulse (or area of floodplain inundated) in the same or in preceding years (Puckridge et al. 2000; Arthington et al. 2005; Welcomme et al. 2006). These relationships arise because inundated floodplains provide important nursery areas for larval and juvenile fishes and also allow older fish to disperse, feed and accumulate sufficient fat reserves to survive the dry season and complete reproduction (Junk et al. 1989; Welcomme 2001; King et al. 2003). In Cooper Creek, all indigenous species (with the possible exception of the Cooper tandan N. cooperensis) use inundated floodplains as juveniles and maturing individuals and/or as spent adults (Balcombe et al. 2005, 2007; Balcombe and Arthington 2009). Our evidence of the influence of antecedent flooding on dry season fish assemblages is also consistent with the work of Puckridge et al. (2000) on the dynamics of fish in the Coongie Lakes, situated on the lower Cooper Creek system. When floodwaters recede off large floodplains, many thousands of fish are available to colonise dry season lagoons, lakes and waterholes (Welcomme 2001; Balcombe et al. 2007). Waterholes that receive more fish, and fish in better condition, are more likely to sustain their fish assemblages over the dry season than those receiving lower numbers and/or fish in relatively poor condition. The importance of the floodplain setting of individual waterholes is probably linked to connectivity potential, with waterholes far out on the edges of a floodplain less likely to be inundated than those situated closer to the centre. However, 852 Marine and Freshwater Research biological connectivity of isolated waterholes may depend also on specific types of pathway for fish movement across a floodplain. For example, channels draining the floodplain can provide depth, velocity and directional cues that ‘funnel’ fish into particular waterholes or floodplain lakes (Bishop et al. 1995; Welcomme 2001). Thus, the characteristics and/or number of floodplain channels connecting individual waterholes, as well as the straight-line distance between waterholes, appear likely to influence overall hydrological and biological connectivity in floodplain systems (Sheldon et al. 2002; Arthington et al. 2005). All of these factors and processes may affect colonisation rates into formerly isolated waterholes and would also influence biophysical conditions within waterholes, and hence fish survival after flood recession and natural drying processes. Our analysis identified the particular environmental factors within the three primary spatial factor sets that were responsible for assemblage and species level changes. The regression tree analysis produced a strong initial result – low levels of bank erosion were conducive to fish persistence, high levels were not. Several erosion processes are likely to be involved (e.g. gully and sheet erosion, bank instability associated with fallen trees and with undercutting of root masses stranded above the falling waterline). Gully and sheet erosion would contribute to siltation of waterholes and possibly to less differentiation of habitat structure, and overall loss of habitat complexity within waterholes (Unmack 2001). Some of the waterholes of Cooper Creek develop at points of flow convergence where the upper layer of clay becomes incised, allowing the sand beneath to be excavated into large pools. As floodwaters subside, the clay particles settle and seal the depressions to create relatively permanent waterholes (Knighton and Nanson 2000). Habitat complexity is not particularly high in Cooper Creek compared with other dryland rivers (e.g. the Finke River in the Alice Springs area; Unmack 2001) and more mesic rivers where rock formations, coarse substrates and large woody debris loads contribute to greater habitat diversity. Bank instability and erosion may contribute to hydrological and sedimentation processes that influence the physical characteristics of waterholes, bringing about changes that have an adverse influence on habitat heterogeneity. Fallen trees, root masses and undercut banks exposed by falling water levels would result in loss of in-stream habitat structure, cover and shelter from piscivorous birds and other fish (Kennard 1995; Pusey et al. 2004; Boys and Thoms 2006). Although assemblage level change was lower in waterholes showing less bank erosion, the regression analysis showed that large waterholes with high wetted perimeter showed greater change, especially those located on wide floodplains and with shallow in-channel benches. Large waterholes situated on wide floodplains are exposed to wind and turbulence factors (Davis et al. 2002) that can influence rates of evaporative water loss, the main process affecting drying rates in Cooper Creek waterholes. Hamilton et al. (2005) found that evaporation rates are highly variable among Cooper Creek waterholes, in part owing to their different sizes, their effective width for wind action, the degree of channel incision below levees and the height and width of riparian vegetation. These features affect wind-induced turbulence at the water surface, exposure of the surface to solar heating and convective air circulation above the water surface (Brutsaert 1982). These factors contribute to the rate of water A. H. Arthington et al. loss in particular waterholes and associated changes in habitat structure, availability and quality. A surprising result was that water loss per se over the dry period did not emerge as a major driving variable in our CART analyses. Instead, the influence of water loss was manifest indirectly by impacts on habitat availability for fishes. With a decline in waterhole depth and volume, waterhole features such as fallen trees, debris from riparian vegetation, root masses, shallow benches and bars and deeper depressions can become exposed and increasingly