Delivering the UK export ambition November 2013 Figure 1: Share of UK goods and services trade 1990-2012 Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Statistics: Value of trade Total trade ($ billion) Goods Services 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 100 Figure 2: UK historical balance of trade 1970-2012 Source: Office for National Statistics (2013), The Pink Book: 2013 edition Trade in services £ billion Total trade Trade in goods 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 -120 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2003 2003 2002 2002 2001 2001 2000 2000 1999 1999 1998 1998 1997 1997 1996 1996 1995 1995 1994 1994 1993 1993 1992 1992 1991 1991 1990 1990 0 Contents Foreword2 Figure 3: Value and share of UK service exports 2012 Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Statistics: Value and share of world trade Reform comment 3 1 The UK is a strong global exporter but Government targets are unlikely to be met 4 2 Export support from Government is wide ranging but with limited impact 9 3 SMEs seek support and advice from business networks, not Government 14 4 UK businesses need to foster ambition to drive UK export performance 18 5 Gaining access to markets is key to reaching export potential 26 Appendix: Global export benchmarking 35 10.8% 4.1% $3.9bn 1.3% $37.2bn 13.1% 7.5% $85.4bn 30.1% UK share of world exports $36.6bn 12.9% Share of UK service exports 3.3% $3.6bn 1.2% 4.7% $11.6bn 4.1% $11.3bn 4% $2.4bn 0.8% $14.4bn 5% Transport 10.4% $18.8bn 6.6% Travel Government services Communications 2.1% $57.9bn 20.4% 3.9% Construction 18.7% Insurance Financial services 5.4% Computer and information Royalties and licence fees Other business services Personal, cultural and recreational services 19.1% 1 Delivering the UK export ambition / Foreword Foreword The power of exporting to drive growth is one of the few absolute certainties in business. Every day, Barclays sees examples of customers’ prospects being transformed through access to new markets. The UK economy is both incredibly innovative and deeply competitive, and much of that innovation comes from smaller and medium-sized businesses. It is also a mature economy experiencing a period of lower growth, and the environment can be challenging for new businesses striving to gain a foothold. Antony Jenkins Group Chief Executive, Barclays The opportunity to reach new customers overseas can offer businesses a huge boost. As so many of our most successful businesses have discovered, there are large and fast-growing markets elsewhere for a wide range of products, whether high specification manufacturing, luxury goods or professional services. The UK has a remarkable set of advantages; our language, our system of law, our historical relationship with many of the new economies. Even our time zone works in our favour. But it is clear that many businesses feel unable to justify the risk that pitching overseas could represent. The barrier is even more significant for smaller businesses. Leaders often feel they cannot take time away from day to day operations to spend time in new markets, and the fear that a failure could put the business itself in jeopardy is very real. At Barclays we have made significant strides to help customers begin this journey, whether through exports skills seminars for smaller businesses, developing specialist export finance teams, or increasingly by lowering costs for businesses through deploying technology like video conferencing. There is always room for improvement. This report by Reform is an important statement that export policy is as fundamental to creating sustainable growth in the economy as access to finance or regulatory simplification. Its message to Government and larger companies is clear: supporting access to new markets must be a fundamental goal of interventions on behalf of UK business. Our experience is that once a business has begun to export they rarely look back. I hope this report will encourage all parties to think about how to help them make the first step. 2 Delivering the UK export ambition / Reform comment Reform comment Business investment and export growth will be key drivers of economic growth in the next decade. Both the UK and the USA, for example, have set the target to double the value of total exports in the near future. During summer 2013, Reform held a series of events which considered what Government and businesses should do to grow exports and where businesses should go next. Andrew Haldenby Director, Reform The outlook for exports is optimistic. The UK is still a top ten exporter, and “Brand Britain” has strong currency. With the rapidly growing middle-classes of China and the ASEAN tiger economies, there is projected to be an ever-increasing demand for UK luxury goods as well as UK services such as education, financial and legal services, and the creative industries. Yet UK businesses and Government cannot rest on their laurels. The UK needs to double its rate of export growth if it is to meet the target of doubling the value of exports by 2020. It is businesses, and not Governments, who export. In some areas, Government is making a real difference to UK exporters. For example, the focus on commercial diplomacy in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office has led to a forensic focus on target markets for British businesses, leading more businesses to new market opportunities. And UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) support is well regarded by those businesses that have used its services, particularly in high growth and innovative sectors. Yet according to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Small Business Survey, the number of SMEs exporting has actually fallen since 2010. Lauren Thorpe Research & Corporate Partnership Director, Reform Clare Fraser Researcher, Reform The numbers of businesses choosing to export is low. Businesses need confidence if they are going to export and the patchwork quilt of support is perceived as fragmented and poorly signposted. Government intervention must be more focused and targeted in the areas that can really make a difference, such as through strengthening the general business environment and providing access to markets overseas through commercial diplomacy. The private sector must pull its weight too. New research commissioned for this report shows that SMEs are much more likely to seek information and advice from their professional advisers, their own business contacts and their banks than from government agencies. Large exporters often cite that they provide support and advice for companies in their supply chain. Banks are reaching out to their business banking customers, providing access to bank-led trade missions in addition to access to finance. This network of support, however, entirely depends on SMEs’ own ambition, entrepreneurship and bravery. This requires a strong business environment which encourages SMEs to thrive, including in areas such as tax and regulation. Yet other factors are important too. In its favour, the UK is internationally renowned as a crucible for business and innovation, with a position at the top of the “soft power” league table. Yet the UK must be better connected to the world. There are no direct flights to Jakarta or Bogotá, for instance, making it harder for businesses to get to emerging markets. A striking lesson from countries such as Singapore is one of greater integration. The ASEAN countries are becoming increasingly interlinked, acting as a single free trade area and developing a network of 19 Free Trade Agreements with major trading partners. The Minister for Trade and Investment is right to emphasise that growing UK exports is a marathon and not a sprint. As can be observed from experiences overseas, these things take time. Australia began the process two decades ago, and is reaping the rewards now. Singapore took many decades to move up the value chain. As the foundations of global trade continue to shift under our feet, it is important to constantly keep pace with new opportunities. As new markets constantly develop and change, some exporting pioneers are showing what can be done in expanding into new markets. This has to become the norm. This requires a strong effort from Government in commercial diplomacy, forging links in new countries and identifying new trading partners. It needs banks and business support bodies to help scaffold some of the work that SMEs need to do. Most importantly of all, it requires businesses to take risks and develop the ambition to grow overseas. 