Ecological Applications, 15(2), 2005, pp. 507–520 q 2005 by the Ecological Society of America QUANTIFYING SPATIAL PATTERN WITH EVENNESS INDICES LAURA X. PAYNE,1,4 DANIEL E. SCHINDLER,2 JULIA K. PARRISH,2 AND STANLEY A. TEMPLE3 1Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA and School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USA 2School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences and Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USA 3Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA Abstract. Quantifying the spatial distributions of organisms in simple and meaningful ways is important for understanding the ecology and habitat needs of species subject to anthropogenic disturbances. Most multi-species conservation and management programs do not yet account for the variation of space-use patterns exhibited by species preferring the same habitat type. To measure species’ space-use patterns as a step toward determining habitat needs, we suggest using evenness indices. Although commonly used in characterizing communities (i.e., as a measure of species diversity), these indices are suitable for characterizing many other ecological patterns, including patterns of site use by individuals. We investigate the statistical properties of five indices (Camargo’s index of evenness, E9; Simpson’s index of evenness, E1/D̂; Lloyd’s index of mean crowding, J; Smith-Wilson index Evar; and Dispersion index, DL, a variant of the Shannon diversity index) to evaluate their utility for quantifying broad-scale spatial patterns of migratory shorebirds. We use a Monte Carlo simulation approach to compare these indices for their (1) ability to characterize a wide range of spatial patterns (from even to patchy); (2) ability to discriminate among distributions; and (3) robustness to incomplete sampling. In addition, we compare the ability of these indices to characterize spatial dispersion for four species of shorebirds migrating through the United States: Killdeer (Charadrius vociferus), Semipalmated Plover (C. semipalmatus), Sanderling (Calidris alba), and Red Knot (C. canutus). Overall, we recommend Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices for quantifying spatial dispersion. All three indices gave precise and unbiased estimates once 35 or more sites (3.5% of 1000 simulated sites) were sampled randomly, regardless of the degree of patchiness. Nonrandom sampling resulted in biased estimates until a much greater proportion of sites (at least 30–50%) were sampled, highlighting the importance of site selection in sampling programs. Our analysis of shorebird spatial patterns revealed that evenness indices discriminate well among the species we considered, ranking Killdeer as most dispersed and Red Knot as most aggregated. Our results agree with earlier (independent) assessments of these species’ migration strategies and illustrate how simple univariate metrics may be useful tools for characterizing complex spatial patterns. Key words: Camargo’s index of evenness; conservation; dispersion; evenness index; Lloyd’s index of mean crowding; migration; Shannon diversity index; shorebird; Simpson’s index of evenness; Smith–Wilson index; spatial pattern. INTRODUCTION Understanding the spatial patterns of organisms on the landscape is of central importance to ecology and conservation (Turner 1989, Tilman 1994). Spatial pattern, or dispersion, refers to the spatial composition of organisms on the landscape, i.e., the relative proportion of organisms distributed among a number of habitat patches or sites (Krebs 1999, Read and Lam 2002). Abiotic and biotic factors, including habitat availability, abundance of resources, and species interactions, are important determinants of dispersion (Coomes et al. 1999, Thomas et al. 2001, Mouillot and Wilson Manuscript received 24 January 2003; revised 25 May 2004; accepted 11 June 2004; final version received 6 July 2004. Corresponding Editor: C. A. Wessman. 4 E-mail: [email protected] 2002). However, species’ responses to these factors are quite variable, so that spatial patterns found in nature are often heterogeneous. For instance, shorebirds (sandpipers, plovers, and their allies) show diverse migratory strategies, which result in variable spatial patterns of habitat use at the landscape scale (Fig. 1). Some species fly moderate distances each time they move, stopping to feed opportunistically in small numbers at wetland sites encountered at the end of each migratory movement (e.g., Pectoral Sandpiper, Calidris melanotos [Farmer and Wiens 1999]). Others make marathon flights, stopping at a few, traditionally used wetlands where they concentrate in huge numbers (e.g., Red Knot, C. canutus [Harrington 2001]). Such variability in shorebirds and other species has borne many insights into ecology but also presents difficulties for conservation planning, especially when 507 508 LAURA X. PAYNE ET AL. Ecological Applications Vol. 15, No. 2 FIG. 1. Contrasting spatial patterns of two hypothetical shorebird species at stopover sites during migration. Circle size reflects the relative number of individuals. At left, individuals are distributed quite evenly among numerous sites. At right, distribution is patchy, with most individuals occupying a single site. plans must integrate the complex needs of multiple species. For instance, despite evidence that some shorebirds exhibit a wide range of spatial patterns in certain regions during migration (Skagen and Knopf 1993, 1994, Iverson et al. 1996), conservation efforts do not yet reflect this breadth. Current efforts, such as the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network (WHSRN), focus primarily on wetlands where large aggregations occur, an approach that favors aggregated species (Myers et al. 1987, Harrington and Perry 1995). The lack of detailed information on many species’ migratory habits, and the related lack of coordinated or explicit efforts for non-aggregated species, leaves many at risk (U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan [Brown et al. 2001]). Until the diversity of land-use patterns is better documented for each shorebird species, decisions about which networks of sites to protect for shorebirds will continue to be modeled after the needs of the best-studied species, an approach that may fail because it does not account for variation in space use by different species. While our research focuses on shorebirds, this spatial mismatch between site use and sites identified for protection is a common problem of integrated, multi-species approaches. The tools available for examining spatial pattern vary widely, ranging from spatially non-explicit measures (e.g., heterogeneity, evenness, dominance, and aggregation indices; similarity coefficients), to spatially explicit metrics (e.g., quadrat variance methods, correlograms, geostatistics [variograms