desiccated, depending on their elevation along the basin profile (Arthington et al. 2005). At low water levels, exposure of such features would reduce the range of sheltered places where fish can rest and forage, take cover from predators, or launch ambush attacks on prey (Kennard 1995; Crook and Robertson 1999; Pusey et al. 2004). In isolated waterholes of Cooper Creek, water loss translates to absolute loss of aquatic habitat as well as changes in habitat heterogeneity, in accord with the first flow ecology principle of Bunn and Arthington (2002). The influence of habitat structure (especially structurally complex habitat such as submerged branches, leaf litter and aquatic vegetation) on fish assemblage structure has been demonstrated in other dry season floodplain habitats (Kennard 1995; Welcomme 2001). Loss/change of habitat is also important in intermittent streams subject to natural periods of low flow or drought (Magoulick and Kobza 2003; Matthews and Marsh-Matthews 2003; Larned et al. 2010). Many studies have found that deterioration in water quality (e.g. salinity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH) is a major factor in species losses from drying streams and isolated floodplain habitats (Rodriguez and Lewis 1997; Magoulick and Kobza 2003; Matthews and Marsh-Matthews 2003). In our study, changes in water chemistry, such as conductivity and nutrient concentrations, did not emerge as important influences on the survival of Cooper Creek fishes, apart from slightly higher levels of assemblage change in small water holes with slight increases in pH. These pH changes may be indicative of biogeochemical processes that can affect fish physiology and behaviour. Other studies have shown that several species in our study area are affected by changes in pH. Balcombe and Arthington (2009) found strong correlations between declining numbers of Barcoo grunter (S. barcoo), spangled perch (L. unicolor) and silver tandan (P. argenteus) and increasing pH associated with waterhole drying in the Windorah reach of Cooper Creek. In summary, this study has demonstrated that a large amount of variation in loss of species from isolated waterholes can be explained by environmental factors operating at three interacting spatial scales (Hypothesis 2). Floodplain size, the position of waterholes on the floodplain, waterhole morphology and bank condition, and the heterogeneity of habitat patches within waterholes are all important correlates of species persistence and species losses. We suggest that these factors can be used to identify waterholes most likely to sustain their fish assemblages over dry periods. Environmental variables explaining species level change over time We examined the drivers of change in the occurrence of three Lake Eyre Basin endemics, north-west Ambassis and the Barcoo Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia grunter (S. barcoo). These geographically restricted and, in some cases, relatively uncommon species may be more at risk from the effects of waterhole drying and loss of high-quality refugia than the more common species with wider geographic distributions. Ensuring the persistence of endemic species in the regional species pool is an important tenet of conservation biology and species recovery plans in disturbed landscapes (Bond and Lake 2003; Knight and Arthington 2008). The desert rainbowfish (M. s. tatei) was lost from more waterholes (11/15) than all other species except the Barcoo grunter (S. barcoo), particularly from waterholes with low levels of bench development, and where increased loss of water over the dry season was associated with decreased water temperature. Rainbowfish are surface feeders and depend on habitat structure and food resources in the upper levels of the water column (Pusey et al. 2004) where water temperatures would be most likely to change over winter months. Surface water temperatures closely mimic air temperature in exposed waterbodies and evaporative loss can also reduce surface temperature (Matthews and Marsh-Matthews 2003). Another small species, the northwest Ambassis, seemed very sensitive to high levels of bank erosion in shallow waterholes (as measured by the hydraulic radius, equivalent to mean depth). This response to seasonal drying may reflect the preference of ambassids for mid to lower water column areas over fine substrates and proximity to cover, such as woody debris and leaf litter (Pusey et al. 2004). Bank erosion may bring about loss or smothering of such habitat elements in the more eroded waterholes, while declining water levels would reduce opportunities for fish to find cover. The Lake Eyre yellowbelly (Macquaria sp. B) is an important recreational fish in Australia’s inland rivers (Wager and Unmack 2000; Pusey et al. 2004). It was lost from six waterholes, particularly those with higher numbers of off-take channels. As water levels fall, pools of water can remain in off-take channels, but these patches of wetted habitat may become isolated from the main body of a waterhole, possibly stranding any fish left behind (Arthington et al. 2005). The CART analysis revealed additional processes at work in that losses of the yellowbelly were higher in waterholes located closer to the edges of the floodplain. Waterholes at these locations are more isolated from the influence of floods and from other waterholes and therefore have lower potential hydrological connectivity with source populations of fish. They may have started the 2001 dry season with less water, poor water quality and diminished food resources compared with waterholes that were connected during the floods of January–February 2000. We recorded relatively low numbers of yellowbelly even at the start of the dry season (mean CPUE 14.9 3.6, range 0–41). Low initial abundances and adverse environmental conditions could have been inimical