Harvard Business School 9-796-183 Rev. November. 25, 1996 DO The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage Introduction T NO How nations trade and whether they benefit from it are two of the oldest and most important questions in political economy. In the 170 years since David Ricardo formally developed the theory, comparative advantage has become one of the principles most widely accepted among professional economists. Despite this wide acceptance in the professional community, the basics of international trade are still poorly understood by many policy makers and casual commentators. This note introduces the theory of comparative advantage. It is divided into four sections. The first presents a short history of the concepts behind comparative advantage. The second develops a simple model with several examples to demonstrate the gains that result from trade between nations. The third briefly covers several extensions of the simple model. Finally, three traditional objections to free trade are reviewed. Another note, The Economic Gains from Trade: Strategic Theories, introduces and analyzes strategic approaches to trade. While the sections below elaborate the theory in a structured manner, the following example provides a good introduction. CO A famous and wealthy impresario of stage and screen in the 1940s, Billy Rose was also a world-class typist and stenographer with many awards to his credit. He would thus have encountered enormous difficulty in hiring a secretary who could work nearly as well as he himself could. Still, he hired secretaries because even though he was the world’s best at the job, he could still earn much more in an hour spent manipulating his stage and screen empire than he could in typing.1 PY This is the essence of comparative advantage. Compared to his secretary, Billy Rose had an absolute advantage in both typing and managing an entertainment business—that is, he was more efficient in both activities. He used a secretary because he had a comparative advantage in the entertainment business. The gains from specialization and trade are determined by comparative advantage, not absolute advantages. 1 quoted from W. B. Brown and J.S. Hogendorn, International Economics: Theory and Content, (Reading, MA: Addison Wesley, 1994), p. 28. Professors Robert E. Kennedy and Nancy F. Koehn prepared this note as the basis for class discussion. Copyright © 1996 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685 or write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of Harvard Business School. 1 796-183 The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage Comparative Advantage: A Short History DO Beginning with Adam Smith, economists have emphasized specialization and exchange as factors essential to increasing productivity and living standards. In his economic masterpiece, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Smith developed three ideas that have shaped economic justifications for free trade ever since. Specifically, Smith argued that specialization increases productivity, that exchange allows the benefits of specialization to be realized, and that the gains from specialization and exchange apply to both individuals and to nations. Smith argued that specialization must be combined with a process of exchange in order to realize potential gains: NO It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. The taylor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them from the shoemaker. . . . All of them find it for their interest to employ their whole industry in a way at which they have some advantage over their neighbors, and to purchase with a part of its produce. . . whatever else they have occasion for.2 Conceived as an attack on mercantilism, a contemporary economic theory that emphasized export promotion, import substitution, and the accumulation of national gold reserves, The Wealth of Nations extends Smith’s analysis of trade between individuals to that between nations: What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it from them with some part of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in which we have some advantage.3 T A Simple Model CO Smith's work set the stage for David Ricardo’s more formal exposition four decades later. Ricardo’s model, developed in Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, published in 1817, came to be known as the theory of comparative advantage. Since Ricardo wrote, this theory has been significantly expanded and refined, but it remains the foundation upon which modern trade theory is built. Ricardo’s analysis made several simplifying assumptions. 4 He limited the analysis to two countries and two commodities; he ignored factor (input) markets; and he accepted differences in productivity as fixed. Despite these simplifications, Ricardo’s model provides the best starting point for understanding the traditional arguments about the gains from international trade. PY Consider a world in which there are only two countries—Germany and France—and two products—beer and cheese. The resources in each country are finite, implying that each can produce only a limited amount of goods. Increasing production of one good means reducing production of the other. Each country can produce either good, but Germany is more efficient brewing beer than France and France is more efficient at making cheese than Germany. The various production possibilities (and tradeoffs) for each country can be summarized in graphical form (see Figure A). If Germany dedicated all of its energy to making beer, it could produce up to 100 (million) barrels. If it focused 2Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Cause of the Wealth of Nations, Fifth Edition, New York: Modern Library, 1937, p. 424. 