and Kriging], angular correlation, wavelets, SADIE [spatial analysis by distance indices], etc.; Krebs 1999, Dale et al. 2002). Spatially explicit metrics account for the geographic locations of individuals (or patches), while spatially non-explicit metrics quantify the relative distribution of individuals among a set of patches. Current trends in ecology emphasize the incorporation of spatial information into ecological analyses in increasingly sophisticated ways (Wiens 1989, Liebhold and Gurevitch 2002). While we welcome such a trend, not all pattern analyses require complex approaches to answer the questions at hand. Furthermore, because practitioners of conservation and management often seek easily interpreted metrics describing the ecology of focal species, increasingly sophisticated analyses are not always the most practical. Here, we propose a simple approach for quantifying species’ spatial patterns on a coarse scale, the key being to obtain some measure of how the distribution of shorebirds at wetland stopover sites varies among species, or across years. Many indices have been developed to quantify heterogeneity (Krebs 1999), including diversity, evenness, and patchiness indices. Diversity indices, traditionally used to quantify species diversity in communities, combine evenness (i.e., distribution of individuals among species) and richness (i.e., number of species present) into a single metric. Patchiness indices quantify the relative patchiness of an environment from the perspective of an organism occupying that environment (Lloyd 1967). Despite its importance, the challenge of measuring diversity so that index values are easily interpreted and different-sized samples may be compared directly remains difficult, and current tools are not universally accepted. This difficulty has prompted some to divide diversity into its two separate and measurable components, richness and evenness (Lloyd and Ghelardi 1964). While richness is sensitive to sample size and not usually recommended as a reliable index of diversity (without rarefaction), many evenness indices have robust properties and are well accepted (Krebs 1999). The most common approach to measuring evenness is to scale diversity indices by their maximum value, where all species contain the same number of individuals and are thus equally abundant (Krebs 1999). Various studies investigate the mathematical and biological properties of evenness indices, and have led to new insights in their utility (Heip and Engels 1974, April 2005 SPATIAL PATTERN AND EVENNESS INDICES Magurran 1988, Smith and Wilson 1996, Hubalek 2000). Smith and Wilson (1996) and Hubalek (2000) examined the statistical properties of over 30 evenness indices by testing them for essential and desirable features, including that indices must be independent of richness (number of sites), be sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of sites of minor importance, and be unaffected by the units used. Indices should also reach maximum values when distributions are even, minimum values when indices are extremely uneven, intermediate values when evenness is intermediate, and respond intuitively to symmetrical or asymmetrical changes in evenness; see Smith and Wilson (1996) for examples. These features have been recognized as important for heterogeneity measures by numerous other researchers (Heip and Engels 1974, Routledge 1979, Ricklefs and Lau 1980, Magurran 1988, Smith and Wilson 1996, Drobner et al. 1998, Krebs 1999, Wilson et al. 1999). Despite many advances in understanding index behavior, there is little consensus on a single ideal index. Rather, several indices seem to perform well under certain circumstances, although none is without limitation (Smith and Wilson 1996, Krebs 1999, Hubalek 2000). Furthermore, most analyses of the statistical behavior of indices have focused on highly simplified hypothetical systems, so that applying these scenarios to more complex, real-world situations is unclear. Consequently, we tested candidate indices prior to application, as suggested by Hubalek (2000) and Peet (1975). As the spatial analog of evenness indices measures the distribution of individuals among a set of sites, our goal in selecting evenness indices was to be able to measure how the distribution of shorebirds at wetland stopover sites varies among species, or across years. Hence, we examine index performance over the broad range of spatial distributions and sampling scenarios likely to be found in our system of interest: spatial patterns of migratory shorebirds. Our approach could be applied to any population where the abundance of organisms is known for multiple sites. For use in spatial-pattern analysis, evenness indices should be: (1) able to characterize a broad range of spatial patterns likely to be encountered in the environment (ranging from even to very uneven/‘‘patchy’’); (2) able to discriminate well among possible spatial patterns; (3) robust to variable sampling intensity (i.e., incomplete sampling); and (4) robust to biases in sampling (random vs. nonrandom). The final two points are of great importance when interpreting index values but have been overlooked almost entirely (but see Ricklefs and Lau [1980], who evaluated the effect of random subsampling on overlap indices). In our present paper we compare the behavior of five well-known indices– Camargo’s index of evenness E9 (Camargo 1993, 1995), Simpson’s index of evenness E1/D̂ (Simpson 1949, Krebs 1999), Lloyd’s index of mean crowding (scaled) J (Lloyd 1967), Smith-Wilson index Evar 509 (Smith and Wilson 1996), and Dispersion index DL (Payne 1997), a variant of the Shannon diversity index (Shannon and Weaver 1949, Pielou 1975)—and test indices for sensitivity to distinct spatial patterns, robustness to sampling intensity, and robustness to type of sampling. Finally, we compare the ability of these indices to characterize spatial patterns of actual shorebird abundance data, using four species of migratory shorebird. Multiple-species surveys, such as the International Shorebird Survey (ISS), may be used to estimate the relative abundance and distribution of shorebird species among wetlands across North America (Howe et al. 1989). The ISS surveys, conducted at over 1000 inland and coastal wetlands across the United States since the 1970s, represent the best data set available for quantifying shorebird spatial patterns at this nearly continental scale. To that end, we sought objective metrics to quantify, in the broadest way possible, spatial patterns of migratory shorebirds. We therefore investigate the use of evenness indices for their potential as accessible metrics of spatial pattern. MATERIALS AND METHODS We used a Monte Carlo approach (Ripley 1987) to evaluate the precision and accuracy of the five indices. We sought to determine the ability of evenness indices to detect differences