3 1 The UK is a strong global exporter but Government targets are unlikely to be met 4 Delivering the UK export ambition The UK is the sixth largest economy1 and sixth largest exporter in the world.2 As part of “The National Challenge: Exporting for Growth”, the Government articulated two over-arching targets: >In 2011, the Prime Minister David Cameron MP first set the terms of the Export Challenge, saying that, “Increasing the number of SMEs that sell overseas by 100,000 has the potential to add £30 billion to the UK economy. In other words, if we boost the number that export from around one in five to over one in four we could pretty much wipe out the trade deficit.”3 >In his 2012 Budget, the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne MP made a further pledge to “double our nation’s exports to one trillion pounds this decade.”4 Export growth must double to meet key target The target of doubling the value of UK exports to £1 trillion by 2020 equates to an average annual increase of around £63 billion per year between 2012 and 2020, or a compound annual growth rate of 9 per cent. To put this into context, the average annual rate of growth in total exports from 2000 to 2012 was 5 per cent (an average annual increase of just under £19 billion per year). Figure 4: Total annual UK exports of goods and services Source: Office for National Statistics (2013), The Pink Book: 2013 edition Total exports in £ billion 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Yet trends suggest business exporting is falling, not rising The 2012 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Small Business Survey suggests that the number of SMEs who export is falling. 19 per cent of small businesses are categorised as exporters (down from 24 per cent before the Financial Crisis). Other surveys suggest current levels of 15 per cent5 and 21 per cent.6 This is below the EU average of 25 per cent.7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 World Bank website (2012), National Accounts data, http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/. Accessed November 2013. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Statistics: Global export rankings, 2013. Rt Hon David Cameron MP (2011), “Prime Minister’s speech on exporting and growth”, 10 November. Rt Hon George Osborne MP (2012), “Budget 2012”, 21 March. Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (2012), UK innovation survey 2011. European Commission (2010), Internationalisation of EU SMEs, Final Report. UK Trade and Investment (2011), Britain Open for Business. 5 Delivering the UK export ambition Figure 5: Percentage of total SMEs are estimated to export Source: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2013), Small Business Survey 2012; Reform calculations Percentage of SMEs that export 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006/07 2007/08 2010 2012 Target However measuring the number of exporters is a poor target. The aim to increase the number of companies exporting by 100,000 by 2020 is arbitrary as there is no definitive baseline. The Office for National Statistics Annual Business Survey estimates that there were 201,200 UK businesses exporting in 2011 (10.5 per cent of all SMEs).8 The 2012 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Small Business Survey suggests a much higher number of SME exporters at around 230,000 businesses, and a much larger number of sole traders who export.9 The differences are a result of both figures being based on business surveys, which use different sector bases and samples.10 The significant differences in both data sets into question the effectiveness of a target on the number of businesses exporting. 8 Office for National Statistics (2013), Annual Business Survey 2011. 9 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2013) Small Business Survey 2012. 10 For example, the ONS data set does not include the Financial Services and Insurance industries (which represent 12.4 per cent of exports), or the majority of the agricultural sector. It also does not include businesses that are not registered for PAYE or VAT. 6 Delivering the UK export ambition Doubling exports: the role of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office The Chancellor’s challenge to double exports to £1 trillion by 2020 is a central strand of the Government’s drive to rebalance the economy and deliver sustainable growth. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), and other departments including UKTI and BIS, all have critical roles to play if this ambitious target is to be met. Sir Simon Fraser Permanent Under Secretary and Head of the Diplomatic Service, Foreign and Commonwealth Office Over the past two years we have put commercial and economic diplomacy at the heart of the FCO. We have taken steps to strengthen commercial skills at all levels. We have adjusted our overseas representation to allow us to reinforce and open new missions in many of the fastest growing markets. We have trained 800 staff with the skills to deliver our commercial priorities. We are partnering with the private sector to allow Heads of Missions to spend time in business before they take up their jobs overseas. In May 2011 we launched the Charter for Business which, for the first time, set out a range of FCO commitments to business. With UKTI we are also delivering a number of ambitious initiatives across the globe. The High Value Opportunities programme aims to assist UK businesses secure £10 billion of major projects in key emerging markets. We have appointed eight new trade envoys to champion opportunities for British business, and launched a multimillion pound project aimed at strengthening overseas chambers and business networks to provide vital support for UK SMEs looking to export in a number of key emerging markets. Our Posts are also promoting Britain through the ‘GREAT campaign’ - a visually powerful campaign that is making real strides in promoting the UK as a modern innovative country in which to do business. But this is only a small part of the picture. UK economic success depends upon having the right policies across government and strong global conditions for trade and growth. We are pushing hard to open markets, promote free trade, support pro-growth policies and counter risks to economic stability. This approach lies behind our G8 agenda on tax, trade and transparency, and underpins our on-going work to deliver an ambitious EU-US trade deal that could ultimately be worth £10 billion to the UK and £100 billion to the EU. Are we succeeding? Export volumes in 2012 were flat, reflecting weak global demand and recession in the Eurozone. But figures so far this year are more encouraging. Total UK exports of goods and service in the year to July were almost 2 per cent higher than the same period last year, UK goods exports grew by marginally less – although UK goods exports to China grew by an impressive 15 per cent over the same period. But there remains a long road to travel. As Lord Green the Minister for Trade is keen to emphasise: this is a marathon not a sprint. We intend to stay in the race to the end. 7 Delivering the UK export ambition UK television exports: a great British success story British television programme makers have been creative leaders for as long as television has existed. But as the TV industry has matured, business ingenuity has developed to complement the creative instincts. From Steptoe and Son (the first UK television format export) to Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, British television is now a prize commodity all over the world. John McVay Chief Executive, Producers Alliance for Cinema and Television (Pact) Within the TV ecosystem, the growth and strength of the UK’s independent sector is a great British success story. Ten years ago the sector was an influential creative hub, but business-wise it was a cottage industry. Since 2003, the indie sector has almost doubled in value. The most recent figures show a sector worth £2.8 billion. Last year, those independent companies produced more hours of TV content than all of the BBC channels combined. Export sales of all UK television now accounts for revenues of £1.224 billion.11 The indie sector growth story is a remarkable success, but the exports development is even more extraordinary. Nine years ago the international market for independent UK television content was recorded at £216 million. In 2012 it was worth £838 million.12 Legislation and the right regulatory framework have played their part. The Communications Act 2003 has enabled UK independent production companies. Since the Act came into force, rights and intellectual property ownership has set the UK independent production sector apart from its counterparts all over the world. 11 Pact and UKTI (2013), Television Exports Report. 12 Pact (2013), Annual financial census and survey. 