BLACK SEA MODEL SYSTEM
Barış Salihoğlu,
Heather Cannaby, Sinan Arkın, Bettina A. Fach, Temel
Oğuz, Ekin Akoğlu
Institute of Marine Sciences,
Middle East Technical University, Turkey
Black Sea Modeling system
Small pelagics
Mnemiopsis
Aurelia
Small
Zooplankton
Diatoms
Small
Phytoplankton
Biochemistry
Eularian
Large
Zooplankton
Coccolithophores
Beroe
IBM
Noctulica
Dinoflaggelates
oxygen, pCO2 (DON, bacteria, redox reactions
near the suboxic-anoxic interface, P cycle)
Circulation Model
Technical details of physical model
0
-50
46
-100
Princeton Ocean Model (pom2k)
-200
-400
-600
44
-800
• Horizontal grid ~ 5km regular array
• Vertical grid: 26 sigma levels, compressed towards
upper 200 m
-1000
-1200
42
-1400
-1600
-1800
-2000
28
• Initialisation: Spun up from climatology using
atmospheric climatological forcing
• Boundaries
• No open boundaries
- Climatic river input (9 in total)
- Straits discharges (Bosporus/Kerch)
30
32
34
36
38
40
-2200
Black Sea model domain
47
Dnieper
Dniestr
46
Strait of Kerch
Danube
45
44
• Assimıiation of CTD data:
- Optimal Interpolation of temperature and
salinity deviations from climatic mean onto model grid
at monthly time scales (performed prevıously (19711992)
Kodori
43
Inguri
Rioni
42
Kizil-Irmak
Strait of Bosporus
41
Eshil-Irmak
Sakarja
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Rivers and straits included in
model
41
Anchovy IBM
Processes
•
•
•
•
Feeding: functional response
Growth: bioenergetics
Mortality: predation, starvation
Horizontal movement:
- Directed (annual migration patterns)
- Random movement
- Advection by currents
Migration model (?)
Advection by currents
+ Random movement
+ Directed movements
Directed movement:
• Overwintering migration (north to south):
• T < 15C on north-western shelf
• T < 10C off Kerch Strait
• Return migration (south to north)
• T > 13-14C
 Combination of modeling movement and hard wired
movement
The E2E Black Sea model
EwEinFORTRAN HTL module
BIMS-ECO
LTL module
Technical details of physical model
0
-50
46
-100
Princeton Ocean Model (pom2k)
-200
-400
-600
44
-800
• Horizontal grid ~ 5km regular array
• Vertical grid: 26 sigma levels, compressed towards
upper 200 m
-1000
-1200
42
-1400
-1600
-1800
-2000
28
• Initialisation: Spun up from climatology using
atmospheric climatological forcing
• Boundaries
• No open boundaries
- Climatic river input (9 in total)
- Straits discharges (Bosporus/Kerch)
30
32
34
36
38
40
-2200
Black Sea model domain
47
Dnieper
Dniestr
46
Strait of Kerch
Danube
45
44
• Assimıiation of CTD data:
- Optimal Interpolation of temperature and
salinity deviations from climatic mean onto model grid
at monthly time scales (performed prevıously (19711992)
Kodori
43
Inguri
Rioni
42
Kizil-Irmak
Strait of Bosporus
41
Eshil-Irmak
Sakarja
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Rivers and straits included in
model
41
Technical details of ecosystem model
Basic model compartments as described in (Oguz et al, 2001)
• Pelagic food web model
• Nutrient cycling
• Vertical grid extends to 200 m (26 z-levels with 2 m resolution near the surface and 20 m near the
lower boundary).
• Horizontal grid as in Circulation model.
Tropic level-0
N - nitrate
A – ammonium
DON- Dissolved inorganic nitrogen
D - Labile pelagic detritus
Tropic level-1
Ps - small (<10 μm) phytoplankton
Pl – large (> 10 μm) phytoplankton
Tropic level-2
Zs – microzooplankton
Zl – mesozooplankton
Zn - opportunistic heterotrophic dinoflagellate
Noctiluca scintillans
Za - gelatinous carnivore Aurelia aurita
Zm- gelatinous carnivore Mnemiopsis leidyi
Extended ecosystem model formulation
A more sophisticated version of the model (Oguz et al., 2000, 2001a) includes:
• DON,
• bacteria,
• oxygen as well as oxidation-reduction reactions near the suboxic-anoxic interface
An extension of the previous model formulation (Oguz and Merico, 2006) includes four
phytoplankton groups:
diatoms,
dinoflagellates,
small phytoplankton
coccolithophores)
and the additional phosphorus cycle .
Extended ecosystem model formulation
Schematic diagram of biochemical processes included in the model
Model validation
Within MEECE a comprehensive model validation has been
performed assessing:
• Model accuracy
• General circulation structure
• Vertical water column structure
• Seasonal and ınterannual variability
Data used for model validation:
• Gridded and discrete CTD data
• Satellite SST data
• SeaWifs Chlorophyll-a data
Comparison of modelled SSTs to CTD and satellite data
Example of model output (physics)
0.3 m s-1
Well resolved circulation structure
(LEFT: Winter-mean circulation (1999)
in the upper 30 m
Well resolved CIL
(RIGHT)
Temperature 43 N
Temperature (1996-2000)
ple of model output (Nitrate concentration)
Jul 96
1
Jul 00
(mmol N m-3)
6.5
Nitrate concentration in the upper 200 m layer of the Black Sea (1996-2000)
Example of model output (phytoplankton)
1999
2000
0.1 μg m-2
0.1 μg m-2
6 μg m-2
6 μg m-2
Summer mean (Apr-Sep) phytoplankton distribution in the upper 30 m
2000
1999
0.1 μg m-3
1 μg m-3
0.1 μg m-3
Summer mean (Apr-Sep) phytoplankton distribution at 42.5N
1 μg m-3
References
Oguz, T., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P. Ducklow, H. W. (2001) Simulations of phytoplankton
seasonal cycle with multi-level and multi-layer physical-ecosystem models: The Black Sea
example ". Ecological Modelling, 144, 295-314.
Oguz, T., Fach, B.A., Salihoglu B. (2008). Invasion dynamics of alien ctenophore
Mnemiopsis leidyi into the Black Sea and its impact on the anchovy collapse. Journal of
Plankton Research, 30 No. 12, doi:10.1093/plankt/fbn094.
Oguz, T., Salihoglu B, Fach, B.A. (2008). A coupled plankton-anchovy population dynamics
model assessing nonlinear controls of anchovy stock and anchovy-gelatinous regime shift
in the Black Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 369: 229-256, doi:10335/meps07540.