Futu re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u th Australia s R e s o u rces I nd ustr y Fut ure E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t
Australi a’s R e s o u rce s I ndu str y Fu tu re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S out h Aust ral i a’s R e s o u rce s I nd u s t r y Fu t ur
E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y Dem and S ou t h Au s t r a l i a
R e s o u rce s I ndu s t r y Fu tu re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a nd S out h Austra l i a’s R e s o u rce s I nd ust r y Fu t u re E le c t r i c i t
D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce
I ndu str y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Austral i a’s R e s o u rce s I nd ust r y Fut ure E le c t r i c i t y D e m a n
S outh Aust ral i a’s R e s o u rces I n du str y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s tr
Futu re E le c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u th Austra li a’s R e s o u rce s I ndust r y Fut ure E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t
Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t ur
E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a
R e s o u rce s I n d u s tr y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c it
D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce
Industr y Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industr y Future Electricity Demand Sout
Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t ur
Ele c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S ou t h Austra l i a’s R e s o u rce s I nd ust r y Fut ure E le c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S ou t h Austra li a
R e s o u rce s I n d u s tr y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c it
D e m a n d S o u t h Austra l i a’s R e s o u rce s I ndu st r y Fut ure E le c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S out h Austra li a’s R e s o u rce
Industr y Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industr y Future Electricity Demand Sout
Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t ur
E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a
R e s o u rce s I n d u s tr y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c it
D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t r a l i a’s R e s o u rce
Industr y Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industr y Future Electricity Demand Sout
Australia’s Resources I n du str y Fu tu re E l ec tr i c i t y D e m a n d S o u t h Au s t ra l i a’s R e s o u rces I n du s t r y Fu t u r
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Fu t u re E l e c t r i c i t y D e m a n d
S o u t h Au s t ra l i a’s R e s o u rce s I n d u s t r y
An init iat ive o f t he Re s o urce s a nd
Ene rg y S e c to r I nf ra s t ruc t ure Co unci l
For further details please contact:
Joe Mastrangelo
Director, Resources and Energy Sectors Infrastructure Council (RESIC)
Department of Primary Industries and Resources SA
Level 16, 25 Grenfell Street Adelaide GPO Box 1671 Adelaide 5001 DX 667
P: +61 8 8226 5059
Mob: +61(0) 417 812 148
Email: [email protected]
Dr Nigel Long
Director, Environment and Sustainability
South Australian Chamber of Mines and Energy
290 Glen Osmond Road, Fullarton SA 5063
P: +61 8 8202 9999
Mob: 0448 848 038
Email: [email protected]
2 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
FUTURE ELECTRICITY DEMAND
SOUTH AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES INDUSTRY
DISCLAIMER
This document has been prepared for the South Australian Chamber of Mines and Energy (SACOME) and
the Resources & Energy Sector Infrastructure Council (RESIC) hereafter referred to as the “Parties”, as an
instrument to support the identification of infrastructure issues as they relate to South Australia’s future
mining activity.
This document is not intended to be relied upon or used for other purposes, such as investment decisions
related to further electricity generation, transmission or distribution capacity. It has been developed
using information and reports prepared by a number of third parties, which are neither endorsed nor
supported by the Parties.
Any individual proposing to use the information presented in this document should independently verify
the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information provided, as well as the reports
and other information used by the Parties in its preparation.
The Parties, its servants and officers, make no warranty as to the accuracy, currency, reliability,
completeness or suitability for particular purposes of the information in this document. The Parties, its
servants and officers accept no liability (including liability to any person by reason of negligence) for any
use of the information in this document or for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by
reason of any error, negligent act, omission or misrepresentation in the information in this document or
otherwise.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 3
4 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive summary............................................................................................................................ 7
Introduction......................................................................................................................................... 8
The purpose of this report.................................................................................................................. 9
Electricity demand survey................................................................................................................ 10
Overall electricity demand................................................................................................................ 15
Future electricity infrastructure requirements of South Australia’s resources industry..................... 19
Conclusion........................................................................................................................................ 19
Recommendations........................................................................................................................... 20
Appendix A
Realising the potential - South Australia’s strategic plan.................................................................. 21
Appendix B
SA mineral resources overview........................................................................................................ 22
Appendix C
National electricity market fundamentals.......................................................................................... 24
Appendix D
Planning for the future...................................................................................................................... 25
Appendix E
South Australia’s mining pipeline...................................................................................................... 26
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 5
6 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
South Australia has a world class geological environment. The state’s endowment in key mineral
resources, especially within the Gawler Craton geological region, (Fig 1) is now being realised and
developed. The recent growth in mining has been extraordinary; growing from four operating mines in
2000 to eleven mines in full production in 2009. A further five mines are expected to commence in 2010
taking the state’s total to sixteen.
To support this level of expansion significant planning by industry and government is essential, and not
least of these is the future demand for electricity supply and infrastructure. This paper provides a picture
of the anticipated increase in electricity demand by South Australia’s resources industry to 2020 and
beyond. It forms part of a collaborative project between RESIC, SACOME and ElectraNet to quantify the
potential increase in electricity demand and to stimulate scenario solutions.
RESIC commissioned Aurecon to facilitate an online survey targeting significant resource and
infrastructure companies to gauge their perceived infrastructure demand. The data has not been
interpreted or modified and has been used as supplied by the survey recipients. The data indicated that
the best case electricity demand for the South Australian resources sector is projected to grow seven-fold
over the next 20 years. The significant rise in this demand is influenced by BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam
expansion.