among spatial patterns likely to be encountered in nature, and the robustness of these indices to incomplete sampling, in an approach similar to those of Smith and Wilson (1996) and Ricklefs and Lau (1980). First, we generated data sets representing different spatial patterns of organisms among sites, ranging from even to extremely patchy. Hereafter, we refer to each of these simulated spatial distributions as an underlying distribution, and to the entire suite of simulated distributions ranging from even to patchy as the distribution gradient. To test for sensitivity across the distribution gradient, we generated index values for 20 different distributions, and tested for discrimination ability among those distributions, using a minimal detectable difference (MDD) approach (Zar 1999). Second, we tested for robustness to sampling intensity by randomly subsampling from five representative distributions from the gradient: one even distribution, two intermediate distributions, and two patchy distributions. In other words, we sampled a fraction of sites from each underlying distribution and then increased the sampling fraction until all sites were sampled. Third, we tested for robustness to type of sampling by including nonrandom sampling where sites with large numbers of birds had a higher probability of being sampled; we repeated the subsampling procedures for variable sampling intensity. Finally, to evaluate the utility of these indices in differentiating among spatial distributions of species with a range of ecological and migratory strategies, we computed index values using actual data on four shorebird species: Killdeer (Char- Ecological Applications Vol. 15, No. 2 LAURA X. PAYNE ET AL. 510 TABLE 1. Typical characteristics of four shorebird species during fall migration through the United States, as described by independent sources. Gregariousness during migration†§ Wetland habitat preference Extent of occurrence at wetlands Sanderling low: mainly small groups moderate: variable group sizes moderate Red Knot high wide range; grassy to estuarine†§ coastal, also inland wetland margins† sandy ocean beaches, also inland wetlands†§ mainly coastal† widespread†‡§ intermediate†§ to widespread†‡ intermediate‡ to widespread† relatively few sites†‡§ Species Killdeer Semipalmated Plover † Hayman et al. (1986). Information is for global range. ‡ Skagen et al. (1999). Information is for migration through central U.S. states (between 908 and 1208 W. latitude). § Birds of North America species accounts (variable authors and years); information is for North America during migration. Authors, by species, are: Killdeer (Jackson and Jackson 2000), Semipalmated Plover (Nol and Blanken 1999), Sanderling (MacWhirter et al. 2002), and Red Knot (Harrington 2001). adrius vociferus), Semipalmated Plover (C. semipalmatus), Sanderling (Calidris alba), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). These species exhibit a range of habitat preferences, social behaviors, and overall abundances (Table 1) shared by many of the 40 species of shorebird that migrate commonly through North America each spring and fall. Index descriptions We compared four commonly used evenness indices, all with slightly different mathematical properties. We based our selection on results from the Smith and Wilson (1996) analysis, and we included an additional patchiness index, Lloyd’s index of mean crowding ( J). While other indices exist, we limited our analysis to the following five, as they are commonly used, well understood, and have been proven in a variety of ecological or statistical studies (Krebs 1999). Camargo’s index of evenness, E9 (Camargo 1993, 1995): [O O 1z p 2s p z 2] s E9 5 1 2 s i j (1) i51 j5i11 where pi 5 proportion of individuals of a species at site i; pj 5 proportion at site j; and s 5 total number of sites in sample. Index values range from 0 (patchy) to 1 (even). This index is relatively unaffected by sites with very few organisms, and is unaffected by site richness (Krebs 1999). Simpson’s measure of evenness, E1/D̂ (variant of Simpson 1949): E1/Dˆ 5 ˆ 1/D s (2) where D̂ 5 Sp2i and pi 5 proportion of total individuals of a species at site i, and s 5 number of sites in the sample. This evenness index is a variant of the reciprocal Simpson index, D̂ (Simpson 1949). Index values range from near 0 (1/s) (patchy or skewed) to 1 (even), and the index is relatively unaffected by sites with very few individuals. Lloyd’s index of mean crowding, J (Lloyd 1967, Ives 1991): [O n (n(Ns2) 1)] 2 N s i J5 i i51 N 5 V 1 2 N2 N (3) where V 5 the sample variance, ni 5 number of individuals of a species occupying site i (i 5 1 to s), N 5 mean number of individuals occupying sites, and s 5 number of sites occupied by that species. For comparative purposes with the other four indices, we bounded the index between 0 (patchily distributed individuals) and 1 (randomly distributed) by transforming J with: 1/(1 1 J) (4) In this scaled form, Lloyd’s index calculates the amount of increase in the expected number of individuals occupying the same site, above what the expected number would be if individuals were randomly and independently distributed. This index is used to assess the average degree of crowding experienced per individual (Lloyd 1967). Smith and Wilson index, Evar (Smith and Wilson 1996): Evar 5 1 2 O [ ln(n ) 2 O ln(sn )] s i51 2 arctan p s j i 2 j51 s (5) where ni 5 number of individuals of a species at site i in sample (i 5 1, 2, 3, 4, . . . s), nj 5 number of individuals at site j in sample ( j 5 1, 2, 3, 4, . . . s), s 5 total number of sites in sample. This evenness index ranges from 0 (patchy or skewed) to 1 (even). The index is mathematically symmetrical (equally sensitive to sites with many organisms and those with few organisms), and estimates evenness at occupied sites only. Dispersion index, DL (Payne 1997), a variant of J9 of Pielou (1975), and based on H9 of Shannon (Shannon and Weaver 1949): O p ln( p ) s DL 5 H9/ ln Ss where H9 5 2 i51 i i (6) and pi proportion of individuals of a species at site i, SPATIAL PATTERN AND EVENNESS INDICES April 2005 s 5 number of sites occupied by that species, Ss total number of sites surveyed. Values range from 0 (patchy) to 1 (even). This index is asymmetrical (somewhat sensitive to sites with fewest hypothetical organisms), and mathematically incorporates sites surveyed but with zero individuals, unlike the original J9 (Pielou 1975). As with most metrics in ecology, evenness indices are commonly used to measure only a few types of patterns, although they are theoretically suited for measuring many others. Because we wished to measure evenness across all sites (not just sites occupied with $1 individual), we made a minor adjustment by adding a small number (0.01) to each site before computing Camargo and Simpson indices (Lloyd and Dispersion gave identical results). Note