Knowing Our Borough 2015/16 Tarnveer Singh Community Engagement and Accountability Team Knowing our Borough 2015/16 Our local population 1 Introduction The London Borough of Richmond upon Thames is a prosperous, safe and healthy borough. It covers an area of 5,095 hectares (14,591 acres) in southwest London and is the only London borough spanning both sides of the Thames, with river frontage of 21½ miles. The main town centre is Richmond and there are four district centres at Twickenham, Teddington, East Sheen and Whitton. The borough is divided into 18 electoral wards shown below, each ward is served by three Borough Councillors. More details on serving Councillors are available here. This report presents a view of the population of the borough by equality characteristic using the most recently available data from a range of sources. Richmond has a growing diversity which includes people who live, work in the borough or visit the borough and use services. Equality and diversity is about the whole community: Young people; older people; women and men; people from different racial and ethnic backgrounds or faith/belief groups; disabled people; lesbians, bi-sexuals and gay men; transgender people. 2 The situation in Richmond 2.1 Resident population The population of Richmond is 193,585 according to the 2014 Office for National Statistics Mid-Year Estimates. Table 1 – Population Total Males Females Population Richmond upon Thames 193,585 94,052 99,533 London 8,538,689 4,234,019 4,304,670 England 54,316,618 26,773,196 27,543,422 Total population, ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2014 Area name www.datarich.info Approximately 51% of the population are female and 49% are male. 24% of the population are children and young people, 65% are working age and 14% are older people aged 65+. The latest ONS Subnational Population Projections project that the population of Richmond will rise by 25% by 2037 to 239,400 residents. More information about specific population groups by age, gender etc. is available in further chapters of Knowing our Borough 2015. 2.1.2 Population density According to GLA 2015 SHLAA-based population projections (Capped Household Size model, short-term migration scenario), there are 34.2 people per hectare in Richmond compared to 55.1 per hectare in London and just 4.2 per hectare across England as a whole. This is the fifth lowest population density of all London boroughs which supports our understanding of Richmond as a green and open borough to live in. In Islington, the borough with the highest resident population density, there are 151.2 people per hectare. Bromley has lowest population density with 21.6 usual residents per hectare. 2.1.3 Daytime population The Greater London Authority produces estimates of the daytime population of London boroughs on an average day during school term time which can be broken down to estimate the working day population and working day population plus tourist visitors. The latest data for 2014 estimates that the workday population of Richmond (excluding tourists) is the fourth lowest of all London boroughs at 170,578. Only Barking and Dagenham, Sutton and Kingston upon Thames have lower workday populations. By comparison, Westminster has the highest workday population at over 721,351. When looking at the total daytime population (including tourists) Richmond has the fourth lowest population of all London boroughs at 189,731. Again the borough of Westminster (which is a central London tourist hotspot) has the highest total daytime population at 897,293. www.datarich.info 2.2 Race and ethnicity Looking at a high level breakdown of ethnic groups - 71.44% of the population of the borough are White British, 14.52% are White Other and 14.05% are BME. However, it’s important to look at the variation in different areas across the borough to truly understand how ethnically diverse local communities are. Table 2 - Variation in % population by ethnic group Rate Borough average Highest by ward Lowest by ward White British 71.44 80.72% - Teddington 30.44% - Heathfield White Other 14.52 21.16% S.Twickenham 9.12% - Hampton BME 14.05 30.44% - Heathfield 8.89% - Teddington Table 3 - % White Other of total population by ward The ward of Heathfield is the most ethnically diverse of the borough with 30.44% of the population of BME ethnic groups. Whitton also has a much larger proportion of BME residents than the borough average at 30.44%. Looking in more detail at the breakdown of BME ethnic groups, the largest BME ethnic group is Asian British: Indian with 2.78% of the borough population falling into this ethnic group. The Asian British: Indian population of the borough is concentrated in the wards of Heathfield (where this ethnic group accounts for 9.39% of the overall www.datarich.info population) and Whitton (6.3% of the overall