Whilst current resource projects may or may not be realised for a variety of reasons, it is prudent
to consider the potential demands arising from the growth of the resource sector, and plan for the
infrastructure required to support it. Equally the commerciality of projects could also be determined by
the availability, or otherwise, of key infrastructure. Identification of ‘clusters’ of large projected demand
may present opportunities to leverage progressive solutions through economies of scale.
Government implementation of climate change policies to create economic drivers to change the
dynamics of energy generation from fossil fuels towards low or zero-emission technologies will have
a significant impact on business. Inevitably such changes will alter the dynamics of infrastructure
investment in the National Energy Market (NEM) from the general market benefits test, which dictates
current decisions in the NEM, to encapsulate broader economic, environmental and social benefits.
Appropriately both government and industry have an important role in meeting these challenges.
Renewable energy will continue to play an increasing role in the generation of electricity. It is therefore
important to understand how these technologies may offer a solution to the future electricity demands.
SA is rich with potential, yet largely undeveloped renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal,
wave) and is well positioned to capitalise on this advantage in a carbon constrained economy. However
the remoteness of these resources means deployment is also conditional on strategic infrastructure
planning and investment.
Fundamentally potential solutions need to be considered early, and strategies developed to ensure
secure, adequate, reliable and economically efficient energy is supplied to support the growth of the
sector and the State.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 7
INTRODUCTION
The South Australian Government is committed to supporting the continued growth of the resources
sector. This support has been set out within the framework of the South Australian Strategic Plan 2007 –
(relevant excerpt in Appendix A), the Economic Development Board’s Economic Statement 2009 and the
South Australian Infrastructure Plan (2005-2009).
Over the next two decades, mining investment and the number of operating mines are expected to grow
substantially across the state. (Appendix B).
In mid-2009, RESIC and SACOME initiated an infrastructure demand study through Aurecon. Data was
sought on the perceived demands for water, gas, road, rail and telecommunications. A priority of the
study was to examine and determine the future electricity generation, transmission and distribution
infrastructure requirements for the resources and energy sectors in South Australia.
The outcome presented in this report is based on the estimated electricity usage and source over four
time periods extending to 2020 and beyond from the 29 participating resource companies. The data has
not been interpreted or modified and has been used as supplied by the survey recipients.
South Australia’s electricity infrastructure is located along its populated coast-line having limited
coverage of mining clusters. South Australia is also integrated into the national electricity and gas market
operated by Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). A brief explanation of the National Electricity
Market (NEM) is outlined in Appendix C.
The main drivers of investment in electricity generation and infrastructure are:
●● Demand growth,
●● Asset replacement and refurbishment,
●● Need to meet regulated service standards, and
●● Climate change policies.
Electricity is one of the largest input costs of mine operation expenditure, accounting at times for up to
40% of operational costs. The supply of competitive, adequate, secure and reliable electricity is therefore
an essential enabler for the future growth and sustainability of the sector.
The remoteness of most mines from the national grid and the high cost of infrastructure can make
electricity connection via the grid uneconomic limiting power supply options to distributed generators.
Each individual project will select the best electricity supply solution having regard to a range of factors
including installation and operating costs, and the financial risk of unproven, alternate technologies.
General and current economic commentary indicates that Australia’s economy will continue to grow
for the foreseeable future. Much of this will be due to the continued strong demand for resources from
China as well as future mineral demand from countries such as India and South Korea.
The strong foundation and growth potential of the resources industry in South Australia requires
careful consideration of infrastructure needs if the state’s potential is to be realised and new electricity
generation, whether it be renewable, distributed or connected to the electricity grid, will be required to
supply future mining projects.
Quantifying this demand and determining the time frame of response is the first step in identifying
potential solutions and priorities.
1 RESIC is responsible for providing advice to the South Australian Government on matters relating to complex
infrastructure issues that contribute to the sustained growth of the resources and energy sector.
2 SACOME is the peak industry association for the minerals and energy sectors in South Australia promoting the social
and economic development of the state through the Resources Sector.
8 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT
Through the identification and analysis of resources sector ‘clusters’ within the State it may be possible
to ascertain the common electricity infrastructure required by the companies within the precinct, rather
than individual users.. By amortising costs across a number of mines located within identified clusters,
the commercial viability of mining projects could be improved through lower operating and capital costs
than would otherwise be achieved.
This could potentially open up opportunities for new electricity generators and transmission
infrastructure providers to service “nearby” mines in a radial type arrangement, which may or may not be
connected to the grid
This work does not challenge the existing regulatory framework which is modelled on the deregulated
“user pays” system.
Renewable energy may play an increasing role in the generation of electricity, fuelled by policy
mechanisms designed to transition Australia’s economy to a low carbon base. It is therefore important to
understand how these technologies may offer a solution to future electricity demands of the resources
sector.
The demand analysis presented in this report may help to answer the following key challenges:
●● Projects that have not yet identified their source of future power supply.
●● Solutions to convert diesel/gas generation on existing on new or existing mine operations to the grid;
and
●● Emerging trends in electricity transmission technology that may change the forecasted profile of grid
connection verses on-site generation by 2020.
RESIC and SACOME provided ElectraNet with the infrastructure demand study for their analysis of future
supply scenarios with respect to generation and transmission infrastructure solutions.
ElectraNet’s study was to highlight risks to the resources sector and to provide information on economic,
technical and regulatory issues that may impede development of the required supply infrastructure.
National energy planning is now the responsibility of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
State planning, which was previously performed by the Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council
(ESIPC), is now the responsibility of ElectraNet as the new jurisdictional planner.