3Ibid., p. 424. 4While Ricardo’s major lessons are still accepted, one of his premises has been dropped. Ricardo’s model assumed that labor was the single factor used in production. This assumption is not essential to his findings and is not included here. 2 The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage 796-183 DO solely on cheese production, it could produce up to 50 (million) pounds of cheese. Because productive resources are limited, increased production of one good translates directly into reduced manufacture of the other. Germany can produce any combination along—or to the left of—the line in the left panel of Figure A. This is referred to as Germany’s production possibility frontier. The French have a different frontier, represented by the flatter line in the right panel. They can produce up to 100 (million) pounds of cheese or 50 (million) barrels of beer. Note that the opportunity costs of production are different in the two countries. At any level of production, Germany must forgo 20 barrels of beer in order to produce 10 pounds of cheese. The price or opportunity cost of one pound of cheese is thus two barrels of beer (1/2 pound per barrel). In France, the opportunity cost of producing 10 barrels is 20 pounds—or two pounds per barrel. NO Now consider how each country fares under autarky, meaning no trade.5 Without trade, a country must consume the mix of goods it produces. This means that the lines also represent each country’s consumption possibilities frontier. Given the resource endowments of each nation, it can choose to produce and consume at any point on or inside its production possibilities line. Some combination of goods along these lines will represent its preferred consumption bundle.6 We know from the production tradeoffs that beer is cheap and cheese is expensive in Germany. In France, cheese is cheap and beer is expensive. To use Ricardo’s terms, Germany has a comparative advantage in making beer; France has a comparative advantage in producing cheese. In the absence of very strong preferences for either good, we would expect France’s consumption to be weighted toward cheese and Germany’s toward beer, the goods that are relatively cheap in each nation. Figure AxxxProduction Possibilities under Autarky T 100 Germany's Consumption France's Consumption Beer Production 80 B 60 40 60 CO Beer Production 80 100 40 20 A 20 40 60 Cheese Production 80 20 PY 20 40 60 80 100 Cheese Production Assume that under autarky France would choose to produce and consume at point A, 60 pounds of cheese and 20 barrels of beer—written as (60, 20)—and Germany would produce and consume at point B, 20 pounds of cheese and 60 barrels of beer (20, 60). 5Autarky is the policy of national self-sufficiency and nonreliance on imports, exports, or foreign economic aid. This should not be confused with autarchy, which describes autocratic or dictatorial rule. 6We will not address how these preferred consumption points are chosen. Students of economics will recall that conceptually we could construct community indifference curves for each country and search for the point of tangency with the production possibilities frontier. 3 796-183 The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage DO Introducing tradexxxNow consider what happens if we allow the countries to trade with each other. With trade, each country now faces a different tradeoff. Germany will want to trade for cheese if it can obtain the cheese for less than two barrels per pound. France will trade cheese for beer if it can obtain more than 1/2 barrel per pound. As long as the ratio of exchange is greater than 1/2 and less than two barrels of beer per pound of cheese, both countries will gain from trade. For simplicity assume both nations agree to trade and the exchange ratio is one barrel per pound. NO What happens when Germany and France specialize their production and trade beer for cheese? Each country is better off. To see why, consider each county’s consumption possibilities with trade. For the moment, assume that each country specializes entirely in the product it produces most efficiently. This means that France will produce only cheese and Germany only beer, yielding total production of 100 barrels of beer and 100 pounds of cheese. World production of each good has increased (from 80 to 100) and the consumption tradeoff faced by each country is now determined by the international price ratio (here assumed 1:1 7 ). Figure B shows that the consumption possibilities with trade are superior to those with no trade. Every point on each country’s new consumption possibilities frontier is above or to the right of its production possibilities line, meaning it can consume more goods with trade than it could produce on its own. One pair of attainable consumption bundles would be (63, 37) for France and (37, 63) for Germany. These are charted as points A’ and B’. Figure BxxxProduction Possibilities with Trade 100 80 Germany's Consumption Co Beer Production ns um B pt io Po ss ib du 40 n ilit pt io n Po ss ib ilit ie Pro s A' duc s nP tion Pos ibil 20 ilitie s A s itie 40 CO sib oss 20 um 60 40 ie ctio 20 ns T Co Pro Beer Production France 's Consumption 80 B' 60 100 60 Cheese Production 80 20 40 60 80 100 Cheese Production PY The key insight is that each country is unambiguously better off in terms of the goods it can consume. In Figure B, France has moved from point A to A’ and Germany has moved from B to B’; neither point was attainable without trade.8 It is important to note that the gains from trade come from exploiting each nation’s comparative advantage. The gains from trade do not depend on one’s trading partner being “fair.” Even if Germany imposed tariffs on French cheese, France would benefit from trade, so long as the 7 The international price could be anywhere between 0.5 and 2 barrels per pound. We assume 1:1 here for simplicity. The actual price is determined by a variety of factors, including industry structure, relative market size, and bargaining power. 