population). In Mortlake and Barnes Common, only 0.8% of the population are Asian British: Indian. The White Other population is similarly clustered in specific areas of the borough with South Twickenham having the highest proportion of White Other residents by ward at 21.16%. Heathfield, which is shown to be very ethnically diverse when it comes to BME residents, has a much lower rate of White Other residents at 11.31%. The ward with the lowest rate is Teddington at 8.89%. Over the last ten years England, London and Richmond have all become more ethnically diverse. The borough is less ethnically diverse than London but generally more diverse than England overall with some notable exceptions. England has a considerably higher proportion of people of Pakistani ethnic group (2.1% England compared to 0.62% Richmond) and Black African and Caribbean ethnic group (1.84% in England compared to 0.88% in Richmond) Table 4 - Population by detailed ethnic group Percentage of the population Asian/Asian British: Indian Richmond London England 2.78 6.64 2.63 Asian/Asian British: Other Asian 2.47 4.88 1.55 Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Asian 1.53 1.24 0.63 Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: Other Mixed 1.04 1.45 0.53 Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group 1.01 2.14 0.62 Asian/Asian British: Chinese 0.94 1.52 0.72 Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African 0.88 7.02 1.84 Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black Caribbean 0.67 1.46 0.78 Other ethnic group: Arab 0.63 1.3 0.42 Asian/Asian British: Pakistani 0.62 2.74 2.1 Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi 0.46 2.72 0.82 Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean 0.45 4.22 1.11 Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black African 0.39 0.8 0.3 Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black 0.18 2.08 0.52 Census 2011 If we compare this information with the GLA 2014 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA-based ethnic group projections, Capped Household Size, short-term migration scenario), we can see the divergence between ethnic groupings in 2015 and those same groupings projected ahead to 2035. It is predicted that there will be a proportional fall in the White ethnic group from 85% to 82% with a 1% increase in the Other: Asian www.datarich.info and Bangladeshi groups. Figure 1 – Ethnic Group Forecast: 2015 and 2035 GLA 2014 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA-based ethnic group projections, Capped Household Size, short-term migration scenario) www.datarich.info 2.3 Age and gender The population of the borough is fairly evenly split by gender – 51% of the population are female and 49% are men, which is broadly in line with London and England. The pyramids below show the ONS Mid-2014 population estimates of males and females by age in Richmond compared to Wandsworth and the UK. There are proportionately fewer people aged 15-25 in Richmond than in Wandsworth and the UK. This may be because from 2001 to 2011 there were high levels of net inward migration, reflected in the widening of the graph at younger working ages. In part this was driven by the expansion of the European Union in 2004 and 2007. However, Richmond’s relative affluence, high rents and property prices make it difficult to live in for young workers in lower skilled trades hence this age group has not expanded significantly in the borough. Figure 2 - Population pyramid (Richmond upon Thames) www.datarich.info By contrast, in Wandsworth, between 2001 and 2011, there were significant population increases of 0 to 4 year olds, those aged 30 to 44 and 45 to 59. This reflects the high number of births over the last decade and a degree of ageing-on in the young adult population. Wandsworth has a proportionally bigger Working Age population. The median age in Richmond is 39, compared to just 33 in Wandsworth where there is a younger population. This contrasts starkly to across the UK where the median age is 40 and there are relatively more equal proportions across the age ranges. Figure 3 - Population pyramid (Wandsworth) Wandsworth has a younger population than most of the UK and ranks amongst the highest nationally in the proportion of the population aged 30 to 44 and aged 25 to 29. www.datarich.info Figure 4 - Population pyramid (United Kingdom) 2.3.1 Older people Older people are defined as those people living in the borough who are aged 65 or over. This group can be split further into types - ‘younger older people’ tend to be aged 65-75, are in fairly good health and are active and living independently. Those people aged 75+ can be grouped as ‘higher need older people’ although many of this age group may well be healthy and living independently, others within this age group have significant health problems which