The warehouse of the future
In association with
the uk logistics fund and gazeley
Contacts
BNP Paribas Real Estate UK
Paul Rixon
Head of Logistics
Tel: 0121 237 1280
[email protected]
Ranjit Gill
Head of Logistics Agency
Tel: 0121 237 1235
[email protected]
Ed Cornwell
Senior Director – Investment
Tel: 020 7484 8126
[email protected]
Lisa Fitch
Associate Director –
Supply Chain Consultancy
Tel: 0121 237 1252
[email protected]
Kevin Mofid
Associate Director – Research
Tel: 020 7484 8186
[email protected]
Charles Robinson
Senior Director – Planning
Tel: 0121 237 1216
[email protected]
Andrew Langley
Senior Director – Building Consultancy
Tel: 0121 237 1287
[email protected]
Jonathan Holland
Director The UK Logistics Fund
One Coleman Street London EC2R 5AA
Tel: 020 3124 2724
[email protected]
Nigel Godfrey
Senior Vice President
Gazeley
16 Palace Street, Cardinal Place
London SW1E 5JQ
Tel: 020 7901 4470
[email protected]
BNP Paribas Real Estate UK
5 Aldermanbury Square
London
EC2V 7BP
UK Logistics Fund
One Coleman Street
London
EC2R 5AA
Gazeley
16 Palace Street
Cardinal Place
London
SW1E 5JQ
The Warehouse of the Future
Introduction
In 1993 Fuller Peiser, which would later become BNP Paribas Real
Estate, published a piece of research examining what occupiers
needed from their logistics and distribution property.
The 1993 survey
The dramatic results pre-empted the explosion in large scale
distribution parks which are now commonplace today.
The results of the 1990s survey stated the maximum eaves height
required was 8.5m and that rail connectivity was the least important
factor when considering new warehouse accommodation.
With the speculative development market non existent during
2010, this seemed the ideal time to revisit what occupiers’ needs
and requirements are as the market recovers and speculative
development returns in 2011 and 2012.
The research examines the results of a survey conducted by BNP
Paribas Real Estate throughout 2010 covering a cross section of
operational logistics and real estate professionals.
We are grateful to our partners The UK Logistics Fund and Gazeley,
who comment on the results from an investor’s and developer’s
perspective respectively.
Methodology
BNP Paribas Real Estate utilised a number of research methods to
complete this survey.
The key aim of this research has been to track the opinions of the
end users of logistics property in the UK.
In order to achieve this, BNP Paribas Real Estate was a key sponsor
of the Retail Week Supply Chain Summit in 2010. This allowed us
unprecedented access to an audience of key logistics professionals
from major retailers, manufacturers along with logistics companies
and 3PLs. Many delegates took the opportunity to complete a survey,
the results of which make up this report.
BNP Paribas Real Estate also utilised key client contacts across
the logistics and property industry to add further responses to the
survey.
In total around 80 responses were received providing quality
information on the trends currently on the agenda in the supply
chain that will effect the warehouses to be built in the future.
Figure 1: Business sector of respondents
Food 14%
Other 28%
Sample
Fashion 13%
The research has attracted responses from key stakeholders in the
logistics property market across all sectors.
Figure 1 demonstrates that the respondents to the survey are from
a wide background of key occupiers within the logistics property
market, including nearly half from the retail sector alone. The
remainder of respondents are made up of transport companies and
3PLs along with other interested parties such as consultants and
representatives of industry bodies.
Homewares 6%
Electronics 6%
Transport/3PL 23%
Multigoods 10%
I3I
Survey Results
Figure 2: Sustainable initiatives are important
to our future warehouse requirements (%)
Sustainability
Much has been made in both the logistics and property press on
the perceived importance of sustainability to occupiers and how this
will affect future warehouse design. Moreover, questions have also
been raised in relation to how important sustainability remains in
the midst of a severe economic downturn.
Given that most survey respondents are from large corporations,
with CSR policies, it is perhaps unsurprising that 86% of respondents
either agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that “sustainable
initiatives are important to our future warehouse requirements”.
More interesting, however, is the fact that 69% of respondents stated
that they would be prepared to pay a rental premium for sustainable
initiatives that saved on operational cost. It could be argued that this
sentiment has yet to translate into deals and the rents achievable
for current warehousing stock.
A key factor effecting occupiers at the moment is the raising
cost of energy and the upcoming impact of the Carbon Reduction
Commitment (CRC). With this in mind 76% of respondents stated
that they would look favourably on warehousing that was powered
by some form of sustainable energy such as wind, solar, biomass or
energy from waste.
