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output, lagged output
output, lagged money growth
output, lagged inflation
output, lagged interest rate
1
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
money growth, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged inflation
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
inflation, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
inflation, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
inflation, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
interest rate, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
interest rate, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged interest rate
1
0
40
-1
0
1
-1
32
inflation, lagged interest rate
1
0
24
-1
0
1
-1
16
money growth, lagged interest rate
1
-1
8
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
8
16
24
Figure 1. Vector Autocorrelation Functions, Pre-1979, Sticky-Price Model (dashed line) and Data (solid line)
32
40
output, lagged output
output, lagged money growth
output, lagged inflation
output, lagged interest rate
1
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
money growth, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged inflation
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
inflation, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
inflation, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
inflation, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
interest rate, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
interest rate, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged interest rate
1
0
40
-1
0
1
-1
32
inflation, lagged interest rate
1
0
24
-1
0
1
-1
16
money growth, lagged interest rate
1
-1
8
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
8
16
24
Figure 2. Vector Autocorrelation Functions, Post-1979, Sticky-Price Model (dashed line) and Data (solid line)
32
40
output, lagged output
output, lagged money growth
output, lagged inflation
output, lagged interest rate
1
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
money growth, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged inflation
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
inflation, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
inflation, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
inflation, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
interest rate, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
interest rate, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged interest rate
1
0
40
-1
0
1
-1
32
inflation, lagged interest rate
1
0
24
-1
0
1
-1
16
money growth, lagged interest rate
1
-1
8
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
8
16
24
Figure 3. Vector Autocorrelation Functions, Pre-1979, Flexible-Price Model (dashed line) and Data (solid line)
32
40
output, lagged output
output, lagged money growth
output, lagged inflation
output, lagged interest rate
1
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
money growth, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
money growth, lagged inflation
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
inflation, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
inflation, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
inflation, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
interest rate, lagged output
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged money growth
8
16
24
32
40
0
interest rate, lagged inflation
1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1
8
16
24
32
40
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
8
16
24
32
40
interest rate, lagged interest rate
1
0
40
-1
0
1
-1
32
inflation, lagged interest rate
1
0
24
-1
0
1
-1
16
money growth, lagged interest rate
1
-1
8
-1
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
8
16
24
Figure 4. Vector Autocorrelation Functions, Post-1979, Flexible-Price Model (dashed line) and Data (solid line)
32
40