Both the infrastructure demand study and ElectraNet’s supply information paper, Future Electricity
Infrastructure Requirements of South Australia’s Resources Industry, will inform the 2009/10 planning
processes of:
●● SACOME, and its industry members;
●● Relevant Government departments such as DPC (Renewable SA), PIRSA, DTED and DTEI;
●● RESIC;
●● AEMO and
●● Infrastructure providers such as ElectraNet.
Given the anticipated increased demand for electricity by the resources sector, the long lead times for
establishing mine operations and the development of the required infrastructure, it is important that
holistic planning solutions are considered and progressed. (Appendix D).
The results of this planning will provide a common understanding of the issues and therefore will assist to
facilitate the necessary collaboration between key stakeholders.
This report, and ElectraNet’s response, are important elements in contributing to the work of the Energy
Policy Working Group of SACOME and in influencing industry policy on electricity security and reliability
in South Australia in the context of Australia’s climate change policy as the economy transitions to a low
carbon base.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 9
ELECTRICITY DEMAND SURVEY
In August, 2009, RESIC commissioned Aurecon to conduct an online survey of targeted resource and
infrastructure companies. Companies were selected on the basis of being either mining projects or
operating mines. Companies currently undertaking exploration or indicating prospects were not
contacted. (Appendix E).
The survey sought to collect data on seven forms of infrastructure (power, gas, water, rail, road, ports,
telecommunications) over four time periods (1-2 years (2010-2011), 3-5 years (2012-2014), 6-10 years
Figure 1 Geological Provinces of South Australia.
MUSGRAVE PROVINCE
"
)
Marla
Oodnadatta
"
)
Moomba
Lake
Eyre
"
)
"
)
Coober Pedy
GAWLER CRATON
EUCLA BASIN
Olympic Dam
"
)
Leigh Creek
"
)
AD E L
"
)
NCLIN
Port Augusta
EOSY
ner
i rd
Ga
Ceduna
Lake
Frome
CURNAMONA
PROVINCE
G
AIDE
s
e
Lak
re n
STUART
SHELF
Tor
Tarcoola
e
Lak
"
)
"
)
E
MURRAY
BASIN
Port Lincoln
"
)
0
100
ADELAIDE
200 Kilometres
"
)
Mount Gambier
10 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
PIRSA 203871_001
"
)
2015-219) and beyond 10 years (>2020)). Data from the survey was used to produce GIS maps detailing
where the essential infrastructure demand is indicated for the resources and energy sectors in the state.
Twenty three of the twenty nine resources companies surveyed responded (79 %), while sixteen of the 18
infrastructure companies responded (86%). Refer Table 1 – Survey Data of Resources Companies.
The projects were grouped under recognised geological regions as defined by the Department of Primary
Industries and Resources SA (PIRSA) Division of Minerals and Energy Resources. They are the Gawler
Craton, Adelaide Geosyncline, Curnamona Province, Murray Basin and Eucla Basin,
The following information was extracted from the Infrastructure Demand Study. Included with other
data, the survey provided an overview of predicted electricity demand by region, and is the focus of this
report.
Gawler Craton
The survey responses indicated that power demands for the region over the next 1 to 2 years (2010-2011)
is anticipated to be approximately 200 MW. Over the period 2012-2014 the consolidation of resource
projects including Altona Energy, Stellar Resources, Ironclad Mining, Centrex Metals, and BHP Billiton’s
Olympic Dam expansion, will increase power demand in the region to 709 MW. Demand will then
continue to increase to 1,291 MW for 6 to 10 years (2015-2019) and further to 1,896 MW looking beyond
10 years (>2020).
Approximately 50% of the projects’ power demand has been identified as an unknown source with the
other 50% sourced mainly by onsite generators with only Ironclad Mining, OneSteel and Lincoln Minerals
utilising the grid network.
BHP Billiton has indicated that its current power demand is approximately 100 MW, which is reflected in
the survey. However, they have indicated that subject to government approvals and the expansion of
Olympic Dam they will require an additional 450 MW by 2015.
Altona Energy indicated that its Arckaringa Coal to Liquids and Power Project will be self sufficient in
power and fuel, generating a total of 1120 MW p.a. when the project is fully developed. The survey
results reflect 560MW pa of demand which will be met by its project and hence it is anticipated that the
remaining 560MW will be available for the grid. A decision to proceed with the project is dependent on
the conclusion of the feasibility study in 2011.
Figure 2 Gawler Craton – power demand and source.
2000
Source Unknown
1500
Grid
Power Demand
1000
(MW)
Generators
500
0
2010-11 2012-14 2015-19
Time Period
> 2020
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 11
Table 1 Survey data of resources companies.