60
60
50
50
4040
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Strongly
agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
Figure 3: We would pay a rental premium for
green initiatives if they saved operational cost (%)
60
60
50
50
4040
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Strongly
agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
Figure 4: We would look more favourably on a
warehouse powered from sustainable energy (%)
60
60
50
50
4040
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Strongly
agree
The Warehouse of the Future
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
Warehouse Design
Aside from sustainable initiatives that affect the operational
efficiencies of future buildings, it is also important to consider the
physical attributes that will affect height, site coverage and building
shape in the future.
Figure 5: What eaves height will be required
for our future operations?
7-10m 6%
10-12m 11%
A resounding 83% of respondents stated that future eaves height
should be at least 12m with 43% suggesting that high bay facilities
will be required for future operations, as detailed in figure 5.
High Bay 43%
This is however in juxtaposition with the fact that a huge majority
of respondents, 83%, agreed or strongly agreed that cross-docked
facilities were important to future operational requirements.
12-15m
26%
This has the potential to have a radical impact on future warehouse
design as cross-docked units generally are rectangular in shape,
must have yard access on opposite elevations and require many
more dock level access doors. The emphasis for operators in this
case is to hold stock for a shorter amount of time and therefore
reduce the amount of inventory within the warehouse.
Lastly, a key issue within the supply chain at the moment is the
potential for collaboration. There are many examples of retailers
working in partnership with their suppliers to share vehicles and
therefore reduce the rate of vehicles running empty. A key part of the
Warehouse of the Future survey is to see if this collaboration has the
potential to extend to the property sector.
Almost 80% of respondents either agreed or strongly agreed with the
statement “We would consider sharing space if it saved us money”.
Once again, should this sentiment be replicated in future warehouse
requirements the potential for design change is vast.
Flexible, shared user facilities could require elongated units with
the potential for sub division, split yards and pose issues relating to
vehicle access. These would just be the design implications,
consideration would also have to be given to issues such as valuation
and lease structures.
15m+
14%
Figure 6: Cross-docked facilities are important
to our future plans (%)
60
60
50
50
4040
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Strongly
agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
Figure 7: We would consider sharing space
if it saved us money (%)
60
60
50
50
4040
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Strongly
agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
I5I
Warehouse location
From an investor and developer perspective it is increasingly
important to understand the flow of goods into the UK along
with the future multi-modal transport operations that will become
more prevalent.
With the potential advent of road charging in the UK, operators are
starting to examine alternative methods for the carriage of goods for
future distribution.
Of those questioned 61% stated that rail operations were set
to become more important in the future. Furthermore, 83% of
respondents stated port-centric operations were set to increase in
importance over the years to come. The only negative sentiment
was displayed towards the increased use of air freight with 37%
of respondents either disagreeing or strongly disagreeing that air
freight would increase in the future.
In terms of the future flow of goods into the UK the results of the
survey are particularly interesting, with a majority of respondents
stating that the East Coast ports will increase in importance in the
coming years.
When asked about the future importance of the East Coast ports
of South East England 70%, of respondents saw this increasing in
importance, combined with 53% of respondents responding in the
positive regarding the ports of North East England.
Whilst the majority of respondents were not overwhelmingly positive
towards the North West the results are also not particularly negative
with 46% of respondents feeling “neutral”. This should ensure that
the North West retains its place as one of the core logistics regions
of the UK. Once again, air freight was on balance deemed likely to
reduce in importance.
Figure 8: The importance of multi-modal
transport (%)
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly agree
Agree
Strongly disagree
60
60
50
50
40
40
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Rail
Air
Port-centric
Figure 9: Which entry points to the UK
will become more important? (%)
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
60
60
50
50
40
40
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
East Coast Ports East Coast Ports Channel Tunnel
(North East:
(South East:
Teesport, etc) Thames Gateway,
Felixstowe, etc)
The Warehouse of the Future
Liverpool/
North West
Increased
Air Freight
Property Issues
During the economic downturn, and coupled with the over supply
of both new and second hand warehousing, occupiers have been
particularly savvy in the deals they have been able to achieve.
Evidence from transactions also points to the fact that leases have
been getting progressively shorter.
The aim of the following questions is to establish the incentives that
occupiers are more favourable to and also how much warehousing
space is viewed as strategic as opposed to requirements for short
term flexible space.
As figure 10 demonstrates, the incentive which received the most
favourable response was rent free periods with 83% of respondents
either agreeing or strongly agreeing.
Capital contributions and a basic level of fit out also received positive
sentiment, which could be put down to occupiers being averse to
capital expenditure in the current economic climate.
In terms of future warehouse leases, it seems the trend of shorter
leases will continue as a significant majority of respondents pointed
to an increased requirement for short term flexible space as figure
11 demonstrates.
Figure 10: Which of the following landlord
incentives do you prefer? (%)
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
60
60
50
50
40
40
3030
2020
10
10
0 0
Rent free periods
Heating/lighting/sprinklers
Capital contributions
Figure 11: Is your organisation looking for long term
strategic sites or short term flexible space?