challenge their ability to live comfortably without care. www.datarich.info Figure 5 – Over 65s by Ward GLA Population Projection data, 2015 Figure 6 – Over 85s by Ward GLA Population Projection data, 2015 www.datarich.info People aged 65+ make up 14% of the total population of Richmond. This is predicted to rise to 18% by 2035. In contrast, people aged 65+ currently make up only 9% of the total population of Wandsworth. People aged 75+ make up 7% of the total population of Richmond. This is in contrast to Wandsworth where people aged 75+ currently make up only 4% of the total population. People aged 85+ make up 2% of the total population of Richmond. In Wandsworth, people aged 85+ currently make up only 1% of the total population. The most recent source of Dementia-related data is Dementia UK: A report into the prevalence and cost of dementia prepared by the Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU) at the London School of Economics and the Institute of Psychiatry at King’s College London, for the Alzheimer’s Society, 2007. In the table below, prevalence rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 65+ population to give estimated numbers of people predicted to have dementia by 2030. Table 5 - People aged 65 and over predicted to have dementia, projected to 2030 Age group 2015 2030 Aged 65-69 116 139 Aged 70-74 180 241 Aged 75-79 288 422 Aged 80-84 432 788 Aged 85-89 506 778 Aged 90+ 569 949 Total population aged 65+ 2090 3316 POPPI 2014 2.3.2 Children and young people Table 6 - Population by age Age groups Number 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 Total 14,433 13,032 10,429 9,223 47,117 ONS MYE 2014 www.datarich.info % of Total Population 7.5% 6.7% 5.4% 4.8% 24.4% % of Total 0-19 Population 30.6% 27.7% 22.1% 19.6% 100% The 0-19 children and young people (CYP) population makes up nearly a quarter of the total population of Richmond. The biggest age group is young children aged 0-4 which make up 7.5% of the total population of the borough and 31% of the 0-19 population. Between 2001 and 2014, the total population of children and young people in the borough, increased by 21%. The high attainment and good reputation of Richmond schools along with the green space and good transport links may make the borough particularly attractive to young families with children. Figure 7 - Increasing Richmond CYP population between 2001 and 2014 ONS MYE 2001-2014 The Office for National Statistics produces Sub National Population Projections which estimate the CYP population to the mid-2030s. This data projects that the population of CYP will increase by 16% (7,800) to a 2035 high of 55,700. www.datarich.info Figure 8 – CYP Population projections, 2015-35 For a comprehensive update on the numbers and characteristics of children and young people in the borough, please refer to the 2015 Children and Young People’s Needs Assessment. 2.4 Faith, religion and belief Table 7 - Population by religion % Area name Christian Buddhist (%) (%) Richmond 55.25 London 48.42 England 59.38 2011 Census 0.84 1 0.45 Hindu (%) 1.63 5.03 1.52 Jewish Muslim Sikh (%) (%) (%) 0.75 1.82 0.49 3.28 12.39 5.02 0.85 1.54 0.79 Other No religion religion (%) (%) 0.48 28.45 0.59 20.73 0.43 24.74 The largest religious group in the borough is Christian with 55.2% of the local population in the 2011 Census. By far the largest minority religion is Islam with 3.28% of residents declaring themselves Muslim. There is also a significant Hindu population at 1.63%. It is also important to note that in the ten years since the 2001 Census last provided an estimate of religious preference, there has been a significant rise in the population declaring that they have no religion - up 9% from 19.54% in 2001 to 28.45% in 2011. Figure 9 - % of the population who are Christian by ward (Census 2011) www.datarich.info The map above shows the variation in the proportion of Christians across wards in the borough – the darker the colour the higher the proportion of Christians in the area. The ward of East Sheen has the highest rate at 59.10% and Twickenham the lowest at 52.05%. The number of people who declared themselves Christian dropped by over 10% between 2001 and 2011, (65.83% in 2001 to 55.25% in 2011). Figure 10 - % of the population who are Muslim by ward (Census 2011) There is significant variation in the proportion of Muslims (the second biggest religion by proportion) in wards across the borough. In the ward of Heathfield in the west, 9.91% of the population are Muslim but in Teddington, the ward with the lowest proportion, this drops to just 1.08%. www.datarich.info 2.5 Disability A person has a disability if s/he has a physical or mental impairment which has a substantial and long-term adverse effect on that person’s ability to carry out normal dayto-day activities. For example, physical, sensory, mental health or learning disabilities. The Census definition also includes limiting long term illnesses. A range of information can help to build a picture of disability in the borough. In particular, it is known that: 21,447 or 11.5% of people in Richmond report that they have some form of disability or health problem that affects their day-to-day activities a lot or a little. This compares to 17.6% in England as a whole. 