Company Name
Mining Region Project Title
Centrex Metals Ltd
Gawler Craton Sheep Hill Port
Centrex Metals Ltd
Bungalow Magnetite
Centrex Metals Ltd
Charleton Gully
Magnetite Deposit
Carrow Magnetite
Deposit
Centrex Metals Ltd
Mine Location
Annual Power
Consumption (Mw)
2010-11 2012-14 2015-19 > 2020 Sheep Hill
0
5
5
5
Generator (onsite) 100 %
NE Eyre Peninsula 9km
NNW and 16km N of Cowell
Charleton Gully
0
0
50
50
Generator (onsite) 100 %
0
0
50
50
Generator (onsite) 100 %
0
0
50
50
Generator (onsite) 100 %
0.1
2
50
150
25
5
15
5
15
27
5
27
2.5
2.5
2.5
0
2.5
2.5
0
0
2.5
3.5
3.5
0
2
8
12
12
0
0
80
150
0
5
50
50
35
40
45
45
0
0
0
0
0
45
276
552
Generator (onsite) 100 %
125
575
575
750
Not Provided
200
709
1291
1896
100
100
0
0
100
100
0
0
Carrow
Ironclad Mining Ltd
Wilcherry Hill
40 kms North of Kimba
OneSteel Ltd
Whyalla
Whyalla
Lincoln Minerals Ltd
Gum Flat
20km W of Port Lincoln
Centrex Metals Ltd
Wilgerup
Dominion Mining Ltd
Challenger Gold Mine
Western Plains
Resources Ltd
IMX Resources Ltd
Peculiar Knob
30kms SE of Lock on Eyre Peninsula
150KM SW from Coober Pedy
90km Southeast of Coober Pedy
50KM SE Coober Pedy
Stellar Resources
Ltd
Minotaur Exploration
Ltd
OZ Minerals Ltd
Tarcoola Iron Ore
Project
Tunkillia
Sth of Tarcoola
Prominent Hill
Coober Pedy
Nyrstar Ltd
Port Pirie
Altona Energy Plc
Arckaringa CTL and
Power Project
Olympic Dam Operation
Port Pirie - mining from
Broken Hill
100 km north of Coober
Pdedy
16 km north of Roxby
Downs
Cairn Hill
BHP Billiton Ltd
Power Source
Tarcoola
Grid - 100 %
Grid - 80 % /
Generator (onsite) 20 %
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Not Provided
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Not Provided
Not Provided
Perilya Freehold
Mining Ltd
Adelaide
Geosyncline
Flinders
Petratherm Ltd
Curnamona
Province
Paralana Geothermal
Project
45 km Northeast of
Arkaroola, 12 km East of
Beverley Uranium mine
0
14
120
240
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Heathgate
Resources
Beverley Four Mile
Project
about 200km east of Leigh Creek
4
4
4
4
Perilya Ltd
Broken Hill
Broken Hill
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Havilah Ltd
Kalkaroo
Kalkaroo
0
0
0
0
Not Provided
Exco resources Ltd
White Dam Gold Project
Olary
0
0
0
0
0.75
0
0
0
Not Provided
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Total 4.75
18
124
244
6
6
6
0
Grid - 90 % /
Generator (onsite) 10 %
3
3
3
3
Grid - 100 %
Hillgrove Copper
Ltd
Murray Basin
Kanmantoo
Australian Zircon
NL Ltd
Terramin Australia
Ltd
Energy Exploration Eucla Basin
Ltd
Minotaur Exploration
Ltd
Iluka Resources Ltd
Total
Grid - 100 %
Leigh Creek
Total
Kanmantoo (Mine site ~
3km SW)
Mindarie
50 km SW Loxton
Angas Zinc Mine
Strathalbyn
Lock Energy Project
Poochera Kaolin Project
Jacinth - Ambrosia
Total
10 kms west of Lock,
central Eyre Peninsula
10km SW from Poochera
200 km N-W of Ceduna
Total
12 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
Grid - 50 % /
Generator (onsite) 50 %
2
2
0
0
Grid - 100 %
11
11
9
3
0
0
0
0
Not Provided
0
5
20
30
Grid - 100 %
8
8
8
8
8
13
28
38
Generator (onsite) 100 %
Adelaide Geosyncline
Total power demand reported for the region was within the minimal range of 0 to 200 MW p.a. with a mid
point demand of 100 MW over 2010-2014. Perilya provided this power demand for their Flinders Project.
Perilya Freehold Mining’s Leigh Creek Project has a mine life of 3 to 5 years.
Figure 3 Adelaide Geosyncline – power demand and source.
100
80
Grid
Power Demand
(MW)
60
Generators
40
20
0
2010-11
2012-14
2015-19
> 2020
Time Period
Curnamona Province
The power demands forecasted for the region over 2010-2011 is approximately 5 MW increasing to
18 MW for 2012-2014 and to approximately 124 MW for 2015-2019 before increasing further to 244 MW
as reflected in Figure 4.
Figure 4 Curnamona Province – power demand and source.
250
200
Power Demand
(MW)
Generators
150
100
50
0
2010-11
2012-14
2015-19
> 2020
Time Period
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 13
Power Supply
A number of the companies within the Curnamona Province provided additional information in
relation to the potential future supply of power. This information has been detailed to provide some
understanding of the companies’ planned infrastructure and potential supply for the region.
Petratherm Limited and Heathgate Resources have indicated that they will be sourcing their power from
onsite generators while they establish their operations. Petratherm Limited indicated they will then
become self dependent as they become geothermal power producers. The amount of 240MW in time
zone >2020 is shown as a demand in Figure 4.
Petratherm provided detail of potential developments that may assist with facilitating the power demand
over the four time periods. These developments are:
The initial generation of 3.75 MW and 7.5 MW of power for the Beverly Uranium Mine. This is to increase
to approximately 30 MW by 2014 – 15. By 2018-19 Petratherm expects to be generating 260 MW into the
national grid via a new line from Innamincka to Port Augusta.
Petratherm Limited anticipates a new 275kV line will be built from Innamincka to Port Augusta via
Paralana. The date for this is unknown
Geodynamics did not indicate any power demand, as it saw itself as a power provider of 500MW by
approximately 2015. This is not shown in Figure 4.
Geodynamics plans also include construction of a transmission Line (size not provided) from the Cooper
Basin to the national grid by no later than 2015.