(weighted average response)
2.65
2.65
2.60
2.60
2.55
2.55
2.50
2.50
2.45
2.45
Long leasehold
Short term
A combination
I7I
The Agent’s Perspective
By Ranjit Gill, Head of Logistics Agency, BNP
Paribas Real Estate
Upon initial examination the results of our Warehouse of the Future
research are not a surprise especially the positive sentiment towards
sustainability.
In recent times, occupier requirements have increasingly stated that
sustainable features are important but this has not resulted in any
premium being paid for the benefit of such features. There are two
reasons for this, the first is that leading developers such as Gazeley
and ProLogis were already building product to BREEAM ‘Very good’
or ‘Excellent’ ratings and incorporating features such as rain water
harvesting, extra roof lights etc. The second factor has more do to
with the economic environment where the priority was to survive
and maintain cash flow by driving a harder financial deal rather
than focusing on the benefits of sustainable initiatives. As sentiment
is moving away from survival towards growth, it is encouraging to
see sustainability back in focus.
As the cost of fuel continues to rise we are seeing more interest in
rail particularly where occupiers are looking to move large amounts
of freight. Recent significant deals to M&S and Tesco in the Midlands
reinforce this point. The waste sector is also keen to maximise rail
usage and we see this sector continuing to grow.
We were somewhat surprised by the need for higher buildings
particularly moving above 15m. From my experience only a small
percentage of the market is able to justify such height and those
committing to higher units have tended to have very bespoke long
term requirements. The cost of MHE, sprinkler systems, loss of heat
etc usually cancels out the benefits of operational efficiencies for
the majority of users. If, as the research has shown so far, there is a
genuine desire to take 15m plus buildings then maybe it is time to
for another industry discussion on cubic rents on larger distribution
buildings? In practice the extra cost has simply been factored into
the overall package or an appropriate gearing. Obtaining planning
consent for such buildings has been an issue for a while and will not
be helped by the Localism Bill.
Collaboration is also moving up the agenda as occupiers seek to
reduce their carbon footprint and to maximise efficiencies in the
supply chain. In design terms, longer narrower cross-docked
buildings are potentially easier to divide and this is another reason
why they are favoured by many of those who contributed to the
research. Cross-docked facilities are easier to justify in difficult
market conditions when land is cheaper but can become an issue in
a buoyant market as land values increase and developers/investors
seek to maximise densities.
For the type of unit the research identifies as being important in the
future we can certainly see rental premiums attached due to the
current lack of supply of buildings that match the criteria.
Again this additional value should translate to portcentric operations
where land supply is at a premium. However it should be noted
that port centric is not just port side and hinterland locations with
good multimodal port access should have the ability to benefit from
this trend.
The requirements and market take up we have recorded over the last
three years are certainly an indicator of how the logistics industry
is reacting to changes in the supply chain. With almost a third of all
take up in 2010 in the Midlands we are seeing that entry points to
the UK, multimodal connectivity and future fuel cost increases are
having increased importance.
The core logistics regions of the UK will maintain their importance
but peripheral regions will find it hard to compete on property
issues alone.
We have noted the increased importance of cross-docked facilities
over the past few years. I have worked with a number of occupier
clients who view such buildings as key strategic assets and are
generally reluctant to let them go due to the lack of market supply
and the high costs of acquiring replacement buildings. The high
land take up can typically add 40-50% to the rent. Despite the
increased rents, we see demand continuing for this type of property
as occupiers seek to reduce holding periods and customers continue
to expect quicker delivery times.
The Warehouse of the Future
The Developer’s Perspective
By Jonathan Fenton Jones, Global Procurement
and Sustainability Director, Gazeley
As a developer of cost-effective and sustainable buildings our success
hinges on supporting our customers by delivering quality buildings
on sites which are strategically well located for logisticians.
Customers who we have worked with include Tesco, Wal*Mart and
Procter & Gamble. In line with the expectations of our customers, we
are constantly looking ahead and are not afraid to think big in order
to pioneer and innovate. We have an ethos of continuous innovation in customer service
and product delivery. A decade ago we commissioned a research
programme, called Eco-Template, to study the construction and
redesign of warehouses from an environmental perspective. We
realised back then, just as we do now that we needed to work in
partnership with our customers to deliver superior environmental
performance through buildings that were both cheaper to
operate and maintain and, crucially, had a positive impact on the
environment.
We decided we could make a greater contribution by openly sharing
our findings with our customers and competitors alike. We deliver
commercially competitive distribution buildings that exceed all
relevant legal and regulatory requirements, whilst demonstrating
high levels of environmental responsibility.
The Warehouse of the Future report, commissioned by BNP Paribas
forms part of our ongoing commitment, and it is enormously
encouraging that two thirds of respondents appears to be willing
to pay additional rent for technologies what will reduce operating
costs by a greater amount.