that this constant was arbitrarily selected from a range of others (0.1 to 0.001), all of which we tested and gave similar results. This simple procedure resulted in appropriate results for all indices except Smith-Wilson, which for mathematical reasons (ln terms; see Eq. 5) responds differently; hence, we simply computed Smith-Wilson directly (without adding a site constant), and include it here to characterize evenness among occupied sites only. Simulating spatial distributions In order to test index performance, we used a gamma distribution to simulate the spatial distribution of organisms across multiple sites. The gamma distribution is described by the probability density function f (z) 5 ms 2m z s21 e z G (s) (7) where parameter sigma (s) controls the shape of the density, and the product of s and m determines the average density at a site (Hilborn and Mangel 1997). This attribute of the gamma distribution enabled us to control for the number of organisms on the model landscape. The gamma distribution provides an excellent approximation of often-skewed spatial patterns commonly found in ecological data, such as spatial heterogeneity of plant biomass (Shiyomi et al. 2000), populations of soil mites (Benton et al. 2002), foraging rates of wild goats (Kohlmann et al. 1999), or developmental phases of aquatic invertebrates (Souissi and Ban 2001), among many other examples. Its simplicity makes it desirable for simulation modeling (Hilborn and Mangel 1997), and the gamma distribution provided suitable fits to spatial pattern data for 34 of the 35 shorebird species we tested (P . 0.05, KolmogorovSmirnov goodness-of-fit test; Zar 1999). We simulated a wide range of distributions to approximate spatial heterogeneity, ranging from even, where individuals were spread evenly among many sites, to very aggregated, where most individuals occur at just a few sites. To generate each distribution, m was set as the complement of s, where the product of m and s always equaled 103. The number of individuals within a sampling universe of 103 sites was set at 106 511 FIG. 2. Changes in two attributes of the gamma distribution along a gradient from evenness to patchiness. The falling curve (solid line) represents the average proportion of sites occupied (i.e., sites with $1 individual), and the rising curve (dotted line) represents the proportion of total individuals at the site with the highest number of individuals. Each point along the curve is the mean (61 SD) of 100 replicates at each value of s, the parameter controlling patchiness. Note that the proportion of sites occupied remains high and constant for the range s 5 101 to 103 (even to intermediate) and then drops rapidly as s approaches 106 (extremely patchy). In contrast, the proportion of individuals at the top site remains very low until s 5 103 and then increases steadily, with variability also growing larger, as s increases. Roman numerals indicate five representative distributions used in subsequent analyses: even (I), intermediate (II and III), and patchy (IV and V). 6 2%. In sum, for each simulation, the model randomly selected 103 numbers from a gamma distribution with parameters m and s, and these numbers, when summed across 103 hypothetical sites, totaled approximately 10 6 organisms. Index sensitivity to different distributions To compare indices for sensitivity to different distributions, we ran 100 simulations for 20 separate distributions (i.e., levels of s) ranging from even (s 5 101) to extremely patchy (s 5 106). We compared index sensitivity in two ways, graphically and statistically. First, we overlaid all index values onto a single plot, comparing average index values at each of the 20 distributions considered (Fig. 2). Second, we compared five representative distributions (see next section, and Table 2) using a formal statistical test, the minimum detectible difference (MDD) approach (Zar 1999): Ecological Applications Vol. 15, No. 2 LAURA X. PAYNE ET AL. 512 d$ ! 2sp2 [t 1 tb(1),v ] n a,v (8) where d is the size difference between two population means (for a specified detection probability), s2p is the pooled variance for every pair of distributions, n is the number of sites (n 5 1000), t is the critical value of the t distribution, a is the level of significance (a 5 0.05), b is the chance of detecting a true difference between population means (b 5 0.90), and v is the degrees of freedom for each comparison (v 5 198). The graphical display enabled us to compare index behavior across the entire distribution gradient; d values from the MDD test yield discrimination ability, where low values indicate superior discrimination. Sampling simulated distributions To test indices for robustness to nonrandom sampling, we first chose five levels of s to represent distinct distributions ranging from even to extremely patchy: s 5 101 (I, approximately even); s 5 103 and 104 (II and III, intermediate); and s 5 105 and 106 (IV and V, patchy and extremely patchy). These distributions cover a very wide range, with distinct site occupancy levels and relative distributions of individual abundances among sites (Fig. 2). For each distribution, we subsampled at different sample sizes (i.e., number of sites), increasing sample size exponentially (step 5 n1.6) from a minimum of 10 sites to 100% of the sites in the sampling universe. For example, in a universe of 1000 sites, the number of sites sampled increased as follows: 10, 15, 23, 36, 57, 90, 143, 230, 374, 613, and 1000. We sampled with greater frequency at lower coverage because indices were most sensitive to changes in sampling intensity when fewer sites were sampled. We subsampled at each level of coverage 1000 times. We repeated the procedure for two different types of sampling (random and nonrandom), subject to the constraint that each subsample must include at least 10 individuals. For the Smith-Wilson index (which quantifies evenness among occupied sites only), we imposed the additional constraint that each subsample include at least three sites with $1 individual. We included these constraints to avoid biologically meaningless index values computed from samples with too little data. For the nonrandom sampling protocol, we used a simple logistic model to simulate sampling routines where the probability of an individual site being sampled was proportional to the number of organisms at that site (Fig. 3). We simulated this scenario to reflect the possibility that sites with more birds may be sampled more frequently than sites without birds. We set a constant minimum sampling probability level (i.e., minimum number of individuals below which the probability that a site will be sampled is unchanged), and a maximum sampling probability threshold (i.e., number of individuals above which additional individuals FIG. 3. Plot illustrating random (dashed line) vs. nonrandom (solid