8 UK television exports increased year-on-year through the global economic recession. While terrestrial spending by the public service broadcasters was reduced, the indies looked overseas for new markets. Strong programmes for UK audiences have underpinned this growth and the subsequent demand from international markets. The American market is now worth £475 million and is the UK’s biggest market, accounting for more than a third of revenues from all UK television exports. This market grew by 11 per cent between 2011 and 2012. Major year-on-year growth areas in Pact’s 2013 exports report (considering 2012 sales) were China, India and the Middle East. Latin America and South East Asia also showed strong increases in sales. Sales to China (£12 million) increased by 90 per cent in 2012. Australasia remains the second largest market for UK exports with sales at just over £100 million in 2012. Pact has achieved an elite status among the UKTI accredited trade organisations and with UKTI support it will organise more than 200 companies’ attendance at markets in 2013. Delivering the UK export ambition 2 Export support from Government is wide ranging but with limited impact 9 Delivering the UK export ambition UK Trade and Investment success Over three quarters of businesses that have used UKTI services have been satisfied with the guidance and support that they have received13 and the service offered is widely considered to have improved in recent years. SMEs that have used UKTI support cite an average estimated monetary benefit to their business of £257,000.14 61 per cent of businesses surveyed cite UKTI as supporting them in overcoming barriers, 48 per cent believe the support has helped them to enter new markets, and 34 per cent say they have innovated more having used UKTI services. UKTI has a target to assist 50,000 small and medium sized businesses a year by 2015, more than double its current level of assistance of 20,000.15 Yet UKTI does not have the capacity to significantly increase the scale of its support. Figure 6: Number of SMEs that UKTI aims to assist annually Source: Department for Business Innovation and Skills (2012), The Trade and Investment for Growth White Paper: Progress and Achievements in Year One Number of SMEs supported 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 A web of Government support The landscape of Government support for SMEs is complex to navigate, which means that takeup of these schemes is low. Only 50 per cent of small business exporters are aware of the support offered by UKTI, and only 19 per cent have accessed their services. There is also significant variation in the use of Government-funded business support services across the UK. Although the recipients of UKTI and UKEF support consider the schemes to be effective, the number of SMEs which these programmes manage to reach is still small. For example, though UKEF is the Government’s primary funding source for small businesses, most support is in fact delivered to large exporters in the Defence, Aerospace and Civil industries.16 While it provided £4.3 billion in support to British businesses in 2012-1317 it supports less than 1 per cent of British exports overall, and only 13 per cent of SMEs are aware of its services. 18 There is also significant variation in the level of support according to region. Almost twice as many businesses in the North East, Yorkshire and Humber did not seek any advice in the last 12 months as in Greater London.19 13UKTI Performance & Impact Monitoring Survey (2013), “PIMS Position at Q1 FY 2013/14 Summary Results (PIMS 28-31) (Part 4)”. 14UKTI Performance & Impact Monitoring Survey (2012), “Pims 24-27 Report (Part 2)”. 15However, this input measure only monitors the number of businesses initially contacted, and not the number who export. 16House of Lords Select Committee on Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (2013), Roads to Success: SME Exports. 17 UK Export Finance (2013), “UK Export Finance support to British exporters at a 12-year high”, Press Release. 18 APPG on International Corporate Responsibility (2012), Exploring the tension between trade and responsibility. 19 BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013. 10 Delivering Figure 7: System of Government supportthe UK export ambition / Chapter title Source: UKTI (2011), Britain Open for Business; HM Treasury and BIS (2011), The plan for growth; HMRC (2012), Business plan 2012-15; FCO (2011), Charter for business Targets High Value Opportunities Intensive support for 76 overseas procurement contracts valued at £250 million or more DH Department of Health International Education Strategy Healthcare UK Secure £3 billion in high value overseas education contracts by 2020 Boost the profile of the UK health sector overseas MOD Ministry of Defence Decrease net migration to 100,000 a year by the end of the next Parliament Home Office Double DfID’s investment in higher education partnerships UKTI UK Trade & Investment Passport to Export Increase the number of SMEs exporting by 100,000 by 2020 Double the value of UK exports to £1 trillion by 2020 Overseas Marketing Introduction Service National Export Week Tradeshow Access Programme Export support team Business Bank Supporting finance for SMEs with £1 billion of new Government capital and £2.9billion of existing capital alongside private sector contributions Fully operational by Autumn 2014 National Export Challenge Export Marketing Research Scheme Inititatives Defence and Security Organisation Increase the number of overseas students by 90,000 by 2018 Gateway to global growth Departments BIS Department for Business, Innovation & Skills Coaching for Growth Programme Coaching and support for high growth potential SMEs Britain Open for Business Business Opportunities Service The Plan for Growth Give assistance to 50,000 businesses by 2014-15 UKEF UK Export Finance 3 new trade finance products: Bond Support Scheme Export Working Capital Scheme Foreign Exchange Credit Support Scheme Charter for Business Overseas Security Information for Business Equip staff with necessary skills FCO Foreign & Commonwealth Office Prioritise supporting businesses abroad HMT HM Treasury Support commercial and economic interests within foreign policy HMRC Business Plan 2012-15 Overseas Business Risk Service Double SME education activity within HMRC by 2015 2 new departments: Reduce the annual cost of business administration by £250 million by 2015 Economics Unit Commercial and Economic Diplomacy Department 11 HMRC HM Revenue & Customs Give all SMEs access to their tax documents online by 2015 11 Delivering the UK export ambition In one case, targets set by different departments are uncoordinated and have conflicting outcomes. The Home Office visa restrictions and immigration targets undermine the ability of UKTI and BIS to reach their target of 90,000 overseas students by 2018. Targeting support limits coverage UKTI’s export strategy aims to “rebalance the economy” through targeting high-growth and innovative sectors which it hopes will contribute the most the nation’s economy over the coming decades. UKTI has identified 18 “priority sectors” in which to target its efforts. As a result, some SMEs will receive more access to support than those in other sectors and regions. Table 1: Government priority sectors Source: UKTI (2011), Britain Open for Business Advanced manufacturing Defence and security Infrastructure Healthcare and life sciences Services Aerospace Agrifood Automotive Chemicals Energy Defence Security Construction Environment and water Transport (airports, marine, ports, railways) Healthcare Industrial biotechnology Pharmaceuticals and medical biotechnology Creative industries Education, skills and training Financial services Professional and business services Retail Technology Low carbon 12 Delivering the UK export ambition Where Case study next? Growing the UK export market Title of case study here It is ironic that a seafaring nation with a great trading history should find itself coming from behind in the competition for the new growth markets of the world. But that is the situation in which we find ourselves, for reasons that are rooted in the post empire blues and decline of manufacturing that characterised the second half of the twentieth century. Margot James MP Member of Parliament for Stourbridge and Chair, All Party Parliamentary Group for Trade and Investment Fortunately during that time the UK’s service sector grew exponentially and we can look to that sector for continued and improved growth in exports. There is of course a superb advanced technology and manufacturing sector that is coming back to full strength, and is clearly benefiting from this government’s strategy of re-balancing the economy towards manufacturing, exports and regions beyond London and the South East. Only this week we had the excellent news that the stranglehold Boeing exerts over some of the world’s aviation market was broken by Japan Airlines signing up Airbus for its next generation aircraft. An order which will include Rolls Royce Trent XWB engines manufactured in Derby, unparalleled world class engines. Britain’s exports have at last shown encouraging signs with an overall increase of 3.6 per