It was important that the report also highlighted some key findings
from an occupiers’ point of view. Issues such as multimodal links,
rail-connected buildings and sites all ranked highly on their list
of concerns, as did warehouse features, such as the height of
buildings. These views underpin the decisions we make at Gazeley
when acquiring and developing sites. In addition it is clear that our
investors aspire to buy quality buildings to future-proof long term
investment value.
A pragmatic view of sustainability driven by business common
sense, not idealism, is one we share with our customers and key
partners such as B&Q, Tesco and Stanley Black & Decker. Our Eco –
Template set out a road map to incremental improvement on a
route and pace aligned with commercial realism. Being a profitable
business, protecting the environment and making a difference in
the communities in which we operate are more than compatible,
they are intrinsically linked. The goals we have set ourselves – all
developments to be carbon positive; to send zero construction waste
to landfill; to use materials that do not degrade human or ecosystem
health; to reuse all development storm water, and to achieve a net
gain in biodiversity - are challenging, but behaving responsibly is an
imperative if we are to optimise use of the finite resources available
to us.
In short, sustainability makes good business sense.
I9I
The Investor’s Perspective
By Jonathan Holland, Director,
The UK Logistics Fund
Warehousing is affected by global trends and changes in the market
far more swiftly than some other property market sectors. This
research is valuable because it gives us a clear heads up on what
occupiers are looking for and so, in turn, as landlords what kinds of
asset we should be holding or developing.
It was interesting to note, that though warehousing and logistics are
often associated with poor environmental credentials, the survey
suggests that warehouse occupiers might be amongst the first
movers or early adopters of green technology. This throws up several
interesting issues for a property investor – firstly will occupiers be
willing to pay more for a higher specification warehouse? With price
sensitive operators an investor/developer would have to be careful
that their asset hit all the requirements of the occupier in terms of
energy cost savings. Where the operators are used to paying less
in terms of rent, this might be more difficult to achieve. The other
major factor is obsolescence and depreciation. A lot of these green
technologies are relatively new to the market, so questions around
maintenance and how fast they might be replaced have yet to be
comprehensively answered.
The interest of occupiers in cross-docked facilities suggests for
us increasing speed to delivery, with possibly more value-add
activities. It could also suggest that different operators might be
used to service different stages of transportation. As investors, we
need to be sure we own assets precisely where occupiers will need
the space – and with the projected increase in e commerce, edge
of town e fulfilment centres, with cross-docking facilities look like
a very interesting option. Cross-docking is also an interesting trend
for consolidation centres, providing the opportunity for logistics
operators to combine loads from different clients – something they
are coming under more and more pressure to do, to keep costs down.
It is no surprise that port centric facilities are expected to become
more important, with an increasing volume of goods imported into
the UK. Of course the ascendancy of port operations has been in the
press a while and we’re watching with interest the development
of the east coast ports in particularly. Port linked for us however,
doesn’t necessarily mean ‘port side’; we’re really interested in the
potential for inland hubs, rail linked of course wherever possible.
We were very interested in the results of the question about eave
heights. The trend to require higher eaves is likely to run contrary
to planning preferences, particularly after the localism bill has been
fully introduced. Planning restrictions regarding either design of
warehousing or location for higher bay warehouses will certainly
push up the price of development and this will translate into rental
increases. It might have greater impact in the South of the UK,
where warehousing development is often difficult due to the lack of
suitable land.
We see a number of important trends reflected in the Warehouse of
the Future work and we’re happy to be on the front foot with regard
to the latest industry knowledge and research.
The Warehouse of the Future
Conclusions
The main aim of this report has been to develop a narrative on what
the key issues in the operational supply chain are and to encourage
debate as to how the property industry should react.
The key trends highlighted are that:
• Sustainability is a key driver that will affect requirements for
future warehouse units
• The industry is examining ideas that will save operational cost
such as:
•Sharing space
•Co-location with energy producers
• Transportation by road is not the only consideration for goods
movement. Both rail connected and port centric operations have
a place in the modern supply chain
• The East Coast ports will have an increasing role to play as key
entry points into the UK
• Building height is set to increase further, but this is contrasted by
the positive sentiment towards cross-docked facilities
• Increased operational flexibility is seen as important as occupiers
look for more short term flexible space.
With the next development cycle, the property industry must
embrace what the user of the warehouse of the future requires.
For some occupiers this is a unit which is: rail connected, multiuser, within striking distance of the East Coast Ports, in proximity to
sustainable energy and high bay or cross-docked.
For other users, however, traditional distribution models will remain
in place but it will be the trailblazers of today that influence the
supply chain of the future, which in turn will change what we
currently understand to be prime logistics property.
We are grateful to our partners in this research The UK Logistics
Fund and Gazeley who are at the forefront of future UK warehouse
development as their insightful commentary demonstrates.
I11I
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