line) sampling probability functions. In random sampling, all sites with $1 individual have an equal probability of being sampled; the probability value of 0.5 was chosen only for graphical purposes here. In nonrandom sampling, sites with more individuals have a correspondingly higher probability of being sampled. The values for the lower and upper probability limits are arbitrary but reflect the realistic assumption that sampling (especially at the continental scale) is always incomplete. will not increase the probability of a site being sampled). Within those bounds, sampling probability increases logistically as the number of birds per site increases. We then compared results for the random and nonrandom scenarios to determine the robustness of each index to nonrandom sampling. For all analyses, we used a simulated universe of 1000 sites, and we set 10 sites as the arbitrary minimum number of sites sampled. This allowed us to gauge index performance at sample sizes of 10 and greater, approximating small samples common to field studies. The output of each simulation procedure included all five index values (mean and 1 SD of 1000 replicates), percentage of total sites sampled, and the underlying distribution of organisms on the simulated landscape. Shorebird data set The International Shorebird Survey provided shorebird data (see Howe et al. [1989], for ISS survey methodology and details of geographic coverage) consisting of visual counts of individual shorebird species from .1000 inland and coastal wetland sites in the conterminous United States during fall migration. We selected four species that stop to feed at wetlands in the interior and coastal United States during fall migration; these species peak in numbers during August. Despite timing similarities, these species vary in many other characteristics, including (but not limited to) gregariousness (typically forming small groups vs. extensive flocks), habitat preference (coastal vs. inland/fresh), and overall occurrence on the landscape (widespread vs. localized; Table 1). SPATIAL PATTERN AND EVENNESS INDICES April 2005 FIG. 4. Comparison of index values (mean and standard deviations) of five different heterogeneity indices across a range of distributions, from even (I) to extremely patchy (V). Note that lines for Simpson E1/D and Lloyd (J ) indices overlap entirely. To standardize ISS counts in space, we averaged counts for each species separately across wetlands surveyed within the same 10-minute latitude/longitude ‘‘block’’ (area ; 100 km2). We quantified the spatial pattern of four shorebird species with each index, subject to the same constraints as those used for the simulations (see Sampling simulated distributions, above). For this study, we present data for a single year for which sampling coverage was excellent (1977, n 5 105 blocks reporting). Because early ISS efforts surveyed wetlands east of the Rocky Mountains preferentially (Howe et al. 1989), these results reflect species’ spatial patterns for the midcontinental and eastern United States. We used bootstrapping (n 5 1000 replicates) to generate estimates for mean index values and 95% confidence intervals. Bootstrapping (Smith and Van Belle 1984) enabled us to estimate confidence intervals associated with a single estimate, an approach that is widely recommended for ecological analysis (Krebs 1999). RESULTS Index sensitivity to different distributions Graphical comparisons.—All five indices were sensitive to differences among most of the simulated distributions (Fig. 4). All indices approached a maximum value (close to 1) when distributions were nearly even, 513 and minimum value (close to 0) as distributions became increasingly patchy. (Note that, although the average value of the Dispersion index at s 5 1 000 000 was ;0.15, some runs of the model (i.e., 10%) produced values ,0.05 at this s level, a result we consider adequately sensitive to extremely patchy distributions). Additionally, all indices yielded intermediate values for intermediate distributions, although index values differed owing to the different mathematical properties of each index. Discrimination analysis.—All indices discriminated among all but one pair of simulated distributions at the power (90%) and sample sizes (100 replicates of 1000 sites each) that we specified (Table 2a). However, Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices discriminated best, with discrimination ability highest across all distributions (especially II to V). The Smith-Wilson index gave consistently low d values (Table 2a), but when these were compared to actual differences (Table 2b), that index’s ability to discriminate declined as distributions became patchier, indicating weak discrimination ability for patchy distributions. In contrast, the discrimination ability of the Dispersion index increased with patchiness, but that index failed to detect actual differences at the even end of the gradient (d 5 0.1420, difference 5 0.0601). For every pair of distributions compared, the Dispersion index had weaker discrimination ability than the other indices. Sensitivity to incomplete sampling: random sampling Across all sampling intensities, estimates were unbiased for the most even distributions, where ‘‘bias’’ is defined as the difference between an index value at TABLE 2. Minimum detectable difference values (d) and observed differences among population means, generated for five distributions (I, II, III, IV, and V). Distributions Dispersion Simpson Lloyd SmithWilson Camargo a) Minimum detectable differences, d† I to II 0.1420 0.1148 0.1150 II to III 0.1232 0.0526 0.0528 III to IV 0.0872 0.0098 0.0100 IV to V 0.0462 0.0013 0.0013 0.1092 0.0376 0.0101 0.0072 0.1106 0.0532 0.0123 0.0015 b) Differences I to II II to III III to IV IV to V 0.6400 0.2725 0.0270 0.0129 0.4442 0.3822 0.1033 0.0118 in index 0.0601 0.2081 0.3140 0.2766 means‡ 0.4907 0.4061 0.0819 0.0091 0.4903 0.4059 0.0835 0.0090 † d values indicate the minimum detectible size difference between two population means when the probability of detecting a difference is 90%. Each population is composed of 100 replicates of each index, generated using the same parameter values of the gamma distribution. Smaller d values indicate superior discrimination. Specific comparisons are named in the first column; see Fig. 2 for characteristics of each distribution. ‡ Differences in index means among populations generated for each distribution. Specific comparisons are named in the first column; mean values for each index and distribution (I to V) are plotted in Fig. 4. 514 LAURA X. PAYNE ET AL. Ecological Applications Vol. 15, No. 2 Dispersion and Smith-Wilson indices gave less precise estimates for both the patchy (1 SD . 0.1 when coverage ,5%) and extremely patchy (1 SD . 