cent, the best upturn since 2011. What the headline figures mask is just how much better exports are to markets outside the EU. Food and drink exports to China for the past year are up 126 per cent, and to South Africa and Hong Kong, up 25 per cent. We can and should be doing both of course. British exports to other EU member states still account for 50 per cent of total exports. Whilst we need to build our presence in the newer growing economies of the world it would be insane to back pedal on our core markets. Many companies who are starting to export prefer to start closer to home anyway; before they reach out to the Brazils and the Indonesias. This year, the completion of the Free Trade Agreement with South Korea and the start of negotiations with the US for a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership deal will provide huge opportunities for British business through our membership of the EU. Government policy, manifested by the support for exporters from UKTI and UKEF, must continue to focus on companies exporting to the growth markets. One thing we must do is to ensure that these markets are assessed individually. The markets of South East Asia for example are as different from each other as are the markets of the EU. The tailored support available from the combined forces of UKTI, the Foreign Office and overseas British Chambers of Commerce in countries like Indonesia, Turkey, Nigeria and many more will help companies decide how to build their global presence market by market. 13 Delivering the UK export ambition 3 Title SMEs seek support and advice from business networks, not Government Author’s Name Author Title here 14 Delivering the UK export ambition While there is broad ranging and far reaching government support for increasing UK business’ export potential, businesses are more likely to seek support from business networks. Findings from a new survey conducted by Barclays Business Banking in July and August 2013 showed that in the last 12 months, the most likely source of advice for SMEs was an accountant. The second most likely place that SMEs would go for advice is a bank. Only 12 per cent of businesses cite the use of Government-funded services in the last 12 months.20 Other surveys offer similar findings.21 Businesses in the manufacturing sector are least likely to seek advice from business networks and government-funded services (both 11 per cent), while 19 per cent of service sector businesses accessed advice from business networks and 17 per cent sought information via governmentfunded services. Small businesses with turnover between £50,000 and £100,000 were least likely to seek advice from government-funded services (7 per cent), and businesses with turnover of £250,000 to £500,000 most likely to (24 per cent). Table 2: Where SMEs sought information and advice in the last 12 months Source: BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013 SME Employers (per cent) Accountant Customers, suppliers and other business people Bank Family and friends Business networks (like Chambers of Commerce, Trade Associations, CBI, FSB, etc) 50 30 30 25 17 Government-funded services (like UKTI, Business Link, HMRC, other government departments and web-sites, Local Enterprise Partnerships, Business Coaching for Growth, etc) 12 Media Other business advisors Don’t know None/I have not sought advice in the last 12 months 13 11 1 28 It is clear that business networks can offer an effective route to providing business with support to export. Businesses would most like to see this support delivered through “face to face contact with an advisor” (67 per cent), regardless of the size of the business.22 20 BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013. 21 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2013), 2012 Small Business Survey – Growth Special Report. 22 BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013. 15 Delivering the UK export ambition Accountants Chartered accountants and small practices deliver business advice to over 1.5 million businesses in the UK.23 As the main source of advice for SMEs they are well placed to provide export advice and signposting. Banks While banks have faced criticism from Government over the accessibility of available finance for businesses to fund exports24, they are one of the first places that SMEs look to for help and advice. It is not clear whether lack of access to lending or lack of appetite for borrowing is the cause of low figures for small business lending.25 Moreover, banks are uniquely places to offer support on exporting. To quote one recent study, if a bank is “very knowledgeable about overseas business opportunities either through its own banking activities or transactions with client firms with experience in exporting, potential exporter firms would find it helpful to consult with such a bank.”26 Increasingly, high street business banks are able to offer advice and services to small businesses to support exporting. Business networks The potential role for business networks in promoting exports is significant. Membership bodies and business networks are able to strongly support exports and highlight successful experiences of other members. Such organisations can also leverage their international networks to set out potential markets and partner opportunities overseas. At the start of 2012, 40,000 were members of the IoD, 104,000 of the BCC and 200,000 of the FSB.27 Supply chains SMEs are a vital part of the supply chains of larger exporters. For example, there are at least 10,000 SMEs in the advanced manufacturing sector alone.28 23 Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (2012), Export Challenge: A small practice view. 24 HM Treasury and Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2011), The Plan for Growth. 25 House of Lords Select Committee on Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (2013), Roads to Success: SME Exports. 26 Inui, T. et al (2013), “Firms’ Export Behavior and the Role of Banks’ Overseas Information”, Economic and Social Research Institute, Japan. 27 House of Lords Select Committee on Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (2013), Roads to Success: SME Exports. 28 Lord Green of Hurstpierpoint (2011), SME exporting: The National Challenge, 10 November. 16 Delivering the UK export ambition Case Study 1 Case study Title of case study here Project finance is the key to the export puzzle Biwater Holdings Ltd Access to clean potable water and the management of sanitation affects everyone, everywhere. Responding to global requirements for solutions that solve the world’s most pressing waterrelated challenges, Biwater naturally took to exporting its products and services worldwide from its headquarters in Dorking, Surrey. Since 1968, the Biwater Group has completed over 25,000 water projects in over 90 countries, leading the way in the financing, design, construction, operation and maintenance of water and wastewater treatment plants, in both rural and urban environments. Furthermore, the Group has owned and run water companies across the world, from Chile to China, ensuring the efficient operation of water distribution and collector networks. Currently, 100 per cent of the Group’s water and wastewater projects are taking place outside the UK. Increases in exporting activities have gone hand-in-hand with the growth of the company, and have had a positive impact on turnover, allowing the Group to attract the industry’s best engineers and continue its development of innovation through the research and development of the latest technologies. Biwater utilises the support offered by the British Government, participating in trade missions through its UK Trade and Investment Division (UKTI) as well as finance facilities open to exporters from its UK Export Finance Division (UKEF). Adrian White, Chairman Biwater has gained recognition for its innovative approaches, and has been the recipient of the Queens Award to Industry and for Export Achievement five times. The company’s success lies with its ability to implement ground-breaking technologies and source unique financial solutions for its clients. Biwater’s innovative funding methods – and unrivalled relationships with lending institutions and export credit agencies – provides the Group with methods of delivering solutions to communities that are desperate for water or sanitation treatment; areas that previously were not able, or could not afford, to tackle large-scale water infrastructure projects. 