to fish persistence in waterholes experiencing further water loss over the 2001 dry season. In the decision tree for Macquaria sp. B, decreasing water temperature over the dry season also affected losses of this species. Exposure on the floodplain may have influenced the thermal regime of isolated waterholes, as described above in relation to the effect of decreased water temperatures on the desert rainbowfish (M. s. tatei). Deeper waterholes exhibited losses of the endemic Cooper Creek tandan (N. cooperensis), whereas shallow waterholes Marine and Freshwater Research 853 with increases in GPP over the dry season were able to sustain this species. The fishes of Cooper Creek are ultimately dependent on a shallow ‘bath-tub ring’ of benthic algae (Bunn et al. 2003), which would be likely to achieve greater biomass in shallow sloping littoral zones than in steeper, deeper waterholes. Our result and other studies of trophic ecology in Australian floodplain rivers suggest that the food resources of drying waterholes play an important part in sustaining their fish assemblages (Balcombe et al. 2005; Medeiros and Arthington 2008). This is perhaps especially important for larger species such as the Cooper Creek tandan (N. cooperensis) that feed on large-bodied invertebrates, such as crustaceans and gastropods (Allen et al. 2002), that are themselves sustained by high levels of littoral primary production (Bunn et al. 2003). In this instance, waterhole morphology appears to play a significant role in supporting the aquatic food web and ultimately the production of food resources needed to sustain fish during dry periods. The Barcoo grunter (S. barcoo) was lost from as many waterholes as the rainbowfish (11), but different factors came into play. Losses were associated with low levels of bed and bank complexity and less cover to afford protection from predators while foraging (Kennard 1995; Pusey et al. 2004). This species of grunter was able to persist in waterholes offering more complex habitat structure, but not in those situated on narrow floodplains. This association may reflect the limited capacity of small floodplains to support fish populations during and after flood periods. Arthington et al. (2005) found a correlation between floodplain width (a simple surrogate for the area of floodplain inundated the year before sampling) and numbers of S. barcoo in drying waterholes of Cooper Creek. Smaller floodplains either produced lower numbers of this species, or fewer individuals were returned to waterholes after flood recession, or both processes were involved. An alternative or additional factor affecting the persistence of this grunter in drying waterholes may involve limited delivery of energy sources and nutrients back into waterholes after flood recession (i.e. low floodplain subsidies; Junk et al. 1989). In both cases, fish that benefit from flooding can be expected to transform floodplain energy sources into maintenance and growth, and perhaps elevated survivorship, while they are confined to isolated waterholes (Puckridge et al. 2000). This analysis of endemic and geographically restricted species has revealed the influence of suites of factors that explain a large amount of variation in individual species’ losses from isolated waterholes of Cooper Creek. Each species has been shown to respond to different sets of environmental factors that, in turn, underlie mechanisms of response to drying conditions. The main biological mechanisms are associated with the particular habitat requirements, trophic ecology and physical/ chemical tolerance characteristics of each species (Hypothesis 3). Role of biotic processes The CCA analysis showed that 26% of variation in assemblage level change was unexplained by the 25 factors included in our spatially nested hierarchy of environmental variables. It is always possible that additional variation might be explained by the inclusion of other environmental factors or more refined 854 Marine and Freshwater Research measurement of those included here. A further source of variation would be the influence of biotic processes, such as predation, competition for food resources or space, or exposure to parasites and diseases. These biotic processes account for significant fish mortality in drying waterbodies of mesic and dryland rivers worldwide (Ruello 1976; Jackson et al. 2001; Magoulick and Kobza 2003; Balcombe et al. 2005). Studies in large floodplain rivers suggest that changes in habitat conditions and consequences for predation and competition success become increasingly important with progression of the dry season (Kennard 1995; Rodriguez and Lewis 1997; TejerinaGarro et al. 1998). However, evidence of predation and competition impacts on Cooper Creek fish assemblages is very limited. There appears to be relatively little piscivory in this fish assemblage, with only Ambassis sp., L. unicolor and M. s. tatei reported to consume fish (Balcombe et al. 2005). Moreover, it appears that piscivory occurs mainly on inundated floodplains, where all three species feed on larval or juvenile bony herring (N. erebi) that dominate floodplain fish catches (Balcombe et al. 2007). When fish are confined to isolated waterholes after flood recession, most species in the Cooper Creek assemblage feed on a narrow range of benthic invertebrates and zooplankton; there is no evidence of piscivory in waterhole dietary data. Whether fish are affected by resource or interference competition when habitat availability is declining and food resources are not diverse is unclear. Balcombe et al. (2005) showed that this suite of opportunistic carnivores is able to maintain stomach fullness even when the diversity of food types in isolated waterholes is low. The ability to feed and persist on a few types of food (especially calanoid copepods) during dry periods is an