0.1 for all coverages ,60%) distributions. Sensitivity to incomplete sampling: nonrandom sampling FIG. 5. Bias, or change in mean index value (left column), and precision, or 1 SD (right), as a function of sampling intensity. Bias is the difference between an index value at 100% coverage and its value at a lower sampling intensity. Each row represents one spatial distribution, from even (I) to extremely patchy (V). 100% sampling coverage and its value at a lower sampling intensity. However, as the patchiness of the underlying distribution increased, the effect of reduced sampling intensity on bias also increased (Fig. 5). Bias was smallest for Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices, and greatest for Dispersion and Smith-Wilson. However, even for the distributions at which bias was greatest (i.e., intermediate and patchy), bias was negligible (i.e., #0.1) for Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd once 2– 3% of sites were sampled; hence, these three indices performed best under this criterion (Fig. 5). Results for precision were similar, with all indices yielding precise estimates for even distributions, but with precision decreasing slightly as distributions became patchier (Fig. 5). However, even for the distributions at which precision was poorest (distributions II through IV), Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices gave acceptably precise estimates (i.e., 1 SD # 0.1) once 2–3% of sites were sampled (Fig. 5). In contrast, We detected a potentially strong effect of nonrandom sampling on index performance at intermediate to patchy distributions (Fig. 6). In general, nonrandom sampling yielded biased estimates for all indices until 20–30% of sites were sampled. The magnitude of bias for Camargo, Simpson, Lloyd, and Smith-Wilson indices was greater for the nonrandom than for the random case, until 20–30% of sites were sampled. For the Dispersion index, the direction of bias was opposite to the random case and magnitude was similar, but index values did not converge until 100% sampling, indicating that all subsampling resulted in biased estimates (for distributions II to IV). In sum, sampling schemes that overrepresent large sites appear to have the greatest effect on indices for intermediate and patchy distributions, with Camargo, Simpson, Lloyd, and SmithWilson indices performing similarly. Note that the lower biases generated for extremely patchy distributions are likely due to the sampling constraints imposed by our pseudo-random sampling protocol (i.e., that subsamples must have $3 sites occupied and $10 birds to be included for computation). Although it is simple to run unconstrained subroutines at extremely patchy distributions (for which we would expect the highest bias), such an exercise would produce unrealistic results, because it is biologically meaningless to compute index values on entirely empty samples or on samples with very few birds. Hence, we imposed the modest constraint that we thought best reflected the way these indices might be used, and the bias responded as expected: it became lower, because the scant sites that actually have birds were selected disproportionately often in the same sampling routine. Overall index performance All indices responded to differences in underlying spatial distribution and sampling intensity, but indices differed in: (a) sensitivity to underlying distribution; (b) bias; (c) precision; and (d) robustness to several sources of error (b and c), as a function of sample size and underlying distribution (Table 3). In general, patchiness tends to exacerbate any weaknesses (i.e., lack of robustness) in index behavior, as does low sampling intensity. These weaknesses are further exacerbated by nonrandom sampling, with bias considerable until 20– 30% of sites are sampled. As sampling intensity increases and distributions become more uniform, bias decreases. Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices performed the best and similarly under most circumstances. April 2005 SPATIAL PATTERN AND EVENNESS INDICES 515 FIG. 6. Effect of nonrandom (dotted lines) and random (dashed lines) sampling on index behavior. Each row represents one spatial distribution, from even (I) to extremely patchy (V). Nonrandom sampling increases the magnitude of bias, so that the minimum number of sites that must be sampled to reduce bias to a negligible level exceeds 100 sites (10%). Shorebird data DISCUSSION All five indices ranked the spatial patterns of the species we tested in the same sequence, with Killdeer appearing most dispersed, followed by Semipalmated Plover, Sanderling, and Red Knot (Fig. 7). Camargo and Dispersion indices yielded significant differences among all species, with relatively narrow confidence intervals. Simpson and Lloyd indices yielded significant differences among all species except Killdeer and Semipalmated Plover, for which confidence intervals overlapped; confidence intervals were generally wider for all species. The Smith-Wilson index, which characterized dispersion at occupied sites only (and had the narrowest confidence intervals, as expected), showed significant differences among all species. Simulations Results of our model simulations corroborate earlier findings (e.g., Smith and Wilson 1996) that the indices we selected respond unequally to different underlying distributions. Our results also reveal new findings: that some evenness indices are more robust to incomplete sampling and type of sampling. Overall, no index outperformed all others; however, Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd performed better for most criteria tested (Tables 2 and 3). Our results differ from earlier findings (Smith and Wilson 1996) in that the Smith-Wilson index did not perform as well under the conditions we tested (except for discrimination ability, Table 2a). However, LAURA X. PAYNE ET AL. 516 Ecological Applications Vol. 15, No. 2 TABLE 3. Comparison chart of index behavior across the criteria we tested. Sampling intensity (percentage of sites sampled) Index 1% 3% 5–6% 8–11% 30–40% 50–60% Camargo, E9 Precision Biasr Biasnr o o 2 1 o 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 o 1 1 1 Lloyd, J Precision Biasr Biasnr o o 2 o o 2 o 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 o 1 1 1 Simpson, E1/D̂ Precision Biasr Biasnr o o 2 o o 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 o Dispersion, DL Precision Biasr Biasnr 2 2 2 o 2 2 1 2 2 1 o 2 1 1 o 1 1 1 Smith-Wilson, Evar Precision 2 2 Biasr Biasnr 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 o o o 1 1 Notes: We tested for precision, bias with random sampling (Biasr), and bias with nonrandom sampling (Biasnr). Symbols reflect poor (2), adequate (o), and good (1) performance at each level of sampling intensity, based on the following cutoff values (given here as absolute values): precision, 2 [1 SD . 0.15], o [1 SD , 0.1], 1 [1 SD , 0.05]; bias, 2 [bias . 