17 Delivering the UK export ambition 4 UK businesses need to foster ambition to drive UK export performance 18 Delivering the UK export ambition Business ambition and confidence are both crucial factors in the decision to export. Yet the number of businesses seeking advice on exports is low. Only 4 per cent had sought advice on exporting in the 12 months to July.29 Businesses with over 51 employees are twice as likely (6 per cent) to have sought advice on exporting than those businesses with between two and five employees. Table 3: Areas in which businesses have been actively seeking specialist advice or information over the last 12 months Source: BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013 SME Employers (per cent) Accounting Sales and marketing Regulations and compliance Financing Information technologies Manufacturing or service delivery Education, training and skills New product development Environmental management Supply chain management Other human resources management Exporting Other 36 35 30 24 23 19 18 17 14 10 9 4 8 The number of businesses seeking advice on exports also varies considerably based on the size of the business. Businesses with higher turnover are, in general, more likely to have sought export advice in the last 12 months. Table 4: Percentage of businesses seeking advice on exporting in the last 12 months, by turnover Source: BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013 Turnover £50,000 - 100,000 £100,000 - 250,000 £250,000 – 500,000 £500,000 – 1 million £1 million – 5 million £5 million – 20 million > £20 million SME Employers (per cent) 3 1 3 7 9 11 16 This low propensity to seek advice on exports can be explained by research suggesting that 43 per cent of companies with the potential to export “do not have a product or service suitable for exporting.” A further 41 per cent of potential exporters do not have the appetite to export – either “exporting is not part of the business plan” or they consider themselves to have “sufficient business in the UK already.” 29 BDRC SME Omnibus Survey, research conducted for Barclays Business Banking, Jul-Aug 2013. 19 Delivering the UK export ambition Figure 8: The response of potential exporters to the question “What are the barriers that prevent your business exporting?” Source: Mion, G. and Novy, D. (2013), “Gaining further understanding of the factors which influence export engagement among UK SMEs”, May 2013. 24% Exporting is not part of the business plan 43% 17% We have sufficient business in the UK already We do not have a product or service suitable for exporting 16% Other Similar surveys offer similar findings with lack of product and a level of contentment with the current business being most widely cited as reasons not to export. Other reasons include: “limited knowledge of the commercial aspects of exporting”, “difficulty finding overseas customers, agents and/or distributors” and “difficulty sourcing market information/identifying export opportunities.”30 30 British Chamber of Commerce (2013), Exporting is good for Britain but market barriers stifle opportunities. 20 Delivering the UK export ambition The Singapore Experience It is not possible to distil some 50 years of constantly evolving policies behind Singapore’s export-driven economy into 500 words or less but foolishly, I will try to do so. His Excellency Mr Thambynathan Jasudasen High Commissioner of Singapore Trade is Singapore’s lifeline. We had to import and export to survive. Unlike larger countries that could rely on domestic consumption to drive growth, Singapore had to export in order to grow its GDP. We kicked off with labour-intensive export industries as a quick solution to our massive unemployment problems. We stepped up from very low to high skill industries over five decades. This never ending quest to move up the value chain continues even till today. Over the decades, four key aspects of our evolution have remained constant. i. Horizon scanning. Right from day one, the government played a proactive role in identifying high-growth industries (not just current trends, but future growth areas) so that we remained ahead of the curve. We moved up the value chain by identifying successive “sunrise sectors”. One example is our decision to invest in biomedical skills training and draw early investments in the biomedical sciences in the 1990s, long before it became fashionable. Today ten leading pharmaceutical multinational companies have regional headquarters in Singapore as testament to how horizon scanning has paid off. ii. Skills Training. Although it would have been politically convenient, we did not aim for every child to become a university graduate. The Singapore government instead stressed the importance of vocational skills training. We set up numerous Polytechnics, as well as the Institute of Technical Education, to provide post-secondary vocational training. Having a skilled workforce proved to be one of the core strengths that attracted investors and allowed us to export. iii. Good Infrastructure. Efficient sea ports, airports, broadband networks and logistics bases are fundamental to driving exports. Red-tape was cut sharply to make Singapore one of the easiest places in the world to do business. Good infrastructure is a moving target that has to be constantly updated to remain ahead. iv. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Again, long before it was fashionable Singapore embarked on a drive to broaden its trading base through bilateral and regional FTAs. Many were sceptical of our approach. Step by step, we grew our network of FTAs to include all our major trading partners. To date, we have 18 FTAs with our 24 economic partners including China, Japan, the US, ASEAN, Australia and India. Most recently, we concluded an FTA with the European Union (EU) in December 2012. On average, Singapore’s domestic exports of goods to an FTA partner increased by 18 per cent two years after entry into force of that FTA, and a further 16 per cent in the third year. A large part of our success was due to proactive government intervention, foresight and luck. The Singapore government did not shy away from making tough choices when it came to the economy. From identifying industries and developing the workforce, to creating stable investment conditions and providing attractive infrastructure for businesses, the state has played a major role in steering our exportsdriven growth story. The private sector, both local and foreign, was a close partner in this exciting enterprise. 21 Delivering the UK export ambition Export potential index A supportive business environment The following export potential index indicates the relative strengths of the UK business environment with its peers. The index is based on an matrix of the 25 countries, which appear in either or both of the top 20 exporters for goods or services.31 Labour productivity Exporters tend to have higher capital-to-labour ratios and increased labour productivity has been shown to coincide with a positive change in export values.32 Both Germany and the USA significantly outperform the UK on workforce productivity. Productivity in the UK is at $47.8 per hour worked, Germany $57.6, and the USA $61.6.33 Innovation Companies which are “innovative and imbued with a competitive ‘entrepreneurial spirit’ are more likely to be successful exporters”.34 Similarly, exporting can also boost innovation.35 The UK is particularly strong in this area, ranked third in the world behind Switzerland and Sweden. Ease of doing business This is a composite measure including factors such as the complexity and cost of regulatory processes for trading, registering property and paying taxes, along with the strength of the legal institutions for protecting investors, enforcing contracts, employing workers, etc. In the UK, there has been some concerted effort at regulatory reform, including the “one in, two out” rule for new regulation. The UK is ranked as seventh out of 155 countries on this measure, up from ninth in 2006.36 Total tax rate A major strength of the UK’s business environment is a competitive rate of headline corporation tax, which is set at 23 per cent, lower than in Germany (29.6 per cent), France (33.3 per cent) and the USA (40 per cent).37 Corporation tax is set to fall further to 20 per cent from 2015. Access to finance Access to finance measures the ease of obtaining a bank loan with only a good business plan and no collateral. It is often cited as a barrier to trade and investment. On this measure, the UK has similar access to finance as Germany, Denmark, China and India. Openness to trade Trade openness is often regarded as a significant influence of economic growth. It is also used to measure the importance of international transactions relative to domestic transactions. Hong Kong and Singapore have the highest trade openness, illustrating that international transactions dominate these economies. The UK’s trade openness is similar to Spain, Canada, France and Italy. Cost to export These include costs for documents, administrative fees for customs clearance and technical control, customs broker fees, terminal handling charges and inland transport. UK cost to export is approximately $950 per container, 14th amongst the top 25 export nations. Trade and transport related infrastructure High quality ports, road, rail and air infrastructure is crucial to supporting both domestic and international business. Amongst the top 25 global exporters, the UK ranks 14th. Germany and the Netherlands top the rankings, and the United States ranks fourth. 