2,802 or 2% of people in Richmond aged 16-74 years consider themselves to be economically inactive due to a permanent sickness or disability, compared to 4% in England as a whole. 2.5.1 Learning Disabilities According to the projections sourced from Pansi - a website providing adult needs and service information jointly managed by Oxford Brookes University and the Institute of Public Care – and shown in the table below, nearly 3,000 people in the borough have a learning disability. Table 7 – Projections of the number of people with a learning or physical disability in Richmond, 2015 Age group Learning Disability (baseline estimate) Physical Disability (moderate or severe) 333 682 845 672 459 2,991 504 1151 1926 2794 3010 9,385 Aged 18-24 Aged 25-34 Aged 35-44 Aged 45-54 Aged 55-64 Total Pansi estimates1 1 LD definition - These predictions are based on prevalence rates in a report by Eric Emerson and Chris Hatton of the Institute for Health Research, Lancaster University, entitled Estimating Future www.datarich.info 2.5.2 Physical disabilities Pansi estimate that there are over 9,000 people in Richmond with a moderate or severe physical disability. At 30th September 2012, the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames recorded that there were 30 service users with a physical disability who were in a care home. A further 205 received some form of care at home via personal budget. 2.5.3 Mental Health Pansi predict nearly 20,000 people in the borough have a common mental disorder. Common mental disorders (CMDs) are mental conditions that cause marked emotional distress and interfere with daily function, but do not usually affect insight or cognition. They comprise depression and anxiety, and include obsessive compulsive disorder. More serious conditions affect far fewer people – for example, psychotic disorders that produce disturbances in thinking and perception severe enough to distort perception of reality including schizophrenia and affective psychosis, such as bi-polar disorder, are likely to affect under 500 people. The level of support required to enable people to lead healthy lives and improve their overall wellbeing, is much higher however. Table 8 – People aged 18-64 predicted having a mental health problem in Richmond, 2015 Condition 2015 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a common mental disorder 19,931 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a borderline personality disorder 559 People aged 18-64 predicted to have an antisocial personality disorder 423 People aged 18-64 predicted to have psychotic disorder 496 People aged 18-64 predicted to have two or more psychiatric disorders 8,873 2.6 Carers There are nearly 16,000 unpaid carers in the borough according to the 2011 Census. Need/Demand for Supports for Adults with Learning Disabilities in England, June 2004. The authors take the prevalence base rates and adjust these rates to take account of ethnicity (i.e. the increased prevalence of learning disabilities in South Asian communities) and of mortality (i.e. both increased survival rates of young people with severe and complex disabilities and reduced mortality among older adults with learning disabilities). PD definition - This table is based on the prevalence data for moderate and serious disability by age and sex included in the Health Survey for England, 2001, edited by Madhavi Bajekal, Paola Primatesta and Gillian Prior. www.datarich.info These people play a vital role in supporting family and friends with essential support in periods of crisis and throughout longer periods of decline in health and wellbeing. This support is important as it lessens strain on local health and social care provision but in turn, it is essential that carers themselves are supported to maintain happy and healthy lives to ensure they continue to be able to support those around them in this role. The majority of carers in Richmond (75%) provide between 1 and 19 hours of unpaid care a week, 10% provide between 20 and 49 hours and 15% spend a very significant portion of time caring for others at over 50 hours per week. Table 9 – Number and % of the population providing unpaid care (Census 2011) Provides 1 to Provides 50 or Provides 20 to Provides no 19 hours more hours 49 hours unpaid unpaid care unpaid care a unpaid care a Area name care a week week week Richmond London England % of Number pop 91.55 171,188 91.56 x 89.76 x % of pop 6.32 