Eucla Basin
This region is forecasting power demands (installed Load) of 8 MW for 2010-2011 then increasing to 13
MW for 2012-2014, 28 MW for 2015-2019 and 38 MW beyond 2020 (Figure 5). Energy Exploration Limited
did not provide clarification of data.
The power demands for the region will be sourced via the grid network and generators onsite
Figure 5 Eucla Basin – power demand and source.
40
35
30
Grid
25
Generators
Power Demand
20
(MW)
15
10
5
0
2010-11
2012-14
2015-19
Time Period
14 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
> 2020
Murray Basin
The power demands for the region is forecasted at 11 MW for 2010-2014 before decreasing to 9 MW
for 2015-2019 and 3 MW looking beyond 2020 due to the operations of Hillgrove Copper and Terramin
Australia ceasing (Figure 6).
The most utilised source of power for the region is the grid network supplying approximately 95% of the
power demands with the remaining 5% supplied by onsite generators
Figure 6 Murray Basin – power demand and source.
12
10
Power Demand
(MW)
8
Grid
6
Generators
4
2
0
2010-11
2012-14
2015-19
> 2020
Time Period
OVERALL ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Based on the survey responses, the anticipated demand for electricity is estimated to increase
substantially by a factor of seven over the next 10 years increasing from approximately 323MW to
2181MW (Figure 7).
Figure 8 (Forecasted Peak Power Demand for the SA Resources Sector) illustrates the company survey
responses for electricity demand over the four time periods.
It is considered that both the quantity and rate of demand growth shown in Figure 7 is not representative
of what will be required. The demand appears to be rather optimistic when compared to historical
growth trends. Further analysis is required to validate and assess the accuracy of the data to determine
the validity of the stated demand.
The significant level of demand where no source of supply has been identified is an issue that also
requires further investigation by RESIC and key stakeholders. Of particular relevance will be the need to
identify possible solutions for the 615MW of electricity required by 2012-14.
While grid connection is currently one source of electricity supply to mining operations, the forecast
electricity requirements in 2020 is anticipated to remain largely from distributed generation (Table 2).
To appropriately interpret the data presented in Figure 7 and Table 2 the following clarifications should
be noted on the basis of the response provided by the survey participants:
●● The forecasted demand for electricity over the 2010-11 period includes the existing demand of BHP
Billiton’s Olympic Dam operation which is currently supplied through the national electricity grid. After
2011 the increase in load from the expansion of Olympic Dam will place new demands on the system
requiring additional generation and network infrastructure to maintain a stable system.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 15
●● From 2012 both Altona Energy and Petratherm submitted projected increases in electricity demand
with the development of their respective projects (Table 1). The demand from Altona Energy’s
Arckaringa project will be fully met by on-site generation fuelled by syngas produced as part of the CTL
process. As already discussed, this on-site generation will provide excess electricity to the projects’ own
requirements enabling 560MW to be exported into the national electricity market. This opportunity
will depend on the feasibility of deploying transmission infrastructure between the Arckaringa
operation and the electricity grid, and the market frameworks established with in the NEM to facilitate
network extensions to remote locations.
●● The demand figures provided by Petratherm for their Paralana geothermal project reflect the increase
in total generating capacity of the project to 2020. The operation will be self sufficient for all on-site
electricity demand.
Table 2 Forecast of future electricity demand of South Australia’s resources industry.
SOURCE (MW)
2010-11
2012-14
2015-19
>2020
Generator used on site
73.85
149.1
637
1026.4
Grid Connection
89.5
86.4
115
209.6
Electricity Supply Source – Not provided
160
615
700
945
323.35
850.5
1452
2181
Total SA Demand
Figure 7 Forecasted peak power demand for the SA resource sector.
2500
2000
Source Not Provided
Grid
1500
Power Demand
(MW)
1000
Generators
500
0
2010 - 11
2012 - 14
2015 - 19
Time Period
16 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
beyond
2020
Fig. 8 GIS Forecasted Peak Power Demand for SA Resources Sector.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 17
18 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
FUTURE ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS OF SOUTH
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES INDUSTRY
The anticipated increase in demand for electricity to support new mining operations coincides with
climate change policy at both the State and Federal levels. These initiatives will define the way electricity
is generated to meet low emission and renewable energy targets.
The South Australian Government has renewable energy and carbon reduction targets outlined the
South Australian Strategic Plan (SASP) set to be achieved at 33% by 2020.
These objectives exceed those of the Federal Government’s 20% Renewable Energy Target.
In addressing the demands for power in the resources sector, the opportunities for the deployment of
renewable energy to match the demand should be considered. In doing so, the supply of reliable and
secure electricity and economic efficiency will determine whether they represent a feasible option.
ElectraNet’s information paper ‘Future Electricity Infrastructure Requirements of South Australia’s
Resources Industry’ has raised the following issues:
●● Least-cost augmentation, taking into account levels of potential demand, distance from grid and mine
life
●● Opportunities for Scalable Efficient Network Extension (SENE) to leverage network connection for
users.
●● Identification of where renewable energy generation could meet mining electricity demand
●● Identification of where grid and renewable energy solutions are uneconomic and the only option is
distributed generation
●● Highlight futuristic (beyond the 2030 timeframe) technologies for electricity supply (generation or
transmission)
CONCLUSION
The forecast growth in mining projects and the promising future economic benefit to the state is
significant. Planning for this growth over the next 10-20 years is critical. One of the significant cost
drivers to mining operations is electricity costs.