31 Please see the appendix for raw data and details on the compilation of the index. 32 Harris, R. and Moffat, J. (2011), R&D, Innovation and Exporting, SERC Discussion Paper 73. 33 OECD website (2012), StatExtracts, http://stats.oecd.org/: GDP per hour worked, current prices USD Accessed November 2013. 34 House of Lords Select Committee on Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (2013), Roads to Success: SME Exports. 35 Federation of Small Businesses (2013), Enabling small businesses in the drive for more UK exports. 36 World Bank and International Finance Corporation (2012), Doing Business, http://www.doingbusiness.org. Accessed November 2013. 37 CBI (2013), Raising the bar. 22 United Kingdom Labour productivity Trade and transport related infrastructure Innovation Ease of doing business Cost to export Openness to trade Total tax rate Access to finance 23 How the UK compares Low score High score USA Labour productivity Labour productivity Trade and Trade and transport related transport related Innovation Inno infrastructure infrastructure Cost to export Ease of doing busines Cost to export Labour productivity Sweden Trade and transport related infrastructure Innovation Openness Openness to trade to trade Spain Total Total tax rate Access to finance Access to finance Labour productivity Trade and transport related infrastructure Ease of doing business Cost to export Innovation Openness to trade Ease of doing business Cost to export Total tax rate Access to finance Singapore Openness to trade Total tax rate Access to finance Japan Germany France 24 Delivering the UK export ambition Case Study 2 Case study Title of case study here Who are we? Eve Taylor Eve Taylor, originally established in 1968, is a manufacturer and retailer of skin and body care products used both professionally as well as sold directly to consumers. We are a wholly familyowned business, based in Peterborough, currently employing 20 staff and with a turnover of over £2,000,000 last year. We operate all over the world, with a footprint in Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and North America. Over 60 per cent of our turnover is export-based and we are currently experiencing growth at approximately 20 per cent per annum, adding more countries as export markets in 2014 - our demand is being driven by a need for affordable quality. Entering the export market Like so many small businesses, we faced two big challenges: human resource and financing. Moving into exports, as we did for the first time in the mid-70s, was a complete departure from our existing business model. However, our founder Eve Taylor OBE firmly believed that international trade and export was key to the success of the company. Our philosophy to making it work Now that we are well established exporters and enjoying a good return, our main concern is with both international and domestic economic stability and confidence. Also, we are finding that exchange rate fluctuations are really starting to impact our local distributors’ margins. Some are struggling to absorb such fluctuations - so we are now working hard to improve our productivity in order to remain competitive and thus ensure that, along with our partners, we continue to maintain existing business and add new customers. The bottom line In 2005, we decided to expand our product range and invested significantly to improve our reach to existing and new customers/ markets. Thanks to increased exports following this investment we have been able to spread the “financial load of our recovery costs” and ensure that we remain profitable. We have now increased our exports from 40 per cent to 60 per cent overall in this period. It has helped us to create more jobs and a much more secure future with consistent profit growth. Support We have often benefited from some sort of support – such as trade show grants – and, overall, the level of support and services on offer has improved over the years. We have taken advantage of missions and intelligence data that has been available from bodies such as UKTI and our local chamber of commerce, but as a seasoned exporter we are now confident about venturing into new areas ourselves. However, there are always things government can do. We’d like to see more incentives for small UK companies to start exporting, such as tax breaks for export sales. It would also be good to see more investment in UK pavilions at international trade shows – currently the UK presence could be much better and pales in comparison with other countries. Ultimately, it’s about persuading businesses to think differently and not rely just on domestic markets for their survival or growth. Chris Taylor, Director 25 Delivering the UK export ambition 5 Gaining access to markets is key to reaching export potential 26 Delivering the UK export ambition Fashion Case study and textiles – Where next? Title of case study here UK textile companies are used to seeking out exotic export markets, following the inexorable move East of global fashion production. But what about fashion companies? Paul Alger Director of International Affairs at UK Fashion & Textile Association UK fashion companies tend to be smaller than their EU counterparts; design and innovation-led and free from the stresses of “feeding” and running a factory. They may be leaner and more flexible, but they are also more risk averse, preferring to concentrate on markets and activities where the returns come with a greater degree of certainty. Our European competitors, on the other hand, are better capitalised and driven by the need to “feed” their larger offices and factories. Faced with a downturn in sales in the established markets, especially in southern Europe, it is common to see many of them at trade shows in China, Russia and even in Kazakhstan. The support that industry receives through UKTI’s Tradeshow Access Programme is much appreciated and puts companies in front of buyers with budgets. The GREAT Campaign in emerging markets is exciting but we need time to prepare and reassure smaller UK exporters that these are real markets for them. We also need more sector-specific trade missions to markets with immediate potential including Japan, Korea and Hong Kong. Above all, everything we do has to be part of a long-term strategy from the Government and closely involving Trade Associations who know and represent their industries. Building our exports and rebalancing our economy will be a marathon, not a sprint! That does not mean that our companies are not already doing great things in China, for example, through Hong Kong-based groups including Lane Crawford, Joyce and IT or in Russia through international trade shows in Europe. The cautious UK approach also works! The problem remains, however, that smaller companies struggle to make the long-term investment needed to crack bigger emerging markets and whilst our designers are more talented than anything on the catwalk in Milan, most do not have the support of a large fashion house. Smaller designers companies are a prime target for Chinese Trademark Squatters, preventing them from selling (and manufacturing) in China, as smaller companies are less likely to invest in IP protection. Most of the BRICs markets have strong fashion sectors of their own. Japan is an important shop window for the emerging Eastern economies but is, disappointingly, not prioritised by Government in the same way as the higherrisk BRICs. 27 Delivering the UK export ambition Figure 9: UK export destinations, by continent, as % of total export (2012) Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK Trade Statistics, February 2012 Europe is currently the most important market for the UK, with 54 per cent of total exports going to the EU and 60 per cent to the whole of Europe.38 However, trade is shifting. In the period 20082011, there was a 2 per cent reduction in UK exports to the EU, whereas exports to the BRICs increased by 16 per cent, and exports to the ASEAN countries increased by 14 per cent.39 Businesses are already taking advantage of the growth potential in these rapidly expanding markets, although there is still a much greater absolute value exported to the EU. Figure 9: UK export destinations, by continent, as per cent of total exports (2012) Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK Trade Statistics, February 2012 6% Europe - non EU 14% Asia 5% Middle East 2% Africa 2% Australia 2% South America 16% North America 54% Europe - EU Businesses need access to markets The OECD found that one of the primary barriers to the internationalisation of UK SMEs is the inability to contact potential overseas customers.40 This is significant as export success is linked to the ability to adapt to the opportunities presented by changing trade patterns.41 Potential exporters are still most likely to consider exporting to countries within the EU, yet recognise that many of the greatest opportunities for growth lie beyond European borders.42 Table 5: Markets to which potential exporters would consider exporting Source: British Chambers of Commerce (2013), Exporting is good for Britain but market barriers stifle opportunities % businesses surveyed EU North America Middle East and Africa Non EU Europe (including Russia) Australasia Asia Central and South America None of these 88 49 45 44 41 40 31 2 38 ONS statistics, UK Trade statistics, February 2012. 