5.33 6.51 Number 11,816 x x % of pop 0.86 1.29 1.36 Number 1605 x x % of pop 1.27 1.83 2.37 Number 2,381 x x Residents of the borough are less likely to be providing unpaid care than those in either London or England. Overall, 92% of people are providing no informal care whatsoever compared to 90% in England. Table 10 - % of the population providing unpaid care by age (Census 2011) Area name Richmond London England % of unpaid carers aged 015 0.7 1.1 1.1 % of unpaid carers aged 1624 4 5.4 4.8 % of unpaid carers aged 2534 4.4 5.8 6.6 % of unpaid carers aged 3549 8.7 11.2 12.6 % of unpaid carers aged 5064 18.9 17.6 20.2 % of unpaid carers aged 65+ 13.6 12.4 13.8 Although there are proportionately fewer people aged 0-15 who provide informal care in Richmond at 0.7% that either London or England at 1.1%, it is important to consider the significance of providing care at such a young age. Children and young people who care must balance the demands of their formal schooling arrangements with the social developmental needs of young people while also providing care and support often to a www.datarich.info member of their family who usually would be caring for them. It is interesting to note also, that a greater proportion of the over 65 population in Richmond are carers compared to the over 65 population in London. Overall, nearly 14% of people aged 65+ are providing unpaid care and again, this is a group that needs additional support as carers themselves may be facing health conditions of their own alongside their wider caring responsibilities. 2.7 Transgender/Gender Reassignment In the UK, the term transgender is normally used as an umbrella term for all people who cross gender boundaries, whether this is permanent or not. The term transsexual is a medical term typically used for people who are seeking or have undergone gender reassignment. Estimating the population of the transgender community in Richmond upon Thames is difficult owing to the scarcity of data available and issues of data reliability. This makes it difficult for Council Officers, particularly those developing services for residents, to understand the potential impact on this sub-group of the population. For further information about how Richmond conducts research to estimate the local population, please view this report. 2.8 Marriage and Civil Partnerships Data on the sexual orientation of Richmond residents is very limited. Nationally, it is estimated that lesbian, gay and bisexual people constitute 5-7% of the total adult population2. From this, we could estimate that there are between 9,568 and 13,340 lesbian, gay and bisexual residents living in Richmond. However, one additional indicator relating to sexual orientation is the proportion of the population entering into Civil Partnership. Same sex couple have been legally able to enter a Civil Partnership since 2004, the data below captures the proportion of people by gender, that have done so in Richmond. 2 Department for Trade and Industry, 2005 www.datarich.info Table 11 - Population entered into Civil Partnerships Civil Partners, Civil Partners, females (% of males (% of Area Name females aged males aged 16+) (2012) 16+) (2012) Richmond .01 (11) London 0.01 England 0.01 Office for National Statistics, 2012 .04 (27) 0.04 0.02 In Richmond, a greater proportion of males have entered into Civil Partnerships than women. For men, the rate in Richmond is equal to that in London at 0.04% of the male population aged over 16 but higher than the national rate of 0.02% across England. 2.9 The Index of Multiple Deprivation The Indices of Deprivation 2015 provide a set of relative measures of deprivation for small areas (Lower-layer Super Output Areas, LSOAs). The IMD allows us to compare deprivation and look at the change in rankings from previous versions of the data. It does not allow us, however, to quantify precisely how deprived an area is or indeed, how affluent an area is or to identify individuals or specific households that are deprived. There are no areas in the Borough ranked in the most deprived decile of local authorities in England i.e. the 10% most deprived areas. This mirrors our understanding of Richmond as a fairly affluent area with high house prices, a skilled population and relatively high resident earnings. However, there are small pockets of deprivation across the borough and one small area, in the ward of Hampton North, falls into the second 20% most deprived small areas in England. This is significant as in 2010 no areas fell within the 20% most deprived in the country. There are concentrations of relatively deprived areas in the ward of Hampton North, Heathfield and Barnes. In particular, between 2010 and 2015, there are a cluster of small areas in Hampton North ward which have become relatively more deprived during this period. The number of LSOAs in Richmond