In order to capitalise on this opportunity and reduce where possible the potential risks to investors,
mining project costs need to be minimised and this initiative aims to facilitate creative and innovative
solutions. A significant number of project proponents were unable to specify the likely source of
electricity and a key outcome will be to assist industry to identify potential sources.
Innovative thinking and planning will assist the South Australian Government and Industry to meet the
Minerals Industry SASP Targets: T1.17, T1.18, T1.19 and state export target T1.14, consolidating South
Australia’s position in the top ten of the Fraser Institute Mineral Potential ranking.
The infrastructure demand study has indicated that the demand for electricity from the resources
industry has the potential to increase seven-fold within the next decade. The concentration of this
demand is in the Gawler Craton region.
The next 20 years may see a major shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy generation. This
transition presents some significant challenges and opportunities for South Australia. The promotion
and development of partnerships resulting from future electricity demand from the expansion in the
resources sector and renewable sources of electricity should be explored and encouraged.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 19
RECOMMENDATIONS
1.Continued consultation with ElectraNet to ascertain their outlook on the potential generation and transmission infrastructure options in response to the identified electricity demands, and also to
consider the economic, financial and technological barriers that may require further work.
The remoteness of most operating mines and developing projects from the national electricity
grid necessarily means any network solution would require high voltage connections over long
distances. ElectraNet is the transmission network service provider (TNSP) for South Australia. In the
context of identifying and planning potential network solutions to future electricity demand of the
resources sector, the company’s expertise and regulated function as the TNSP makes this consultation
appropriate and necessary.
2.Inform study participants and other key stakeholders of the findings and future directions arising from
the electricity demand profile for the resource industry contained in the infrastructure demand study.
3.To engage, identify and support collaborative opportunities for future action with key stakeholders
who will be provided with ElectraNet’s response to this report.
20 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
APPENDIX A
REALISING THE POTENTIAL - SOUTH AUSTRALIA’S STRATEGIC PLAN
A strategic goal for the South Australian Government is to facilitate the continued development and
investment in the resource and energy sectors, facilitating employment creation, increase in export
income and the broader economic benefit for South Australia.
The Minerals Industry has four specific SASP targets to achieve within the next five years with the purpose
of achieving and expanding industry:
1. Mineral exploration (T1.17) — Mineral exploration expenditure in South Australia to be
maintain in excess of $100m per annum until 2010.
Progress: Mineral Exploration expenditure totalled $220.7m for 2007-08, more than doubling the
target. It is acknowledged that the previous exploration cycle (2005-2009) will reduce considerably
(from a high of $355m in 2007/08) over the next few years, before stabilising over the medium term, as
expectations for global growth improve. Nevertheless, given the current uncertainties, a balanced, yet
optimistic target of maintaining an exploration spend above $200m per annum over 2010-2015 will be
targeted.
2. Mineral production (T1.18) — Increase the value of minerals production to $3b by 2014.
Progress: Mineral production for 2008-09 totalled $2.87 billion and is therefore well on the way to
meeting the target.
3. Mineral processing (T1.19) — Increase the value of minerals processing to $1b by 2014
Progress: Mineral refinement value was $1.2b for 2007–08 exceeding the T1.19 target.
In addition the Minerals Industry is expected to contribute significantly to state exports:
4. Total state exports (T1.14.) — treble the value of South Australia’s export income to $25b by
2014.
Progress: The total export figure for Minerals in 2008-09 was $2.74 billion. Minerals have become an
increasingly significant contributor to state exports comprising almost one third (29%) of total state
exports compared with just 13% only 5 years ago.
Private mineral exploration activity is a key lead indicator and driver of future production. Since 2000
the level of investment and development in exploration and mining has grown rapidly, facilitated
by government promotion and support, the inherent prospectivity of the state and fuelled by high
commodity prices.
This has led to the current expansionary phase of mining in SA, with over thirty new or expanding
mining projects in scoping, approval or development stage.
The SASP targets discussed here will be reviewed within the next year and new targets to 2020 are
expected to be developed.
Work has commenced on modelling mineral production data for the 2020 targets. Gross mineral
production is widely used as a key measure of output for the minerals sector. The value of mineral
production is measured at the mine gate and covers both raw and processed commodities.
The growth in SA Mineral Production Value is estimated to treble over the next 10 years to ~ $10 billion
(PIRSA study in progress). However, given that electricity costs make up roughly 40% of the operating
costs of a mining project, the forecasted mineral production growth will only be made possible if South
Australia can offer investors low electricity costs.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 21
APPENDIX B
SA MINERAL RESOURCES OVERVIEW4
South Australia is a world class geological environment and is highly regarded internationally as a mineral
province with excellent exploration potential. At 2009, South Australia has 11 operating mines producing
copper, gold, uranium, iron ore, coal, heavy mineral sands, zinc, lead and silver. The Moomba gas fields
which began production in the 1960’s continue to supply significant volumes of gas, crude oil and gas
liquids. The state remains highly prospective for these minerals, as well as oil and gas, and geothermal
energy. Notably, South Australia is a major producer of uranium and hosts approximately 40% of the
world’s known recoverable uranium reserves. The uranium potential of South Australia and the growing
concern over global energy security positions the state to gain strategic significance, and the enormous
economic opportunities it presents, as the world enters a period of energy transition.
The government continues to progress mineral project approvals and South Australia has developed a
reputation amongst miners as one of the best jurisdictions in the world for exploring, developing and
mining.
The Fraser Institute continues to confirm the performance of South Australia’s mining sector as
amongst the best in the world. According to the respected Canadian institution’s annual survey of
mining companies (footnote with web address), South Australia has consistently ranked in the top ten
jurisdictions in the world in terms of mineral potential.