39 International Trade Centre website (2013), “Trade Map”, http://www.trademap.org. Accessed November 2013. 40OECD (2009), “Top Barriers and Drivers to SME Internationalisation”, Report by the OECD Working Party on SMEs and Entrepreneurship, OECD. 41 WTO Secretariat (2013), Trade Policy Review – European Union. 42 British Chamber of Commerce (2013), Exporting is good for Britain but market barriers stifle opportunities. 28 Delivering the UK export ambition Would Case study leaving the EU negatively impact levels of case study here ofTitle foreign direct investment into the UK? Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a crucial factor in the internationalisation of businesses. FDI enables SMEs to become more involved in international business activities through providing access to new markets and marketing channels overseas. Furthermore, research suggests that these firms are more likely to innovate, which in turn improves the likelihood of exporting. David Ruffley MP Member of Parliament for Bury St Edmunds and Member, Treasury Select Committee The UK has the second largest stock of FDI in the world after the United States (£770 billion) and EY’s 2013 European Attractiveness Survey found that international investors considered the UK the most attractive location for investment in the EU. Not that this an intra-European story – a majority of the FDI stock in the UK (52 per cent) is the result of inward investment from non-EU countries. That this, often under-appreciated, success story could be imperilled by a decision of the UK to exit the EU is a concern raised by some businesses and commentators. This is a concern that should be taken seriously. In a survey of over 2,000 multinationals conducted by the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the most important criterion determining the location of FDI for both manufacturing and service sectors was the size of the local market. For the UK, this is currently the European Single Market. In its recent response to UK government’s “Review of the Balance of Competencies between the UK and the EU”, the Japanese government reinforced this, explicitly stating that the advantage of the UK as a gateway to the European market has attracted Japanese investment. Even if the UK were to choose to leave the EU, it is likely that the negotiated terms of the exit would involve some preferential trade deal with the remaining EU. The UK on some (disputed) estimates runs an annual trade in goods deficit with the EU of around £70bn (and a surplus with the rest of the world of £13bn). Access to the UK’s large and lucrative market is therefore worth more to EU companies than vice versa. It would simply not be economically beneficial to EU countries to increase tariffs against the UK. In the meantime the UK may be able to establish a regulatory regime even more favourable to overseas investors. Crucially, the UK would regain competence to negotiate international agreements on FDI, something it has not been able to do since the Lisbon Treaty of 2009. Recent and repeated cuts in corporation tax by the Coalition Government demonstrate that there is an instinctively competitive edge to current UK business and trade policy. The investment implications of giving this competition a freer rein outside the EU need to be weighed against what the UK would have to give up to regain its FDI independence. . While the Single Market is at present a net positive in attracting FDI to the UK it is only one of a matrix of factors, including the integrity of the UK legal system, the availability of particular skills and services and the status of the English language. Disentangling these – along with other changes, such as the removal of capital restrictions and the move to more capitalintensive technologies – is difficult to do. 29 Delivering the UK export ambition Market intelligence The 2012 Autumn Statement showed an increased focus on the market information arm of UKTI. New funding was announced for an additional 50 international trade advisers, an additional £8 million per year for the Tradeshow Access Programme, enabling 5,000 more companies to benefit from this scheme, and a 50 per cent discount on the Overseas Market Introduction Service for up to 2,500 new users. However, Germany still has many more international trade advisers, 1,700 to the UK’s 270, and spends several times that of UKTI on its own Tradeshow Access Programme.43 Moreover, this service is only available to those companies looking to start exporting, and not those trying to expand into additional markets.44 Free Trade Agreements Exporters to BRICs and other fast-growing economies tend to encounter the most barriers.45 It is therefore crucial to establish Free Trade Agreements with these countries. The figure below shows that the vast majority of Free Trade Agreements are still pending. The potential gains from a successful conclusion are enormous. For instance, an ambitious agreement with the USA could bring the EU economic gains of €119 billion a year, an FTA with Japan could increase EU GDP by 0.6 per cent, and an FTA with Canada could increase the value of bilateral trade between the EU and Canada by over a third.46 The ASEAN countries are becoming increasingly interlinked, acting as a single free trade area and developing a network of 19 Free Trade Agreements with major trading partners. As well as the ASEAN, the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement and the South Asian Free Trade Agreement both operate in the South East Asian region. 43 44 45 46 30 Federation of Small Businesses (2013), Enabling small businesses in the drive for more UK exports. CBI (2013), The only way is exports. British Chambers of Commerce (2013), International Trade Survey 2013. European Commission (2013), European Commission memo: The EU’s bilateral trade and investment agreements – Where are we? Delivering the UK export ambition Figure 10: Free Trade Agreements between the EU and the rest of the world Source: European Commission (2013), Overview of FTA and other trade negotiations EU and Customs union European Economic Area Countries with which the EU has a preferential trade agreement in place Countries with which the EU negotiates or has a preferential agreement pending official conclusion Countries with which the EU is considering opening preferential negotiations Technology Technology and e-commerce enable SMEs to overcome logistical and geographical challenges in order to access markets. UKTI state that they will target e-connectivity services at innovative and high-growth SMEs in order to better connect these businesses with trade finance, credit insurance and venture capital.47 However, despite the potential advantages of new technology for SMEs, the fixed cost of acquiring new technology may be more of a burden for SMEs than for larger companies. SMEs may also be more susceptible to security problems, and in some cases may be limited by broadband speeds or lack of skills to engage in e-commerce.48 47 UK Trade and Investment (2011), Britain Open for Business. 48 Daniel, E. and Myers, A. (2000), Levelling the playing field: e-commerce in SMEs, End of Award report to ESRC, grant no. R022250168, December. 31 Delivering the UK export ambition Many of these challenges can be easily overcome through the use of online export hubs. The informal economy in particular is thought to contribute significantly to unrecorded exports through export hubs such as Ebay. 49 In 2007, the UK exported £9.5 billion in e-commerce goods. It was strongly positive in the balance of trade for e-commerce, exporting £2.80 for every £1 imported. Since then, the trend has accelerated. The number of overseas sales by UK SMEs processed through Ebay reached £446 million in 2010, an increase of 128 per cent since 2007.50 Transport connectivity Being connected to markets across the world is crucial for both attracting inward investment to the UK and for selling more overseas. Not only do businesses need to be able to effectively transport goods around the world, but they also need to be able to travel to overseas destinations to meet new clients and discuss their business. Roads, railways, ports and airports are crucial to the UKs competitiveness; yet tough decisions on new infrastructure are too often put off with the UK spending less on capital investment in transport in recent years. Further, businesses are not confident that UK transport infrastructure will improve in the next five years.51 Strong commercial diplomacy is crucial In addition to providing a strong business environment, ensuring commercial diplomacy is another area that only Government can influence. Ministerial visits During 2012–13, the Foreign Secretary and FCO Ministers made 168 foreign visits, 47 by the Foreign Secretary himself. 