0.15], o [bias # 0.1], 1 [bias , 0.05]. note that our consideration of this index was for calculating evenness at occupied sites only, in contrast to the application of the other four indices. Below, we compare indices across all criteria. Under complete sampling, the five indices successfully characterized a broad range of distributions, but indices responded differently to the underlying degree of patchiness (Fig. 4). Our analysis of discrimination ability verified this discrepancy (Table 2), with Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices performing best. These results suggest that, prior to application, one should first consider the inherent sensitivity of each index to underlying distributions as well as its discrimination power—two points often overlooked by researchers, although their importance has been noted previously (Magurran 1988, Krebs 1999). Under incomplete random sampling, the underlying distribution influenced robustness of some indices (Dispersion, Smith-Wilson). However, three of the indices we tested (Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd) consistently characterized the underlying distribution of organisms with samples as small as 35 randomly selected sites (3.5% of 1000 sites), regardless of underlying distribution. This result, that heterogeneous spatial distributions did not affect bias in three of the indices we tested, is encouraging, and highlights the potential utility of these indices. Similar results were FIG. 7. Dot plots for five indices using actual shorebird data. Dots represent mean dispersion (and 95% confidence intervals) for four shorebird species during fall migration (August 1977) in the United States: KILL, Killdeer; REKN, Red Knot; SAND, Sanderling; SEPL, Semipalmated Plover. Mean and 95% confidence interval estimates were generated by bootstrapping actual data (105 wetlands surveyed; n 5 1000 bootstrapped replicates). April 2005 SPATIAL PATTERN AND EVENNESS INDICES attained in a parallel analysis of four overlap indices (Ricklefs and Lau 1980). If sampling is nonrandom, such that there is a tendency to sample sites with the most individuals, bias increases considerably at low to intermediate sampling intensity. The Camargo index was most robust to nonrandom sampling, providing unbiased estimates (bias # 0.1) once 40% of the sites were sampled; Simpson gave unbiased estimates once 50% of sites were sampled, and Lloyd gave unbiased estimates once 60% of sites were sampled. These results demonstrate that to produce unbiased estimates of spatial patterns using evenness indices, considerable care should be taken to ensure that sampling effort is distributed randomly across potential habitat to avoid preferentially selecting sites with large numbers of organisms. Overall, we recommend three indices—Camargo, Simpson and, Lloyd—for quantifying spatial distributions of organisms among sites. All three gave precise and unbiased estimates when at least 35 (3.5% of 1000) sites were sampled from a distribution, regardless of the underlying patchiness of the distribution. If sampling is biased towards sites with greater numbers of organisms (i.e., nonrandom sampling), none of the indices performed as well. However, Camargo generated values with the smallest bias, and estimates became unbiased at relatively smaller sample sizes. Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd indices (particularly the latter two), performed remarkably similarly despite their fundamentally different mathematical composition. In addition to the specific comparisons made above, our simulation results provide several general contributions worth noting. First, discussion of the utility of diversity and evenness indices has focused on whether indices can be used to compare community structure (as has been widely used), or if interpretation should be restricted to describing patterns in ‘‘fully censused’’ pieces of biotic space at a particular scale (Smith and Wilson 1996, Pielou 1975). Our study addresses a different, equally important component of this question. Namely, how do indices respond to variable sampling effort, when not all sites are sampled but the underlying true distribution is known? Second, most previous analyses have used highly stylized distributions to compare evenness among a handful of categories (sites; Smith and Wilson 1996, Hubalek 2000). While this approach has done much for our ability to grasp the mechanics of these indices, it remains difficult to interpret these results in a larger context. Here, we present index comparisons using 1000 sites, in which the underlying distribution ranges from individual(s) occupying few to all sites. Third, we test index behavior over a much broader set of conditions than has previously been examined, using a series of ecologically plausible distributions ranging from even to extremely patchy. Most previous analyses (e.g., Smith and Wilson 1996, Hubalek 2000) have measured evenness at occupied sites 517 only (the standard way of quantifying evenness for species diversity), and then, for more even distributions than those we consider. However, we have shown that some indices may be used more flexibly to quantify dispersion for several species among a set of sampled sites. Additionally, we formally tested the discrimination ability of these indices, so that relative differences can be interpreted in a more objective context than previously examined (i.e., as compared to Smith and Wilson’s (1996) or Hubalek’s (2000) treatment of ‘‘desirable features’’). And finally, we use field data to give an example of the utility of these indices. Shorebird data The relative differences in dispersion among the species we considered corroborate independent assessments of their biology (Table 1). All indices ranked Killdeer as the most dispersed species, followed by Semipalmated Plover, Sanderling, and Red Knot (patchiest), similar to independent findings by other researchers (Skagen et al. 1999, Harrington 2001). Furthermore, although both Sanderling and Red Knot share a preference for coastal habitat in the geographic area covered by the International Shorebird Survey (ISS; Howe et al. 1989) the fact that these species have such different spatial patterns, despite similar habitat associations, suggests important differences in their migration ecology—differences that may require a unique conservation approach at the continental scale. In this analysis, we sought to characterize and compare wetland use by four species in the broadest way possible—across hundreds of wetlands in the continental United States. We asked this question to answer one component of what conservation planners need to know—i.e., To what extent are shorebird species different in their overall use of U.S. wetlands during migration? The relatively low index values suggest that these shorebirds are relatively patchy in their use of wetlands at the continental scale