The 2008 KPMG report on the costs of doing business in cities across the world shows Adelaide has
maintained its number one position within Australia, having the lowest business cost (compared to
Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane). Again highlighting the confidence investors have to invest in South
Australia.
South Australia is strategically placed at the junction of Australia’s road, rail and air corridors. This
geographic advantage is now enhanced by the Adelaide to Darwin railway, which has created trade
links to Asia. This excellent access to transport infrastructure contributes directly to the improved export
performance of the state.
The South Australian Government is committed to supporting the continued growth of the Resources
Sector, particularly in the highly prospective Gawler Craton. Over the next two decades, mining
investment and outputs are expected to grow substantially across the state. The success of the South
Australian Government’s Plan for Accelerating Exploration (PACE) initiative which commenced in 2004 has
seen expenditure on mineral exploration in the State rise from $30.9 million in 2004 to $355.2 million at
its peak in 2007-08.
The Resources Industry in South Australia has become the cornerstone of the state’s social and economic
growth. This has been founded on strong employment opportunities and the value to total exports.
The sector also contributes $84.8 million (2008-09) to the state economy in the form of royalties to
government.
The outlook for the South Australian resources sector remains positive as the known resources are
extensive and very competitive. The diversity of our resource base, the number of recent discoveries of
world class ore bodies, and South Australia’s global reputation as a good place for investment in mining
all bode well for a durable resources sector in our State.
However, given the strong foundation and growth potential of the South Australian resources sector
careful consideration of infrastructure needs is necessary if the potential is to be realised. Electricity
supply and infrastructure to meet the increasing demand for energy is one strategic element, and
the focus of this paper. In addition to achieving Mineral Production targets, it is also a stated goal of
government to remain among the top 10 global mining locations according to the Fraser Institute’s
Mineral Potential Ranking. Lower electricity costs and reliable supply will improve that ranking, drawing
more investment to the state of South Australia as a result.
4 Department of Primary Industries and Resources SA
22 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
Geothermal exploration
The South Australian Government is leading Australia with expeditious and effective processing of
activity approvals for geothermal energy, and the last few years have seen a rush for licences to explore a
variety of geothermal energy plays.
In August 2004 a change in policy enabled over-the-counter applications for geothermal exploration
licences (GELs) to be accepted on lands anywhere in the entire state, except over current GELs or lands
excluded from exploration (e.g. certain parks). This triggered enormous growth in the number of GELs
and GEL applications (GELAs) in South Australia, from 3 in August 2004 to 273 on 31 December 2008,
covering 127,683 km2.
Whilst not all may eventuate, the aggregate investment for guaranteed and non-guaranteed research
(exploration), proof of concept (appraisal) and demonstration (pilot development) in these 273 GELs
and GELAs is estimated to be in excess of $870m for the 12-year term 2002–13, and that tally excludes
deployment projects.
Geothermal has the potential to generate significant base load electricity for the resources sector and
Australian market.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 23
APPENDIX C
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS5
De-regulation of energy markets in the 1990’s and privatisation of the South Australian energy supply
industry has fundamentally changed the role of industry and government in the provision of energy to
consumers. Where once government was responsible for planning and funding energy infrastructure
developments, it is now private investment guided by the market opportunities which determine
delivery of essential energy assets.
The National Electricity Market (NEM), established in 1998, is the wholesale market for the supply of
electricity to the eastern states of Australia, Tasmania and South Australia. The NEM is operated by the
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) which also has responsibility for long-term planning through
demand and supply constraint forecasting, grid system capability and scenario analysis.
The Electricity Statement of Opportunity (ESOO) published by AEMO provides information to the market
on future need for generating capacity, demand side capacity and augmentation to the network to
support the operation of the NEM, and is the basis for existing and potential market participants to
develop capital investment plans.
AEMO and ElectraNet planning considers confirmed contracted demand as well as known potential
future demand and supply projections. For example, BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam expansion is not
contracted, but potential future demand for the project is quantifiable and therefore included in
planning.
In its role as the National Transmission planner, AEMO will also publish the National Transmission
Network Development Plan which outlines the long-term, efficient development of the electricity system,
including future and current capability of the national transmission network and development options.
AEMO operates within a broader market governance structure alongside the Australian Energy Market
Commission (AEMC) and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER). The AEMC determines the policy
environment and governance structures that shape the development of Australia’s energy markets and
which set the operating requirements and obligations of market participants (National Electricity Law
and Rules). The AER oversees economic regulation and compliance with the National Electricity Law
and Rules. The AEMC is responsible to the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) through the MCE,
while the AER is accountable to the Commonwealth Government as a constituent entity of the Australian
Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).
A grid solution to the potential future demands of the resources sector in South Australia would need to
fit within the NEM regulatory framework.
5 This explanation is only brief and very high level. For those interested, a fuller description is available in the Electricity
Supply Industry Planning Council Annual Planning Report for 2009.
24 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry
APPENDIX D
PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE
The Government of South Australia has actively prepared and supported the development of various
strategic plans to guide the growth and prosperity of the State.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan, the Economic Development Board (EDB) – Economic Statement and
the South Australian Infrastructure Plan provide the high level strategic objectives to deliver the states
economic, social and environmental priorities.
The goal of the EDB Economic Statement is “to capture the emerging economic opportunities, make
South Australia the most competitive place in which to invest and operate a business in Australasia and
secure a genuine social dividend, while ensuring that the State is ever more environmentally sustainable”.