8 This example has been constructed so that consumption of both goods rises, although it is possible that consumption of one may fall as the relative prices of the goods change. 4 The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage 796-183 tariffs were smaller than the difference in relative prices.9 Tariffs reduce the gains from trade, but as long as trade is voluntary, they would not leave France worse off than autarky. A Model with Absolute Advantage in Both Goods DO The theory tells us that there will be gains from trade even if one country is absolutely more productive in all products. The example illustrated in Figures A and B showed two countries of approximately equal size (roughly 60 million people) and average productivity (150 million units of total output, or 2.5 units per person). Consider what would happen if France’s productivity in both products suddenly increased by a factor of three. France would have an absolute advantage in producing both cheese and beer. It could manufacture either 150 barrels of beer (2.5 barrels per person) or 300 pounds of cheese (five pounds per person). Note that the tradeoff between cheese and beer production is still 2 to 1. Given that France has an absolute productivity advantage in both products over Germany, does it still make sense to trade with Germany? Figure CxxxProduction Possibilities When One Nation Has an Absolute Advantage in Both Goods NO Beer Production 180 120 A' France's Consumption A 60 B B' T Germany's Consumption 60 120 180 240 300 Cheese Production CO Unequivocally YES!!!—because the opportunity costs of producing beer and cheese in the two countries still differ. Germany still has a comparative advantage (a lower opportunity cost) in producing beer.10 France can still raise its total consumption by shifting production from beer to cheese and trading for beer, just as in the earlier example. Adding to the Model PY Ricardo’s original model was a simple one, but it contains the key insights still endorsed today by an overwhelming majority of economists.11 Trade in the real world is much more complex, 9A tariff can be thought of as equivalent to confiscating some percentage of the cheese and throwing it into the sea. The government raises some revenue with the tariff, but the loss to consumers is greater than the gain to the government. As long as the tariff does not exceed the difference in the opportunity costs of production, trade will still occur and both parties will benefit. While a tariff is a price restriction, a quota is a quantity restriction. Trade with either type of restriction leaves a country better off than no trade, but not as well off as with free trade. Removing such restrictions would make both countries richer. 10Germany’s opportunity cost of a barrel of beer is 1/2 pound of cheese; France’s opportunity cost of beer is 2 pounds per barrel or four times that of Germany. 11A 1992 survey in the American Economic Review revealed that 93.5 percent of the economists surveyed agreed with the statement that “tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare.” This was the issue 5 796-183 The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage but bringing this complexity into the model does not change the conclusions regarding the benefits of trade. Three additions to Ricardo’s model are worth noting. DO The first addition is to add more products and/or additional countries. Ricardo’s model easily expands to include more tradeable goods.12 When we add tradeable goods or additional countries, each nation should specialize in producing those goods for which it is a comparatively low-cost producer and import those goods for which it has comparatively high costs—after all relevant costs, such as transportation costs, have been considered. NO A second addition is to bring factor markets into the analysis. To this point, we have taken differences in productivity across countries as given. We have not examined why nations should specialize in particular products. The factor proportions model, developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin, highlights the role that factor endowments—such as land, labor, and capital—have on the pattern of trade. The factor proportions model suggests that a country will export products that use its abundant factors intensively and will import products that use its scarce factors intensively. For example, Germany has accumulated large amounts of capital while Vietnam has abundant labor but little capital. We would expect Germany to export capital-intensive products to countries like Vietnam while Vietnam exports labor-intensive products to countries like Germany. T A third addition is to define factor inputs even more broadly. Recent work expands the definition of factor inputs beyond land, labor, and capital to include intangible factors such as industry-specific skills and competencies. An early effort along these lines was the product life cycle theory of trade.13 More recently, Paul Krugman, Bruce Scott, Michael Porter, and others have investigated how nations create and sustain other factor advantages.14 Because it highlights how factors can be developed, this research has led to a more dynamic view of comparative advantage—one which allows that government policies can affect the accumulation of valuable factor inputs. These policies are discussed in a companion note The Economic Gains from Trade: Strategic Theories. Traditional Objections to Free Trade CO While free trade leads to aggregate economic gains, three objections are traditionally used to oppose free trade. The first concerns the distribution of gains and losses; the second, infant industries; and the third, national security. Although nations benefit from free trade in the aggregate, these gains are often unevenly distributed. For example, China may possess a comparative advantage in producing laborintensive textiles while the United States has an advantage in agricultural products. Trade would make both countries better off in the aggregate, but American textile workers and Chinese farmers PY on which there was greatest agreement. [“Is There a Consensus Among Economists in the 1990s?” American Economic Review V, 82 (May, 1992)]. 