in August during fall migration. Note, however, that it would be equally meaningful to characterize species’ spatial patterns among a subset of U.S. wetlands, for instance among habitats of a specific biological or management type. Under this different scenario more restricted conditions apply, and some species—particularly habitat specialists—will be considerably more dispersed than the values we generated. To test this possibility, we consider briefly a regional study from northern California (all sites within 90 km of Humboldt Bay), in which researchers surveyed shorebirds at 40 randomly selected sandy ocean beaches between January and April 1996 (Colwell and Sundeen 2000). Using their published results (the average number of individuals per beach), we computed the five indices for Sanderling, a species that prefers sandy ocean beaches (MacWhirter et al. 2002). In contrast to the relatively low index values (mean 6 95% confidence intervals) that we computed for peak fall migration at the continental scale ( DL: 518 LAURA X. PAYNE ET AL. 0.57 6 0.01; E1/D̂: 0.10 6 0.004; J: 0.09 6 0.004; Evar: 0.11 6 0.004; E9: 0.11 6 0.003, Fig. 7), Sanderlings were significantly more dispersed within a single habitat (sandy ocean beaches) during January–April in northern California (DL: 0.79 6 0.01; E1/D̂: 0.38 6 0.02; J: 0.39 6 0.02; Evar: 0.32 6 0.03; E9: 0.36 6 0.02). Although it is not surprising that a species spatial patterns may vary with the spatial and temporal extent of each question (near-continent vs. regional, multiplehabitat types vs. a single predominant habitat type, and August 1977 vs. January–April 1996), understanding such variability provides important insights for conservation planning and management. More broadly, we include results for both studies to illustrate that the indices tested in this paper may be used to quantify a range of patterns within the same system (or species), be they extremely patchy patterns such as our focal question of interest, or intermediate patterns such as those common to other ecological processes/scales. From a purely practical standpoint, the drawback of these indices is that they do not tell us everything we want to know. Whereas we can compare relative aggregation among a group of species, or dispersion trends in time, these indices do not tell us precisely how much habitat or which specific habitats are important. However, some of these factors can be determined from examination of the input data, e.g., which habitats are important, and others may be estimated through further analyses, e.g., how much habitat is required. To aid in interpretation of evenness indices, we therefore suggest computing several simple metrics as complementary summaries of spatial pattern—such as richness (the proportion of sites occupied), dominance (the proportion of individuals at the top site), and the identities of the top sites. We see these as complementary measures, not as replacement indices, since the simultaneous interpretation of multiple metrics is cumbersome—requiring at least two comparisons for every unit of information—and simpler metrics also have problems/biases of their own (e.g., site richness; see Magurran 1988). Hence, our analyses demonstrate that univariate indices, such as Camargo, Simpson, and Lloyd, can be powerful tools for characterizing broad spatial patterns of multiple species. Application of evenness indices to management and conservation Like most metrics these indices are most useful in a comparative sense, when values are interpreted relatively. With this in mind, we believe that the primary uses of these indices will be in quantifying gross differences in space use by co-occurring species, and in detecting temporal changes in space use within species, as they are subject to changing environmental conditions—such as climate conditions and availability of suitable habitat. In the former case, managers could benefit from knowing whether species that co-occur in the same habitat type, locally, use similar amounts of Ecological Applications Vol. 15, No. 2 habitat at the continental scale, and therefore how to prioritize local habitat availability to accommodate those species. In the latter case, detection of temporal changes in dispersion could inform managers in two ways. First, if some species have inconsistent habitatuse patterns (i.e., being highly aggregated in some years and dispersed in others), then conservation plans will need to be expanded to accommodate both strategies in any given year, providing many adequate sites as well as a few very high-quality wetlands. Second, trends in dispersion patterns may serve as indicators of potential population-level changes in habitat use or availability through time—such as a species that was formerly dispersed but is now becoming increasingly aggregated. This application could be useful to conservationists because population declines are extremely difficult to detect in these remote-nesting and migratory species. Finally, although it is not possible to determine unambiguously the particular processes behind the spatial patterns we observe, pattern analysis may help to reveal which processes are important (Coomes et al. 1999). For instance, relative differences in spatial pattern among species or time periods may be a result of changes in predator pressure on certain species (e.g., Lank et al. 2003) or habitat availability differences in wet/dry years (Skagen and Knopf 1994), two factors that could merit further investigation. In summary, our analyses compared five indices to identify the best ones for characterizing spatial dispersion patterns of shorebirds. While evenness indices can only provide one dimension of information for conservation planning, the ability of these indices to simplify highly complex information into simple metrics— encompassing multiple observations across space and time—should not be underestimated. While more sophisticated information may be gained through the use of spatial statistics or spatially explicit indices (e.g., Coomes et al. 1999), such approaches necessitate greater expertise (or, in the absence of expertise, time and resources) than is often available to many managers or conservation practitioners. By examining spatial patterns of multiple species, managers can begin to identify space needs of all species and to develop explicit efforts for non-aggregated species, which are currently assumed (though without evidence) to benefit from the same approaches used for aggregated species. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank B. A. Harrington, S. K. Skagen, International Shorebird Survey volunteers, and Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences for collection and use of shorebird data. A. R. Ives, L. L. Conquest, E. A. Logerwell, L. F. Keller, A. M. Kilpatrick, J. R. 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