important feeding strategy, given the intermittency of flooding and uncertainty of access to rich floodplain food resources in this arid-zone river (Balcombe et al. 2005). Evidence of disease and parasitism as mortality factors for Cooper Creek fishes is very limited. Fish of the Coongie Lakes region of Cooper Creek are regularly affected by dermatitis caused by Achlya sp. (Puckridge and Drewien 1988). Species affected include the bony herring (N. erebi), Lake Eyre yellowbelly (Macquaria sp.), desert rainbowfish (M. s. tatei) and goldfish (C. auratus). Increased rates of infection by the protozoan parasite Chilodonella hexasticha in central Australian populations of N. erebi have also been associated with decreased winter water temperatures (Pusey et al. 2004). Although N. erebi is generally regarded as a sensitive species, vulnerable to low temperatures and to physical ‘handling’, it is one of the most widespread Australian freshwater fishes (Pusey et al. 2004). This clupeid was able to persist in all but two waterholes over the dry season studied here. Implications for management The survival of fish and other riverine biota during seasonal and prolonged dry periods is a topical issue in Australia during the present ‘millennium drought’ (Bond et al. 2008; Murphy and Timbal 2008). The identification and protection of refugia for obligate aquatic species is of particular interest, for it is these special places and habitats that will sustain enough individuals to repopulate a wider range of habitats when seasonal or prolonged drought conditions come to an end, and more favourable A. H. Arthington et al. conditions are restored (Bond et al. 2008). These are significant issues in every river prone to intermittent flows and habitat fragmentation (Rayner et al. 2009; Larned et al. 2009). In Cooper Creek, a diversity of waterhole fish assemblages is highly variable in space and time, with up to 6 of 12 native species lost from individual waterholes over a single 6-month dry season. However, overall g diversity was constant across the 15 waterholes. Even the rarest species were able to persist in some waterholes. The crucial issue is: which waterholes should be protected to conserve g diversity? Our CCA and CART models offer valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms underlying fish losses from isolated waterholes in Cooper Creek, and should assist in the identification of quality refugia in this river system and, possibly, other dryland rivers. However, in such a dynamic environment, models such as these should be tested over several dry seasons, and preferably over longer periods of waterhole isolation, before we can be certain of their consistency and predictive power and rely on them to nominate particular waterholes as vital refugia for fish. Even then, it will be unwise to base the management of such rivers on the protection of a few select waterholes, given the potential for failure of the wet season and the unpredictable frequency and spatial patterns of flooding, channel flows, connectivity and waterhole replenishment (Puckridge et al. 1998, 2000; Sheldon et al. 2010). A better strategy will be to recognise the special dynamic characteristics of arid-zone rivers and adopt a set of scientific and management principles built around the maintenance of ecosystem resilience. Chief among these scientific principles for arid-zone rivers are the hydrological, sedimentary and biogeochemical processes, and changes to these wrought by human activities, that can affect the characteristics and quality of aquatic refugia and their very existence in the wider landscape (Davies et al. 1994; Kingsford 2006; Wishart 2006). We concur with Larned et al. (2010) and Sheldon et al. (2010) that preservation or restoration of habitat mosaics, connectivity, natural flow intermittence, and identification of flow requirements for highly valued species and processes, are fundamental management principles for all intermittent rivers. Acknowledgements This study contributed to the Dryland River Refugia Project, a multidisciplinary and multi-institutional investigation of environmental factors and processes sustaining waterhole biodiversity in dryland rivers of western Queensland. It was funded by the former Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Freshwater Ecology, Canberra. Completion of this paper was supported by funding from the eWater CRC (Refugium Project). We thank colleagues from the Australian Rivers Institute at Griffith University, the former Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines, and the Murray-Darling Basin Freshwater Research Centre (Northern Basin Laboratory) for field assistance, data on river discharge and valuable discussions. Two anonymous referees and Editors Andrew Boulton and Fran Sheldon provided insightful reviews and comments that greatly improved the manuscript. Thanks are also due to Ben Stuart-Koster for his input to statistical discussions. We are indebted to landowners Bob Morrish (Springfield), Angus Emmott (Noonbah), Sandy Kidd (Mayfield), David Smith (Hammond Downs) and George Scott (Tanbar) for access to waterholes on their properties and for their hospitality and encouragement. Our research was conducted under Queensland Fisheries Permit PRM00157K. Factors driving fish losses in floodplain refugia References Allen, G. R., Midgley, S. H., and Allen, M. (2002). ‘Field Guide to the Freshwater Fishes of Australia.’ (Western Australian Museum: Perth.) Anderson, M. J., and Gribble, N. A. (1998). Partitioning the variation among spatial, temporal and environmental components in a multivariate dataset. Australian Journal of Ecology 23, 158–167. doi:10.1111/J.1442-9993. 1998.TB00713.X Arthington, A. H., Balcombe, S. R., Wilson, G. A., Thoms, M. C., and Marshall, J. (2005). 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