falling into the least deprived 10% in the country is up from 17 in 2010 to 20 in 2015 www.datarich.info The following map shows the breakdown of LSOAs in Richmond by IMD decile. The blue areas are the most deprived and the bright yellow areas, the least. Clusters of more deprived areas can be seen in Heathfield and Hampton North in particular. Figure 11 - Deprivation across LSOAs www.datarich.info How do we compare to other Local Authority areas in terms of deprivation? When compared with other Local Authorities in London and England as a whole, Richmond is one of the least deprived (the 296th least deprived out of 326 LAs). Richmond remains the least deprived of all the 33 London Boroughs while Newham is the most deprived borough in London. However, there are domains in which Richmond scores less favourable against other Local Authorities, in particular the Living Environment Deprivation which measures the quality of the local environment in which Richmond ranks as the 48th most deprived out of 326 LAs. The indicators in this domain fall into two sub-domains: the ‘indoors’ living environment measures the quality of housing; while the ‘outdoors’ living environment contains measures of air quality and road traffic accidents. Richmond also ranks as fairly deprived in the Crime domain (105/326) which measures the risk of personal and material victimisation at local level. Table 13 - Average rank of Richmond against 326 LA districts3 in England, by domain element, IMD 2015 Richmond rank Overall Index 296 Income 293 Employment 313 Education 326 Health 319 Crime 105 Barriers 190 Living 48 IDACI 303 IDAOPI 242 Type The 2015 IMD provides an interesting update on deprivation in Wandsworth. In 2010, 28% of all LSOAs in Wandsworth were in the most deprived 30% across the whole of England. In 2015, this had reduced to 17%. At the other end of the scale, in 2010 only 9% were in the 30% least deprived areas in the whole of England but by 2015 this had 3 Local authority districts include lower-tier non-metropolitan districts, London boroughs, unitary authorities and metropolitan districts. At the time of publication, there were 326 local authority districts in England. The IDACI is an index focussing on deprivation affecting children and the IDAOPI, deprivation affecting older people. www.datarich.info risen significantly to 23% - more LSOAs in Wandsworth are now in the least deprived across all of England. How has this changed since 2010? In 2010, only 3% of LSOAs within Richmond fell within the 30% most deprived areas in England and all of these areas featured within the 30% decile. In 2015, 4% of LSOAs feature in the 30% most deprived areas including one in the 20% most deprived (in Hampton North) which tells us that this area in particular, is now relatively more deprived. The percentage of LSOAs falling into the least deprived 30% of all small areas in England remained the same between 2010 and 2015 at 70% of all Richmond LSOAs. There has been an increase in the number of Richmond LSOAs falling into the least deprived 10% in the country, up from 17 in 2010 to 20 in 2015. Table 14 – LSOAs by decile, change 2010-2015 Deciles Most deprived 10% IMD 2010 % of LSOAs total within LSOAs decile within decile 0 0% 2nd decile 3rd decile 4th decile 5th decile 6th decile 7th decile 8th decile 9th decile Least deprived 10% 0 3 3 5 8 15 26 37 17 114 0% 3% 3% 4% 7% 13% 23% 32% 15% 100% IMD 2015 % of LSOAs total within LSOAs decile within decile 0 0% 1 3 4 5 8 14 19 41 20 115 1% 3% 3% 4% 7% 12% 17% 36% 17% 100% Change 2010-15 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -7 4 3 *Please note, boundary changes introduced following the 2011 Census increased the number of LSOAs in Richmond from 114 to 115 meaning the data is not directly comparable between 2010 and 2015. In Wandsworth, the post-2011 LSOA boundary change created an additional 5 small areas taking their total LSOA count to 179. The IMD does not allow us to quantify exactly how deprived an area is or how deprivation in actual terms compares between 2010 and 2015. This means that while we now know how relatively deprived each small area is in Richmond, we cannot www.datarich.info necessarily conclude that standards of living have dropped in certain areas or that people are more deprived than they were five years ago. A small area which now falls into the 20% most deprived in England may indeed be more deprived than it was 5 years ago but alternatively, the level of deprivation in other areas across the country may have improved which would then influence the index ranking. 3 Further information DataRich Equality and Diversity section DataRich Ward Profiles Children and Young People’s Needs Assessment 2015 For more information on this report, please contact Tarnveer Singh. www.datarich.info
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