The need for maintaining a robust program of infrastructure planning and investment is a common
theme and consensus. Infrastructure development, including energy infrastructure, will be critical to
realising and sustaining the growth of South Australia’s mineral and energy resource endowment.
Solutions to meet the increased electricity demand of the resources sector will be influenced by variables
such as mine life, distance from grid, electricity requirements, and budget profile. Not all mining projects
can be or need to be connected to the national electricity grid. For example a project distant to the grid
that can only bare low capital expenditure but is able to sustain a higher operating expenditure once
production commences may be best served by distributed generation. In contrast, where a project
business case allows a higher capital expenditure on electricity and therefore connection to the grid, the
project would naturally attract lower operating cost.
The changing dynamics of electricity generation and supply, inevitable with a transformation to a carbon
constrained economy, makes South Australia well placed to capitalise on its unique natural advantages in
solar, wind, wave and geothermal energy, and to establish itself as Australia’s leading clean energy state.
Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry 25
APPENDIX E
South Australia’s Mining Pipeline
February 2010
MAJOR
MINES
#
#
Olympic Dam (Cu-U-Au-Ag)
#
*Prominent Hill (Cu-Au)
Middleback Ranges (Iron Ore)
#
*Challenger (Au)
Jacinth-Ambrosia (HM)
Beverley (U3O8)
Leigh Creek (Coal Mine)
*Angas (Pb-Zn)
Beltana (Zn)
*Honeymoon (U3O8)
Cairn Hill (Fe3O4)
White Dam (Au)
* PACE CO-FUNDED
#
MINE EXPANSION
PROJECTS
Arckaringa (CLT)
Beverley North/South (U3O8)
*Bird-in-Hand (Au)
*Bramfield (Fe3O4)
*Carrapateena(Cu-Au)
Crocker Well (U3O8)
Flinders Zinc (Zn)
*Four-Mile (U3O8)
FuturGas (CTL)
Gum Flat (Fe2O3)
Hawks Nest (Fe2O3)
Hillside (Cu)
*Kalkaroo (Cu-Au-Mo)
*Kanmantoo (Cu-Au-Ag)
*Menninnie Dam (Pb-Zn-Ag)
Mt Gee (U3O8)
Mutooroo (Cu-Co)
Mullaquana (U3O8)
Oban (U3O8)
Peculiar Knob (Fe2O3)
Poochera (Kaolin)
Port Wakefield (CTL)
*Portia (Au)
Tripitaka (HM)
*Tunkillia (HM)
Warramboo (Fe3O4)
Wilcherry Hill (Fe3O4)
Wilgerup (Fe2O3)
* PACE CO-FUNDED
PROSPECTS
*Alvey (Pt, Pd)
*Alford East (Cu, Au)
Aristarchus (Ni)
*Baggy Green (Au)
*Barns (Au)
Black Hills (Au)
Blinman (Cu)
*Blue Rose (Cu, Au)
Bungalow (Fe3O4)
Burra (Cu)
*Chianti (Cu, Au)
*Charlinga (Cu, U3O8)
*Churchill Dam (Cu, Au)
*Claude Hills (Ni)
*Coolybring (Fe3O4)
Cultana (Cu, Au, U3O8)
*Dromedary (HM)
Emmie Bluff (Cu)
PROSPECTS
Anomalous drillhole intersections, and/or
geochemistry and geophysics.
Eurelia (diamonds)
*Faugh a Ballagh (Cu, Au)
Garford (U3O8)
Giffen Well (Fe2O3)
*Glensea (Cu, Au, Ag, U3O8)
Golf Bore (Au)
Goulds Dam (U3O8)
*Gullivers (HM)
Hunters Dam (Pb, Zn)
Junction Dam (U3O8)
Kalabity (Cu, Zn, Ag)
Kalabity (U3O8)
*Kangaroo Dam (Pt, Pd, Au)
Kapunda (Cu)
Lock (Coal)
Lorenzo (Au, As, Bi)
Mainwood (Au)
*Malache (Zn, Pb, Ag)
*Marathon South (Cu, Au)
Mongalata (Au)
Monsoon (Au)
*Moonta (Cu)
*Mt Caroline (Ni, Cu, Pt, Pd)
Mt Christie Siding (Cr2O3)
*Mulyungarie (U3O8)
Narlaby (U3O8)
*Netley Hill (Cu, Mo)
North Mulga (U3O8)
Oak Dam (Cu, Au)
*Oakdale (VHM, Zn, Cu)
Parndana (Pb, Zn)
*Parkinson Dam (Ag, Zn, Cu, Au)
Princess Royal (Cu)
*Prospect Hill (Sn)
Punt Hill (Cu, Au)
*Stony Hill (Fe2O3)
PROJECTS
JORC Resource. Possibly undertaking or have
completed feasibility studies. Possibly progressing
through final mine approvals stage.
Sturt/Nardoo (Ni, Cr)
*Titan (Cu, Au)
Torrens South JV (Cu, Au)
Typhoon (HM)
Typhoon (Au)
Waddikee (Mn)
Watson (U3O8)
Warrior (U3O8)
Wheal Ellen (Zn, Pb, Ag)
*White Hill (Ni, Cu, PGE’s)
Weednanna (Pb, Zn, Ag, Cu, Au)
Wirrda (Cu, Au)
*Wynbring (U3O8)
Yalpoudnie (Cu, U3O8)
Yaninee (U3O8)
*Yarramba (U3O8)
Yarranna (U3O8)
* PACE CO-FUNDED
MAJOR MINES
Operating or under construction.
203878
26 Future Electricity Demand South Australia’s Resources Industry