52 The Westminster system of parliamentary duties makes it difficult for Ministers, and in particular the Prime Minister, to be away from Westminster for extended periods of time. This means that Britain is at a competitive disadvantage relative to countries where the heads of state are able to make extended visits to key trading nations. In a submission to the BIS Select Committee report on UKTI, the Middle East Association noted that “Arab governments frequently complain of British neglect and compare it to the attentions of competitor governments”.53 British Trade Ambassadors Launched in October 2008, this network of business and academic leaders seek to promote UK trade internationally. Although this is an important bolster to the work of Ministers, the BIS Select Committee identified a knowledge gap in the life sciences and health sector, which was identified by UKTI as a priority area in their 5-year plan.54 Trade envoys In December 2012, the Prime Minister announced the creation of eight Trade Envoys, covering between them 14 states. These countries however vary significantly from UKTI target markets; of the 18 countries identified by UKTI as “key emerging markets”, only 4 have dedicated trade envoys.55 Although Rt Hon Ken Clarke MP, the Prime Minister’s roving trade envoy, has a specific focus upon China and Brazil, this still leaves a large number of states unreached. 49 H ouse of Lords Select Committee on Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (2013), Roads to Success: SME Exports. 50 Institute of Public Policy Research (2011), Surviving the Asian Century. 51 Confederation of British Industry (2013), Connect more: CBI/KPMG infrastructure survey 2013. 52 Foreign and Commonwealth Office (2013), Foreign and Commonwealth Office Annual report and accounts 2012-13. 53 House of Commons Business, Innovation and Skills Select Committee (2010), Exporting out of recession – Third Report of Session 2009-10. 54 UK Trade and Investment (2011), Britain Open for Business. 55 UK Trade and Investment (2011), Britain Open for Business. 32 Delivering the UK export ambition Table 6: UKTI priority markets compared with trade envoy destinations Source: UKTI (2013) “High growth markets”, Press release, 26 July; BIS (2013), “New trade envoys and business investment to boost trade links”, Press release, 12 November UKTI priority markets Trade envoy destinations Indonesia Indonesia Mexico Mexico South Africa South Africa Vietnam Vietnam Brazil Algeria China Azerbaijan Colombia Cambodia Egypt Jordan India Kazakhstan Malaysia Kuwait Qatar Laos Russia Morocco Saudi Arabia Palestinian Territories Singapore Turkmenistan South Korea Taiwan Thailand Turkey UAE 33 Delivering the UK export ambition Integrating trade and aid George Freeman MP Member of Parliament for Mid Norfolk 34 The financial press are often fickle in their enthusiasm, no more so than over the case of emerging markets. Having heaped praise on them for more than a decade, a slightly chillier tone has crept in during the last year. Whether it is proclaiming a great deceleration (the title of a recent Economist cover), or panicked articles about capital outflows and currency depreciation as the Fed considers tapering its asset-purchase programme, the breathless enthusiasm for the BRICs and N11 economies has been overtaken by rekindled interest in the US and Europe. Establishing ties with these economies is why our aid and trade missions need to be strategically integrated. Trade is by far the best form of aid. Kenya, for instance, has transformed itself in recent years, building a free market and the foundations of a liberal democracy. By exporting our medical, agricultural and energy knowledge to them we can help accelerate this journey while rebalancing our own economy away from excess reliance on consumption and public spending. Aid doesn’t have to be a fiscal transfer from one state to another, but rather a long-term investment in both. It’s a useful reminder of the strengths of developed economies. Western economies boast many virtues – rule of law, world-class university research, plural societies, open markets for foreign investors, absence of corruption – that many emerging markets often lack. Yet this is precisely why these emerging economies are such fertile territory for our exports. In food, energy and biomedicine, these economies and the wider N11 are eager for the developed technologies of the West. They are due to go through in the next few decades the agricultural and industrial revolution it took us three hundred years to complete. In agriculture, for example, the world population is set to double by 2050, meaning we will need to produce twice as much food with significantly less land, water and energy. Far from giving up on emerging markets, the opportunity to use our science, technology and innovation to help feed, fuel and heal the emerging world in the three fastest growing life science markets represents an enormous revenue opportunity. As recent events in India and Kenya have shown, emerging markets can be a challenging and risky places to do business. But the death of emerging markets has been greatly exaggerated. They remain our greatest hope of achieving an export-led recovery, and unlocking a new cycle of growth to trade our way out of debt. 2 Appendix: Global export benchmarking 35 Delivering the UK export ambition This appendix sets out the methodology undertaken by Reform in compiling the export benchmarking tool. It also includes the raw data and sources for the matrix. Normalisation The data from Table 7 has been normalised. For each item, after subtracting the mean from each data point, each was divided by the standard deviation of this data set. Labour productivity Innovation Ease of doing business; 2012 Total tax rate Access to finance Openness to trade Cost to export (in USD); 2012 Trade and transport related infrastructure; 2012 Table 7: Global export benchmarking matrix data set Sources: The World Bank (2013) World Bank Database; United Nation Conference on Trade and Development (2013) UNCTADStat; The Conference Board (2013) Total Economy Database; Cornell University, INSEAD and WIPO (2013) The Global Innovation Index; World Economic Forum (2013) The Global Competitiveness Report 2013-14. Accessed September 2013 na 44.7 91 63.7% 3.1 52.8 580 3.6 United States 63.3 60.3 4 46.7% 3.8 31.5 1,090 4.1 Germany 56.9 55.8 20 46.8% 3.2 98.6 872 4.3 Japan 44.5 52.2 24 50.0% 3.1 32.5 880 4.1 France 58.9 52.8 34 65.7% 3.0 61.2 1080 4.0 United Kingdom Netherlands 50.9 60.7 61.3 61.1 7 31 35.3% 40.1% 3.1 3.7 65.0 164.0 950 895 4.0 4.2 Korea 29.9 53.3 8 29.8% 2.2 111.3 665 3.7 Italy 45.4 47.9 73 68.3% 2.0 59.2 1250 3.7 Russia na 37.2 112 54.1% 2.6 52.7 2820 2.5 Hong Kong 41 59.4 2 23.0% 4.4 435.5 575 4.1 Singapore 44 59.4 1 27.6% 4.7 387.6 456 4.2 Canada 50 57.6 17 26.9% 3.8 62.6 1610 4.0 Spain 48 49.4 44 38.7% 2.1 63.2 1220 3.7 China India na 36.2 132 61.8% 3.3 53.7 1120 2.9 Belgium 61.9 52.5 33 57.7% 3.8 169.3 1230 4.1 Switzerland 49.5 66.6 28 30.2% 3.7 118.6 1435 4.0 Mexico 17.9 36.8 48 52.5% 2.6 67.2 1450 3.0 UAE na 41.9 26 14.9% 4.5 184.4 630 3.8 Ireland 57.1 57.9 15 26.4% 1.8 192.4 1135 3.4 Sweden 54.5 61.4 13 53.0% 4.6 89.2 705 4.1 Luxembourg 75.0 56.6 56 21.0% 4.1 265.0 1420 3.8 Denmark 51.4 58.3 5 27.7% 3.1 104.6 744 4.1 na 41.2 22 14.5% 4.1 94.8 935 3.2 39.8 na na na 3.9 138.7 na na Saudi Arabia Taiwan 36 Figure 11: UK market share in largest goods markets compared to Germany and USA (2012) Source: International Trade Centre website (2013), “Trade Map”, http://www.trademap.org. Accessed November 2013 Percentage market share 20 UK USA Germany 15 10 5 0 USA China Germany Japan France Netherlands Hong Kong South Korea India Italy Figure 12: UK market share in largest service markets compared to Germany and USA (2011) Source: International Trade Centre website (2013), “Trade Map”, http://www.trademap.org. Accessed November 2013 Percentage market share UK Germany USA 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 USA Germany China Japan France India Netherlands Singapore Ireland South Korea Reform 45 Great Peter Street London SW1P 3LT T 020 7799 6699 [email protected] www.reform.co.uk ISBN number 978-1-909505-12-4
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