12Some products may be theoretically tradable but have characteristics, such as low value-to-weight ratios, that make trade infeasible. 13 The theory suggests that the pattern of trade in advanced products follows a regular pattern. Innovation, early production and early consumption occur in high income countries, followed by exports, some overseas production, and finally a shift toward production in low income countries (and imports back into the innovating country). See Wells’ (ed.) The Product Life Cycle and International Trade (Cambridge: Harvard Business School, 1972). 14Porter’s The Competitive Advantage of Nations (New York: The Free Press, 1990) examines highly competitive industries in 10 countries, many of which are located in geographic clusters. Industries examined include American movie production and computer software, German chemicals and textiles, Swiss pharmaceuticals, and Italian home appliances. Many of the industries benefit from factors, such as supporting industries or workers with industry-specific skills, which appear to be created, rather than endowed by nature. Porter suggests that factor advantages can be created, that they are often industry specific, and that they are best nurtured by vigorous competitive forces. 6 The Economic Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage 796-183 DO would bear losses as specialization and trade increased. Such distributional consequences have important political implications. The gains from trade are often widely dispersed while the losses are concentrated and borne by highly visible groups. The few who bear the adjustment costs involved in free trade have much greater incentive to organize politically than do the many who each receive a small individual benefit. This argument is particularly strong when made on behalf of industries such as textiles that make intensive use of relatively low-skilled labor. While in theory the beneficiaries of trade could compensate the losers, making everyone better off, this rarely occurs. A related point is that the theory implicitly assumes that at least one of two conditions exists: that resources (workers, capital) are easily transferred across industries; or that resource prices are allowed to adjust to changes in demand. If resources are not mobile and prices are sticky, trade could cause resources to become idle and total output could decline. NO The second objection is referred to as the infant industry argument. In its traditional form, the argument asserts that a new industry which has a potential comparative advantage may not get started unless it is given temporary protection against foreign competition. This protection imposes social costs but presumably leads to long term gains. To justify such a social investment, however, at least three (somewhat stringent) conditions must hold: that private entrepreneurs would not be willing to make this investment on their own (absorbing short-term losses to realize long-term gains); that the government is better at identifying such opportunities than private firms; and that the protection will truly be temporary. Summary T The third traditional objection is that some industries must be protected for national security reasons. For example, even if Iraq could produce tanks and process uranium ore more efficiently than the United States, the U.S. would be unlikely to relinquish these activities for those in which it has a comparative advantage. CO It is important to remember at least two issues when discussing trade and comparative advantage. First, the gains from trade depend on relative, not absolute, productivity levels. Even a country that is absolutely less productive in every product benefits from trade. It will always be relatively less bad at producing some product and can therefore raise its consumption possibilities by specializing in this activity. PY Second, global economic growth has historically been associated with free trade, especially since World War II. Trade barriers have been progressively lowered and international institutions such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have promoted trade and investment. Growth in the volume of international trade has far outpaced national economic expansion. Real GDP growth in six industrial democracies averaged 3.3 percent per year from 1950 through 1987 while the volume of foreign trade grew by 7.4 percent annually.15 On the other hand, individual countries have sometimes developed rapidly while protecting their domestic markets. For example, early industrialization in both Britain and the United States occurred behind high tariffs, and post-World War II Japan and Korea restricted access to their local markets. Leading nations have historically been the greatest proponents of free trade, while countries attempting to catch up view home-market protection as one tool they can use to gain on the leaders. 15Angus Maddison, Dynamic Forces of Capitalist Development: A Long Run Comparative View (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 6-7, 148. 7
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